Yearly Archives: 2013

This Week in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:30: Buffalo @ Toledo (ESPNU): [Editor’s note: I meant to upload this before Tuesday’s games. Whoops.] Buffalo finds themselves as one of the MAC frontrunners after defeating Ohio last week. They get a plenty game Toledo, though. I’ll take the Rockets due to their defense, home field, and for maximum MAC standings chaos.

Wednesday
8:00:

  • Ball State @ Northern Illinois (ESPN2): The top two teams of the MAC West square off in a contest that will likely decide the division. Expect points to be scored in this game. Lots of points. Expect slightly more to be scored by Northern Illinois.
  • Miami @ Kent State (ESPNU): This game is the complete opposite of the other game, featuring the two bottom two teams from the MAC East. Kent State actually has two wins, so they’re the favorites against the Miamians from Ohio.

Thursday
7:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ESPN): This is always a tough one. Ever since I’ve been in school, this game seems to always be close or a blowout in Clemson’s favor. Of course, past results shouldn’t be influencing the present that much. So thinking about the present, well, it doesn’t look good for Tech.
    This is a game where we will have to play almost mistake-free football to win. We will not be able to turn the ball over 3 times and win (well, unless they do the same). Their offense is every bit as potent as ours (if not more). Their defense is a little worse, but then again, they got blown out by FSU which probably affects things a little bit, and either way it’s not much. Clemson is a very good football team. With the game on the road and at night, history aside, we will need all the help we can get. Hopefully we can avoid hurting ourselves.
  • Marshall @ Tulsa (FS1): In some quarters, it’s Tulsa that’s known as one of the most disappointing teams of 2013. Ranked in the low-100’s in both scoring offense and defense, it’s very difficult to see how they will be able to keep pace with the Thundering Herd.

Friday
9:00: Washington @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN2): U-Dub is enjoying what I would call a perfectly average season. They have beaten all the teams they are supposed to beat, and lost to all the teams they were supposed to lose to. Other than a win over Nebraska, UCLA hasn’t been much better, at least on paper. I would give the Huskies a very real chance in this game, and in fact, I’m calling the upset here.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

Already this week I struck out on both of Thursday’s marquee games. So just keep in mind the below disclaimer.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida State @ Wake Forest (ABC): With a clear path to the national title game, can the Seminoles not trip up against a foe that… well, they’ve tripped up against before? I’m thinking no.
  • Kansas State @ Texas Tech (ABC): TTU was humbled a bit against Oklahoma State last week, but I doubt that K-State will be as effective against them.
  • Auburn @ Tennessee (ESPN): This game was probably a tossup going into the season, but now, well, it seems like an easy Auburn victory.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Minnesota (ESPN2): It feels really weird, but… I’m going with Minnesota in this? I’m so unsure that I put a question mark there.
  • Missouri @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Mizzou continues their march to Atlanta.
  • Texas Christian @ Iowa State (FSN): It’s been a disappointing season for TCU, mainly due to their extremely lackluster offense. But if TCU is lackluster, than Iowa State hasn’t even been acquainted with the very concept for “luster” at any point this season.
  • Western Kentucky @ Army (CBSS): Western Kentucky already beat Navy this year, and Army is much, much worse.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (BTN): There aren’t very many teams Iowa could reasonably expect to outscore entirely with their offense. Purdue, with the second worst scoring offense in the FBS, is one of them.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (SEC/FSN): Is Florida’s offense so inept and wracked by injuries that one could actually pick Vanderbilt as having a shot? The Gator defense is still legit, which means that one could be ugly and low scoring. Which is exactly what the Gators will need to win. I suspect they probably will.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi (SEC): Arkansas is a disaster this season. Maybe John L. wasn’t that bad after all?

12:30: Virginia @ North Carolina (ACC): UNC has been lost on offense for most of this season, but by way of analogy UVA set off without having ever consulted a map in the first place. I like the Tar Heels here.

3:00: Southern California @ California (FOX): The Bears should probably start looking ahead to Colorado.

3:30:

  • Mississippi State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (CBS): Miss State’s offense isn’t quite competent enough to take advantage of TAMU’s awful defense, so the Aggies should be okay here.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ABC): Well, one of these teams actually beat Minnesota. That team was not Nebraska.
  • Brigham Young @ Wisconsin (ESPN): BYU is a pretty good team, and they should make the Badgers sweat, but ultimately the Stormin’ Mormons will probably come up short.
  • Hawaii @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
  • Illinois @ Indiana (BTN): I feel a bit silly for having Illinois make a bowl game a couple weeks ago, but I don’t think it was entirely unreasonable at the time. It probably is now, though. But it is reasonable to have Indiana winning, like, ever? Sure, why not.
  • Syracuse @ Maryland (ACC/FSN): Neither of these teams is good or anything, but Syracuse is awful.

4:00:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Oklahoma State.
  • North Carolina State @ Duke (ESPNU): I almost flippantly did the “team name with no description” thing here, but then I remembered that this is Duke we’re talking about it. But, well, the Blue Devils really are the better team at this point.
  • Arizona State @ Utah (Pac12): Arizona State is a pretty good team, while Utah has mostly wilted in Pac-12 play (except for that increasingly inexplicable win over Stanford).

7:00:

  • Texas @ West Virginia (FOX): Texas has managed to remain relevant, and they should here. Then again, strange things can happen in Morgantown at night.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ESPN): Provided they aren’t completely demoralized by getting blown away by FSU and losing their star running back, Miami still has a certain advantage over Virginia Tech: they have an offense. Of course, that presupposes Good Logan Thomas remains locked in a storage closet somewhere. That said, I’m still going with Miami.
  • Houston @ Central Florida (ESPN2): In my bowl predictions, I have consistently predicted UCF losing this game. Don’t let me down, Cougars.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Louisiana Tech.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): So it turns out that Notre Dame probably isn’t really good or anything, but they should be sufficiently decent enough to handle Pitt.
  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): I know everyone has their hopes for this game, but… statistically Alabama is the superior team. Like, not by a ton, but it’s pretty clear-cut. Perhaps the closest comparison for a team LSU has faced this season is Florida, but only because of their defense. They toughed that one out 17-6, but as we know Florida’s offense is super inept. Now imagine a team that has a better defense than Florida, and oh yeah, a freaking idea of what they’re doing on offense, and you have Alabama. In other words, this Crimson Tide team, as loathe as I am to say it, is really good.
  • Utah State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (ESPNU): Utah State.
  • Colorado @ Washington (Pac12): Washington.

10:00: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (ESPN): Arizona’s been quietly putting together a good season. Sure, they OOC schedule was a joke and they’ve pretty much only beaten the dregs of the Pac-12 (and Utah), but still, 6-2 is pretty good. But if they lose this, they’re not in good shape for the Pac-12. And, well, they’re probably going to lose.

10:15: Fresno State @ Wyoming (ESPN2): The most compelling thing here will probably be how ugly Wyoming’s uniforms are on this evening. And as I’ve said in the past, I mean that in an entirely good way, as making ugly uniforms was always my objective in the Create-A-School feature of the NCAA Football games.

10:30: San Diego State @ San Jose State (CBSS): And here’s your Mountain West nightcap. Two mediocre offense, but two awful defenses, should make for some occasionally fun viewing in this Aztech vs. Spartan battle. I like the Greeks here.

This Week in College Football: Week 11

MACtion and important games special!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

8:00:

  • Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPN2): This game features the top two teams in the MAC East and will likely decide that division. Statistically, the Bobcats are the superior team, but they already have a MAC loss to Central Michigan. I’ll stick with them anyway, mostly due to familiarity and consistent success, I suppose.
  • Bowling Green @ Miami (ESPNU): Bowling Green is okay, by MAC standards. Miami is awful by any standard. I’d suggest the other game.

Wednesday

8:00: Central Michigan @ Ball State (ESPN2): Central Michigan is sitting at 3-5 and trying to stay in the MAC bowl picture. A win here would help tremendously. Unfortunately for them, Ball State is pretty good – I’d even go as far to say that their 24-27 loss to North Texas in September was a fluke, considering the Cardinals have since beaten Virginia, Toledo, and all their other MAC foes so far.

Thursday

7:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (FS1): This the game of the week, other than the other games of the week. But hey, it’s first, and doesn’t that count for something? (Answer: not really.) Anyway, the thing that has struck me about Baylor’s schedule so far this season is that they have played absolutely nobody. Look it up. Their best win is probably West Virginia or Kansas State. I also still think the Sooners are the top team in the Big 12 and that the loss to Texas was a bit of a fluke. Hey, it’s entirely possible the Bears are legit – I bet the offense would be able to put points up against anyone. But they will lose either to these Sooners or to Oklahoma State, I am pretty sure. At the very least I am expecting they face adversity for the first time this season. For the purposes of my bowl predictions, I have pretty much put this down as a win for Oklahoma so far, so that’s what I’m going with. However, I think everyone would agree that Baylor continuing to roll is a much better story.
  • Troy @ Louisiana-Lafayette (ESPNU): The Cajuns have been raging through Sun Belt play so far, and I expect more of the same from Thursday night’s undercard.

9:00: Oregon @ Stanford (ESPN): Explosive Offense Runs Into Team That Actually Plays Defense (part 2). I don’t really expect a repeat of last year’s gritty 17-14 contest that saw the Ducks go to overtime, though. For starters, I don’t think this Stanford defense is as good, and I’m not sure their offense will be able to make enough plays to win. Right now I have this one going Oregon’s way. If it doesn’t, woo boy, the bowl predictions are going to get fun.

Friday

8:30: Louisville @ Connecticut (ESPN2): I like that since their standings page uses winning percentage, UConn is not actually dead least in the AAC standings because they’ve only played 3 conference games so far. Anyway, they’re awful, Louisville rolls.

9:00: Air Force @ New Mexico (ESPNU): This is a matchup of two really bad defenses. Unfortunately, Air Force’s offense is spectacularly inept this year, so it’s doubtful they’ll be able to stop the Lobos from getting their 3rd win on the year.

Bowl Predictions 2013: Week 3

They’re up at the usual place. Some quick hits:

  • I’m predicting a 3-way tie at the top of the AAC, so that’s why I have Louisville as that conference’s team in the BCS.
  • It looks pretty likely right now a non-AQ team will finish in the top 16 and ahead of the champion of the AAC. Fresno State is currently ranked higher, but I think Northern Illinois is a better team. (At the very least, they have a better “marquee” win in Iowa.) I think Fresno has a better chance to lose at some point. NIU’s better schedule may allow them to pass Fresno anyway.
  • Some folks have Notre Dame in the BCS, but I can’t see that happening unless they somehow beat Stanford. Also, I think BYU will give the Irish a hard time. But a 2-loss Notre Dame would probably knock Clemson out of the BCS.
  • As we barrel toward the end of the year, the remaining important matchups start to come to the fore, beginning this week. On Thursday alone we’ll have Oregon vs. Stanford and Oklahoma vs. Baylor, and then LSU vs. Alabama on Saturday.

So, stay tuned. I may even start looking for news next week!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Virginia Tech @ Boston College (ABC/ESPN2): Once again, I’m going to say that the main goal for VPI here is to somehow, some way, figure out how to score 17 points, because that’s probably all they need to win.
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (ABC/ESPN2): Both these teams posses good defenses, but only one has a competent offense. I’ll favor the Badgers in this one.
  • Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): I’m going to lean very slightly toward Penn State in this one, but only very.
  • Army @ Air Force (ESPNU): Air Force looks awful this year. I think I’m actually picking Army.
  • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Well, Ohio State forever reason has trouble against the Boilermakers. They actually lost to Purdue two years ago and needed overtime to win last year. Of course, that doesn’t really have any bearing on this Ohio State team, but then again, on paper the Buckeyes should pretty much always be favored, right?
  • Southern Mississippi @ Marshall (CBSS): I’m sure when this game was picked for TV, no one was really expecting Southern Miss to be the worth team in college football for the second straight year.
  • Mississippi State @ South Carolina (SEC): There’s some good teams in the SEC, and some really bad ones. Miss State somehow is just mediocre. Should be a win for the Gamecocks.

12:30:

  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State, ‘cause why not?
  • Wake Forest @ Syracuse (ACC/FSN): If Wake isn’t too bummed out about their lost opportunity against Miami last week, I think they could actually have some success up in the Carrier Dome.

3:30:

  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): This game is going to be ugly, and probably not even in the entertaining way. At least Florida plays defense. While UGA did play offense earlier this season, last week’s loss to Vandy was mostly due to almost all their skill players other than Aaron Murray being hurt. The Gators could well win this one 6-3 or something.
  • Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (ABC): Very cautiously going with Michigan in this one, but with these teams having wildly opposite strengths I also expect this one to be close. But Michigan can get to 17 or 21 points it’s hard to see how Michigan State is going to score enough to win.
  • Clemson @ Virginia (ESPN): UVA is awful, Clemson rolls.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas State (FS1): Iowa State is also awful, but K-State may not be good enough to completely roll them.
  • West Virginia @ Texas Christian (ESPNU): TCU can’t score, but somewhat surprisingly, neither can WVU. I’m not sure which way to roll on this one, so I’m going with the Horned Frogs.
  • Northwestern @ Nebraska (BTN): Northwestern has lost five straight Big Ten games, and I have a feeling it’s about to be five.
  • Arizona @ California (Pac12): Arizona.

4:00: Hawaii @ Utah State (CBSS): Utah State.

6:00: Auburn @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Arkansas has lost its last two games by a combined score of 104-7. That’s… not good. Meanwhile, Auburn has only scored less than 30 points once this season. This could get ugly.

7:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (FOX): That loss to West Virginia is looking more and more inexplicable as the season goes on, but that said, these teams otherwise appear to be pretty even, so I’ll give an edge to the home team.
  • Tennessee @ Missouri (ESPN): I’ve seen some bad losses in my time, but I’m not sure I’ve ever felt the impact of a gut wrenching loss for a team that isn’t my own than I did when I saw that ball clang off the uprights. That said, I don’t expect the transitive property to hold up (South Carolina lost to Tennessee two weeks ago), as Mizzou is just categorically better than the Volunteers.
  • Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): Last week’s win in Charlottesville may be the ugliest win I’ve ever seen by a Georgia Tech team. I’m still not sure how you can turn the ball over 5 times and escape with a victory, but we managed. So now our attentions turn to Pitt.
    So last weekend, Pitt lost at Navy. So there’s a couple ways this can go, and if you pay attention to GT sports, you can probably already guess the narratives. Quickly, they are something along these lines. Since Pitt played Navy last weekend, they’ve had an extra week to practice against our offense, and especially at full-speed. The retort is, of course, that hopefully our guys are a little more athletic and skilled than Navy’s. And, of course, we do have some shotgun/pistol looks in our pocket as well.
    Pitt is pretty middle-of-the-road statistically, though maybe slightly better than their 4-3 record. They’re definitely a better team than Virginia, and I can guarantee that we will not beat them if we turn the ball over five times again.

7:30: Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (FS1): So far, Colorado has not scored more than 20 or given up less than 40 in their Pac-12 games. This is not what one would call a formula for success, and indeed, success will likely remain elusive against the Bruins.

8:00:

  • Miami @ Florida State (ABC): I figure the line for this game is mostly due to FSU’s pummeling of Clemson and Miami barely beating Wake Forest last weekend. I understand that, okay? And I still think FSU is going to win. But probably not by 3+ touchdowns.
  • Boise State @ Colorado State (CBSS): It’s definitely a down year for the Broncos, but they should still be good enough to win this one.

9:00: Texas-El Paso @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN2): Oh, what I would give to have this game be at UTEP. Alas, in the safe confines of Kyle Stadium even TAMU’s awful defense should be able to contain the 1-6 Miners. (Also, UTEP’s defense is actually worse than TAMU’s, so… yeah.)

10:30: Nevada @ Fresno State (ESPNU): Nevada just isn’t that good this year, unfortunately. They probably won’t provide that much of an impediment to Fresno’s BCS quest.