Category Archives: bowl games

Bowl Games 2015: Opening Slate

We’ll start off with an overview of Saturday’s games, but of course I’ve updated the schedule page with my predictions for all of the games. Confidence values for ESPN’s bowl pick ’em are tentative, as I’m writing this ahead of time.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 19
2:00: New Mexico vs. Arizona (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Bob Davie’s back in a bowl game! His hometown Lobos have basically no chance, though.
Confidence: 30
Previous Meetings: Being from neighboring states and in the same conference a long time, these two have met 46 times. Unsurpsingly, though, Arizona holds a 43-20-3 advantage, amassed mainly when the two teams met every year from 1920 through 1977. The last two meetings, in 2007 and 2008, went New Mexico’s way, however.
Last bowl game: This is New Mexico’s first bowl game since their 23-0 win over Nevada in the 2007 New Mexico Bowl. This is Arizona’s fourth straight bowl game. They lost to Boise State 38-30 in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Announcers: Eamon McAnaney and Rocky Boiman

3:30: Utah vs. Brigham Young (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): The Holy War is back ahead of schedule, and naturally these two teams are meeting in… Sin City. Hey, at least they’ll still sell the hotel rooms (and the game is sold out). As for the game, Utah would seem to have the advantage, but there’s a large “don’t want to be here” factor in play for the Utes, as they played in this game last year and also probably deserved a better bid with their record. Also, there’s a lot of bad blood in this rivalry these days, which the Utes going off to a Power 5 conference and gaining talent, money, and prestige while the traditional power in the state, BYU, languishes. I have the Utes, but only by a bit.
Confidence: 8
Previous Meetings: Despite what I said above, the Utes actually hold a 54-31-4 advantage all time (though the Cougars are 30-33-1 since 1950). The two previously met every year from 1922 through 2013.
Last bowl game: This is BYU’s tenth straight bowl game, and their first appearance in this one since they appeared in four straight from 2005 through 2009. They lost to Memphis in the Miami Beach Brawl Bowl 55-48 last year. Utah won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl 45-10 over Colorado State.
Announcers: Brent Musburger and Jesse Palmer
Fun fact: Ol’ Brent loves him some sly on-air gambling references, which I’m pretty sure could be the basis of a pretty solid drinking game. On a related note, as of this writing “our friends in arid regions” (as Rece Davis would say) have the Utes by 2.5 or 3.

5:30: Ohio vs. Appalachian State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): Spoiler alert, but this is Appy State’s first ever bowl game. So, yeah, welcome to FBS guys. Wasn’t winning national titles more fun? But hey, at least they’ll get a win.
Confidence: 9
Previous Meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: As spoiled above, this is Appalachian State’s first ever bowl game, since this is the first “real” season of FBS play. The Bobcats had a nice little bowl streak going from 2009 through 2013, but last season they missed a bowl despite going 6-6. They lost the 2013 Beef O’Brady’s bowl to East Carolina 37-20.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Anthony Becht
Fun fact: The camellia, native to East Asia, is the state flower of Alabama. There have also been two other Camellia Bowls. The first, in 1948, pitted Hardin-Simmons against Wichita State in Lafayette, Louisiana. The Shockers lost 49-12 and the game folder after only pulling 5,000 at the game. The Camellia Bowl was then a small-school bowl in Sacramento, California (the “Camellia City”) bowl between 1961-1975 and 1980.

7:00: San Jose State vs. Georgia State (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): “Show me how you do that trick
The one that makes me scream” she said
“The one that makes me laugh” she said
And threw her arms around my neck
“Show me how you do it
And I promise you I promise that
I’ll run away with you
I’ll run away with you”
Spinning on that dizzy edge
I kissed her face and kissed her head
And dreamed of all the different ways I had
To make her glow
“Why are you so far away?” she said
“Why won’t you ever know that I’m in love with you
That I’m in love with you”

You
Soft and only
You
Lost and lonely
You
Strange as angels
Dancing in the deepest oceans
Twisting in the water
You’re just like a dream

Daylight licked me into shape
I must have been asleep for days
And moving lips to breathe her name
I opened up my eyes
And found myself alone alone
Alone above a raging sea
That stole the only girl I loved
And drowned her deep inside of me

You
Soft and only
You
Lost and lonely
You
Just like heaven
I’m going with the Panthers.
Confidence: 10
Previous Meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is the Spartans’s first bowl since the 2012 Military Bowl, where they beat Bowling Green 29-20. After going 1-23 in their first two seasons, this is Georgia State’s first ever bowl game.
Announcers: Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor
Fun fact: I was so hoping ESPN’s Robert Smith would be around for this, but alas, the game is on CBS Sports Network. As for what the game is trying to cure, proceeds from the game will go toward the Breast Cancer Research Foundation.

9:00: Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas State (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Louisiana Tech cruised through a lot of their C-USA schedule, but it was perphaps a sign when they lost 17-15 to UTEP, as they got thumped 58-24 by Souther Mississippi the last week of the season. Arkansas State had a pretty solid season in the Sun Belt, by which I mean they ran the table in the conference and won most of those games pretty thoroughly. I’m giving the Red Wolves a slight edge here.
Confidence: 11
Previous Meetings: 38 of ’em, if you can believe it. They met most every year from 1956 through 1998, and the Bulldogs are 26-12 all-time. They also two, with 1998’s 69-21 win being the most recent.
Last bowl game: Louisiana Tech beat Illinois in last year’s Zombie Cotton Bowl 35-18. This actually caught me a bit by surprise, but this is Arkansas State’s fifth straight bowl game. They lost to Toledo in last season’s GoDaddy Bowl, 63-44.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Kelly Stouffer

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 5

They’re up relatively early this week, so have at them.

This will be a brief writeup. First off, I’m bringing back my contenders chart for this year. Here’s what it looks like after this weekend:


Oklahoma’s defeat of Baylor moved them in for me, but there’s still plenty of time for the Big 12 to eat its own children.

This week, I’m back up to three unfilled bowl slots. Again, I want to stress I’ve never gotten this late into the season short of teams. We’re liable to have a real problem on our hands in a few weeks unless there’s some more wacky upsets.

Not much else is notable this week. Next week will almost certainly change everything again, especially with regards to the Big 12. So, until then…

Bowl Games 2014: Final

And thus, the 2014-2015 college football season is concluded.

My final results are up, but if you don’t want to click the link, then I’ll put it here: I went 23-16 this year (which means I am now 274-220 overall). I got off to a pretty strong start, but other than going perfect on New Year’s Eve I pretty much faded down the stretch. In particular, New Year’s Day was a disaster for me, as I missed three out of the five games. Afterward, I failed to really recover, going 2-5 down the stretch.

But hey, there’s a reason why I always say, “all predictions wrong”. Nonetheless, I do continue to get more than half of them right. Perhaps next year I’ll start comparing myself against the spread or use other metrics than just wins and losses, but that’ll be determined sometime next December I suspect.

Some closing thoughts on the season as a whole.

  • For starters, my Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets finished eight in the AP Poll, blissfully one spot ahead of Georgia and Tech’s best ranking since finishing ninth after the 1998 season. I never expected this sort of season, but neither did anyone else. Next year, it is unlikely we will surprise anyone. With Justin Thomas returning, I suspect we will start the season ranked in the top 15, and maybe even the top 10.
  • How about those Buckeyes? They committed four turnovers and won by 22, which really means that it wasn’t even that close.
  • Will we see a shift in the perception of the power five conferences after this? I believe that we’re back to some real parity in college football. The only way we can really tell, though, is if we get more power five teams playing each other during the season. We’ll see how that shakes out when we do our usual out-of-conference schedule rankings. Suffice it to say, though, reports of the Big Ten’s death were greatly exaggerated.

And with that, this site will be mostly dormant again through the spring and summer. That said, do look for some content relatively soon, as arguably my favorite part of the World Cup will start up again this spring: qualifying.

Until then.

Bowl Games 2014: The Big One

And here it is.

While I don’t think a four-team playoff is really ideal, this is the closet we’ve got for now in major college football. Let’s enjoy it for what it is.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 12
8:30: Oregon vs. Ohio State (College Football Playoff National Championship @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): There are better, and more in-depth, previews than I can provide here. But I’ll high the highlights. For starters, let’s talk about the games that proceeded this one.
I think most of us expected Oregon to beat Florida State, but goodness I don’t think anyone expected the annihilation that occurred, largely of FSU’s own doing. It’s hard to survive five turnovers against anyone (where was that against us in the ACC title game?), but against the most efficient offense in the country? Forget about it.
Ohio State over Alabama will be the upset of the year, provided the Buckeyes lose this game. Like many others, I gave them no shot, what with their backup-backup quarterback against a Nick Saban defense. Forget about it, right? Well, not so much. Ohio State go off to a slow start, but they came out in the second half and dominated the game.
What’s at stake for these teams? For Oregon, it has to be a little validation, I would think. In their current run of success (with Pac-10/12 titles in 2009, 2010, 2011, and this season), the national title has eluded the Ducks. They made the title game in the 2010 season, only to be beat by Cam Newton and company, starting the narrative that they just weren’t tough enough to challenge the all-mighty SEC. Indeed, I can’t help but wonder if Duck partisans feel a bit cheated that their path to the national title won’t have Alabama or any other SEC school in it.
For Ohio State, in many ways, this is a team that is almost playing with house money, which feels a bit weird to say about a team with the sort of historical success they Buckeyes have had, but hear me out. This is the second season since the 2012 team that went 12-0 but was on sanctions. No one gave them any chance after they lost Braxton Miller, and then no one gave them any chance after the loss to Virginia Tech. (Indeed, the weirdest thing about reading recaps of that game are the bits about how it’s a solid victory for VPI and a way for them to get back in the national discussion. Uh, not so much, as it turns out!) No one gave them a chance to beat Alabama. Yet, here we are.
As for the game itself, I expect points. These two teams boast two of the most efficient offenses in the nation. Their defenses are also pretty similar, though the Big Ten still has enough plodding offenses to skew the numbers somewhat. Overall, I came in thinking this one was going to be hard to call, and the research I have done so far has only supported this. I guess this is true of most games, but this one is really going to come down which team plays better tonight. I think Oregon is still slightly better, so that’s going to be my guess.
Confidence: not applicable, as to win the group I’m in I have to pick strategically and go with Ohio State.
Previous meetings: Eight, actually, and Ohio State has won all of them. The first was all the way back in the 1957-58 Rose Bowl, which the Buckeyes won 10-7. Apparently they hit it off, as the two teams met in the regular season four time in the 60’s. Another home-and-home occurred in 1983 and 1987, but that was it until Ohio State’s 26-17 upset of Oregon in the 2009-2010 Rose Bowl.
Last bowl game: This is Oregon’s tenth straight bowl game, going back to a 17-14 loss to Oklahoma in the 2005 Holiday Bowl. They beat Texas 30-7 in last season’s Alamo Bowl. Thanks to their 2012 sanctions, Ohio State didn’t go to a bowl that year despite going 12-0. If they had, their bowl streak would stretch back all the way back to the 1989 season. Instead, their streak is now two, and last year they lost to Clemson in the Orange Bowl, 40-35.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

Bowl Games 2014: The Run-Up

Let’s go ahead and do the last six bowl games before the title game.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, January 2
Noon: Houston vs. Pittsburgh (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): Houston’s defense is pretty good, but they haven’t faced James Connor yet. I like Pitt a lot in this one.
Confidence: 37
Previous meetings: Two. Houston won the first in 1996, 42-35, and Pitt won the second in 1997, 35-24.
Last bowl game: The Cougars lost last year’s Birmingham Bowl to Vanderbilt, 41-24. This is Pitt’s sixth straight bowl game, with the streak starting with one of the worst games of all time, a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the 2008 Sun Bowl. They beat Bowling Green in last year’s Little Ceasar’s Bowl, 30-27.
Announcers: Tom Hart and Matt Stinchcomb

3:20: Iowa vs. Tennessee (Taxslayer Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN): The Vols are a young team that got better as the season went on. Meanwhile, I just plain don’t like the Hawkeyes, and nothing in their last four games is helping my perception of them at all. In terms of numbers, these teams are basically identically, so I’m going with my gut and picking Tennessee.
Confidence: 23
Previous meetings: Two. The first was in the 1982 Peach Bowl, which Iowa won 28-22. Tennessee won the second in 1987, 23-22.
Last bowl game: The Hawkeyes won lost last year’s Outback Bowl, 21-14 to LSU. Tennessee’s last postseason appearance was in the 2010 Music City Bowl, a 30-27 loss to North Carolina.
Announcers: Mark Jones and Rod Gilmore

6:45: Kansas State vs. California-Los Angeles (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): I just never figured out what the heck to do with UCLA this year. In the second half of the year, it looked they turned the proverbial corner, putting together a solid five game winning streak. Any good feelings in Westwood were promptly destroyed by the Stanford Cardinal and their 31-10 plowing of the Bruins. Kansas State, however, was perfectly predictable in their three loses. So I’m going with the consistent team over one that flashes very occasional flashes of brilliance.
Confidence: 24
Previous meetings: Two. The Bruins won the first meeting in 2009, 23-9, while K-State won the second in 2010, 31-22.
Last bowl game: This is K-State’s fifth straight bowl game, going back to the 2010 loss in the Pinstripe Bowl to Syracuse, 36-34. They beat Michigan in last year’s Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (the Tempe one), 31-14. This is UCLA’s fourth straight bowl game, dating to a 20-14 loss to Illinois in the 2011 Fight Hunger Bowl. They whipped Virginia Tech 42-12 in last year’s Sun Bowl.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Brock Huard

10:15: Oklahoma State vs. Washington (Cactus Bowl @ Tempe, AZ; ESPN): Neither of these teams have sterling records or great wins, other than the Cowboys’s fluky overtime win over Oklahoma. By the numbers, though, it’s not close: Washington is demonstrably better on both offense and defense, and I expect those indications to carry the day here in this nightcap.
Confidence: 27
Previous meetings: Two. Washington won the first in 1980, 24-18, and Oklahoma State won the second in 1985, 31-17.
Last bowl game: This is the ninth straight bowl game for the Cowboys, dating back to the 2006 Independence Bowl, which they won 34-31 over Alabama. They lost to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl last year, 41-31. This is Washington’s fifth straight bowl game, starting with a 19-7 win over Nebraska in the 2010 Holiday Bowl. They beat BYU in the Fight Hunger Bowl last year, 31-16.
Announcers: Dave Flemming and Danny Kannell

Saturday, January 3
1:00: Florida vs. East Carolina (Birmingham Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Why did I pick East Carolina? I continue to have zero faith in the Florida offense’s ability to anything, ever. ECU wound up having a disappointing season, honestly, but I doubt they’re going to have to worry about the Gators putting up 30 on them, which is about what it appears to have taken to beat ECU this year.
Confidence: 25
Previous meetings: Just one, a regular season matchup in 1983. The Gators won 24-17.
Last bowl game: The the Gators took a break last year, so this is their first bowl game since that 33-23 loss to Louisville in the 2012-3 Sugar Bowl. This is the third straight bowl game for the Pirates. In 2012, they lost to UL-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl. Last year, they beat Ohio 37-20 in the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Andre Ware

Sunday, January 4
9:00: Toledo vs. Arkansas State (GoDaddy Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): I guess I could be accused of having an anti-Sun Belt bias, but well I just couldn’t bring myself to pick the Red Wolves over the Rockets. Apologies to all my readers out in Jonesboro.
Confidence: 26
Previous meetings: Two. Toledo has won both, with a 43-28 victory in 1990 and a 49-0 win in 1992.
Last bowl game: This is Toledo’s first bowl game since the 2012 Potato Bowl, where they got routed 41-15 by Utah State. This is Arkansas State’s fourth straight(!) GoDaddy Bowl. In 2011, they lost to Northern Illinois 38-20, and last year they beat Ball State 23-20.
Announcers: Allen Bestwick and Ray Bentley