It’s that time of the year again, folks! I had an abysmal year last year (50% overall) so I’m hoping to improve on that this year. For now, we’ll start with this year’s pre-Christmas bowls.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 18
2:00: Texas-El Paso vs. Brigham Young (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): UTEP had a fairly typical year for UTEP, beating up on patsies and getting an inexplicable win over a C-USA favorite (in this case, their win over SMU). BYU’s year appeared to be going off the rails until they rediscovered their offense. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is also when they started playing the bottom dwellers of the Mountain West, though they did put up a fight in their 1-point loss to bitter rivals Utah. That said, I’m buying stock in the BYU offensive renaissance and hoping to see it pay off against UTEP.
Previous meetings: These former WAC foes met every year from 1966 to 1998 (skipping 1995), and BYU holds a commanding 28-7-1 lead, including a 31-14 win in their last meeting in 1998.
Last bowl game: This is BYU’s 6th straight bowl game, a streak starting in 2005 with a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. Every trip thereafter also was to the Las Vegas Bowl, so this marks the first time since 2001 they’ve gone somewhere else. Last year, they trounced Oregon State 44-20. Meanwhile, this is UTEP’s first trip to a bowl since the 2005 GMAC Bowl, which they lost to Toledo 44-13.

5:30: Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois (Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): Northern Illinois was having the season this year. The kind of year where everything was coming together, including an undefeated run through the MAC and a rushing offense that just ran every which way against everyone. Well, except Miami (of Ohio) in the MAC title game, which they lost. Then they lost their coach to a team they beat this year. I think Fresno is probably more talented, but let’s face it, no matter what they say this is a major let down.
Previous meetings: Somewhat surprisingly, these schools have met 4 times, though not since 1991. The series is split at 2-2.
Last bowl game: Fresno sports a 3 game bowl streak coming into this one, starting with a (sigh) 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in the 2007 Humanitarian, and then two trips to the New Mexico Bowl, where they lost last year to Wyoming 35-28. NIU has a two year bowl streak, including last year’s 27-3 loss in the last ever International Bowl.

9:00: Ohio vs. Troy (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Troy didn’t win the Sun Belt this year, but they still get to go New Orleans. There’s worse things in the world. Ohio heads down from the MAC thanks to some last minute bowl swapping shenanigans. Troy had a relatively disappointing year (mostly because they’re favorites for the Sun Belt crown every year these days). Ohio lost their shot at the MAC East due to a shocking upset of them by Kent State, allowing Miami to sneak in and then upset NIU. Crazy. Anyway, Troy doesn’t play much defense seemingly but they do score a whole ton of points and I don’t think the Bobcats will be able to keep up. Both teams may score more than 30 though.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Ohio lost last year’s Little Ceasar’s Bowl 21-17 to ex-MAC team Marshall and Troy lost last year’s GMAC bowl 44-41, but extends their bowl streak to three. In fact, including this year is Troy’s 5th bowl game. Not bad for a program that started playing major college football in 2001.

Tuesday, December 21
8:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville (St. Petersburg Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL): Even if that league is the Big East, giving up less than 20 points per game is a pretty good defense. And that’s exactly what Louisville’s done. Southern Miss can score, but they’ve struggled a tad against better opponents. I expect a 17-14 like contest here.
Previous meetings: These two played every year from 1978 to 2002 first as independents, and then as members of the old pre-Big East poached Conference USA. Southern Miss leads the all time series 15-8-1. They last met, though, in 2009 where Louisville won 25-23.
Last bowl game :Louisville was last seen beating Wake Forest 24-13 in the 2006 Orange Bowl, where after they disappeared into the wilderness. Southern Miss is would be there in the consecutive bowl game lists, having been every year since 1997 except for 2001 (though since they were 6-5, they would’ve gone these days, but that’s another discussion). Anyway, the last two years they were in the New Orleans Bowl, where they lost to Dwight Dasher and MTSU last year 42-32.

Wednesday, December 22
8:00: Boise State vs. Utah (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV): Boise recovered from their disastrous loss to Nevada by getting back to what they did several other times this year: pound their WAC opposition into the dust. Utah, meanwhile, has only two losses but I feel they’re very telling: a blowout losses to TCU and Notre Dame. Not encouraging. I like Boise in a rout here (and with the current line I even have Boise covering the 18).
Previous meetings: Their last meeting was in a 2006 game at Utah, which Boise won 36-3. The two also met in 1998 and 1999, with Boise winning both those encounters as well.
Last bowl game: Utah beat Cal in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, and has been to a bowl every year since 2003. Boise beat TCU in last year’s Fiesta Bowl and sports its own streak dating back to 2002. (It’d be two games longer if they had to gone to a bowl in 2001, which they didn’t despite being 8-4.)

Thursday, December 23
8:00: Navy vs. San Diego State (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): San Diego State is pretty decent this year, which is why you keep hearing Brady Hoke come up in coaching rumors. I ordinarily like Navy teams in bowl games, but I don’t think SDSU will be taking anything for granted against the home crowd, and should have a size advantage on the lines and the passing game that can expose Navy’s secondary. I don’t think SDSU will win going away, but I think they will win.
Previous meetings: They’ve met twice, in 1994 and 1997. SDSU won both games, the latter 45-31 and the former 56-14. Remember, Navy wasn’t very good back then.
Last bowl game: Navy defeated Missouri 35-13 in last year’s Texas Bowl, and has gone to a bowl every year since 2003. Meanwhile, this is SDSU’s first appearance since the 1998 Las Vegas Bowl, which they lost to UNC 20-13.

Friday, December 24
8:00: Hawaii vs. Tusla (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Both these teams can score. Hawaii, of course, likes to throw the ball and the Tulsa defense has been awfully obliging this year, yielding 305.7 yards/game (good for 119th nationally). Tulsa may keep it close early put Hawaii should be able to pull away.
Previous meetings: Hawaii is 5-2 all-time against Tulsa, with all but their first appearance in 1992 coming from Tulsa’s stint in the WAC. Their last meeting was in 2004, a 44-16 Hawaii win.
Last bowl game: Hawaii was last seen in a 49-21 loss to Notre Dame in the 2008 Hawaii Bowl. Their sub-.500 record in 2009 snapped a modest 3-game streak. Tulsa also lost their 4-game streak last year, with their last bowl appearance in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, in which they handily beat Ball State 45-13.

The bowl predictions page should be updated with all predictions soon!

Hopefully uploading this early enough that it’ll get posted to Facebook before tomorrow evening. (Oh snap!) Anyway, here’s my final take on trying to figure out who is going where. (Note that the main page will be updated as announcements are made throughout the day.)

The BCS

Nothing changes here except the conference winners are now known. I’m actually pretty excited about Wisconsin-TCU and VPI-Stanford, not to mention the title game. I’m trying to figure out how UConn isn’t going to get obliterated by Oklahoma, but them’s the breaks for the Fiesta, but don’t feel to sorry for them as they’ll get first crack at this thing next year. (And, honestly, you shouldn’t really feel sorry for big bowl games anyway. Being a BCS bowl game commissioner is probably the cushiest job on the planet.)

For the below I’m going to start with conferences where things are well-known and go from there. At this point, the ACC and SEC probably have the most uncertainty, so I’ll do them last.

Big East

With UConn’s 19-16 win over South Florida, all Big East teams should get into Big East affiliated bowls, provided the Champs Sports likes its chances with West Virginia over Notre Dame. Since the Champs only gets to take Notre Dame once every four years under their new deal with the Big East, they may elect to take a well-traveling Mountaineer posse and try their luck with ND next year. From there, it’s pretty much just letting things fall where they may. Pitt will probably head to the Car Care Bowl, and Syracuse has already accepted an invite to the Pinstripe Bowl. The only other question is how the Compass and St. Petersburg Bowls shake out. Right now I have the St. Pete wanting to get USF (again), and so sticking the Compass with Louisville. It could easily work out the other way, though.

Big 12

Oklahoma won the whole thing, and the Cotton has already grabbed Texas A&M. So we first go to the Alamo, which is basically picking between Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Since the Alamo just started a new deal with the Pac-10 and Big 12, I have to think they’ll grab their last chance to take the Cornhuskers, which relegates Oklahoma State to the Insight. That said, those two could easily switch places. Either way, though, I think Missouri lands in the Holiday Bowl. With Kansas State already in with the Pinstripe Bowl, this leaves two slots (the Texas Bowl and TicketCity Bowl) for two teams, Baylor and Texas Tech. I think they’ll go in that order.

Pac-10

The Pac-10 managed to avoid its nightmare scenario Saturday, with Oregon beating Oregon State and Washington managing to hang on for dear life in the Apple Cup. Oregon and Stanford will be in the BCS barring any shenanigans that see Stanford getting passed in the polls, so that leaves Arizona and Washington for two bowl spots, the Alamo and Holiday. I don’t really know why, but I’m putting Arizona in the Alamo and Washington in the Holiday. I don’t think Arizona fans will be particularly excited with their overtime loss to Arizona State, while after the thrill of victory Washington fans may realize beating Wazzou by a touchdown isn’t really that much of an accomplishment. However, among bowl types I think Arizona probably has the better reputation and the Alamo gets first pick.

Mid-Majors and Independents

Several mid-major conference games are basically set. The New Mexico Bowl will pit UTEP and BYU, Utah will (probably) face Boise State in Las Vegas, Navy will face San Diego State in the Poinsettia, Hawaii will face Tulsa, and Army will play Southern Methodist at the Armed Forces Bowl in SMU’s home stadium. The other WAC bids are basically set as well, with Nevada going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, leaving Fresno to head up to Boise.

The Mountain West already announced its bids earlier this week. The only one I didn’t mention above is Air Force in the Independence.

After its win in the C-USA title game, Central Florida is headed to the Liberty Bowl. From there, the other C-USA bids fell into place, with Tulsa heading to Hawaii, ECU heading up to the Military Bowl, and Southern Mississippi headed to the St. Petersburg. Astute readers will note that the C-USA slot in the New Orleans Bowl is not filled- this is due to SMU going to the Armed Forces Bowl, filling a slot left open by the lack of a Mountain West team.

With MTSU beating FIU yesterday, the Sun Belt has three bowl eligible teams: those two and Troy. Thanks to the Big Ten being a team short, this gives the Sun Belt three slots to fill: New Orelans, godaddy.com, and Little Ceasars. I’m currently putting Troy in the godaddy.com as it’s in nearby Mobile, AL. From there, I’m sending MTSU to the Little Ceasars since they went to New Orleans last year, leaving FIU to go to the Big Easy.

What about Notre Dame? Well, if the Champs takes West Virginia, most sources seem to think the Sun Bowl will take the Irish. I agree with this train of thought, especially if it sets up the Notre Dame-Miami matchup that the Sun Bowl folks really coveted (until Miami lost last weekend and fired their coach, anyway).

This leads us to the MAC. The MAC has six qualified teams: conference champ Miami, runner-up Northern Illinois, and then Ohio, Temple, Toledo, and Western Michigan. The MAC has three guaranteed bids (Little Ceasars, godaddy.com, and Humanitarian) and due to shortages in other conferences there’s one overall at-large bid (New Orleans) after I take care of the major conference teams plus any backup tie-ins. Right now, I’m putting Toledo in the Little Ceasars due to a rumored need to sell tickets and Toledo is the closest team to Detroit. I’m then putting the champ in Mobile, followed by NIU to the Humanitarian. This leaves three teams for the one New Orleans slot, and of those three I’m picking Ohio. This means the only two eligible teams not in bowls this year, according to me, will be Temple and Western Michigan.

Okay, those were the easy ones. Let’s talk about the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC, in that order.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is extremely likely to get two teams into the BCS. Of the three co-champions, Wisconsin will go to the Rose barring any poll shenanigans tomorrow. The Sugar will get the first two picks from the at-large pool regardless of how Auburn and Oregon finish as the Rose is expected to take TCU. This puts Ohio State into the Sugar for me, leaving Michigan State to lament its fate in the Capital One Bowl.

Following the top three, we have the remaining five eligible teams. Three of them were 4-4 in conference (Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State) while the other two were 3-5 (Michigan and Northwestern). A lot of signs have flipped recently, pointing Penn State towards the Outback bowl, where I originally had Iowa slotted. This gets us to the Big Ten #4/5 slot, occupied by the Insight and Gator Bowls. The Gator wanted to make a splash with Florida-Penn State in its first year of its Big Ten-SEC matchup, but it looks like the Outback will steal that. Fair or not, I think they’ll reach for the Michigan “name”, sending Iowa to the desert. The Texas Bowl is then left to contemplate Illinois and Northwestern, with the TicketCity picking after. Despite losing at Fresno Friday night, I’m still putting Illinois in Houston, leaving Northwestern for the TicketCity.

SEC

It starts easy. Auburn in the title game, Arkansas to the Sugar, Alabama in the Capital One, and LSU in the Cotton. Things start to get screwy in the Outback. I originally had South Carolina slotted there, but the Internet has exploded with rumors that the Outback execs want to matchup Florida with Penn State. I’ve bowed to this pressure, leaving the Chick-fil-a with a tough choice. I’m not aware of any SEC rules that say the championship game loser must go to a certain level of bowl, but the conventional wisdom says South Carolina will go there. Personally, I don’t like it because it’s in the same building where they just got demolished by Auburn, and I’ve had Mississippi State pegged to this game for awhile because they had a good year and a bright future with a pretty energized fanbase (that also hasn’t been since 1999). I’m overriding my gut on this one and putting South Carolina here, though.

The Chick-fil-a’s pick also affects the Gator and Music City Bowls. If the Chick-fil-a takes South Carolina, then the Gator will take Tennessee and the Music City will take Mississippi State. If the Chick-fil-a takes Mississippi State, then the Gator would probably take South Carolina, putting the Vols in the Music City. Regardless of any of the above, I have Georgia in the Liberty and Kentucky in the BBVA Compass.

ACC

My teams’s conference is also the most complicated. I can’t find anything concrete on which way any of the ACC bowls are leaning other than the Chick-fil-a, which said it’d take the title game loser, so that’s where Florida State is going. As I lamented Friday, I have no idea what is happening with anyone else. At this point I’m just sticking to my guns. I’m putting NC State in the Champs Sports and thinking the Sun will stick with its original idea, Miami, since they will probably get Notre Dame. The Car Care is finally tired of UNC it seems, so I’m slotting Clemson into there. This leads us to the Music City. This is sort of the most desired bowl for Georgia Tech fans at the current moment, so most of the message board rumors I’ve seen focus on this. I still don’t really think it’s going to happen, so I’m putting North Carolina there, putting us in the Independence. The Military will be overjoyed that Maryland is still available through all that (and really, the Terps are the wild card here, but they had abysmal attendance (around 30,000 a game) at home this year so that’s not helping them), once again exiling Boston College out to San Francisco. Note that if the Champs or Sun gets frisky and takes the Terps or Canes before I project that really jumbles things up.

That’s all I have for now. Note at the top I linked to the final set of predictions, any changes and awarding of asterisks will happen on the main page that will be updated throughout the day as I hear more confirmations. And, of course, the ESPN bowl coverage kicks off at 8:15 Eastern tomorrow night, starting with the BCS bowls for 45 minutes and then the overall bowl selection show. Many major conferences will embargo their bowl announcements until then, so we may not hear anything other than the MAC and Sun Belt announcements until then.

Late once again, but it did at least give a chance to absorb all the bowl announcements from this week. So let’s do this.

The BCS

As usual, we’ll start with the BCS. With Boise’s upset, there were a few changes, to say the last. The top of the pile stays the same, though Auburn did finally pick up enough votes to pass Oregon. With Arkansas upsetting LSU, that also set up the Razorbacks to get into the Sugar Bowl, which will still probably take Ohio State as an at-large. From there, things get tricky. Wisconsin and TCU slot into the Rose, the winner of the Big 12 title game will go to the Fiesta, and the winner of the ACC title game to the Orange. This leaves two slots, one in the Orange and one in the Fiesta. The Orange gets first crack at the remaining pool of teams. However, this pool, as things currently stand, is limited to two teams. Stanford is currently #4 in the BCS, and as such is guaranteed a BCS bid. The Big East winner is as well. Neither is a super attractive option for either bowl (and until Boise and LSU lost I thought Stanford was going to be shut out of the BCS). Conventional wisdom at the moment says that if UConn wins the Big East, then the Orange will take the most attractive TV match-up and get Stanford, leaving the Fiesta with UConn. However, if West Virginia emerges at the top of the Big East pile and Virginia Tech wins the ACC, then the Orange could set up the first meeting of VPI and WVU since 2005. Right now I think UConn will tomorrow so the latter scenario is a moot point.

ACC

The ACC is a jumbled mess right now. Well, not at the top: the winner of the title game will go to the Orange and the loser will go to the Chick-fil-a. From there, it’s an absolute mess. I’ll just go down the list of ACC bowls and say which teams I think are possibilities for each game:

1. Champs Sports Bowl: NC State, Maryland, Miami
2. Sun Bowl: Miami, Maryland, NC State
3. Car Care Bowl: NC State, Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland
4. Music City Bowl: Clemson, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech
5. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina
6. Military Bowl: Maryland, Clemson, North Carolina, Boston College
7. Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College, Georgia Tech

The rumor mill isn’t much better. What you see on the page are my best guesses, but really almost anything could happen. NC State’s loss to Maryland combined with Miami’s loss and subsequent firing of Randy Shannon really wrecked the ACC bowl picture and it’s tough to say what will happen to those three schools. (Somewhat ironically, the fact that GT didn’t get blown out as most folks predicted may have actually helped them in light of the above and also Clemson’s blowout loss to South Carolina.)

Big East

Ugh. With Notre Dame’s win over USC last weekend I expect them to get an invite to the Champs Sports Bowl, which pushes everything else in the Big East down and even gives them an extra team in Louisville. Otherwise, I don’t really want to talk about this much because all the teams play tomorrow and everything could change.

Big 12

At this point, the Big 12 almost certainly won’t get two teams into the BCS, so the Cotton went ahead and grabbed Texas A&M. This means the Big 12 title game loser will probably end up in the Alamo Bowl. At issue now are the Insight and Holiday Bowls, which will likely be choosing between Oklahoma State and Missouri. From there, the Big 12 should shake out predictably, with K-State already in the Pinstripe Bowl and Baylor and Texas Tech remaining for the Texas and TicketCity Bowls. I like Baylor getting rewarded for their good season by getting the Texas Bow bid, leaving Texas Tech for the game in the Cotton Bowl that isn’t the Cotton Bowl.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward. Wisconsin and Ohio State go to the Rose and Sugar, leaving the Capital One for Michigan State. I then like Penn State to the Outback Bowl, but they could swap places with Iowa and end up in the Gator Bowl. I then like Michigan for the Insight, Illinois to the Texas, and Northwestern left at the TicketCity. Easy. (Now watch me be totally wrong.)

Pac-10

Arizona State is 6-6, but played 2 DI-AA teams (despite the fact that Pac-10 teams only have 3 OOC games anyway) and is not eligible. This means there are currently 3 Pac-10 teams eligible: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Washington and Oregon State can both get eligible with wins in their rivalry games, but I think it goes without saying that one of those teams is a lot more likely to win tomorrow than the other.

SEC

So the SEC will probably get its customary two BCS bids barring disaster in the SEC title game tomorrow. From there, Alabama will probably get the nod for the Capital One, leaving South Carolina for the Outback and LSU for the Cotton. I like Mississippi State to get the invitation to the Chick-fil-a, followed by the Gator reluctantly taking Florida. The rumor mill really likes Tennessee to the Music City, so that works for me, followed by UGA to the Liberty and, finally, Kentucky to the Compass.

Mid-majors

Many mid-major bids have gone out already. The problem is the rumored moves and moves that have already happened. For instance, UTEP (from Conference USA) is in the New Mexico Bowl, which means that there was likely a swap with the New Orleans Bowl which will probably send a WAC team there. (The details of the swap are not yet known for certain though. There could be other swaps as well, engineered by the conferences and the bowls owned by ESPN (which are many). Also, it looks like Boise will likely end up at the Fight Hunger Bowl, eschewing the home blue turf, which may send Nevada there. Miscellaneous MAC teams will probably fill the gaps left by the Pac-10 and Big Ten, though I don’t know which ones will go where. Fortunately for bowl directors, though, there will be enough teams, and I predict there will be one extra.

Look for the final predictions to go up late Saturday or early Sunday, as by the time ESPN goes on the air with their selection show most of the bids will probably already be known.