This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Georgia @ Auburn (CBS): It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry once again, but this time around, at least, I’ll be shocked if Auburn wins.
Ohio State @ Illinois (ABC): Ohio State should roll here, regardless of their QB situation.
Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN): It’s a bit of a lost season for the Gamecocks, while the Gators look ascendant.
Maryland @ Michigan State (ESPN2): I can’t conceive of how Maryland would have a chance here…
Kansas @ Texas Christian (FS1): … much less KU.
Texas @ West Virginia (ESPNU): I think these are both teams that have had ups-and-downs this season while still trying to find themselves.
Pittsburgh @ Duke (ESPNEWS): I think these teams are about even, really, but I slightly favor Duke.
North Texas @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee rolls.
Tulane @ Army (CBSS): Neither of these teams are terrible good, but I’m going with the Green Wave.
Purdue @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern should get a respite here.

12:30:

North Carolina State @ Florida State (ACC): FSU is still good enough to beat NC State, I’m pretty sure.
Virginia @ Louisville (ACC/RSN): Despite losing to them, I still don’t think UVA is very good and I wonder how Mike London is still employed. Louisville should win.

3:00: Washington @ Arizona State (Pac12): An early Pac-12 game that’s proving difficult for me to contemplate, but this may be worth keeping an eye on. Ultimately, I like the Sun Devils better.

3:30:

Alabama @ Mississippi State (CBS): I have the line on this as being Bama by 8, but despite being initially tempted to say Miss State would cover I’m now doubting it. I was in Austin last weekend, and I wound up watching most of the first half at this bar full of LSU fans. Let me tell you, they’re as celebratory of a bunch as you’d be led to believe, but the Tide absolutely owned that second half. They look pretty good.
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame (NBC): Wake should offer little resistance for the Domers.
Michigan @ Indiana (ABC/ESPN2): Even if the Wolverines were to have a bad time offensively, I don’t think it will matter much against the Hoosiers.
Clemson @ Syracuse (ABC/ESPN2): Seriously, what’s up with these 3:30 games? Clemson should roll.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech (FS1): As should Texas Tech, but K-State figures to be game, at least.
Miami @ North Carolina (ESPNU): I don’t think Miami is terrible or anything, but the Tarheels look “for realz” as the kids say.
Nebraska @ Rutgers (BTN): Again, seriously. Maybe just stick to UDub and Arizona State or something. Nebraska should have this one.

4:00: Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Ugh. While I think the top of the SEC is pretty good, the bottom is as terrible as the bottom of any other conference in the country. Despite that, Kentucky is still slightly less bad than the ‘dores.

7:00:

Memphis @ Houston (ESPN2): Honestly, this might be the most intriguing games of the week. I’m going with Houston here, but there’s no shortage of goodness here. Especially if most of the 3:30 games are runawys by the time 7:00 rolls around.
Western Carolina @ Texas A&M (ESPNU): TAMU rolls.
Temple @ South Florida (CBSS): Temple should have this one.

7:15: Arkansas @ Louisiana State (ESPN): The battle for the boot is always a good one, and hey, with LSU involved there’s always a potential for wackiness. If I’m honest, though, I don’t thin the Razorbacks have much of a chance.

7:30:

Oregon @ Stanford (FOX): Against this version of Oregon, Stanford should roll.
Tulsa @ Cincinnati (ESPNEWS): Cincy seems to be stuck. Somehow, they aren’t one of the top teams in the AAC, but they’re obviously still better than most of the other AAC teams. If I were a Bearcats fan, I’d be kind of bummed that we apparently missed getting on the good side of the conference reshuffle a few years back.
Brigham Young vs. Missouri (@Kansas City, MO; SEC): Still not convinced Mizzou can score, so going with BYU here,

8:00

Oklahoma @ Baylor (ABC): For Game of the Week honors, this edges out Memphis and Houston, but not by much. Oklahoma’s only blemish is the bizarre blowout to Texas. Baylor is unbloodied but still somewhat untested. I think they survive this test, but their trials have only just begun.
Minnesota @ Iowa (BTN): I think Iowa will go undefeated, given their schedule.

10:00: Utah @ Arizona (FS1): Despite that blowout loss to USC, the Utes still lead the Pac-12 South. I don’t see that situation changing.

10:15: New Mexico @ Boise State (ESPNU): I need to watch this to see which triple-option variant Bob Davie runs, if for no other reason. Boise should win.

10:30:

Wyoming @ San Diego State (CBSS): Aztecs all the way.
Oregon State @ California (Pac12): Cal should be able to pick themselves back up off the loss to Oregon and recover to at least go .500 against the state this year.

10:45: Washington State @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN): Wazzou may be the best ever team to lose to an FCS team. I recall the dire predictions after the Portland State loss and, at the time, it wasn’t hard to disagree. Since then, the Cougs have seeimingly done the job. I think this game, though, will show the sort of thing they’re up against, and that’s the vastly superior talent of teams like UCLA. I like the Bruins her.e

The End of an Era

Georgia Tech: 17 Consecutive Bowl Games

1997-2014

12/29/1997: Carquest Bowl @ Miami, FL, vs. West Virginia, W 35-30
1/1/1999: Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL, vs. Notre Dame, L 28-13
12/29/2000: Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA, vs. Louisiana State, L 28-14
12/27/2001: Seattle Bowl @ Seattle, WA, vs. Stanford, W 24-14
12/31/2002: Silicon Valley Bowl @ San Jose, CA, vs. Fresno State, L 30-21
1/3/2004: Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID, vs. Tulsa, W 52-10
12/21/2004: Champs Sports Bowl @ Orlando, FL, vs. Syracuse, W 51-14
12/29/2005: Emerald Bowl @ San Francisco, CA, vs. Utah, L 38-10
1/1/2007: Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL, vs. West Virginia, L 38-35
12/31/2007: Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID, vs. Fresno State, L 48-28
12/31/2008: Chick-Fil-A Bowl @ Atlanta, GA, vs. Louisiana State, L 38-3
1/5/2010: Orange Bowl @ Miami, FL, vs. Iowa, L 24-14
12/27/2010: Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA, vs. Air Force, L 14-7
12/31/2011: Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX, vs. Utah, L 30-27
12/31/2012: Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX, vs. Southern California, W 21-7
12/30/2013: Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN, vs. Mississippi, L 25-17
12/31/2014: Orange Bowl @ Miami, FL, vs. Mississippi State, W 49-34

Overall record: 6-11
Head coaches:

George O’Leary (1997-2000)
Mac McWhorter (2001, interim)
Chan Gailey (2002-2006)
Jon Tenuta (2007, interim)
Paul Johnson (2008-present)

I matriculated at Tech in the fall of 2003, so I have some memories.

2004 Humanitarian Bowl: I remember P.J. Daniels running through Tulsa over and over on the blue turf.
2004 Champs Sports Bowl: I remember ESPN interviewing Syracuse’s new athletic director as the rout was thoroughly underway. (I like to think the following happened after a reverse to Calvin Johnson went for a touchdown, but I don’t remember the exact sequence of events.) When new AD was asked about long-time but recently on relatively hard times coach Paul Pasqualoni, he hesitated. Eight days later, he fired Pasqualoni. Syracuse has gone 45-77 since.
2005 Emerald Bowl: I remember making Eric Weddle making life miserable for an otherwise completely listless Georgia Tech squad in a game played in a wonderful baseball venue (but not so much a football venue).
2007 Gator Bowl: I remember someone on a GT message board saying that the band came back from their halftime show to find… something left by a West Virginia fan.
2007 Humanitarian Bowl: I remember a terrible audition by Jon Tenuta for the main job after Gailey got fired, and a disgruntled newly-hired Paul Johnson in the stands.
2008 Chick-Fil-A Bowl: the future looked so bright going into the game, new coach, fresh off the first win over UGA since I became a fan, etc. And then LSU defensive line proved that raw talent cancels all theories.
2010 Orange Bowl: I remember the last time Iowa was good. That defense was special.
2010 Independence Bowl: I remember watching this at my brother’s apartment, mostly because I also remember that before this I forgot to set an alarm and slept for like 16 hours. I don’t remember much of the game.
2011 Sun Bowl: I don’t remember much about this game against Utah.
2012 Sun Bowl: the most hilarious game ever. Somehow Lane Kiffin would have to wait another 9 months to get fired.
2013 Music City Bowl: I remember attending this game. It was cold and we lost. After the game, my Dad and I stopped at a Buffalo Wild Wings. It was severely understaffed and were stuck there for like an hour and a half.
2014 Orange Bowl: I watched this game with my brother and parents at his house. It didn’t really occurred to any of us, I don’t think, how badly Georgia Tech was dominating this game until sometime late in the third quarter.

More on what this means for the future later. But for now, I’m not worried, and I’m not panicked.

2018 World Cup Update: For the US, It Begins!

Yes that’s right folks, this Friday the United States will begin qualifying for a tournament that is still two and a half years away. Why? Well, that mostly because FIFA eliminated the February international dates in their calendar.

Let’s do a quick whip-around and checkout what’s been going on where, eh?

AFC
Asia is in the midst of its second round of qualifying, featuring seven groups of five and one group of four. Each group will play again this month and then in March to determine the winners. The winner of each group advances to the third round, and the four best runners-up advance as well.

So far, we’ve got a minor upset in Group B, with Australia trailing Jordan by a point. The Socceroos lost 2-0 to Jordan back on October, but they’ll get a chance again on the last matchday back on home soil in March.

Right now, Qatar is in control of Group C, but I would still be tickled if Hong Kong finishes ahead of China.

Most of the other groups currently contain no big surprises or anything, so we’ll revisit these guys in March.

CAF
Africa is currently in its second round, which pits 40 teams in home-and-away matches to determine who advances to the third round. Most of the ties haven’t gotten underway yet, so there’s not much to report. We’ll know the all the results by Wednesday, though!

CONCACAF
For North American, the fourth round is about to begin. Let’s go over each group.

Group A
This figures to be a pretty intense group. Mexico has a new coach, Honduras have made two straight World Cups, El Salvador are always tough, and Canada is trying to get to the same level as its continental neighbors. The first two would have to be the favorites, though.

Group B
Costa Rica were the darlings of the World Cup last year, Panama was just on the cusp of making it in 2014, and Haiti and Jamaica were the darlings of this summer’s Gold Cup. If I had to pick two to come out of this group, I’d probably go with Costa Rica and Jamaica.

Group C
The US drew by far the easiest group. We’re sharing the group the with Trinidad and Tobago, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guatemala. St. Vincent and the Grenadines sounds like it’d be a good name for a 50’s band more than anything else. Guatemala concerns me mostly because having to play a match in those Central American venues is always concerning. Trinidad and Tobago is the best team out of this group, and of course the US has some history with them as well (having knocked them out of contention of the 1990 World Cup). It should be instructive, if nothing else.

CONMEBOL
South America’s grand qualification tournament has begun, and so far it’s a doozy. Right now the big news is that Argentina only got one point of their first two games, and will still lack Messi for this month’s games. If you can, try to find Argentina-Brazil tonight.

OFC
Not much has happened in Oceania since the last time we went over this, since their next round doesn’t start until May.

UEFA
Europe doesn’t begin qualifying until next September.

That’s it for now! Since there won’t be any more action until March after this, I may do a postmortem, but we’ll see!

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 4

They’re late but they’re here.

First, let’s start with the “Not Enough Teams” watch. This time around, I’ve got 78 teams for 80 slots. I will say that I tried to be a bit more optimistic this time around, and well having more data always helps. I’m naturally not a very optimistic person, but if I had to guess, I think we’re going to make it.

I’ll do my first breakdown of the year.

Playoff
I went with Clemson, Baylor, Alabama, and Ohio State in that order. I would say my jilted team in this case would the winner of the Notre Dame/Stanford game, assuming they win out otherwise. We’ve still got plenty of season to go, though. It’s entirely possible the Big 12’s round-robin schedule will eat its own children again, or Ohio State losing to Michigan State.

The last slot of the playoff controlled bowls was probably the toughest, though. I went back and modified my predictions so that I had Utah beating UCLA and wining the Pac-12 South, which allowed me to slot them into the Fiesta Bowl. The winner of the American is probably still on the fast-track to the Group of Five slot, though the question is if it’ll be Houston or Navy, I’d think. Otherwise, I don’t think my picks are controversial at this point.

ACC
I have North Carolina winning the Coastal, but I don’t think a two-loss UNC (one current loss plus a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game) is going to get into a CFP-controlled bowl. Otherwise, the picks proceed apace. I have Virginia Tech edging into a bowl on the back of a Frank Beamer farewell tour, even if that means a return to the Military Bowl for a second straight year. Coach-less and 7-5 Miami get sent to Detroit.

Big 12
With TCU’s loss to Oklahoma State, I have them taking a loss to Baylor. I’m not sure a two loss TCU makes it into the CFP-controlled bowls. I don’t think Oklahoma is going to fare well in their backloaded schedule, either. I have Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia finishing 6-6. Kansas State figures to just miss out.

Big Ten
Michigan State’s shock loss to Nebraska removes them from CFP-bowl contention, while not really doing much for Nebraska’s own bowl prospects, so that has to be a bummer for the Big Ten. In fact, I don’t have the Big Ten west faring well as a whole, with that sixth win likely eluding Illinois as well as Nebraska and Minnesota.

Pac-12
The Pac-12 is doing its part, especially with probably the best ever team to lose to a FCS team, Washington State, likely to finish 8-4 at this point. (Seriously, who saw that coming back in September?)

SEC
The SEC figures to be the only conference to get three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls, but the drop off does seem pretty stark after Alabama, LSU, and Florida. The best of the bunch seems to be a 9-3 Georgia. (Yeah.) But hey, I did manage to set up a Texas-Texas A&M matchup in the Texas Bowl. (Seriously, it’s just too perfect, which is probably why it won’t happen. But seriously, the Texas Bowl! Come on!)

Group of Five
As I said earlier, the winner of Houston-Navy figures to have the best shot at the Group of Five slot, followed by Temple probably. Undefeated Toledo may have had a shot, but that likely slipped away.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): This game is vastly more interesting than anyone would’ve predicted back in August, I’d say. That said, having watched both these teams play my team, I’m going with the Domers all the way.
Vanderbilt @ Florida (ESPN): As James Earl Jones intoned when the Red October purposely steered into the path of that torpedo, “Mother of God”.
Duke @ North Carolina (ESPN2): This might be the most important edition of this rivalry to ever be played on natural grass. Again, having played (and lost to!) both these teams, I have to go with Carolina.
Texas Tech @ West Virginia (FS1): It’s not just the top of the Big 12 that’s a puzzle right now, it’s also the middle-to-bottom. That said, Texas Tech has generally acquitted themselves better over the Big 12 schedule and look primed to take this one.
Pennsylvania State @ Northwestern (ESPNU): Don’t look, but Penn State is 7-2. Actually, go ahead and take a look now because those seven wins are over nobodies and the schedule is horribly backloaded, with the Wildcats being the tip of the spear, followed by Michigan and Michigan State. 7-2 looks like it’s about to become 7-5.
Central Florida @ Tulsa (ESPNEWS): Central Florida continues their quest to be one of the most historically awful teams ever and look primed to lose to Tulsa.
Kentucky @ Georgia (SEC): I don’t buy the crisis over in Athens. I just don’t. Lots of teams having down years that are worse than UGA’s, and besides, it’s not like they had a quarterback. Things look to be on the upswing starting here.
Illinois @ Purdue (BTN): Yeah, so it turns out that Illinois is as bad as we all thought, it just took a while for them to realize it as well. Yeah, that’s right, I’m going to take a 2-6 team over a 4-4 team, and there’s nothing you can do to stop me!
Akron @ Massachusetts (CBSS): Akron will zip into the end zone early and often in this one.

12:30:

North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACC): While BC’s defense is legitimately stingy, they’re just screwed if anyone can score, like, 10 points against them. Which NC State probably will.
Syracuse @ Louisville (ACC): While I don’t think they’re going to win, I think the ‘Cuse have generally exceeded expectations this year.

1:00: Stanford @ Colorado (Pac12): I feel like Stanford’s offense is probably best described through a series of onomatopoeia. Words like “pow!”, “bam!”, etc.

3:00: Virginia @ Miami (ACC/RSN): I refuse to believe Miami will lose this game. I won’t accept it. Though it’s odd that Virginia will play two teams in a row coming off miracle, last-second wins. Perhaps they’ll get two let-downs in a row?

3:30:

Florida State @ Clemson (ABC): I have zero problems with Clemson being #1 in the meaningless first edition of the college playoff rankings. For starters, they’re meaningless at this point. Also, I think Clemson really is that good. FSU is good, but they have a lot of issues, especially on their offensive line. Unlike us, Clemson’s defensive line doesn’t need to have the game of their lives, they just need to have a normal day at the office and they should be able to shut FSU down.
Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FOX): Oklahoma State is undefeated, but it seems a flimsy sort of undefeated, as though it shouldn’t really count. I’ve got TCU all the way here.
Arkansas @ Mississippi (CBS): After a two game respite, it’s back to the grind for Bert and company. By which I mean they’re going to lose badly.
Iowa @ Indiana (ESPN): Iowa is also a puzzling undefeated team, but they remain safe for now.
Cincinnati @ Houston (ESPN2): Speaking of undefeated teams, this could be a really fun undercard. I like Houston here.
Arizona State @ Washington State (FS1): I’m going with Wazzou because, well, why the hell not?
Army @ Air Force (ESPNU): I’m going to go ahead and say that Army does not look like a huge favorite to regain the Command-in-Chief’s trophy this year.
Utah State @ New Mexico (CBSS): The Lobos are actually not awful this year, but these Aggies are still better.
Rutgers @ Michigan (BTN): Michigan rolls.

4:00:

Connecticut @ Temple (ESPNEWS): Temple vs. Memphis is in two weeks, don’t screw it up, Owls.
South Carolina @ Tennessee (SEC): Two programs, opposite directions. The Vols look good in this one.

4:30: California-Los Angeles @ Oregon State (Pac12): It’s been a frustrating year for Bruin fans, but this game and their next look very winnable, and they still have a pretty good shot at the Pac-12 South title.