Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 1

I wanted to these with the release of the College Football Playoff rankings this year, so some changes I’d planned to make I had to scrap at the last minute. So, yeah, the matchups aren’t there yet, but they’ll be fixed by next week’s edition. For now, take a look at this.

I’m getting a little better at parsing my way though ESPN Events bowl games, but nonetheless this is way more of a crapshoot than it was before most of the current agreements took effect in 2020.

Just like last year, I am using SP+ to predict every team’s path to bowl eligibility (or not). This has left me short six teams, but I’m pretty sure we’ll get some upsets that will allow this number to shrink over the coming weeks. I’ll have more notes in future weeks, but for now, enjoy!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): I mentioned previously, I’m pretty sure, that Penn State seems to have found this niche just below Michigan and Ohio State but above everyone else in the Big Ten. Well, guess what, the other part of that niche is back, and they look like an unstoppable offensive juggernaut. Good luck with that.
  • Notre Dame @ Syracuse (ABC): Undefeated Syracuse was fun, but they wound up just not being able to move the ball on Clemson in the second half, among other issues. But stopping people hasn’t really been Notre Dame’s forte this season (well, has anything?) so I like the Orange here.
  • Texas Christian @ West Virginia (ESPN): The Big 12 is fun this year due most of the teams being kind of even. WVU seems to be the outlier. I like TCU here.
  • South Florida @ Houston (ESPN2): Houston is a mess, and while USF looks like slightly less of a mess than usual, it doesn’t mean they can beat the Cougs. Probably.
  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (FS1): The Sooners have issues, but I think that the fun, good era of Iowa State is kind of over.
  • Arkansas @ Auburn (SEC): Wompin’ figures to get back on schedule against Auburn.
  • Georgia Tech @ Florida State (ACCN): So the thing about having hope again is that when you set expectation you then wind up having to face the consequences of not meeting them. I actually wasn’t really able to watch much of the game last week against UVA, but I could see the aftermath of an offense that is still spectacularly bad. Perhaps the most damming for the current interim head coach is that the offensive line is still awful, seeing as how he was previously the offensive line coach. Either way, it’s time to venture down to Tallahassee and see if we can give ’em a game.
  • Boston College @ Connecticut (CBSS): UConn isn’t awful this year, but I still doubt they can notch a P5 victory against even a woeful BC.
  • Miami @ Akron (ESPN+)

12:30: Miami @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): I don’t really want to contemplate this game. Both of these teams are bad. Neither will deserve to win. I’ll take the Canes because nothing makes sense.

2:00: Charlotte @ Rice (espn3.com)

2:30: Rutgers @ Minnesota (BTN): Rutgers is competent now and Minnesota isn’t as good as we thought, but I’m still leaning Gophers here.

3:00: Old Dominion @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” @ Jacksonville, FL; CBS): The WLOCP is one of the few headliners this weekend, but it doesn’t figure to be much of a headliner afterward. Florida is… well, they’re rebuilding, sort of as their new head guy Napier promised. Georgia still looks like a not super well-tested Death Star, and I doubt the Gators are going to do much to put a dent in that.
  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (FOX): K-State beat Oklahoma earlier this season, but the Pokes seem to be just better.
  • Illinois @ Nebraska (ABC): Competent Illinois still seems to be a thing, so sure.
  • Cincinnati @ Central Florida (ESPN): Cincy’s defense still seems to be legit, which is good because the offense is definitely down compared to last year’s. They’ve had some close calls this year, but until they actually lose I have to continue to go with them.
  • Northwestern @ Iowa (ESPN2): As I write this on Friday afternoon, the over/under on this game is 37.5 points. For those unfamiliar, what this means is that in locations where it’s legal you can go to a sportsbook and bet money on whether or not the combined total of the two teams in this game will be less or greater than 37.5 points. Think about that for a second. That means a, say, 21-18 score would result in the over bets winning. This is astounding. The average line is in the 50’s. I do see some other lines in the 40’s this week, but they mostly involve woeful G5 teams. We’re talking about a Big Ten conference game here! The offenses in question, of course, are awful. In Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, this is a matchup of the 100th ranked versus 101st ranked offenses in the country (Northwestern and Iowa, respectively). The reasons? Well, Northwestern is in the middle of trying to pivot to a fast-paced offense, and indeed, they run more plays per game than almost anyone else in the country. Unfortunately for them, most of those plays are futile. In this game, they’ll be doing some very rapid three-and-outs to the equally incompetent Iowa offense. The Hawkeyes have no discernible offensive gameplan other than warning of the dangers of nepotism, as their offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz, is long time head coach Kirk Ferentz’s son. Northwestern’s 126th ranked defense won’t make a difference on Iowa’s ability to move the ball. However, Iowa’s 9th ranked defense is legitimately good, and figures to provide the bulk of Iowa’s scoring opportunities in this game. So they’ll probably win, but this is going to be some real, real sickos football.
  • Oregon @ California (FS1): I don’t trust Cal in any way, shape, or form, and Oregon has looked a lot better since Labor Day. But I won’t be surprised if this winds up being close.
  • Wake Forest @ Louisville (ACCN): In a sort of weird counterpoint to the Auburn situation, Louisville also wants to fire their head coach, Scott Satterfield. Unfortunately for Cardinals supporters, Louisville hasn’t been that bad this year, on the whole. Now, they won’t beat Wake, but still, this probably won’t be a blowout.
  • Temple @ Navy (CBSS): This is one of the games I was referring to between “woeful G5 teams” above. The over/under on this one is 41. Oof. Picking Navy here because, well, I have to pick someone.
  • North Texas @ Western Kentucky (Stadium)
  • New Mexico State @ Massachusetts (espn3.com)
  • Southern Methodist @ Tulsa (ESPN+)
  • Robert Morris @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • South Alabama @ Arkansas State (ESPNU): Tempted to flip a coin for this one. Uh, South Alabama?
  • Missouri @ South Carolina (SEC): I still don’t have a read on Mizzou, and I don’t think the Gamecocks are that good either. (Which, well, take what you will from what that implies about Texas A&M.) I’ll go with South Carolina here though.

7:00:

  • Kentucky @ Tennessee (ESPN): Sorry Vols fans, they’re probably gonna win this one.
  • Colorado State @ Boise State (FS1): Boise isn’t back or anything, but at they’re worst they’re not Colorado State-bad.
  • Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (NFLN): Marshall has now won a game against an FBS team other than Notre Dame, but I still like the Beach Chickens here.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Florida Atlantic (CBSS): Go Blazers.
  • Southern California @ Arizona (Pac12): Zona doesn’t seem like the kind of team that can trouble USC that much.

7:30:

  • Michigan State @ Michigan (ABC): A rare night game in Michigan Stadium means that Sparty is going to take aim at the Wolverines again. While this is the sort of rivalry game that does result in weird outcomes sometimes, I doubt this particular Michigan State bunch is going to make it 2-in-a-row against a Michigan team that still looks to be at full strength.
  • Baylor @ Texas Tech (ESPN2): Picking Baylor here, they’re just better than most of the rest of the Big 12 at this point, outside of Oklahoma State.
  • Arizona State @ Colorado (ESPNU): This game could well be a train wreck, but picking the Sun Devils I guess?
  • Mississippi @ Texas A&M (SEC): Both of these teams had frustrating weeks last weekend, but Ole Miss has the ability to actually do something about it.

8:00: Pittsburgh @ North Carolina (ACCN): Provide Carolina’s defense doesn’t let Pitt hang around, they should be able to run Pitt out of the building.

9:00: Middle Tennessee State @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

10:30:

  • Stanford @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN): Oregon wound up winning by a lot, but I still think UCLA is good, or at a minimum, better than Stanford.
  • San Diego State @ Fresno State (“Oil Can Rivalry”; FS1): Fresno all the way here.
  • Nevada @ San Jose State (CBSS): Same for SJSU.

11:59: Wyoming @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Syracuse @ Clemson (ABC): It’ll be orange on orange, well, unless Clemson wears purple. At any rate, the Tigers offense is still kind of sketch, but I think this is where the soft schedule so far for the Orange will come to bear.
  • Iowa @ Ohio State (FOX): Sure, Iowa’s defense is good, but I feel very confident that Ohio State’s offense will find a way to win by at least a few scores.
  • Cincinnati @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): Cincy has been sort of hanging on despite all the talent they’ve had to replace from last year. I think the Ponies are good, but not good enough here.
  • Kansas @ Baylor (ESPN2): Reality continues to come crashing down on the Jayhawks in this one.
  • Houston @ Navy (ESPNU): Houston remains weird, but not weird enough to lose to Navy.
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Tennessee (SEC)
  • Indiana @ Rutgers (BTN): I have no thoughts about this game. Rutgers I guess?
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Army (CBSS): I’m phone posting, so Army.
  • Akron @ Kent State (ESPN+)

12:30: Duke @ Miami (ACC/RSN): Canes.

1:00:

  • Bowling Green @ Central Michigan (espn3.com)
  • Toledo @ Buffalo (ESPN+)

2:30: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Notre Dame (Peacock)

3:00:

  • West Virginia @ Texas Tech (FS1): College footballs most fun conference this year is the Big 12. No one is super bad, but no one is super good either. It’s very much an “any given week” league. Suffice it to say, I have no clue there. Red Raiders?
  • Rice @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Louisiana State (“Magnolia Bowl”; CBS): Ole Miss can’t defend that we’ll, but I don’t think LSU is going to score the 50+ needed to win.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Oregon (FOX): The Ducks have looked better since getting plastered by Georgia back on Labor Day weekend. Is it good enough to be the first ones to take down the Bruins? Ehhhh, sure. This one should be fun to watch either way.
  • Texas @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Here’s a real test for the Horns. Yes, the Pokes have been taken down a peg with their loss to TCU last week, but they’re still dangerous and the game is in Stillwater. I’m taking Texas, but I don’t feel great about it.
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (ESPN): Boilers?
  • Memphis @ Tulane (ESPN2): Normally this is a classic, but not this year. Green Wave all the way.
  • Brigham Young @ Liberty (ESPNU): LIGHTNING ROUND! Cougars.
  • Northwestern @ Maryland (BTN): Terps.
  • Boston College @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Deacons.
  • Western Michigan @ Miami (CBSS): Broncos.
  • North Texas @ Texas-San Antonio (Stadium)
  • Florida International @ Charlotte (espn3.com)
  • Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Marshall @ James Madison (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC): Tigers.
  • Arizona State @ Stanford (Pac12): Trees.
  • Hawaii @ Colorado State (Team1Sports)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

5:00:

  • Arkansas State @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas State (ESPN+)

6:00: San Jose State @ New Mexico State (Flofootball)

6:30: Fresno State @ New Mexico (FS2): Bulldogs.

7:00:

  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): I am so sorry Bulldogs. You’re playing a Bama team that lost before January. And you lost to Kentucky last week, but it won’t work that way for you. Alas.
  • Boise State @ Air Force (CBSS): Boise hasn’t been good. The Falcons have. This might get ugly.

7:30:

  • Minnesota @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): Penn State’s whole, like, thing seems to be being worse than Ohio State and Michigan but better than everyone else. I don’t get it. And I think it will backfire on them here.
  • Central Florida @ East Carolina (ESPNU): ECU is feisty but I’m defaulting to UCF.
  • Texas A&M @ South Carolina (SEC): I feel like the Gamecocks have been quiet. Too quiet. I think they’ll win a weird one

8:00:

  • Kansas State @ Texas Christian (FS1): With the way the Big 12 is going this year, probably K-State.
  • Pittsburgh @ Louisville (ACCN): Pitt all the way here.
  • Colorado @ Oregon State (Pac12): Beavers.

9:45: Utah State @ Wyoming (FS2): I’ve probably said it before, but the Aggies are really bad this year. Pokes for sure here.

10:30:

    • Washington @ California (ESPN): I’ll stick with my gut that says Cal just can’t score enough to win. Might be interesting though.
    • San Diego State @ Nevada (CBSS): Aztecs I guess.

11:00: Montana Sacramento State (ESPN2)

This Week in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday

7:30:

  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): So, two in a row. It feels weird to even be kind of excited about my own college football team again. That creeping feeling… is that hope? At any rate, I’m trying not to get too far ahead of my skis and keeping in mind that this team still has several issues a new coach and a bye week probably can’t fix. But, at least so far it’s been more fun.
  • Troy @ South Alabama (ESPNU): We’re going south of I-85 for this one. These two in-state rivals are a bit apart right now, as USA appears to be a bit ahead this year. It’s a situation that could change next year, or even sooner however.

Friday

7:30: Tulsa @ Temple (EPSN2): Temple got knocked around pretty good last weekend, so I’m taking Tulsa.

8:00: Alabama-Birmingham @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): The Blazers are off to a decent start, but I think this might go either way.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Iowa State @ Texas (ABC): Texas back? They walloped Oklahoma last week in Dallas, and I think they’ve got the offensive firepower to put away Iowa State in similar fashion. Of course, Texas fans will the first to tell you that performance in Red River is rarely indicative of how the rest of the season will go for the ‘Horns, because if so, they would’ve been “back” many time before.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan (FOX): It’s Michigan’s first real test of the season, and unless Penn State gets a classic weird Penn State upset win, I think the Wolverines will pass with flying colors.
  • Auburn @ Mississippi (ESPN): Ole Miss figures to roll against an Auburn team that still hasn’t fired their coach yet, for whatever reason.
  • Kansas @ Oklahoma (ESPN2): I was asked about this game earlier tonight. My response was thus: this KU team looked actually good, and still looked good despite losing to KU. I’m still concerned about their quarterback, but that said I’m not sure what basis I have to think the Sooners will win after their performances have been. Here’s what I’ve settled on: okay, sure, I’ll pick OU, but, y’all, it’s bad that I even have to think about this.
  • Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): Coastal hasn’t been up to their usual standard this year, but ODU hasn’t been great. Taking the beach chickens.
  • Minnesota @ Illinois (BTN): Speaking of games where I didn’t expect two months ago that I’d have to think about the outcome… not confident in the Gophers here but I’ll take ’em.
  • Colgate @ Army (CBSS)
  • Central Michigan @ Akron (ESPN+)
  • Miami @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

12:30: Miami @ Virginia Tech (ACC/RSN): Miami is a shambles, but VPI is shamble-ier? Let’s go with that.

1:00: Buffalo @ Massachusetts (espn3.com)

2:00:

  • California @ Colorado (Pac12): Cal isn’t good, but Colorado is real bad. Bears all the way here.
  • Connecticut @ Ball State (espn3.com)

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Tennessee (“Third Saturday in October”; CBS): Here we are folks. Bama’s still roughly a touchdown favorite, but that means this is easily the most consequential game in Knoxville in a decade or two. The real variable, in my mind, is whether Bryce Young is going to be healthy enough to play in this game. If he plays, I think Bama can gut out the win. But if he doesn’t… if he doesn’t… Bama will lean on their new Jahmyr Gibbs-led rushing attack (sigh) but the Vols are plenty capable of putting up points. I honestly don’t know. Picking Bama just because that’s the default.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian (ABC): TCU looks like the kings of the Big 12 at the moment, after beating (check notes) Kansas (?) but, seriously, I already thought the Pokes would be one of the best teams in the conference and I think this when they’ll start to show it.
  • Arkansas @ Brigham Young (ESPN): WOMP has fallen off a bit this year, and a mid-season trip to Provo will not, I suspect, help them get their grove back.
  • Maryland @ Indiana (ESPN2): It’s not September anymore, but Maryland’s offense should be enough to see them through here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Georgia (SEC): Yeah, it’s not gonna be nervy at any point for UGA in this one.
  • North Carolina State @ Syracuse (ACCN): A potentially sneaky-good ACC game, that is, if anyone believed Syracuse is actually good. At a minimum, I sure I don’t. I have NC State all the way.
  • Ohio @ Western Michigan (CBSS): Broncos?
  • Charlotte @ Alabama-Birmingham (Stadium)
  • Texas State @ Troy (espn3.com)
  • Kent State @ Toledo (ESPN+)
  • Gardner-Webb @ Liberty (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee State (“100 Miles of Hate”; ESPN+)
  • Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Wisconsin @ Michigan State (FOX): Michigan State has been… kinda bad this year? Like, Wisconsin fired their coach and I’m kinda tempted to take them? But I don’t think I should, just on a general Big Ten east vs. west axis. So, yeah, Sparty, but with a giant question mark.
  • Tulane @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF is bad, Green Wave all the way here.
  • Louisiana Tech @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • James Madison @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

5:30: Arizona @ Washington (Pac12): UDub, at a minimum, their mascot is cooler.

6:00: Rice @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (ESPN): It’s everyone’s favorite not-a-rivalry-that’s-acutally-kind-of-a-rivalry time in the SEC again, and I hope they just get rid of divisions to end this nonsense. Anyway, something dumb will happen and LSU will win, probably.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ South Alabama (NFL): USA?
  • Utah State @ Colorado State (CBSS): Do not, under any circumstance, watch this game. Just trust me on this. Also, uh, I mean… I’d pick something, but these teams are awful. Aggies? I guess? Probably?
  • Arkansas State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Stanford @ Notre Dame (NBC): Cue the articles about Marcus Freeman “figuring it out”.
  • Clemson @ Florida State (ABC): Remember the Bowden Bowl? I do, because I’m getting old. Anyway, yeah, Clemson until I have reason to think otherwise.
  • Memphis @ East Carolina (ESPNU): Memphis.
  • Mississippi State @ Kentucky (SEC): I don’t think Kentucky will have Will Levis here, so probably the Bulldogs.
  • Nebraska @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ Utah (FOX): Hey, welcome back to relevancy, Pac-12. Too bad you’re losing the teams that are helping you get there. At any rate, Utah is still good, but they’re not great, and these feel like teams that are going in different directions. I’ll take the Trojans in a close one on the road.
  • North Carolina @ Duke (ACCN): We beat them, Duke can’t be that good. Carolina all the way here.
  • New Mexico @ New Mexico State (“Rio Grande Rivalry”)

9:00: Washington State @ Oregon State (Pac12): I’ll take the Beavers in Corvallis here.

10:30: Air Force @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV is actually competent this year. But while the Falcons aren’t elite, they can definitely dispatch a merely competent team.

10:45: San Jose State @ Fresno State (FS2): So the Padres-Dodgers series isn’t a sweep, so the Valley Cup will be contented on FS2. Woo. I scoured the Internet and it seems that Jake Haener will not be available for Fresno, so I’m taking SJSU here.

11:59: Nevada @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)