It’s the final weekend of the season, and the last set of bowl predictions where in I predict who goes where are here. Of course, since the Committee will unveil their rankings at noon Eastern, most of you won’t see this, but those are the breaks I guess.

Let’s get down it.

Playoff

Here’s that image again, one last time:

Here’s my projected top three:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State

So the problem is that number four slot. Based on the above, I consider TCU and Baylor to have virtually identical resumes, except for the part where Baylor, you know, beat TCU. The problem is that I have been saying that for as long as I’ve been doing these predictions this year, and the Committee has not agreed with me one bit.

Ohio State’s utter annihilation of Wisconsin makes them much more likely to jump into the #4 slot than previously slot. Also hurting TCU (and Baylor) is Oklahoma being upset by three touchdown underdog Oklahoma State.

The challenge here is thinking like the Committee. In a fair and just world where I rule over everything, Baylor is in. Since this world is unfair and cruel, Baylor almost certainly has no shot.

That leaves us with TCU and Ohio State. So let’s go to a tale of the tape:

	Ohio State	Texas Christian
Record	12-1	11-1
Best Win	Michigan State	Kansas State
Worst Loss	Virginia Tech	Baylor
vs. >.500 teams	7-0	4-1
Opponent win %	0.574	0.529
MOV vs. >.500	26.3	9.2
Yard Margin vs. >.500	186	9

The mental block for me is still Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech is not a team that should be a confused with a good one. Also, I still think Ohio State’s Big Ten competition was weaker than TCU’s competition, even considering that Ohio State faced more teams with winning records. (Worth noting that the Big Ten only has eight conference games compared to the Big 12’s nine, which means that Big Ten teams only need three conference wins to get to better than .500 rather than four.)

Frankly, based on the Committee’s votes so far, I have to predict that it will be TCU in the playoff. Florida State’s win over us should put them back at #3, but TCU has been consistently above Ohio State in every poll. I don’t really know what criteria they’re looking at, but at this point my gut says that they’re going to say it’s TCU.

As though that’s not confusing enough, there’s another issue. Regardless of what the top four looks like, the following teams are virtual locks to play in either the playoff or one of the access bowls:

1. Alabama (SEC Champ)
2. Oregon (Pac-12 Champ)
3. Florida State (ACC Champ)
4. Ohio State (Big Ten Champ)
5. TCU (Big 12 Co-Champ)
6. Baylor (Big 12 Co-Champ)
7. Boise State (highest ranked Group of Five team)
8. Georgia Tech (highest ranked non-playoff ACC team, Orange Bowl)
9. Michigan State (Orange Bowl selects highest ranked Big Ten/SEC non-champ or Notre Dame)
10. Mississippi State (ranked #10 this week and didn’t play)

There are two playoff bowl games and four access bowls for a total of 12 teams.

So I need two more teams. Arizona (#7 going into the week) was a pretty good bet, but they got blown out by Oregon. Kansas State was #9 and lost. Both these losses will almost certainly put Ole Miss (#12) into a game. Now the question is, how far does Arizona fall? Kansas State is probably out of the picture now. #13 was Wisconsin, but their demolition at the hands of Ohio State puts them out. Are #14 Georgia and #15 UCLA now also in play?

The Committee has executed large drops before. Ole Miss dropped 11 spots after getting blown out by Arkansas. Of course, Oregon is a slightly better opponent than Arkansas, and Arizona did beat them earlier in the season. I don’t think Arizona will be ranked behind Georgia. The worry for the Wildcats, though, is UCLA, who beat Arizona. UCLA also beat Arizona’s second-best win, Arizona State. However, UCLA was last seen losing in dominating fashion to a pretty mediocre Stanford team.

So with that, I’m going to stick with Arizona. I’ve placed them in the Fiesta against Boise State. The rest of the access bowls are pretty interesting. Ole Miss has been to the Cotton Bowl a couple times in the past five years, so I sent them to the Peach instead to face Ohio State, leaving Baylor to face Mississippi State in the Cotton. (Talk about two teams who wish their seasons had gone just slightly different.)

ACC

The top of the ACC is fairly orderly as long as nothing happens to Florida State. Since a Big Ten team will appear in the Orange Bowl, the ACC will take its slot in the Citrus Bowl, and that team would most likely be Clemson. This leaves Louisville to gobble up the Russell Athletic Bowl bid.

Did that seem too easy? Well, don’t worry, it gets weird. Apparently the ACC’s “first tier” bowls have entered a lottery to see which one gets Notre Dame. Oh boy. Drawing on some Internet “news”, it seems like the Pinstripe will take Duke. I put Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl, but since the drawing is random they could really end up anywhere. As a result of that, though, I sent Boston College to the Sun Bowl and NC State to go Belk it up.

I’d seen some news that a Virginia Tech-Cincinnati Military Bowl matchup was pretty likely, so I did that and pushed some of the other teams down a slot.

Big Ten

In Big Ten news, these two articles demonstrate the hard part of this business. The Minneapolis Star Tribune thinks that Nebraska and Wisconsin will occupy the Big Ten’s more prestigious bowl slots, while the Lincoln Star Journal thinks it’ll be Minnesota and Wisconsin. I wound up going with the Nebraska paper, and besides, Nebraska did just fire that coach while Minnesota is enjoying one of their best seasons ever.

Trying to figure out who went where in the Big Ten’s second tier bowls is a bit of a nightmare, especially since they’re short a bid with the Citrus Bowl going to an ACC team. Another way this hurts is that Illinois is forced to scrounge for an at-large bid somewhere, though that could just easily be Maryland. I did see some news, however, indicating that Penn State is a good bet for the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big 12

The Big 12 is pretty straightforward, and they even get to fill their Cactus Bowl slot thanks to Oklahoma State’s upset. I don’t think anything too wacky will happen here.

Pac-12

Note that this all hinges on Arizona getting an access bowl bid as detailed above. If UCLA gets you can swap Arizona for them, but if it goes to a team from another conference then all hell breaks loose in these predictions.

UCLA/Arizona is a good bet for the Alamo Bowl, which picks first. Next up is the Holiday Bowl, which apparently pretty badly wants USC, even at the expense of Arizona State, so it’ll probably happen. This puts the Foster Farms Bowl in a bit of a bind, as they’ve made it known they want Stanford. Apparently the Pac-12’s two-win rule applies to conference victories. Stanford is okay if Arizona State drops this far, but if Arizona does (by virtue of being left out and not getting picked earlier) they cannot fall past here.

The Internet tells me it’s pretty likely Washington falls to the Cactus Bowl, so that sends Utah to Vegas.

SEC

I don’t think Georgia will go to Orlando, as that would cause a re-match with Clemson, so I’ve slotted Mizzou there instead. Some news I found indicates that LSU is a strong possibility for the TaxSlayer Bowl. Some news I did find had UGA officials saying their preferred destinations were Orlando and Tampa, so I’ve somewhat reluctantly slotted them into the Outback Bowl, again. (At least they won’t face Nebraska this time.) I’ve slotted Auburn into the Music City Bowl, so I think that leaves South Carolina as a strong possibility to go Belking.

That leaves the Texas and Liberty Bowls and four teams: Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl just has to happen, right? I’ll be very disappointed if it doesn’t, along with the rest of the Internet. I think that point Tennessee winds up in the Liberty.

Next up in the SEC’s pecking order is the Birmingham Bowl, which I’d guess would take Florida, leaving Arkansas for the Independence. But wait! I have Miami in the Independence Bowl. And Arkansas has definitely had a better end to their season, which may make them the more exciting bowl prospect. So, just for fun, I’ve switched the two around. We’ll see how it really shakes out pretty soon anyway.

Everyone Else

Some of the bids for the Mountain West, American, and other conferences are based on news, but a lot of it (more than usual) at this point is guesswork. Hopefully next year there’ll be more bowl officials leaking news like they used to.

There is one game that needs an at-large team, the Armed Forces Bowl. Their backup conference is normally the Big 12, but there is not an extra Big 12 team. I think it will be the extra Big Ten team, which in this case is Illinois.

That leaves the following teams eligible but without bids: Texas State, Temple, Middle Tennessee State, Ohio, and Alabama-Birmingham.

A quick aside on UAB: what happened this past week is awful. They’re bowl eligible for only the second time ever, but with the school pulling the plug (for frankly what I think are entirely petty political reasons), they’ve alienated Conference USA (so they’re unlikely to get one of the conference’s bids, even at the expense of another 6-6) team and there are not enough at-large slots otherwise. I’m predicting the Blazers have played their last game.

Well, we’ll see how wrong I am very shortly. Thanks for reading!

First off, once again, woo! We beat Georgia!

Second, we’ll have an unprecedented week 8 of predictions this year, since everyone is so tight-lipped this year. I’ll have a new set up next Sunday before the new rankings are released.

With that out of the way, let’s get down to the nitty-gritty.

Playoffs

I won’t post the image I’ve been posting again, but Miss State’s loss probably knocks them out of contention. My arguments for Baylor remain the same, but they definitely didn’t help themselves by struggling against Texas Tech on Saturday. I expect the committee’s top four tomorrow to be Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and TCU. If everything goes as expected Saturday, the main question will be if a Baylor win over Kansas State is enough to lift them over TCU. I think it should be, but I’m not entirely sure it will be. I’ll have to make that call again next week.

The other teams in the top three also play this weekend, all in conference championship games. Oregon has a chance to avenge their loss to Arizona, and with a healthier offensive line and a now fully effective Marcus Mariota I’d say they’re poised to do just that. I don’t think Alabama will have any problem with Missouri. As for Florida State, well, anything can happen, huh?

As for the other committee-affiliated bowls, Georgia Tech is pretty much in the Orange win or lose in the ACCCG (unless the committee really lowballs our ranking). The Orange then needs to select the next highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten team, which I think is going to be Ohio State. The other bowls are pretty much a guess in terms of what the teams are going to be ranked and how the committee will match them up. Yes, that is still three SEC teams. Also, Boise State pretty much has the Group-of-Five bid sewn up with Marshall and Colorado State losing last weekend.

ACC

There was no news from any ACC school this week, but if Ohio State or Michigan State does indeed wind up in the Orange Bowl, this has the potential to trigger a situation where the Citrus Bowl must select an ACC team instead of a Big Ten team. This means I was able to slot Clemson into the Citrus instead of the Russell Athletic. I figure Louisville will slot above Duke in terms of desirability at this point. I then tried to place the above .500 teams next. Pitt’s upset of Miami also got them in, which means that if the Citrus Bowl thing doesn’t happen the ACC will have an extra team.

Big Ten

No news from Big Ten country either. Without the Citrus Bowl slot, I figure Wisconsin will get sent out west (that may happen anyway). This also has the knock-on effect of Illinois probably needing an at-large bid somewhere, but as an eligible team from a major conference they shouldn’t have an issue.

Big 12

The Big 12 is relatively easy. The only question is Texas-Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl will happen (probably everyone but the schools involved want it to happen, I’d guess), but that’s more on the SEC’s plate since there’s less play in terms of what Big 12 teams go where.

Pac-12

The Pac-12 is pretty easy as well, though there’s some question in terms of how many teams they can get in to the access bowls (i.e., it could be Arizona State or UCLA instead of Ole Miss). There’s some shuffling that may go on between the 7-5 and 6-6 schools, which a situation that will bear watching throughout the week.

SEC

Twelve of the fourteen SEC members are bowl eligible, and if the SEC gets three teams into the access bowls and/or playoffs, then they should be golden. Of course, an SEC team sure as heck isn’t going to be left out in the cold at the end of the bowl selection dance, but still. There is a bit of question of just where each team and the conference office will want particular teams to go at the end of the day. If you’re hoping against hope that Texas-Texas A&M will happen, then directing your prayers toward Birmingham on Sunday would be your best bet.

That’s about it. Tune in again late Saturday/early Sunday for my last stab at this before Sunday evening. Now that I think about it, this is a bit more like bracketology now, though at least we have a couple decades of precedent in terms knowing how the NCAA basketball tournament committee thinks.

They’re hot and fresh, that’s right, it’s another edition of bowl predictions.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t as much news as I’d hoped, mostly because a lot of bowls are apparently going to wait until December 7 to reveal their picks. Hopefully there will be some more news next week. Until then, let’s continue to speculate!

Playoffs

I have another helpful graphic:

It’s in alphabetical order this time, so it doesn’t reflect the current rankings or the order in which I do the conferences or anything. Based on this, I’d still generally agree that Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State are going to be the top three (but boy howdy are FSU making it hard on themselves).

The question, really, is that #4 slot. And I think there are four candidates:

• Mississippi State: the current leaders in the clubhouse, but I’m writing this before this week’s rankings. They can’t be real excited about Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU’s play of late.
• TCU: currently ahead of Baylor, but that could change if Baylor beats Kansas State this weekend.
• Baylor: needs to beat Kansas State, but I think that point their win over TCU just has to count for something, right? We’ll find out in due time, I guess.
• Ohio State: sort of playing their way in, especially with Minnesota playing well. Problem for them is that they still sport by far the worst loss on this list, so they still need a lot of help.

I still like Baylor the best, but if they beat Kansas State like I project and then are still out next week, I will have to revise my predictions.

After that, I started trying to logically do the access bowl spots. It’s still a guess (other than TCU, Ohio State, and Mississippi State), but I did at least use this week’s rankings to get an idea. The question of how to treat championship game losers is still around, though, but that’s why I have things like Clemson in the Orange Bowl over Georgia Tech. (GT can do themselves a large favor by beating UGA, though.)

Other Things of Note

Let’s do this bullet-point style.

• Sorry, Marshall, but it’s just not going to happen. 
• That said, I’m going with Colorado State because they are a) currently higher ranked and b) have better wins than Boise. Problem for the Rams is still that pesky loss to Boise that will keep them out of the Mountain West title game. We’ll see what happens if and when the committee decides to rank either of them.
• Texas Bowl: Texas-Texas A&M. It has to happen. Has to!
• Speaking of former Big 12 rivalries, how about Missouri-Nebraska in the Citrus Bowl?
• It’s difficult to tell how teams that are going to fire their coaches will fare in the new bowl scenarios. I bumped Florida down because of this.
• I feel like I really need a year with this thing to figure out how it will shake out. Hopefully next year will have a little less uncertainty. 

The predictions are up. Let’s discuss them briefly.

The Playoff
Here’s that chart again:

This chart isn’t really in any sort of order. The predictions page reflects my final seeds. FSU is basically only in because I figure the committee will lend considerable weight to an undefeated schedule. If FSU loses at all their resume will put them definitively out. The fact that the team they play in the ACC Championship Game will have the best record of any team they face all season is a huge problem for the Seminoles.

At this point no team other than Oregon is going to get in from the Pac-12.

Overall, I don’t think there’s room for a two loss team unless all hell breaks loose, and well, that could happen, but I’ll deal with it if we get there.

I personally value the number of “good wins” above all else, so the seeds are a combination of what I think is important and what I’m guessing the committee will think is important. Since they haven’t shown a willingness to put FSU at #1, and indeed dropped them to #3 last week, I think they’ll be in the top four if they win out for sure, but anything other than that isn’t guaranteed. So I put them at #3, behind Alabama and Oregon.

Then the question is, who is #4? Your contenders are Baylor, Mississippi State, TCU, and Ohio State. This is a horrifically close call, but figures that in year one of this new thing we’ll already get a pretty strong case for an eight-team playoff. (Then again, that probably just means we’d be arguing about who #8 is.) I went with Baylor. The following arguments are in their favor: they’re co-Big 12 Champions with TCU, they beat TCU head-to-head, and also have the same good wins TCU has. I like them over Miss State and Ohio State because they have better wins than both (in TCU) and Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech becomes more inexplicable every week.

A lot can happen, though. Here’s each team’s remaining schedule:

• Alabama (projected #1): West Carolina (W), Auburn (I’m predicting a win), if they finish tied or better than Miss State, they will go to the SEC Championship where they will probably play Missouri or maybe Georgia. They will be favored against either, but neither provides a huge resume boost at this point. (Hey, remember that time Mizzou lost to Indiana? The Hoosiers are probably going to be transitive SEC East Champs.)
• Oregon (projected #2): Colorado (probable win), @Oregon State (probable win, but on the road in what is sometimes a wacky rivalry game), Pac-12 title game, probably against UCLA, but also could be against Southern Cal, Arizona St, or Arizona. For best win purposes, Oregon probably would prefer to face UCLA. Facing USC is probably the worst case.
• Florida State (projected #3): Boston College (probable W), Florida (probable W), Duke or Georgia Tech. FSU probably really wishes that Oklahoma State wasn’t have a down year, as that would really help them in the strength of schedule department. 
• Baylor (projected #4): Oklahoma State (probable W), Texas Tech (W), Kansas State (very tough W). TCU handled K-State pretty easily, but nonetheless that gives them the biggest potential prize on anyone’s remaining schedule. The flip side of that, of course, is that gives them the hardest schedule in this group.
• Texas Christian: Texas (probable W), Iowa State (W). Not much else to say about this one, but boy howdy did TCU make it interesting against Kansas last weekend or what? For now, I’ll chalk that up to playing a bit down to their opposition, but they won’t be able to get away with that against Texas.
• Ohio State: Indiana (W), Michigan (probable W), Big Ten championship game, probably Wisconsin. The Buckeyes stalled a bit against Minnesota last weekend, but they’ll be able to get things tuned again with their remaining regular season schedule. That said, I suspect they will really wish that, say, Baylor and FSU lose. Probably Miss State too, for good measure.
• Mississippi State: Vanderbilt (W), Mississippi (?), SEC championship only if they win out and Alabama loses to Auburn. The game against Ole Miss will be tough, but I have them winning it. Playing in the SEC Championship wouldn’t give them a boost in and of itself, it would just give them the title “SEC Champion”, which may count for a lot at the end of this thing.

As for the other “access bowls”, they remain a guesswork. East Carolina’s loss to Cincinnati last Thursday eliminated them from contention for a spot, so for now I’ve slotted Colorado State there. Who and where they will play remain a mystery to me.

Next week I hope that research will enable to start eliminating a lot of the guesswork, but with conferences holding more of the cards now, even the usual “representatives from these bowl games were there” articles won’t help as much as they did in the past.