Author Archives: ASimPerson

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Maryland (ABC): We largely determined that last week was trash. But what I failed to take into account was that, well, this week would probably be worse. That’s okay, though; we’ll get through this together. Also, I’ll take the Buckeyes here.
  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (FOX): Here are the teams that I figure are good this year: Alabama, Clemson, and… after that I’ll take Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, and UCF. Then it starts to get dicey. As has been pointed out elsewhere, there are an unusually few number of 2-loss teams for this late in the season (hence my own angst about the New Year’s Six make-up for those bowl games). At any rate, the Cornhuskers are on something of a late season roll. Even though they’re not going bowling at 3-7, those three wins have come in their last four games, and that one loss was a narrow 5 point loss to Ohio State. I guess what I’m trying to say is that at this point I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Sparty, but I don’t really expect them to.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Meanwhile, I can’t recommend Arkansas at all.
  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (FS1): It’s a down year for TCU, which means Baylor, I guess?
  • South Florida @ Temple (ESPNEWS): USF has lost three straight, and… let’s just go ahead and make it four.
  • Middle Tennessee @ Kentucky (SECA): Hard to see MTSU scoring, well, at all really.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Last week’s loss to Michigan was definite an improvement in adjectives for Rutgers. Instead of words like “vaporized” or “obliterated” being thrown around, they were instead just plain ol’ blown out. I expect more of the same here.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (BTN): Well, Northwestern already has the Big Ten West sown up, so this game is pretty much just for pride and another NU victory, I guess.
  • Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest (ACC/RSN): Pitt.

12:20: North Carolina State @ Louisville (Raycom): NC State.

1:30: Utah @ Colorado (Pac12): The Pac-12 is attempting to nurse this into a rivalry, but we’ll see if it actually happens. These schools do have a touch of pre-Pac-12 history, but not much. I’ll go ahead and take Utah here.

2:30: Syracuse vs. Notre Dame (@New York, NY; NBC): Most people are not Notre Dame fans and will be inclined to root against them away. And if you are not so inclined, you may well be once you see their uniforms on Saturday. Unfortunately for all of us who are not Notre Dame fans, they will probably still win.

3:30:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Mike Gundy, two things. For starters, Millennials are so last generation. Today’s college students aren’t Millennials. Two, we’ll see how’s a bunch of snowflakes after you get blown out by West Virginia.
  • Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Well, the primary reason for this game is usually to see the two teams wearing color uniforms and in even years the perfect turf and scenery of the Rose Bowl. But the fires in California will affect this game and The Big Game. Not having the pristine pictures we’re used to is perhaps the most trivial effect of the fires but also potentially a potent reminder of the tragedy. The Red Cross and other California-specific aid organizations will prefer you donate cash instead of items, since exactly what the survivors will need is not a constant and coordinating physical goods just adds to the logistical nightmare.
    To get back to football for a second, USC is scuffling, suffice it to say. And dang, I’ve just about got Clay Helton’s name memorized. That said, still hard to see this UCLA team beating them.
  • Missouri @ Tennessee (CBS): This is sure is a game CBS picked for their game of the week. Mizzou.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Neither of these teams is good at this point, but VPI’s defense is just a disaster.
  • Boston College @ Florida State (ESPN2): BC should get their “dude!” mojo back against FSU.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas State (ESPNU): I perhaps wrote K-State off too early last week against KU, but I still can’t see them beating Texas Tech.
  • Illinois @ Iowa (BTN): The Big Ten really needs a traveling trophy for all the schools whose names start with ‘I’. Just sayin’. Anyway, also just sayin’ Iowa’s got this.
  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue hasn’t exactly followed up on the promise from the Ohio State game, and of course everyone is connecting their head coach to the now vacant Louisville job. Wisconsin is having a bit of a down year themselves but I still see them desperately wanting the service.
  • Tulsa @ Navy (CBSS): Navy’s just bad this year, taking Tulsa.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Southern Mississippi (Stadium): USM.
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): I didn’t really see it coming. That is, Tech being 6-4. UVA is better than anyone expected, and I definitely feel pretty good about having win number six. The defense still is vulnerable to passing plays. It feels like when get someone to third and long opposing offensive coordinators are thinking “got ’em right where we want ’em, boys!” Otherwise, I don’t have a lot to say about this one.

4:00:

  • Indiana @ Michigan (FS1): Indiana, as it turns out, is very much having an Indiana kind of season. Basically, I’m not giving them much of a chance against the Wolverines.
  • Air Force @ Wyoming (ESPNEWS): This game sure seemed a lot more interesting back in August. Going with Wyoming.
  • Massachusetts @ Georgia (SEC): UGA.

4:30: Oregon State @ Washington (Pac12): It’s been a disappointing year for the Pac-12, but not so much so that UDub will blow this heading into the Apple Cup.

7:00:

  • Duke @ Clemson (ESPN): Duke is good, but it won’t matter against Clemson.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Texas A&M (ESPN2): GO BLAZERS!
  • Connecticut @ East Carolina (CBSS): I have no idea, and no inclination to even figure out which of these teams is less worse. Let’s go with UConn then.

7:30:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma (FOX): I know why this game is on big FOX, but I that doesn’t mean I have to accept it. OU rolls.
  • Rice @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.
  • Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Here’s some bottom barrel SEC action that may be more compelling than anything else on at this time other than UAB-TAMU. Yeah. Vandy?
  • Texas-El Paso @ Western Kentucky (beIN): WKU.

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Central Florida (ABC): This is definitely one of the better games of the day, and Orlando is definitely deserving of Gameday this week. That said, does Cincy have much of a chance? Sure, they’re definitely improved this year and they’re not bad or anything. UCF also isn’t nearly as invincible as they were last year. That said, though, it’s hard to see a “path to victory” (election jokes!) for Cincy.
  • Iowa State @ Texas (LHN): I listed this because, despite the fact that you, the reader, do not get the Longhorn Network it’s one of the better games of the day. And boy how the Big 12 really needs Texas to win this one. Just sayin’.

10:15: New Mexico State @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): BYU?

10:30:

  • Arizona @ Washington State (ESPN): Anything can happen in the Pac-12 these days, but I will be sticking with Wazzu until further notice.
  • San Diego State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Here’s another actually pretty good game! Sure, it could well be a defensive slog, but that shouldn’t deter you from watching. Both of these teams are actually reasonably good. I’ll take Fresno here, though.
  • Arizona State @ Oregon (Pac12): And here’s another game you’ll want to watch on a network you probably don’t get. Oregon has been a pleasant surprise this year, even if they’ve struggled at times, but ASU and HERM feel almost out-of-nowhere. Ducks at home, sure, but I’ll be watching this one.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 3

They’re real and they’re spectacular.

Anyway, we are currently at 65 teams, so we’re probably going to get the number of bowl eligible teams we need. Huzzah! I should probably start going into more detail in addition to just posting the link, so let’s do this newspaper columnist style:

  • If Oklahoma winds up beating West Virginia twice, I think that will be enough to get them into the playoff over Michigan. If I had to guess, the committee will be looking for reasons to include a Michigan team that lost to Notre Dame rather than exclude them, unless, somewhat ironically, Notre Dame ceases to be undefeated.
  • That said, putting four SEC teams into the playoff-controlled bowls really stresses the system. I ran out of teams even before getting out the SEC Tier 2 bowl quagmire, so guessing which teams will get at-large to those bowls is a lot of work.
  • That said, I am here for a West Virginia-LSU Sugar Bowl when and if that actually happens.
  • I’m pretty excited Georgia Tech was able to get bowl eligible, but I’m less sure about where we’ll actually go. It looks pretty likely only Clemson will get into the CFP-bowls (NC State had a great shot until they lost to Wake Forest last weekend) from the ACC, so that probably means Tech will miss out, but it’s currently hard to say. In the next couple of weeks bowl rumors should start to float around, and I’ll have a better idea.
  • I feel a bit bad that the two best teams from the Mountain West this year, Utah State and Fresno State, will probably play each other on December 1st and then have a bowl game two weeks later.
  • That said, I am also here for HERM versus Utah State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
  • I like to think that teams with winning records will get picked before 6-6 teams, so I wound up putting Miami in the Quick Lane Bowl. It’s a shame that the Miami in Ohio isn’t going to a bowl this year, because otherwise we’d have a decent shot at a Miami-Miami game for only the fourth time ever.
  • Another thing I feel a bit bad about: “Congratulations on your under-the-radar great season, Cincy! Now watch as everyone just talks about Lane Kiffin the whole time because you’ll get to play them in the Gasparilla Bowl.”

And there we are for now. I’m traveling next Sunday into Monday, so I have no idea when next week’s predictions will be posted.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Mississippi @ Texas A&M (CBS): The popular consensus is that Week 11 is “trash”. I say, let’s see for ourselves. We start with a bad Ole Miss team against a reeling Texas A&M… yeah, TAMU should still win.
  • Ohio State @ Michigan State (FOX): Speaking of trash, just ugh. I keep thinking Ohio State has like three losses at this point, but no, it just feels that way. I guess they’ll win though?
  • Wisconsin @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): Also trash: the Big Ten West, where the winner will probably have four losses on the year by the time all is said and done. I’m taking Penn State here.
  • South Carolina @ Florida (ESPN): The Gators just got beat pretty soundly by Mizzou at home and somehow they’re still sixteenth in the country. What? It’s cool, though, they’re still less trash than South Carolina, probably.
  • Navy @ Central Florida (ESPN2): Navy is garbage this year, UCF cruises.
  • Texas Christian @ West Virginia (FS1): Any season where you lose to Kansas is rubbish, so I’m going with West Virginia here.
  • Tulsa @ Memphis (ESPNU): Tulsa is 2-7, which is a pretty refuse-worthy record.
  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC): Mizzou finally gets that elusive second SEC win.
  • Kansas @ Kansas State (FSN): The Sunflower Showdown is so garbage this year that it’s pretty likely the Jayhawks win, as the Bill Synder era at K-State continues to end in the most awkward way possible.
  • Illinois @ Nebraska (BTN): Illinois at least has the distinction of the perennially awful Big Ten team that at least has nothing otherwise awkward going on around it this year, though they’ll probably lose to Nebraska and further dash the Big Ten’s chances of filling all of its bowl slots.
  • Maryland @ Indiana (BTN): Speaking of teams the Big Ten wishes it could throw away… Indiana all the way.

12:20: North Carolina @ Duke (Raycom): Okay, so the morning slot is… mostly garbage. So let’s get past that block and go straight to… a probable rout of UNC by Duke. Great.

2:00: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (Pac12): Well, I would’ve guessed that one of the head coaches in this game would probably be the Pac-12 Coach of the Year (if that’s a thing, I’m assuming it’s a thing). The thing is, well, I wouldn’t have put my money on HERM, that’s for sure.

3:00: Liberty @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): I included this because Liberty is technically FBS, though they’ll probably be independent forever because they’re so radioactive that no conference wants them. And if a conference does pick them up, it would just stink of desperation.

3:30:

  • Northwestern @ Iowa (FOX): Well, this game is important in the sense that it’ll probably determine the Big Ten West champion (maybe?), so enjoy watching a game Iowa will win like 11-5 or some crap.
  • Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (ABC): BEDLAM SAVE US DEAR GOD oh wait Oklahoma State is kinda bad this year. Sigh.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (CBS): Last week, I railed against the line in the Alabama-LSU game because, surely, LSU could at least, like, score once, right? Nah. Sure, LSU played some defense, but this Alabama team plays defense 95% as well as the previous editions and basically plays the kind of offense that Nick Saban said a few years ago would “ruin football” or some such. Yeah, this Bama team is just incinerating people right now.
  • Washington State @ Colorado (ESPN): Remember when the Buffs were undefeated? No? Yeah, I don’t really blame you, that was like a month ago. Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight, including to an absolute trash fire of an Oregon State team. Yeesh. Wazzu will probably blow one at some point, but predicting when is folly.
  • Purdue @ Minnesota (ESPN2): That Minnesota win over Fresno State continues to get weirder and weirder. Meanwhile, Purdue got their mojo back with a win over Iowa, further ensuring their position somewhere near the top of the Big Ten West garbage heap. I’ll take the Boilermakers, which, with the way this schedule is shaping up, could well be a double entrendre before this day is out.
  • Baylor @ Iowa State (FS1): I am so tired, y’all. The way this is going, I may as well reel in some sleep debt and just sleep until the Tech game starts at 4:00 my time. Uh, Cyclones?
  • Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): Ugh, Kentucky is still ranked 12 and they’re kind of terrible? Anyway, Tennessee is worse, so…
  • Michigan @ Rutgers (BTN): Do you know what the line is on this game? No, higher. No, just a bit more. Close… okay yeah it’s Michigan by 38. I’ll take the Wolverines to cover. New Jersey remains our trashiest state. Since no one is reading this anyway, allow me to regale you with one of my favorite bits from Futurama (warning: may be paraphrased a bit):

    [Montage of Fry looking for apartments]
    Fry: This place is great! What’s the catch?
    Agent: Well… we’re technically in New Jersey.
    [Cut back to Planet Express]
    Fry: Not a single livable place!

  • New Mexico @ Air Force (CBSS): These teams are both trash this year, but Air Force is slightly less so.

4:00: East Carolina @ Tulane (ESPNEWS): ECU figures to be 0-6 in the AAC after this one.

5:30: Oregon @ Utah (Pac12): Hey, an interesting game, except unless you’re on the West Coast like me you probably can’t see it. Alas and alack. I’ll take the Utes.

7:00:

  • Auburn @ Georgia (ESPN): It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry (I missed the South’s Oldest Rivalry a couple weeks ago, sorry Carolina-Virginia fans) once again, and UGA is unfortunately a prohibitive favorite. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but as usual I’m hoping for something weird to happen. Anyway, I probably won’t see any of this because…
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): HEY WE GOT A HOME NIGHT GAME, WOOOO. So we’ve done what we needed to the past couple weeks to try to salvage this season, but nonetheless two things remain to be seen. The first is, how much longer can the offense continue to essentially pound Tobias Oliver into defenses over and over again? TaQuon Marshall did start against UNC last week, but he still looked hurt and Oliver played most of the game. But there’s no doubt that Oliver does not have the same freedom to operate that Marshall does, and I can’t help but think at some point defenses will gear up to stop him. Also, Miami posses the most capable defense we’ve played since Clemson. (Yes, VPI has Bud Foster, but they’re so thin this year that not even Bud can save them.) Not only are they likely to be more schematically sound than Louisville or UNC, but they also have the second best athletes on our schedule. While I don’t think Miami has the same caliber of player Clemson does, they’re close than anyone else and that’s how they’ve beat us eight of the last nine times. I also suspect that Mark Richt will not gift us any touchdowns via failed onside kicks this year. The second thing is, between injury and inconsistency Richt is having a devil of a time finding a quarterback. Can the Georgia Tech defense finally get stops that aren’t fueled by turnovers? Passing defense, especially on third downs, has been atrocious. One more thing: it’s going to be cold in Atlanta Saturday night, with a game time forecast calling for 40 degrees and dropping.
  • South Florida @ Cincinnati (ESPNU): USF decided to show they were garbage after appearing not garbage for a large chunk of the season, but after two consecutive blowouts by Houston (understandable) and Tulane (less so), I have to go with Cincy here.

7:30:

  • Florida State @ Notre Dame (NBC): FSU is garbage this year, and Notre Dame should be able to beat them at home with their backup quarterback.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (FOX): Yeah, looking back Texas Tech’s best win might well be beating Houston at home back in September. But they do have the advantage of it being night in Lubbock with a demoralized set of Longhorns… yeah, I’m still picking Texas.
  • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (SEC): Arkansas’s defense is a tire fire, to the extent that LSU might even be able to score on them.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Alabama-Birmingham (beIN): Go Blazers!

8:00: Clemson @ Boston College (ABC): Yes, Boston College is, uh, good, but evidence that they can beat Clemson is… scarce. But here we are with Gameday in Chestnut Hill because Week 11 is, say with with me now, trash.

9:00: Oregon State @ Stanford (Pac12): I suppose every conference has to have one team you look forward to playing, and in the case of the Pac-12, that team is Oregon State.

10:30:

  • California @ Southern California (ESPN): Anyone still reading this? Sorry I’ve been so sarcastic this week, I don’t know what it is, really. I tell y’all what, I’ll predict an upset for once: the Bears are totally going to win this game. I mean, I know I’m not entirely going out on a limb here, since I half expected to look up the line and be genuinely surprised that Cal is actually favored or something. (As is, it’s USC by 5.)
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ San Diego State (ESPN2): UNLV is bad. SDSU isn’t.
  • Colorado State @ Nevada (ESPNU): Nevada.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Week 2

Get ’em while they’re hot.

So this week I switched back to using S&P+ to predict the rest of the season. Suffice it to say, I would up with three too many teams this time, which is generally more plausible for how things should shake out. That said, I definitely felt like there were some situations where S&P+ was just too stuck on a team, but that’s something that should correct itself in the coming weeks. Overall, these are probably reasonably coherent projections, but we’ll see how things shake out.