Yearly Archives: 2011

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

Before we begin: what the heck, Oklahoma State? With that out of the way…

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ESPN): This could well be the most interesting game of the weekend, in terms of competitiveness. I think, however, Michigan’s ability to play some semblance of a defense (imagine saying that any of the past three years) will allow them to prevail in the end.
  • Wisconsin @ Illinois (ESPN2): Dusting themselves off after two straight losses knocked them out of the nation title picture, the Badgers have got their offense rolling again. Meanwhile, Ron Zook is walking out of press conferences. I like the Badgers.
  • Kansas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): If there’s one team TAMU probably won’t blow a double-digit second half lead to, it’s Kansas.
  • Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Speaking of walking out of press conferences, that’s what I’m tempting to do anytime anyone asks me to make sense of the Big East. I’ll take the Bearcats out of a sense of hope and desperation.
  • Indiana @ Michigan State (BTN): Three low-level Big Ten games! Sparty looks to preserve its lead in the Legends division, which they should do easily.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): Minnesota’s shown flashes of maybe not being a complete doormat these last few weeks, but Northwestern should still win in the end.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (BTN): Outside of their shocking win over Ohio State, Purdue hasn’t really shown they can score any points. Iowa doesn’t score a lot but it should be enough.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): Will the dogs suffer a letdown against the SEC’s second worst team? No, probably not. Unfortunately.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Duke (ACC): Well, what can I say about the Virginia Tech game that hasn’t been said? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
This will be the 79th meeting of the Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils. Duke is actually Tech’s third most-often played team, behind Auburn (92 games) and Georgia (105). The only other teams Tech has met even more than 50 times are Clemson (76) and Alabama (52). Somewhat surprisingly, the Jackets still sport a better winning percentage against Clemson (65.8%) than Duke (60.9%). However, while the Clemson series has been mostly even since the early 70’s, the Duke series has not been. After Georgia Tech’s low-point in the 70’s and early-80’s, the series has been all Tech – Duke has only won twice since 1990.
Duke is not the ACC’s most awful team this year – that honor lies with Boston College. However, that doesn’t mean the Jackets can overlook them. One need look no further than Ames, Iowa after the events of last night to remember that anything can happen on any day in college football. Virginia Tech came out against the Blue Devils and, were it not for 3 missed FGs, could have nearly lost the game. It will be critical for Tech to be on their game and press their advantage against one of the few teams they will are physically superior than. Other than special teams, Tech’s Achilles’s heel this year has been pass defense. After a heroic effort in the Clemson game, Virginia Tech continually got behind our secondary and was able to stretch the defense. Duke is 27th in the country in passing yards, which is partially due to necessity. However, Sean Renfree is a decent quarterback who can burn us pretty easily if the secondary allows him to.

3:00:

  • Tulsa @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): UTEP is up to its old tricks again – lose to Rice one week, beat East Carolina the next. That said, Tulsa should have little trouble dissecting them.
  • Maryland @ Wake Forest (ACC/FSN): I think we can pretty safely call Maryland awful at this point. Wake Forest should get their sixth win here.
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (CBS): Miss State should be able to score, but they just… can’t. One of my favorite football writers said on Twitter last weekend that he thinks Dan Mullen tries to get too “cute” with the Urban Meyer-style spread offense, and I’m inclined to agree. Arkansas, meanwhile, fields one of the few actual offenses in the SEC and should win easily as long as they’re not looking forward their huge showdown with LSU next Friday.
  • Texas Tech @ Missouri (ABC): As everyone on the Internet is saying, Texas Tech’s victory over Oklahoma is becoming more and more inexplicable by the week. In their three games since then, they have been outscored 159-33. It wasn’t just Oklahoma State, either – Iowa State put up 41, and Texas’s moribund offense managed 52. Mizzou should win easily, even without Gary Pinkel on the sidelines due to his extremely ill-advised trip to Chili’s.
  • Clemson @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN): What better way to follow up a loss to the worst team in the ACC than by an explicable upset over Clemson? Yeah.. I’m not seeing it either. Though after Wake the Tigers are almost just begging to lose again, aren’t they?
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): Okay yes Ohio State may have just lost to Purdue but still it’s hard to imagine Penn State winning any more games this year.
  • Southern Methodist @ Houston (FSN): Well, based on the number of times I’ve said “win easily” so far it’s not hard to see why Gameday decided to make its annual mid-major trip out to Houston this weekend. And that was before Houston because the last remaining undefeated mid-major last weekend, and before the events last night that made them one of the only two remaining undefeated teams in the country. Meanwhile, SMU has lost to the other two decent C-USA teams it has played by pretty wide margins and just lost to Navy last week. So… this may end up being a blowout too.
  • Miami @ South Florida (ESPNU): One of these schools is actually in a geographic region I would call “south Florida” and it’s not the one named “South Florida”. With that out of the way, USF did nothing between its upset of Notre Dame the first weekend of the year and beating Syracuse last weekend. I would expect them to get right back on the losing side of the ledger in this one, though.
  • Colorado State @ Texas Christian (Versus): The Missed Field Goal Heard ‘Round College football resonated and wide (… right) last weekend, but now TCU has to keep up their 5 game winning streak against the less notable segments of the Mountain West in order to clinch their last mid-major conference title.

4:00: Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC): I would say that BC is probably the single worst team on Notre Dame’s schedule this year, and keep in mind this is a schedule that includes Purdue, Navy, and Maryland. They should win easily.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (ESPN): The SEC’s two most colorful coaching personalities clash in what should be a LSU rout, but does Houston Nutt have one last trick up his sleeve? (I.e., “lose to Louisiana Tech and then suspend 3 of your offensive skill position starters for the game and win”.) Well, no, probably not, but if Ole Miss does win the final score will be something like 9-8.
  • Central Florida @ East Carolina (FSN): This is been a down year for both teams, but at least ECU managed to beat UAB. (Yes, I know they just upset Southern Miss.)
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPNU): Let this sink in: Vanderbilt is favored to beat Tennessee. But I still don’t know if I can pick the ‘Dores because the last time Vandy was supposed to win this game they didn’t. My heart says Vandy but my brain says Vols, so let’s go with the latter.

7:30:

  • Virginia @ Florida State (ESPN2): Both of these teams have beaten Miami, which says something but I’m not entirely sure what. Nonetheless, FSU has their offensive mojo back and Virginia is not Wake Forest so the Seminoles should come out with a win.
  • Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): Note: even with a 25-point loss to Utah last weekend, the Bruins still have a shot to win the Pac-12 South. That said, Utah is better than Colorado, I’m pretty sure. This will be a terrible, sloppy, “defensive struggle” sort of a game but UCLA should still win and Rick Neuheisel will probably still get fired.

 8:00:

  • Southern California @ Oregon (ABC): Oregon established pretty firmly last weekend that they are, in fact, still the team to beat in the Pac-12. USC has the talent to compete, but not the depth to stay with the Ducks. Expect the usual Oregon blueprint against good teams: a close first half followed by the Ducks simply wearing out the opposing defenses in the second half.
  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (ABC): Welcome back to the BCS title hunt, Sooners! Okay, yes, now beating Oklahoma State won’t have the cachet it used to. Anyway, Baylor’s all-everything QB Robert Griffin III will try his best to singlehandedly keep the Bears in this one but I just don’t see how it can be enough against the Sooners.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FX): Okay yes they didn’t play in 2008 and 2009 but Kansas State has won three straight against Texas. I’m not sure if it’s an upset at this point, but K-State has shown they can at least run with TAMU and Oklahoma State, and unlike Texas, those teams actually can play offense! So I’m taking the Wildcats.
  • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): Boise once again finds itself picking up the pieces after a game gone horribly wrong, made even more painful by Oklahoma State’s loss last night. San Diego State is not exactly chopped liver, but this is not last year’s fiesty version either. I suspect the Broncos are once again the sort of team that picks up the pieces by laying waste to their next opponent, so I’ll take them here.

10:15:

  • California @ Stanford (ESPN): The Big Game! Stanford Stadium is about 5 miles from my apartment out here, but by the time you read this I’ll be more like 2000 miles away. Anyway, speaking of picking up the pieces from a bad loss, you really have to like Andrew Luck and company in this one, right?
  • New Mexico State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): I’ll confess I don’t know that much about BYU, but they don’t have one of the worst defense in the country, in stark contrast to Fresno State will let these Aggies put up 48 last weekend. So, yeah, I’ll the Stormin’ Mormons here.

And that’s that. Bowl predictions may be delayed this weekend due to chaos. 

    Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 5

    Here you go. This’ll be another quick post, though.

    Also, please appreciate I spent a lot of time fixing the HTML for the predictions page so the file is about half the size of what it’s been in the past, which means you can now load the predictions even more quickly regardless of what platform you use to view them.

    • BCS: I expected Stanford to lose, so I sort have been accounting for that. However, I didn’t really expect Boise to blow their shot again, so mid-major autobid now falls to Case Keenum and Co. in Houston. If Oklahoma State or, God forbid, LSU lose? Then I have no idea. I really don’t want to see a rematch, and personally if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State they may well be the best one loss team in the land – especially as it becomes easier to chalk up their loss to TTU as a complete and utter fluke.
    • ACC: Things again went pretty much according to plan here, and I still have a surplus of ACC teams.
    • Big East: There is no plan here. The Big East is the opposite of a plan. Much like matter and anti-matter, if the Big East and Plans ever met it they would cancel each other out and likely result in a serious explosion.
    • Big Ten: I guess Wisconsin will win? Who knows? Anyway this is pretty much a one-bid league this year. I actually have both Purdue and Northwestern making bowl games, but I had to put them in as at-larges for bowls that can’t fill their slots.
    • Big 12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely both in if everything goes according to plan. But in what order?
    • Pac-12: I have both Oregon and Stanford in, as this seems like it’ll be an especially dire year for the BCS at-large pool. The Pac-12 bowl teams pool is shallow as well, but it would be interesting to see how bad UCLA would lose to TCU.
    • SEC: I went ahead and put Vandy up to the vaunted 6-6 mark, but I don’t think even the hometown Music City Bowl would take them over the fervent fans of Miss State.
    • Everyone else: Notre Dame seems to me to be on a collision course to get a pretty good “name” game in the Champs Sports Bowl. If you’re wondering about Boise, they could still get in, but they need TCU to lose twice because according to the rules you need to be a conference champ to get in as an at-large mid-major team. (It’s right there on the page, even!)

    This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Noon:

    • Florida @ South Carolina (CBS): Why is this game on CBS? Who knows! Suffice it to say, if this game ends up 9-6 it will be a pretty safe bet to chalk it up to offensive ineptitude than to defense. Florida has speed but no apparent idea of how to use it, while South Carolina is decimated by injuries, suspensions, and dismissals. In the end, though, I still expect the Gamecocks to prevail.
    • Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (ABC): I think we pretty thoroughly know the answer to which Texas Tech team showed up against Oklahoma: not the one that has showed up for their other 8 games. Cowboys roll.
    • West Virginia @ Cincinnati (ABC): Flip a coin. The coin has about as much of an idea about the Big East as I do at this point. I’ll take Cincy for the sake of my bowl predictions.
    • Texas @ Missouri (FX): I don’t think either TAMU or Mizzoui’s Big 12 finales are going quite how they expected. Texas should get one last parting shot.
    • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): All I can say about this is: Nebraska has advantages both on the field and off, losses to Northwestern notwithstanding.
    • Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): The Big Ten is almost as befuddling as the Big East. I, uh, I’ll take Sparty here I guess?
    • Marshall @ Tulsa (FSN): Marshall doesn’t score a lot and can give up points in bunches. Not good things against Tulsa.
    • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPNU): This Wake team can bite you, but the Tigers shouldn’t really have any issues.
    • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Buckeyes, I guess.
    • Rice @ Northwestern (BTN): This is not a good Rice team. Northwestern should roll.
    • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): It’s your yearly SEC East slapfight! Both enter at 4-5, but Vandy has generally at least been able to hang with the SEC powers this year while Kentucky has, for the most part, been getting blown out. I like the Dores to get to 5-5.

    12:30: North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): This BC team is just plain hapless. Wolfpack should roll.

    3:00: Duke @ Virginia (ACC/FSN): Virginia Tech can clinch the Coastal now with a UVA loss, but despite me being generally down on UVA I don’t think they’ll lose to Duke.

    3:30:

    • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): I personally thought that putting Texas A&M in the SEC East is really lame. The only reason, it appears to me, that the SEC has “designated rivals” is because Alabama wants to play Tennessee every year and Auburn wants to play UGA every year. Why not just move Auburn and Alabama to the East and scrap the designated rivals thing altogether? It’ll be made up for because then the divisions will cycle through each other more quickly. Anyway, I guess I have to take Georgia here.
    • Miami @ Florida State (ABC/ESPN): Boy, this is sure isn’t what it used to be, eh? FSU should roll.
    • Michigan @ Illinois (ABC/ESPN): Well, Michigan looks to regain its offensive mojo once again. Luckily for them, Illinois has been especially hapless as of late.
    • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Kansas State (ABC): TAMU looks suddenly vulnerable defensively, but I’m not really sure K-State has the offensive talent to take advantage. Nonetheless, TAMU’s second half woes are well documented at this point and so only with some hesitation I’m picking them.
    • Navy @ Southern Methodist (FSN): SMU has looked pretty good against the teams they’ve been expected to beat whilst getting clobbered by the powers of Conference USA. Meanwhile, Navy just hasn’t been, well, good this year at all. I like the Mustangs here.
    • Texas Christian @ Boise State (Versus): It’s kind of funny that the Mountain West bent over backward to move this game from Fort Worth to Boise in response to TCU’s then-move to the Big East. In the meantime, Boise is now probably going to move to the Big East, so in the end it sort really didn’t matter. Either way, I don’t really like TCU this year at all – so I’ll take Boise to continue their run.
    • Rutgers vs. Army (@New York, NY; CBSS): Because the world needs more football games at baseball stadiums! Rutger’s never ending quest to become New York City’s college football team continues as they should probably win easily over Army.
    • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (BTN): Minnesota’s shown some signs of life over the past couple of weeks, but I can’t really comprehend how they can beat Wisconsin.

    3:45: Washington @ Southern California (FX): U-dub put forth a valiant effort against Oregon last weekend. Will a valiant effort be enough against USC, though? I’m not really sure. I like the Trojans a lot at this point, though their lack of depth is always a concern.

    6:00: Tennessee @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Tennessee has no offense. Like, I think they just let the other team play offense the whole time and hope to run back punt returns and interceptions. This is not a good recipe against what looks like the most competent offense in the SEC.

    7:00: Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): I think LSU’s going to win this one. I know I’m going out on a limb here, but…

    7:30:

    • Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss might not win this one. After all, we need Houston Nutt’s last ride around the SEC to be as hilarious as possible, and so they need to be as bad as possible when they play LSU next weekend. And, with losses to Miss State and Southern Miss already, can LaTech afford to go 0-3 against the state of Mississippi? I think not. Bulldogs maybe pull off the upset. Probably. Well, perhaps.
    • Maryland vs. Notre Dame (@Landover, MD; NBC): I meant to look up if this was really a neutral site game or just a Maryland home game played over in Landover. Either way, I like the Irish here as Randy Esdall’s dismantling effort continues. (I assume that’s the oppose of a rebuilding effort, right?)

    7:45: Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Yeah… yeah… Alabama will rain fire down upon the Bulldogs on this night, and blow them out… 24-3.

    8:00:

    • Oregon @ Stanford (ABC): Okay, here’s the main event folks. And, frankly, all season I’ve liked the Ducks better. Stanford’s year should have been last year, when they were more well-rounded on both sides of the ball. Stanford has been challenged really only once all year, when they needed Andrew Luck to just about singlehandedly beat USC. Now, if you had to pick a guy who do that for you, you could could certainly do worse than Andrew Luck. But I just don’t think it will be enough against Oregon.
    • Central Florida @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): UCF picked a good week to have a good old-fashioned recruiting scandal. Regardless, USM should continue their march to the C-USA title game.

    9:15: Idaho @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Idaho is not very good and stuff. The BYU team isn’t exactly awe-inspiring or anything but they should still win easily.

    10:15: Hawaii @ Nevada (ESPNU): Now here’s the WAC-tion you want right here. Expect points, and lots of them, but also expect the Wolfpack to emerge victorious at the end.

    10:30: Arizona State @ Washington State (Versus): Arizona State losing to UCLA may be one of the more inexplicable upsets of the year. Will Sun Devils get upset again in Pullman? Well, probably not.

    This Week in College Football: Week 11

    A special edition, looking at the weekday games for this week.

    As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

    Tuesday
    (Just pretend this was posted on time for these games.)
    8:00:

    • Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green (ESPN2): The weather may be getting colder, but rest assured the MACtion is just heating up. Both of the teams involved last week’s torrid 63-60 affair return tonight, but this time with different partners. However, Bowling Green has not displayed the same proficiency in the offensive arts as NIU has, which is likely bad news for the home team here.
    • Western Michigan @ Toledo (ESPNU): Now, if you’re looking for a repeat of last week’s game then this is the place to be, most likely. That said, the Rockets looked pretty unstoppable in the MAC until they ran into NIU, so I’ll go with them.

    Wednesday
    8:00: Miami @ Temple (ESPN): The MACtion isn’t just confined to Tuesday nights, though. Oh no. Miami is dead last in the country in rushing, but rest assured they can throw it around, though against the only solid MAC team they’ve played (Toledo) they lost 49-28. Temple is the opposite – yes, they’ve lost to Toledo as well, but they are 8th in the country in rushing but 115th in passing. Ohio exploded for an unheard of 35 points against the Owls last weekend, so we may be in for more scoring than Temple’s stingy 12.8 points allowed per game may make you think. I still like the Owls though.

    Thursday
    7:30: Ohio @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Remember, Central Michigan is the bad directional Michigan this year. Bobcats should roll.

    8:00:

    • Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): [N.B.: “Tech” refers to Georgia Tech here. -ed] Every year there’s been a Coastal Division of the ACC, there’s been this game. And the winner of this game has been the Coastal Division champ. Twice has the good Tech won this one. The 2006 game I remember because my old cell phone still has a text message from my brother on September 30, 2006 on it: “Omg 21-0 gt” – I got said text because I was out of town that Saturday and wasn’t able to watch but the last 10 minutes or so of the game.
      The marbles are once again on the line with those one – though it should be noted due to GT’s loss to Virginia that Tech cannot clinch without another Virginia loss. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, which may well not be what Tech needed because the worst thing that happened in that Clemson game was halftime. (Well, other than the offsides non-call.)
      In way, these teams could not be farther apart going into the game, in terms of the game they played going into this. Georgia Tech played their best game since 2009 against Clemson, dominating in all phases in the game. VPI meanwhile struggled to put points on the board against Duke. The Blue Devils missed three FGs as well, any two of which could’ve allowed them to pull off the upset.
      Not that it matters, of course. Going into a Thursday night game in Atlanta is, objectively, much more exciting than going into Wallace Wade Stadium at any time. Add in the ticket to a rematch against Clemson being on the line and that puts together a recipe for a huge game. Who will win? I don’t know. I like our chances if we play like we did against Clemson, but the odds us playing as good as we did against the Tigers and VPI playing as bad as they did against the Blue Devils is low, as I just said.
      It will come down to the usual things: defense and special teams. Special teams have been a tremendous concern for Georgia Tech this year, while it looks like Beamerball has been back in full force in Blacksburg. Even if Tech managers to avoid punting or kicking field goals (the ideal scenario), kickoff coverage has still been horrendous outside the Clemson game. The Georgia Tech defense, meanwhile, played its best game since John Tenuta was let go after 2007. They were able to confuse Tajh Boyd with a variety of zone and corner blitzes, which worked mainly because the secondary (and Jamea Thomas especially) played the games of their lives out on the Isles of Man Coverage. It feels funny to type this when you consider that Clemson still ran up nearly 400 yards of offense, but outside of one Sammy Watkins TD catch their offense was kept in check. (17 points was, and probably will remain, Clemson’s lowest point total of the season.) The other key: they weren’t on the field that much. The GT offense held on the to the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game, including the soul-sucking nine minute drive in the fourth quarter that saw Clemson get the ball back down two scores with two minutes to go.
      Suffice it to say, I think the Jackets will need similar heroics to prevail over the Hokies.
    • Houston @ Tulane (CBSS): Houston should be able to name its own score against the hapless Green Wave.

    Friday
    8:00: South Florida @ Syracuse (ESPN2): USF has had a very symmetric season, but not in a good way: they started off with four straight (including an increasingly more inexplicably upset of Notre Dame) and now have dropped four straight. Inexplicable is a pretty excellent word to describe the Big East as a whole, though. The Orange have dropped two straight after their dominating upset over West Virginia and sits at the precipice of bowl eligibility. They’ll probably get it, but the problem is when? I say here, most likely, because I’ve really given up on trying to predict anything about the Big East – the ‘Cuse could lose this one and go knock off Cincinnati next week, which, let’s face it, is probably the most likely scenario.

    Enjoy the rest of your week, and see if you can’t catch the tail end of the Toledo-WMU game. That looks like a good one. Otherwise, I’ll be back with Saturday’s games sometime Friday or Saturday.

    Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 4

    When will I ever learn that “it’ll probably be easier this week” is pretty much a surefire way to make sure that isn’t the case?

    Let’s get down to business and see why. You can follow along with the picks in their usual place.

    BCS
    The BCS was the single hardest thing to pick this week. With the chaos in the Big Ten, figuring out the last team into the BCS picture was extremely difficult. Here’s why.

    Currently, I still have LSU and Oklahoma State running the table. I am not entirely convinced about the latter but trying to figure out which 1-loss team is most worthy, or if Boise State is, is even more difficult to figure out. (If Stanford beats Oregon this weekend, that will make my job easier.) I immediately slot Alabama into LSU’s vacated Sugar Bowl spot but even figuring out who will replace Oklahoma State in the Fiesta is difficult. I have the following automatic bids: LSU (BCS #1), Oklahoma State (BCS #2), Boise State (MWC champion ranked in top 12), Oregon (Pac-12 champ), Wisconsin (Big Ten champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Cincinnati (Big East champ). This accounts for 7 of the 10 available BCS bids. Currently, I only have 8 undefeated or 1-loss teams (not counting Houston), and the only two I didn’t mention above are Alabama and Stanford. Due to the Andrew Luck effect, I assume Stanford will be a desirable at-large team and thus will get Oklahoma State’s Fiesta Bowl bid.

    Now, at this point the only remaining bids are the 3 at-large bids in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange bowls. The selections go in that order. There are two remaining automatic qualifiers: Boise State and Cincinnati. This means that there will be a 2-loss team somewhere in the BCS. But who? This could affect who the bowl picks. And this is where the Big Ten shenanigans come in.

    With Nebraska’s shocking upset to Northwestern, this means there will be no Big Ten team with less than two losses at the end of the year (I think it’s safe to assume Penn State will lose one of their remaining games (I have them losing two more, actually)). This also means Nebraska has two conference losses. Michigan State only has one conference loss, and I don’t think they will lose again this year. So they will win the Legends division, where I have them losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. That would give Michigan State three losses. Whereas Nebraska – having continued winning through the end of the season – should be able to rise back up into the top 14 of the BCS.

    So, yeah, it’s probably unfair, but them’s the breaks. Thanks to BCS hot-potato and backroom dealing, I went ahead and figured the Fiesta would suck it up and take Boise, setting up a game that sounds epic, at least in name: Alabama versus Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl. (I wasn’t surprised to find the two schools had met in the Sugar Bowl before – in 1967. Unfortunately, it apparently wasn’t much of a classic as the Tide won 34-7.)

    In any BCS scenario, I figure the odds of the Orange avoiding an ACC-Big East matchup are slim.

    ACC
    The only ACC team that can possibly have only 1-loss is the ACC champ. I currently have this team as Clemson.

    Thanks to unexpectedly strong seasons from Wake Forest, NC State, and Virginia the ACC should fill out its primary bowl obligations this year and then some. The first slots after the BCS are easy: Virginia Tech to the Chick-fil-a and Florida State to the Champs Sports bowl (setting up a good “name” matchup if the Champs uses their option to select Notre Dame). This brings us to the Sun Bowl. According to the ACC selection rules, the Sun can choose from the following: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, and Miami. Miami went to the Sun Bowl last year so I figure they’re out. I don’t Virginia or Wake are known for traveling terribly well, and so I’ve put GT there. This allows the rest of the dominoes to fall into place. I’ve put NC State into the Belk Bowl (formerly the Car Care Bowl), followed by Miami to the Music City and Virginia to the Independence. Wake Forest finally gets picked for the Military Bowl, mostly because ACC rules prevent a 3-5 UNC from being picked above them. This allows North Carolina to be shipped out to the Kraft Fights Hunger Bowl in San Fransisco, fulfilling the ACC option as a backup for the Pac-12 or Army.

    Big East
    If it seems like the Big East selections were drawn out of a hat, well, they very well could have been. For the sake of my sanity, I picked Cincy to run the table followed by Louisville, WVU, and Pitt. Oy. They will have an extra team, though, since I have Syracuse getting 6-6, so I put them in the Military Bowl slot the Big 12 won’t come anywhere close to filling.

    Big 12
    The Big 12 is pretty much the two Oklahoma schools and everyone else. Texas seems to have gotten its act together so I slotted them into the Cotton. Everything else straightforward, though Baylor kind of gets the shaft. If Iowa State or Texas Tech and manage to win another game that would really be a boon for the conference but considering their schedules I don’t see it happening.

    Big Ten
    The Big Ten is a mess right now. I talked about the Nebraska thing above, and that was mostly just me going “well, someone has to have a 2-bid conference that probably doesn’t deserve it” and so I figured a 2-loss team from the Big Ten would fit the bill. Michigan State will probably still land in the Capital One Bowl, so that’s not a huge deal. I have both Michigan and Penn State going 9-3, with the Outback bid going to the Fightin’ Paternos and shipping Michigan off to Arizona. The rest of the slate is pretty “meh” and straightforward, though even after four weeks it still feels weird projecting Ohio State into second-tier bowl games.

    Pac-12
    Boy does this conference miss USC being eligible or what? Speaking of crazy upsets, Northwestern over Nebraska was shocking, yes, but not Earth-shaking (well, metaphorically considering recent events in Oklahoma). UCLA over Arizona State, though? Now there’s an upset. Consider this: the team that got pantsed by Arizona only a few Thursdays ago and had all but officially announced they’d fired the head coach is now in a 3-way tie for the Pac-12 South lead. Now, I figure Arizona State will still win the division in the end, but still. Also, don’t look but Utah should get to 6-6 pretty easily over the next few weeks, if not 7-5. I tried to resist it, but it was just too easy match them against TCU in the Las Vegas Bowl if for no other reason than to get Utah partisans to say, “wait, we joined a BCS conference and we still ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl… and playing one of our former MWC rivals?” I had some hesitation though because that meant Cal ended up in the Fights Hunger Bowl, which is being played in the stadium that’s serving as their home field this year. Well, if nothing else I guess they’ll be used to it.

    SEC
    SEC partisans will no doubt howl about the 2-team limit for BCS participation, because if Arkansas’s only losses are to LSU and Alabama then they should easily stay in the BCS top 14. Nonetheless, the BCS slate was pretty straightforward, though I am hoping I’m wrong and Vandy gets up to 6-6.

    Everyone else
    The Sun Belt and MAC will benefit, as usual, from having surplus eligible teams. I still have Western Kentucky on track to make their first ever bowl game. Overall, though, there’s nothing Earthshattering going on here other than an undefeated Houston being stuck in the Liberty Bowl, but at least that makes it a good bet for Conference USA to make it two straight in the game. This week not having enough teams does not appear to be a concern, and from what I remember while doing the predictions, it appears we’ll be okay this year. (Though honestly one of my favorite bowl system doomsday scenarios that no one talks about is the specter of a team with a losing record making it into a bowl game.)

    Anyway, next week probably be just as difficult and confusing, though which way it ultimately goes may be decided just up the road from me here in California. Until then…