Rating the Non-Conference Slate 2008: Prologue

It’s almost that time again. I’d start, but the Big East and some other teams haven’t released their schedules yet so we can’t finish the rankings.

You may recall the series I did last year, where the rankings were almost completely arbitrary. This year, A5 and I went through and assigned each BCS team a ranking on a scale of 0.25-1, where 0.25 was the least desirable and 1 the most desirable. “Desirability”, of course, is still subjective, but generally our criteria were “would I look forward to playing this team?”, “how consistent has this team been in the past 5-6 years?”, and “how good was this team last year?” This means the rankings have a good mix of last year’s flashes in the pan (Mississippi State) and traditional powers that had bad years (Notre Dame).

Since we’ve already ranked all the teams, I can tell you which teams got 1’s and where each conference stands. So first, the teams: Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Notre Dame, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Southern Cal, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee.

The conferences ranked as such:

  1. SEC (0.854 average)
  2. Big 12 (0.75)
  3. ACC (0.729)
  4. Big Ten (0.727)
  5. Pac-10 (0.725)
  6. Big East (0.656)

Is there some bias here? A little. But the main thing hurting the Pac-10 is that the bottom of the Pac-10 is pretty terrible: Washington State, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona got 0.5 or less, and so with 10 teams this affects their average a lot.

Anyway, once we have complete schedules we’ll start the whole series. Until next time!

Bowl Games: Dessert

Well, since it seems Hawaii is completely outmatched by UGA, it’s time to get the last 5 games out o the way. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

  • Oklahoma vs. West Virginia, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 2, 8:00, FOX): It’s hard to get a read on these teams as they head into this game. West Virginia certainly backed their way into the post-season, as the vaunted Slaton-White duo looked pretty flat. I like Oklahoma here not because of anything they do particularly well, but just because of how West Virginia looked against Pitt.
  • Virginia Tech vs. Kansas, FedEx Orange Bowl (Jan. 3, 8:00, FOX): I really don’t give KU much of a chance here. They lost to the only other decent opponent they’ve played all year and I think Virginia Tech is just as good, if not better, than Missouri.
  • Ball State vs. Rutgers, International Bowl (Jan. 5, 12:00, ESPN2): Lost in the shuffle of bowl season, there are so many bowls that they have to squeeze a couple in between the BCS games. At any rate, as long as Rutgers bothers to show up they should win easily.
  • Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, GMAC Bowl (Jan. 6, 8:00, ESPN): A few years ago, I might’ve liked BGSU here, but the C-USA runner-ups are almost certainly better.
  • Ohio State vs. Louisiana State, BCS National Championship Game (Jan. 7, 8:00, FOX): And here we go. Some observers may say that OSU should be favored here due to being number 1, but let’s face it – Ohio State is ranked first only because they had the good sense to lose 3-4 weeks before everyone else finished their season. I don’t like LSU because Florida won last year, I like LSU because they’re a good football team who are, in my mind, the cream of the two-loss crop.

Anyway, it’s been a crazy year kids. My next football related item will probably be my out-of-conference schedule round-up, which will hopefully be a lot less depressing than it was last year.

Bowl Games: Main Course

All right folks, though this is being posted before the end of tonight’s game, I’ve updated my main predictions and my competition with my erstwhile brother, who is way behind in predictions. I even managed to get the Emerald Bowl score completely correct.

Anyway, now it’s time for the New Year’s Eve and Day games, the main course of the bowl season buffet. As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Dec. 31:

  • Air Force vs. California, Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12:30, ESPN): Well, for starters, it’s a bowl named in honor of the armed forces, so obviously it confers Air Force an advantage. Also, Cal is terrible and was last seen losing to Stanford. So I’m calling Air Force.
  • Oregon vs. South Florida, Brut Sun Bowl (2:00, CBS): I don’t expect a lot of points here, at least out of Oregon at any rate. This probably won’t be very exciting, but the alternatives abound. (Not really.) USF wins.
  • Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech, Roady’s Humanitarian Bowl (2:00, ESPN2): Woooooo. Predicing GT out of blatant homerism more than anything else. I can only how we bother to show up unlike the last time we were on the west coast.
  • Kentucky vs. Florida State, Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl (4:00, ESPN): It should come as no surprise I’m picking Kentucky here. FSU will do good to score as many points as they had players suspended, in all likelihood.
  • Oklahoma State vs. Indiana, Insight Bowl (5:30, NFL): The latest in bowl games you probably can’t watch even if you wanted to! Yes, that’s right kids, Indiana’s return to post-season won’t be seen by you! I picked Indiana and I can’t remember why, so there.
  • Clemson vs. Auburn, Chick-fil-a Bowl (7:30, ESPN): This is probably, by far, the most worthwhile game of the day. I will guarantee you that the Tigers will win! Hah! See what I did there? I bet no one’s thought of that before!
    (Ahem.) Anyway, I personally like Clemson here. They have a pretty darn good offense, and Auburn has been inconsistent at best.

Jan. 1:

  • Wisconsin vs. Tennessee, Outback Bowl (11:00, ESPN): Who’s idea was it to have games before noon on New Year’s Day? I’ve been trying to figure this out for years. Anyway, I’ve thought Wisconsin is an overrated team in a bad conference, while Tennessee is pretty decent. So I like the Vols here.
  • Missouri vs. Arkansas, AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic (11:30, FOX): Missouri: likes to pass. Arkansas: can’t pass. I think the Mizzou will just air it out over Arkansas’s heads all day long, though there’s always a chance Darren McFadden could make it interesting.
  • Florida vs. Michigan, Capital One Bowl (1:00, ABC): I’ll be honest here. I don’t think Michigan stands a chance. We watched fast, athletic teams run all over this Michigan team all year and I don’t see any reason why they’ll suddenly start succeeding here.
  • Virginia vs. Texas Tech, Konica Minolta Gator Bowl (1:00, CBS): The Gator hosts an over-achieving ACC team the second year in a row. I don’t think there’s any way UVA can keep up with the Texas Tech offense.
  • Illinois vs. Southern California, The Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi (4:30, ABC): Here’s another blow-out worthy game, as once again I’m giving the Big Ten little chance. (Notice a theme here?)
  • Georgia vs. Hawaii, AllState Sugar Bowl (8:30, FOX): Sigh. My heart says Hawaii while my brain says Georgia. So, against everything I stand for, I’m picking the Dogs.

Anyway, sorry for the rush job there, haven’t lots of time. I’ll be back late New Year’s Day to take you through the finale of this bowl season.

Bowl Games: Hors d’Å“uvre

And we’re now starting to get to the decent stuff in this buffet that is bowl season. Also, A5 and I have put together a little contest, and I’m beating him by one game so far.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

  • Central Michigan vs. Purdue, Motor City Bowl (Dec. 26, 7:30, ESPN): This one is just underway, but that doesn’t really change the fact I predicted Purdue to win here. Helps that Purdue already beat them 45-22 this season. Of course, as I write this CMU goes up 3-0.
  • Arizona State vs. Texas, Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27, 8:00, ESPN): I always consider this the first real game of bowl season. This year is no exception, as we get our first matchup of marquee names, as well as the first with two BCS conference teams. I like Arizona State here for no particular reason.
  • Boston College vs. Michigan State, Champs Sports Bowl (Dec. 28, 5:00, ESPN): I doubt this is where the Eagles wanted to end up, while I’m sure Mich. State is more than happy to be here. Will “happy to be here” be enough for them to beat the Eagles and Matt Ryan playing in his last collegiate game? I doubt it.
  • Texas Christian vs. Houston, Texas Bowl (Dec. 28, 8:00, NFL): TCU has won the last 7 games in this series, including 4 since 2000. Seeing as how it’s on the NFL network, you probably won’t get to see them go to 8 straight.
  • Maryland vs. Oregon State, Emerald Bowl (Dec. 28, 8:30, ESPN): I still don’t really think Maryland is that good, as they demonstrated by them losing 4 of their last 6. Meanwhile, Oregon State’s last 7 is only blemished by a loss to Southern Cal. I like the Beavers in a close one.
  • Wake Forest vs. Connecticut, Meineke Car Care Bowl (Dec. 29, 1:00, ESPN): Yet, I like Wake over UConn. Both teams are considered exceedingly lucky. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but when it comes to skill, I like the Deacons.
  • Central Florida vs. Mississippi State, Autozone Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29, 4:30, ESPN): Not sure I can quantify why I like UCF here, as Miss State should be about on par talent-wise. UCF does have one major advantage at running back, as they bring in the nation’s #1 running back, Kevin Smith. Miss State sports the nation’s 65th ranked rushing defense (at 159 yards/game), which isn’t all that great.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Pennsylvania State, Valero Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29, 8:00, ESPN): TAMU is definitely an upset pick here, but they do already have a new coach in place and are playing in the state of Texas, which should give them a definite home-field advantage.
  • Colorado vs. Alabama, Petrosun Independence Bowl (Dec. 30, 8:00, ESPN): Battle of 6-6! Only one team advances to a winning record, and we all know how much Bama is paying for those these days. Perhaps I’m letting my biases get in the way, but I like the Buffs here.

Anyway, two more bowl preview posts coming up for y’all. First set will be our main course of the 31st and 1st, followed by a rich dessert plate for the post New Year’s BCS bowls and national title game.