2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup Advancement Scenarios, Part 2

Post-Group B Update

With Group B settled, here are the scenarios for United States’s opponent on Saturday.

There are there contenders entering the last day of group play: El Salvador, sitting on two points, Guatemala, with one point, and Cuba, with no points. Since Guatemala has a -2 goal differential while El Salvador has a -1, a draw will not suffice. Therefore, the opponent will be the winner of Guatemala-Cuba, and if there is no winner, it will be El Salvador.

Original post:

Here’s the advancement scenarios for Groups B and C. I think I’ve worked out most of the bugs. Let me know if you spot anything incorrect in the comments.

Group B


Costa Rica:

El Salvador:


Group C
Group C is a lot more straightforward, and also a lot more boring.

Trinidad and Tobago:




Top Two Third Place Teams
Right now we know that Panama is the third place team from Group A, with three points. As you can see above, any of Group B’s teams could finish in third, though the most likely is El Salvador if they draw or lose to Jamaica. A draw would give El Salvador three points, while a loss would keep them parked at two. Group C’s third place team will probably be Guatemala. If Guatemala wins outright against Canada, they will definitely advance with four points. If Guatemala only draws Canada, they will have two points and out (as a draw would not allow them to make up their -2 goal differential).

Future updates to my program may include the ability to deal with this sort of scenario, but I don’t have the time to do that at the moment.