This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Air Force @ Army (CBS): Air Force should be able able to seal up their first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 2011 in this one.


  • Wisconsin @ Rutgers (ESPN): The pain doesn’t look likely to stop for the Scarlet Knights just yet, who are presumably reeling aftre consecutive blowout losses to Ohio State and Nebraska. Fortunately for them, though, they get Indiana next week.
  • Maryland @ Pennslyvania State (ESPN2): Maryland may represent the best offense Penn State has seen all year, which isn’t really saying much, which I think leads to their inflated defensive numbers.
  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (FS1): Oklahoma’s season is lessened by losing two out of their last three, but not so much so that they’re suddenly vulnerable to Iowa State or anything.
  • Duke @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU): Eight plays, five fumbles lost. I’ve made posts about luck on the football field in the past, but that one really takes the cake. I’ll talk about it more when I talk about Tech, though. For now, with the way Duke is playing I’m just not sure who they’re going to lose to the rest of the season. There’s nothing about Pitt that makes me think they’ll take it to Duke.
  • East Carolina @ Temple (ESPNEWS): East Carolina has taken care of business in the American so far, and while this isn’t the completely awful version of Temple from, well, most of their history, I don’t think they’ll present much of a challenge for ECU.
  • Central Florida @ Connecticut (CBSS): A team that could challenge ECU, maybe, is Central Florida, who should no issues dispatching a terrible UConn. I mean, seriously: UConn averages 14 points a game.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (SEC): Texas A&M got to the meat of their schedule three weeks ago, and they blinked. Consecutive losses to the Mississippi schools were bad enough, but then there was the complete meltdown against Alabama last week. Suffice it to say, UL-Monroe may be exactly what the Aggies need right now.
  • Northwestern @ Iowa (BTN): Neither of these schools scores a lot of points, and neither allows a lot. It figures to be a tight, low-scoring contest, which I figure probably favors Iowa.


  • North Carolina @ Miami (ACC): UNC squeaked out a win over Virginia last week, while Miami went out and pasted Virginia Tech last Thursday. It’s hard not to favor Miami’s ability to play, like, any defense at all.
  • Boston College @ Virginia Tech (ACC): Even though they’re 4-4, VPI’s bowl streak is in very serious trouble. The only sure win on the schedule looks to be Wake Forest. I don’t think they’ll beat Boston College, but this is probably a better bet for them than UVA or Duke.

1:00: Washington @ Colorado (Pac12): Colorado isn’t as tire fire awful as they were the past few years, but man that defense is still pretty bad, and UDub is a team that is capable of taking advantage.


  • Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech (FSN): The Hilltoppers will throw the ball, but they can’t defend it. Louisiana Tech is moer balanced and looks like a better team overall. It also gives them a chance to get to 5-0 in the Conference USA East division, which would really put them in control.
  • North Carolina State @ Syracuse (ACC/RSN): Boy howdy, FSU sure made NC State look good back in September, didn’t they? Of course, they’ve done that more than a few times in recent weeks, but anyway since then the Wolfpack have lost four straight and it hasn’t really been that close (even if you exclude the 41-0 shallacking from Clemson). But, again, Syracuse may be what they need. The Orange aren’t bad enough that they have no chance, it’s just from where I sit I think that NC State has a better than good chance of winning.


  • Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): Florida fans could use more than a few cocktails at this point, I’d guess. I just don’t see any chance for the Gators in this game whatsoever.
  • Purdue @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): For most of this season, I’ve been stuck thinking that Purdue is as awful as they’ve been in the recent past.
  • Texas Christian @ West Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): This is, admittedly, not a game I had exactly circled on the calendar at the start of the year. I think West Virginia will give them a fight. I think they will give them a hell of a fight. But goodness me TCU’s only loss was to the only team that could keep up with them, and they only lost by three. The rest of the schedule since then is a trail of devastation. I kept checking on their game last week just to see them break 80. It was ridiculous. I like them, even in the craziness of Morgantown. (Probably a good thing for them it’s not at night, though.)
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): So, yeah, five fumbles. One calculation put the odds of forcing five fumbles in thirteen possessions at 0.00245%. Okay, so those are pretty low odds. The odds of recovering all five? Too low to be expressed as a percentage, because it’s about a 1 in 1.3 million chance.
    As for this one, well, it’s hard to say. The defense remains a huge issue, though it’s hard to say how bad they were last week what with the being up 28-0 5 minutes into the game and all. Virginia’s offense doesn’t scare anyone per se, but with how bad our defense is it doesn’t need to be scary. The Cavs are coming off two straight close losses to Duke and Carolina, so they will certainly be in the mood to get back on a winning streak, especially if they want to make a bowl.
  • Brigham Young @ Middle Tennessee State (CBSS): It’s gotten pretty ugly for the Cougars after losing their all-everything quarterback. Is it bad enough to lose to a former Sun Belt team? That’s really the big question here. BYU can still score against not so great defenses, but in their currently four game losing streak they haven’t allowed less than 30 (though one of those went to overtime). Hard to say, but tentatively taking the Stormin’ Mormons.
  • Indiana @ Michigan (BTN): Michigan’s offense is lost, lost in the woods with no compass, and a missing shoe. Their hated athletic director resigned today. A loss to Indiana, which doesn’t seem unlikely, would probably result in Brady Hoke not being too far behind.


  • Kansas @ Baylor (FS1): Man, at least Kansas is as awful as they’ve been for most of the past few years. Makes these things easy. Baylor should be able to score however many they want here.
  • Houston @ South Florida (ESPNEWS): USF isn’t horrible, they’re just not good. I don’t think it’ll be Houston by much, but it’ll be Houston in the end.
  • Kentucky @ Missouri (SEC): Well, both these teams have beaten Vandy and South Carolina, so I think they’re actually kind of even. I’m giving a slight edge to Mizzou, though.

4:30: Southern California @ Washington State (Pac12): I don’t think USC will have a problem, per se, but I think this one might not be as comfortable as you might expect given the records.


  • Auburn @ Mississippi (ESPN): Well, this one isn’t going to end 10-7, I feel pretty good about saying that. Auburn had a bit of trouble with South Carolina last week as well. At any rate, let’s not bury the lede too much more: this one is a fight to stay in national title contention. At Ole Miss, and with that defense, I think the Rebels may gut it out, but I think this one is pretty much even.
  • Old Dominion @ Vanderbilt (ESPNU): Vandy could very well lose this game, I’m not even kidding. I’m not going to predict that, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
  • Colorado State @ San Jose State (CBSS): The Rams are kind of legit, huh? I wonder if they want that game from Boise back in September back. They should be able to handle the Spartans.

7:15: Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): Both these teams can score, but I think Miss State can score better, if that makes any sense. The Bulldogs should remain undefeated.


  • Stanford @ Oregon (FOX): Stanford can’t score, and while they have an awesome defense, Oregon just figures to be too much. I expect this one to be tight at the half and then Oregon gets out to a comfortable lead by the end of the game.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (FS1): Red Raider fans might be wondering if they can get a refund on their recent coach purchase. Alas, they cannot, and so they will charge out again with a less-than advertised offense. The Longhorns’ offense, meanwhile, is nearly nonexistent, and so I think they’ll probably lose. Maybe.
  • Tennessee @ South Carolina (SEC): Tennessee isn’t awful, but they’re still a notch below even this diminished South Carolina side.


  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Landover, MD; CBS): I think Notre Dame will lose at least one other game. This isn’t it. (But enjoy the last of a rare CBS triple-header!)
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ABC): Don’t look, but after an upset of Minnesota last weekend Illinois is 4-4. They might even make a bowl if they’re not careful. The Buckeyes don’t have much to worry about in this one unless they get caught looking forward to Sparty next weekend.
  • Oklahoma St @ Kansas State (ABC): K-State keeps doing it… and they should keep on keeping on until they run into TCU next week.


  • Arizona @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN): Well, one of these teams wasn’t taken to double overtime by Colorado last weekend, so I’m taking Arizona.
  • San Diego State @ Nevada (CBSS): SDSU has one of those “hasn’t played anyone with an offense” sort of high-ranking defenses, so it’s hard to cite that as a factor here. Tentatively going with Nevada in this one.
  • California @ Oregon State (Pac12): Cal might have the most exciting 4-4 record in college football, thanks to an awesome offense and a defense that can keep anyone on it. That said, Oregon State might be not good enough that they can’t score on every drive, which could be fatal.

10:45: Wyoming @ Fresno State (ESPN2): This one might be good for halftime entertainment more than anything else. Just sort of picking Fresno.

11:00: Utah @ Arizona State (FS1): This is very quietly a must-watch game. Arizona State is at the fringes of national talk, but Utah is very quietly 6-1. The numbers make these teams look about even. I’m very slightly going to give the edge to the home team.