Author Archives: ASimPerson

Rating the 2018 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

First up is the ACC. FCS teams are indicated in italics and a “N-” prefix indicates a neutral site game. Onward!

  1. Florida State (2 legit, 1 FCS): Samford, Northern Illinois, @Notre Dame, Florida. It may top the list, but this isn’t an interesting OOC slate, per se, thanks to Florida being an annual rivalry and Notre Dame being a quasi-ACC member.
  2. Pittsburgh (1.25, 1): Albany, Pennsylvania State, @Central Florida, @Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Pitt gets credit for getting Penn State on the schedule, and that road trip to Orlando could definitely be a thing. This is the sort of schedule that, if they actually had any hope, could actually #PutPuttIn.
  3. Georgia Tech (1.25, 1): Alcorn State, @South Florida, Bowling Green, @Georgia. The Tennessee game last year was fun, but of course wound up being a stomach punch in a way that few other Georgia Tech games have been in the 15 years since I matriculated at MaTech. Suffice it to say, Alcorn State will be much less stressful.
  4. Louisville (1, 1): N-Alabama, Indiana State, Western Kentucky, Kentucky. I took a quick look to figure out if there were any other notable Indiana State alumni other than Larry Bird, who will presumably be mentioned often on the broadcast of that game. The answer, as it turns out, is “no, not really”.
  5. Miami (1,1): N-Louisiana State, Savannah State, @Toledo, Florida International. Strap in, because in addition to UCF and USF above, we’ve got some weird G5 road games coming. First up is the Canes going to… Toledo of all places. Oh, and yeah, they’ve got a neutral site opener with LSU, which should pretty quickly prove whether the current conventional wisdom about both of those teams is correct or not.
  6. Syracuse (1, 1): @Western Michigan, Wagner, Connecticut, N-Notre Dame. See what I mean? Though to Western Michigan’s credit, they’ve done a pretty good job over the years of getting major teams to visit. To be honest, I’ve been expecting this sort of arrangement to become more common for years because it allows major programs to save some money.
  7. Virginia Tech (1, 1): William & Mary, East Carolina, @Old Dominion, Notre Dame. I really feel like I shouldn’t count Notre Dame for ACC teams at all. Maybe next year.
  8. Wake Forest (1, 1): @Tulane, Towson, Notre Dame, Rice. To continue the thought from above, the rating system says this is a more interesting schedule than Clemson’s. Yes, TAMU isn’t rated as a 1, but again Notre Dame is sorta-kinda-basically in the ACC anyway. Let’s just agree that Clemson should be ranked, say, 6th instead of 9th.
  9. Clemson (0.75, 1): Furman, @Texas A&M, Georgia Southern, South Carolina. Since I used up most of my thoughts about Clemson’s schedule above, let’s take a moment to appreciate the actual road game against a Power-5 opponent. That’s a trend I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing take-off, the good ol’ fashioned home-and-home.
  10. North Carolina State (0.5, 1): James Madison, Georgia State, West Virginia, @Marshall. NC State is looking to be the masters of the state of West Virginia, I guess.
  11. North Carolina (0.25, 1): @California, @East Carolina, Central Florida, Western Carolina. Ah, just a South Carolina away from having all of the Carolinas! Alas. That said, this should rate higher for the road trip out to Berkeley, though I suspect that game won’t be quite as much Culture Shock Central as when Ole Miss visited a few years ago.
  12. Duke (0.25, 1): Army, @Northwestern, @Baylor, North Carolina Central. This is about as bad of a rating as you can get with a schedule that features two Power 5 teams, but UNC edged them out with the road trip to Berkeley and a game with the Defending National Champions.
  13. Boston College (0, 1): Massachusetts, Holy Cross, @Purdue, Temple. Am I saying that with this schedule Purdue is a more interesting matchup than Indiana? Yes. Also, Temple is occasionally spicy, so there’s some credit there too.
  14. Virginia (0, 1.5): Richmond, @Indiana, Ohio, Liberty. Liberty is transitioning to FBS right now, so they count as half-a-FCS team. Other than that, there’s another road game. I guess these ACC schedules are going to be stack with home games in a year or two or something.

Rating the 2018 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

So, as per usual, my brother and I have recently completed the exercise of rating every Power 5 team’s conference schedule for the 2018 season. You can read a general overview of the process here, so I’ll cut straight to the chase.

We rated 73 different teams this year. Non-P5 teams that merited a rating higher than 0 were Defending National Champions Central Florida (0.25), Houston (0.25), South Florida (0.25), and Boise State (0.5). 26 of the 73 teams were rated as 0, 11 as 0.25, 10 as 0.5, just 3 as 0.75, and 23 got a 1.

Those 23 were: Alabama, Auburn, California-Los Angeles, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Louisiana State, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pennsylvania State, Southern California, Stanford, Texas, Texas Christian, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The average rating for all teams was 0.45.

Here are the average ratings for each conference:

  1. Big 12 (0.525)
  2. Pac-12 (0.5)
  3. SEC (0.482)
  4. ACC (0.464)
  5. Big Ten (0.446)

That’s a pretty big shuffle, but a couple of Big 12 teams got promoted to 1’s this year, which likely explains it. At any rate, stay tuned for the actual ratings!

Bowl Games 2017: Epilogue

Since I’m about to do the previews soon, I should probably wrap up last season’s bowl coverage.

The page has been updated with the grim news: this was my poorest year, by far, since 2005, which was the last time I got less than 50% right. Fortunately, I’ve been doing this for so long (since 1999!) that it didn’t put much of a dent in my overall percentage, where I’ve gotten 54.5% correct over all those years.

We’ll crank up the 2018 out-of-conference previews soon!

World Cup 2018 Readable TV Schedule

Below is the full TV schedule for the 2018 World Cup. All times are Eastern Daylight Time (UTC-4). Will be updated as warranted. A superscript “a” indicates that a team has clinched advancement, but not in a particular place. A superscript “e” indicates that a team has been eliminated A superscript “t” indicates a result after extra time, with penalty shootout results following in parenthesis.

Match Group Date Time Team A vs. Team B Location Network
1 A 6-14-2018 11:00 AM Russia 5-0 Saudi Arabia Moscow-Luzniki FOX
2 A 6-15-2018 08:00 AM Egypt 0-1 Uruguay Yekaterinburg FS1
4 B 6-15-2018 11:00 AM Morocco 0-1 Iran St. Petersburg FOX
3 B 6-15-2018 02:00 PM Portugal 3-3 Spain Sochi FOX
5 C 6-16-2018 06:00 AM France 2-1 Australia Kazan FS1
7 D 6-16-2018 09:00 AM Argentina 1-1 Iceland Moscow-Otkritie FOX
6 C 6-16-2018 12:00 PM Peru 0-1 Denmark Saransk FS1
8 D 6-16-2018 02:00 PM Croatia 2-0 Nigeria Kaliningrad FS1
10 E 6-17-2018 08:00 AM Costa Rica 0-1 Serbia Samara FOX
11 F 6-17-2018 11:00 AM Germany 0-1 Mexico Moscow-Luzniki FS1
9 E 6-17-2018 02:00 PM Brazil 1-1 Switzerland Rostov-on-Don FS1
12 F 6-18-2018 08:00 AM Sweden 1-0 Korea Republic Nizhny Novgorod FS1
13 G 6-18-2018 11:00 AM Belgium 3-0 Panama Sochi FS1
14 G 6-18-2018 02:00 PM Tunisia 1-2 England Volgograd FS1
16 H 6-19-2018 08:00 AM Colombia 1-2 Japan Saransk FS1
15 H 6-19-2018 11:00 AM Poland 1-2 Senegal Moscow-Otkritie FOX
17 A 6-19-2018 02:00 PM Russia 3-1 Egypt St. Petersburg FOX
19 B 6-20-2018 08:00 AM Portugal 1-0 Morocco Moscow-Luzniki FS1
18 A 6-20-2018 11:00 AM Uruguay 1-0 Saudi Arabia Rostov-on-Don FOX
20 B 6-20-2018 02:00 PM Iran 0-1 Spain Kazan FOX
22 C 6-21-2018 08:00 AM Denmark 1-1 Australia Samara FS1
21 C 6-21-2018 11:00 AM France 1-0 Peru Yekaterinburg FOX
23 D 6-21-2018 02:00 PM Argentina 0-3 Croatia Nizhny Novgorod FOX
25 E 6-22-2018 08:00 AM Brazil 2-0 Costa Rica St. Petersburg FS1
24 D 6-22-2018 11:00 AM Nigeria 2-0 Iceland Volgograd FOX
26 E 6-22-2018 02:00 PM Serbia 1-2 Switzerland Kaliningrad FOX
29 G 6-23-2018 08:00 AM Belgium 5-2 Tunisia Moscow-Otkritie FOX
28 F 6-23-2018 11:00 AM Korea Republic 1-2 Mexico Rostov-on-Don FOX
27 F 6-23-2018 02:00 PM Germany 2-1 Sweden Sochi FOX
30 G 6-24-2018 08:00 AM England 6-1 Panama Nizhny Novgorod FS1
32 H 6-24-2018 11:00 AM Japan 2-2 Senegal Yekaterinburg FOX
31 H 6-24-2018 02:00 PM Poland 0-3 Colombia Kazan FOX
33 A 6-25-2018 10:00 AM Uruguaya 3-0 Russiaa Samara FOX
34 A 6-25-2018 10:00 AM Saudi Arabiae 2-1 Egypte Volgograd FS1
35 B 6-25-2018 02:00 PM Iran 1-1 Portugal Saransk FOX
36 B 6-25-2018 02:00 PM Spain 2-2 Moroccoe Kaliningrad FS1
37 C 6-26-2018 10:00 AM Denmark 0-0 Francea Moscow-Luzniki FOX
38 C 6-26-2018 10:00 AM Australia 0-2 Perue Sochi FS1
39 D 6-26-2018 02:00 PM Nigeria 1-2 Argentina St. Petersburg FOX
40 D 6-26-2018 02:00 PM Iceland 1-2 Croatiaa Rostov-on-Don FS1
43 F 6-27-2018 10:00 AM Korea Republic 2-0 Germany Kazan FS1
44 F 6-27-2018 10:00 AM Mexico 0-3 Sweden Yekaterinburg FOX
41 E 6-27-2018 02:00 PM Serbia 0-2 Brazil Moscow-Otkritie FOX
42 E 6-27-2018 02:00 PM Switzerland 2-2 Costa Ricae Nizhny Novgorod FS1
47 H 6-28-2018 10:00 AM Japan 0-1 Polande Volgograd FS1
48 H 6-28-2018 10:00 AM Senegal 0-1 Colombia Samara FOX
45 G 6-28-2018 02:00 PM Englanda 0-1 Belgiuma Kaliningrad FOX
46 G 6-28-2018 02:00 PM Panamae 1-2 Tunisiae Saransk FS1
50 R16 6-30-2018 10:00 AM France 4-3 Argentina Kazan FOX
49 R16 6-30-2018 02:00 PM Uruguay 2-1 Portugal Sochi FOX
51 R16 7-1-2018 10:00 AM Spain 1-1t
(3-4)
Russia Moscow-Luzniki FOX
52 R16 7-1-2018 02:00 PM Croatia 1-1t
(3-2)
Denmark Nizhny Novgorod FOX
53 R16 7-2-2018 10:00 AM Brazil 2-0 Mexico Samara FS1
54 R16 7-2-2018 02:00 PM Belgium 3-2 Japan Rostov-on-Don FOX
55 R16 7-3-2018 10:00 AM Sweden 1-0 Switzerland St. Petersburg FS1
56 R16 7-3-2018 02:00 PM Colombia 1-1t
(3-4)
England Moscow-Otkritie FOX
57 QF 7-6-2018 10:00 AM Uruguay 0-2 France Nizhny Novgorod FS1
58 QF 7-6-2018 02:00 PM Brazil 1-2 Belgium Kazan FS1
60 QF 7-7-2018 10:00 AM Sweden 0-2 England Samara FOX
59 QF 7-7-2018 02:00 PM Russia 2-2t
(3-4)
Croatia Sochi FOX
61 SF 7-10-2018 02:00 PM France 1-0 Belgium St. Petersburg FOX
62 SF 7-11-2018 02:00 PM Croatia 2-1t England Moscow-Luzniki FOX
63 3rd 7-14-2018 10:00 AM Belgium 2-0 England St. Petersburg FOX
64 Final 7-15-2018 11:00 AM France 4-2 Croatia Moscow-Luzniki FOX

Bowl Games 2017: Final

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

8:00: Alabama vs. Georgia (College Football Playoff National Championship Game @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): I hate this game. I will watch it, because I am a college football fan and it is the last game for seven months. It is also the most import game of the year, because a champion will be crowned. But regardless, I hate this game. Let me count the ways:
1) I grew up in Alabama, rooting for Auburn because my third grade teacher, on the last day of school before the Iron Bowl one year, was rooting for Auburn. That’s pretty much it. I don’t care for Auburn so much these days, but I cannot root for Alabama under any circumstance.
2) In 2003, I matriculated at Georgia Tech. Our biggest rival is Georgia. This rivalry is called “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” for a reason. Enough said.
3) It’s not like Alabama needs more titles, they already claim somewhere between a dozen and like 500 (I always forget).
4) Oh, yeah, and Auburn’s second biggest rival? Georgia.
5) Did you watch that Sugar Bowl, where Alabama basically took a freshman quarterback and sucked all the life out the Clemson offense? That 24-6 score is ridiculous. Bama could have won the game by not even fielding an offense, because their defense scored more points than Clemson did. And indeed, the Clemson defense had a pretty good game, but it didn’t matter because their offense was dead on arrival.
6) Okay, yes, the Rose Bowl was exciting even if the result went the wrong way. (If only Oklahoma fielded an even average defense…) But the fact of the matter is that Fromm hasn’t seen anything like this Alabama defense, which used the bowl break to get healthy. Now they’re back.
7) Of course, it could be argued the Bama defense hasn’t seen an offense like this all year, but if there’s any kind of offense an Alabama defense can stop it’s a run-first offense like Georgia’s.
8) Georgia’s defense is pretty good. Yes, they just gave up 531 yards of offense, but no one is going to confuse Jalen Hurts for Baker Mayfield.
9) Add it all up, and it looks for all the world like a tight, low-scoring game where the team that makes the least mistakes will win. And given that, you have to figure it’s going to be Alabama. I hate whoever is going to win either way, but given everything I think this game favors the Tide.
S&P+ line: Alabama by 2.3
Watchability tier: [redacted]
Previous meetings: Interestingly, despite having been in the same conference since 1921 (when both joined the original Southern Conference; both also left for the new SEC in 1933), they’ve only played 67 times. Generally speaking, schools used to have considerable leeway over even conference scheduling (famously, until recently Georgia Tech had only played the two Mississippi* schools five times combined despite having been in the SEC together for decades), but even still 67 times in nearly a century is not a lot. They did play every year from 1944 through 1965, but since then they’ve only met 16 times. I can explain the gap after 1992, since that’s when the SEC began divisional play and placed the two in opposite divisions, but between 1965 and 1992 I don’t really know why they didn’t play more often,  even given scheduling considerations in the then 10-team league. At any rate, Alabama won the last regular season meeting in 2015, 38-10. The series began in 1895 with a 30-6 Georgia win, and Alabama is sitting on a three game winning streak. Alabama also has a 38-25-4 all-time series lead.
*: Somewhat hilariously, this will change in the near future, but despite the above Alabama has played Georgia more times than Ole Miss. (And also founding SEC members Kentucky and Florida.)
Last bowl game: See the previous post.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit