This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday

7:00: Mississippi State @ Mississippi (“Egg Bowl”; ESPN): It’s Egg Bowl time once again, and this one seems primed for some classic Egg Bowl mayhem. Miss State is slightly more dangerous this year, and after a hot start Ole Miss has settled down the point where a down Arkansas womped ’em last weekend. This naturally sparked rumors–since enhanced–that Lane Kiffin might have his mind elsewhere. Ole Miss is definitely still the pick on paper, and it’s in Oxford, so the odds still favor them. But it could be fun.

Friday

Noon:

  • Utah State @ Boise State (CBS): Utah State hasn’t been as bad as I would’ve thought this year, but it appears that Boise is still the class of the Mountain West. In other news, this game will be at 10am local time, which seems kind of bad?
  • Tulane @ Cincinnati (ABC): This is a big one that will go toward which AAC team gets to go to the Cotton Bowl. I will continue to take Cincy and their suspect offense, but if Tulane races out to an early multi-score lead this one could well be over.
  • Baylor @ Texas (ESPN): I think Texas has reached a turning point after completely dominating an inferior Kansas team (something that Texas has shown repeatedly is not guaranteed!). This game will put that to proof, as Baylor does have a chance to at least slow down all-everything Texas TB Bijan Robinson.
  • Toledo @ Western Michigan (ESPNU): Toledo is the best team in the MAC, they just don’t realize it. They should win here.
  • Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (CBSS): This one of the major rivalries in the MAC and it’s good to see that’s on a weekend instead of Tuesday. Eastern comes in with a winning record and I’ll definitely be favoring them.

3:00: Arizona State @ Arizona (“Duel in the Desert”; FS1): It’s been a weird season for both teams. Arizona State, of course, fired their coach. Arizona has gone through a lot, but it’s safe to say they’re better than anyone expected. I like Arizona and their random number generator of a quarterback Jayden deLaura, but this game can probably go either way.

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Missouri (“Battle Line Rivalry”; CBS): KJ Jefferson and company looked a lot healthier in womping Ole Miss last weekend than they’ve looked in a while, which bodes well against a game but undermanned Mizzou squad.
  • North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ABC): The classically most important Tobacco Road rivalry in football meets again. UNC… somehow lost to us last weekend, and NC State’s usual (read: disappointing) season has one last chance to be salvaged. If UNC’s offense shows up on Friday they’ll have a good chance, but I’ll take the upset and the Wolfpack here.
  • New Mexico @ Colorado State (CBSS): New Mexico state is bad, but the Rams are one of the worst teams in FBS. I’ve continually been kind of bummed that Colorado State didn’t play Colorado this season, that would’ve been… something for the ages.

4:00: Nebraska @ Iowa (BTN): Well, this will be fun. Oh, wait, it’ll probably be the other thing. Nebraska will surely try valiantly for their interim coach Mickey Joseph, but Iowa’s defense will recover a fumble for a touchdown or something and they’ll win this game. All for a chance to get crushed by Michigan or Ohio State in Indianapolis next weekend. Woo.

4:30: California-Los Angeles @ California (“Battle of California”; FOX): UCLA is licking their wounds after two straight losses, but in true Hollywood style them and USC put on a show last weekend in the Rose Bowl. Cal will offer slightly less resistance.

7:30: Florida @ Florida State (“Sunshine Showdown”; ABC): Is FSU for real? We’re going to get a pretty good idea here. This Florida team isn’t good (see: losing to Vandy last weekend) but they’re still talented enough to be the best test the ‘Noles have faced in a while. With the game in Tallahassee I’ll take the home team.

10:00: Wyoming @ Fresno State (FS1): And in some Mountain West After Dark, we’ll get to watch Jake Haener pull another one out for the Bulldogs.

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 4

The predictions are in the usual place.

The events of last weekend shookup the playoff picture a bit. Based on what I think the committee will do tomorrow, these are my best guesses for both the playoff and associated New Year’s Six bowls.

After that, I did use all of the independents, as well as JMU and one 5-7 team. Rice and UNLV I both have projected to finish 5-7, and they’re both tied atop the APR standings (as I understand them).

Overall, we’ve got 74 teams bowl eligible now, and depending on stuff breaks this weekend, we could get there. That said, I think it’s pretty likely every 6 win or better team will be needed, which is pretty good news if you’re a UConn fan.

That’s it for this week. The real action starts next week, when I start scouring for any possible news. Until then, it’s time for rivalry week.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:00: Navy @ Central Florida (ESPN2): It hasn’t been the greatest of season for Navy, leading to some questions as to whether Coach Ken might be a little past his prime. UCF figures to roll. By the way, quick programming note this week: I’ve included some select FCS rivalries here, and FCS teams are indicated by italics.

Noon:

  • Texas Christian @ Baylor (“The Revivalry”; FOX): Baylor hasn’t had the season they wanted or expected coming in, but they’re still a legitimate force to be reckoned with if you’re TCU, and the game is in Waco. I have TCU going to the playoff right now, but suffice it to say a loss here completely derails that plan. I like the Horned Frogs, but this could get squirrelly.
  • Illinois @ Michigan (ABC): It’s hard to think that a Michigan team would be caught looking ahead to next week.
  • Wisconsin @ Nebraska (ESPN): Probably Wisconsin here.
  • Northwestern @ Purdue (FS1): Definitely Purdue here. Northwestern is just kinda bad.
  • Florida @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Vandy picked up their first SEC win since 2019 last week by beating Kentucky. I don’t think they’re going to notch consecutive wins for the first time (SEC or otherwise) since 2018 here.
  • Indiana @ Michigan State (BTN): Sparty figures to role a demoralized Indiana bunch.
  • Duke @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): I suspect Pitt probably won’t start this game by picking Duke off twice for pick-6’s, but I can’t rule it out. Duke is nominally one of the better teams in the Coastal (an incredibly low bar), but I have Pitt here.
  • Louisiana @ Florida State (ACC/RSN): FSU figures to roll the Cajuns.
  • Virginia Tech @ Liberty (ESPN+)
  • East Tennessee State @ Mississippi State (ESPN+)
  • Massachusetts @ Texas A&M (ESPN+)
  • Austin Peay @ Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Yale Harvard (ESPNU)

1:00: Texas-San Antonio @ Rice (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Washington State @ Arizona (Pac12): Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura is more-or-less a random number generator, in that he can just about anything, and it may or may not be good for Arizona. Last weekend, it worked out to give UCLA a loss at a pretty critical juncture in their season. I’ll guess they’ll lose to Wazzu here.
  • Georgia State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ East Carolina (ESPN+)
  • Kansas State @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
  • North Alabama @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • MontanaMontana State (“Brawl of the Wild”; MTN/ESPN+)

2:15: Oregon State @ Arizona State (ESPN2): Unlike their Tuscon brothers, Arizona State is just bad in a kind of boring way. Beavers should roll.

2:30: Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC): Here’s another one of Notre Dame’s 37 traditional rivals, and another one where they should win comfortably.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Kentucky (CBS): I have a feeling next weekend will be the most UGA football I’ve watched all year.
  • Ohio State @ Maryland (ESPN): See what I said about Michigan earlier, though Illinois is definitely way more threatening than the Terps at this point.
  • Texas @ Kansas (FS1): Okay, so in years past Kansas would 100% win this game. But since they’re halfway decent this year, I think Texas figure to roll.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Penn State will continue their campaign to demonstrate how thoroughly they are the third-best team in the Big Ten.
  • South Alabama @ Southern Mississippi (NFLN): South Alabama has a lead in the Sun Belt west over USM, they’re been a pretty good outfit this year. I’ll take ’em.
  • North Carolina State @ Louisville (ACC/RSN): NC State just seems to have been snakebit this season, and I think that will continue by continuing Louisville’s somewhat inexplicable good season.
  • Utah Tech @ Brigham Young (BYUTV/espn3.com)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte (espn3.com)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Troy (ESPN+)
  • North Dakota North Dakota State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Iowa @ Minnesota (FOX): Everyone’s favorite pig trophy is in play here, and I like Minnesota’s ability to play any offense at all here, along with the game being at home.
  • Cincinnati @ Temple (ESPNU): Temple is bad, and it’ll be a good test for Cincy to see if they can put a team like this away.
  • Western Kentucky @ Auburn (SEC): So some metrics have Western Kentucky as a favorite, and I sort of agree? That said, it’s hard to factor in emotion, and this team seems like to like playing for Cadillac. I think this can go either way.
  • Florida International @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

5:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ North Carolina (ESPN2): My main hope for the remainder of the season is that we can avoid the combined 110-0 losses we took in the last two games of last season. That’s about it.
  • Stanford @ California (“The Big Game”; Pac12): The Big Game will be a sellout over in Berkeley. Both of these teams are bad, but Stanford is bad in a sense that nothing they do really works, whereas Cal is more just kind of challenged in some ways. Taking the Bears here.

6:00: Marshall @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Tennessee @ South Carolina (ESPN): Vols should continue to roll against an inconsistent Gamecocks squad.
  • Texas Tech @ Iowa State (FS1): Just picking this one based on vibes: Texas Tech.
  • Boise State @ Wyoming (CBSS): The Mountain West is down bad this year, which has thus far benefited a rebuilding Boise bunch. And I suspect it will continue to.

7:30:

  • Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (“Bedlam”; ABC): Unless something changes, we’re winding toward the conclusion of Bedlam as a thing. The Pokes won last year in one of the year’s best games. This year’s game also figures to be weird, but it’s hard to tell which way. The Sooners have faced several headwinds with their new coach, whereas Oklahoma State looked playoff bound (or at least Big 12 championship game bound) until they very much weren’t in an inexplicable two week stretch. (Well, okay, it’s partially explicable: they’ve got quarterback injuries.) Which of these two things will prevail here? Well, all I have to do is look at the historical record in this series and… pick Oklahoma.
  • New Mexico State @ Missouri (ESPNU): Mizzou should have no issues here.
  • Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): With KJ Jefferson limited by injuries, Ole Miss should have no issues here.

8:00:

  • Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): The crosstown rivalry that doesn’t have an agreed-upon name is back, and it’s in the Rose Bowl this team. UCLA’s loss, as previously mentioned, limits the luster here. But USC still has a possible path to the playoff, so they need to win here. The way it’s been going in the Pac-12 makes me think that means UCLA’s going to win.
  • Syracuse @ Wake Forest (ACCN): I still don’t believe Syracuse.

9:00:

  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana State (ESPN2): LSU should roll.
  • Colorado State @ Air Force (FS2): This is a rivalry between the two G5 Colorado schools, but Air Force should absolutely trounce a very, very bad Colorado State team.
  • Colorado @ Washington (Pac12): If this 1992, this would be the game of the century of the week. Alas, it is not. Dubs get a dub.

9:45: San Jose State @ Utah State (FS1): Utah State also isn’t good, and I keep forgetting SJSU kind of is, so, again.

10:30:

  • Utah @ Oregon (ESPN): So… what everyone is wondering is: “is this going to be like last year where Utah absolutely punched Oregon in the mouth repeatedly for 60 minutes twice within three weeks?” This year’s version of the Ducks does seem a little tougher, though, and yeah I know they lost to Washington last week. If they can score early, that’ll limit Utah’s ability to punch them repeatedly and will force the Utes to play catch-up. I’m picking Oregon, but I’d think this can go either way.
  • Fresno State @ Nevada (CBSS): It should be cold and maybe even snowy in Reno, but Fresno should have no issues.

11:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)

Bowl Predictions 2022: Week 3

They’re up, hot and fresh over at the usual place. Let’s hit the high notes.

  • I wound up short 1 team, so I slotted JMU in per the NCAA criteria. I still need to confirm if this is actually possible. For now, we continue to tick up to the required number: we now have 64 bowl eligible teams, so we need 18 more.
  • The playoff picture looks different this week since I wound up doing this after the post-Week 11 rankings were released. I’m counting on LSU getting punished for losing to UGA in the SEC Championship Game, otherwise, we’ll probably have 4 SEC teams. Tennessee will continue to be a fringe playoff contender unless they lose, and Bama doesn’t look like it can fall out of the top 10.
  • Man, Texas-Oregon would be a rad Alamo Bowl. And, of course, we continue to project, and root for, the ultimate Sun Bowl rematch.
  • Finally, shout out to the University of Connecticut Huskies, for not only defeating Liberty, but getting to 6 wins in the process. Look, if we wind up with 82 other teams that are bowl eligible, the Huskies probably won’t get in, since they don’t have any official tie-ins and among other teams in that situation (BYU and Liberty), they’re probably at the bottom of the pecking order. It always seems to shake out that enough upsets happen to get us to enough teams, but if we’re at exactly 82 or less, UConn’s going to go bowling for the first time for the first time since 2015.

 

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Missouri @ Tennessee (CBS): Tennessee figures to bounce back against a good defense instead of an all-time great one like they faced last weekend.
  • Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Baltimore, MD; ABC): This game is all about an old promise made, otherwise, it’s notable for a long losing streak. While that streak was interrupted a while back, this year doesn’t figure to help with the perception.
  • Indiana @ Ohio State (FOX): Indiana has had a mixed season, but they shouldn’t take the expected blowout here too hard.
  • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (ESPN): Arkansas can definitely still sneak up and WOMP ya, but LSU seems to have arrived very quickly under Brain Kelly. Again, this game is always tricky for the Tigers, but I like them here.
  • Purdue @ Illinois (ESPN2): I don’t really want to think about this game that much, so, uh, Illni?
  • Oklahoma @ West Virginia (FS1): Neal Brown might be coaching for his job here, which, well, that doesn’t project to work out too well!
  • Southern Methodist @ South Florida (ESPNU): USF is just… bad. Ponies rumble here.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (SEC): Vandy is just… bad. Cayuts tread all over them here.
  • Pittsburgh @ Virginia (ACCN): I’m still not sure what’s going on with Pitt this year, but I like their chances to complete smother a hapless UVA team and win with defense.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan State (BTN): It’s been a weird year for both of these teams, but Sparty just figures to have a talent advantage here.
  • Liberty @ Connecticut (CBSS): I want the Huskies to win so bad, but after what Liberty did to Arkansas last week, I just can’t pick them.
  • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACC/RSN): Duke figures to romp here, which says more about the Hokies than anything else. Then again, the ACC Coastal is just seemingly a massive rock fight this year, so who knows?

1:00:

  • James Madison @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

3:00: Temple @ Houston (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Maryland @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): The Terps likely want to make something out of this season, but Penn State’s position as the most thoroughly third-best team in the Big Ten makes that unlikely.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan (ABC): The Michigan-Ohio State clash in a couple weeks just feels inevitable.
  • Alabama @ Mississippi (CBS): This game figures to be tough for the Tide, but the main reason they lost to LSU last week was that the Tigers’ defense was able to barely contain a pedestrian (by Bama standards) offense. I don’t think Ole Miss has the talent to pull that trick off two weeks in a row.
  • Louisville @ Clemson (ESPN): While Louisville is better than anyone expected this year under what figured to be a dead-man walking in Scott Satterfield, I still can’t pick them to beat even this relatively mediocre Clemson team.
  • Central Florida @ Tulane (ESPN2): Arguable the game of the week, this figures to be for G5 supremacy. I still like Cincy personally, and I’ll take the Gus Bus and UCF here.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): Is Oklahoma State’s careening vehicle enough to make me pick the Cyclones here? It looks pretty dodgy, and you know what, I don’t track these anyway, so let’s have some fun.
  • Wisconsin @ Iowa (FS1): Speaking of fun… this figures to be the opposite of that. Iowa, since they’re at home and Wisconsin has enough trouble scoring as-is.
  • Boston College @ North Carolina State (ACCN): BC is just hapless, Wolfpack all the way here.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (BTN): Not sure what happened with the boat and the rowing thereof, but this figures to be a win for the Gophers.
  • New Mexico @ Air Force (CBSS): Air Force all the way here.
  • Army @ Troy (NFLN): Similarly, Troy.
  • Arizona State @ Washington State (Pac12): I can’t think of a reason that the Sun Devils would win this at the moment.
  • North Texas @ Alabama-Birmingham (Stadium)
  • Miami @ Georgia Tech (ACC/RSN): We sure did beat VPI last weekend, huh. It was a weird game in the midst of a weird season. I don’t think Brent Key has locked up the permanent gig, at least, I hope not. We still have a lot of problems on both sides of the ball that I don’t think can really be fixed in season. We may have a QB battle in our midst as well, but I still like Sims if he’s healthy just because he’s more dynamic. Either way, my honest thought is that this game is gettable, but on paper at least Miami should out-talent us. It should be interesting.
  • Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee State (espn3.com)
  • Appalachian State @ Marshall (“Mountain Warfare”; ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)

4:00: South Carolina @ Florida (SEC):

5:00: Texas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Washington @ Oregon (FOX): This classic Pacific Northwest rivalry is renewed once again, and I’m definitely looking forward to a shootout here. Still, hard not to like the Ducks at home.
  • Georgia @ Mississippi State (ESPN): If there’s any team that seems incapable for suffering a let down after a big win, it seems to be Georgia.
  • Kansas State @ Baylor (FS1): K-State has been good, but the degree to which they can get away with against more talented teams on the road is still a coin flip. While they do it more often than most, it’s hard to exactly rely on it.
  • Wyoming @ Colorado State (“Border War”; CBSS): This is a pretty old rivalry game (played 113 times!) but it won’t get a lot of sizzle. At least this year, that’s because the Rams are awful.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Florida International (“Shula Bowl”; Stadium)
  • Kansas @ Texas Tech (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Texas (ABC): I have Texas winning here. Don’t ask why, because nothing subjective in my head thinks that the Longhorns will win. Every objective ranking has the Horns all the way, though.
  • North Carolina @ Wake Forest (ESPN2): I HOPE YOU LIKE POINTS, because boy howdy this game is gonna deliver! That said, I’m worried about Wake, as they just haven’t been the same since that Louisville game. This means I’m picking UNC, but I’m not happy about it. And, again, this is going to be very points-y.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): Beach Chickens all the way here.
  • Texas A&M @ Auburn (SEC): So Auburn nearly did the thing last week after firing Harsin, but they lost in overtime to Miss State. They’ll get another chance over perhaps the worst team in the SEC. TAMU isn’t bad on paper, of course, but they look so inept in games, especially on offense, every game turns in a “will they really pay Jimbo Fisher $95 million to not coach” a serious question worth considering. I’ll pick Auburn.

8:00: Florida State @ Syracuse (ACCN): FSU seems to have figured some things out.

9:00: California @ Oregon State (Pac12): Beavers, because they’re more fun and it feels weird picking Cal under almost any circumstance.

10:00: Stanford @ Utah (ESPN): Stanford is trying, but I just don’t see them scoring against the Utes. Like, this could seriously be a shutout.

10:30:

  • Arizona @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Zona is a speedbump on the way to what figures to be an epic UCLA-USC clash next week.
  • San Jose State @ San Diego State (FS1): San Jose State is good, which I still find surprising, and the Aztecs, well, I still don’t really want to think about this. Either way, I don’t think they’re as good on defense as they’ve been and the offense is still anemic. so the West Coast Sparty all the way here.
  • Boise State @ Nevada (CBSS): Nevada is just… bad. Boise isn’t good this year, but the rest of the Mountain West is down bad enough that it kinda doesn’t matter.

11:00: Utah State @ Hawaii (Team1Sports)