Monthly Archives: November 2011

This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
7:00: Miami @ Ohio (ESPN2): Ohio has already sealed up the MAC East, but nonetheless shouldn’t overlook their in-state rivals in Miami. I like the Bobcats here.

Thursday
8:00: Texas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN): I’m not sure what Texas fans were expecting this year, though they have probably found this season frustrating nonetheless. Texas A&M fans, though, well, suffice it to say I’m not sure they expected to lose 2 games, much less 5. The culprit has been defense, especially their well-publicized issues holding a double-digit lead in the the second halves of games. That said, can the Longhorns even generate enough points to have a second half lead, much less a double-digit one? In their last two games against Mizzou and Kansas State Texas has only scored 18 points. Scoring has not been the issue for the Aggies. I wasn’t sure about this earlier, but now I just don’t know how Texas is going to score enough points to win this game.

Friday
11:00:

  • Louisville @ South Florida (ESPN2): The Big East will trend toward any scenario that makes there conference tiebreaker more complicated, so Louisville basically guaranteed to win this game.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): Toledo needs a EMU victory here to have a shot at the MAC West, but I don’t think they’re going to get it.

Noon:

  • Iowa @ Nebraska (ABC): ALL HAIL THE CORN BOWL. No, really. That said, I think the Huskers can get back on track in the game and earn the world’s first trophy that features REAL CORN. (Just don’t tell Artur Boruc.)
  • Houston @ Tulsa (FSN): Tulsa may be the most formidable obstacle Houston has played to date, if for no other reason than because they’re the first team they’ve played that can keep up with them on offense. Of course, with a BCS now on the line for the Cougars, there’s just that much added pressure. I still like them to prevail, but this will be their stiffest test of the year, I think.

2:30: Arkansas @ Louisiana State (CBS): I’ve been saying this all year: the Razorbacks feature probably the only truly competent offense in the SEC. No other team in the SEC has been able to put up 30 as often against quality opponents. The problem is, the best team they’ve played so far, Alabama, held them to just 14. LSU’s defense is as good as Bama’s if not better. The question for LSU is, of course, the offense. They’ve been more potent this year, but the whole operation feels as though it’s just a few Jordan Jefferson fumbles or Jarret Lee interceptions away from total disaster. Do I think this disaster will occur in Baton Rouge Friday afternoon? No, probably not. This game is usually pretty great though, and comes highly recommended from me.

3:30:

  • Boston College @ Miami (ABC): Speaking of total disasters, if the Miami locker room is really disappointed about the Canes not going to a bowl game that’s exactly what this could turn into. Then again, I’m not convinced BC could score enough points to win this game even Miami didn’t even come out on defense at all.
  • Colorado @ Utah (FSN): Fun fact: Utah now has the inside track to win the Pac-12 South. Yeah. They should be able to beat a Colorado team that just lost 45-6 to UCLA.

7:00:

  • Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (ESPN): It’s the Backyard Brawl! And maybe for the last time in awhile. Against, for maximum Big East chaos I think WVU needs to win for the 4-way tie to be preserved, so that’s probably what will happen.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Central Florida (CBSS): I have UTEP winning for the purposes of my bowl predictions, so, yeah, I guess I’ll take the Miners here.

10:15: California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Cal has been awful on the road this year, with their only such win a 36-33 overtime win against a Colorado team that is usually paired with adjectives like “hapless”. Therefore, I have to go with the increasingly, erm, hapless Sun Devils here.

Have a good Turkey Day and weekend predictions will go up on Friday!

Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 6

Chaos reigned supreme last weekend. Now we stare down the barrel as someone will most likely play someone they already played in the BCS Championship Game. Remember folks, every game counts, unless it doesn’t.

I’m writing this as I go. Since this is an electronic document I could, of course, actually just move things around to their customary order first, but that would be too easy. So let’s start off with the little guys. The final predictions will be up at their usual place.

Mid-majors
The first announcements of the year that I saw where that UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State have accepted bids to the New Orleans and godaddy.com bowls, respectively. I also have FIU and Western Kentucky qualifying as well.

BYU also formally accepted its bid to the Armed Forces Bowl.

Hawaii could’ve gained eligibility but only managed to put up 21 points against one of the worse defenses in college football. Since they play 13 games, they must have a winning record, and so at 5-6 now they will need to beat Tulane (extremely doable) and BYU. While they can beat BYU, I don’t think they will. Elsewhere in the WAC, Nevada lost a pivotal home matchup to Louisiana Tech, but that may not really matter that much as the WAC moves teams around based on what they think will work best for their games. Therefore, I still sent Nevada to the poinsettia, LaTech to Boise, and 6-6 Utah State to Hawaii.

In the MAC, I don’t see Kent State or Eastern Michigan winning their final games to get eligible. Ohio has already clinched the MAC East, and I think they will go ahead and play Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. The MAC champion goes to the godaddy.com bowl, but I always figure it’s best for a MAC team to actually play in the Midwest. Nonetheless, I’m guessing Ohio will go down to Mobile, NIU will go to Detroit, and I’ll pick Toledo to go out to Boise. That leaves Temple, Ball State, and Western Michigan as eagerly anticipating at-large bids elsewhere, which should materialize.

The Mountain West is going about how one would expect now that Boise is not going to the BCS. TCU will win the conference even if they sleepwalk through the UNLV game and get themselves an invite to Vegas. Boise will be a slam dunk for the Poinsettia unless an utter collapse elsewhere in the BCS occurs and they get invited as an at-large. Then it comes down to the Independence Bowl, which will likely have to choose between Wyoming and San Diego State. (Air Force should get eligible, but they do need to beat Colorado State Saturday since they played 2 DI-AA teams this year.) I’m just going to go in standings order for now (Wyoming to Independence, SDSU to New Mexico), leaving Air Force as a potential at-large for later.
Since it’s next on my list, the other two service academies will not be bowling this year after Navy’s loss to San Jose State. Notre Dame will be bowling somewhere, and I think it’s likely that somewhere will be the Champs Sports Bowl (otherwise, it will be the Pinstripe Bowl).

In Conference USA, East Carolina and Marshall will play this weekend for a bowl bid, and I like ECU in that game. Southern Mississippi, despite an inexplicable loss to UAB, should clinch the division. Houston will win the conference, of course, and should be in line for a BCS bowl bid, but they will need to beat Tulsa Saturday and USM next week to clinch it for sure. I have UTEP beating UCF Saturday to get to 6-6, giving us 6 total C-USA teams. I like USM to the Liberty bowl, but after that it’s all guesswork. C-USA does not explicitly order their bids, so I look at the payouts, with the TicketCity being the highest, followed by the Hawaii Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl. The New Orleans and Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl sit at the bottom. I’ll go ahead and send Tulsa to the TicketCity and SMU to the hometown Armed Forces (literally, as it’s at their home stadium). That leaves us 2 6-6 teams for 3 bowls. Let’s pencil in ECU to go to Hawaii and UTEP to St. Petersburg, leaving us needing another team in New Orleans.

BCS
A LSU-Alabama rematch seems nearly inevitable at this point, unless all hell breaks even more loose this weekend. I highly dislike the idea of the rematch, after all, the college football is regular seasons is so short it’s not really interesting for teams to play each other twice. This year, more than ever, shows how difficult it is to resolve differences between teams that play vastly different schedules over only 12 games, and why we really need a playoff.

In the Rose, I’ve got ahead and put in Wisconsin and Oregon, though both will need to play conference championship games this year. For the other autobids, I’ve put in Oklahoma State to the Fiesta and Virginia Tech to the Orange.

The Sugar gets the first at-large pick because it lost its autobid champion to the national title game. This is where it gets tough, though. Unless some other weird stuff happens, the SEC can’t get a third team into the BCS, which limits the sort of teams that the Sugar typically picks. I will go ahead and put in Kansas State there, since Oklahoma I have Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State this weekend. (Note that if Bedlam goes the other way around, both teams could still get into the BCS.) Now the Fiesta has a difficult choice, but I think the area’s NFL fans will flock to see Andrew Luck, so I will put Stanford in there. Now we still have to put whoever the heck is going twin the Big East as well as Houston somewhere. Due to proximity, I figure the Sugar will fall on that sword and take the Cougars. I have the Big East finishing in a 4-way tie for first, so I’m taking West Virginia out of that group.

ACC
Even with their inexplicable loss to NC State blowing their BCS hopes, Clemson will likely still be attractive enough for the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Following that, there are 4 ACC teams that will finish 5-3 (most likely): Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. Of this group, FSU is probably the most attractive for the Champs Sports at the ACC #3 slot. Also, if they take Notre Dame is creates a huge “name” matchup. ACC #4 is the Sun Bowl and I think it’s likely GT will end up there. The Belk Bowl will probably use its option to take a 4-4 NC State team over UVA and Wake, but the Music City will probably have no issues with taking UVA. (This is where I had Miami going previously, but with their announcement that they won’t accept a bowl bid it’s sort of a moot point now.) With Carolina at 3-5, this means Wake can’t fall any farther than the Independence Bowl, with the Tar Heels then ending up in DC for the Military Bowl.

Big 12
If Oklahoma doesn’t make a BCS game, they will be a very obvious candidate for the Cotton Bowl. At this point, the Alamo will probably have no choice but to take Baylor. This leaves the rest of the 7-5-/6-6 Big 12 misfits to fight over the remaining bids. I’ll go ahead and put Texas in the Insight Bowl and Missouri in the Holiday, leaving TAMU to the Car Care Bowl (of Texas) and Iowa State to the Pinstripe.

Big East
Again: I really hate picking the Big East. As I said above, I have 4 teams finishing with a 5-2 conference record currently. Since the Champs will probably take Notre Dame, that leaves the next selection to the Belk Bowl, where I guess Cincy has the best chance of going except that they already played NC State this year, so I’ll switch that to Louisville instead. Rutgers likes to think of themselves as “New York City’s college football team” so I’ll send them to the Pinstripe. I’ll pencil Cincy in for the Compass Bowl and so that leaves only Pitt for the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s.

Big Ten
I’m not sure the Big Ten will get two teams into the BCS this year. If they do, it will be Michigan. Since Michigan State will suffer a third loss in the Big Ten title game they won’t likely be eligible, which means Michigan could sneak into the top 14. If they don’t, the Capital One Bowl is good consolation prize, especially after the past few years. Fret not, Sparty supporters, as I just have them landing softly in the Outback Bowl. From there, I’m sure the Insight Bowl would love to match Nebraska back up with Texas, and given the Gator Bowl’s scruples I doubt they would hesitate to take Penn State. Iowa’s large traveling fanbase should be a slam dunk for the Car Care Bowl (of Texas!). Form there, there’s a bevy of unattractive options at 6-6 and 7-5, such as Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois. The only two bowls left are the TicketCity Bowl and Little Ceasar’s Pizza Bowl, so I’ll go ahead and take the biggest “names” for those two, with the Buckeyes going to Dallas and Illinois to Detroit, leaving Purdue and Northwestern to fend for themselves.

Pac-12
With Oregon and Stanford in the BCS and USC ineligible, the picture looks pretty bleak if you’re a bowl affiliated with the Pac-12. I actually have Utah winning the Pac-12 South and getting to an 8-4 record, so you know what, I’ll go ahead and put them in the Alamo. The Holiday is next up. I want to put Washington there but they went to San Diego last year. UCLA is also 5-4 in conference but they’re also actually awful and may fire their coach after the season. I’ll go ahead and put them there though and send Washington El Paso. That leaves me 6-6 Arizona State and Cal, so I’ll send the Sun Devils to Vegas and let the Bears stay in their temporary home for the Fight Hunger Bowl.

SEC
Arkansas is the jewel of the remaining SEC teams and will certainly end up in the Capital One Bowl. Of course, that means we have to figure out someone else to send to the Cotton Bowl. That’ll be between Georgia and South Carolina most likely, so I’ll put UGA in the Outback and send the Gamecocks to Dallas. Auburn’s the only team left at this point with a winning record, so I’ll set up Tigers-Tigers in the Chick-fil-a. The Gator is the next up, and well, it’s so easy to put the Gators there. (Almost… too easy.)  I’ll go ahead and put the Vols in the Music City, leaving us 2 teams and bowls! Memphis is basically the capital of Mississippi anyway, so that makes Miss State a natural fit for the Liberty and relegates Vandy to the Compass.

At-large Resolution
At this point, I still need four teams for the New Mexico, New Orleans, Military, and Fight Hunger Bowls. Northwestern and Purdue will probably go somewhere, so I’ll put Northwestern in the Military and Purdue in the Fight Hunger. I figure 8-4 Temple will get a bid somewhere, so let’s go with the New Orleans Bowl. That leaves us the New Mexico bowl… this is a guess, but I’ll go ahead and put 8-4 FIU there.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

Before we begin: what the heck, Oklahoma State? With that out of the way…

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ESPN): This could well be the most interesting game of the weekend, in terms of competitiveness. I think, however, Michigan’s ability to play some semblance of a defense (imagine saying that any of the past three years) will allow them to prevail in the end.
  • Wisconsin @ Illinois (ESPN2): Dusting themselves off after two straight losses knocked them out of the nation title picture, the Badgers have got their offense rolling again. Meanwhile, Ron Zook is walking out of press conferences. I like the Badgers.
  • Kansas @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (FSN): If there’s one team TAMU probably won’t blow a double-digit second half lead to, it’s Kansas.
  • Cincinnati @ Rutgers (ESPNU): Speaking of walking out of press conferences, that’s what I’m tempting to do anytime anyone asks me to make sense of the Big East. I’ll take the Bearcats out of a sense of hope and desperation.
  • Indiana @ Michigan State (BTN): Three low-level Big Ten games! Sparty looks to preserve its lead in the Legends division, which they should do easily.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): Minnesota’s shown flashes of maybe not being a complete doormat these last few weeks, but Northwestern should still win in the end.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (BTN): Outside of their shocking win over Ohio State, Purdue hasn’t really shown they can score any points. Iowa doesn’t score a lot but it should be enough.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): Will the dogs suffer a letdown against the SEC’s second worst team? No, probably not. Unfortunately.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Duke (ACC): Well, what can I say about the Virginia Tech game that hasn’t been said? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
This will be the 79th meeting of the Yellow Jackets and Blue Devils. Duke is actually Tech’s third most-often played team, behind Auburn (92 games) and Georgia (105). The only other teams Tech has met even more than 50 times are Clemson (76) and Alabama (52). Somewhat surprisingly, the Jackets still sport a better winning percentage against Clemson (65.8%) than Duke (60.9%). However, while the Clemson series has been mostly even since the early 70’s, the Duke series has not been. After Georgia Tech’s low-point in the 70’s and early-80’s, the series has been all Tech – Duke has only won twice since 1990.
Duke is not the ACC’s most awful team this year – that honor lies with Boston College. However, that doesn’t mean the Jackets can overlook them. One need look no further than Ames, Iowa after the events of last night to remember that anything can happen on any day in college football. Virginia Tech came out against the Blue Devils and, were it not for 3 missed FGs, could have nearly lost the game. It will be critical for Tech to be on their game and press their advantage against one of the few teams they will are physically superior than. Other than special teams, Tech’s Achilles’s heel this year has been pass defense. After a heroic effort in the Clemson game, Virginia Tech continually got behind our secondary and was able to stretch the defense. Duke is 27th in the country in passing yards, which is partially due to necessity. However, Sean Renfree is a decent quarterback who can burn us pretty easily if the secondary allows him to.

3:00:

  • Tulsa @ Texas-El Paso (CBSS): UTEP is up to its old tricks again – lose to Rice one week, beat East Carolina the next. That said, Tulsa should have little trouble dissecting them.
  • Maryland @ Wake Forest (ACC/FSN): I think we can pretty safely call Maryland awful at this point. Wake Forest should get their sixth win here.
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (CBS): Miss State should be able to score, but they just… can’t. One of my favorite football writers said on Twitter last weekend that he thinks Dan Mullen tries to get too “cute” with the Urban Meyer-style spread offense, and I’m inclined to agree. Arkansas, meanwhile, fields one of the few actual offenses in the SEC and should win easily as long as they’re not looking forward their huge showdown with LSU next Friday.
  • Texas Tech @ Missouri (ABC): As everyone on the Internet is saying, Texas Tech’s victory over Oklahoma is becoming more and more inexplicable by the week. In their three games since then, they have been outscored 159-33. It wasn’t just Oklahoma State, either – Iowa State put up 41, and Texas’s moribund offense managed 52. Mizzou should win easily, even without Gary Pinkel on the sidelines due to his extremely ill-advised trip to Chili’s.
  • Clemson @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN): What better way to follow up a loss to the worst team in the ACC than by an explicable upset over Clemson? Yeah.. I’m not seeing it either. Though after Wake the Tigers are almost just begging to lose again, aren’t they?
  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN): Okay yes Ohio State may have just lost to Purdue but still it’s hard to imagine Penn State winning any more games this year.
  • Southern Methodist @ Houston (FSN): Well, based on the number of times I’ve said “win easily” so far it’s not hard to see why Gameday decided to make its annual mid-major trip out to Houston this weekend. And that was before Houston because the last remaining undefeated mid-major last weekend, and before the events last night that made them one of the only two remaining undefeated teams in the country. Meanwhile, SMU has lost to the other two decent C-USA teams it has played by pretty wide margins and just lost to Navy last week. So… this may end up being a blowout too.
  • Miami @ South Florida (ESPNU): One of these schools is actually in a geographic region I would call “south Florida” and it’s not the one named “South Florida”. With that out of the way, USF did nothing between its upset of Notre Dame the first weekend of the year and beating Syracuse last weekend. I would expect them to get right back on the losing side of the ledger in this one, though.
  • Colorado State @ Texas Christian (Versus): The Missed Field Goal Heard ‘Round College football resonated and wide (… right) last weekend, but now TCU has to keep up their 5 game winning streak against the less notable segments of the Mountain West in order to clinch their last mid-major conference title.

4:00: Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC): I would say that BC is probably the single worst team on Notre Dame’s schedule this year, and keep in mind this is a schedule that includes Purdue, Navy, and Maryland. They should win easily.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (ESPN): The SEC’s two most colorful coaching personalities clash in what should be a LSU rout, but does Houston Nutt have one last trick up his sleeve? (I.e., “lose to Louisiana Tech and then suspend 3 of your offensive skill position starters for the game and win”.) Well, no, probably not, but if Ole Miss does win the final score will be something like 9-8.
  • Central Florida @ East Carolina (FSN): This is been a down year for both teams, but at least ECU managed to beat UAB. (Yes, I know they just upset Southern Miss.)
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPNU): Let this sink in: Vanderbilt is favored to beat Tennessee. But I still don’t know if I can pick the ‘Dores because the last time Vandy was supposed to win this game they didn’t. My heart says Vandy but my brain says Vols, so let’s go with the latter.

7:30:

  • Virginia @ Florida State (ESPN2): Both of these teams have beaten Miami, which says something but I’m not entirely sure what. Nonetheless, FSU has their offensive mojo back and Virginia is not Wake Forest so the Seminoles should come out with a win.
  • Colorado @ California-Los Angeles (Versus): Note: even with a 25-point loss to Utah last weekend, the Bruins still have a shot to win the Pac-12 South. That said, Utah is better than Colorado, I’m pretty sure. This will be a terrible, sloppy, “defensive struggle” sort of a game but UCLA should still win and Rick Neuheisel will probably still get fired.

 8:00:

  • Southern California @ Oregon (ABC): Oregon established pretty firmly last weekend that they are, in fact, still the team to beat in the Pac-12. USC has the talent to compete, but not the depth to stay with the Ducks. Expect the usual Oregon blueprint against good teams: a close first half followed by the Ducks simply wearing out the opposing defenses in the second half.
  • Oklahoma @ Baylor (ABC): Welcome back to the BCS title hunt, Sooners! Okay, yes, now beating Oklahoma State won’t have the cachet it used to. Anyway, Baylor’s all-everything QB Robert Griffin III will try his best to singlehandedly keep the Bears in this one but I just don’t see how it can be enough against the Sooners.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FX): Okay yes they didn’t play in 2008 and 2009 but Kansas State has won three straight against Texas. I’m not sure if it’s an upset at this point, but K-State has shown they can at least run with TAMU and Oklahoma State, and unlike Texas, those teams actually can play offense! So I’m taking the Wildcats.
  • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): Boise once again finds itself picking up the pieces after a game gone horribly wrong, made even more painful by Oklahoma State’s loss last night. San Diego State is not exactly chopped liver, but this is not last year’s fiesty version either. I suspect the Broncos are once again the sort of team that picks up the pieces by laying waste to their next opponent, so I’ll take them here.

10:15:

  • California @ Stanford (ESPN): The Big Game! Stanford Stadium is about 5 miles from my apartment out here, but by the time you read this I’ll be more like 2000 miles away. Anyway, speaking of picking up the pieces from a bad loss, you really have to like Andrew Luck and company in this one, right?
  • New Mexico State @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): I’ll confess I don’t know that much about BYU, but they don’t have one of the worst defense in the country, in stark contrast to Fresno State will let these Aggies put up 48 last weekend. So, yeah, I’ll the Stormin’ Mormons here.

And that’s that. Bowl predictions may be delayed this weekend due to chaos. 

    Bowl Predictions 2011: Week 5

    Here you go. This’ll be another quick post, though.

    Also, please appreciate I spent a lot of time fixing the HTML for the predictions page so the file is about half the size of what it’s been in the past, which means you can now load the predictions even more quickly regardless of what platform you use to view them.

    • BCS: I expected Stanford to lose, so I sort have been accounting for that. However, I didn’t really expect Boise to blow their shot again, so mid-major autobid now falls to Case Keenum and Co. in Houston. If Oklahoma State or, God forbid, LSU lose? Then I have no idea. I really don’t want to see a rematch, and personally if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State they may well be the best one loss team in the land – especially as it becomes easier to chalk up their loss to TTU as a complete and utter fluke.
    • ACC: Things again went pretty much according to plan here, and I still have a surplus of ACC teams.
    • Big East: There is no plan here. The Big East is the opposite of a plan. Much like matter and anti-matter, if the Big East and Plans ever met it they would cancel each other out and likely result in a serious explosion.
    • Big Ten: I guess Wisconsin will win? Who knows? Anyway this is pretty much a one-bid league this year. I actually have both Purdue and Northwestern making bowl games, but I had to put them in as at-larges for bowls that can’t fill their slots.
    • Big 12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are likely both in if everything goes according to plan. But in what order?
    • Pac-12: I have both Oregon and Stanford in, as this seems like it’ll be an especially dire year for the BCS at-large pool. The Pac-12 bowl teams pool is shallow as well, but it would be interesting to see how bad UCLA would lose to TCU.
    • SEC: I went ahead and put Vandy up to the vaunted 6-6 mark, but I don’t think even the hometown Music City Bowl would take them over the fervent fans of Miss State.
    • Everyone else: Notre Dame seems to me to be on a collision course to get a pretty good “name” game in the Champs Sports Bowl. If you’re wondering about Boise, they could still get in, but they need TCU to lose twice because according to the rules you need to be a conference champ to get in as an at-large mid-major team. (It’s right there on the page, even!)