This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

A quick note on the week one guide: contrary to my usual policy, I do list FCS vs. FBS matchups because there’s so darn many of them, but as you’ll see below I dispense with them quickly.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Stanford @ Northwestern (ESPN): I think this will be closer than many think, but still hard to see how Northwestern comes through here.
  • Richmond @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland.
  • Norfolk State @ Rutgers (ESPNEWS): Rutgers.
  • South Dakota State @ Kansas (FSN): Kan–er, wait. Going with South Dakota State here.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia (SEC): I’m trying to give better than one-word responses for games between two FBS teams, but, well, even for games like this hard to see any other outcome than the obvious.
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss.
  • Colgate @ Navy (CBSS): Navy.
  • Illinois State @ Iowa (BTN): Iowa.

12:30: Wofford @ Clemson (ACC): Clemson.

2:00: Portland State @ Washington State (Pac12): Wazzou.

3:30:

  • Louisville vs. Auburn (@Atlanta, GA; CBS): I think this game is probably more intriguing on paper than otherwise, but if there’s any point in the season when you want to attempt to stop the Malzahn Death Machine, it’s in Week 1.
  • Virginia @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): UVA should offer slightly more resistance than a punching bag. Slightly.
  • Brigham Young @ Nebraska (ABC): This game may wind up being the most interesting in this time slot. Nebraska will debut Bill Riley, yet I think I’ve missed the previews of the transition to the new coach. Do the Cornhuskers still have the talent advantage to prevail over the Stormin’ Mormons? I’m thinking they do.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Temple (ESPN): The last time Temple beat Penn State, the attack on Pearl Harbor had not yet happened. Thanks to the magic of ties, the Owls have not-lost more recently, in 1950. Other than that, this series has been mostly pain. It does not look to change.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Arkansas (ESPNU): “So… you’re saying there’s a chance?”
  • Sam Houston State @ Texas Tech (FSN): Texas Tech.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa (CBSS): These teams were both terrible last year and there’s not much reason to think it’ll be different this year. But, hey, it’s football, and it’s on TV! Also rolling with Tulsa.

4:00:

  • Southern Illinois @ Indiana (ESPNEWS): Indiana.
  • Bowling Green @ Tennessee (@Nashville, TN; SEC): It took me forever to figure out if this was a Tennessee home game or not, more in the de jure sense (i.e., how ticket sales are split and other contractual stuff), and not in the de facto sense, which it most definitely is. Vols should roll in front of a partisan crowd.
  • Southeast Missouri @ Missouri (SEC): Mizzou.

5:00: Grambling @ California (Pac12): Cal.

7:00:

  • Arizona State vs. Texas A&M (@Houston, TX; ESPN): I still remain bummed that “A&M” does not actually stand for anything. This one could go either way, depending mostly on if A&M’s secondary has gotten any less flammable in the off-season. I’m betting it has.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Kentucky (ESPNU): I think Kentucky can win this one? Probably?

7:30:

  • Texas @ Notre Dame (NBC): It felt like several times last season that the Longhorns were just this close to figuring it out. Well, Week 1 will likely do them no favors try to get a handle on this season early. I like the Domers here.
  • Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (FSN): I think the Mountaineers are going to win, but man, strangers things have happened at night in Morgantown.
  • New Mexico State @ Florida (SEC): Florida will win, but boy howdy I suspect many Gator fans will be watching with bated breath that there will be some sort sign, any sign, that this team has an offense.
  • McNeese State @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Northern Illinois (CBSS): Again, the chances of MACtion this early do not seem strong.

8:00:

  • Alabama vs. Wisconsin (@Arlington, TX; ABC): Look, Alabama is going to win. That out of the way, that doesn’t make the matchup any less intriguing. Of course, this is kind of offense that Nick Saban’s defenses have been the best at stopping over the years, so it doesn’t seem like it’ll be the best preparation for the SEC foes that have given him the most trouble. On the flip side, Wisconsin executes their bruising style better than almost anyone else, which means we’re going to see a game of strength-versus-strength. Alabama’s questions at quarterback and the secondary are also potential areas of concern, but I don’t think Wisconsin is the team that will be able to expose them well enough.
  • Texas State @ Florida State (ESPNEWS): Remember, when you have as much talent as Florida State does, it’s not rebuilding, it’s reloading. I personally think the predictions of their demise may be a bit premature, but it won’t matter in this game anyway.
  • Eastern Washington @ Oregon (Pac12): Oregon.

10:00:  Mississippi State @ Southern Mississippi (FS1): A rare trip to Hattiesburg for either of the (relatively) blue-chip programs in Mississippi, I’m not sure that USM has quite recovered from the Dark Years to go toe-to-toe with SEC foes again, but it’s a sure bet the crowd will be trying to turn back the clock.

11:00: Arkansas State @ Southern California (Pac12): Even if I were on the West Coast right now I probably wouldn’t stay up to watch this one.

Sunday
3:00: Purdue @ Marshall (FS1): Marshall, just ’cause.

3:30: South Carolina State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (@Orlando, FL; ESPN): There’s not much else on on Sunday afternoon, and it’s interesting to see the FCS get into the neutral-site game. And, again, your alternative is watching Purdue.

Monday
8:00: Ohio State @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): A year ago, the ESPN write-up for VPI’s victory raised questions about Urban’s direction and whether VPI was a darkhorse national title contender. Whoops. At any rate, don’t expect a repeat this time around. Wacky stuff can happen in Blacksburgh at night, but I don’t expect lightning to strike two years in a row.

This Week in College Football: Week 1

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
6:00:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina (@Charlotte, NC; ESPN): It’s a bit odd, as this is finally the year where people aren’t saying that this is North Carolina’s year. Does that mean they will actually be good for once? Steve Spurrier is also under about as much fire as a coach of his stature can come under, but despite all the issues I think the Gamecocks have, at least, this one.
  • Florida International @ Central Florida (CBSS): Down in Florida, George O’Leary’s Knights may be poised for a very, very darkhorse run at being the best Group of Five team. It should start with a victory.

7:00: Oklahoma State @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): An odd away game for a Big 12 team, venturing up into MAC country, but unless MACtion is already in mid-season form it’s hard to see how this will work out for the Chippewas.

7:30: Alcorn State @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): This is the most bizarre offseason I can recall in my 12 years of following Georgia Tech. We lost virtually all of our skill position production. Our defense was terrible last year, so the hope is mostly that it can’t be worse this year. Yet, we’ve got hype. We’re being mentioned as potential ACC champions along with Clemson and a reloading Florida State. We’re getting some press as a darkhorse playoff candidate. I mean, hey, if we get through the schedule we have this year with only one loss, then we’ll certainly deserve it, but still. By far the most plausible thing, though? Justin Thomas as a Heisman candidate.
I’m also happy to say I’m currently in the Atlanta area and poised to attend my first Georgia Tech home game since I graduated. Woo!

8:00: Western Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I’m still scratching my head over how Vandy got so bad so quickly last year, and not only that, how it continues to look bleak this year. Can they top the Hilltoppers? I won’t call for the upset, but I wouldn’t be surprised.

8:30: Michigan @ Utah (FS1): Michigan playing in a strange land? On a Thursday? I’m sure some blue-and-maize types are really scratching their heads, but this provides a really interesting matchup and a test for Jim Harbaugh in his first college game in a while. I think Harbaugh proves how much of an upgrade his is pretty quickly, though I am only picking them in this one very tentatively.

9:00: Texas Christian @ Minnesota (ESPN): The Golden Gophers provide a stiff test as TCU shakes off the rust and dust, but once that happens sometime around halftime this one is not going to be pretty.

9:30: Duke @ Tulane (CBSS): I’m comfortably picking Duke in non-conference road games now? I mean, it is Tulane, but still, what is this world coming to?

10:00: Texas-San Antonio @ Arizona (Pac12): Hard to see the Roadrunners providing the Wildcats much of a test.

1:00: Colorado @ Hawaii (CBSS): I know I just said this, but terrible or otherwise banned from postseason teams are supposed to save this game for, like, November. Come on! Also, will CBSS just be broadcasting the feed of the super-homer Hawaii local announcers? Hopefully, yes. Also, the Buffs should win.

Friday
3:30: Charlotte @ Georgia State (ESPNU): Georgia State might win this one! Emphasis on the might. I’ll call that anyway. Also, who kicks off a game at 3:30 PM on a weekday?

7:00:

  • Baylor @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): Baylor.
  • Michigan State @ Western Michigan (ESPNU): No matter how much PJ Fleck rows, it’s Sparty all the way.
  • Fordham @ Army (CBSS): Army, probably.

8:00: Weber State @ Oregon State (Pac12): Oregon State.

9:00: Kent State @ Illinois (BTN): So, again. Remember that time Illinois fired their head coach a week before the season started? Oh, right, that was last week. Geez louise, I mean, they were going to be terrible anyway, but still! They’ll win at least this one, though. Probably.

10:15: Washington @ Boise State (ESPN): This one should be worth staying up for, as Chris Peterson faces his old team immediately after leaving for his new one. As for a winner, I have almost no idea, but let’s go with Boise because it’d be more fun.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

Okay, since I kind of backed myself all the way up to the first day of the season, I’ll provide links to all the individual conference breakdowns here:

And now, let us complete our yearly ritual.

First, the list of shame, that is, teams that scheduled more than one FCS opponent: Boston College, Kentucky, and North Carolina. It’s not great that two of the three are ACC teams, but hey, at least there’s only three.

This is normally where the best schedule list would appear, but I’m having a bit of a crisis. Virginia is the only school with a rating better than 2, but they’re awful, and one of those teams is Notre Dame, which other ACC teams are also benefiting from. Instead of a ranking, I’m going to produce a list of teams that I thought of as having better schedules:

  • Virginia (2.25 legit, 1 FCS): @California-Los Angeles, Notre Dame, William & Mary, Boise State. It’s still a pretty good schedule, even minus Notre Dame, with the road trip to Pasadena and a visit from Boise.
  • Texas (1.25, 0): @Notre Dame, Rice, California. Accounting for the ACC and Notre Dame business, this may be the best. A road trip to South Bend, and a visit from a (hopefully) up-and-coming Pac-12 team. If Cal had been better recently, this would have rated a lot higher.
  • Nebraska (1.5, 0): Brigham Young, South Alabama, @Miami, Southern Mississippi. It’s not quite a visit to the OB, but that’s still an interesting trip.
  • Northwestern (1.25, 1): Stanford, Eastern Illinois, @Duke, Ball State. This is a big schedule for a team like Northwestern, which is generally not great but it can at least be said to try.

And now, the conference averages, though again the ACC’s rating is probably inflated by Notre Dame:

  1. ACC (0.25)
  2. Pac-12 (0.22)
  3. Big Ten (0.203)
  4. Big 12 (0.15)
  5. SEC (0.08)

And that’s that! I’m sorry it was late this year, but better late than never. Next up: Thursday and Friday’s opening slate!

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference State: SEC

The SEC is the hard-to-get conference, as they have the most desirable teams but the worst out-of-conference schedules. This never seems to come back to bite them, though…

  1. South Carolina (1.5 legit, 1): N-North Carolina, Central Florida, Citadel, Clemson. Yeah, this is what passes for the best non-conference schedule in the SEC this year. Let’s just get on with it.
  2. Florida (1, 0): New Mexico State, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Florida State. I wanted to rank this below Alabama and Tennessee because their marquee OOC game isn’t a rivalry game, but there are also, technically, no FCS teams on this schedule, so I put it ahead. (I say technically because, well, as awful as New Mexico State has been the past few years…)
  3. Alabama (1, 1): N-Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana-Monroe, Charleston Southern. The game against Wisconsin in Texas is the highlight, unless you’re in a position to buy tickets for it, apparently.
  4. Tennessee (1, 1): Bowling Green State, Oklahoma, Western Carolina, North Texas. Tennessee is the exception to the scheduling rule for the SEC most of the time, with other examples like the recent home-and-home with UCLA. Keep doing you, Vols.
  5. Auburn (0.75, 1): N-Louisville, Jacksonville State, San Jose State, Idaho. Auburn does not, as far as I can tell, currently have a game at San Jose schedules, so no “Do You Know The Way to San Jose” jokes… for now.
  6. Georgia (0.75, 1): Louisiana-Monroe, Southern, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech. Dear Fellow Georgia Tech Fans: Georgia Southern no longer runs Paul Johnson’s offense, and was probably not scheduled with the intention to prepare them for us. Thank you.
  7. Kentucky (0.75, 1.5): Louisiana-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, Charlotte, Louisville. Not many transitional teams left, but Kentucky managed to find one in Charlotte. Good job, guys.
  8. Texas A&M (0.5, 1): N-Arizona State, Ball State, Nevada, Western Carolina. I am having a hard time describing how bummed I was when I recently discovered the “A&M” in “Texas A&M” hasn’t actually stood for anything since 1963. I liked typing out “Agricultural and Mechanical”, and now it feels like it’s been taken away form me despite the fact it was always incorrect in the first place. Grr.
  9. Missouri (0.5, 1): Southeast Missouri State, @Arkansas State, Connecticut, Brigham Young. One of these days, I ought to compile a table of each team’s most played FCS teams, because I highly suspect Jacksonville State would rate highly for Auburn and SE Missouri State would rate high for Mizzou.
  10. Arkansas (0.5, 1): Texas-El Paso, Toledo, Texas Tech, Tennessee-Martin. Arkansas is playing two teams from Texas this year. I’m telling y’all, they want to go to the Big 12. (No, they really don’t.)
  11. Mississippi (0, 1): Tennessee-Martin, Fresno State, New Mexico State, @Memphis. I doubt that game in the Liberty Bowl is going to be much of a road game for the Rebels (Tennesseans essentially consider Memphis part of Mississippi anyway), but it could be interesting if the Tigers are feisty again this year.
  12. Louisiana State (0, 1): McNeese State, @Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky. Dear Les Miles: The turf in the Carrier Dome is artificial, it would probably be inadvisable to taste it. Yours Truly, asimsports.
  13. Mississippi State (0, 1): @Southern Mississippi, Northwestern State, Troy, Louisiana Tech. Fun fact: all of these schools are located latitudinally south of Starkville.
  14. Vanderbilt (0, 1): Western Kentucky, Austin Peay, @Middle Tennessee State, @Houston. I have a sinking feeling that Vandy could lose two or three of these. Should’ve figured out a way to hold on to James Franklin, I guess.

Rating the 2015 Non-Conference Slate: Pac-12

I guess I’m not surprised that the conference with a 3-way tie for first and a 4-way tie for second was the Pac-12. Or, at least, I probably shouldn’t be.

As a reminder, my tie breakers are the number of FCS teams played followed by my subjective judgement of “strength”.

  1. Utah (1 legit, 0 FCS): Michigan, Utah State, @Fresno State. I can dig this schedule. You get a home date with newly-Harbaugh’ed Michigan, and you try to withstand Fresno attempting to  extract revenge for a blowout loss last year.
  2. Stanford (1, 0): @Northwestern, Central Florida, Notre Dame. They don’t get any “legit” credit for the Wildcats, but this is still solid.
  3. Southern California (1, 0): Arkansas State, Idaho, @Notre Dame. Entirely buoyed by the visit to South Bend. Loses the tiebreaker to Stanford thanks to the Cardinal’s trip to Evanston.
  4. Oregon (1, 1): Eastern Washington, @Michigan State, Georgia State. Oregon-Michigan State should be great again, and is something we’re really looking forward to.
  5. Oregon State (1, 1): Weber State, @Michigan, San Jose State. It’s been a down few years for the Beavers, but two wins in the non-conference slate should help them back to a bowl.
  6. Arizona State (1, 1): N-Texas A&M, Cal Poly, New Mexico. I really struggled with how to do Cal Poly’s name, since my thing is typing out the full name of schools. Unfortunately, the only acceptable forms for Cal Poly are: Cal Poly, California Polytechnic State University, and California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. So I went with Cal Poly.
  7. California (1, 1): Grambling State, San Diego State, @Texas. Of course Cal manages to schedule a road game to the only Texas city that resembles Berkeley in any way, shape, or form.
  8. California-Los Angeles (0.5, 0): Virginia, @Nevada-Las Vegas, Brigham Young. Between UVA and BYU and no FCS teams, this schedule feels like it should rate better, but alas, it does not.
  9. Washington (0.5, 1): @Boise State, Sacramento State, Utah State. This is the first visit by a Pac-10/12 team to Boise since Oregon State lost there in 2010, though what I was really hoping to say in this space was that it was the first such visit since the Puchin’ LaGarrette Blount game in 2009, but alas.
  10. Washington State (0, 1): Portland State, @Rutgers, Wyoming. The visit to Piscataway seems random, but I’ll take it. Also watch out for the Wyoming uniform watch later this year.
  11. Arizona (0, 1): Texas-San Antonio, @Nevada, Northern Arizona. I started thinking that my angle for this might be Arizona being brought low with a Rece Davis “You don’t just walk in to Chris Ault Field at Mackay Stadium…” and then I remembered he’s not hosting College Football Final anymore. Alas.
  12. Colorado (0, 1): @Hawaii, Massachusetts, N-Colorado State, Nicholls State. No, Colorado, terrible teams are supposed to use that Hawaii away game at the end of the season so it’s like a bowl game! Sheesh. They did at least use it to schedule an extra game, though.