Category Archives: college football

This Week in College Football: Week 10

Introducing “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically every day of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Bowling Green @ Buffalo (ESPN2): This is probably an elimination game for getting 6-6, in this battle of 3-5 MAC teams. Though both sport negative scoring margins in MAC play, Buffalo has allowed its collegues to outscore them by over a touchdown per game and has one less conference win. I’ll go with BGSU here.

Thursday
7:30:

  • Virginia Tech @ East Carolina (ESPN): This ECU team certainly isn’t terrible, but in their other BCS-conference matchups versus WVU and UNC, they lost by a combined 29 points. VPI should be able to take care of business here.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): Northern Illinois sits at 5-3 and needs only a win against the second worst team in major college football to get it. And they should.

Friday
8:00: Boise State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN2): Well, LaTech almost beat Idaho last weekend but fell a point short. Of course, they also fell two points short of Utah State, which provided the Aggie’s first win over a DI-A team this year. So, uh, I have to say I like Boise here.

Bowl Predictions 2009: Week 3

Predictions here! Get your predictions here!

Before I do my usual thing, let me just say that for starters, this is every bowl eligible team. Keep in mind that there will be 2 or 3 new games next year. (Though with some of the matchups that are currently scheduled, and the current state of the economy, I think a few games may fold after this year.) When I started doing this shindig back in 1999, there were “only” 23 games. Now there are 34, which well over half the teams in Division I-A today, and right now I see only 68 teams getting eligible. Think about that for a second. While, yes, I don’t slavishly predict the record of every 3-5 MAC team to see if they’ll make it (which I do for the Big Six teams) things could break such that there are 70 teams or just as easily break such that there are 65 teams. I haven’t seen anything about what could happen if we don’t get to 68 this. Would the NCAA let 5-7 teams compete? I don’t know.

Anyway, let’s hit the major talking points.

BCS

  • The title game still looks to be Florida/Alabama versus Texas. With Florida’s stomping of Georgia on Saturday, it looks like they may have an edge over Alabama once again.
  • I’m slotting Alabama to the Sugar, and while I’m sure the Sugar will be glad to have them, they did go there last year and the BCS selection rules do allow for such situations.
  • I still have Iowa winning the Big Ten and Penn State getting an at-large bid. If Iowa does lose, that raises some interesting questions about the Big Ten’s ability to field two teams.
  • Despite the loss Saturday, USC will be favored in all their remaining games and should win out. Since they didn’t even fall out of the top 14 with their second loss, they’ll probably get into the Fiesta. Some folks I know believe Notre Dame may give the Fiesta pause if they’re eligible, though I doubt the ability of ND’s remaining schedule to catapult them far enough up the standings.
  • Right now, I only have one of TCU and Boise getting into the BCS. I think the only way both getting will happen is if one or two more undefeated teams lose. The only way both can ensure qualification is to finish at #3 and #4 in the final standings.
  • Though it pains to do so, I still put GT in the Orange. I am still extremely worried about picking us to win anything, of course.

ACC

  • With Virginia Tech’s loss last Thursday, any chance the ACC had of being a two-bid league were shot. The win does greatly help UNC’s ability to get bowl eligible, though.
  • Overall, I see 7 of the ACC’s 12 teams getting eligible, which is down from last year’s 10. This leaves the league two short, so it will not send a team to the Eaglebank or GMAC Bowls.
  • Yes, um, Carolina, that is Duke in a bowl game! Also note FSU getting to the Emerald, provided they can get to 6-6.

Big East

  • With an assist from Notre Dame going to the Gator, the Big East will fulfill its obligations.
  • I know USF went to the St. Petersburg last year, but I just don’t know where else to put them, and I would think that neither party particularly cares at this point, either.

Big XII

  • As per usual, the Big 12 North is a disaster. Kansas State is currently at the top of the table, but I don’t think there’s any way they’ll last there. In fact, I don’t even have them going to a bowl.
  • While Missouri is 1-3 in conference, they’ve pretty much played all the teams on their schedule they’re categorically worse than. I expect them to recover to 9-3 overall, losing the tiebreaker to Nebraska.
  • From the South, Texas will probably make the national title game, but at this point it doesn’t look good for Oklahoma State to get to a BCS game. The Cotton bowl isn’t a bad consolation prize, though.
  • With Texas A&M’s upset of Texas Tech two weeks ago, they’re actually 5-3 and need only to beat Baylor to get to 6-6.

Big Ten

  • I swear, Iowa is the worst undefeated team ever. Is there anyone who actually wants them to run the table? As I’ve pointed in the past, we have an irrational hatred of Kirk Ferenetz here, but their current “style” doesn’t help.
  • Ohio State is the wild card here, as they have yet to play Penn State and Iowa. I have them beating Iowa but losing to Penn State to slide into that old Big Ten standby, the Capital One Bowl.
  • Wisconsin should finish up 10-2 for a trip to Florida as well.
  • The rest of the Big Ten is extremely muddy. As awful as Michigan has been lately, they should still get to 6-6, though.

Pac-10

  • The King is dead; long live the King! As you no doubt know by now, USC lost! (Again.) With a 2 game lead and 4 games to go, Oregon has the conference pretty much clinched, along with a trip to Pasadena. The last time the USC didn’t go to the Rose Bowl was the 2004-5 season, when they went to the National Title game at the Orange Bowl instead.
  • Thanks to the magic of a full round-robin and a late ending conference season, the Pac-10 still has plenty of games to go. That said, with Oregon and USC going to the BCS I only see three other bowl eligible teams: Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State. I just don’t see two games on Stanford’s remaining schedule they should win, and Arizona State will come up just short.

SEC

  • Outside of a probable 10-2 LSU, the SEC’s bowl slate (again) looks pretty bleak. For starters, the SEC East looks terrible. With South Carolina’s loss to Tennessee, there is clear second place team anymore to send to the Outback. So be prepared for Lane Kiffin to say something dumb about whichever Big Ten team he faces and then lose by 20.
  • With LSU going to the Capital One, the representative for the Cotton is also equally debatable. I know Ole Miss went there last year, but I think the Peach will really want Auburn (travel time from Auburn to Atlanta: about 2 hours).
  • Provided they can make it, 6-6 Kentucky and Arkansas should round out the SEC’s field to full strength.

Somewhat Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: BYU-Boise State. It could happen if Boise doesn’t make the BCS, which would give the WAC 4 bowl eligible teams. Since the Pac-10 won’t send a team to the Poinsettia in all likelihood, this will allow them once again to get one of the best mid-major matchups since the WAC has the backup slot. Personally, I’d prefer Utah-Boise in the Las Vegas Bowl, but I don’t think that’ll happen.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Indiana @ Iowa (ESPN): The first number that popped into my head as I wrote this was “12”, so I’m guessing that means the final score here will be something like 12-11, Iowa.
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Well, after staking their claim as the 2nd worst team in the Big Ten, Purdue should be back on schedule with their beatdown in Madison.
  • Cincinnati @ Syracuse (ESPNU): Cincy can’t lose this game, can they? I suppose they can, but the ‘Cuse has been even more dreadful than usual the past few weeks, while Cincy took care of business, including putting up 41 on the Big East’s other doormat, Louisville.
  • New Mexico State @ Ohio State (BTN): Mmm, delicious cupcakes. At any rate, OSU should be able to name their own score against NMSU. I was going to make a joke about their coach punching people, but that’s actually the head coach of New Mexico. So my bad.
  • Mississippi @ Auburn (SEC/Gameplan): Well, apparently the clock struck midnight for Chris Todd and turned back into, well, Chris Todd. Even worse during the three game skid has been Auburn’s defense, which gave up 44 points to Arkansas and 31 to LSU. This will be important if Jevan Snead isn’t on target again this week (he threw 2 picks against Arkansas), as the Tigers need to give their offense all the help it can get. I think this one will probably end up low-scoring and in Ole Miss’s favor.
  • North Carolina State @ Florida State (Raycom/Gameplan): FSU got up off the mat last week against UNC. Meanwhile, NC State is really, really bad. Christian Ponder should be able to have a field day on NCSU’s secondary, which Duke torched en route to 459 passing yards a couple weeks ago. The ACC may be wacky, but NCSU is just far and away the worst team in the conference this year.

12:30: Nebraska @ Baylor (Versus): All the recaps for Baylor should probably read, “It was over when… Baylor QB/wunderkund went down for the year with a knee injury.” Of course, if Nebraska turns the ball over EIGHT TIMES again, well, who knows?

1:30: Missouri @ Colorado (FSN): Colorado: still bad! Mizzou should finally get their first Big 12 win of the year here.

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): Ahahahahahahahahahahaha. Anyway, hopefully Florida can find an offense against Willy Martinez’s patented “swiss cheese” defense. They should win anyway, but still.
  • California @ Arizona State (ABC/Gameplan): Well, even though they did just play two of the worst teams in the Pac-10, I do feel good about saying Cal is back, and that trend should continue against a team that just lost by 19 to Stanford.
  • Michigan @ Illinois (ESPN2/ABC): Why is this even on TV at all? Michigan rolls.
  • Kansas @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): Though the ship has run aground for Texas Tech, this is still a Big 12 South vs. North matchup that doesn’t involve Baylor, so the team from the south division should win.
  • University of Miami @ Wake Forest (Gameplan/ABC): “Da ‘U'” heads up to Winston-Salem, and most likely a win, as Wake comes off a 13-10 loss to Navy. If you can’t put up more than 10 on Navy, well…
  • Central Michigan @ Boston College (ESPNU): Since the loss to Arizona in the season opener, Central Michigan has rolled off 7 straight. The downside for them is that this at BC, so while I expect CMU to give them a run for their money BC should still win.
  • Temple @ Navy (CBSCS): Hey, Temple isn’t terrible this year! Nonetheless, Navy should still be able to beat them.

4:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Texas Christian (Versus): TCU has to avoid the post-game let down against a very bad UNLV squad. Provided they do, they should win handily.

4:30: Pennsylvania State @ Northwestern (ESPN): Northwestern is on the edge of getting bowl eligible, but that will most likely come against Illinois in a couple of weeks.

7:00:

  • Kansas State @ Oklahoma (FSN): This isn’t last year’s Oklahoma team, and this isn’t last year’s Kansas State team. So Kansas State may only lose by 13 instead of 23 this time.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas (ESPNU): Arkansas. Next!
  • Mississippi State @ Kentucky (SEC): Okay, this isn’t much more exciting, but at least this is a conference game. Miss State has shown signs of life but on offense the just lack talent outside of RB Anthony Dixon. Kentucky is tough to read right now, because while they are 1-3 in the SEC, those 3 losses are definitely to the upper crust of the SEC, including both Florida and Alabama. I still think Kentucky is a slightly better team than Miss State, but this could be pretty close.

7:30:

  • Washington State vs. Notre Dame (@San Antonio, TX; NBC): I don’t know for sure if this is a “true” neutral site game, but they could play this game on the Moon and Notre Dame would still win by 30. Wazzou is just bad.
  • New Mexico @ San Diego State (CBSCS): Speaking of terrible teams, New Mexico is already 0-7 and that shouldn’t change against a merely bad San Diego State squad.
  • Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt (SEC): The GT boards are alight with giddiness over the fact that GT now controls its own destiny, especially with 4 games to go. I’m still nervous, of course. The key for Tech here in Nashville is avoid a letdown and make sure that we come out in the 1st half and take Vandy out of the game. I’ve made the point in past weeks about just how terrible Vandy’s offense is this year, so I can’t exactly take it back now. But I’m just worried that our bad defense could show up again at any moment now and Vandy could figure out how to run and/or pass the ball and just ugh. GT just needs to go up there, stay focused, and avoid turnovers.

7:45: South Carolina @ Tennessee (ESPN): I’m still not buying what Tennessee is selling, and hey, now that Steve Spurrier has finally beaten Vandy perhaps him and his Gamecocks are over the hump now! (Now there’s a sentence that no one could conceive of being written 10 years ago.)

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Oregon (ABC/ESPN2): The two most important games of the day, right here. This is the Pac-10, right here. And trust me, I want to pick Oregon so bad. And it wouldn’t even be that far-fetched. While both offenses have been absolutely rolling the past few weeks, the USC defense is just a shadow of its former self at this point. That said, USC just doesn’t lose games like this, it seems like. I’ll pick the Trojans until they show me why I shouldn’t pick them. Unfortunately.
  • Texas @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2/ABC): This is also a huge game, obviously. However, I think this is the game where OSU will finally feel the loss of their best player and while they may be in it for awhile, Texas will probably prevail.
  • Michigan State @ Minnesota (BTN): That said, this is is the game of the night! It has everything you want! Two 4-4 Big Ten teams going at it in primetime! Only on the BIG TEN NETWORK!!! Okay, seriously, I’ll go with the team that didn’t let Iowa drive the length of the field with 90 seconds in the left of the game, and that’s Minnesota.

Sunday
8:15: Marshall @ Central Florida (ESPN): This is a very confusing game to pick. Both teams are roughly equal in terms of wins and losses. Both have lost to East Carolina, beat the terrible teams they played, and lost to their BCS conference opponents. So let’s play “C-USA East Coin Toss”. Marshall is heads, and UCF is tails. Heads it is!

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This Week in College Football: Week 9

Introducing “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically every day of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.
As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
8:00: East Carolina @ Memphis (ESPN2): These are two C-USA teams going in opposite directions. ECU is 3-1 in the conference and has a win over fellow 3-1 team Marshall, which puts them in the driver’s seat for the C-USA East division. Memphis, meanwhile, is 1-3. Statistically, the two teams are somewhat similar, though Memphis has marginally better offensive stats, though this may be skewed by a couple of Memphis blowouts. However, Memphis has a harder time holding onto the ball and doesn’t play defense especially well. I expect this to be a close for awhile, with ECU pulling away at the end.

Thursday
7:30: North Carolina @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): I’m not even going to get into the whole blocking discussion that flared up over the weekend. (It’s also been covered well elsewhere.) I will say that Carolina’s offense is still just terrible (namely, 114th in the nation bad). I think VPI should be able to cruise to a victory here.

Friday
8:00: West Virginia @ South Florida (ESPN2): It looks like the annual October swoon for USF – get everyone excited in September, and the flop against the teams you need to beat to win the conference. Mainly, it looks like it starts with the defense – allowing 75 points to Cincy and Pitt while averaging well less than 20 to that point in the season. WVU did what they needed to last week against UConn, and behind Noel Devine, they should be able to again.

Bowl Predictions 2009: Week 2

Once again, you’ll find the full set right over here.

Let’s hit the talking points.

BCS

  • The title game remains unchanged. Provided they win out, I see Alabama and Texas. If Texas beats Oklahoma State this weekend, then they are pretty much set barring a huge upset.
  • It’s extremely likely that Florida losing to Alabama would not drop them out of the top 14, which means the Sugar will snap them up. The Fiesta, however, has a lot more choices to replace Texas. Right now, I like the loser of USC/Oregon game to wind up here, but Oklahoma State could work themselves into this position as well. The Fiesta may also want Penn State, but I think they’ll take a western team.
  • With TCU’s resounding win over BYU Saturday, they have passed Boise in the BCS and considering each team’s remaining schedules this is unlikely to change unless TCU loses. Either way, I see the mid-major team going to the Fiesta, though Boise would have a higher chance than TCU at it. Either way, it is likely either the Fiesta or the Sugar, or at least I think so.
  • With Miami’s overtime loss to Clemson, GT now controls its own destiny in the ACC. In case you haven’t noticed from my weekly picks, I hate predicting GT to do anything. But since most mainstream projections now also have GT in the Orange I feel a little better. (I’m still nervous about it, though.)
  • The Orange has the first at-large selection this year, and if Penn State is available I think they’ll take them. With a decent season (provided they beat Ohio State) and a large fanbase, the temptation for the Orange (near the back of the at-large pack for the past 2 years) to take the best available at-large teams and sticking the Sugar and Fiesta with the remaining two auto-qualifiers (TCU and Cincinnati) would be too great.
  • Cincinnati would be stuck in the Sugar if the Fiesta takes TCU. I don’t really have much reason to think that the Fiesta would like Cincy more than TCU.
  • Finally, I currently have Iowa in the Rose, provided they win out. I think if Iowa loses any of its remaining games it is unlikely the Big Ten will get two auto-qualifiers, which opens the rest of the BCS up significantly (for teams like, say, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech).

ACC

  • Each of the ACC division leaders (GT and Clemson) controls their own destiny at this point.
  • After those two, Virginia Tech, and Miami the ACC picture is extremely muddy. Right now I have BC, followed by 3 7-5 teams (Clemson, Wake, and UNC) and that’s it. However, the middle of the pack could break several ways and the ACC could wind up with a few more 6-6 teams, but for now the conference will fall well-short of its 8 non-BCS bowl obligations.

Big 12

  • Texas is, of course, the runaway favorite in the conference.
  • There were two shocking upsets this weekend in the Big 12: Iowa State’s 9-7 win over Nebraska and Texas A&M’s surprising and thorough demolition of Texas Tech. I still don’t think either of those teams will make bowls, though, while TTU and Nebraska will probably continue as usual.
  • It’s still tough to predict Colorado to win any of its remaining games.
  • I still see Nebraska winning the Big 12 North, not that it matters.
  • Mizzou has gotten off to a terrible conference start, but with all the terrible teams it still has to play I don’t have a hard time getting them 8-4.

Big East

  • Pittsburgh its trying as hard as it can to be relevant, but I think Cincinnati is the better team and has better coaching. I see Pitt losing to West Virginia as well.
  • Thanks to Notre Dame likely taking their Gator Bowl spot, the Big East can generate an extra at-large team. With the other conference coming up short this year (looking at you, ACC) this is pretty important.
  • The extra team out will probably be a 6-6 Connecticut.

Big Ten

  • For now, I see Iowa continuing its string of 1-3 point victories no matter the opponent, if for no other reason than it simplifies things.
  • Penn State will likely earn a BCS at-large bid provided it wins out. I don’t think any other Big Ten team will be able to do so.
  • I actually think Michigan can get up to 9-3, along with Wisconsin.
  • I think Northwestern will just barely squeak in at 6-6.

Pac-10

  • This week’s Oregon-USC battle is for the conference, pretty much. Right now I have USC winning and Oregon getting an at-large berth. I’m not sure a 2-loss USC could do the same.
  • I think Cal is on the road to recovery, and I like Arizona and Oregon State to achieve winning records as well. Arizona State and Washington may just sneak in.
  • Without an upset or two the rest of the way, though, I see Stanford falling just short.

SEC

  • As is well-documented at this point, Florida and Alabama are on a collision course to the title game. It’d be nice if either actually could score some points, though. Florida has the easier schedule, having already cleared the LSU hurdle Alabama faces this weekend.
  • After those three, the SEC picture is extremely muddled. In the end, I have an excess of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, with only Vanderbilt and Miss State failing to reach the mark.

Non-Obvious Matchup of the Week: Pretty slim pickings this week. I’d say Miami-Notre Dame in the Gator, but that’s pretty obvious, along with Nebraska-Michigan. But hey, while any weekend of college football is exciting, this weekend has the potential for some that could really shake up the bowl landscape. So we’ll see what goes here next week.