First, a link.

And now, business. First off, many of these predictions are not as accurate as I’d like for the week after Thanksgiving. While all the controversy is closer to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings, the real uncertainty is due to two teams: Western Michigan and Navy.

Western Michigan, as you may know, are currently undefeated heading into their MAC title game tilt with Ohio Friday night. Navy will play in the AAC title game against Temple on Saturday. CMU is currently ranked 17th, while Navy is ranked 19th. The Playoff rankings are relatively opaque, which is sometimes a good thing (they seem more willing to move teams around based on new data, unlike the traditional polls), but also a bad thing because it makes it harder for us to predict. (And, frankly, we should know what their criteria are instead of having to guess at it.) I don’t think it’s especially likely that a 2-loss Navy would jump an undefeated Western Michigan, but the point is no one knows for sure. The result, currently, is chaos. The worst-case scenario is that the Committee decides that they need more data, thus meaning we all have to wait for Navy to play Army next weekend. In essence, it’s entirely possible that almost every MAC, AAC, or bowl with at-large slots will be unable to fill its spots until December 11th, possibly affecting the bowls that kick off the following Saturday.

In other words, there’s probably a lot of bowl officials going “I love our country, but… it’d really work out out if Navy lost on Saturday” right now. 

Elsewhere:

• I just re-shuffled some of the Sun Belt bids, so the these predictions are fresh as of about 10 minutes ago.
• Fun times in the ACC bowl hierarchy, where some unexpectedly 6-6 teams and a Louisville loss to Kentucky have shuffled things up. Let’s just go down the list:
• Clemson’s in the playoff if they beat Virginia Tech, nothing’s changed there. They’ll be either a 2 or 3 seed if they’re in, I think.
• Me, and just about everyone else, is now putting Florida State in the Orange Bowl over Louisville. Look, I don’t agree with it, but maybe the Cardinals just should’ve taken care of business at home.
• Since four Big Ten teams are going to get into the CFP-controlled bowls, one of them is going to be in the Orange Bowl. And if one of them is in the Orange Bowl, then an ACC team gets in the Citrus Bowl. So that’s where Louisville will wind up if they miss out on the Orange Bowl.
• The Russell Athletic Bowl gets the first ACC selection after that mess, and I think they’ll take the top team on the board, Virginia Tech.
• Next up is the ACC mid-tier consisting of the Taxslayer Bowl (probably no Music City this year), Belk Bowl, Sun Bowl, and Pinstripe Bowl. Right now, I’m going with the obvious geographic fits for the Pinstripe (Pittsburgh), Belk (North Carolina) and Taxslayer (Miami). So that leaves the Sun to pick from 8-4 Georgia Tech and the ACC’s three 6-6 teams. I’m going with the Jackets for that one. About the only thing that I think could change is Tech to the Taxslayer and Miami to the Sun, but that’s about it.
• As with last year, it’s basically impossible to predict where the 5-7 teams will end up. We can, however, pretty safely say a bowl eligible 6-7 Hawaii will end up at the Hawaii Bowl, but it’s not official yet. Here are your potential APR 5-7 teams, in priority order:
• North Texas
• Texas/Mississippi State
• Northern Illinois

That’s about it for now. Stay tuned Saturday night, when the last predictions will go up before we transition to game previews. (Hopefully.)

The new predictions are now up.

Provided I did the math correctly, there are currently 65 bowl eligible teams. That means we need 15 more, but where will they come from? Let’s list out every team on the cusp.

I’ll just go in order of the ESPN standings page.

1. Southern Methodist (5-6): The Mustangs have to play at Navy this Saturday, the odds of them getting to 6-6 are pretty slim.
2. North Carolina State (5-6): They play North Carolina on Friday, which isn’t impossible for the Wolfpack, but again, I’m not feeling good about it.
3. Texas Christian (5-5): TCU still has two games to play, against Texas and Kansas State. I think I’ll win one but not the other, with my money on Texas.
4. Texas (5-6): Since I have TCU beating Texas, well, that pretty much knocks the Longhorns out. Shouldn’t have lost to Kansas!
5. Indiana (5-6): If only all of the above teams could get to play Purdue with bowl eligibility on the line! I like the Hoosiers chances.
6. Maryland (5-6): See above, but replace “Purdue” with “Rutgers”.
7. Northwestern (5-6): See above, but replace “Rutgers” with “Illinois”.
8. Texas-San Antonio (5-6): The Roadrunners appear to be pretty evenly matched with Charlotte, so it could be kind of a tossup. I’m giving UTSA the edge, though.
9. North Texas (5-6): So the Mean Green wrap up with UTEP, which is two wins worse in C-USA than North Texas but not that obviously worse. I’m still giving them a slight edge.
10. Southern Mississippi (5-6): The Golden Eagles will play Louisiana Tech on Friday, and I just can’t favor USM over LaTech.
11. Army (6-5): Army played two FCS teams this year, so one of the wins doesn’t count toward bowl eligibility, so if they lose to Navy (as predicted) in a few weeks then their record for bowl eligibility will actually be 5-6. That said, they’d almost certainly get picked as a 6-6 team, if they want to.
12. Arizona State (5-6): The Sun Devils will play their arch-rivals Friday night, but they should prevail. 
13. Vanderbilt (5-6): The Commodores will end their season against Tennessee, but as one of the schools in the APR Top 5 they’ll almost certainly get a bid at 5-7.
14. Mississippi (5-6): I suspect Ole Miss are slight favorites in the Egg Bowl, and I imagine they’d get in at 5-7, but still, it’d make everything a lot easier if they win like they’re supposed to.
15. South Alabama (5-5): USA only needs to win one of their two remaining games against Idaho and New Mexico State, which, well, they should be able to win one of those.

So, yeah, that’s exactly 15 teams, and the odds of all of them winning over the next two weeks are probably somewhere near zero. I have 9 of them as legitimate favorites, so that would still leave us, and everyone, short 6 teams. I supposed it’s entirely possible all of these teams get bids, but so far I haven’t done a lot of research for the potential 5-7 teams (other than Army and Vanderbilt).

In this week’s edition, I also started doing Internet research to try to figure out what teams are favored to go where, but with so much uncertainty it’s difficult right now. Next week should be a little more fruitful.

Get ’em while they’re… only a couple days old?

Anyway, yes, at lot of stuff happened, but frankly most of the scenarios I outlined last week are still in play. Really, most of the changes you see in this week’s predictions are because of two things. First, Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss. Second, Auburn lost to Georgia. So long, the SEC’s best hope of getting three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls! (TAMU could still do it, but I don’t see them beating LSU at this point.) Of course, that leaves me in the rather uncomfortable position of putting four (4!) Big Ten teams in those selfsame bowl games, so… check back next week when I hopefully have something more reasonable.

I’m going to avoid any snarky remarks about being better at this than some notable professionals in the predictions business and cut right to the chase.

I’ve always liked ESPN’s Bubble Watch feature for the NCAA tournament, and in some ways, this is a similar exercise. So let’s go conference-by-conference and assess their chances. The full predictions, as usual, are here.

ACC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

• Clemson (6-0 ACC, 9-0 overall): Clemson closes with Pitt, Wake Forest, and South Carolina. They would have to lose to both Pitt and Wake Forest to miss out on the ACC Championship Game, which would also deny them a chance at the playoff. If they win out, they’re in.

CFP bubble:

• Louisville (6-1, 8-1): they close with Wake Forest, Houston, and a potential SEC East champion Kentucky. They figure to win all three, but Clemson has to lose twice for them to have any shot at the ACCCG and, therefore, the playoff. They do, however, figure to take the ACC’s spot in the Orange Bowl, so it’s not all bad.

Bowling: Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Carolina

Work left to do:

• Miami (2-3, 5-4): The Canes finally got out of their post-FSU funk by demolishing Pitt 51-28. They figure to win out against Virginia, NC State, and Duke.
• Pittsburgh (2-3, 5-4): Pitt just needs to win one out of Clemson, Duke, and Syracuse, and, well, 7-5 looks pretty likely.
• Georgia Tech (2-3, 5-4): we just need to win one of Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia. I’m not sure how good I feel about it, but I currently have us in.
• Syracuse (2-3, 4-5): the Orange have to win two out of NC State, Florida State, and Pitt. I think they’ll be lucky to win one.
• North Carolina State (1-4, 4-5): their loss to Boston College really hurt their chances a few weeks back. I like them against Syracuse, but they close with Miami and North Carolina.
• Boston College (1-5, 4-5): I should probably rank BC higher, because they might have the best chances of the 4-5 teams. Yeah, they’ll lose to FSU, but then they get UConn and Wake Forest. That said, Wake is improved this year BC still has trouble generating offense. If they win in Winston-Salem, it’ll be an upset.
• Duke (0-5, 3-6): not dead yet, but that figures to no longer be the case after a visit from the Tar Heels Saturday.

Big 12
CFP bubble:

• Oklahoma (6-0, 7-2): figures to be the Big 12’s Sugar Bowl rep. Too many things have to happen in front of them to make it into the actual playoff.
• Oklahoma State (5-1, 7-2): I’m currently projecting the Big 12 to only get one team into the CFP-controlled bowls. Provided neither lose before then, the Bedlam winner figures to make it into the Sugar Bowl.
• West Virginia (4-1, 7-1): it’s a long shot for the Mountaineers to make it to a CFP-controlled bowl. If they beat Oklahoma in Morgantown, they would then need the Sooners to turn around and win Bedlam in order for them to win as Big 12 champs.

Bowling: Baylor

Work left to do:

• Texas Christian (3-3, 5-4): I like the Horned Frogs the best out of the group we’re about to go over, but that mostly just means I like them to go 5-4 in-conference and not 4-5. But that’ll be enough.
• Kansas State (3-3, 5-4): K-State figures to make it to 6-6 since they get to play Kansas. Anything beyond that is a reach.
• Texas (3-3, 5-4): See above, but they do also play TCU at home.
• Texas Tech (2-4, 4-5): the Red Raiders need two, and they’ll probably have to go through Iowa State and Baylor to do it. I think they can, but it’ll be a close thing.

Big Ten
Win and they’re in the CFP:

• Michigan (6-0, 9-0): they’ll get two more warmups, but then they’ll have two tough games in quick succession. First, they’re going to Columbus this year. If they get past the Buckeyes, they’ll probably get to play Wisconsin again in the Big Ten Championship Game. They beat the Badgers 14-7 at home the first time around.
• Ohio State (5-1, 8-1): if they beat Michigan, then they’ll also have the same Badger issue. Either way, the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game is going to the Rose Bowl.

CFP bubble:

• Pennsylvania State (5-1, 7-2): since the Nittany Lions don’t figure to lose again, I have them as slight favorites to get a 3rd spot for the Big Ten in one of the CFP-controlled bowls. 
• Wisconsin (4-2, 7-2): of the three teams atop the West division, I like the Badgers the best to win out and clinch the division (since they beat the other two contenders). That said, it’s an open question how the Committee would treat a 10-3 BTNCG loser against a 10-2 Penn State. I mean, after all, that means all three of Wisconsin’s losses were to some combination of Michigan and Ohio State. It may depend on if and how they lose. Of course, the ultimate chaos scenario is if they win the BTNCG…
• Nebraska (4-2, 7-2): to even be in this discussion, Nebraska needs Wisconsin to lose to one of Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota, and then for us to have selective amnesia about that time they lost 62-3 to Ohio State, and then for them to upset those selfsame Buckeyes or Michigan in the BTNCG. Yeah… 

Bowling: Minnesota

Work left the to do:

• Iowa (3-3, 5-4): Iowa gets to play Illinois, which bodes well for them getting to 6 wins. Which is totally what they’re paying Kirk Ferentz some unholy sum of money for, right?
• Indiana (3-3, 5-4): they Hoosiers only need to win one more, but it’s going to come down to the end, since they get to play Penn State and Michigan before finishing with Purdue.
• Maryland (2-4, 5-4): that’s right, the Terps! They fails a similar predicament, though, with Ohio State and Nebraska lined up before Rutgers.
• Northwestern (3-3, 4-5): by far the easiest schedule, but they need to win two of Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois.
• Illinois (2-4, 3-6): at trip to Madison this weekend should end their hopes.
• Purdue (1-5, 3-6): the Boilermakers would have to win out against Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Yeah, that’s not happening.

Pac-12
Win and they’re in the CFP:

• Washington (6-0, 9-0): their bonafides will continue to improve with a visit from an improving USC team this weekend, but the real drama figures to be in Pullman. Sadly, I see that game has already been scheduled for 12:30 PM Pacific time. 

CFP bubble:

• Colorado (5-1, 7-2): I don’t think they can make the playoff, per se, but the Pac-12 championship loser figures to make the Rose Bowl (or the winner if they’re not Washington, for that matter). 
• Utah (4-2, 7-2): see above.
• Washington State (6-0, 7-2): they can get to the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 champs, but that’s about it.

Bowling: Southern California, Stanford

Work left to do:

• Arizona State (2-4, 5-4): if they can survive playing Utah and at Washington, they’ll be playing in Tuscon for a bowl bid.
• California (2-4, 4-5): it’s not impossible for the Bears, but they need to win two out of Washington State, Stanford, and UCLA. Which, again, it’s not impossible, but it does feel unlikely.
• Oregon (1-5, 3-6): the Ducks have to win out against an improving Stanford and then two straight road games against Utah and Oregon State. The odds of winning all three figure to slim.
• California-Los Angeles (1-5, 3-6): they have to win out against Oregon State, Southern Cal, and Cal. This doesn’t bode well.

SEC
Win and they’re in the CFP:

• Alabama (6-0, 9-0): considering the current state of the SEC East, the only game of any importance left on their schedule is the Iron Bowl. Considering the stakes, can we get it moved back to Legion Field one more time?
• Auburn (6-1, 7-2): yeah, a two-loss SEC champ figures to crack the top four. Such is life.

CFP bubble:

• Texas A&M (4-2, 7-2): remember, one of Auburn’s two losses is to TAMU, but by blowing it against Miss State they also likely blew any chance of being able to win the SEC. They’re still in a good spot to get a Sugar Bowl bid, though.

Bowling: Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas

Work left to do:

• Louisiana State (3-2, 5-3): as it turns out, Alabama is pretty good! But the Tigers get to close out with a fading Arkansas team, and if that doesn’t get them to 6, well, they were originally going to play Presbyterian, which, is that really that different from an SEC East team at this point?
• Kentucky (4-3, 5-4): the Wildcats have only one more conference game, and that’s at Tennessee. I’d say that’s a toss-up at this point, but either way, they’ll beat Austin Peay and then lose badly to Lamar Jackson and company. So their ceiling is pretty solidly set at 7 wins.
• Georgia (3-4, 5-4): Georgia figure to be in good shape to get to 7-5, which is what they got Kirby Smart for, right?
• South Carolina (3-4, 5-4): seriously, where does the tradition of SEC teams parking a FCS team the weekend before Thanksgiving come from? Either way, it’ll get the Gamecocks bowling.
• Mississippi (1-4, 4-5): well, the Rebels are down a Chad Kelly against Texas A&M this weekend. That’s not good! But then they get to play Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
• Vanderbilt (1-4, 4-5): Vandy closes with Mizzou, Mississippi, and Tennessee. I figure they’ll only win one of those, but thanks to their APR scores and general lack of enough teams that will be bowl eligible, I figure they’ll go bowling at 5-7.
• Mississippi State (2-3, 4-5): the odds of Miss State also pulling off upsets against two of Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss are pretty slim. But there’s a chance!

I’ll cover the Group of Five, but in brief.

American
Bowling: Temple, South Florida, Navy, Houston, Tulsa, Memphis

Work left to do: Central Florida (3-2, 5-4), Cincinnati (1-4, 4-5), Southern Methodist (2-3, 4-5), East Carolina (1-4, 3-6), Tulane (0-5, 3-6)

Conference USA
Bowling: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech

Work left to do: Texas-San Antonio (4-2, 5-4), Southern Mississippi (3-2, 5-4), North Texas (2-3, 4-5), Charlotte (3-2, 4-5), Texas-El Paso (1-4, 3-6)

Independents
Work left to do: Brigham Young (5-4), Army (5-4), Notre Dame (3-6)

Mid-American
CFP Bubble:

• Western Michigan (6-0, 10-0): the Broncos currently lead… the Broncos of Boise State in the CFP Poll by one spot. I don’t think Western Michigan is truly safe for the Group of Five spot unless they win out and Boise either loses again or doesn’t make the Mountain West title game.

Bowling: Ohio, Toledo, Eastern Michigan

Work left to do: Akron (3-3, 5-5), Central Michigan (2-4, 5-5), Miami (4-2, 4-6), Ball State (1-5, 4-6), Northern Illinois (3-2, 3-6)

Mountain West
CFP Bubble:

• Boise State (4-1, 8-1): Boise figures to be heavy favorites in their remaining games, but they need Wyoming to lose twice to make the Mountain West title game. The Cowboys do have a game against San Diego State, but they’d still need to drop the ball against UNLV or New Mexico for Boise to have a shot. If Boise makes the MWC title game and beats San Diego State, though, that still figures to give them a better resume than Western Michigan. 

Bowling: Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State

Work left to do: Colorado State (3-3, 5-4), Hawaii (3-3, 4-6), Nevada-Las Vegas (2-3, 3-6), Utah State (1-5, 3-6), Nevada (1-4, 3-6)

Sun Belt
Bowling:  Appalachian State (5-0, 7-2), Troy (4-0, 7-1)

Work left to do: Arkansas State (4-0, 4-4), Idaho (3-2, 6-4), Georgia Southern (3-2, 4-5), South Alabama (1-5, 4-5), Louisiana-Lafayette (2-3, 3-5), Louisiana-Monroe (2-3, 3-6), New Mexico State (1-3, 2-6), Texas State (0-4, 2-6)

Overall, I was three teams short this week, but that includes a 5-7 Vanderbilt. If this threat continues to linger, we should start seeing some stories Thanksgiving week about what will happen. Until then…