I’m off to a much better start this year as compared to last, but will it hold up over the next week (when the vast majority of games are)? Stay tuned and see!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Sunday, December 26
8:30: Florida International vs. Toledo (Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): It’s tough to really do predictions for these sorts of games, as they’re not exactly teams I spend every week of the season watching. When it comes to teams like this, one has to sort of ignore how badly they get beat up by the teams they collect checks from and look at their conferences, which is the reason why I like Toledo here.
Previous meetings: Somewhat surprisingly, these teams have met twice, with FIU winning at Toledo in 2008 but losing at home last year, 41-31.
Last bowl game: Given their short history (DI-A since 2004) it’s perhaps not a surprise this is FIU’s first bowl game. Toledo had a pretty good thing going back in the late-90’s and early 2000’s but they haven’t been a bowl since the 2005 GMAC Bowl, wherein they beat UTEP 45-13. This is also their 4th appearance in what used to be the Motor City Bowl, which they last made the trip to in 2004.

Monday, December 27
5:00: Georgia Tech vs. Air Force (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN2): As all three of my readers have probably noticed, I generally avoid picking Tech games. This is mostly because of two reasons. First, well, it’s just bad form to root against your own team, even if logically they are underdogs. Second, I don’t generally like picking them to win because I think it’ll jinx them even though I know better. So, when it comes to situations like this, I decide the latter is the lesser of the two evils and predict a narrow win for the good guys. We’ll see if it works.
Most of the talk surrounding this game has been related to the two option offenses playing each other in a bowl game that could actually run under three hours. This is possible, for sure. But these are also two different option offenses. Georgia Tech runs what Paul Johnson calls the “spread option”, which is an option offense run from the “flexbone” formation that has more in common with the run-n-shoot principle of “getting the ball to players in space” than with the 1970’s Oklahoma wishbone (or the 1950’s GT wishbone, for that matter). Air Force will also run some flexbone, but they have a more “pure” historical option family tree and also mix in some option plays from other formations, from the classic wishbone and I-formations to the shotgun.
Georgia Tech will be missing at least 5 players. The first and foremost is senior QB Josh Nesbitt, who is still out from the broken arm he suffered in the Virginia Tech game. Tech will also be missing two starters and two backups due to academic issues. Mario Edwards is the missing starting safety, which is bad due to the general lack of talent and depth on defense. Stephen Hill has not had a great year, but he is a tall physical presence at WR that will be missed.
Air Force has given up around 22 points per game but allows close to 5 yards per carry. While they shut down the Navy offense earlier this year (which is still very similar to Tech’s) I’m not sure how much of that was AF or how much was bad play on the part of the Midshipmen. Tech’s defense isn’t very good, but you already knew that.
So what do I expect here? Well, anything really. I’m just going to pull for the Jackets and hope for the best.
Previous meetings: Georgia Tech has played Air Force 3 times overall, all from 1977-1979. Air Force was pretty bad back then and GT made quick work of them, to the tune of a 3-0 record by which GT outscored them 93-24. The 1978 game in Colorado Springs featured GT running back Eddie Lee Ivory setting what was then the NCAA single-game rushing record.
Last bowl game: Georgia Tech is making its 14th consecutive bowl appearance, a streak which dates back to the 1997 Carquest Bowl. Only 4 other schools have as long or longer streaks (Georgia, VPI, Florida, and FSU). GT played in last year’s Orange Bowl and lost 24-14 to Iowa. Meanwhile, AF is in its 4th consecutive bowl game, the previous three of which were the Armed Forces Bowl. Last year they pounded Houston 47-20.

Tuesday, December 28
6:30: West Virginia vs. North Carolina State (Champs Sports Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): Despite his general lack of coaching prowess, I’m not sure anyone really deserves the treatment Bill Stewart has gotten lately from the WVU athletic department. That’s part of the reason why I’ve picked them to win. The other is that West Virginia has quietly had an awesome defensive year. They rank 3rd in the country in total defense and have allowed an average of less than 13 points per game. I think NCSU will manage to score more than that, but one side has a great defense and is playing for their embattled coach, while the other had a shot at getting to the ACC title game but blew it in an inexplicable loss to Maryland.
Previous meetings: These schools have met a total of 9 times in what appear to be one off home-and-homes and a couple of Peach Bowls. The first meeting was in 1914, which NC State won 26-13. They would meet again in 1917 and then  in three straight years from 1953-1955. Then there were the 1972 and 1975 Peach Bowls, after which they’d get together for a home-and-home in 1978 and 1979, the last of which WVU won 38-14. They haven’t met since. Overall, WVU holds a slim 5-4 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: West Virginia has a decent little streak going, starting with the 2002 Continental Tire Bowl, which they lost to UVA 48-22, and lost to FSU last year in the Gator Bowl, 33-21. NCSU last went bowling in 2008, when they lost 29-23 to Rutgers in the papajohns.com Bowl.

10:00: Missouri vs. Iowa (Insight Bowl @ Temple, AZ; ESPN): Iowa’s had a boatload of issues so far this offseason, while Mizzou hasn’t. Missouri also still boasts a pretty good offense and had decent, if not great year, while Iowa’s was mostly disappointing. Going with the Tigers here.
Previous meetings: These two met 7 times from 1902 to 1910 and haven’t played each other since. In what was surely an exciting game, Mizzou won the 1910 game 5-0 and holds a 4-3 lead in the series.
Last bowl game: This will be Mizzou’s 4th straight bowl game. They lost 35-13 to Navy in last year’s Texas Bowl. This would be Iowa 10th straight game, but they didn’t go to one in 2007. They beat Georgia Tech 24-14 in last year’s Orange Bowl.

Wednesday, December 29
2:30: Maryland vs. East Carolina (Military Bowl @ Washington, DC; ESPN): I’ve got Maryland here, mostly due to the non-strength that is ECU’s defense. With the 108th ranked defense nationally, even the Terps should be able to put up some points here.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Maryland was last seen in the 2008 Humanitarian Bowl, where they beat Nevada 42-35. This is ECU’s 5th straight bowl game, and last year they lost 20-17 to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl.

6:00: Baylor vs. Illinois (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): I normally say about these sorts of games “which Illinois team will show up here?” but I think that’s an ultimately futile effort. That said, Illinois’s wins include both directional Illinoises, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State. Baylor faded down the stretch, but at least they didn’t lose to Minnesota. Taking the Bears here.
Previous meetings: These teams have met exactly once, in a 34-19 Baylor win at Illinois in 1976.
Last bowl game: Baylor, as you might’ve heard, has not been very good for most of the of the past two decades. Their last bowl appearance was actually with the SWC, when they lost 10-3 to Washington State in 1994 Alamo Bowl. This is Illinois’s first bowl since the Zooker’s magical run to the 2007 Rose Bowl, where they (unsurprisingly) got pounded by USC 49-17.

9:15: Arizona vs. Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): Arizona actually has a decent offense and defense, but OSU has a serviceable defense and the nation’s leading offense. Most notably, the the Wildcat defense got torched by fellow offensive juggernauts Stanford and Oregon, so there’s not reason Oklahoma State shouldn’t be able to do the same.
Previous meetings: These two have met 6 times and are 3-3 all-time. All 6 meetings were between 1931 and 1942, the last of which Arizona won 20-6.
Last bowl game: This is Arizona’s third straight bowl game. They got blown out 33-0 in last year’s Holiday Bowl. This is OSU’s 5th straight game (their only miss of the past decade was in 2005). They lost 21-7 to Ole Miss in last year’s Cotton Bowl.

It’s that time of the year again, folks! I had an abysmal year last year (50% overall) so I’m hoping to improve on that this year. For now, we’ll start with this year’s pre-Christmas bowls.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 18
2:00: Texas-El Paso vs. Brigham Young (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): UTEP had a fairly typical year for UTEP, beating up on patsies and getting an inexplicable win over a C-USA favorite (in this case, their win over SMU). BYU’s year appeared to be going off the rails until they rediscovered their offense. Perhaps not coincidentally, this is also when they started playing the bottom dwellers of the Mountain West, though they did put up a fight in their 1-point loss to bitter rivals Utah. That said, I’m buying stock in the BYU offensive renaissance and hoping to see it pay off against UTEP.
Previous meetings: These former WAC foes met every year from 1966 to 1998 (skipping 1995), and BYU holds a commanding 28-7-1 lead, including a 31-14 win in their last meeting in 1998.
Last bowl game: This is BYU’s 6th straight bowl game, a streak starting in 2005 with a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. Every trip thereafter also was to the Las Vegas Bowl, so this marks the first time since 2001 they’ve gone somewhere else. Last year, they trounced Oregon State 44-20. Meanwhile, this is UTEP’s first trip to a bowl since the 2005 GMAC Bowl, which they lost to Toledo 44-13.

5:30: Fresno State vs. Northern Illinois (Humanitarian Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): Northern Illinois was having the season this year. The kind of year where everything was coming together, including an undefeated run through the MAC and a rushing offense that just ran every which way against everyone. Well, except Miami (of Ohio) in the MAC title game, which they lost. Then they lost their coach to a team they beat this year. I think Fresno is probably more talented, but let’s face it, no matter what they say this is a major let down.
Previous meetings: Somewhat surprisingly, these schools have met 4 times, though not since 1991. The series is split at 2-2.
Last bowl game: Fresno sports a 3 game bowl streak coming into this one, starting with a (sigh) 40-28 win over Georgia Tech in the 2007 Humanitarian, and then two trips to the New Mexico Bowl, where they lost last year to Wyoming 35-28. NIU has a two year bowl streak, including last year’s 27-3 loss in the last ever International Bowl.

9:00: Ohio vs. Troy (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Troy didn’t win the Sun Belt this year, but they still get to go New Orleans. There’s worse things in the world. Ohio heads down from the MAC thanks to some last minute bowl swapping shenanigans. Troy had a relatively disappointing year (mostly because they’re favorites for the Sun Belt crown every year these days). Ohio lost their shot at the MAC East due to a shocking upset of them by Kent State, allowing Miami to sneak in and then upset NIU. Crazy. Anyway, Troy doesn’t play much defense seemingly but they do score a whole ton of points and I don’t think the Bobcats will be able to keep up. Both teams may score more than 30 though.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: Ohio lost last year’s Little Ceasar’s Bowl 21-17 to ex-MAC team Marshall and Troy lost last year’s GMAC bowl 44-41, but extends their bowl streak to three. In fact, including this year is Troy’s 5th bowl game. Not bad for a program that started playing major college football in 2001.

Tuesday, December 21
8:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisville (St. Petersburg Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL): Even if that league is the Big East, giving up less than 20 points per game is a pretty good defense. And that’s exactly what Louisville’s done. Southern Miss can score, but they’ve struggled a tad against better opponents. I expect a 17-14 like contest here.
Previous meetings: These two played every year from 1978 to 2002 first as independents, and then as members of the old pre-Big East poached Conference USA. Southern Miss leads the all time series 15-8-1. They last met, though, in 2009 where Louisville won 25-23.
Last bowl game :Louisville was last seen beating Wake Forest 24-13 in the 2006 Orange Bowl, where after they disappeared into the wilderness. Southern Miss is would be there in the consecutive bowl game lists, having been every year since 1997 except for 2001 (though since they were 6-5, they would’ve gone these days, but that’s another discussion). Anyway, the last two years they were in the New Orleans Bowl, where they lost to Dwight Dasher and MTSU last year 42-32.

Wednesday, December 22
8:00: Boise State vs. Utah (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV): Boise recovered from their disastrous loss to Nevada by getting back to what they did several other times this year: pound their WAC opposition into the dust. Utah, meanwhile, has only two losses but I feel they’re very telling: a blowout losses to TCU and Notre Dame. Not encouraging. I like Boise in a rout here (and with the current line I even have Boise covering the 18).
Previous meetings: Their last meeting was in a 2006 game at Utah, which Boise won 36-3. The two also met in 1998 and 1999, with Boise winning both those encounters as well.
Last bowl game: Utah beat Cal in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, and has been to a bowl every year since 2003. Boise beat TCU in last year’s Fiesta Bowl and sports its own streak dating back to 2002. (It’d be two games longer if they had to gone to a bowl in 2001, which they didn’t despite being 8-4.)

Thursday, December 23
8:00: Navy vs. San Diego State (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): San Diego State is pretty decent this year, which is why you keep hearing Brady Hoke come up in coaching rumors. I ordinarily like Navy teams in bowl games, but I don’t think SDSU will be taking anything for granted against the home crowd, and should have a size advantage on the lines and the passing game that can expose Navy’s secondary. I don’t think SDSU will win going away, but I think they will win.
Previous meetings: They’ve met twice, in 1994 and 1997. SDSU won both games, the latter 45-31 and the former 56-14. Remember, Navy wasn’t very good back then.
Last bowl game: Navy defeated Missouri 35-13 in last year’s Texas Bowl, and has gone to a bowl every year since 2003. Meanwhile, this is SDSU’s first appearance since the 1998 Las Vegas Bowl, which they lost to UNC 20-13.

Friday, December 24
8:00: Hawaii vs. Tusla (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Both these teams can score. Hawaii, of course, likes to throw the ball and the Tulsa defense has been awfully obliging this year, yielding 305.7 yards/game (good for 119th nationally). Tulsa may keep it close early put Hawaii should be able to pull away.
Previous meetings: Hawaii is 5-2 all-time against Tulsa, with all but their first appearance in 1992 coming from Tulsa’s stint in the WAC. Their last meeting was in 2004, a 44-16 Hawaii win.
Last bowl game: Hawaii was last seen in a 49-21 loss to Notre Dame in the 2008 Hawaii Bowl. Their sub-.500 record in 2009 snapped a modest 3-game streak. Tulsa also lost their 4-game streak last year, with their last bowl appearance in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, in which they handily beat Ball State 45-13.

The bowl predictions page should be updated with all predictions soon!

Hopefully uploading this early enough that it’ll get posted to Facebook before tomorrow evening. (Oh snap!) Anyway, here’s my final take on trying to figure out who is going where. (Note that the main page will be updated as announcements are made throughout the day.)

The BCS

Nothing changes here except the conference winners are now known. I’m actually pretty excited about Wisconsin-TCU and VPI-Stanford, not to mention the title game. I’m trying to figure out how UConn isn’t going to get obliterated by Oklahoma, but them’s the breaks for the Fiesta, but don’t feel to sorry for them as they’ll get first crack at this thing next year. (And, honestly, you shouldn’t really feel sorry for big bowl games anyway. Being a BCS bowl game commissioner is probably the cushiest job on the planet.)

For the below I’m going to start with conferences where things are well-known and go from there. At this point, the ACC and SEC probably have the most uncertainty, so I’ll do them last.

Big East

With UConn’s 19-16 win over South Florida, all Big East teams should get into Big East affiliated bowls, provided the Champs Sports likes its chances with West Virginia over Notre Dame. Since the Champs only gets to take Notre Dame once every four years under their new deal with the Big East, they may elect to take a well-traveling Mountaineer posse and try their luck with ND next year. From there, it’s pretty much just letting things fall where they may. Pitt will probably head to the Car Care Bowl, and Syracuse has already accepted an invite to the Pinstripe Bowl. The only other question is how the Compass and St. Petersburg Bowls shake out. Right now I have the St. Pete wanting to get USF (again), and so sticking the Compass with Louisville. It could easily work out the other way, though.

Big 12

Oklahoma won the whole thing, and the Cotton has already grabbed Texas A&M. So we first go to the Alamo, which is basically picking between Oklahoma State and Nebraska. Since the Alamo just started a new deal with the Pac-10 and Big 12, I have to think they’ll grab their last chance to take the Cornhuskers, which relegates Oklahoma State to the Insight. That said, those two could easily switch places. Either way, though, I think Missouri lands in the Holiday Bowl. With Kansas State already in with the Pinstripe Bowl, this leaves two slots (the Texas Bowl and TicketCity Bowl) for two teams, Baylor and Texas Tech. I think they’ll go in that order.

Pac-10

The Pac-10 managed to avoid its nightmare scenario Saturday, with Oregon beating Oregon State and Washington managing to hang on for dear life in the Apple Cup. Oregon and Stanford will be in the BCS barring any shenanigans that see Stanford getting passed in the polls, so that leaves Arizona and Washington for two bowl spots, the Alamo and Holiday. I don’t really know why, but I’m putting Arizona in the Alamo and Washington in the Holiday. I don’t think Arizona fans will be particularly excited with their overtime loss to Arizona State, while after the thrill of victory Washington fans may realize beating Wazzou by a touchdown isn’t really that much of an accomplishment. However, among bowl types I think Arizona probably has the better reputation and the Alamo gets first pick.

Mid-Majors and Independents

Several mid-major conference games are basically set. The New Mexico Bowl will pit UTEP and BYU, Utah will (probably) face Boise State in Las Vegas, Navy will face San Diego State in the Poinsettia, Hawaii will face Tulsa, and Army will play Southern Methodist at the Armed Forces Bowl in SMU’s home stadium. The other WAC bids are basically set as well, with Nevada going to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, leaving Fresno to head up to Boise.

The Mountain West already announced its bids earlier this week. The only one I didn’t mention above is Air Force in the Independence.

After its win in the C-USA title game, Central Florida is headed to the Liberty Bowl. From there, the other C-USA bids fell into place, with Tulsa heading to Hawaii, ECU heading up to the Military Bowl, and Southern Mississippi headed to the St. Petersburg. Astute readers will note that the C-USA slot in the New Orleans Bowl is not filled- this is due to SMU going to the Armed Forces Bowl, filling a slot left open by the lack of a Mountain West team.

With MTSU beating FIU yesterday, the Sun Belt has three bowl eligible teams: those two and Troy. Thanks to the Big Ten being a team short, this gives the Sun Belt three slots to fill: New Orelans, godaddy.com, and Little Ceasars. I’m currently putting Troy in the godaddy.com as it’s in nearby Mobile, AL. From there, I’m sending MTSU to the Little Ceasars since they went to New Orleans last year, leaving FIU to go to the Big Easy.

What about Notre Dame? Well, if the Champs takes West Virginia, most sources seem to think the Sun Bowl will take the Irish. I agree with this train of thought, especially if it sets up the Notre Dame-Miami matchup that the Sun Bowl folks really coveted (until Miami lost last weekend and fired their coach, anyway).

This leads us to the MAC. The MAC has six qualified teams: conference champ Miami, runner-up Northern Illinois, and then Ohio, Temple, Toledo, and Western Michigan. The MAC has three guaranteed bids (Little Ceasars, godaddy.com, and Humanitarian) and due to shortages in other conferences there’s one overall at-large bid (New Orleans) after I take care of the major conference teams plus any backup tie-ins. Right now, I’m putting Toledo in the Little Ceasars due to a rumored need to sell tickets and Toledo is the closest team to Detroit. I’m then putting the champ in Mobile, followed by NIU to the Humanitarian. This leaves three teams for the one New Orleans slot, and of those three I’m picking Ohio. This means the only two eligible teams not in bowls this year, according to me, will be Temple and Western Michigan.

Okay, those were the easy ones. Let’s talk about the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC, in that order.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is extremely likely to get two teams into the BCS. Of the three co-champions, Wisconsin will go to the Rose barring any poll shenanigans tomorrow. The Sugar will get the first two picks from the at-large pool regardless of how Auburn and Oregon finish as the Rose is expected to take TCU. This puts Ohio State into the Sugar for me, leaving Michigan State to lament its fate in the Capital One Bowl.

Following the top three, we have the remaining five eligible teams. Three of them were 4-4 in conference (Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State) while the other two were 3-5 (Michigan and Northwestern). A lot of signs have flipped recently, pointing Penn State towards the Outback bowl, where I originally had Iowa slotted. This gets us to the Big Ten #4/5 slot, occupied by the Insight and Gator Bowls. The Gator wanted to make a splash with Florida-Penn State in its first year of its Big Ten-SEC matchup, but it looks like the Outback will steal that. Fair or not, I think they’ll reach for the Michigan “name”, sending Iowa to the desert. The Texas Bowl is then left to contemplate Illinois and Northwestern, with the TicketCity picking after. Despite losing at Fresno Friday night, I’m still putting Illinois in Houston, leaving Northwestern for the TicketCity.

SEC

It starts easy. Auburn in the title game, Arkansas to the Sugar, Alabama in the Capital One, and LSU in the Cotton. Things start to get screwy in the Outback. I originally had South Carolina slotted there, but the Internet has exploded with rumors that the Outback execs want to matchup Florida with Penn State. I’ve bowed to this pressure, leaving the Chick-fil-a with a tough choice. I’m not aware of any SEC rules that say the championship game loser must go to a certain level of bowl, but the conventional wisdom says South Carolina will go there. Personally, I don’t like it because it’s in the same building where they just got demolished by Auburn, and I’ve had Mississippi State pegged to this game for awhile because they had a good year and a bright future with a pretty energized fanbase (that also hasn’t been since 1999). I’m overriding my gut on this one and putting South Carolina here, though.

The Chick-fil-a’s pick also affects the Gator and Music City Bowls. If the Chick-fil-a takes South Carolina, then the Gator will take Tennessee and the Music City will take Mississippi State. If the Chick-fil-a takes Mississippi State, then the Gator would probably take South Carolina, putting the Vols in the Music City. Regardless of any of the above, I have Georgia in the Liberty and Kentucky in the BBVA Compass.

ACC

My teams’s conference is also the most complicated. I can’t find anything concrete on which way any of the ACC bowls are leaning other than the Chick-fil-a, which said it’d take the title game loser, so that’s where Florida State is going. As I lamented Friday, I have no idea what is happening with anyone else. At this point I’m just sticking to my guns. I’m putting NC State in the Champs Sports and thinking the Sun will stick with its original idea, Miami, since they will probably get Notre Dame. The Car Care is finally tired of UNC it seems, so I’m slotting Clemson into there. This leads us to the Music City. This is sort of the most desired bowl for Georgia Tech fans at the current moment, so most of the message board rumors I’ve seen focus on this. I still don’t really think it’s going to happen, so I’m putting North Carolina there, putting us in the Independence. The Military will be overjoyed that Maryland is still available through all that (and really, the Terps are the wild card here, but they had abysmal attendance (around 30,000 a game) at home this year so that’s not helping them), once again exiling Boston College out to San Francisco. Note that if the Champs or Sun gets frisky and takes the Terps or Canes before I project that really jumbles things up.

That’s all I have for now. Note at the top I linked to the final set of predictions, any changes and awarding of asterisks will happen on the main page that will be updated throughout the day as I hear more confirmations. And, of course, the ESPN bowl coverage kicks off at 8:15 Eastern tomorrow night, starting with the BCS bowls for 45 minutes and then the overall bowl selection show. Many major conferences will embargo their bowl announcements until then, so we may not hear anything other than the MAC and Sun Belt announcements until then.