Yearly Archives: 2015

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: ACC

As always, the first to go with the Atlantic Coast Conference. Let’s do this. (Note: FCS teams are marked in italics.)

  1. Virginia (2.25 legit, 1 FCS): @California-Los Angeles, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State. By far the strongest non-conference schedule in college football this year. Though it’s debatable whether Notre Dame is “non-conference” for ACC teams, but that’s something we’ll think about for next year. For now, every FBS non-conference team the Cavs play is rated. Ordinarily, we’d say this doesn’t bode well for Mike London’s job, but we’ve been saying that for what feels like two or three years at this point, so it’s not entirely clear now what would actually get him fired.
  2. Georgia Tech (2, 1): Alcorn State, Tulane, @Notre Dame, Georgia. This also rates as a tough schedule, but even then it feels like a bit of a cop-out because of Notre Dame’s arrangement with the ACC and because Georgia is a yearly rivalry game. That said, this is still one of the toughest GT schedules (overall) that I can recall since I started following them in 2003, so I’d say it deserves some recognition.
  3. Clemson (1.75, 1): Wofford, Appalachian State, Notre Dame, @South Carolina. Of course, the only reason we’re not tied with Clemson is because Georgia is a 1 and South Carolina is a 0.75. If it were tied, I probably would’ve broken the tie by saying Appalachian State is better than Tulane.
  4. Pittsburgh (1.25, 1): Youngstown State, @Akron, @Iowa, Notre Dame. This year it felt like there were a lot of road legs of 2-for-1’s or 3-for-1’s with lesser FBS teams, which hopefully I’ll remember not to harp on too often. I’ll save my other joke on this schedule for the Iowa blurb.
  5. Louisville (1, 1): N-Auburn, Houston, Samford, @Kentucky. First off, good on you folks in the Commonwealth of Kentucky for moving your premier rivalry game to Thanksgiving. As for the schedule, that Louisville-Auburn game could recalibrate a lot of pre-season speculation very, very quickly.
  6. Virginia Tech (1, 1): Ohio State, Furman, @Purdue, @East Carolina. VPI-Ohio State was, in retrospect, the most baffling result of 2014. I… would not expect that again.
  7. Miami (1, 1): Bethune-Cookman, @Florida Atlantic, Nebraska, @Cincinnati. Miami-Nebraska: a match up of two teams that badly wish it were the 80’s or 90’s again.
  8. Syracuse (1, 1): Rhode Island, Central Michigan, Louisiana State, @South Florida. I suggest Syracuse fans take what they can get and treat the game in Tampa as a bowl game, because that’s about as good as it’s probably going to get for them this year.
  9. Florida State (1, 1): Texas State, South Florida, Tennessee-Chattanooga, @Florida. This is usually the point in the rundown when I start running out of things to say, and this schedule is no exception. It is, however, good for a rebuilding reloading Seminole squad.
  10. Wake Forest (1, 1): Elon, @Army, Indiana, @Notre Dame. Deacons versus Priests: the ultimate showdown! (… probably not)
  11. Boston College (1, 2): Maine, Howard, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame. Two FCS teams, good job, Boston College: you now face an uphill road to bowl eligibility!
  12. North Carolina (0.75, 2): N-South Carolina, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical, Illinois, Delaware. This is the first year in a while where I can’t recall reading a swarm of article proclaiming that this will be, in fact, Carolina’s year. Which probably means they’re going to go 9-3 or something. Of course, playing two FCS teams and Illinois helps with that.
  13. Duke (0.25, 1): @Tulane, North Carolina Central, Northwestern, @Army. Army somehow got both Wake Forest and Duke at home this year, good on them! That said, I know Duke is… Duke but still, guys, you’re a Power 5 team, you can’t have two road games both against non-Power 5 teams.
  14. North Carolina State (0, 1): Troy, Eastern Kentucky, @Old Dominion, @South Alabama. Yep, ODU is full FBS this year (along with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, which I should’ve mentioned earlier). See what I said re: two road games in the above Duke blurb.

Up next: the Big Ten.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Prologue

Better late than never, it’s time once again for our review of the non-conference schedules for all of the Power 5 teams.

First, a quick explanation. Every year, my brother and I rate the attractiveness of each team in the Power 5 conferences plus a select few others on a scale from 0 to 1. I then apply these ratings to each team’s non-coference schedule. The whole thing is a subjective exercise essentially designed to judge how excited one might be for a team’s schedule, but it’s a fun overview and provides an additional preview for the kind of games we usually get in September.

Cincinnati was unrated this year, which means the only teams outside of the Power 5 with ratings are Notre Dame (1), Brigham Young (0.5), and Boise State (0.5).

I usually close the first post with a quick snapshot of each conference’s average rating, so here’s that:

  1. Southeastern (0.643)
  2. Big 12 (0.611)
  3. Pac-12 (0.521)
  4. Atlantic Coast (0.482)
  5. Big Ten (0.464)

Compared to last year, the Big 12 has closed the gap with the SEC just slightly, while the other conferences remain unchanged. Of course, I now just noticed that last year I put the ACC behind the Big Ten despite their ratings being the same. Whoops!

Either way, first up, the ACC.

2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup Advancement Scenarios, Part 2

Post-Group B Update

With Group B settled, here are the scenarios for United States’s opponent on Saturday.

There are there contenders entering the last day of group play: El Salvador, sitting on two points, Guatemala, with one point, and Cuba, with no points. Since Guatemala has a -2 goal differential while El Salvador has a -1, a draw will not suffice. Therefore, the opponent will be the winner of Guatemala-Cuba, and if there is no winner, it will be El Salvador.


Original post:

Here’s the advancement scenarios for Groups B and C. I think I’ve worked out most of the bugs. Let me know if you spot anything incorrect in the comments.

Group B

Jamaica:

Costa Rica:

El Salvador:

Canada:

Group C
Group C is a lot more straightforward, and also a lot more boring.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Mexico:

Guatemala:

Cuba:

Top Two Third Place Teams
Right now we know that Panama is the third place team from Group A, with three points. As you can see above, any of Group B’s teams could finish in third, though the most likely is El Salvador if they draw or lose to Jamaica. A draw would give El Salvador three points, while a loss would keep them parked at two. Group C’s third place team will probably be Guatemala. If Guatemala wins outright against Canada, they will definitely advance with four points. If Guatemala only draws Canada, they will have two points and out (as a draw would not allow them to make up their -2 goal differential).

Future updates to my program may include the ability to deal with this sort of scenario, but I don’t have the time to do that at the moment.

2015 CONACAF Gold Cup Advancement Scenarios – Group A

These are the scenarios for every possible permutation of the teams involved scoring four goals each. Note: this currently does not include third place team advancement, I will add that when it is narrowed down a bit more. This is a work in progress, as I’m testing a program I wrote, so it may be wrong!

Group A
Just an archive, that sort of preserves a buggier version of the program.

United States:

I… think we got this.

Panama:

Panama finishes second with any win over the US, but things get weird fast. And Panama fans may (not want to) remember what happened the last time they went into a game needing a win over the United States.

Honduras:

Haiti:

2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup TV Schedule

Because I hated the official schedule as soon as I laid eyes on it, here’s an easier-to-read version with American TV info. Watch this post, as I’ll update it as necessary.

Date Team vs. Team Time (ET) Network Location Group
7/7 Panama 1-1 Haiti 7:00 PM FS2 Frisco, TX A
7/7 United States 2-1 Honduras 9:30 PM FS1 Frisco, TX A
7/8 Costa Rica 2-2 Jamaica 8:00 PM FS2 Carson, CA B
7/8 El Salvador 0-0 Canada 10:30 PM FS2 Carson, CA B
7/9 Trinidad and Tobago 3-1 Guatemala 7:00 PM FS2 Chicago, IL C
7/9 Mexico 6-0 Cuba 9:30 PM FS1 Chicago, IL C
7/10 Honduras 1-1 Panama 6:00 PM FS2 Foxborough, MA A
7/10 United States 2-1 Haiti 8:30 PM FS1 Foxborough, MA A
7/11 Jamaica 1-0 Canada 6:30 PM FS2 Houston, TX B
7/11 Costa Rica 1-1 El Salvador 9:00 PM FS2 Houston, TX B
7/12 Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Cuba 6:30 PM FS2 Glendale, AZ C
7/12 Guatemala 0-0 Mexico 9:00 PM FS2 Glendale, AZ C
7/13 Haiti 1-0 Honduras 7:00 PM FS1 Kansas City, KS A
7/13 Panama 1-1 United States 9:30 PM FS1 Kansas City, KS A
7/14 Jamaica 1-0 El Salvador 6:00 PM FS1 Toronto, ON, CA B
7/14 Canada 0-0 Costa Rica 8:30 PM FS1 Toronto, ON, CA B
7/15 Cuba 1-0 Guatemala 6:00 PM FS2 Charlotte, NC C
7/15 Mexico 4-4 Trinidad and Tobago 8:30 PM FS2 Charlotte, NC C
7/18 United States 6-0 Cuba 5:00 PM FOX Baltimore, MD Quarterfinal 1
7/18 Haiti 0-1 Jamaica 8:00 PM FS2 Baltimore, MD Quarterfinal 2
7/19 Trinidad and Tobago 1-1 (aet)
(5-6)
Panama 4:30 PM FS1 East Rutherford, NJ Quarterfinal 3
7/19 Mexico 1-0 (aet) Costa Rica 7:30 PM FS1 East Rutherford, NJ Quarterfinal 4
7/22 United States 1-2 Jamaica 6:00 PM FS1 Atlanta, GA Semi-final 1
7/22 Panama 1-2 (aet) Mexico 9:00 PM FS1 Atlanta, GA Semi-final 2
7/25 United States 1-1 (aet)

(2-3)
Panama 4:00 PM FS2 Chester, PA Third Place Game
7/26 Jamaica 1-3 Mexico 7:30 PM FS1 Philadelphia, PA Final

For scores, results, and standings the best resource is probably the Wikipedia page.