Let’s get the link out of the way.

I feel like I’m close to really being able to do an in-depth analysis, though I think we won’t really be able to have a real idea of what things will look like until Oregon and Stanford play. While this weekend’s Alabama-LSU tilt is huge for the national title game, the loser will likely still get into a BCS bowl as long as they don’t lose again. I think Oregon will beat Stanford, which leaves me in a bad position because I also think Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State. For the sake of clarity right now, I’m not going with the latter prediction to avoid a big mess, pretty much.

Elsewhere in the BCS, I’m not really sure to do after I slot the Alabama-LSU loser into the Sugar Bowl. I have Wisconsin, Oregon, Clemson, and West Virginia as conference champs, and Boise should qualify for an at-large. So that leaves us with two more at-large slots. I went with Stanford and Oklahoma. I couldn’t figure out any other better 1-loss team to put into the BCS, pretty much. Even a 1-loss Stanford feels like a reach to me, but Andrew Luck alone may get them into the BCS, in the sense that NFL fans my flock to see the future #1 draft pick.

Quick conference breakdowns:

• ACC: As ecstatic as I was about our victory Saturday, I’m not sure how much it will help our bowl positioning unless we can beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia. I also ended up in the awkward positioning of sending Miami back to the Sun Bowl, which I kind of doubt will happen again. I have Clemson losing again, but to South Carolina.
• Big 12: I still think that Bedlam will probably only act as a NCG stepping stone for Oklahoma State, provided they don’t lose beforehand. I don’t have Mizzou or Texas Tech getting eligible, even with the former delivering a surprise upset this week, and with the latter’s surprise upset being a good reason why they might not make 6-6.
• Big East: I… guess West Virginia’s going to win this conference? Who the heck knows. 
• Big Ten: Michigan suddenly sits pretty at the top of the Big Ten heap, with Michigan State unable to follow up on their Wisconsin win. Wisconsin also suffered a surprising loss to Ohio State, but I still have them winning the Leaders division because Penn State can’t really be for real, can they?
• Pac-12: I still have Oregon beating Stanford. Meanwhile, I think Utah will rally over the back half of their schedule because now they get to play the Colorados and UCLAs of the world. They may even get to 8-4. Either way, with USC not eligible and Cal barely getting in at 6-6, the Pac-12 will come nowhere close to fulfilling its obligations.
• SEC: The SEC elite this year (Alabama and LSU) will almost certainly make BCS bowls as long as neither loses more than once. Unlike in past years, though, the depth of the conference is not that great. Ole Miss and Kentucky are just outright terrible. I have Miss State and Tennessee limping at 6-6. I also have Vandy going 6-6 but for them that’s a pretty good year. The East is down to Georgia and South Carolina, and I think the latter could still lose again in SEC play. I swapped South Carolina and Arkansas in their bowl slots because I had Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl and they already played Arkansas this year – in Dallas, no less. (The Cotton prefers teams from the SEC West, but Auburn may be the only other team in the division that has a winning record.) 
• Independents: I have the Champs Sports Bowl exercising its Notre Dame pick this year, otherwise the Domers will probably fall back to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York City. BYU is already eligible and has an agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl. I don’t think either of the academies will qualify this year. Navy already has 6 losses and according to some sites I’ve seen this already discounts them because the Army game is too late on the calendar. And I’m not sure where they Army team is going to get 3 wins from.
• Mid-majors: The Sun Belt and MAC benefit hugely once again from Big 6 conferences unable to use all their bids. I have 4 eligible Sun Belt teams, including Western Kentucky making its first ever bowl game. The WAC will probably only have 3 eligible teams, one of them being Hawaii. The MAC should produce 6 eligible teams, providing plenty of backup. Hard part is that many of the bowls missing teams are out west, which makes it difficult to say “oh yeah, that’s close, maybe they’ll go there”. Boise will make the BCS provided they don’t lose at some point, and the rest of the Mountain West should fulfill its obligations as teams like Air Force and San Diego State should get their seasons together. And finally, the C-USA title game may be pretty good this year, as Southern Miss is on a collision course for only 1 loss going into the game with Houston. Case Keenum may still be too much for the Golden Eagles, though. Houston almost certainly can’t get into the BCS (due to their schedule) but the C-USA has a good chance of holding onto the Liberty Bowl title, I should think.

All right, that’s that. Hopefully I’ll have more thorough breakdowns next week. Until then.

Okay, so I failed pretty miserably at getting this post-mortem up “later this week”, unless by that I meant “June 10th”. But it’s cool, ’cause it’s not like there’s anything else going on college football right now.

The final tally is in the usual place. This year was fairly mediocre once again, in that I equaled my percentage from last year (50%) by going 18-18. That was mostly due in part to a flawless New Year’s Day.

Most bowl game dates and times for 2011-2012 are set now, so I’ll try to have that up around September or so. All the games from this year returning, but there are (thankfully) no new ones. If you find a schedule online, don’t fret about January 2nd – that happens every time January 1st falls on a Sunday. Of course, this particular year for that to be a worry there has to be a NFL season first. So we’ll see.

First, let me apologize for missing Friday’s Division I Football Championship Game. Congrats to Eastern Washington.

As for my other bowl predictions, well, after going 6-0 on New Year’s Day, well, I’ve gotten a lot worse off. I’m doomed to finish around .500 again, it seems.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 10
8:30: Auburn vs. Oregon (BCS Championship Game @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): This was the hardest single game for me to pick. Usually, that title goes to games like the godaddy.com Bowl, which feature teams from conferences that I frankly don’t see a lot of. But in this case this was because these teams are really a lot alike.
Both have a scorched Earth offense that tends to leave opponents in its dust. Oregon is #1 in total offense, while Auburn is #7, while Auburn is #4 in scoring offense (the Ducks are #1 in that category as well). Both these teams primarily run the ball, as they’re 4th and 5th in the country in rushing (Oregon and Auburn, that is) but merely 49th and 67th in passing.
You already know Auburn’s offense. It starts and ends with Cam Newton. Comparing with Oregon’s primary two offensive weapons, Newton outpassed Devon Thomas and only had 200 yards less rushing than LaMicheal James. There’s a reason why he was a shoe-in for the Heisman, folks.
So what about defense? Ah, that’s where I think the difference will be made. Auburn ranks 54th in the country in scoring and total defense, while Oregon is 12th and 25th, respectively. 54th isn’t terrible, but it isn’t great, either. Auburn’s faced only one other top-10 offense this year, and that was Arkansas. The final score of that game was 65-43, a testament to not only both teams’ lack of a defense but also Auburn’s resiliency. Arkansas led 43-37 at the start of the 4th quarter but Auburn rallied back and without Ryan Mallett Arkansas wasn’t able to respond, as Auburn went on to score 4 unanswered touchdowns. Auburn had many moments like this throughout the year, but at a certain point the offense (by which I mostly mean Newton) was able to respond.
Oregon, meanwhile, had only to only really sweat it out a few times this year. They were down early to Stanford, but rallied and defeated the Cardinal 52-31. Then there was the game in Berkeley, where Cal had the Ducks well and truly on the ropes. They won only 15-13, which is the only time they’ve been held under 30 all season.
So where am I going with all that? Well, for starters, I’m starting to think 38-34 may not be enough points for this game. But that said, I’m picking a narrow Oregon victory here. I think the Ducks’s somewhat more well-rounded offense (I say “somewhat” because I recognize it’s basically two guys to Auburn’s one) can overwhelm Auburn’s average defense. Auburn may be able to respond on offense, but I think Oregon can make enough stops to win.
(On a side note, it’s remarkable how young these teams are. The heart of Oregon’s offense are sophomores. While Newton is junior this his first full year starting, and the guy Auburn fans will point out that I didn’t mention at all – Micheal Dyer – is a freshman and almost had a 1000 yards rushing.)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Auburn, as you may recall, won last year’s thriller of an Outback Bowl, 38-35 over Northwestern. Oregon got blindsided by last year’s version of the Jim Tressel bowl game offense, losing 26-17 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

However it ends up, 2010 has been a fun year in the world of college football, as usual (even if it wasn’t all that great for me, personally). Hopefully I can get around to wrapping things up later this week.

My disaster of a picking season continues as we cover the last six games before the championship.

Fun fact for this set of games: only the Cotton Bowl features two teams that have previously met. Increasing college football’s connectivity is always fun, and is probably the most interesting part of bowl season for me.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 3
8:30: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford (Orange Bowl @ Miami, FL; ESPN): This is one of the games I struggled the most with, hence the 3 point VPI margin. Sure, Stanford could just up and blow these guys off the field. They even might! But part of VPI’s rise from the ashes after the first two games of the season has been their defense and special teams, which in a way is what you would expect. Well, and that Tyrod Taylor guy helps too. He may’ve progressed the most out of any ACC quarterback this year.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Stanford lost last year’s Sun Bowl to Oklahoma, 31-27. That was their first bowl game since 2001. VPI walloped Tennessee in last year’s Chick-fil-a Bowl 37-14 and has been in a bowl every year since 1993.

Tuesday, January 4
8:30: Arkansas vs. Ohio State (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Ohio State is also kind of overrated, in my opinion. They missed the other good Big Ten teams outside of Wisconsin, whom they lost pretty thoroughly too. Arkansas can throw the ball around and over OSU’s secondary and should net a solid win.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Arkansas beat ECU 20-17 in last year’s Liberty Bowl. OSU meanwhile as appeared in a bowl every year since 2000, including the multiple national title games. They won last year’s Rose Bowl 26-17 over Oregon.

Thursday, January 6
8:00: Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (GoDaddy.com Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Why is this game being played now? Hell, why are any of these games being played this late? Who knows! Anyway, provided Miami (of Ohio) isn’t too broken up about losing their coach I think they should be able to beat a MTSU team that just hasn’t rediscovered the spark that made them look like Sun Belt contenders last year.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Miami recovered from last year’s 1-11 disaster and is in the first bowl since the 2004 Independence Bowl, which they lost 17-13 to Iowa State. This is MTSU’s 3rd bowl ever, and they (by which I mean Dwight Dasher” beat Southern Miss 42-32 in last year’s New Orleans Bowl.

Friday, January 7
8:00: Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Louisiana State (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; FOX): Mostly going with TAMU here because of their crazy new offense and because of the way LSU lost a big game to Arkansas at the end of the year. But it’s been a month and a half since then, perhaps they’ve gotten over it? Or maybe, like their coach, they’re too crazy to care?
Previous meetings: It might come as a surprise, but these two have met 48 times, including a series between 1986 and 1995. Their first meeting was in 1906, which TAMU won 22-12. TAMU also won the 1995 game 33-17, but LSU holds an all-time 26-19-3 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: LSU’s been to a bowl every year since 2000 and lost last year’s Capital One Bowl 19-17 to Penn State. TAMU has an on-again, off-again thing with bowl games but they’ve got a streak again, since they lost to UGA in last year’s Independence Bowl, 44-20.

Saturday, January 8
Noon: Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh (BBVA Compass Bowl @ Bimingham, AL; ESPN): I have no idea why I picked Pitt. I wish I could change it. Anyway, the only plausible reason is that UK is extremely mediocre and maybe Pitt will rally around the ‘stache one last time, provided he’s coaching this game. (Because, well, their new coach probably isn’t. If he’s still the new coach then.)
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Kentucky are the kings of the low-tier SEC bowls, having been to 4 straight, including 3 Music City Bowls and one Liberty Bowl. They lost last year’s Music City Bowl to Clemson 21-13. Pitt won last year’s Car Care Bowl 19-17 over UNC.

Sunday, January 9
9:00: Boston College vs. Nevada (Fight Hunger Bowl @ San Francisco, CA; ESPN): Boston College’s primary problem ally has been their inability to score points. I don’t think that’s going to change here. Nevada should cap off a almost very great season with a win here.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: BC has been to a bowl every year since 1999, but since joining the ACC they’ve had to worry greatly about their destination. They lost last year’s Emerald Bowl (i.e., the old name of this game) to USC (yes, that USC) 24-13. Nevada’s been to a bowl every year since 2005, which is not a bad streak at all. They got blown out in last year’s Hawaii Bowl by SMU, 45-10.

Well, that’s it until the national title game. Until then…