Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Games 2021: Opening Slate

Oh hey, we’re back on this this thing. I have to admit it snuck up on a me a bit this year, but not only are we here early, we’ve also got eight games to cover! We really need to get crackin’!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, December 17

12:00: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee State (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): Toledo happened run into NIU’s luck-driven bandsaw in the MAC Championship game, but fortunately for them here MTSU is both kind of bad and not terribly lucky.
SP+ line: Toledo by 13.2
Vegas line: Toledo by 9.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Toledo’s last bowl game was this game in 2018, where they lost 35-32 to FIU. MTSU also hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2018, where they lost 45-13 to App State in the New Orleans Bowl.
Announcers: Matt Barrie and Booger McFarland

6:00: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN2):

Yes I know who you remind me of
A girl I think I used to know
Yes I’d see her when the day got colder
On those days when it felt like snow

You know I even think that she stared like you
She used to just stand there and stare
And roll her eyes right up to heaven
And make like I just wasn’t there

And she used to fall down a lot
That girl was always falling
Again and again
And I used to sometimes try to catch her
But I never even caught her name

And sometimes we would spend the night
Just rolling about on a floor
And I remember
Even though it felt soft at the time
I always used to wake up sore

You know I even think that she smiled like you
She used to just stand there and smile
And her eyes would go all sort of far away
And stay like that for quite a while

And I remember she used to fall down a lot
That girl was always falling
Again and again
And I used to sometimes try to catch her
But I never even caught her name

Yes I sometimes even tried to catch her
But I never even caught her name

Ahem. Speaking of the Huskies, here they are! Basically every statistical framework is agreement that they are, indeed, very lucky, but the simplest one is that they won nine games have a negative scoring margin on the season. They are, indeed, the Anti-Nebraska. You will also note that the Chanticleers, despite not being terribly great this year themselves, are 20 point favorites in this game. I’m inclined to agree.
SP+ line: Coastal Carolina by 20.2
Vegas line: Cosatal Carolina by 9.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Coastal’s second ever bowl game. The first was a 37-34 last season in the Cure Bowl. NIU was last seen in a bowl game in 2018’s Boca Raton Bowl, where they got beat 37-13 by UAB.
Announcers: Mike Morgan and Kirk Morrison

Saturday, December 18

11:00: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ESPN): Well, the “transplanted offense” thing didn’t help WKU win Conference USA, but by all indications this should be a close one in Boca. I still kinda like App though.
SP+ line: WKU by 1
Vegas line: Appalachian State by 2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This will be seven in a row for App State, as one of the group of teams that actually played a bowl game last season. The stream started with a 31-29 win over Ohio in the Camellia Bowl. Last season they beat North Texas 56-28 in the Myrle Beach Bowl. For the Hilltoppers, this makes three in a row. In 2019 they beat Western Michigan 23-20 in the First Responder Bowl, and then lost 39-21 to Georgia State in last season’s Lendingtree Bowl.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Rocky Boiman

2:15: Texas-El Paso vs. Fresno State (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): UTEP is a fun, feel-good story this year, and they’re gonna get pasted by Fresno.
SP+ line: Fresno by 15.3
Vegas line: Fresno State by 11.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: These teams have met 9 times, with Fresno owning a 6-2-1 series lead. Their first meeting was in 1992, a 43-18 Fresno win, and the most recent was a 24-21 UTEP win in 2004.
Last bowl game: This will be UTEP’s first bowl game since a 21-6 loss to Utah State in the 2014 New Mexico Bowl. Even beyond their limited bowl game appearances, they also have lost 5 bowl games in a row. Their last win was a 14-7 win over Ole Miss in the Sun Bowl. Given their general competence, I find it somewhat surprising that this will be Fresno’s first bowl game since a 31-20 win over Arizona State in the 2018 Las Vegas Bowl.
Announcers: John Schriffen and Rene Ingoglia

3:30: Alabama-Birmingham vs. Brigham Young (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ABC): Provided they’re motivated, de facto Pac-12 South champs BYU should be able to roll the Blazers.
SP+ line: BYU by 0.2
Vegas line: BYU by 6.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: UAB was last seen in the postseason losing 31-17 to App State in the New Orleans Bowl. BYU has now made is four straight bowl appearances. The streak started with a 39-18 win over Western Michigan in the 2018 Potato Bowl, and they also beat UCF 49-23 in last season’s Boca Raton Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott, Cole Cubelic, and Paul Carcaterra

5:45: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty (Lendingtree Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): I want Liberty to lose, but they probably won’t.
SP+ line: Liberty by 13.4
Vegas line: Liberty by 9.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: EMU’s last bowl game appearance was the 2019 Quick Lane Bowl, a 34-30 loss to Pitt. Libery, meanwhile, gets a chance to play in a game that isn’t the Cure Bowl. In 2019 they beat Georgia Southern 23-16 and last season they beat Coastal Carolina 37-34.
Announcers: Chris Cotter and Mark Herzlich

7:30: Oregon State vs. Utah State (LA Bowl @ Los Angeles, CA; ABC): The new and (vastly) improved Aggies should pose a big challenge, and I actually feel somewhat weary about picking the Beavers here, but I’m going to go ahead and do so.
SP+ line: Oregon State by 9.7
Vegas line: Beavers by 6.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just twice, and they were both narrow Beaver victories. The first was 24-16 in 1997 and 20-16 in 1998.
Last bowl game: This will be the first bowl game for the Beavers since beating Boise State 38-23 in the 2013 Hawaii Bowl. Utah State’s last bowl apperance was the 2019 Frisco Bowl, where they lost 51-41.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Jesse Palmer

9:15: Marshall vs. Louisiana (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): This game looks like it should be pretty close, but considering the location, I’ll give a pretty solid edge to the Cajuns.
SP+ line: Marshall by 1.2
Vegas line: Cajuns by 4.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: The Herd has has now made 5 bowl games in a row. The streak started with a 31-28 win over Colorado State in the 2017 New Mexico Bowl. Last season they lost 17-10 to Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl. The Cajuns have now also raged into four straight bowls, starting with the 2018 Cure Bowl, a 41-24 loss to Tulane. Last season they beat UTSA in 31-24 in the First Responder Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Mike Golic Jr

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • East Tennessee State @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Quarterfinals; ESPN)
  • Colorado School of Mines @ Valdosta State (NCAA Division II Playoffs Semifinals; ESPN+)
  • North Central @ Mount Union (NCAA Division III Playoffs Semifinals; ESPN+)

2:00: South Dakota State @ Villanova (NCAA Division I Playoffs Quarterfinals; ESPN+)

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@East Rutherford, NJ; CBS): Unfortunately, while the pageantry, pomp, and circumstance all figure to still be present for this game, it’s been a pretty rough go this seasons for the Midshipmen and Army figures to roll.

3:30:

  • Mary Hardin-Baylor @ Wisconsin-Whitewater (NCAA Division III Playoffs Semifinals; ESPN+)
  • Shepherd @ Ferris State (NCAA Division II Playoffs Semifinals; ESPN+)

8:30: Montana State @ Sam Houston State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Quarterfinals; ESPN+)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): Well, I definitely completely struck out on the Utah-Oregon rematch. Honestly, though, I think the main thing for this game is whether or not Oklahoma State will be able to mentally reset after finally winning Bedlam. I think they can and they should be able to see out the Bears.
  • Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (Mid-American Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): Northern Illinois just has to be the luckiest team of this college football season. The anti-Nebraska, if you will. I think Kent State will upend them here, but with my luck it’ll probably be Huskies by 2 or something.

2:00:

  • Southeastern Louisiana @ James Madison (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)
  • Kennesaw State @ East Tennessee State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Utah State @ San Diego State (Mountain West Championship; FOX): I think the Aztecs still have some severe questions to answer against this resurgent Aggies squad. Their defense and field position game should be strong enough to win at home, but either way the main entertainment here is watching The Punt God boom ’em.
  • Incarnate Word @ Sam Houston State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Appalachian State @ Louisiana (Sun Belt Championship; ESPN): These two teams have quietly put together really strong seasons and this could well be one of the best games of the day. However, with the game in Lafayette, the Cajuns have to be the favorites to rage at home.
  • Southern Illinois @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Houston @ Cincinnati (American Athletic Championship; ABC): The Bearcats dodged a bullet by Notre Dame quickly replacing Brian Kelly with defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, as their own coach, Luke Fickell, was almost certainly the top external candidate. While Fickell is probably still on the boards at some other jobs—after Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly got new jobs I’m not sure I can be surprised by anything anymore—it’s unlikely that he’s going anywhere. I can imagine there will be many eyes here, even though this is the “lesser” game compared to the one below. Houston will be the second strongest challenge the Bearcats have had all year. The Cougars are 11-1 and have the talent to challenge Cincy. However, as I mentioned before the SMU game I feel like this is a team that really plays up and down to their opponents, and we saw what they did to the Ponies. I like Cincy here.
  • Georgia vs. Alabama (Southeastern Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Much was made last weekend that after the overtime thriller in Auburn, Nick Saban actually smiled after a win, which was taken to mean that it’s a bit more of a struggle for this team. Well, against Georgia, the struggle will be real. This Alabama offense isn’t as good as it’s been the past few years, but they will be, across the board, the most talented offense this Georgia defense will face. (Conversely, this will be best defense Georgia has faced since Clemson in Week 1.) Yes, UGA is the favorite, and I have them as a favorite as well, but this is realistically the first time all season that Georgia is in any danger of losing. As a Georgia Tech alum and fan, I of course generally want Georgia to lose all of their games. Unfortunately, that presents two major quandaries for me:
    1. My most hated team growing up was Alabama, and they’re still my second least favorite.
    2. A Georgia loss here likely doesn’t knock them out the playoff (it would have to be the sort of thing where Bama just somehow completely exposes them as massive frauds), and most disconcertingly, an UGA loss could knock Cincy out if they finish undefeated but not by an impressive margin over Houston.
    This is the true doomsday scenario. At least when these two played for a national title I could at least go with “well, if UGA loses then we’ve still won a national championship more recently than them” but that doesn’t really work here. Again, I think they’ll probably win. I would also like to see Cincinnati make the playoff. That’s how I’m going to have to frame it.
  • Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State (Southwestern Championship; ESPN2)
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Montana State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Michigan vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): What Michigan did to Ohio State, well, we knew it could be done. Oregon laid the groundwork in Columbus. But Michigan amped up the aggressiveness and toughness to 11. If not for some pure talent plays by Ohio State’s elite wide receivers, the margin in the The Game would’ve been a blowout. The problem for Michigan is that they now have to play Iowa, a team that has no pretentions about ever beating elite teams on talent. They will try to be more physical and tough than the Wolverines and force them into uncomfortable situations. Like I said about Oklahoma State above, part of this too for the Wolverines will be ensuring they aren’t too high after finally beating their rival. I think that this team can do it, and I have them as favorites,
  • Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest (Atlantic Coast Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): While the game in Indianapolis will probably be tough and gritty, down in Charlotte there’s going to be some points y’all. Kenny Pickett is still one of the best quarterbacks in the country, but Wake can get the score up there as well. I think this game will easily break 100. I have Pitt, but it could well come down to whoever has the ball last.

9:00: South Dakota State @ Sacramento State (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

11:00: Southern California @ California (FS1): And finally we have the season’s only COVID-makeup game. Originally, it was thought that this would be played so that one or both of these teams could get bowl eligible, but they both lost last weekend, so at 4-7 that’s not going to happen. It turns out that Cal just plain needs the money from the gate receipts and concessions and stuff, but I gotta ask, who is going to go? At least USC has reasons to be excited with Lincoln Riley coming to town, and I imagine he’ll be on the scene in Berkeley tomorrow night. I’ll take the Trojans here.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00:

  • Western Kentucky @ Texas-San Antonio (Conference USA Championship; CBSS): As previously mentioned, the Hilltoppers essentially took 4 players and a coordinator from a successful FCS offense and imported it. Now, they’re getting a chance to challenge a UTSA team that lost their first game to North Texas last weekend. I like their chances.
  • Holy Cross @ Villanova (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

8:00: Oregon vs. Utah (Pac-12 Championship @ Paradise, NV; ABC): So the main the mystery in this game is whether history will repeat itself. A few weeks ago in Salt Lake City, the Utes absolutely obliterated the Ducks.  I mean, they definitely did things that would require many synonyms for “obliterated” to really fully give you the scope of the slobberknocking they got. At any rate, can the Utes do it again? I’m not sure there’s a whole bunch of precedent for this, but this is on a neutral field, which I think is going to favor the Ducks. And if I’m wrong, well, my response is already at the top of this post.

9:00: Eastern Washington @ Montana (NCAA Division I Playoffs Second Round; ESPN+)

 

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 4

First off, the latest predictions are here. I would consider this week a bit of a “living document”, as if I can scrape together any news before this weekend abut anyone going anywhere I will try to include. This is significantly harder than it used to be, though, as I discuss below.

It turns out a bunch of stuff happened this weekend, and one of those things, to my surprise, was that we got over the 82-team bar that we needed to have enough bowl eligible teams. In fact, there’s 83!

So with that settled, there are also three teams that have accepted invites. My process this year, as detailed previously, is different in the past. One of things I have tried to do ensure that I have captured the agreements the conferences have with bowls as closely as possible. A typical agreement these days, especially for Group of Five conferences, is that they will have 2-4 “permanent” bowl affiliations and some number of teams they’ll provide to ESPN Events (which, again, owns about half of the bowl games). This number is anywhere from 1 to 5.

After I allocated those slots, I was left with 6 teams that did not have a bowl game, with 5 slots to fill. In the real bowl games, there can be some shuffling within the ESPN Events group of bowls and this is nearly impossible to predict. For instance, currently BYU is slotted to the Independence Bowl. However, it’s entirely possible that to create a more attractive matchup, they could be moved to some other ESPN Events bowl. While UTSA isn’t exactly chopped liver, it’s likely that BYU and ESPN would want a matchup more appropriate for a team that has gone 5-0 against the Pac-12 this year. (In some ways, where they really should be is in Vegas this weekend to play, say, Oregon for the Pac-12 title, but still.)