Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 4

It’s that time again, and you’ll find the latest predictions here.

Notes and tidbits:

  • This week I needed 5 5-7 teams, down from 7 last week. The trajectory is good, but we’ll need some big upsets to get all the way there.
  • The Sun Belt has 9 teams qualified, and they’re certainly doing their part to plug a lot of gaps left by the decimated Conference USA.
  • Speaking of the Sun Belt, while James Madison lost their NCAA petition, barring a lot of upsets, they’ll still get a bowl game at least. As a reminder, they would get in before any 5-7 team.
  • Once again, unlike JMU, I don’t think Jacksonville State can get in this year since this is the first year of their FCS to FBS transition.
  • Since Army and Navy aren’t already qualified, I don’t see them making it since the bowls are announced a week before they play. In addition, Army is 5-6 and played two FCS teams. Navy plays SMU this weekend and if they win, they’ll get in, but I see that as… unlikely.
  • For the playoff picture, I realized that the Committee will likely rank the undefeated teams ahead of any 1-loss team, so Oregon slides down to the 4th spot.
  • And finally, I needed no shenanigans to get Georgia Tech in, which is something I haven’t been able to safely do since 2018. That said, I really suspect we’re going to get the Sun Bowl or some such.

Playoff tiers:

  • First tier: Georgia (undefeated SEC champ), undefeated Big Ten champ (Michigan or Ohio State), Florida State (undefeated ACC champ), undefeated/one-loss Pac-12 champ (Washington or Oregon)
  • Second tier: Texas (1-loss Big 12 champ)
  • Third tier: 1-loss Big Ten non-champ (Michigan or Ohio State)
  • Fourth tier: 1-loss SEC champ (Alabama or (if only) Georgia), Washington (1-loss Pac-12 runner-up)
  • In other words: if Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, or Oregon win out, they’re in. I’m aware of the Jordan Travis injury for FSU but if they’re undefeated they’re in.
  • Texas, if they win out, is probably ahead of any 1-loss team that isn’t Oregon, though I could see Washington staying above them.
  • We’d need a lot of weird upsets in the next two weeks to even really start talking about Louisville getting in. This is pretty much the whole field as I see it.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Louisville @ Miami (ABC): As multiple outlets have noted, this week is not exactly the best. Let’s consider this game, which is relatively close to a marquee matchup compared to everything else. As such, I’ve also thrown in some FCS rivalries, including at least one that will probably be worth figuring out ESPN+ for. As for this one? Well, I don’t think the Cardinals are that good, but I don’t trust the canes.
  • Michigan @ Maryland (FOX): By far one of the most amusing things to come out of the Harbaugh in-game-only suspension is the fans of multiple other fanbases that wish their head coach could be banned from the sideline on gameday. Oh and the Wolverines will roll. Whether or not we’ll do another week of acting like Jim Harbaugh is dead is TBD.
  • Oklahoma @ Brigham Young (ESPN): Ordinarily, this is where I would say traveling to Provo is a good way to get knocked around but… yeah the Sooners are going to be okay.
  • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (ESPN2): Okay this one could well actually be a banger. Sure, Memphis isn’t actually good, but they can score some points when they want to, and are more than capable of getting the Mustangs a game. I don’t think it’ll be enough to win, but there it is.
  • Rutgers @ Pennsylvania State (FS1): Penn State will presumably be saddled with James Franklin for the foreseeable future, in which case they are probably elated that they will no longer have to play both Michigan and Ohio State every year. After all, if you’re always going to go to 10-2, why not spice it up with some USC or Oregon?
  • Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern just elevated their interim to the head coaching job, as since they’re sitting on 5 wins it’s reasonable to say that maybe this job isn’t as hard as the previous coach was making it look? (It totally is, though.) Also they’ll probably get to a bowl!
  • Michigan State @ Indiana (BTN): I don’t have to watch this game and you can’t make me. Also, uh, Hoosiers?
  • East Carolina @ Navy (ESPNEWS): Navy?
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Mississippi (SEC): Lane Kiffin teams failing to climb the mountain and beat the SEC teams that are obviously better than them (like Bama and Georgia) is almost Franklin-esque at this point. Suffice it to say they’ll be fine here.
  • Coastal Carolina @ Army (CBSS): Army is completely baffling to me, so I guess they could win this, but I don’t think they will.
  • Harvard @ Yale (“The Game”; ESPNU)
  • Tulane @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Abiliene Christian @ Texas A&M (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPN+)
  • Tennessee-Chattanooga @ Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Lafayette @ Lehigh (“The Rivalry”; ESPN+)

1:00: Massachusetts @ Liberty (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Hawaii @ Wyoming (Team1Sports)
  • Appalachian State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Texas-El Paso @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Kent State @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Charlotte (ESPN+)
  • Montana State @ Montana (“Brawl of the Wild”; ESPN+): Watch this. Seriously.

2:30:

  • Arizona @ Utah (Pac12): Zona is better than anyone expected, yes, but after a brief 1-week swoon against the Ducks Utah is apparently rejuvenated. I mean, they’re still super hurt, but they’re back to their normal “making you feel like you got hit by a ton of bricks” selves.
  • Cincinnati @ West Virginia (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Duke @ Virginia (The CW): Duke’s quarterback situation still makes me hesitant to pick them, but yeah they should totally beat UVA here.
  • Nevada @ Colorado State (MWN)
  • Texas State @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)
  • North Texas @ Tulsa (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Wake Forest @ Notre Dame (NBC): Sam Hartman will play against his old team, and presumably also completely rip them to shreds.
  • Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS): As said elsewhere, if this is the week where the Joe Milton deep ball finally pays off for the Vols this could be interesting. Alas, it probably won’t be.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (ABC): Everyone’s favorite color-on-color game will be a fantastic demonstration of both “unstoppable force meets immovable object” and “very stoppable force meets extremely movable object”. UCLA plays pretty good defense and is a non-entity on offense, whereas USC is absolutely all gas and no brakes. I know USC lost last week to Utah, but even on their 3rd-string QB Utah is still, like, capable on offense. I don’t think UCLA will be able to keep up with USC, even with plenty of help from USC’s “defense”.
  • North Carolina @ Clemson (ESPN): By using advanced statistical and analytic methods (read: how my team fared against these teams), I’ve determined Clemson will by approximately one million points.
  • Illinois @ Iowa (FS1): Nah.
  • Louisiana @ Troy (NFLN): This is normally a marquee matchup on the west side of the Sun Belt, but, well, the Cajuns aren’t especially Ragin’ this year.
  • North Carolina State @ Virginia Tech (ACCN): Virginia Tech has been playing better, and I think they’ll get to a bowl, but it won’t be this week, as the Wolfpack need to fulfill their 8-4 destiny.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Air Force (CBSS): We’ve gotten reports that the issue with Air Force is that they “really like giving the other team the ball” to explain their bizarre losses the past couple of weeks. Suffice it to say, the team that would winthe  “comeback team of the year” award, if such thing existed, will likely be more than happy to continue to assist.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (“The Revivalry”; ESPN+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
  • Bethun-Cookman @ Florida A&M (“Florida Classic” @ Orlando, FL; ESPNU)

4:00:

  • Oregon @ Arizona State (FOX): Ducks.
  • Oklahoma State @ Houston (ESPN2): Houston is… not good, but by all indications Oklahoma State just decided they won the season by beating Oklahoma. I’m still going to pick them, but the fact I have to question this at all is an indictment.
  • Minnesota @ Ohio State (BTN): Buckeyes.
  • New Mexico State @ Auburn (SEC): Quick shout out to the Aggies here, who are also having a season no one saw coming. Even if (when) they get pulverized by Auburn, they still have plenty to feel good about.

5:00:

  • Central Florida @ Texas Tech (FS2): Texas Tech is sneakily very okay, and I think they’ll give UCF plenty of trouble.
  • Marshall @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

6:00: Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

6:30:

  • North Alabama @ Florida State (The CW)
  • California @ Stanford (“The Big Game”; Pac12): Stanford is bad bad, but I just have no read on this Cal team. Cal should win, to be clear, but this is very much the kind of game where everything weird that can happen happens.

7:00:

  • Kansas State @ Kansas (“The Sunflower Showdown”; FS1): With KU on their third quarterback, the intrigue level of this game has dropped somewhat, but anytime this game is actually good it’s fun. And it should be fun.
  • Boise State @ Utah State (CBSS): Boise isn’t Boise this year, but Utah State is also very much in the “bad bad” zone.

7:30:

  • Washington @ Oregon State (ABC): And finally, the game of the day. And what a game it should be. UDub hasn’t looked quite right since they beat Oregon, but they’re still undefeated. Oregon State as just been quietly knocking the heads off the bottom half of the Pac-12 all season long. Oregon Sate is actually favored here by “our friends in the desert”, and the home environment in Corvallis for a night game is one of the best, and that’s before you start to consider things like “Washington killed the Pac-12 and left us to rot”. I’m still picking Washington here. But they can get got here, for sure.
  • Nebraska @ Wisconsin (NBC): Nebraska’s quarterback situation is more-or-less a disaster, and it’s not really because of injuries, they’re just… not good. Wisconsin meanwhile has been suffering their own growing pains under a first-year head coach. I still like the Badgers at home, but, well, this won’t be the same kind of game the one in Corvallis will be, that’s for sure.
  • Florida @ Missouri (ESPN): I don’t know what’s wrong with Florida, other than they’re going to lose by 20 to Mizzou here.
  • Florida International @ Arkansas (ESPNU): Hogs should have this one.
  • Kentucky @ South Carolina (SEC): This could be the one game this season where Spencer Rattler Figures It Out, but it seems more likely Kentucky is just going to run over and around South Carolina all night long.

8:00:

  • Texas @ Iowa State (FOX): Here’s a sneaky co-headliner for you. Texas is, of course, is sitting on one-loss and very much fancies themselves a playoff contender. Iowa State, of course, has shaken off some very dire play back in September to reel off some wins against the bottom of the Big 12. They’re playing better, but better enough to beat a Texas team with a hurt starting QB? I don’t think so, but it may be worth keeping an eye on.
  • Georgia State @ Louisiana State (ESPN2): LSU’s defense is still the greatest instance of defensive malpractice this side of USC, but they’ll be fine here.
  • Syracuse @ Georgia Tech (ACCN): Okay, so we all know the deal here. Everything that went well against Virginia more or less went exactly the opposite against Clemson, both disrupting the odd week think and the “playing to the level of our opponents” thing. The main theme of the season has been inconsistency. While the play has been better at times, there’s still a lot of little mistakes that can add up in a hurry when you play teams that have more talent than you (or, in the Bowling Green case, less talent). This has still been a much more fun football product than the last four seasons combined, and I’m just hoping we can see it out these last two weeks.

10:30:

  • New Mexico @ Fresno State (FS1): I still haven’t gotten a good explanation for how Fresno got absolutely walloped by San Jose State last week. That said, no worries here for the Bulldogs.
  • San Diego State @ San Jose State (CBSS): So apparently SJSU is awesome this year, they just hadn’t shown it until last week against Fresno. I expect them to follow that up in similar fashion against a bad SDSU team with a now lame-duck head coach.

 

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 3

They’re here!

This week I was only 7 teams short thanks to some upsets, but regardless we’re going to need to a lot more to get to the number we need.

As promised, here’s some insight into my thought process:

  • I always start with the CFP and the New Year’s Six bowl games. I expect Michigan, Georgia, Oregon, Florida State, and Texas to win out. This means someone will be left out. It may be ideal for Texas to get Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game to see if they can avenge their Red River loss, otherwise I think Oregon will have an edge over them.
  • The Group of Five New Year’s Six team is much less certain this year. Tulane may have the insight track to make it two in a row after Air Force has collapsed the past two weeks.
  • Thanks to the timing of their losses, Missouri has likely jumped Ole Miss for the third New Year’s Six spot from the SEC.
  • The ESPN Events bowl situation remains a mess for folks like me, an issue that makes trying to predict basically all of the pre-Christmas bowl games very difficult.
  • While James Madison will likely get into a bowl game regardless of what happens with their waiver. That said, the waiver may affect what game they go to, since nominally every spot is supposed to be filled before the backup pool of teams is used. This may or may not matter since every Sun Belt bowl game is owned by ESPN Events.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ABC): Wait, hold on, we played a team last week that we should’ve beat and handled them easily? What team is this? Is this the same team that lost to Bowling Green? The same team that hasn’t had a winning record since Week 1 of 2020? That hasn’t even been close to bowling since 2018? I have no idea what to expect anymore.
  • Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): So we’re all familiar with how this is going to go now, right? Penn State will stick around and occasionally threaten, but at the end of the day the Big Win™ still eludes James Franklin and company. I still have no reason to believe otherwise.
  • Alabama @ Kentucky (ESPN): I want to believe, but yeah, now that Bama has figured out a QB rushing attack, it’s over. Over, I tell you.
  • Tulsa @ Tulane (ESPN2): Tulane by a lot.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas (FS1): While Kansas doesn’t really have any sort of inside track to the Big 12 title game (that’s Oklahoma State now) they’re definitely favored to take care of business here.
  • Indiana @ Illinois (BTN): I still get BTN only in standard definition, so any reason to behold this game is further diminished. Uh, Illini I guess?
  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (SEC): South Carolina is bad this year, but Vandy remains even worse.
  • Virginia Tech @ Boston College (ACCN): This is definitely an ACC game that’s happening. BC.
  • Maryland @ Nebraska (Peacock)
  • Temple @ South Florida (ESPN+)

1:00 Old Dominion @ Liberty (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (The CW): I don’t really want to look this up, but it certainly feels like NC State leads the league in appearances on the CW. Which, I say, more power to you! That’s nationally broadcast television! (Mostly.) Either way, I don’t think I’ve watched the Wolfpack at all this year, but I have seen Wake Forest, and they should be fine.
  • Arizona @ Colorado (Pac12): I keep having a tough time remembering Arizona is the Arizona school that’s good this season against all expectations and not Arizona State. Once again, Colorado’s Pac 12 difficulties figure to continue.
  • Connecticut @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Appalachian State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)
  • Troy @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Memphis @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Baylor @ Kansas State (ESPN+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Missouri (CBS): This might be one of the better games of the day, in all honestly. While Tennessee’s offense has been slightly off all season, they’re still pretty good. Mizzou, of course, has defied all expectations in becoming pretty solidly the 2nd best team in the SEC East this season. Add in what figures to be a crowd that has been oft-disappointed in Columbia, and I think there’s a good recipe for something interesting here.
  • Utah @ Washington (FOX): I feel a bit for the Utes. The defense is still good-to-great, but they’re just running out of bodies. Penix and company have looked more mortal in recent weeks, but the Huskies just figure to have too much firepower.
  • Minnesota @ Purdue (NBC): I won’t watch this game and you can’t make me. Gophers?
  • Miami @ Florida State (ABC): I know this is a rivalry and all, but I just see no way the Canes win this one.
  • Oklahoma State @ Central Florida (ESPN): The Pokes won Bedlam, and all they have to do to win out is beat UCF, BYU, and Cincinnati. You know, the three teams that have yet to beat any pre-existing Big 12 team. All you gotta do is not blow it Pokes, and you’ll get a shot at Texas in December. That’s all you gotta do.
  • Northwestern @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin is still figuring somethings out, but probably not “lose to Northwestern” levels of figuring things out.
  • Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse (@New York, NY; ACCN): This is being played in Yankee Stadium for some reason? Sure. Either way, this figures to be an Iowa-esque low-scoring defensive slapfest, and the experts in that arena are definitely on the Pittsburgh sidelines.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Navy (CBSS): Blazers, I guess?
  • Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
  • Texas State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Washington State @ California (ESPN2): It’s not going the way Wazzu might’ve liked for their last year in the Pac-12 as we know it. They’ve now lost 5 straight, some of them understandable, but the most recent one suggests they’re just a bit snakebit: a 10-7 loss to a bad Stanford team. I’m not sure a trip to Berkeley is what they need to fix things, but just about anything can happen at Cal, and I think they might be able to get back up.
  • Auburn @ Arkansas (SEC): Yes, Arkansas definitely looked more like themselves after making a change at coordinator and upsetting Florida last weekend, but Auburn seems to be trending upward at the right time.
  • East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)

5:00: Arkansas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

5:30: Stanford @ Oregon State (Pac12): Beavers all the way here.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma (FOX): With their loss to Oklahoma State, the Sooners no longer control their Pac-12 destiny. That said, nothing remaining on their schedule suggests that they at least will be able to control what they can control: winning out.
  • Mississippi @ Georgia (ESPN): I want to believe… that Lane’s offense can show up for a big game for the first time in a while. I want to believe.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (FS1): Houston beating Baylor says a lot about how bad Baylor’s been this year. Cincy’s been worse.
  • Georgia Southern @ Marshall (NFLN): Southern is coming up a baffling blowout loss to Texas State last week, but I think they’re still in the driver’s seat against most Sun Belt competition.
  • San Diego State @ Colorado State (CBSS): In perhaps the “well, somebody has to win” game of the year, I guess I’m going with the Rams? Sure, let’s put that down.

7:30:

  • Texas @ Texas Christian (ABC): While the loss to Colorado to start the year is still baffling, it hasn’t really gotten that much better for the Frogs. And it doesn’t figure to get better here. I suspect they might be looking forward to the Revivalry next week.
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (NBC): This is a rough week, eh? Ohio State occasionally messes around for a bit and turns on the jets (read: remembers that they have a human cheat code lining up at WR named “Marvin Harrison, Jr”) but I suspect this one will be over by the end of the first quarter.
  • Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (ESPN2): Both of these teams have a lot of problems, but “not being able to score” is only a problem for one of them. Aggies figure to be able to relax just a tad this week.
  • Rice @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPNU): Meep meep.
  • Florida @ Louisiana State (SEC): Rarely the best SEC non-rivalry rivalry game, but often the strangest. I think Florida’s loss last week to Arkansas sets them perfectly to win this one. Yes, I know it’s LSU at home at night.

8:00: Duke @ North Carolina (ACCN): Okay, I know Duke is basically without a quarterback now, but UNC’s defense is just such a disaster. I think the Heels will ultimately win, but Duke can definitely keep it within a couple of scores.

9:00: Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): The Sun Devils let Utah work out some frustration last week to the tune of a 55-3 drubbing. UCLA might be able to visit the same upon them.

10:00: New Mexico @ Boise State (FS1): Lobos, losing two straight to the Nevada schools does not inspire a great deal of confidence even against a down year Boise State team.

10:15: Iowa State @ Brigham Young (ESPN): In September, I would’ve said BYU easily. But as bad as September looked for the Cyclones, they’ve gotten right and clearly shown they’re still a cut above the Big 12’s bottom dwellers.

10:30:

  • Southern California @ Oregon (FOX): USC finally fired Alex Grinch after UDub drubbed their defense. That said, a week doesn’t figure to be enough to figure it out, especially when they’ll have to go on the road to Autzen for a November night game, which is rarely fun for anybody.
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Okay, I don’t gamble, but if I did… what in the world is the spread in this game. SJSU -1? As a team with a losing record against a physical, tough, one-loss Fresno State team? Per SP+, Fresno is essentially a 10 point favorite. What are we doing here?!?

11:00: Air Force @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

Bowl Predictions 2023: Week 2

They’re actually here this time, and fully filled out even!

Let’s talk a little about the process. What I do is examine each team’s remaining schedule and roughly source based on their projected final record. In the past, I used to just sort of wing it, but these days I use SP+ to determine the winners and losers. SP+ is very predictive, but that does mean I don’t really account for upsets until they happen. So it’s common that I’ll be short a bunch of teams, but the gaps are filled in a bit as upsets occur.

This week I was nine teams short which means that NCAA Division I Bylaw 18.7.2 applies. Here’s a summary of how eligible (or “deserving” in NCAA-speak) teams are determined:

  1. You finish with a .500 record or better in games against FBS teams and no more than 1 FCS team (that gives enough scholarships).
  2. You would’ve finished with a .500 record or better, but you lost the conference title game (aka the “UCLA and Georgia Tech” rule).

So that got me to 72 bowl eligible teams. The problem is that there are 40 bowl games, so I need 80. What’s a guy to do? Well, turns out the NCAA thought of that. Here’s the deal:

  1. You can count 1 FCS win, even if that FCS school didn’t give out enough scholarships.
  2. If you played 13 games and finished with a 6-7 record.
  3. You’re a team that’s in its final year of reclassifying from FCS to FBS. Currently only James Madison fits this criteria.
  4. From then on, we go by Academic Progress Rate, or APR.

What APR is (or isn’t) doesn’t matter much for our purposes. What matters is that we can essentially use to find more teams.

It took some doing, but I got there. Again, check out the page for all the games. I’ll discuss the process more next week as well.