Yearly Archives: 2007

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

Before we get into the FOOTBAW, a little baseball aside.

So to watch Braves games I bought a subscription to mlb.tv, baseball’s online service for out-of-market regional games. (This is where I give a hearty “f-you” to TBS for ending national Braves broadcasts; though I understand why it sucks that it happened when I moved to the west coast.) Though you can’t get live video of post-season broadcasts (a hearty “f-you” to Fox, just on general principle because I don’t like Fox – thanks for forcing a damn three day layoff between the end of the LCS and the World Series that may push the series into November) you can still get the live radio feeds. So I popped open the stream of the Red Sox home broadcasters about 10 minutes after game time to hear something to the effect of: “Beckett strikes out the side, we go to the bottom of the first.”

“Oh snap,” I thought, “if he’s on tonight the Rockies are pretty much screwed.” And he was on, but they didn’t lose then and there.

Bottom of the first, the Sox’s young leadoff hitter takes the 2nd pitch to straight-away center for a home run. Fenway erupts.

That’s the precise moment at which the Rockies lost.

The Sox scored a few more runs. I turned it off around the 3rd inning because I had to go home, but the outcome of the game wasn’t in doubt in my mind. So I wasn’t surprised to find later that the final was 13-1.

The Rockies pretty much need to win tomorrow. The problem for them is, they probably won’t and will head back to Denver down 2-0. I would be surprised if the series made it back to Boston at that point.

Anyway, now that I have a new idea for a post (how networks effect scheduling of games, or more accurately how they ruin them), let’s go onto football.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. As a free bonus, we’re throwing Thursday’s and Friday’s tilts as well.

Thursday
7:30: Boston College @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): This is one of the two big reasons to bother to watch football at all this weekend, other than that you should be watching it anyway. This the first of many of BC’s potential stumbling block away games, one of two of the conference’s toughest places to play. (They also make a visit to Clemson.) The big question is at quarterback. On the VPI side, the question is “Who will be the starter?” as their mobile freshman guy hurt his ankle last week versus Duke.
On the BC side, the question is “How will Matt Ryan fare against the VPI defense?” If their previous game against a “Tech” was any indication, he should do fairly well. The Hokies are actually ranked lower (40th, compared to 33rd) than the Jackets. Matt Ryan is definite NFL caliber QB who is not fazed by blitzing and can make pinpoint accurate throws into tight coverage. (His line: 17 TD, 6 INT, 63.2%.) The Hokies have the 17th ranked rushing defense, but it doesn’t really matter because BC will pass first (the Eagles pass on 56% of their plays).
Meanwhile, the Hokies will desperately try to retool their offense with Glennon back at the helm. Glennon was benched for a reason: against ECU he led the offense to 17 points, and only 7 in the debacle at LSU. He did play well last week, but that was against Duke. Boston College boasts a pretty stout defense, including the best rushing defense in the country, allowing a downright meager 46.53 yards per game. Their pass defense isn’t bad, either.
So, I guess in conclusion, I think the Hokies are going to have some real problems. If this game weren’t in Blacksburg, it might not even be close, but I’m going to call for BC to remain undefeated in a tight game.

9:00: Air Force @ New Mexico (Versus): This is a sort of cool down game, sort like how you’re supposed to “cool down” when you’re done exercising. This is actually a pretty big tilt in the MWC – though BYU is stomping everyone in the conference, neither of these teams are bad and it could have an impact on their bowl situations (though I have Air Force not going to San Diego to avoid a rematch with Navy). The Air Force should win, though.

Friday
9:00: Boise State @ Fresno State (ESPN): Don’t look, but the boys of The Valley (as opposed to those other valleys in California) are relevant in the WAC again after really brining the suck last year. 4-0 vs. Boise’s 3-0, but I think what most people care about is that one of them beats Hawaii. I’ll give Fresno the home edge.

Saturday
Noon:

  • West Virginia @ Rutgers (ABC/Gameplan): I don’t know why ABC is having these noon-eastern broadcasts this week, but whatever. At any rate, it’s safe to say that this game is far more important for West Virginia than it is for Rutgers. WVU needs to have only 1-loss to stay relevant nationally (and more importantly, preserve my prediction that they go to the Rose Bowl). And I think they will – I think Rutgers is a good football team, but WVU is better.
  • Colorado @ Texas Tech (Gameplan/ABC): See, I liked a few years ago when Colorado was terrible and bribing their recruits with strippers. Made it easy to “man, they are going to lose.” And they did. And by all rights, they should. But Texas Tech is coming off a huge let down against Missouri, who blew out the Raiders 41-10. Yes, that’s right, Texas Tech only scored 10 points. Neither of these schools is exactly on an uptick right now. I’m going to go ahead and pick TTU anyway, but be wary of an upset here.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN2): Big Ten yawnfest of the day. Michigan State wins; let’s move on.
  • North Carolina @ Wake Forest (Raycom/Gameplan): Okay, this isn’t really much more exciting, but at least I nominally care about it. UNC will probably lose, though, adding yet another game to their series of close losses.

12:30: Mississippi State @ Kentucky (LF/Gameplan): Kentucky is coming off their loss to UF, but should find relief in the comfort of the arms of Mississippi State. Or I should say, that Miss. State will desperately be trying to get Andre Woodson and his receivers in their arms, because the whole tackling thing is essential in this sport. I guess what I’m trying to convey here is that it’s rather unlikely they’ll be able to do so and will lose pretty badly.

3:00: Southern California @ Oregon (FSN): I’m not entirely sure how this game escaped ABC’s clutches (the scheduling for this weekend is wacky) but at any rate this is probably for the Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl berth, or in Oregon’s case a chance to sneak their way back into the title game picture. (Provided neither team loses again, they could both make a BCS bowl, especially Oregon.) Anyway, I think Oregon is darn good football team, and more notably they did what they were supposed to do with Stanford (whipping them 55-31). This game is, to me, definitely in favor of the Ducks, but could be close.

3:30:

  • Georgia vs. Florida (CBS): The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party kicks off once again in Jacksonville. I like to think of it as more as Georgia’s yearly whipping at the hands of the Gators. As you probably know, UF has won all but two contests since 1990, and I don’t see any reason why this season won’t be different.
  • Nebraska @ Texas (ABC/Gameplan): If sports message boards and more nerdy message boards intersected, they’d spawn memes like “lolnebraska” instead of “lolsony”. Nebraska has lost three straight and all but fired their head coach. The word “quit” has been used a lot in conjunction with the word “team.” In other words, Texas by at least 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the country is going to be subjected to this crap and it won’t even be in HD. Either of the other two ABC contests will probably be more palatable.
  • Clemson @ Maryland (Gameplan/ABC): So let’s start with the ACC game. Clemson broke their two game losing streak to the ACC’s Techs with a drubbing of Central Michigan. Maryland, meanwhile, was on the wrong side of Virginia’s incredible lucky streak last weekend. That said, this matchup is important in the ACC’s other division (my name for the division GT isn’t in because I can never remember the stupid names) and for the ACC bowl pecking order. Clemson still has a lot of weapons, but they seem to forget what they are – in their loss to Virginia Tech, they got down 17-0 early and Cullen Harper threw 66 passes. Davis and Spiller had a combined 12 yards rushing, and whenever stuff like that occurs it’s usually bad, bad news for the Tigers (same thing happened to a lesser degree against Tech). Provided Clemson avoids an early let down and runs the damn ball, I think they win.
  • South Florida @ Connecticut (Gameplan/ABC): Since USF’s soft, vulnerable underbelly has been exposed. And that vulnerable spot is the blitz, as Groethe apparently had “no hot reads” against Rutgers’s rush. Meanwhile, UConn finds itself ranked and playing the most important game in its short football history. The still haven’t beat anyone, though, and I doubt they will here.
  • Minnesota @ Michigan (ESPN Classic): Michigan, by 3 touchdowns.

6:30: California-Los Angeles @ Washington State (FSN): UCLA can’t decide if it sucks or not, and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they celebrated their victory over Cal by losing in Pullman. I mean, heck, the Cougars have more wins than Notre Dame does. That said, I’m taking UCLA here.

7:00: Kansas @ Texas Agricultural & Mechanical (ESPN2): I hate to say this, but I think KU is actually kind of legit. Look for them to prevail in College Station.

7:45: South Carolina @ Tennessee (ESPN): Whoops. So, uh, yeah. Vandy. And Alabama. Both these teams suffered terrible, terrible losses last week. While losing to Vandy is bad in and of itself for most SEC teams, getting basically blown out by one of your chief rivals (where does ‘Bama rank on the Tennessee rivalry scale, anyway?) is probably worse. The calls for the head of Fulmer reach high. Whil they be able to recover? It helps them that South Carolina has pretty much no offense, but Tennessee has no defense. I expect the Gamecocks to recover and prevail.

8:00: Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): This is probably Ohio State’s chance to lose before playing Michigan, and I’m sure the biggest Penn State fans this weekend may actually be in Pasadena. Penn State is a decent team, but Ohio State is good. This year, the Buckeyes haven’t allowed more than 17 points on defense. This would mean more if they could beat a decent team, though. I think they will, for my previously stated reason that they need to be undefeated heading into the Michigan game for maximum season-ending chaos potential.

10:00: California @ Arizona State (FSN): And our last game of the day, Cal’s last gasp of relevancy following their terrible loss to UCLA. That said, the Sun Devils face their first true test and I honestly thing the run ends here or next week at Oregon. I’ll go ahead and take the Bears.

I had something to say here, but this post took forever, so I’m going to bed. Enjoy the weekend!

Bowl Predictions, Week 2

Week 2 of my horrendous guesses trying to put some order into this season that lacks any. Some notes:

  • I really have no idea what to make of the BCS situation. For starters, who will the Rose Bowl want if Ohio State runs the table? There is no way any other Big Ten team is going to qualify for the BCS. And even outside of that, who are going to be the at-large teams? Of my at-large qualifiers, only Kansas might have 1-loss. Madness.
  • The Big Ten is so mediocre this year that they will have 9 bowl eligible teams. This week I was able to fill all spots, so I gave Indiana and Northwestern the shaft. The SEC may also have another qualifier, so I gave Arkansas the shaft, especially if they end up firing Nutt.
  • I still have Tech in the Music City bowl, but more realistically they will end up on the West Coast if they lose more than 1 game the rest of the way.
  • These result more of what is going on right now than out-and-out predictions, which is why my stated prediction of Michigan beating Ohio State isn’t on here. Also, these try to somewhat more firmly rooted in reality.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

Before our predictions, let me misquote the best Tom Clancy-based movie, Hunt for Red October: “This season will get out of control. This season will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”

With USF losing Thursday night in New Jersey, things could open up for the 1-loss teams if there’s some shenanigans down in Baton Rouge tonight. By the way, I think that USF should stay in the top ten – USC didn’t fall that far after suffering a far, far worse loss. But I suspect the humans will put then in the 12-15 range. Whatever.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (ESPN): Surprising Indiana squad gets a home date with a somewhat disappointing Penn State team. (Note, however, that both are 5-2. Pre-season expectations for the win!) That said, Indiana got blown out last week by the green Spartans, meanwhile Penn State is coming off a huge victory over Wisconsin. Should be interesting, as far as Big Ten games go, tough to tell who’s going to come out on top in this one. I go against my usual instinct to pick the home team in this situation and go with Penn State.
  • Iowa @ Purdue (ESPN2): Don’t let their victory over Illinois fool you – Iowa is still terrible. While Purdue has wilted against actual teams, Iowa doesn’t really count. Look for the Boilermakers re-discover how to play offense.
  • Army @ Georgia Tech (Raycom/Gameplan): I wouldn’t usually list a game like this, but it’s Tech so it’s going here. This is homecoming for the Jackets, and it was hoped when this game was scheduled it’d be a homecoming for Bobby Ross, but he resigned earlier this year and got inducted into the GT Hall of Fame anyway. I hope we can get up early and practice passing a little, but Army made Boston College leave their starters well into the second half, and as the cliche goes the guys from the military academies usually don’t quit easily.

12:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (FSN): Why is this on TV? Really? OU rolls.
  • Texas @ Baylor (Versus): (see above, replace “OU” with “Texas”)
  • Tennessee @ Alabama (LF/Gameplan): Whoops. The Third Saturday in October rivalry is relegated to the dregs of the SEC TV deal. At the beginning of the year, I would’ve said this’d be on ESPN at the worst, but who knew that Florida-Kentucky would have not only SEC implications, but national ones? Both these teams have multi-game winning streaks, but only Tennessee’s victory over Georgia looks any good. Also, I hate ‘Bama, so I’ll wish I was on “old Rocky Top” and pick the Vols.
  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (Gameplan): What would upset the machinations of a SEC title game contender more than a loss to Vandy? Unfortunately for the Commodores, South Carolina seems to be winning the games it’s supposed to this year. So I’ll take the Gamecocks. (But go ‘Dores!)

1:00: Wake Forest @ Navy (CSTV): Over/under on pass attempts for this game should be around 30. While Navy is formidable, in the end Wake should win.

3:30:

  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame seeks to go 2-0 against teams from Los Angeles. Will they succeed? Probably not. Then again, winning by a touchdown against Arizona isn’t really much of a triumph to come off of. But, still, I see little reason to pick ND here.
  • Florida @ Kentucky (CBS): CBS returns to Lexington for the second weekend in a row, again with national title implications on the line. Loser here is removed from the picture completely. I don’t even know where to begin to analyze this game. Both these teams are good, good, good. I feel UF brings a slightly better offense than LSU but also a worse defense. All I know is that this will probably make for good TV, considering how evenly matched these two teams were against LSU. Possibly in Florida’s favor is that they’re coming off a bye week, giving them time to re-focus off the LSU loss. If they knock off Kentucky, that puts them in the driver’s seat for the SEC East and a possible (probable) re-match against LSU. So, just to continue the bizarreness of this season, I’ll go with the Gators here.
  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (ESPN2/ABC): Of all the bizarre things that have happened this year, this is the most normal. OSU was not highly regarded going into the year but has so far run the table on what has turned out to be a really soft schedule. Much like USC, I don’t really see where they will stumble on their schedule, though, except for maybe their two remaining road tests: @Penn State and @Michigan. Honestly, for Bizarro Year to be truly complete they need to go into the Michigan game undefeated (and then losing, thus making the whole thing come full circle), so I’m going with the Buckeyes here.
  • California @ California-Los Angeles (ABC/Gameplan): While I didn’t see Cal’s dumb, dumb loss last week (seriously, what I read about the play at the end makes it sound downright Reggie-esque), I do know that UCLA has two bad losses at this point, including the sole Notre Dame victory. Cal gets back on their feet down in the Rose Bowl.
  • Miami @ Florida State (Gameplan/ABC/ESPN2): Ahahahahaha. Ahahahahahahahaha. Thank god this isn’t the special season-opener Monday night game anymore. But, yeah, gotta pick FSU to win here. For starters, we need Miami to pick up more conference losses. But also Miami is just terrible. If FSU can put up a few touchdowns early Miami will be unable to catch up – we caught several breaks last week where Kyle Wright’s “quarterbacking” bailed us out.
  • Texas Tech @ Missouri (Gameplan/ABC): Texas Tech – Missouri, now with Fiesta Bowl implications! Both teams need to avoid a second conference loss to stay in the race for their respective divisions. If Mizzou can stop the Texas Tech aerial assault, even a little, they may stand a chance. But I don’t like their chances.

5:45: Kansas @ Colorado (ESPN): I am still trying to comprehend the part of the season where Kansas is a serious contender. USF, I could believe, because I mean, it’s the Big East, Florida is a fertile recruiting ground, etc. Still, Colorado already ruined Oklahoma’s perfect season, can they strike twice? After losing to Kansas State last week, I’m going to say no.

7:30: Oregon @ Washington (FCS Pacific/FSN NW): So, uh, Washington was a little overrated to start the year. Meanwhile, Oregon is still scoring a lot of points, as they come off a 52-7 shellacking of Wazzou last week. I expect more of the same here, though maybe only 30-7 because it’s in Seattle.

8:00:

  • Michigan @ Illinois (ABC): Ugh. I still have a hard time believing that Michigan is a decent football team at all, and Illinois just proved to us that Ron Zook is still, in fact, their coach after losing to probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big Ten last week, scoring only two field goals. The Juice will apparently be back at QB this week. Also, don’t look, but Michigan is 3-0 in conference play. 3-0. Yes, that’s right folks, a trip to the Rose Bowl could be on the line in Ann Arbor next month, the very place where all this craziness began. So, as rationalized above, I think this matchup will be preserved an I’ll take the Wolverines.
  • Virginia @ Maryland (ESPN2): Both of Tech’s terrible losses face off in College Park. I’m still not sold on UVA, while Maryland is actually kind-of decent. Also, we need UVA to lose. So go Terps.

9:00: Auburn @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Tigers win! (Sorry.) Anyway, Auburn played down to Arkansas’s level last week and eeked out a 9-7 victory. LSU is coming off a not-exactly debilitating loss last week. I think this will be a great game if Auburn shows up with any semblance of an offense. We know both coaches are willing to take risks, though (and perhaps Tito can correct me on this) it seems to me Tuberville has gotten more conservative in the past few years. (As much as people love to talk about LSU’s fake FG earlier this year, Auburn ran wonderful fakes and play-actions 4 years ago or so.) Meanwhile, Auburn is sitting at one conference loss and still in the SEC West race and could control their own destiny with a win. Will they win, though? I have my doubts. I think LSU is probably the better team here, and playing in Baton Rouge, at night, gives them an edge. (Hopefully Tito scored some tickets and can let us know first hand, also EDSBS’s account of their trip there indicates that it’s just as crazy as you’d think.) So I’m going to pick LSU.

That wraps it up for me, I need to get to bed so I can watch the early games. BCS comes out on Monday until the final week, so except the final version of the bowl predictions then. (Though I may post a sort-of “beta” version late Sunday, we’ll see.)

Bowl Predictions, Week 1

Here we go kids. Here they are. I kind of explain the process during last week’s first set. This year for our first week I’ll try to make sense of the season and take a conference-by-conference look at the predictions, as well as a BCS section. That said, this is all pretty much a crap shoot the way this season is going.

The BCS:
The BCS rules are laid out on the prediction page, so I won’t bother here. What I will say is that my process for the BCS goes something along the lines of synthesizing the current standings with what I think will happen. So for now this yields a title game matchup of Ohio State and South Florida. I don’t think USF is as illegitimate as a lot of people may think. They have out-of-conference wins over UNC and at Auburn, and a victory over still highly-regarded West Virginia.

Other potential title game contenders include the other teams in the top 5: BC, Oklahoma, and LSU. LSU was (rightly) not penalized for losing to Kentucky, with some losses by other top teams could find themselves in New Orleans. Of course, according to me, they’ll end up there anyway, but we’ll get there in a bit.

The other conference winners, according to me, will be Boston College, Oklahoma, LSU, and Oregon. While a loss in Blacksburg Thursday does sink BC’s title game chances (well, in all likelihood), it does not end their ACC Title game chances. Oregon is my pick to come out of the three-way choas created by Cal’s loss to Oregon State. So they all go to their respective bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose).

So the Rose has the first shot at the remaining eligible teams, since they lose Ohio State to the title game. And, well, I have my doubts they’ll be excited about what they see. There is history of SEC teams going to Rose Bowls in the distant past (i.e., before World War II Alabama went to a few games and Georgia Tech even went to one). So I put Kentucky there, assuming they’ll do well the rest of the way. I figure West Virginia will be able to go to a BCS game and land in the Orange (though they could end up in the Rose as well, sending Kentucky to the Orange). I like Cal going to the Fiesta, though in retrospect perhaps this should be USC, or maybe even someone else because for my Oregon scenario they each need 2 losses. I’ll re-examine this next week. Moving on, I then put Kansas in the Sugar because they’ll be the most appealing team left.

The ACC:
Since I have BC going to the Orange Bowl, then my predicted ACC runner-up will be Virginia Tech, who then will go to the Gator.

It gets a lot harder after that.

Thanks to their good record right now, I have Virginia in the Gator Bowl spot, though I doubt this will remain the status quo. Clemson slots nicely to the Champs Spots Bowl, and then we have the ACC# 5/6/7 cluster for the Music City, Car Care, and Emerald Bowls. In perhaps a bit of homerism, I have Maryland getting exiled out west while Florida State and Georgia Tech go to the Car Care and Music City Bowls. Assuming Miami loses to FSU, they’ll bring up the rear and make a return trip to Boise, though the league may send Maryland or FSU there instead.

The Big East:
I have both USF and WVU going to the BCS. The Big East #2 pick goes to either the Gator or Sun Bowls (see the page), and so this year I see Cincinnati going to the Sun Bowl (otherwise, the Sun will be stuck with Big East teams in 2008 and 2009). I like Rutgers to go Charlotte to play FSU and UConn to go up north, leaving Louisville to salvage to the remains of their season in Birmingham.

The Big 12:
The choas has hit especially hard in the Big 12, with both of the traditional Big 12 South powers losing before they played each other. Nonetheless, I see Oklahoma winning the conference and having a Fiesta. However, assuming Kansas’s only loss is to OU in the Big 12 Title Game, then they could very easily still qualify for the BCS, so I’ve slotted them into the Sugar Bowl.

The Cotton Bowl will take the aerial show of Texas Tech, sending Texas out to the official start of interest-worthy bowls, the Holiday Bowl. TAMU slots in nicely to the Alamo Bowl, followed by Kansas State going to the Gator (see the Big East for why). The sixth pick goes to one of the two games that no one will see, the Insight Bowl, due to being on the NFL Network, unfortunate if you’re a fan of the Missouri Tigers. The next slot is the Independence Bowl, where I send Colorado, and last and certainly least is the other game no one will see, the Texas Bowl, where the greatest offense on Earth, Oklahoma State, winds up.

The Big Ten:
After everyone’s favorite “whoops!” moment of the year (Michigan losing to Appalachian State), the Big Ten was written off. And it probably still should be, as it will probably only send Ohio State to the BCS, leaving the Rose without its coveted Big Ten team as none will probably qualify.

Michigan, at the rate they are going, may well finish runner-up in the conference and end up with a nice payout in the Capital One Bowl, a nice finish after the way they started. I sent Penn State to the Outback, followed by Illinois going to San Antonio. Indiana finishes their surprising season in Orlando. Wisconsin finishes its disappointing season in Tempe, with Michigan State staying local and going to the Motor City Bowl.

“But wait!” you may say, “what about Purdue and Northwestern?” Indeed. Purdue has 5 wins and Northwestern has 4, and both should/could qualify. In the past, the Big Ten has had trouble filling its 7 bids but this year appears not to be the care. Parity is good for the old bottom line, it seems. I see Northwestern getting the shaft and Purdue (spoiler alert!) going to the Armed Forces Bowl to fill in for a Pac-10 team.

Conference USA:
Conference USA has a hearty 5 bids, the most of any mid-major. I predict East Carolina to win the whole shebang and earn a bid to the Liberty Bowl.

More than anywhere else, mid-majors generally have teams picked out-of-order to increase the chance of the game actually selling tickets. This is why I almost always pick Southern Miss to go to the GMAC bowl in Mobile, as it’s about a 2 hour drive away. My predicted title game runner-up, Tulsa, then ends up in the Papajohns.com Bowl, which always makes me wonder why they just don’t drop the stupid “dot-com” like everyone else did 4 years ago (c.f., “insight.com Bowl” -> Insight Bowl”). The last two bids are held by geographically-named bowls (New Orleans and Hawaii), where the conference might be represented by UTEP and Central Florida.

Independents:
Navy will easily qualify for its berth in the Poinsettia Bowl. At 1-6, Notre Dame will probably not reel off a 5-game winnings streak and miss a bowl game for the first time since 2003. Were I a lesser man, I would make a quip about how this helps postpone them extending their consecutive bowl games without a win streak. I’m not, so I won’t.

The MAC:
The Mid-American Conference has 3 bids. Though it says its champion can go to either the Motor City or GMAC Bowls, due to geographic proximity the champion almost always goes to the Motor City. This will probably happen again, with Central Michigan heading to Detroit. I then like Miami of Ohio to go Mobile and Ball State to go to Toronto.

The MWC:
The Mountain West Conference has 4 bids. Its champion goes to Las Vegas, and BYU is destroying most of its conference foes so far, so I’ll send them there. Wyoming goes to San Diego, Air Force to the Armed Forces Bowl, and then New Mexico to the New Mexico Bowl. Falls into place nicely, I’d say.

The Pac-10:
Though this will probably change next week, I have both Oregon and Cal going to BCS games. I like Southern Cal then to go to the Holiday Bowl against Texas. Traditional powers, usually good game, etc., etc. Next up is the Sun Bowl, where I’ll send Arizona State.

After that, the Pac-10’s games aren’t all that great, in terms of stature. I like UCLA going to the Las Vegas Bowl and Oregon State to the Emerald, leaving the Armed Forces Bowl without a team. (Of the current 2-win teams, Washington probably has the best chance of winning 6.)

The SEC:
LSU and Kentucky will both go to the BCS in these projections. “However,” you say, “didn’t South Carolina beat Kentucky?” Why yes they did! But I never said that Kentucky would go to the SEC title game, did I? Late losses usually kill teams, so South Carolina’s loss will probably know them out of the top 14 of the BCS and send them to the Capital One Bowl.

The SEC groups their 3-5 and 6-8 picks, presumably to give the bowls more flexibility who they chose. I like Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee to finish in the 3-5 cluster and end up in the Peach, Outback, and Cotton bowls respectively. I like Alabama in the Music City to face Tech, Arkansas in Memphis, and Georgia in Shreveport.

The Sun Belt:
Troy has won 4 straight and I like that trend to continue. FAU also has a shot, but Troy has just dominated everyone since that Oklahoma State game.

The WAC:
The WAC has three bowl bids, all primarily designed to give their remote teams somewhere to go if they qualify. In a rare move, the Humanitarian Bowl actually gains its old name back after being known by it’s sponsor (Micron) for the past few years. (Hint, hint Chick-fil-a Bowl.) Boise State will almost certainly end up there. Then there’s the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii is 18th in the initial BCS, so even if they do win out I highly doubt they’ll be able to climb high enough to qualify. So Hawaii stays there. For the New Mexico Bowl, I pretty much threw a dart and it landed on Fresno State, so there you go.

Anyway, that’s all for this week. I’ll update these every Monday the rest of the way, with the the release of each new BCS. This season has been wacky so far, so these are very subject to change.

Week Eight

Despite two notable exceptions, the college football world seemed to right itself this weekend. Most of the teams in the top 25 took care of business from the get-go. #3 Ohio State slammed Kent State 48-3, #5 South Florida beat Central Florida 64-12, and #9 Oregon trashed Washington State 53-7. Virginia Tech, Arizona State, and Texas dominated, too. Boston College, the USCs, and Georgia let their opponents hang around until the end. Penn State embarrassed #19 Wisconsin 38-7, and #20 Kansas continued their march to a division title with a 58-10 decision over Baylor. (Admittedly, they were playing Baylor.)

“Maybe we should try to go into the other team’s end zone.”
As you well know, the top two teams in the country lost last evening. This is the eighth time that both have done so in one weekend since 1964 and the first time since 1996. Cal fell thanks to a poor decision by first-time starter Kevin Riley, who decided to run the ball with 0:10ish left rather than throw it away. Only when he fell to the ground did he realize that his team was out of time-outs. There are probably more reasons for the Bears’ collapse, but they are in the Pac-10, so they aren’t worth a more detailed analysis.

Somebody at ESPN.com needs to proofread a little closer.
LSU fell, too, in a triple-overtime thriller against up-and-coming Kentucky. The majority of the credit goes to Wildcat QB Andre’ Woodson, who threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns. He even VINCE YOUNGed into the end zone through a gap so wide that I could have done the same. Woodson’s performance was impressive, but the Wildcat defense won the game. LSU failed to gain a first down in four tries on the ground, the last coming about a yard short. Colt David almost saved his team with a ridiculous 57-yard field goal attempt as time expired; he had the distance but not the angle.

This is what happens when you let a conference doormat beat a juggernaut. People lie down on football fields.
Auburn’s transformation appears genuine, though touchdowns are few and far between. The Tigers inched out a 9-7 win over Arkansas thanks to the powerful (and sometimes inaccurate) leg of freshman kicker Wes Byrum. Byrum sealed his place in Auburn football history by performing the Gator chomp after his game-winning field goal(s) against Florida. He missed two longer attempts against the Razorbacks but redeemed himself by splitting the uprights to put Auburn ahead.
“IN YOUR FACE, URBAN MEYER!”
The Tiger defense continued to impress. Arkansas’ run game only managed 67 yards, ending McFadden’s run (yuk yuk) at the Heisman. That effectively shut down the Razorback offense by forcing Casey Dick to throw the ball, which he can’t do. I’m not sure why they play him at all with receiver Marcus Monk injured. One of my friends suggested that McFadden should be the starting quarterback. That makes sense to me.

A DVR is a wonderful tool.
I’m looking forward to this weekend. Kansas goes to Colorado to continue their Big 12 quest. USC returns to South Bend, but this time the Trojans don’t have much to lose (or the best offense of all time) (3:30 PM ET, NBC). Miami and Florida State face off in what used to be an epic struggle (3:30 PM ET, ABC). Down-and-out Nebraska and Texas A&M meet for yet another showdown of disappointments.

Every time I see this picture, I get a sick feeling in my stomach.
The SEC boasts three major matchups: Florida at Kentucky (3:30 PM ET, CBS), Tennessee at Alabama (4:30 PM ET, CBS), and Auburn at LSU (9 PM ET, ESPN). No one knows what will happen in Lexington. ‘Bama just squeaked by Ole Miss and Tennessee is on a roll, so I’m guessing the Tide will pull off another bogus comeback win. Tuberville is 14/15 in SEC road stadiums, but his one loss was against LSU in 2005. (Thanks a lot, John Vaughn.) I’m considering making the drive to Baton Rouge to redeem my unfaithfulness over the Florida game.

Nope, your game-winning field goal against Georgia does not erase the five misses against LSU. Nice try.
P.S. I forgot to mention that Michigan State won a 52-27 beatdown of Indiana. My fingers are crossed for a victory over Ohio State in Buckeye Stadium, which hasn’t happened since 1987. Go Spartans!