This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. (Also apologies to the MACtion games that already happened this week.)

Thursday

7:30: North Carolina State @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): I’m not entirely sure how we beat Miami two years in a row. It’s not that both were due to bizarre Mario Cristobal clock decisions (though by golly he tried this time around). At any rate, this is more even contest that is sandwiched between last week’s season-defining win and next week’s… well, you know. I personally have fond memories of Thursday night home games, and I think this will be more of a watch than whatever dreck the NFL is shoving out this week (for the record, it’s Steelers-Browns, so yeah, watch this instead). It’ll be interesting to see if the bye week did us any good. We made the two-QB thing work against Miami, but I’m pretty sure if there’s some way Haynes King can actually throw the ball again it’d improve our chances.

Friday

7:00: Temple @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN2): It’s been an adjustment for UTSA after Frank Harris’s move to the sidelines, but they’re figured it out the past couple of weeks against some of the other better AAC schools. Temple shouldn’t pose an obstacle.

8:00: Purdue @ Michigan State (FOX): No one is making you watch this. Purdue is possibly the worst team in the Power 4, and while the Spartans are not great themselves, this shouldn’t be close.

10:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ San Jose State (FS1): This game promises some fireworks. The Rebels are freshly ranked, but SJSU is not a pushover (at least, when not facing Ashton Jeanty). I like UNLV here, but this should be a fun Friday night in San Jose. (Might be kind of wet, too.)

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 2

They’re hot and ready here. Let’s actually talk about the process a little bit this week.

Step 1 is to project out each team’s record. To make it slightly less vibes-based, I use SP+ to project each team’s remaining matchups. I ignore any team with 8 or more losses, as there’s no chance for them to make a bowl game. Step 2 is to project the playoff. This was hard when it was the BCS, slightly harder when it was the 4-team playoff, and now with 12? All bets are off, but I’m trying my best. This is also why the new projections tend to come out after the new rankings, as I use the current rankings to try to gain some insight into the Committee’s thinking. Almost certainly the most controversial choice I made was putting Indiana in over Tennessee. If what everyone thinks will happen to the Hoosiers happens this weekend, next week’s ranking will be very useful to determine if they still have a shot.

Step 3 is to start filling in the bowls based on the non-playoff teams. I start with the Power 4 and the zombie Pac-12, as their tie-ins are slightly less to the whims of what ESPN decides to do. After that, I start filling in the G5 teams as needed. The conference matchups you see on the page are more or less… guidelines, and generally speaking for any ESPN Events-owned bowl just about anything can happen. This makes this process maddening, but I’ve been doing this since 1999 and I’m not going to stop now.

Step 4 is to then determine what, if any, backfill is needed. Right now the projected record leaves me 4 teams sort of the 6-6 mark. There’s no transitioning teams this season that will be bowl-eligible, so we go straight to APR ranking the projected 5-7 teams. That’s how Cincinnati, Central Florida, Virginia, and Boston College got in this week. It could well be different next week, as upsets tend to add more 6-6 teams.

As a reminder, I have no special insight into what anyone who is responsible for these games is actually thinking. I don’t really keep track of the accuracy of the projections because of this. It’s gotten harder over time, but it’s still a fun exercise.

Some quick sports-columnist-esque notes on the matchups:

  • Boise State’s best “win” is almost certainly going to be their 3-point less to Oregon back in September.
  • I don’t really love that 8 of the 12 spots are going to the Big Ten and SEC, and I love even less the change those conferences are shoving through to give themselves 4 autobids regardless. I don’t think the ACC and Big 12 are necessarily doomed to only get one team in each season (and I definitely think the Big 12 will be better next season).
  • The specific order of the CFP First Round matchups is more-or-less a guess, but I would guess if Oregon gets a late game, they will get one of the later slots. The main thing to watch is how the subcontracting with TNT goes, i.e., if ESPN gets to decide what to keep (because in that case, a Notre Dame home game would almost certainly be on ESPN).

That’s about it for now. Next week will be even more robust as more teams clinch eligibility and I only have to project out one game.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Utah @ Colorado (FOX): It appears the Buffs are going to get away with it until further notice.
  • Texas @ Arkansas (ABC): This is an old Southwest Conference rivalry, though Texas doesn’t really want you to know this. Either way, I don’t think Arkansas has a chance to make this a rivalry again in this edition.
  • Clemson @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): If Clemson’s ballon was popped, then Pitt’s was destroyed by a large artillery shell. I suspect it’ll be easier for the Tigers to recover.
  • Tulane @ Navy (ESPN2): I think Tulane will just out-athelete Navy here.
  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): The only reason to watch this is to see football played at Wrigley.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): Hilltoppers all the way here.
  • Liberty @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)

12:45: Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (SEC): As much as I want to believe this overachieving ULM team could do this… I just can’t. Auburn isn’t this bad, right? Right?

1:00: Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (ESPN+)

1:30: Murray State @ Kentucky (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Mercer @ Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Michigan State @ Illinois (FS1): I’d prefer to bot think about this game. Illini.

3:00:

  • Syracuse @ California (The CW): We’re getting down to the short end of the season, and despite the abysmal luck Cal has had they have a very good chance to make a bowl game. It’d really help their cause to get this one. I imagine though no one over In Berkeley is super crazy about an 11:30 am local time kickoff, though.
  • Hawaii @ Utah State (Team1Sports)
  • Sam Houston State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (ABC): Possibly the biggest “not-actually-a-rivalry” rivalry in the SEC is still on the schedule. I think this is kind of a coin flip. I’m taking LSU but if Florida has their starting QB they have a puncher’s chance.
  • Virginia @ Notre Dame (NBC): Virginia is having a nice little season. The Irish will break up the party, at least this week.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (CBS): Penn State’s position as the Third Best Team In The Big Ten is surprisingly durable even after expansion. Suffice it to say, they won’t have any issues here.
  • Boston College @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): If you told me you’d have SMU leading the ACC in Mid-Novembet, I’d call you a liar. I’m still not convinced by them, and BC could well knock them off, but I’m going to stop short of saying that’ll happen.
  • Louisville @ Stanford (ACCN): Whereas I can guarantee the Cardinals will beat the Cardinal.
  • Oregon State @ Air Force (CBSS): Oregon State is really taking on the chin this year, and normally I’d be concerned about what the Falcons would throw at them. With this year’s edition of Air Force, not so much.
  • South Florida @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Nebraska @ Southern California (FOX): I am completely devoid of opinions about these teams. I mean, I definitely have thoughts about the programs but when it comes to the 2024 Cornhuskers and Trojans it’s just “file not found”.  They’re not good. They’re not awful. They’re just there. I’ll take the Huskers I guess.
  • Baylor @ West Virginia (ESPN2): See above. Is everyone outside of like BYU and K-State interchangeable in the Big 12 this season? It sure feels that way sometimes. I’ll take Baylor here.
  • James Madison @ Old Dominion (“Royal Rivalry”; ESPNU): JMU is a slight favorite, to which I would say: why? I’m definitely taking the Monarchs over the Dukes here.
  • Troy @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

4:15: Missouri @ South Carolina (SEC): Gamecocks, please save us from the idea of Mizzou being a there near the playoff. Please.

5:00: Arkansas State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

6:00: Rutgers @ Maryland (FS1): I feel as though the schedule is taunting me at this point. Surely there’s some payoff below this? Either way, I’m taking Rutgers here.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Kansas State (ESPN): Okay, okay, this is getting more interesting. To be clear, I like K-State here but ASU is at least capable of making this interesting.
  • Boise State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Here’s your low-key game of the day. The setting may not make it seem this way, but the Silicon Valley Spartans are one of the better teams left in Boise’s schedule. Can SJSU contain Jeanty? Eh, I doubt it. But it should be interesting to watch.
  • South Alabama @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Oregon @ Wisconsin (NBC): Ducks. Next!
  • Tennessee @ Georgia (ABC): And here we are. This is the game of the day. The thing is that I, at least, have come up with a fair bit of SEC fatigue. At the present moment, the SEC and Big Ten are demanding a gaurunteed four bids each into the playoff. This is ridiculous, obviously, but the problem is the fait accompli of it all, as barring a miracle this is going to happen anyway. Ah, well, go Vawls.
  • New Mexico State @ Texas A&M (SEC): I’m writing this from a Waymo and it’s late. Aggies! Er, the ones from Texas. Next!

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Iowa State (FOX): Ah, we’re right back to the dire part of the schedule. I’ve cooled off on the Cyclones, but I think they’re still good enough to win here. This may be sneaky fun game, though.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Memphis (ESPN2): Tigers. Next!
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ACCN): It’s been a lost season for the Heels, but they shouldn’t have a problem here.

9:30: Washington State @ New Mexico (FS1): Wazzu should continue to roll through the remaining portion of their MWC schedule.

10:15: Kansas @ Brigham Young (ESPN): Kansas appears to be back, but I’m not sure they’re going to be able to affect American’s most “getting away with it” team (now that Miami finally didn’t get away with it last week).

10:30: San Diego State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV rolls.

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 1

Welcome back to an annual tradition mine that’s now in its 25th year. Wow, that feels weird to say. I don’t have a lot of time to explain this at the moment, so let’s cut to the chase: I try to predict who will go where in college football’s postseason. I use SP+ to project each team’s record, and then I use those records to try to predict where these teams will go.

Expect a more detailed post next week. For now, the predictions are here. I’m two teams short currently, but that means I don’t need very many upsets to get enough teams.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Texas (ABC): Okay folks, I need to be level with you. We, well, I, intended to have the bowl predictions ready by now as well as the weekly update. Unfortunately, I have failed in the first part and almost failed in the second. So except for a few things, this is going to be a LIGHTNING ROUND. Texas!
  • Purdue @ Ohio State (FOX): Buckeyes!
  • Minnesota @ Rutgers (NBC): Gophers?
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): Okay, so, I have to talk about the alma mater, and it is our homecoming. Look, Miami is that much better this year and they got to this point undefeated. I have a good idea what to expect here, and I don’t think it’s that great for us. But, well, as last year’s game demonstrated, anything can happen. And I suspect we might need that.
  • Navy @ South Florida (ESPN2): Midshipmen!
  • West Virginia @ Cincinnati (FS1): Bearcats!
  • Syracuse @ Boston College (The CW): Orange!
  • Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPNU): Monroe?

1:00: Liberty @ Middle Tennessee State (CBSS): I wish I could believe the Blue Raiders could do this, but alas.

2:30:

  • Connecticut @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Marshall @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Mississippi (ABC): My perhaps most controversial take is that Ole Miss is the Penn State of the SEC, but, well prove me wrong? As much as it pains me, I have to think Georgia is going to win.
  • Michigan @ Indiana (CBS): #10Windiana?
  • Clemson @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Still going to pick Clemson here until proven otherwise.
  • Army @ North Texas (ESPN2): Army until proven otherwise.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (@Kansas City, MO; FS1): I have to go with the Cyclones here.
  • San Jose State @ Oregon State (The CW): Beavers!
  • Duke @ North Carolina State (ACCN): NC State!
  • Georgia State @ James Madison (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Colorado @ Texas Tech (FOX): Buffs?
  • Temple @ Tulane (ESPNU): Green Wave!
  • Kennesaw State @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

4:15: South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vandy? Oof, that’s weird to say.

4:30: Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Jax?

5:00: Arkansas State @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Mississippi State @ Tennessee (ESPN): Vols.
  • Central Florida @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Knights.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian (FS1):  TCU, probably.
  • Maryland @ Oregon (BTN): Ducks.

7:30:

  • Florida State @ Notre Dame (NBC): Irish.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (ABC): So this is really the game of the day, and I really believe that this will be worth it. It should be fun to watch, but I think that the night environment in Baton Rouge will allow LSU to prevail.

7:45: Oklahoma @ Missouri (SEC): Tigers?

8:00:

  • Nevada @ Boise State (FOX): Broncos. Well, Ashton Jeanty specifically.
  • Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): Pitt?
  • Washington @ Pennsylvania State (Peacock): Nittany Lions.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Hawaii (CBSS): Rebels.

9:45: Fresno State @ Air Force (FS1): Bulldogs.

10:15: Brigham Young @ Utah (“Holy War”; ESPN): It’s good to see this rivalry on again, but I have to think it’s BYU all the way here.

10:30: Utah State @ Washington State (The CW): Cougs.