Yearly Archives: 2009

Bowl Predictions 2009: Week 1

Here they are!

See last year’s first post for my general thought process. (The Big Ten writeup rings especially true, even a year later. Well, except the Ohio State part, I guess.) Basically, I sat down after the standing came out and tried to project the record of every remaining BCS conference team. This will hopefully bear fruit in terms of sensible predictions, because at the least it require to look at everyone’s schedule and make some decisions and prevents me from magicking 6-6 teams from thin air. (I had some help with this, as well. Kudos to my brother and a friend of mine for contributing! Y’all know who you are.)

Right now, for BCS purposes I am projecting Alabama and Texas to win out. I also assumed that the ACC 3-way Circle of Death would continue, and that USC would beat Oregon but that Oregon would recover in time for the final BCS standings. A lot of folks think that the Orange and Fiesta will want to foist Boise or TCU upon the Sugar, but I’m not so sure. Especially with the Fiesta and Boise, which as you may recall have a little history now. I also think for a bowl in Arizona Cincinnati and Boise would travel equally well.

Unfortunately, with at-large teams like USC, Florida, Penn State, or Oregon around the chances of the ACC, even with 3 10-win and better teams, will not get multiple BCS bids. In fact, the only way I think this could happen is if someone other than Miami wins the tiebreaker, which frees the Sugar to try to engineer Florida-Miami. Even then, if Miami takes a late loss, it may knock them right out of the top 14, especially considering the remaining schedule.

We are, once again, in a very precarious position with regards to 6+ win at-large teams. The only BCS conference team with a 6-6 or better record that was available was UConn. Even after that, I only had one spare, though I will be completely honest and say I didn’t look at all the MAC teams to see if they could eke out 6-6 or 7-5 records. (Remember, the NCAA requires all 7-5 teams to be picked before 6-6 teams.) With 34 bowls again this year, and more on the way next year (there’s at least 2 new bowls, and maybe another 1 or 2 on the way), I am convinced that this scenario will need to be dealt with next year. On the flip side, if some of these games do badly enough (especially independents that aren’t propped up by ESPN Regional TV so people have something to watch on New Year’s Eve other than old Christmas specials) perhaps some will fold and we’ll get back to maybe 30 bowls or so. (Hah, yeah right.)

Anyway, let’s hit up some Non-Obvious Matchups and call it a day.

  • BYU-Washington, Poinsettia Bowl: a.k.a, The Tyrone Willingham Memorial Bowl, as BYU’s controversial win on a last-second field goal in Seattle last was the first nail in Ty’s coffin. Of course, U-Dub is better this year (I’d say they couldn’t have been worse, but Washington State keeps proving that saying wrong.) but may not make a bowl, so I’m crossing my fingers for this one. Note if TCU makes the BCS instead of Boise, BYU probably ends up in Las Vegas. Again.
  • Kansas-Georgia, Independence Bowl: aahahahahahahaha. (ahem) I’m sorry, where was I? Oh, right, this is the Disappointing Season Bowl, Part I. Kansas still has to play Nebraska and Mizzou, and after losing to Colorado it’s hard to predict them to win anything. As for UGA, well, I think it’s pretty self-explanatory.
  • Air Force-Houston, Armed Forces Bowl: isn’t it at least a tinge ironic that the Air Force Academy almost never throws the ball and the school featuring the land-based mammal as a mascot runs the Air Raid offense? Well, is it at least Alanis-level irony? No? Oh.
  • LSU-Michigan, Capital One Bowl: a.k.a, the Les Miles Bowl. Though maybe Michigan fans are over it now?
  • Oklahoma-Ohio State, Alamo Bowl: a.k.a, the Disappointing Season Bowl, Part II. Both these teams aimed for the national title and ended up in San Antonio.

Cam Chanchellor: Not Clairvoyant After All

Some of you may recall this quote from ACC media days back in July:

Virginia Tech safety Kam Chancellor said that during a film session he think he has figured out what Tech is going to do, just from the blocking schemes.

“I can tell run, pass, who’s getting the ball,” Chancellor said.

“If they keep it like that, then we’re all good.”

Well, 309 yards is a relatively low total for us.

At any rate, this was a great win, of course. Tech made great second half adjusts to free up both a long run for Dwyer and get to the perimeter (though that was also helped by getting some blocking outside as well). The defense played well for three quarters, which was just enough allow GT to get a lead that it would never relinquish.

This was Tech’s first win over a top-5 team since beating #1 Alabama 7-6. In 1962.

Next up? Let us consult the list of GT Hexes:

  1. 0-7 against Georgia since 2000
  2. 0-12 against FSU since they joined the ACC in 1992
  3. 0-8 against Virginia in Charlottesville since 1991

Well, hrm.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

Programming note: first bowl predictions of the year will go up on Sunday!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): Ah, the Red River Shootout, thank you very much. At any rate, I think this one will be worth me getting up early for, which as you may note by the time this is posted (and, most likely, the numerous grammatical and spelling errors) is no small feat, indeed. I also think it’ll be a small feat for OU to win this one, but it is also the last chance for them to salvage their national aspirations this season. That said, I think Texas proves their worth here.
  • Iowa @ Wisconsin (ESPN): Iowa’s been winning in a very, well, Iowa-like fashion. The 30-28 win over Michigan was a downright barnburner – they’ve only scored more against Iowa State. Wisconsin, on the flip side, had been rolling offensively until they ran into Ohio State. Though they still outgained the Buckeyes by almost 200 yards, they also threw two interceptions returned for touchdown and allowed a kickoff return to go the distance. That said, I never quite trust Iowa, so I have to go with Wisconsin here to knock off the Big Ten’s last unbeaten.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan State (ESPN2): I’d make more Kafka jokes, but Doc Saturday already beat me to the punch. I also agree with the Doc re: Northwestern’s chances, as this should be really high flying, especially for a Big Ten game. I’ll stick with Sparty, though.
  • Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): If it weren’t for Illinois trying to get Ron Zook fired, Purdue would be the worst team in the Big Ten this year. Ohio State should be able to get back on track offensively against the Boilermakers.
  • Georgia @ Vanderbilt (SEC): As I recently explained to a friend of mine (who went to Vandy) last weekend when discussing Vandy’s loss to Army, “This is basically the same offensive Vandy had last year, and basically teams aren’t giving the ball to them for free anymore.” That said, they’re still +5 through 6 games, but the offense is just so bad: 18.8 points per game, 35% on third downs, etc. Meanwhile, in terms of ye ole schadenfraude full panic mode is on over in Athens after they made Jonathan Crompton look like Peyton last weekend in Knoxville. Unfortunately, I have to think the UGA defense will hold up slightly better against Vandy. Unfortunately.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (Raycom/Gameplan): Since this is an ACC Atlantic game, I’m just going to flip a coin. Heads is Wake, tails is Clemson…… tails it is!

12:30: Mississippi State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPNU): Well, I think MSU can beat MTSU. Right? I mean, Miss State is a little better than they were last year, aren’t they?

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Florida (CBS): Somehow I just don’t see Arkansas hanging 30, much less 40, on Florida’s defense. Just no way. UF takes care of business.
  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): Reports of optimism abound from South Bend. I don’t they’re well founded, though. Especially after the combined 57-9 beatdown USC has distributed the past two weeks, while Notre Dame hasn’t really shown they can do this “defense” thing. Also, this should give us a good clean transitive break, since Washington lost to Notre Dame but USC should beat Notre DAme.
  • Minnesota @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN/ABC): I think Minnesota is very solidly in the middle of the pack of the Big Ten. The natural order of things should be returned with a PSU victory here.
  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (Gameplan/ABC): Well, BC’s at home, which means their offensive might show up this week after not making the trip to Blacksburg. Meanwhile, with losses to Wake and Duke, I think it’s safe to say that NC State is one of the worst teams in the ACC. That said, that doesn’t necessarily mean anything (note that Virginia and Maryland still have conference victories), but I feel good enough about BC here to not have to resort to the ACC Atlantic coin flip.
  • Texas Tech @ Nebraska (Gameplan/ESPN/ABC): Hard to get a read here, since they pretty much each have beaten teams worse than them and lost to teams that were better than them. (Yes, I remember Houston that beat TTU.) Nebraska’s last effort was the 27-point fourth quarter in a driving rainstorm in Columbia that led to their 27-12 victory over Mizzou last Thursday. Mean, TTU did their thing against K-State, throwing for 500 yards and scoring 66 points. I suspect this game will be somewhere in between, but a Nebraska victory.
  • California @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/Gameplan): Well, we know now these are probably the two worst teams in the Pac-10 outside of Pullman. Both these teams have been struggling on offense, but Cal just has to have more talent offensively, right? Jahvid Best has to reassert himself at some point, doesn’t he? Cal can’t be this bad, can they?
  • Houston @ Tulane (CBSCS): Houston should be able to name the score for this one.

4:00:

  • Colorado State @ Texas Christian (Versus): TCU has to come out ready for this game. Colorado State isn’t terrible, but they’re definitely an opponent TCU should be able to beat easily. They just can’t get caught looking forward to BYU next week, or else CSU is decent enough to take advantage.
  • Virginia @ Maryland (ESPNU): It’s the ACC Atlantic Slap Fight of the Week! Ugh. If you hate football, you might like this game. I don’t know what else to say. Anyway, it’s back to the coin flip: UVA is head and UMD is tails…. tails.

6:00: Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): If I were less exhausted, I would have an extensive preview of this game. This is a must-win for GT, no two ways around it. With a loss, GT is pretty much eliminated from ACC title game contention, barring basically a repeat of, well, last year. My main worries in this game are: 1) VPI’s defensive line and 2) our defense. We haven’t played a team since Miami (and to a small extent, UNC) that was able to get a great interior rush and really disrupt what we’re trying to on the offensive. (That said, whenever a DT is constantly in your QB’s face, it doesn’t really matter which offense you run.) Miami did have another advantage as well in their speedy corners and linebackers, that were able to pretty much go outside because their defensive line was owning our offensive line all night. As a result – there was no where for the offense to go. I don’t know if VPI has the same type of talent on the edges, but if we allow their DTs to control the offensive line that is not good for Tech.
As for the defense, well, they’re not very good. Perhaps not coincidentally, Tech’s biggest problem is the lack of pass rush, which leads to QBs with all day to throw because they never have anyone in their face. At one point in the first half last week, we actually ran an all-out blitz and FSU still scored because it didn’t work. Tyrod Taylor is faster than anyone in our front 7 most likely, so forcing him out of the pocket is not necessarily a great thing. If our D-linemen do find themselves getting to him, they must make the tackle and not let him escape. He is throwing better this year and is now a competent passer. Therefore, it is imperative we show some semblance of a defense this week, because I don’t think we’ll put up 40 against VPI.

7:00:

  • Kansas @ Colorado (FSN): Colorado: still bad. KU: still scoring lots of points. This shouldn’t be hard to figure out.
  • Illinois @ Indiana (BTN): The plan for Indiana has to be this. They sit at 3-3, having lost 3 straight including the inexplicable 40-point(!) loss to Virginia. (Seriously, how the hell did that happen?) Illinois and Purdue are the most winnable games left on the schedule, getting them to 5-3. The problem is, the other games are against Northwestern (competent), Iowa (uh-oh), Wisconsin (oh man), and Penn State (there goes that). So this is a must-win, in a game they should win.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Mississippi (SEC): UAB does have a winning record in C-USA! Unfortunately for them, Ole Miss is not in Conference USA.

7:30:

  • Stanford @ Arizona (Versus): I got on the Cardinal bandwagon, and doggone it I’m going to go down with the ship.
  • Kentucky @ Auburn (ESPNU): Well, you can’t win ’em all, Auburn, but Kentucky should help get that chin back up.
  • University of Miami @ Central Florida (CBSCS): Yes, that’s “da U” up in Orlando. That said, they should do their thing and come out with a win. (This hast to be a 3-for-1 deal, right?)

7:45: South Carolina @ Alabama (ESPN): I’m running out of steam here. USC should suffer their second loss here. I hate to say it, but I think ‘Bama is just that good.

9:15: Missouri @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2): Welcome to the “lowered expectations” bowl! Both these teams have struggled in their own way, and the 1-loss records don’t really tell us much. If OSU gets Dez Bryant back, then the should win. Otherwise, it’s Mizzou.

10:15: Washington @ Arizona State (FSN): Arizona State just isn’t very good. I have to pick U-Dub here.

This Week in College Football: Week 7

Introducing the new “This Week in College Football”. With the proliferation of conferences desperate for ESPN’s money and exposure, we now have college ball on practically every day of the week. So each week, I’ll write up a short post about this week’s weekday games in the same vein as my weekend column.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday
8:00: Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN2): Ordinarily, I’d look at this and say, “Pschaw, 1-3 (1-0) Arkansas State at 3-2 (2-0) Monroe? This one’s a gimme.” Au contraire! Consider that Monroe’s wins are over I-AA Texas Southern and the F_U pick’em. Sure, Arknsas State’s win is over a I-AA team, but their losses are to Nebraska, Iowa, and Sun Belt powerhouse (note: that’s a purely relative statement) Troy. That said, and I can’t believe I’m going to say this, UL-Monroe should still win.

Wednesday
8:00: Boise State @ Tulsa (ESPN): In their last action, Tulsa only put up 27 points on a very bad Rice team. In their last action, Boise only put up 34 points on UC-Davis, which, for those you keeping score at home, is not in Division I-A. That said, it’s tough to argue against Boise here – against a decidedly vulnerable Oklahoma Tulsa scored zero points and was generally not very. Should still be fun to watch, though.

Thursday
7:30: Cincinnati @ South Florida (ESPN): Battle of the undefeated Big East teams! That’s right folks. That said, the portion of USF’s schedule that isn’t DI-AA or from the Sun Belt consists of Florida State and Syracuse, and Matt Groethe is still out for the season. Cincy, meanwhile, has taken care of business, with a solid win over Oregon State. (Rutgers may be 4-1, but considering they haven’t played other than Maryland since makes me dubious about that record.) Cincy is definitely the better team here, but can they go on the road and execute? I think so, but we’ll see.

Friday
8:00: Pittsburgh @ Rutgers (ESPN): Hey, more Big East teams! Each of these already has a loss, though (NC State and USF, respectively). I see nothing to suggest either of these teams is terribly good, so I’m going to cautiously go with the side that’s at least beaten more DI-A teams (Pitt).

Dear Bob Davie:

Allow me to quote a fantastic article written by a Navy fan last summer:

The spread option, as run by Paul Johnson and Ivin Jasper, is not the wishbone.

Emphasis mine. And indeed, said article explains exactly why defenses designed to stop the wishbone don’t work very well against Paul Johnson’s offense, whatever you want to call it. Apparently neither Mickey Andrews nor Bobby Bowden have read it.

One last thing. Bob Davie even showed a video of late-70’s Texas running the wishbone and said that since Tech has 3 guys in the backfield we’re obviously running the exact same offense! Well, gee, if that’s the case I guess the Wishbone is the same as the Wing-T and Maryland I. Sheesh.