Monthly Archives: September 2015

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

Okay, since I kind of backed myself all the way up to the first day of the season, I’ll provide links to all the individual conference breakdowns here:

And now, let us complete our yearly ritual.

First, the list of shame, that is, teams that scheduled more than one FCS opponent: Boston College, Kentucky, and North Carolina. It’s not great that two of the three are ACC teams, but hey, at least there’s only three.

This is normally where the best schedule list would appear, but I’m having a bit of a crisis. Virginia is the only school with a rating better than 2, but they’re awful, and one of those teams is Notre Dame, which other ACC teams are also benefiting from. Instead of a ranking, I’m going to produce a list of teams that I thought of as having better schedules:

  • Virginia (2.25 legit, 1 FCS): @California-Los Angeles, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State. It’s still a pretty good schedule, even minus Notre Dame, with the road trip to Pasadena and a visit from Boise.
  • Texas (1.25, 0): @Notre Dame, Rice, California. Accounting for the ACC and Notre Dame business, this may be the best. A road trip to South Bend, and a visit from a (hopefully) up-and-coming Pac-12 team. If Cal had been better recently, this would have rated a lot higher.
  • Nebraska (1.5, 0): Brigham Young, South Alabama, @Miami, Southern Mississippi. It’s not quite a visit to the OB, but that’s still an interesting trip.
  • Northwestern (1.25, 1): Stanford, Eastern Illinois, @Duke, Ball State. This is a big schedule for a team like Northwestern, which is generally not great but it can at least be said to try.

And now, the conference averages, though again the ACC’s rating is probably inflated by Notre Dame:

  1. ACC (0.25)
  2. Pac-12 (0.22)
  3. Big Ten (0.203)
  4. Big 12 (0.15)
  5. SEC (0.08)

And that’s that! I’m sorry it was late this year, but better late than never. Next up: Thursday and Friday’s opening slate!

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference State: SEC

The SEC is the hard-to-get conference, as they have the most desirable teams but the worst out-of-conference schedules. This never seems to come back to bite them, though…

  1. South Carolina (1.5 legit, 1): N-North Carolina, Central Florida, Citadel, Clemson. Yeah, this is what passes for the best non-conference schedule in the SEC this year. Let’s just get on with it.
  2. Florida (1, 0): New Mexico State, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida State. I wanted to rank this below Alabama and Tennessee because their marquee OOC game isn’t a rivalry game, but there are also, technically, no FCS teams on this schedule, so I put it ahead. (I say technically because, well, as awful as New Mexico State has been the past few years…)
  3. Alabama (1, 1): N-Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana-Monroe, Charleston Southern. The game against Wisconsin in Texas is the highlight, unless you’re in a position to buy tickets for it, apparently.
  4. Tennessee (1, 1): Bowling Green State, Oklahoma, Western Carolina, North Texas. Tennessee is the exception to the scheduling rule for the SEC most of the time, with other examples like the recent home-and-home with UCLA. Keep doing you, Vols.
  5. Auburn (0.75, 1): N-Louisville, Jacksonville State, San Jose State, Idaho. Auburn does not, as far as I can tell, currently have a game at San Jose schedules, so no “Do You Know The Way to San Jose” jokes… for now.
  6. Georgia (0.75, 1): Louisiana-Monroe, Southern, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech. Dear Fellow Georgia Tech Fans: Georgia Southern no longer runs Paul Johnson’s offense, and was probably not scheduled with the intention to prepare them for us. Thank you.
  7. Kentucky (0.75, 1.5): Louisiana-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Charlotte, Louisville. Not many transitional teams left, but Kentucky managed to find one in Charlotte. Good job, guys.
  8. Texas A&M (0.5, 1): N-Arizona State, Ball State, Nevada, Western Carolina. I am having a hard time describing how bummed I was when I recently discovered the “A&M” in “Texas A&M” hasn’t actually stood for anything since 1963. I liked typing out “Agricultural and Mechanical”, and now it feels like it’s been taken away form me despite the fact it was always incorrect in the first place. Grr.
  9. Missouri (0.5, 1): Southeast Missouri State, @Arkansas State, Connecticut, Brigham Young. One of these days, I ought to compile a table of each team’s most played FCS teams, because I highly suspect Jacksonville State would rate highly for Auburn and SE Missouri State would rate high for Mizzou.
  10. Arkansas (0.5, 1): Texas-El Paso, Toledo, Texas Tech, Tennessee-Martin. Arkansas is playing two teams from Texas this year. I’m telling y’all, they want to go to the Big 12. (No, they really don’t.)
  11. Mississippi (0, 1): Tennessee-Martin, Fresno State, New Mexico State, @Memphis. I doubt that game in the Liberty Bowl is going to be much of a road game for the Rebels (Tennesseans essentially consider Memphis part of Mississippi anyway), but it could be interesting if the Tigers are feisty again this year.
  12. Louisiana State (0, 1): McNeese State, @Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky. Dear Les Miles: The turf in the Carrier Dome is artificial, it would probably be inadvisable to taste it. Yours Truly, asimsports.
  13. Mississippi State (0, 1): @Southern Mississippi, Northwestern State, Troy, Louisiana Tech. Fun fact: all of these schools are located latitudinally south of Starkville.
  14. Vanderbilt (0, 1): Western Kentucky, Austin Peay, @Middle Tennessee State, @Houston. I have a sinking feeling that Vandy could lose two or three of these. Should’ve figured out a way to hold on to James Franklin, I guess.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Pac-12

I guess I’m not surprised that the conference with a 3-way tie for first and a 4-way tie for second was the Pac-12. Or, at least, I probably shouldn’t be.

As a reminder, my tie breakers are the number of FCS teams played followed by my subjective judgement of “strength”.

  1. Utah (1 legit, 0 FCS): Michigan, Utah State, @Fresno State. I can dig this schedule. You get a home date with newly-Harbaugh’ed Michigan, and you try to withstand Fresno attempting to  extract revenge for a blowout loss last year.
  2. Stanford (1, 0): @Northwestern, Central Florida, Notre Dame. They don’t get any “legit” credit for the Wildcats, but this is still solid.
  3. Southern California (1, 0): Arkansas State, Idaho, @Notre Dame. Entirely buoyed by the visit to South Bend. Loses the tiebreaker to Stanford thanks to the Cardinal’s trip to Evanston.
  4. Oregon (1, 1): Eastern Washington, @Michigan State, Georgia State. Oregon-Michigan State should be great again, and is something we’re really looking forward to.
  5. Oregon State (1, 1): Weber State, @Michigan, San Jose State. It’s been a down few years for the Beavers, but two wins in the non-conference slate should help them back to a bowl.
  6. Arizona State (1, 1): N-Texas A&M, Cal Poly, New Mexico. I really struggled with how to do Cal Poly’s name, since my thing is typing out the full name of schools. Unfortunately, the only acceptable forms for Cal Poly are: Cal Poly, California Polytechnic State University, and California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. So I went with Cal Poly.
  7. California (1, 1): Grambling State, San Diego State, @Texas. Of course Cal manages to schedule a road game to the only Texas city that resembles Berkeley in any way, shape, or form.
  8. California-Los Angeles (0.5, 0): Virginia, @Nevada-Las Vegas, Brigham Young. Between UVA and BYU and no FCS teams, this schedule feels like it should rate better, but alas, it does not.
  9. Washington (0.5, 1): @Boise State, Sacramento State, Utah State. This is the first visit by a Pac-10/12 team to Boise since Oregon State lost there in 2010, though what I was really hoping to say in this space was that it was the first such visit since the Puchin’ LaGarrette Blount game in 2009, but alas.
  10. Washington State (0, 1): Portland State, @Rutgers, Wyoming. The visit to Piscataway seems random, but I’ll take it. Also watch out for the Wyoming uniform watch later this year.
  11. Arizona (0, 1): Texas-San Antonio, @Nevada, Northern Arizona. I started thinking that my angle for this might be Arizona being brought low with a Rece Davis “You don’t just walk in to Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium…” and then I remembered he’s not hosting College Football Final anymore. Alas.
  12. Colorado (0, 1): @Hawaii, Massachusetts, N-Colorado State, Nicholls State. No, Colorado, terrible teams are supposed to use that Hawaii away game at the end of the season so it’s like a bowl game! Sheesh. They did at least use it to schedule an extra game, though.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Big 12

America’s heartland is a place of hearty folk, unpredictable weather, and the source of our bread. Also, apparently, soft out-of-conference scheduling, at least at the bottom end. Let’s get to it.

  1. Texas (1.25 legit, 0 FCS): @Notre Dame, Rice, California. This is one of my favorite schedules. Two traditional powers that haven’t met in 19 years, a game once mentioned in a JFK speech, and a visit from a Pac-12 team. Good job.
  2. Oklahoma (0.5, 0): Akron, @Tennessee, Tulsa. Less inspiring, but I still like the trip to Knoxville.
  3. Texas Tech (0.25, 1): Sam Houston State, Texas-El Paso, @Arkansas. Arkansas’s recent history is why they’re rated so low, otherwise this would be higher. It’s a good sign from Texas Tech after a good run of terrible non-conference scheduling.
  4. Texas Christian (0.25, 1): @Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, Southern Methodist. On the road to a Big Ten team is nothing to sneeze at, even if that team is Minnesota.
  5. Iowa State (0.25, 1): Northern Iowa, Iowa, @Toledo. This is where things start to fall off a cliff. First, you’ve got a fair chance that they might lose to one, or both, Iowa teams. Then there’s a road trip to a MAC team? Wha?
  6. Kansas (0, 1): South Dakota State, Memphis, @Rutgers. There’s a pretty good chance Kansas may go 0-3 against this schedule. I’m not even kidding.
  7. West Virginia (0, 1): Georgia Southern, Liberty, Maryland. I already praised Maryland for playing West Virginia, so I pretty much have nothing else to say about this one, except that Georgia Southern game in Morgantown has the potential to be interesting.
  8. Oklahoma State (0, 1): @Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, Texas-San Antonio. Another MAC roadtrip! What is this world coming to?
  9. Baylor (0, 1): @Southern Methodist, Lamar, Rice. The best thing I can say about this schedule is that two of the three teams used to be in the Southwest Conference, but if comes down to it again, blowing the doors off these teams is probably going to do Baylor little favors.
  10. Kansas State (0, 1): South Dakota, @Texas-San Antonio, Louisiana Tech. K-State spices things up with a trip to the Alamodome, but that will mostly have the effect of making me have to remember that they may not be the Alamo Bowl’s top selection if that’s an issue in a few months.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

The Big Ten has a reputation as a conference of beefy linemen, and many of their schools also provide the beef in their non-conference scheduling, though after the top few it proves to be a bit lean.

  1. Nebraska (1.5 legit, 0 FCS): Brigham Young, South Alabama, @Miami, Southern Mississippi. Yes, that is the Miami in Florida, providing the Huskers with an intriguing road-trip that I am obligated to mention reminds one of the 90’s. There’s also a visit from the Stormin’ Mormons for good measure.
  2. Northwestern (1.25, 1): Stanford, Eastern Illinois, @Duke, Ball State. Stanford should provide an opening weekend barometer for both these teams. For Northwestern, it may be an early indicator if they can be a threat in the middle ranks of the Big Ten. A visit to Wallace Wade Stadium should also provide some intrigue for both sides.
  3. Michigan State (1, 0): @Western Michigan, Oregon, Air Force, Central Michigan. Michigan State isn’t the only Big Ten to have a weird away game, but considering WMU’s head coach it’s probably the more interesting of the two contests. Even though they don’t get credit for it, I also like the Air Force appearance here.
  4. Michigan (1, 0): @Utah, Oregon State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Brigham Young. If Michigan gets through this slate 4-0 in Jim Harbaugh’s initial campaign, then the Michigan hype machine will be in full force come October.
  5. Wisconsin (1, 0): N-Alabama, Miami, Troy, Hawaii. Wisconsin-Alabama is, of course, the headlining out-of-conference game of the season. Unfortunately, the rest of the schedule is nothing special (that’s the Miami in Ohio), which is why it’s only ranked fifth.
  6. Minnesota (1, 0): Texas Christian, @Colorado State, Kent State, Ohio. Indeed, it was tough to even put this schedule behind Wisconsin, as TCU+Colorado State is arguably better than just Alabama. Nonetheless, this ranking also takes into account the relative prestige of Minnesota and Wisconsin at this point.
  7. Ohio State (0.75, 0): @Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan. Urban Meyer will seek to revenge himself in Blacksburg. I am not predicting good things for the Hokies. Otherwise, this schedule is pretty thin, but Ohio State did skate into the playoff with that VPI loss and, well, it pays to be in the Big Ten sometimes. (Where “sometimes” is “most of the time”.)
  8. Purdue (0.75, 1): @Marshall, Indiana State, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green State. Purdue could be in some real trouble in the hills of West Virginia, and if that doesn’t go well for them then the rest of this schedule might not either.
  9. Maryland (0.5, 1): Richmond, Bowling Green State, South Florida, @West Virginia. Even if it’s not WVU-Pitt, I still approve of this Maryland-West Virginia game that’s been happening the pats few years.
  10. Illinois (0.5, 1): Kent State, Western Illinois, @North Carolina, Middle Tennessee State. So, remember that time Illinois fired their head coach last week? Yeah, this should be fun.
  11. Rutgers (0.25, 1): Norfolk State, Washington State, Kansas, N-Army. Rutgers just barely gets some points from Wazzou, but otherwise there’s not much here.
  12. Iowa (0.25, 1): Illinois State, @Iowa State, Pittsburgh, North Texas. Believe it or not, more milquetoast schedules exist!
  13. Pennsylvania State (0, 0): @Temple, Buffalo, San Diego State, Army. Like this one! Also, while it’s an interesting way to rekindle that rivalry, one wonders if a visit by Penn State to Temple really is more about playing in a large NFL stadium on opening weekend.
  14. Indiana (0, 1): Southern Illinois, Florida International, Western Kentucky, @Wake Forest. Given Indiana’s luck, they’ll beat Wake but lose to Western Kentucky.