Yearly Archives: 2015

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 4

They’re late but they’re here.

First, let’s start with the “Not Enough Teams” watch. This time around, I’ve got 78 teams for 80 slots. I will say that I tried to be a bit more optimistic this time around, and well having more data always helps. I’m naturally not a very optimistic person, but if I had to guess, I think we’re going to make it.

I’ll do my first breakdown of the year.

Playoff
I went with Clemson, Baylor, Alabama, and Ohio State in that order. I would say my jilted team in this case would the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game, assuming they win out otherwise. We’ve still got plenty of season to go, though. It’s entirely possible the Big 12’s round-robin schedule will eat its own children again, or Ohio State losing to Michigan State.

The last slot of the playoff controlled bowls was probably the toughest, though. I went back and modified my predictions so that I had Utah beating UCLA and wining the Pac-12 South, which allowed me to slot them into the Fiesta Bowl. The winner of the American is probably still on the fast-track to the Group of Five slot, though the question is if it’ll be Houston or Navy, I’d think. Otherwise, I don’t think my picks are controversial at this point.

ACC
I have North Carolina winning the Coastal, but I don’t think a two-loss UNC (one current loss plus a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game) is going to get into a CFP-controlled bowl. Otherwise, the picks proceed apace. I have Virginia Tech edging into a bowl on the back of a Frank Beamer farewell tour, even if that means a return to the Military Bowl for a second straight year. Coach-less and 7-5 Miami get sent to Detroit.

Big 12
With TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State, I have them taking a loss to Baylor. I’m not sure a two loss TCU makes it into the CFP-controlled bowls. I don’t think Oklahoma is going to fare well in their backloaded schedule, either. I have Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia finishing 6-6. Kansas State figures to just miss out.

Big Ten
Michigan State’s shock loss to Nebraska removes them from CFP-bowl contention, while not really doing much for Nebraska’s own bowl prospects, so that has to be a bummer for the Big Ten. In fact, I don’t have the Big Ten west faring well as a whole, with that sixth win likely eluding Illinois as well as Nebraska and Minnesota.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is doing its part, especially with probably the best ever team to lose to a FCS team, Washington State, likely to finish 8-4 at this point. (Seriously, who saw that coming back in September?)

SEC
The SEC figures to be the only conference to get three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls, but the drop off does seem pretty stark after Alabama, LSU, and Florida. The best of the bunch seems to be a 9-3 Georgia. (Yeah.) But hey, I did manage to set up a Texas-Texas A&M matchup in the Texas Bowl. (Seriously, it’s just too perfect, which is probably why it won’t happen. But seriously, the Texas Bowl! Come on!)

Group of Five
As I said earlier, the winner of Houston-Navy figures to have the best shot at the Group of Five slot, followed by Temple probably. Undefeated Toledo may have had a shot, but that likely slipped away.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): This game is vastly more interesting than anyone would’ve predicted back in August, I’d say. That said, having watched both these teams play my team, I’m going with the Domers all the way.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (ESPN): As James Earl Jones intoned when the Red October purposely steered into the path of that torpedo, “Mother of God”.
  • Duke @ North Carolina (ESPN2): This might be the most important edition of this rivalry to ever be played on natural grass. Again, having played (and lost to!) both these teams, I have to go with Carolina.
  • Texas Tech @ West Virginia (FS1): It’s not just the top of the Big 12 that’s a puzzle right now, it’s also the middle-to-bottom. That said, Texas Tech has generally acquitted themselves better over the Big 12 schedule and look primed to take this one.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Northwestern (ESPNU): Don’t look, but Penn State is 7-2. Actually, go ahead and take a look now because those seven wins are over nobodies and the schedule is horribly backloaded, with the Wildcats being the tip of the spear, followed by Michigan and Michigan State. 7-2 looks like it’s about to become 7-5.
  • Central Florida @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): Central Florida continues their quest to be one of the most historically awful teams ever and look primed to lose to Tulsa.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): I don’t buy the crisis over in Athens. I just don’t. Lots of teams having down years that are worse than UGA’s, and besides, it’s not like they had a quarterback. Things look to be on the upswing starting here.
  • Illinois @ Purdue (BTN): Yeah, so it turns out that Illinois is as bad as we all thought, it just took a while for them to realize it as well. Yeah, that’s right, I’m going to take a 2-6 team over a 4-4 team, and there’s nothing you can do to stop me!
  • Akron @ Massachusetts (CBSS): Akron will zip into the end zone early and often in this one.

12:30:

  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): While BC’s defense is legitimately stingy, they’re just screwed if anyone can score, like, 10 points against them. Which NC State probably will.
  • Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC): While I don’t think they’re going to win, I think the ‘Cuse have generally exceeded expectations this year.

1:00: Stanford @ Colorado (Pac12): I feel like Stanford’s offense is probably best described through a series of onomatopoeia. Words like “pow!”, “bam!”, etc.

3:00: Virginia @ Miami (ACC/RSN): I refuse to believe Miami will lose this game. I won’t accept it. Though it’s odd that Virginia will play two teams in a row coming off miracle, last-second wins. Perhaps they’ll get two let-downs in a row?

3:30:

  • Florida State @ Clemson (ABC): I have zero problems with Clemson being #1 in the meaningless first edition of the college playoff rankings. For starters, they’re meaningless at this point. Also, I think Clemson really is that good. FSU is good, but they have a lot of issues, especially on their offensive line. Unlike us, Clemson’s defensive line doesn’t need to have the game of their lives, they just need to have a normal day at the office and they should be able to shut FSU down.
  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FOX): Oklahoma State is undefeated, but it seems a flimsy sort of undefeated, as though it shouldn’t really count. I’ve got TCU all the way here.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi (CBS): After a two game respite, it’s back to the grind for Bert and company. By which I mean they’re going to lose badly.
  • Iowa @ Indiana (ESPN): Iowa is also a puzzling undefeated team, but they remain safe for now.
  • Cincinnati @ Houston (ESPN2): Speaking of undefeated teams, this could be a really fun undercard. I like Houston here.
  • Arizona State @ Washington State (FS1): I’m going with Wazzou because, well, why the hell not?
  • Army @ Air Force (ESPNU): I’m going to go ahead and say that Army does not look like a huge favorite to regain the Command-in-Chief’s trophy this year.
  • Utah State @ New Mexico (CBSS): The Lobos are actually not awful this year, but these Aggies are still better.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan (BTN): Michigan rolls.

4:00:

  • Connecticut @ Temple (ESPNEWS): Temple vs. Memphis is in two weeks, don’t screw it up, Owls.
  • South Carolina @ Tennessee (SEC): Two programs, opposite directions. The Vols look good in this one.

4:30: California-Los Angeles @ Oregon State (Pac12): It’s been a frustrating year for Bruin fans, but this game and their next look very winnable, and they still have a pretty good shot at the Pac-12 South title.

7:00:

  • Michigan State @ Nebraska (ESPN): Sparty shouldn’t have too many problems in this one.
  • Navy @ Memphis (ESPN2): This is probably the highlight of the “bridge” games to the LSU-Alabama game. Navy should figure to give Memphis fits, but the Tigers have the offense to keep up. I suspect Navy will find themselves outmanned in the second half.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma (ESPNU): The Sooners should continue their quest to play spoiler in the Big 12.

7:30:

  • Utah @ Washington (FOX): I still like the Utes well enough to beat UDub, but I’m not sure about the rest of their schedule.
  • Auburn @ Texas A&M (SEC): I can’t think of any other team that more epitomizes the “boom” and “bust” cycle of college athletics than Auburn.
  • South Florida @ East Carolina (CBSS): ECU should(?) be able to handle this one.

8:00

  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): So this one is tough. That said, I still think Alabama has the defense to stop LSU, and while it’s happened before, I think Alabama has the advantage in a low scoring game at home.
  • Minnesota @ Ohio State (ABC): Even without their nominal starter, the Buckeyes should be able to handle this one.

10:30

  • Arizona @ Southern California (ESPN): The resurgent Trojans figure to handle this one easily.
  • California @ Oregon (ESPN2): This might be the toughest pick of the day. I’m going with Cal based purely on gut.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 3

The latest predictions are up, for what that’s worth. Why so glum?

I still have an unprecedented seven open bowl slots. I’m pretty sure I’ve never gotten into November hurting for teams, but this year looks particularly dire. It may be worth noting some regulars that do not appear in this week’s edition:

  • Virginia Tech (2nd longest active bowl streak at 22 years)
  • Georgia Tech (tied-3rd longest active bowl streak at 18 years)
  • Nebraska (perennial power)
  • South Carolina (consistently made bowls under Spurrier)
  • Kansas State (is the magic running out?)

And those are power five teams that have been to a bowl at least the past five years in a row.

Part of the problem are also the smaller teams. After usually getting an automatic loss or two in the early part of the season, these teams are behind the eight-ball in getting to six wins. Here’s how many I have getting in from each of the minor conferences:

  • American: 7/13
  • Conference USA: 7/12
  • Mid-American: 6/14
  • Mountain West: 6/12
  • Sun Belt: 5/11

The Power 5 aren’t much better. I have half the ACC Atlantic missing on a bowl game, for instance.

Hopefully, it’s a situation that improves in the next couple of weeks, or else this is going to start getting tough.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Syracuse @ Florida State (ABC): I suspect Florida State’s… suspect offensive line will be less of an issue against the ‘Cuse.
  • Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPN): Auburn seems to be a solidly boom-bust cycle sort of team, and this year is definitely more on the “bust” side.
  • Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN2): Penn State may have some of the six easiest wins in college football, while the Illini have been better than anyone expected. I’d say this game is a tossup, so I’ll guess in favor of the Nittany Lions.
  • Nebraska @ Purdue (ESPNU): Whatever issues the Huskers may have, they won’t be issues against Purdue.
  • Central Florida @ Cincinnati (ESPNEWS): Cincy should handle the worst team in major college football.
  • South Carolina @ Texas A&M (SEC): I keep thinking that the Gamecocks will figure it out one of these weeks, and it could well be here. Odds are against them, though.
  • South Florida @ Navy (CBSS): USF has looked solid this year, but Navy has handled this first year in a conference thing with aplomb. I like them here.
  • Rutgers @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin should be able to handle this one.

12:30: Virginia Tech @ Boston College (ACC): This will almost certainly be the lowest scoring game of the day. Going with VPI since the Hokies seems to have at least a semblance of an offense, though.

3:00:

  • Southern California @ California (FOX): Welcome back, USC! Though given their success with their interim coaches the last few years, perhaps their domination of Utah wasn’t that surprising? Either way, it makes this game all that more intriguing. USC can out-talent anyone in the country, including Cal. The main thing with USC is whether they show up, and if they do, I think they have a very good chance to win.
  • Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): UCLA’s loss to Arizona State is starting to look more baffling than good, but they should ease past the Buffs. Speaking of Colorado, though, who would’ve guessed that Utah would be competitive more quickly?
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): Whoo boy. I’m still not tired of watching the replays of the miracle from last weekend. I celebrated so vigorously that my deltoids were sore the next day. That said, I wish I could see a full replay from the north endzone.
    Anyway, this game. Virginia’s had a schedule every bit as difficult as ours and with arguably worse results. What’s the take away from that? It’s hard to be sure. What is hard for the Jackets is winning in Charlottesville, where we’ve won the all of four times ever. If you enjoy anniversaries that are multiples of five, though, then 25 years ago on Tuesday GT won at then-#1 UVA, a win that put them on the map and primed to be a candidate for #1 themselves at the end of the season. Of course, tying with the sentence before that one, GT would then lose in Charlottesville every other year until 2009. So it’s a bit helter-skelter up there.
    My main worry in this contest is how the team reacts to the win last week. It was awesome. The return is running continuously on loop. Lance Austin is already a legend. Jamal Golden won ACC Defensive Player of the Week for his interception in the end zone, the first thrown by Golson all season. The injuries remain, especially after multiple defensive backs left the game against FSU. So which team shows up? The one that couldn’t block anyone for a month and a half and had horrendous special teams play? Or the one that could rush the passer, seal the outside running lanes, and provide a one-in-lifetime special teams play?

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): In the new, post-Florida-wins-every-year phase of this rivalry, it’s been downright wacky and tough to predict. That said, I feel like I can reasonably pick the Gators here.
  • Clemson @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN2): Clemson should remain undefeated here.
  • Maryland @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN2): As should the Hawkeyes.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ESPN): …as should the Cowboys.
  • Oklahoma @ Kansas (FS1): This one will likely have the largest margin of victory, though.
  • Boise State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): Boy howdy, which of these mid-afternoon to watch is pretty obvious, isn’t it? Boise should roll.
  • San Diego State @ Colorado State (CBSS): The Aztecs have smashed through their conference schedule so far with aplomb, a trend which figures to continue here.

4:00: Tulsa @ Southern Methodist (ESPNEWS):I’d love to have more to tell you about this game, but SMU is 1-6, so…

7:00:

  • Michigan @ Minnesota (ESPN): It’s been a rough week for the Gophers, after Jerry Kill had to step down for his health. It’s a real bummer, to put it mildly. As for the game, Minnesota’s three losses have all come to teams with functioning defenses, which Michigan has, to say the least.
  • Vanderbilt @ Houston (ESPN2): Well, Vandy’s a big underdog in this one. Who am I to disagree?
  • Miami @ Duke (ESPNU): Miami is sort of the ACC’s version of USC, a capable team that has issues living up to the expectations created by the talent. With Al Golden gone, will the Hurricanes get a similar result? I don’t feel safe calling that.
  • Texas @ Iowa State (FS1): Iowa State just fired their offensive coordinator. While head coaches getting canned in-season is unfortunate but understandable, dismissing and hiring new coordinators in many ways makes less sense (and it certainly happens less often). Suffice it to say, I’m going with the Longhorns here.
  • Tulane @ Memphis (CBSS): Three of Memphis’s next four games are against solid to really good teams. This is not one of them.
  • Oregon State @ Utah (Pac12): I think the Utes will rebound from their devastating loss last week (it’s not like they’re out of it in the Pac-12 South), but I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a hangover.

7:30: Tennessee @ Kentucky (SEC): I’m not sure which of these teams to believe in, so I’m going to go with my gut and say Tennessee.

8:00: Notre Dame @ Temple (ABC): It’s cool Temple is undefeated and all, but their “signature win” this year is an eight point win over Cincinnati. Notre Dame has at least 4 better wins. I don’t think this will be close.

10:30:

  • Stanford @ Washington State (ESPN): As has been observed elsewhere, Wazzou is essentially having a breakout season that started with a loss to FCS Portland State. While I don’t think they have any shot of beating Stanford, hey, it’s Halloween in Pullman, weird stuff can happen. (Probably not, though.)
  • Air Force @ Hawaii (CBSS): Hawaii is kind of awful this year. Did you know Norm Chow is still their head coach? I had to look it up, so I can confirm he is. Huh.

11:00: Arizona @ Washington (FS1): Washington has a bizarre win over Southern Cal to their credit and not much else. Going with the Wildcats here.

To end, a quick shoutout to two of my favorite college football writers, whom I have followed across multiple sites over the years. Holly and Matt, I look forward to seeing where you land.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 2

They’re late but they’re up. I’m three teams short again, huzzah!

Just in case, I looked up the top 5 in the most recent APR scores in case I need some 5-7 teams. Problem is, it has to be one of the top five in the APR, and no in that group is looking likely to finish 5-7. (Indeed, they’ll all probably finish with much better records.) Again, there is no need to panic just yet, because as upsets happen things will shake out. That said, also for that reason I’m not comfortable doing a full analysis just yet. Look for that after Week 10 of the season, I’d say.