Rating the 2024 Non-Conference Slate

Well, better almost late than never, right?

About the Ratings

Each offseason, my brother and I rate every Power 5 team on the basis of how excited you’d be to see that team on your non-conference schedule. The possible ratings are “no rating”, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. “1” is the best, as evidenced by the list of 20 teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin.

How does each conference fare in terms of the ratings? Well, let’s see:

  1. SEC (0.61)
  2. Big Ten (0.43)
  3. ACC (0.41)
  4. Big 12 (0.375)

That’s mostly what you’d expect, except for maybe the ACC there. At any rate, let’s dive right into the teams.

Atlantic Coast

  1. Florida State (2 legit, 1 FCS): Memphis, @Notre Dame, Charleston Southern, Florida. FSU leads the way, though it’s through a traditional rival, a mandatory game against the Irish, and then… well, an intriguing game with Memphis. This team has gone through a lot this offseason, and that’s not even getting into any of the off-the-field stuff, so it’ll be an interesting trek for the ACC favorites.
  2. Georgia Tech (2, 1): Georgia State, Virginia Military, N-Notre Dame, @Georgia. Well, we’re competent again. But can we win more than two games against this schedule? We’ll see.
  3. Louisville (1.5, 1): Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, @Notre Dame, @Kentucky. Once again, mostly buoyed by some traditional and mandatory rivals.
  4. Clemson (1.25, 1): N-Georgia, Appalachian State, Citadel, South Carolina. Clemson-Georgia is, of course, one of the games of the year in September. A lot will ride on it, but we’ll talk about that more in our Week 1 write-up.
  5. California (1.25, 1): California-Davis, @Auburn, San Diego State, Oregon State. They’re playing at Auburn, of course this is an east coast team!
  6. North Carolina State (1, 1): Western Carolina, N-Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois. NC State-Tennessee isn’t really anywhere interesting, it’s just at the NFL stadium in Charlotte.
  7. Pittsburgh (1, 1): Kent State, @Cincinnati, West Virginia, Youngstown State. The Brawl is back once again, and I also like getting Cincy in for some Ohio Valley spice. This is a solid regional schedule.
  8. Miami (1, 1): @Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State, @South Florida. The Canes get the Gators back on the schedule, which we love to see. The game at USF is a bit of an odd duck, but we suppose the Canes don’t mind going to Tampa.
  9. Virginia (1, 1): Richmond, Maryland, @Coastal Carolina, @Notre Dame. While ACC teams don’t have a lot of control with regards to playing Notre Dame, we find the game at Coastal to be a bit odd. Luckily for the Hoos, that’s not nearly as daunting of a prospect with most of the Coastal braintrust on to greener (though less teal) pastures. Also funny that Maryland is counted as an out-of-conference game, but then again NC State and UNC played a couple of years ago for the same reason, so it’s not unprecedented.
  10. Stanford (1, 1): Texas Christian, California Polytechnic, @Notre Dame, @San Jose State. It’s sort of funny that the shortest road trip in the conference is all the way out here. Also sort of funny that Stanford is going down to San Jose while that stadium is still a construction zone.
  11. Boston College (0.75, 1): Duquense, @Missouri, Michigan State, Western Kentucky. While not highly rated, this BC slate does have multiple other Big 4 teams on. Unfortunately for the Eagles, we figure that WKU may be more of a contest than the games against the Tigers and Spartans.
  12. Wake Forest (0.75, 1): North Carolina A&T, Mississippi, Louisiana, @Connecticut. Wake gets Ole Miss to head to Winston-Salem, though they also have a trip up north as well. A lot of ACC teams deciding to take the road game for their 2-for-1s this year, we guess.
  13. Southern Methodist (0.75, 1): @Nevada, Houston Christian, Brigham Young, Texas Christian. A perfectly functional OOC schedule for… oh, right. Well, at least the TCU-SMU cross-town rivalry is still on the docket, for now.
  14. North Carolina (0.25, 1): @Minnesota, Charlotte, North Carolina Central, James Madison. So this is a super-regional schedule… outside of the trip to Minneapolis. I mean, we always encourage inter-sectional matchups here, and Carolina has one on the schedule, so we’re not hating, per se. Besides, Carolina has bigger problems, like figuring out how to beat us.
  15. Virginia Tech (0, 0): @Vanderbilt, Marshall, @Old Dominion, Rutgers. This is how to get both a Big Ten and SEC teams on our schedule in the most technical way possible. And again, a G5 away game!
  16. Duke (0, 1): Elon, @Northwestern, Connecticut, @Middle Tennessee State. Obligatory note about how Duke-UConn would probably be a better basketball game.
  17. Syracuse (0, 1): Ohio, Holy Cross, @Nevada-Las Vegas, Connecticut. Okay, with the Orange’s trip out to Vegas, let’s count up how many G5 away games the ACC has as a conference. Yeah, that’s 8 different games! I guess now there won’t be a lot in the next few years? Either way, there’s some interesting scheduling here for sure.

Big Ten

  1. Southern California (2, 0): N-Louisiana State, Utah State, Notre Dame. As usual, USC plays one of the more interesting OOC schedules in the country. Given that Notre Dame is a yearly rival for them, they don’t really need to play another power-conference team, and yet, here they are.
  2. Purdue (1.25, 1): Indiana State, Notre Dame, @Oregon State. Purdue and Notre Dame don’t play a lot, so that’s cool to see. We also appreciate the trip out west for the Boilermakers.
  3. Michigan (1, 0): Fresno State, Texas, Arkansas State. Michigan also usually does a good job with OOC schedules, and this one has what should be a banger against Texas. I don’t think Fresno will have much of a chance in the Big House, but it’s certainly a more interesting pick than a MAC or FCS team.
  4. California-Los Angeles (1, 0): @Hawaii, @Louisiana State, Fresno State. It seems like in the future UCLA’s schedule will become more Big Ten-like, which is to say they’ll play all their out-of-conference games in September before conference play starts. For now, though, they’ll play LSU after playing Indiana and Fresno at the end of the season before being fully absorbed into the Borg Collective that is now the Big Ten.
  5. Wisconsin (1, 1): Western Michigan, South Dakota, Alabama. I hope Alabama goes up to Madison, has a nice time in what should be a perfectly comfortable Midwestern summer, and then forgets why they’re there.
  6. Nebraska (0.5, 1): Texas-El Paso, Colorado, Northern Iowa. Unfortunately, this is it for the Nebraska-Colorado revival, and the next time the Huskers have an interesting OOC slate will be when they play a home-and-home with Oklahoma in 2029 and 2030.
  7. Oregon (0.5, 1): Idaho, Boise State, @Oregon State. There’s some exceptions in the future, but I think it’s going to be a fairly Pacific Northwest focused OOC schedule for the Ducks going forward. Hopefully they figure how to keep the Civil War going. Right now it’s only planned for the next two seasons.
  8. Minnesota (0.5, 1): North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada. This is a perfectly functional OOC schedule. We disagree somewhat on UNC’s rating, but I do view them as one of the premier ACC teams. And it’s three home games! A win all around for the Gophers.
  9. Pennsylvania State (0.25, 0): @West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State. Love to see the regional action against the ‘Neers, other wise, er, not much to see here.
  10. Maryland (0.25, 1): Connecticut, @Virginia, Villanova. Yes, I know Maryland is not in the ACC, but on a lot of days that’s harder to remember than the other moves that just took effect this season.
  11. Rutgers (0.25, 1): Howard, Akron, @Virginia Tech. In future editions, VPI might notch a higher rating, but for now that puts Rutgers in the back half of this field.
  12. Iowa (0.25, 1): Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy. Iowa is one of the more… interesting teams this season. Last season, of course, was marked by the Drive for 25, Brian Ferentz’s quixotic venture to keep his job as Iowa’s offensive coordinator. Naturally, the funniest outcome will be if they score less than 75 points against these three.
  13. Washington (0, 1): Weber State, Eastern Michigan, N-Washington State. The prospects for the Apple Cup continuing seem better, at least.
  14. Michigan State (0, 1): Florida Atlantic, Prairie View A&M, @Boston College. I tried to imagine how to say “Sparty” in a Southie accent and decided that I maybe didn’t want to know.
  15. Illinois (0, 1): Eastern Illinois, Kansas, Central Michigan. Oh man Illinois could definitely lose to this Kansas team at home.
  16. Ohio State (0, 0): Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall. This is very much a schedule by the Buckeyes that says “yeah, if we go anywhere from 12-0 to 10-2 we’re in the college football playoff, our schedule doesn’t matter.” In fairness, I’ll note that they have Texas, Alabama, and Georgia on future schedules.
  17. Northwestern (0, 1): Miami, Duke, Eastern Illinois. The main to try to find these games at all on TV is to see the Wildcats’ temporary lake-side stadium.
  18. Indiana (0, 1): Florida International, Western Illinois, Charlotte. Well, if nothing else, this OOC schedule will probably get the Hoosiers a third of the way to 9Windiana(tm).

Big 12

  1. West Virginia (1.25, 1): Pennsylvania State, Albany, @Pittsburgh. As usual, we wholly endorse the return of the Backyard Brawl, and the general regional nature of this schedule for a school that’s increasingly an outlier in the new Big 12.
  2. Houston (1, 0): Nevada-Las Vegas, @Oklahoma, Rice. UNLV is a non-factor, and there would definitely be more interesting years for Houston to roll into Norman, but this could still be fun.
  3. Baylor (1, 1): Tarlteton State, @Utah, Air Force. This won’t be the first time we’ll see a Big 12 team’s OOC game against a Pac-12 team still show up as an OOC game.
  4. Central Florida (1, 1): New Hampshire, Sam Houston State, @Florida. I don’t think UCF will give Florida much of a game, but, well, you never know…
  5. Iowa State (0.75, 1): North Dakota, @Iowa, Arkansas State. Outside of the usual “why would you play one of the Big Sky powers on purpose?!?” not much going on here outside of the rivalry game.
  6. Utah (0.5, 1): Southern Utah, Baylor, @Utah State. And, to wit, here’s the other side of two sudden conference-mates thrown together.
  7. Arizona (0.5, 1): New Mexico, Northern Arizona, @Kansas State. And again!
  8. Colorado (0.25, 1): North Dakota State, @Nebraska, @Colorado State. Honestly, Colorado heading back to the Big 12 feels sort of spiritually correct, unfortunately, I don’t think Oklahoma, Missouri, and Nebraska are going to get the memo. Also unfortunately the Colorado State rivalry is going to take a break after this season until 2028, and the Buffs won’t get any of their wayward Big 8 rivals back on the schedule until when Mizzou rolls into Boulder in 2030.
  9. Kansas State (0.25, 1): Tennessee-Martin, @Tulane, Arizona. And again again!
  10. Cincinnati (0.25, 1): Towson, Pittsburgh, @Miami (OH). Why is Cincy heading to a MAC school? Well, that’s a rivalry that dates to a 0-0 tie in Miami back in 1888. They’ve played every year since 1909 (except 2020). Suffice it to say, the Bearcats have dominated in recent decades, but Miami did tie the series at 60-60-7 with an upset last season. This will be the first time since 2017 the Bearcats will travel to Miami. Can the Redhawks make it it two in a row? I will I just copy and paste this in a few weeks? We’ll see!
  11. Oklahoma State (0.25, 1): South Dakota State, Arkansas, @Tulsa. Again, what makes you think scheduling a Big Sky school is a good idea? We assume that going to Tulsa is a 3-for-1 thing.
  12. Texas Christian (0.25, 1): @Stanford, Long Island, @Southern Methodist. Huh, TCU is really loading up on ACC teams for some reason.
  13. Arizona State (0, 0): Wyoming, Mississippi State, @Texas State. This is about as difficult of a schedule as you can have and get 0 OOC points for it. The Cowboys are always plucky and Miss State might be the most random number generator team you can get out of the SEC. And then you go on the road to the closest thing they’ve had to a buzzy team in San Marcos since they moved to FBS? Best of luck, Sun Devils.
  14. Kansas (0, 1): Lindenwood, @Illinois, Nevada-Las Vegas. The folks in Urbana-Champaign are going to be blown away by this offense.
  15. Texas Tech (0, 1): Abilene Christian, @Washington State, North Texas. Texas Tech going to Pullman feels like a commitment by the two schools often referred to by outside commentators as being “on the moon” to play an OOC series.
  16. Brigham Young (0, 1): Southern Illinois, @Southern Methodist, @Wyoming. Perhaps the best thing about BYU’s schedule is a game that doesn’t appear here: the Holy War is finally a permanent conference rivalry game again. That’s a downright rare win for conference realignment. Otherwise, this one’s kinda weird, perhaps it’s still some artifacts of BYU’s time as an independent washing out of the schedule.

Pac-12

  1. Washington State (1, 1): Portland State, Texas Tech, N-Washington. So you might be wondering how we decided what to do with the remainder of the Pac-12. It’s a tad awkward. In essence, I counted the Mountain West teams and the games against each other as conference games. That said, there’s some difficultly here because I checked and Wazzu here originally had San Diego State and San Jose State in their non-conference schedule. Those games were moved around with the new arrangement, so I’m not sure if there’s a way to say if one of them is still “non-conference” or not. So Wazzu has three “non-conference” games and Oregon State has four. That’s just the only sane way I could do it. Also, because I actually rank the schedules by the average, which means that Wazzu’s .3333 average just beats out Oregon State’s 0.3125 average. Which is a tad unfair given Oregon State’s schedule is more difficult, but such is life.
  2. Oregon State (1.25, 1): Idaho State, Oregon, Purdue, @California. The Beavers, as noted above, definitely have a more difficult schedule, at least in the OOC framework. The main question for these teams is if they can maintain the level of relevance that we even rate their schedule. It’s one of the most unfair things I can think of in sports, especially for the Beavers. Wazzu is a truly rural ag school in far eastern Washington. Corvallis is the all of 50 minute drive up I-5 from Eugene. The only real difference between Oregon State and their brothers down the road is that the guy who founded Nike went to college there. I don’t really know what the answer is, though. I doubt the Big 12 is calling (especially since they seem to have decided to reach out to UConn first). The ACC already took the two west coast schools it perceived as valuable. I’m half convinced that if the sport survives the next decades, the mega-conferences may go the way of the mega-conferences of the first century of the sports’ history, that is, they collapse under their own weight. After all, today’s SEC and ACC can trace their own roots to the Southern Conference.

SEC

  1. Florida (2.5, 1): Miami, Samford, Central Florida, @Florida State. Somehow the Gators couldn’t find a Florida-based FCS team to play instead of Samford, but other than that, the continued commitment to the “never travels out of the state” bit is remarkable. That said, this schedule has some high sickos potential with both Miami and UCF on here. I can definitely dig it.
  2. Louisiana State (2, 1): N-Southern California, Nicholls State, California-Los Angeles, South Alabama. LSU is really trying to put the “LA” in “Louisiana”, we suppose. You’ve got the requisite Louisiana based school: check. You’ve got two of the universities most closely associated with Los Angeles: check. And… this is a bit of a stretch for sure, but if you consider South Alabama being from “Lower Alabama”, that’s four LA schools!
  3. Georgia (1.25, 1): N-Clemson, Tennessee Tech, Massachusetts, Georgia Tech. It’s incredible that when we finally don’t play Clemson for the first time since 1982 Georgia finally plays them again. Great, fantastic.
  4. Texas (1, 0): Colorado State, @Michigan, Texas-San Antonio, Louisiana-Monroe. So, this could be wrong, but we’ve been doing this OOC review thing here for a long time. Since 2007! That’s really wild for me to think about, honestly, but that’s beside the point. I just checked the archives, and yeah, this is the first time since Vanderbilt’s 2010 season that an SEC team does not have a FCS/DI-AA team on the schedule. (A look further back to 2007 indicates that Tennessee also was late to the SEC-SoCon challenge party.) And, at least as of this writing, the Longhorns don’t have one on their schedule, though they still need to fill things out in 2026 and beyond. (Unless, of course, the SEC finally goes to nine conference games.)
  5. Texas A&M (1, 1): Notre Dame, McNeese State, Bowling Green, New Mexico State. A&M welcomes the Irish to Kyle Field, but yeah, otherwise not much to see here.
  6. Alabama (1, 1): Western Kentucky, South Florida, @Wisconsin, Mercer. It’s the start of a new era in Tuscaloosa, and with that, this is a pretty manageable schedule except for the trip to the Midwest. Hopefully it goes as I described it earlier.
  7. South Carolina (1, 1): Old Dominion, Akron, Wofford, @Clemson. We’re rapidly ranging out of the “anything to see here?” portion of the SEC OOC schedule.
  8. Arkansas (0.75, 1): Arkansas-Pine Bluff, @Oklahoma State, Alabama-Birmingham, Louisiana Tech. We like Arkansas playing opponents to their west, and that may be interesting, but otherwise not much here.
  9. Oklahoma (0.75, 1): Temple, Houston, Tulane, Maine. Unlike their Red River rivals, the Sooners are sliding into a very SEC schedule (though it is funny they’ll still play Houston).
  10. Tennessee (0.5, 1): Tennessee-Chattanooga, N-North Carolina State, Kent State, Texas-El Paso. The Vols have the NC State game I’ve already talked about, and then otherwise a bunch of teams they’ll probably put up a bunch on.
  11. Vanderbilt (0.25, 1): Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, @Georgia State, Ball State. This is certainly a Vandy schedule, including the part where they’re going to Atlanta.
  12. Mississippi (0.25, 1): Furman, Middle Tennessee State, @Wake Forest, Georgia Southern. I don’t think Ole Miss has a lot to worry about with this OOC slate, at any rate, this won’t be a hindrance to their playoff ambitions.
  13. Mississippi State (0, 1): Eastern Kentucky, @Arizona State, Toledo, Massachusetts. I don’t think Miss State has any playoff ambitions, per se, but again, like their cousins this doesn’t present any obstacles.
  14. Auburn (0, 1): Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico, Louisiana-Monroe. Auburn doesn’t play New Mexico State this year, but to Hugh Freeze’s chagrin, he’s not going to be able to dodge Diego Pavia this year, either.
  15. Missouri (0, 1): Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College, @Massachusetts. See below.
  16. Kentucky (0, 1): Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Murray State, Louisville. Er, not much to see here.

So, finally, here’s the breakdown of OOC awesomeness by conference:

  1. Pac-12 (0.33)
  2. ACC (0.228)
  3. SEC (0.19)
  4. Big Ten (0.162)
  5. Big 12 (0.15)

I suspect the ACC is benefiting a bit from the ACC-SEC rivalries, and the Pac-12 is mostly benefiting from having 2 teams. Regardless, the new college football season is upon is, and without any further adieu, I’d really like to get to the Week 1 previews. Onward!

This Weekend in College Football: Week 0

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (@Dublin, Ireland; ESPN): Okay, here we go. So, for starters, I am doing the OOC preview, but it’ll come out next week. I just simply didn’t have time to get it done now. Anyway, the game! So I was recently on a trip that took me to this part of Europe, and I have to say… that doesn’t provide me with any particular insight into this game. I’m not especially optimistic, but I am pretty sure we’re not going to get blown out. I think that counts for something, given where we’ve been the past few years. I’ll type the rest of this out quickly because I’d like to be awake for this game, so if you don’t mind…

3:30: McNeese State @ Tarleton State (ESPN2)

4:00: Montana State @ New Mexico (FS1)

7:00: North Alabama @ Southeast Missouri State (FCS Kickoff Classic @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN)

7:30: Florida A&M vs. Norfolk State (MEAC/SWAC Challenge @ Atlanta, GA; ABC)

8:00: Southern Methodist @ Nevada (CBSS): In the other FBS vs. FBS matchup of the day, new ACC member SMU heads to Reno, where they should win handily.

Midnight: Delaware State @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

 

Bowl Games 2023: Epilogue

The final bowl page is up. I went 22-21 overall, getting somewhat bailed out by correctly calling the playoff. If you check the index, I took a slight hit to the overall winning percentage, but hey, I’m still better than random.

I just watched the entirety of the game and suffice to say the “Michigan just out-musceled them on the lines” prediction was correct. Penix was just never comfortable and eventually it just got to be took much, even after Washington adjusted and was able to slow down Michigan a bit after the first quarter. I really don’t think any of this takes anything away from what the Huskies did, after all, this is their first loss.

And with that, we enter offseason mode here. It was a fun season. The sport is changing rapidly, and as we enter the super-conference future, it can be easy to say that nothing will ever be the same. But in the same way that the ACC Coastal didn’t really disappear, Pac-12 After Dark will continue, and it’ll still be college football. (At least for now.)

Bowl Games 2023: Final

The bowl page is fully up-to-date. It hasn’t been a great year for me, but I did get the playoff picks right. Let’s see if I get the last one.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 8

4:30: Michigan vs. Washington (College Football Playoff National Championship @ Houston, TX; ESPN): I have put off this preview for a bit. I think Michigan will win. That said, I keep going back and forth on why. The obvious reasons are that their line play should win the day. Then I remember that there’s a few teams in recent memory, like say 2019 LSU or 2021 Alabama, that won titles based entirely on superior, elite level quarterback play. Suffice it to say, if there’s a team that’s going to do that tonight, it’s the team that has Micheal Penix Jr. at quarterback. The throws I saw him back in the Sugar Bowl were literally next level. That said, while this Washington team is undefeated there were some games where Penix looked very, very mortal. Then again, Michigan was able to skate through a lot of the season, but was that because they were that superior or because the schedule was easy? I’m still not sure. So here we are. Despite the lines, the figures, the facts, I think this will be a fascinating game. On the eve where college football figures to change forever, I think it’s very, very cool the teams involved are from Michigan and Washington. Let’s enjoy what will almost certainly be a moment in history.
SP+ line: Michigan -8.5
Vegas line: Michigan -5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams have met a total of thirteen times. The first was a 50-0 Michigan win in 1953, and that’s more or less how the other three early meetings in 1954, 1969, and 1970 went. The next two meetings would be in Rose Bowls: Washington notched their first win in the series in the 1977-78 Rose Bowl, 27-20. Three years later they met once again in Pasadena, where Michigan won 23-6. Jim Harbaugh was on the Michigan teams that played and lost to Washington in 1983 and 1984. He started the latter game and didn’t play well, going 17 for 37 passing with three interceptions in the 20-11 loss. The teams met in consecutive Rose Bowls in the 1991 and 1992 seasons, which was also the last time both of these teams were among the best in the sport. In the 1991-92 game, Washington came into the game ranked 2nd in the AP Poll and 1st in the Coaches Poll, which Michigan was 4th and 3rd (respectively). Even with Heisman winner Desmond Howard, the Wolverines lost 34-14 and Washington remained 1st in the Coaches Poll. With Miami’s 22-0 win over Nebraska, this sealed a split national title for the second season in a row. The next season, Elvis Grbac and the 7th ranked Wolverines got a touchdown in the 4th quarter to pull ahead and defeat Mark Brunell and the Huskies 38-31. Since then, the two have only met in the regular season. Washington’s last came game via 23-18 win in 2001. A year later, the return visit to Ann Arbor saw the home team win 31-29. Finally, they met two seasons ago in Ann Arbor and Michigan won 31-10. (Presumably, the return visit to Seattle was nullified by Washington joining the Big Ten.) Overall, Michigan has an 8-5 series lead.
Last bowl game: Michigan advanced to this game with a 27-20 overtime defeat of Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Washington hung on to beat Texas 37-31 in the Sugar Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Molly McGrath

Bowl Games 2023: Happy New Year!

Updates will be posted to the bowl page soon. In the meantime, here’s the last batch of previews.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 30

Noon: Pennsylvania State vs. Mississippi (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): For whatever reason, I still strongly associate the Peach Bowl with New Year’s Eve, and it still throws me a bit when it kicks off at noon Eastern. With regards to this game, I think Penn State is still a good team. The offense struggles, yes, but ultimately they occupy a relatively unique tier wherein, yes, they’re not as good as the elite teams in their conference, but they’re clearly better than everyone else. Ole Miss fancies that they’re like that, but for the SEC, but I don’t think they’re quite at Penn State’s level yet.
SP+ line: Nittany Lions -10
Vegas line: Nittany Lions -3.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Penn State’s third bowl game in a row. They lost 24-10 to Arkansas in the 2021-22 Outback bowl, and beat Utah 35-21 in the 2022-23 Rose Bowl. This will be the fourth in a row for Ole Miss, dating to a 26-20 win over Indiana in the 2020-21 Outback Bowl. Last season they lost 42-25 to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Louis Riddick, and Quint Kessenich

2:00: Maryland vs. Auburn (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ABC): I am having a very time getting excited for this one. Mostly because both of these teams had super weird seasons. We talked about September Maryland a bit on this site, but I think I still like them over a team that should’ve won their one-game season back on Thanksgiving weekend.
SP+ line: Terps -1.1
Vegas line: Tigers -2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Three, but it’s been a while. The first was a 13-7 Maryland win in 1952. The most recent was a 35-23 Auburn win in 1983, which broke the tie to give the Tigers a 2-1 advantage.
Last bowl game: For the Terps, this is their third in a row. They beat Virginia Tech 54-10 in the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl. Last season, they beat NC State 16-12 in the Mayo Bowl. Auburn last made a bowl game in 2021, losing 17-13 to Houston in the Birmingham Bowl.
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, and Alyssa Lang

4:00: Florida State vs. Georgia (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): I like this broadcast crew as much as anyone, but the incredible levels of awkwardness that are likely going to be generated by the inevitable conflict that arises from ESPN both making news and reporting news, well, I’m not looking forward to it. (And no, I am suggesting the Playoff Committee is in ESPN’s pocket, but were they sequestered from all media suggestions a 1-loss Bama should get in over an undefeated FSU? I don’t know.) So here it. There’s a raft of transfers and opt-outs. Neither team will be at full strength. But if FSU wins and goes 14-0, and they should totally claim a title. And I think they will.
SP+ line: UGA -5.8
Vegas line: UGA -14
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met eleven times, though all but two occurred in 1965 or earlier. The series started with a 5 straight Georgia wins, beginning with a 14-0 win in 1954. FSU reversed that trend and won 4 straight from 1961-65, but the series then went dormant. They met a for a 17-17 tie in the 1984 Citrus Bowl. Their most recent match was a 26-13 Georgia win in the 2002-03 Sugar Bowl, giving them a a 6-4-1 overall record.
Last bowl game: FSU beat Oklahoma 35-32 in last season’s Cheez-It Bowl. Much to my chagrin, Georgia owns the longest active bowl streak in the country. Their streak started with a 33-6 win over Wisconsin in the 1997-98 Outback Bowl, meaning it’s all the way up to 27 games now. Last season, they escaped Ohio State 42-41 in the Peach Bowl and took care of TCU 65-7 in the CFP Championship Game.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George

4:30: Toledo vs. Wyoming (Arizona Bowl @ Tucson, AZ; The CW): I can’t think of a game that’s more of a polar opposite to the Orange Bowl than this one. But hey, at least it’ll give you something to put on during halftime. That said, there’s a little bit to talk about here. For starters, this is finally the season Toledo put it all together. Wyoming isn’t good… but they seem to be able to win games somehow. It could be fun, and it may be worth a look.
SP+ line: Rockets -7.8
Vegas line: Pokes -3
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just two: a 20-15 Wyoming win in 2010, and then a 34-31 Toledo win in 2012.
Last bowl game: The Rockets have made three bowls in a row. In 2021 they lost 31-24 to MTSU in the Bahamas Bowl, and beat Liberty 21-19 in last season’s Boca Raton Bowl. The Mountain Pokes have made three in a row. In 2021 they beat Kent State 52-38 in the Potato Bowl, and last season they lost 30-27 to Ohio in this very game.
Announcers: Jake Marsh, Dave Portnoy, Dan Katz, Caleb Pressley and Adam Ferrone

Monday, January 1

Noon: Wisconsin vs. Louisiana State (ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN2): LSU is all offense and no defense. Fortunately for them, Wisconsin is still figuring some things out. I have no idea if Jayden Daniels is playing, but either way, this figures to be a win for the Tigers.
SP+ line: Tigahs -8.8
Vegas line: Tigahs -11
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met 4 times: a home-and-home in 1971 and 1972, and then with some neutral site kickoffs in 2014 and 2016. LSU won the first won 38-28, and Wisconsin won the last 16-14, resulting in an overall 3-1 record for the Tigers.
Last bowl game: The Badgers have the country’s third longest active streak, dating to a 31-28 win over Colorado in the 2002 Alamo Bowl. Last season, they beat Oklahoma State 24-17 in the Guarnteed Rate Bowl. This will be their 22nd consecutive appearance. This is LSU’s third bowl game in a row. In 2021 they lost 42-20 to K-State in the Texas Bowl, and last season they beat Purdue 63-7 in the Citrus Bowl.
Announcers: Brian Custer, Rod Gilmore, and Lauren Sisler

1:00:

  • Iowa vs. Tennessee (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): I did Joe Milton isn’t playing in this one for Tennessee. I don’t think it would’ve been a fun assignment and I absolutely don’t blame him, but man a backup QB going against the Iowa defense seems less than ideal. That said, Tennessee at least knows how to play offense, so I’m still giving them an edge over the Hawkeyes.
    SP+ line: Vols -4.9
    Vegas line: Vols -8.5
    Watchability tier: Yes, ha ha ha, yes!!
    Previous meetings: Three, all in special games. The first was a 28-22 Iowa win in the 1982 Peach Bowl. Next up was a 23-22 season opener win for the Vols in the Meadowlands. And most recently, the Vols win 45-28 in the 2014-15 TaxSlayer Bowl.
    Last bowl game: The Hawkeyes didn’t play a bowl game in 2020 (for completely understandable reasons), but if they had this would be their 11th bowl game in a row, dating to the 2013-14 Outback Bowl. Instead, they lost to Kentucky 20-17 in the 2021-22 Citrus Bowl and beat Kentucky 21-0 in last season’s Music City Bowl.
    Announcers: Dave Flemming, Brock Osweiler, and Kayla Burton
  • Liberty vs. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): I don’t see any scenario where this is anything other than absolute asskicking by the Ducks.
    SP+ line: Ducks -13.2
    Vegas line: Ducks -18.5
    Watchability tier: II
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game: This is the fifth bowl game in a row for the Libs, dating to a 23-16 win over Georgia Southern in the 2019 Cure Bowl. Last season they lost 21-19 to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. This is the seventh bowl in a row for the Ducks, dating to a 38-28 loss to Boise State in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl. Last season they beat UNC 28-27 in the Holiday Bowl.
    Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Robert Griffin III, and Kris Budden

5:00: Michigan vs. Alabama (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): There’s going to be a lot written about this game, even though I think the Sugar Bowl is going to be the better game. (For an example of what I mean, see what I wrote below for the “Previous meetings” section for this game.) What can I say? Basically every available metric favors Michigan, including the metric known as “what I’ve watched of both of these teams throughout the season”. That said, it definitely is reasonable to say that Michigan has only truly been tested a few times, and they have not seen the kind of defense that Alabama will bring to the table in Pasadena. I have picked Michigan to win, but that is mostly on what can perhaps best be described as “hope”, that is, the hope that they’ll realize that to win this game they’re going to need to do something different than what they’ve done all year. Just leaning on this Bama squad and hoping they’ll break… will not work. I know that worked against Penn State. I know that worked against Ohio State. But that idea is what has failed them in their last two playoff appearances. They need to bring something different to the table, and they need to realize it from the start of the game. If they wind up chasing this game the way they did against TCU last year, I’d expect a similar result.
SP+ line: Michigan -8.4
Vegas line: Michigan -1
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This will be the sixth all-time meeting between two of college football’s most storied teams. Despite being college football royalty for more-or-less the entire history of the sport, the first meeting wasn’t until a matchup of two 7-4 versions of these teams in the 1987-88 Hall of Fame Bowl. Michigan won 28-24. The next met in the 1996-97 Outback Bowl, a classic in the “remember some guys” genre featuring touchdowns from Brian Griese and Shaun Alexander. The Tide won 17-14. Speaking of which, they next met in the 1999-2000 Orange Bowl, which featured some guy named Tom Brady throwing for 4 TDs and a 35-34 Michigan overtime win that was sealed by Bama missing the PAT. Next up, they kicked off the 2012 season with a game in Jerry Jones’s Intergalactic Space Palace, where Bama won 41-14. Most recently, they played in the 2019-2020 Citrus Bowl, where Bama cruised a 35-16 win, breaking the tie and giving the Tide a 3-2 series lead.
Last bowl game: This is Michigan’s third bowl game in a row. In 2021 they lost 34-11 to Georgia in the Orange Bowl, and last season they lost 51-45 to TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Laura Rutledge

8:45: Washington vs. Texas (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): I hope you like points, because, yo, this game is going to have some points. Okay, yeah, Texas has some dudes on the defensive line, but if there’s a team that’s shown they can scheme around that issue, it’s the Huskies. Honestly, I think Texas has plenty of talent, but it feels like next year is going to be their year. I’m a lot more sure about UDub coming out of this one than I am about the result of the Rose Bowl.
SP+ line: Horns -6
Vegas line: Horns -4
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This game may seem somewhat familiar. And indeed, these two met a year ago in the 2022 Alamo Bowl, which has a close final score (27-20) but the Huskies went up 27-10 early in the 4th quarter and that was pretty much it. They first met in 1974, where the Horns won 35-21. Overall, Texas leads the series 3-2.
Last bowl game: The Dubs beat Texas 27-20 in last season’s Alamo Bowl. The Horns lost 27-20 to Washington in last season’s Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath, and Katie George