This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all predictions wrong and all times eastern.

Noon:

  • Michigan @ Wisconsin (ESPN): In continuation with on branch of my harebrained predictions, Michigan wins, setting up what in August would’ve been considered a very unlikely match for the Big Ten championship.
  • Wake Forest @ Clemson (ESPN2): Clemson ruined Wake’s perfect season last year with a FG block returned for a TD. Both still have an ACC title game berth on the line, but at this juncture only Clemson controls their own destiny. Wake is by far the meatiest opponent they’ve played since their two losses. The Tigers have racked up 49 points per game since the losses to GT and VPI while allowing only about 14, but those opponents were Central Michigan, Maryland, and Duke. In fact, Clemson’s best win was probably the season opener over FSU. However, Wake’s resume isn’t that impressive either and they’re coming off a tough loss to Virginia last weekend. Clemson wins, but it’s closer than most think.
  • Indiana @ Northwestern (ESPN Classic): This joke has been made a thousand times over, probably, but there is nothing really “classic” about this matchup. Indiana is already bowl-eligible but NU must win this week or next week versus Illinois. Neither of these teams good, but Indiana at least managed to beat Iowa, so I’ll give them the edge.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (Raycom/Gameplan): Don’t look, but NC State has won three straight games, including a victory over a OOC opponent UNC couldn’t beat, East Carolina. UNC did manage to beat Maryland, but only NC State has felled Virginia in ACC play thus far. I’m going with a rejuvenated Wolfpack here.

12:30:

  • Texas Agricultural & Mechanical @ Missouri (FSN): The Aggies simply got whipped last week at Oklahoma, and for the second consecutive week they played the 6th ranked team in the country. With all the questions surrounding the head coach’s job and 2 straight losses, I don’t expect a different result here. Mizzou wins.
  • Kansas State @ Nebraska (Versus): The “Don’t Care” meter is reaching awfully high levels here, but that said Nebraska is just hapless at this point. K-State wins.
  • Alabama @ Mississippi State (LF/Gameplan): Mississippi State is improved, yes. That doesn’t mean I’m about to start picking them to win anything until they play Ole Miss. ‘Bama wins.
  • Arkansas @ Tennessee (LF/Gameplan): Tennessee is still very much in control of its own destiny in the SEC East. Arkansas seems to have rediscovered its offense, which you’d think wouldn’t be difficult since their offense consists of entirely one person. Nonetheless, I like the Vols here. I’m willing to chalk up the loss to Alabama as a fluke, and besides, it’d be infinitely more amusing if Tennessee lost the SEC East race because of a loss to Vanderbilt next week.

1:00: Georgia Tech @ Duke (accselect.com): Tech’s first non-televised game of the year comes against Duke. I don’t really have much to say about the Jackets right now.

2:30: Air Force @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame loses to a service academy the second week in a row. Fun fact: Notre Dame has not lost to two service academies in one year since 1944.

3:30:

  • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): This game is vastly more important for the Bulldogs than it is for the Tigers. If Georgia loses it significantly muddles their road to the SEC title game (more so than it already is since they still need Tennessee to lose). I think Auburn knows they’ve got nothing to lose and I expect an exciting game that hopefully will result in a victory for them.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN/ABC): Illinois has a two game winning streak, sure. Of course, those games were Minnesota and Ball State. I can’t really think of any way the go up to Columbus and win.
  • Florida State @ Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ABC/ESPN): FSU seeks to ruin the dreams of another ACC program this week. By every conceivable measure Matt Ryan is a better quarterback than Sean Glennon, and FSU certainly flustered the former plenty last week. I don’t expect Glennon to repeat last week’s performance at all, but I also don’t see how FSU is going to score any points against the Virginia Tech defense in Blacksburg. Except a a defense-heavy game typical of the ACC with the Hokies edging out a narrow victory.
  • Arizona State @ California-Los Angeles (Gameplan/ABC): Hop aboard the train of the country’s most schizophrenic football team, the UCLA Bruins. See a team that can beat Cal but lose to Arizona, Utah, and Notre Dame! I mean, hell, there’s a chance they could even beat ASU this weekend. That said, it’s not a very good chance. Arizona State wins.
  • Texas Tech @ Texas (Gameplan/ABC): Mike Leach’s Texas Tech pirate ship ran aground a few weeks ago. They managed to patch the hull and fix some leaks and beat Baylor 48-7, but on the horizon is the frigate that is Texas and the veritable ship-of-the-line that is Oklahoma. The Texas frigate is also banged up, but it’s loaded with the appropriate amount of grapeshot to take the wind out of Tech’s sails. Longhorns win.

6:30: Baylor @ Oklahoma (FSN): Why is this a national broadcast on FSN? Who knows! Oklahoma rolls.

7:15: Virginia @ Miami (FL) (ESPN2): Miami is not a very good football team. Neither is Virginia, but they are exceedingly lucky. The Cavaliers average a mere 24 points per game and their average margin of victory is 6.6 points. Remove a blowout win over hapless Pittsburgh and the margin of victory shrinks to 3.3 points. That said, I don’t see this UM team defending the home turf in the “OB”. Cavs win.

7:45: Florida @ South Carolina (ESPN): It’s been an up-and-down season for the Gators, but for the Gamecocks it’s been down, down, down these past three weeks. South Carolina just can’t do much offensively and their defense seemed to have precious few answers against the one-dimensional Arkansas running attack last week. I don’t see much reason to pick them here.

8:00:

  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (Gameplan/ABC): It’s difficult to pick against a 9-0 team, especially when a 5-4 Oklahoma State really isn’t even the best opponent they’ve beaten.
  • Southern California @ California (ABC/Gameplan): Still a reasonably big game for the Bears, but more for pride and bowl position more than anything else. USC sits at two losses and needs a lot of help in the Pac-10 race. It’s hard to get a feel for how these teams are going to tomorrow, so I’ll go ESPN-style and blindly take the Trojans.
  • Boston College @ Maryland (Gameplan/ABC): Maryland hasn’t looked good as of late, and BC has to know they still control their own destiny in the ACC race, even if they didn’t handle that pressure well with regards to the national title race. Maryland just isn’t very good and with their remaining schedule could miss a bowl. BC wins.

10:15: Washington @ Oregon State (FSN): It’s your late night terrible Pac-10 matchup of the week! Seriously. Beavers roll.

11:00: Fresno State @ Hawaii (ESPN2): Now this is a late night game perhaps worth watching. Easily the best opponent Hawaii has played all year, Fresno gives them a chance, perhaps, to finally get some attention from the computers and boost their BCS standing into the promised land. Fresno’s only WAC loss is to the other WAC powerhouse, Boise State. That said, with the game in Hawaii you have to think the Warriors have an advantage with their passing attack. Hawaii wins.

Bowl Predictions, Week 4

So here we are again. These aren’t proofread yet, so consider them beta-quality.

I’ll share with you some of the reasoning I can remember:

  • I don’t really see anyone passing LSU in the polls at this point unless they lose. I think the only team that has a chance is an undefeated Kansas with a victory over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.
  • With Boston College losing, I’m now calling for Virginia Tech to win the ACC.
  • Provided it gets two teams into the BCS, the Pac-10 will probably be the only major conference unable to fulfill its bowl bids. Of course, I think other conferences would have similar issues if they had a 9-game schedule as well. Most BCS conference teams tend to win their OOC games unless they schedule real games or suck, and in the former case you rarely have a team that schedules more than one. Anyway, in the end the system doesn’t reward not scheduling patsies for all but the top teams (where scheduling makes a difference), so yeah.
  • Meanwhile, the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten are all in danger of having too many teams qualify for bowls. I have Miami not even making a bowl from the ACC. In the SEC, Mississippi State sits at the 5-win mark and has a game with terrible Ole Miss remaining. Vandy also sits at the 5-win mark but will not be favored in any of their remaining games. As for the ACC, Georgia Tech would do well to finish with a 4-4 in-conference mark after last Thursday’s debacle. We probably have the easiest remaining in-conference schedule (@Duke, UNC), at any rate. I predict the following 4 teams will be clamoring for the last 4 spots in the ACC bowl hierarchy: GT, FSU, Maryland, and Wake Forest. Of those, I only see GT and Wake finishing with 7-5 (or better) records, meaning that they must be picked ahead of FSU and Maryland.
  • Florida jumped from 20th to 15th place in the BCS this week, which means I’m placing them in the Sugar Bowl in place of LSU.
  • Michigan didn’t rise like I anticipated them doing. Provided they don’t again this week, I will have to drop them from the Rose and figure out who is going to go there.
  • Since Arizona State didn’t fall that much, I figure they’d be a good choice for the Fiesta provided they don’t lose again.

Anyway, that’s all I got for now. Questions? Comments? Feel free to leave them.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all time Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Purdue @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): The list of teams Purdue has lost to (Ohio State, Michigan) is far more impressive than the list of teams they’ve actually beaten. Their OOC consisted of 3 MAC schools and Notre Dame, and in-conference their best win is probably against Northwestern. I’m going with Penn State here.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ESPN2): Speaking of bad teams that have lost to Purdue… anyway, I’m going with Northwestern here.
  • Wake Forest @ Virginia (Raycom/Gameplan): ACC implications! More for Virginia than Wake, though, as with a UVA loss Virginia Tech will have first all to themselves in the division. I still don’t really think Virginia is all that good, so I’ll take Wake here.

12:30:

  • Nebraska @ Kansas (FSN): Yes, I know Nebraska showed up for 3 quarters against Texas last week. I still think they’re pretty bad and have a lame duck coach. The Fightin’ Manginos survive another week.
  • Kansas State @ Iowa State (Versus): Meanwhile, K-State rolls.
  • Vanderbilt @ Florida (LF/Gameplan): Unless Florida pulls its best South Carolina impression, I don’t really see how the Commodores will escape the swamp with a win. Provided they pull it off somehow, they will be bowl eligible for the first time since 1982.

2:30: Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): We all know the story here. And I was supremely confident in a Navy victory until they lost in a 59-52 shootout to Delaware last week. That said, I highly doubt Notre Dame’s offense is capable of generating 21 points, much less 59. I think the Midshipmen pull it out.

3:30:

  • Michigan @ Michigan State (ESPN/ABC): I don’t think either of these teams are particularly good, but the Wolverines have done a better job of feasting on their weak Big Ten foes. And I have to preserve my crackpot prediction that they’ll beat Ohio State and go to the Rose Bowl, so they win here.
  • Texas @ Oklahoma State (Gameplan/ABC): Despite losing at Texas A&M, Oklahoma State is still in the thick of the Big 12 South race with Oklahoma. Texas needs a ton of help (if it’s still even possible for them to pull it off) and they’d need a win here. The Cowboys did a much better job of dispatching Nebraska than the boys from Austin did. With the game in Stillwater and OSU knowing that control of their own destiny still on the line I think they win here.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (ABC/Gameplan): Why is this on TV anywhere, much less ABC? Arizona probably won’t even make a bowl game and UCLA is not a very good team, and just inconsistent enough to possibly lose this game. Will they? Probably not.
  • Cincinnati @ South Florida (Gameplan/ABC): Remember when these teams were relevant? You know, like a month ago? No? Well, then. Both are actually 6-2 but sport 1-2 conference records, with the main difference being that Cincy is reeling after consecutive losses to Louisville and Pitt. USF is reeling as well, but losses to Rutgers and UConn look slightly better at this point. I’ll say the Bulls will probably win.

5:00: Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): So Saban has saved his job for the time being from fickle Alabama fans by beating Tennessee in Knoxville and doing so with some gusto. LSU is missing some key guys due to injury and shady off-week shenanigans involving nightclubs and guns, but I still feel pretty confident LSU will prevail.

6:30: Missouri @ Colorado (FSN): 17 years! Never forget! Also, Mizzou wins.

6:45: Arizona State @ Oregon (ESPN/FSN Arizona/FSN West): While some bunch of idiots at ABC/ESPN Central Command decided that UCLA-Arizona would be worth broadcasting this got stuck on two regional FSNs. Fortunately for the rest of us, ESPN managed to get the national rights to the game. I expect a pretty good game, but the Oregon crowd is pretty loud and though uniforms would be enough to dispirit any opposition before the game. Arizona State passed their first test last week, but I think this Oregon team is just too good to lose to them.

8:00:

  • Florida State @ Boston College (Gameplan/ABC): Here’s what I know about this game. 1) FSU isn’t very good. 2) Matt Ryan is pretty darn good. Eagles cruise.
  • Oregon State @ Southern California (ABC/Gameplan): Once again, ABC subjects us to crap. Recent losses notwithstanding, Trojans win.
  • Texas Agricultural & Mechanical @ Oklahoma (Gameplan/ABC): TAMU is slightly less dispirited than Nebraska is despite also having a lame duck coach. But it will be rockin’ in Norman on this Saturday night and I think they’re better anyway. Sooners win.
  • South Carolina @ Arkansas (ESPN2): Despite their consecutive losses, South Carolina is probably still a better than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have spent the past two week drubbing lesser opponents (Ole Miss and FIU, both worse than Vandy) while South Carolina is coming off a close overtime loss to Tennessee. Provided they show up, they have an edge I think and I’ll take them here.

10:00: Washington State @ California (FSN): Cal gets back on track by blowing out the Cougars.

That’s all I got folks. Look for bowl predictions sometime Sunday or Monday.

Week Ten

Oh man, I am so behind on college football analysis. I apologize profusely and hope this week’s column earns my way back into your hate list. I guess I’ll start by covering the more interesting scores of the last two weeks.

Rutgers 30, #2 South Florida 27: Cinderella’s spell wore off on October 18, unless you still count Rutgers as a Cinderella team from last season. Essentially, the Big East pulled an SEC and eliminated itself from a shot at the national championship. Bulls QB Grothe (which is probably pronounced like the name of German poet Goethe) was sacked seven times in the second half, and the Rutgers’ O-line stopped the nation’s leading sacker (George Selvie with 11.5) from reaching Scarlet Knight QB Teel. It didn’t help that the Bulls dug themselves a 4th-and-37 hole with a sack and a penalty on the final play of the game.

Connecticut 21, Louisville 17: I’m spending way too much time on the Big East, but Connecticut’s run is pretty impressive. They joined Division I-A in 2000 and the conference in 2004, and they are currently 7-1. That’s better than highly touted South Florida. Their records in 2000 and 2001? 3-8 and 2-9.

#23 Connecticut 22, #10 South Florida 15: (See the last two summaries.)

Temple W, Northern Illinois/Akron/Miami (OH) L: Temple is on a three-game win streak!? The last time Temple won more than four games was in 1990, when they went 7-4. The Owls probably have the worst historical record of any Division I-A program, so you have to feel good when they actually do something. You have to hand it to them; most people would give up after so many years of awful football.

And now, the guys who don’t lose all of their games any more!


Vanderbilt 17, #6 South Carolina 6: On to the SEC (finally). I’m really not sure how this happened, because I was driving to Baton Rouge during this game. It is interesting to note that this was Spurrier’s first loss to the Commodores. He notched two with Duke, ten with Florida, and two with South Carolina before the debacle on October 20. This threw the SEC East into total shambles, or so we thought untill…

Alabama 41, #21 Tennessee 14: The Tide opened with a successful onside kick and never looked back. Alabama put 510 yards on the Volunteer defense, 363 from the arm of John Parker Wilson. Thankfully, the boost in confidence resulting from this game will set up the Saban Nation for heartbreaking (or humorous) losses against the Two Tigers of the West.

Tennessee 27, #16 South Carolina 24: Both teams rebounded for a thriller in Knoxville. The Gamecocks Succop’ed a loss in the second overtime, much to the delight of the Volunteer faithful.

#4 LSU 30, #17 Auburn 24: In one of the worst officiating blunders in college football history, the scores of the two teams were reversed, robbing ol’ Tubs of a perfectly good road victory.

#15 Florida 45, #7 Kentucky 37: Two of the top tier teams in an SEC shootout. These are top tier teams, right? Well…

#18 Georgia 42, #11 Florida 30 and Mississippi State 31, #14 Kentucky 14: ….maybe not. Georgia and Tennessee are now on top of the SEC East, and Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina are on the bottom. This season hasn’t run out of surprises yet. Also, MSU coach Sylvester Croom has probably earned himself another season of employment.


#1 Ohio State 24, Michigan State 17: The Buckeyes slid by another conference opponent, and the voters keep them atop the polls. Incredible. To their credit, they did roll over Penn State. Penn State won the student section competition, though.


#13 Kansas 19, Colorado 14 and #9 Kansas 19, Texas A&M 11: The Jayhawks notched two wins over unranked Big 12 opponents and are 8-0 for the first time since…1909. Their last 7-0 runs were ended by Kansas State (1995) and Oklahoma (1968). They’ve already beaten the Wildcats, and they don’t play the Sooners this year. Historically, they are looking pretty good.

#5 Oregon 24, #12 USC 17: This is probably the sweetest score in recent history. I don’t know how the sports media could stand to publish the information. Finally, USC is out of the running for the Pac-10 championship. (Of course, they have the absence of John David Booty as an excuse.) The Ducks face Arizona State this Saturday to determine the conference. The Sun Devils will probably win, but for the sake of looking smart, I hope they don’t.


Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…
#2 Boston College 14, #8 Virginia Tech 10: Apparently fourth-quarter miracles are more impressive than sixty-minute pummelings. (LSU 48, Virginia Tech 7? Do any of the voters remember that?) To close out the season, BC hosts Florida State, travels to Maryland and Clemson, and returns for Miami. If the Eagles don’t fall somewhere during that period and play for the national championship as a result, I’m going to be upset.

If you are still reading at this point, here’s a list of the big games this Saturday along with some quick-fire analysis. I’m getting tired and hungry, or this would be longer. All times are Eastern.

#21 Wisconsin at #1 Ohio State (12): The Buckeyes have one last test before heading to Ann Arbor on November 17. They’ll pass.

Nebraska at #9 Kansas (12:30): It’s possible that Nebraska will right their ship, but I doubt it. Kansas improves to 9-0.

Vanderbilt at #20 Florida (12:30): The Gators should put an end to the Commodore nonsense in the East.

Navy at Notre Dame (2:30, NBC): Navy hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 1963. They have come close to ending the streak only a handfull of times, and this year could very well be the one. The Midshipmen have no defense, as their 52-59 loss to Delaware demonstrated. However, they do have an offense, something the Fighting Irish lack. Weis’ squad hasn’t managed more than 19 in any of their games. Even luck cannot propel Notre Dame over Navy. I hope the entire Academy runs onto the field after the win.

#12 Michigan at Michigan State (3:30, ABC): The Spartans have come so close to an upset this season. Cut ’em a break, will ya Carr?

#3 LSU at #17 Alabama (5, CBS): Nick Saban gets walloped by his former employer. Boston College stays ranked above LSU even after the Tiger domination of the Tide.

“You guys played a good game. Have fun cleaning up after we trash ‘Bama.”

#4 Arizona State at #5 Oregon (6:40, ESPN): It’s the Pac-10, so no one cares.

Florida State at #2 Boston College (8, ABC): ABC is hosting a slew of day games and night games? That’s awesome.

Oregon State at #19 USC (8, ABC): Get this trash off of television, please.

That’s all I have for this week. Hopefully I can be more faithful to you guys from here onward. Oh, one other thing. I lost the challenge to Tim. My computer crashed a few weeks before the finish, but I was so far behind that I conceded. Therefore, I’ll be sporting a pink T to the Auburn-Tennessee Tech game. Don’t worry; there will be pictures.

Q: Is it worse to look like this guy or wear pink to a football game?

A: Wearing pink is still worse.