Bowl Predictions – Week 1

Hot off the presses!
A breakdown of what I do and some interesting matchups:

  • The process: first, I had to go through and try and figure out the conference pecking orders. I use about three sources to try to guess at it. This is probably the most tedious part of the whole thing, but it essential if you want to be anywhere near correct.
  • The selection numbers do not neccessarily tie-in to the conference standings. Though several conferences have implemented this, some do not. (For instance, before this year, the ACC did not do this, resulting in NC State going to the Car Care Bowl in Charlotte while both Boston College and Georgia Tech got sent to Boise and San Fransisco last year.) Generally, what happens isn’t nearly as bad as my example, but just be warned “Pac-10 #2” means “the first Pac-10 team not picked by the BCS” more than it means the Pac-10 runner-up.
  • Also, this early in the year, things are still a crap shoot. There are several teams with 3 or 4 wins that may struggle to make 6 wins, and it’s difficult to tell until they’ve played more conference games.
  • By my count, the Big Ten will be in the most trouble making its bids this year, unless Michigan State stops sucking. For now, I’ve got them going to the Motor City Bowl, but they’ve looked completely lost after that Notre Dame game and will be struggling to get to 6 wins.
  • The SEC may also have problems – Kentucky or Vanderbilt will need to garner 3 more wins to fill out their allotments.
  • As a Georgia Tech fan, I am somewhat scared to put us in the Orange Bowl, which is why I’ve put them in the Peach/Chick-fil-a. That said, the matchup against Alabama would be cool – another old SEC rivalry (we’re in their fight song, even).
  • Assuming the SEC doesn’t continue to beat up on itself, they should put both Florida and Auburn in the BCS. The best situation will be if UF and AU don’t meet again in the SEC title game (i.e., Arkansas wins out), and UF wins the SEC title to go the Sugar. AU should remain plenty strong to garner an at-large berth, probably in the Orange. AU will probably play BC, Clemson, or GT there – the latter two being the most interesting matchups to me. (Tigers vs. Tigers, or AU tries to take revenge for 2003 and 2005. I like ’em both.)
  • The ACC is a total mess right now. GT, Clemson, Wake, and BC are the top teams in the standings. The main question is: how far will the Florida schools and VPI fall? I have no idea honestly. I can’t really see Miami going to Boise, but I have no idea where else to put them.
  • Though it will probably happen, for the time being I’m not putting Boise St. in the BCS. Mostly because I need another WAC team to act as an at-large in the Poinsettia Bowl.
  • Yes, that’s right, SMU in a bowl. Will probably happen, or else C-USA won’t fill its bids.
  • I’ve said that I’d like to attend the Birmingham Bowl or the Music City bowl this year, but they’re both turning out pretty crappy. UAB probably won’t make a bowl, so C-USA will have to send someone there. USF fails to excite me as well. And while I like cheering for Wake, USC-East vs. Wake probably isn’t very interesting.

That’s about all on the bowl predictions front. Standings will be updated every Sunday after the BCS standings for the week come out.

On another note, lemme talk about Vandy-UGA. I’ve been cheering for Vandy every since I can remember, mostly because I enjoy cheering for underdogs, and well, Vandy is almost always an underdog. Over the past few years, one of my best friends from HS is at Vandy, which gives me additional incentive to root for them. (In fact, Vandy’s stadium is the only other college stadium I’ve been to, where I witnessed GT’s overtime win in 2003.) On the other hand, as a student and fan of Georgia Tech, I loathe the so-called “University” of Georgia and just about everything it stands for.

Therefore, outside of GT beating them, nothing was sweater than watching Vandy put it to UGA last Saturday – during UGA’s homecoming, nonetheless. The most hilarious part is that the announcers and most delusional UGA fans seem to thing Matt Stafford is some sort of god, when their starter’s numbers looked mighty fine to me. I’ve watched Vandy fade so many times in the 4th quarter the past few years I thought it was over when UGA returned that interception for a TD. Vandy never gave up, though, and drove for the last second field goal that split the uprights.

Anyway, looking forward, GT plays Clemson Saturday. Don’t let Vegas’s 9 point line fool you: this is an extremely close rivalry. I’ll elaborate more on this later in the week. And make sure to read Tito’s AU-UF gameday post below.