This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma @ Iowa State (ABC): It’s not unprecedented for Iowa State to pull off an upset of this magnitude, but that doesn’t make it any less unlikely.
  • Temple @ Louisville (ABC): Can Louisville remain the Big East’s only somewhat competent team? Probably.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Mississippi State (ESPN): Mississippi State’s 15th ranked scoring defense should continue to suffer against the second team on its schedule capable of scoring points.
  • Missouri @ Florida (ESPN2): The Gators would probably have to turn the ball over, like, twelve times to lose to this bunch of Tigers.
  • Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (ESPNU): Vandy can, and should, put itself in a very good position to make it a bowl game for a second consecutive season. How many times have the Commodores done that, though? None.
  • Houston @ East Carolina (FSN): Neither of these teams can play defense to save their lives, but Houston’s offense is slightly more proficient and should get them the victory in the end.
  • Air Force @ Army (CBSS): I keep forgetting that Air Force actually lost to Navy last month and so this will not decide the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy. Nonetheless, Army is still not any position to win it themselves.
  • Michigan @ Minnesota (BTN): Time for more wacky Big Ten hijinks! Whee! Michigan probably wins.
  • Troy @ Tennessee (SEC/FSN): Tennessee isn’t bad enough to lose to Troy, are they? Probably not.
  • Tulsa @ Arkansas (SEC): A few years ago, the Golden Hurricane liked to sling the ball all over the place, but these days they’re 9th in rushing and only 86th in passing. I realize that Arkansas is just plan not very good but I still find it exceedingly difficult to pick against them.

12:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Maryland (ACC): Maryland is playing a linebacker at QB this week, but our defense has had the unfortunate tendency to make opposing quarterbacks look several times more competent than they actually are. Maryland also sports a pretty good rushing defense, the likes of which have given us fits this season.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina State (ACC): NC State should be able to regroup after a devastating, last-minute loss to UNC last weekend.

2:00: Stanford @ Colorado (FX): If you’re the sort of person who likes disaster based reality TV shows, then this will be the football game for you.

3:00: Texas Christian @ West Virginia (FOX): WVU looks to get back on the right side of the ledger, after going 0-2 in their last two games. The main thing both those games was playings teams that aren’t awful at defense. TCU isn’t either, but if the Mountaineers can get any sort of offensive foothold at all they should prevail.

3:30:

  • Mississippi @ Georgia (CBS): UGA won’t need six turnovers to beat Ole Miss.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN2): Nebraska, probably? It’s the Big Ten, so we’re pretty much just guessing at this point.
  • Texas @ Texas Tech (ABC/ESPN2): When was the last time TTU was favored against Texas? It has to have been awhile. Though in the Big 12, giving a team seven points is basically betting they’re going to get the ball last. Nonetheless, I think the Red Raiders can pull it off.
  • Illinois @ Ohio State (ESPN): There are no certainties in the Big Ten, other than that Ohio State will find the most excruciating ways to win, such that it continues to make the rest of the conference look bad. If you’re not sure what I mean, the usual conversation goes something like this: “Ohio State is clearly the best team in the Big Ten.” “Yeah, but they’re not eligible for the title! And they only beat the Indiana schools by a combined 10 points!” “Well, that just makes everyone else look even worse, doesn’t it?”
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (ESPNU): Speaking of Purdue, they lost by 16 to Minnesota last week. Whoops! They’ll probably lose to Penn State, too.
  • Kansas @ Baylor (FSN): Kansas is Baylor’s first, and perhaps best, hope for a Big 12 victory this season.
  • Florida Atlantic @ Navy (CBSS): Navy should be able to lock-up a trip to San Francisco with ease.
  • Iowa @ Indiana (BTN): Reminder: Iowa has a .500 record in the year so far, including two Big Ten wins, and has the nation’s 107th ranked scoring offense. Big Ten Football! Feel the excitement! They should probably still win, though if their defense has an off day against the Hoosiers there should be no way they can keep up.
  • Boston College @ Wake Forest (ACC): I’m going with Wake since they managed to actually beat Army this year.

7:00:

  • Oregon @ Southern California (FOX): USC picked the wrong time to fall asleep on defense last week. If they do the same again here, this game will over by halftime. That said, I think USC will be able to keep up, at least for a bit, but Oregon should pull away in the second half.
  • Clemson @ Duke (ESPN2): Duke lost 48-7 to FSU last weekend, except similar here.
  • Connecticut @ South Florida (ESPNU): This is a matchup of the two worst teams in the Big East. Remember, Temple is in the Big East again. Yeah.
  • Southern Methodist @ Central Florida (CBSS): This is probably the second most compelling game on if Oregon gets up on USC by like 4 touchdowns before the next set of games start. Except for a slip-up against Tulane, both of these teams have marched through C-USA without meeting much resistance. Nonetheless, UCF should prevail.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (ABC): Kansas State is pretty darn good. Oklahoma State is currently one of the best two-loss teams in the country, but they’re probably about to become the best three loss team.
  • Alabama @ Louisiana State (CBS): It’s a night game in Baton Rouge. That is usually enough for the Tigers, but it probably won’t be against this juggernaut of a football team. Alabama is actually competent offensively, and the first team to 14 points could well win this game. With the right combination of luck, we know LSU can prevail (see: last year’s regular season matchup), but I think Alabama will work diligent to make sure that on this night, luck won’t matter.

10:30:

  • Arizona State @ Oregon State (ESPN2): I got it in my head last weekend that I actually liked Arizona State to win the Pac-12 South, but I keep forgetting that they actually lost to UCLA. Whoops. Anyway, I actually still like them against the Beavers simply because the Sun Devils will be the best team they’ve played so far this year.
  • San Diego State @ Boise State (CBSS): Boise State continues its quest for a darkhorse run at a BCS game, which should make for good enough reason to find the CBS Sports Network in and of itself. If it doesn’t, or you hate the blue turf, then it’s a good enough reason to bring up the GameTracker or some such. I think the Broncos will win, but this is their stiffest test since their opener.

Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 3

It’s that time again. Predictions are up at the usual place. Things have changed a bit since the first two weeks. Heading into the final month of the season, most teams only have four games left and the picture starts to become clearer for many teams in hovering the 5 to 7 win mark. Of course, we also have new complications due to thinks like Oklahoma and USC losing again. So let’s start with the BCS.

BCS
Like many other prognosticators, I still have Alabama and Oregon as my #1 and #2. Oregon’s schedule (plus the Pac-12 title game) should help them out in the computers. Notre Dame should slip in the machine rankings over the final weeks of the season, especially if USC loses again (which they will at least once). Kansas State will be a tougher nut to crack, but Oregon will remain #2 in both human polls if they win out, and again, they have the benefit of playing a 13th game. (Though it is worth noting the Pac-12 title game and Kansas State will both be on Saturday, December 1, so there isn’t a “one of the teams didn’t play the past week” advantage.)

Florida may have actually improved their chances of going to a BCS game by missing out on the SEC title game. I still think they will win out, including a win over my predicted ACC champion Florida State. If Florida only has one loss and does not play in the SEC title game (thus meaning they won’t lose to Alabama), I still like them to go to the Sugar.

The Rose Bowl is a bigger question. Nebraska’s win over Michigan this past weekend makes them the Big Ten frontrunners, so I’ll put them in the Rose. However, with an at-least two-loss Nebraska there, does the Rose gain anything by taking Notre Dame, or will they defer to the Fiesta and pick-up Oklahoma? Nebraska-Oklahoma was once one the biggest rivalries in the sport and the two teams have not played since 2010. Either way, with USC’s loss to Arizona State this weekend, it does not look like there will be a Pac-12 runner up worthy of BCS consideration.

If the Rose does pass on an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame, then they will definitely snapped up by the Fiesta to play a jilted Kansas State. I actually have ND going undefeated now, but if everything breaks as explained above it won’t matter.

New to the predictions this week is Boise State. Boise sits at #19 in the current BCS rankings, three spots away from the promised land provided they don’t lose and finish ahead of the Big Ten champion (which they currently will). Boise is split in the human polls, with the coaches putting them at #14 and Harris at #17. It stands to reason they’ll pick up a couple spots in the Harris poll if they don’t lose, and maybe even pick up a couple more spots in some of the computers (two of which don’t even have them in their top 25’s). Either way, if Boise makes it them they will go to the Orange and Louisville will be in the Sugar.

Possibly even more interesting is what happens if Boise doesn’t make it, however. I’m not entirely sure they will, and I very, very nearly put Clemson in the Sugar. It could happen, especially if they beat a now-depleted South Carolina in their last game of the season. The BCS feels almost like it was counting on always having at least two Big Ten and two SEC teams every year. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and entirely too-many SEC teams at the top of the polls, this creates a logjam of teams near the fringes that could get in.

ACC
FSU is in the driver’s seat of the ACC. Less clear is just who the heck will win the Coastal. I have Miami pulling it off, finally setting up the FSU-Miami ACC title game that the conference bigwigs envisioned all those years ago when they set up the divisions and picked Florida cities for the original title games. Even as title game losers, I like Miami for the Russel Athletic Bowl. Clemson and NC State should follow into the Chick-fil-a and Sun Bowls. I have three Coastal at 6-6, including Virginia Tech, Duke, and probably entirely too optimistically at this point, Georgia Tech. I put those three into the Belk, Independence, and Music City, respectively.

Big 12
I finally have to give up on my dream of Texas playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I project Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to finish ahead of the Longhorns in the conference, which just makes the notion too infeasible at this point. I put TTU in the Cotton, and then the Cowboys into the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Texas is relegated to the Alamo. The Holiday Bowl could be fun again with my projected matchup of West Virginia and Southern Cal. I also have Iowa State and TCU making in at 6-6, but I put Baylor at 4-8.

Big East
Well, Louisville hasn’t lost to a MAC team yet so they’re the Big East frontrunners now. New this week is 6-6 Syracuse sneaking in, but I couldn’t put them into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I have Nebraska going 10-2, but remember, Wisconsin just as easily win the Big Ten title game, which I have them entering at 8-4. Either way, the Badgers may be the only eligible team from the Leaders division that even makes it to 6-6 or better, though Indiana or Purdue could do it, at least in theory. The Legends compensates by getting everyone eligible, even Minnesota, which thanks to a generous schedule can go 2-6 in the Big Ten and still make a bowl.

Pac-12
USC’s loss this past weekend makes it very difficult for me to project them beating Oregon and Notre Dame. I now have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 South. Stanford could finish 9-3 but I don’t think losing to Oregon in November will help their BCS chances. I actually even have Utah sneaking in at 6-6, after upsetting Cal this past weekend.

SEC
I already talked about the very top of the SEC, so let’s focus on the runners up. I don’t have Georgia or South Carolina losing again, except for the former in the SEC title game. Nonetheless, I put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl because South Carolina played there last year. Everything else was pretty much going down the line. I do have Tennessee sneaking at 6-6. Hey, they’ve done it before.

That’s pretty much it for this week. Next week I’ll incorporate news into the projections, which especially helps sort out my guesses for bowls that won’t get their contractually obligated teams (read: the Military and BBVA Compass bowls).

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Tennessee @ South Carolina (ESPN): Well, South Carolina basically went 0-2 in the two most important games of their season. Whoops. Either way, Tennessee should be their ticket back to a healthy winning streak.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ESPN2): Aw what the heck, Northwestern. They actually play offense.
  • Kentucky @ Missouri (ESPNU): I think this will be the time Mizzou gets their first SEC win. Maybe. Probably.
  • Texas @ Kansas (FSN): This game should be a respite for the Longhorns’ shamble-tastic defense.
  • Ball State @ Army (CBSS): Army’s only FBS win so far this year is over Boston College. I foresee it remaining that way.
  • Indiana @ Illinois (BTN): Both these teams are 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-5 on the year. Yet, Indiana seems demonstrably less awful. I’ll take the Hooisers.
  • Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): I actually like Ole Miss in this one.

12:30: North Carolina State @ North Carolina (ACC): I actually like Carolina in this one. UNC, for those of you who aren’t familiar with the lingo.

3:00:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Arizona State (FX): UCLA has only beaten teams that one would think are probably worse than they are. Arizona State does not seem worse than them. I like the Sun Devils.
  • Brigham Young @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): Well, it’s week 2 of the new defense, and this time against a much more credible offensive threat than Boston College. Considering how middling the BYU offense is, that’s really saying something about BC, but anyway. Another hot topic for the Jackets has been “intensity” – from that of players on the sidelines to the guys on the field. The second half of the BC game definitely had the hallmarks of a team that had “taken their foot off the pedal”, so to speak. Yes, it’s easy to point to the kicking woes, but frankly if this offense were firing on all cylinders they would only need a guy that kicks extra points. Either way, on paper this one is pretty close, so it may come down to thinks like “focus” and “intensity”.

3:30:

  • Texas Tech @ Kansas State (FOX): This is your weekly reminder that Bill Synder is a wizard. K-State could easily lose any of their next five games, but a loss in any one would be a massive upset at this point.
  • Florida vs. Georgia (@Jacksonville, FL; CBS): This figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle. Florida’s best offense really is their defense. Last week against South Carolina, all their touchdown drives started deep in South Carolina’s territory off of turnovers. This does not figure to be an every game occurrence for the Gators, but the defense really is that suffocating. If UGA can get to 21 points I actually like their chances of winning, but I don’t really see how that can happen.
  • Southern California @ Arizona (ABC/ESPN2): USC-Oregon is next week. Oregon plays Colorado this week, so they can maybe afford to not worry about that too much, but the Wildcats are just competent enough for the Trojans to worry about. Don’t get me wrong, it should still be a walk-over for them, but they will need to at least pay attention.
  • Michigan State @ Wisconsin (ABC/ESPN2): I guess Wisconsin is sort-of kind-of good? At least by the standards of this year’s Big Ten?
  • Duke @ Florida State (ESPNU): Duke may be able to keep up for a little while due to their passing offense, but as I’ve said elsewhere, their defense is still pretty much made up of the kind of guys that Duke can recruit. FSU should cruise to a win.
  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma State (FSN): OSU has basically no defense (like, you know, almost everyone else in the Big 12) but the usual “hope your opponent can’t keep up” strategy should be sufficient against TCU.
  • Boise State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Boise State’s looking a little healthier against the bottom dwellers of the Mountain West. SDSU next week should provide a challenge, but really the biggest game for them will be the game at Nevada the last week of the season. Let’s hope they’re not looking ahead like I am.
  • Purdue @ Minnesota (BTN): Purdue and Minnesota are basically fighting to get one last bowl bid for the Big Ten. Of course, there’s still enough games left neither of them could make it. Since the start of Big Ten play, Minnesota has lost three straight, and scored 13 points in all three. Purdue has scored, er, 13, 14, and 22. I have Minnesota winning, but that’s just a wild guess.

5:30: Ohio State @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): This game is thoroughly irrelevant. Sure, Ohio State can try for the AP poll win, but they won’t get it due to their lackluster results the past couple weeks and because they’re not better than any of the other candidates, and more importantly, won’t get a chance to play them. Penn State just isn’t really very good. At least when they’re playing teams that aren’t each other they affect the bigger picture in some way but other than it’s hard to come up with a reason to care about this contest if you’re not a fan of either team. Also, the Buckeyes should win, and I still think if that Ohio State pulls off the undefeated season Terry Bowden should invent a traveling trophy for “undefeated teams in probation” and send it to Urban Meyer.

7:00:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechicanical @ Auburn (ESPNU): Auburn is just awful. TAMU rolls.
  • Baylor @ Iowa State (FSN): Baylor has literally the worse scoring defense in the country. Can Iowa State exploit it? Well, yes, but likely not often enough.
  • Massachusetts @ Vanderbilt (SEC/FSN): They gotta have else on TV, I guess. Vandy.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Oklahoma (ABC): Well, this is the game of the week. I like Oklahoma here but if Notre Dame wins somehow (defense is good, but who’s the quarterback?) I like their chances for the rest of the season.
  • Michigan @ Nebraska (ESPN2): Misdirected passes ahoy! I’ll go with the Huskers.
  • Central Florida @ Marshall (CBSS): UCF is pretty much going all-in on this year, so it would behoove them to not suffer a letdown against the Thundering Hood.

8:30: Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): Well, getting to 7-0 was fun I’m sure, but this isn’t exactly an unstoppable force against an immovable object here. The Tide should roll.

Bowl Predictions 2012: Week 2

They’re available at the usual place.

No commentary this week, other than that I seemed to have less of a need for the emergency pool of teams. Will this hold up next week? We’ll find out soon enough.

In the meantime, why yes, I will take my BCS jokes with a side of Blade Runner.

To all of you getting bent about the BCS, I say to thee: I’ve seen things you wouldn’t believe.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

I’ve seen Iowa State beat Oklahoma State on a Friday night. I watched Pitt’s helmets glitter in the lights as they beat West Virginia.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

All of these moments will be lost in time, like tears in the rain. In the BCS, it is always time to die.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

References: 1) 2011 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
2) 2007 Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Purdue @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State is pretty clearly the best team in the Big Ten at this point, giving up 49 to Indiana notwithstanding.
  • Virginia Tech @ Clemson (ABC/ESPN2): It’s funny to reflect back on the first game of the season, with all the implications we thought they had. As it turns out, both us and VPI were worse than everyone thought. I guess what I’m trying to say here is  expect Clemson to win.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (FX): Iowa State: not awful, but probably still not going to be Oklahoma State.
  • Louisiana State @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN): Boy howdy, this is going to be a fun one I think. I think TAMU will prevail simply by playing offense, though.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (ESPNU): It’s the Big Ten, so who knows? But I’m going with Wisky.
  • Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SEC): I’ve said for two weeks Auburn is going to lose this game. No going back now, no matter how weird it feels to pick Vandy in anything.

12:30: Wake Forest @ Virginia (ACC): Unless you root for one of these teams, I can’t come with a reason to watch this. Picking UVA though.

3:00:

  • Stanford @ California (FOX): It’s The Big Game. This is also your reminder that Jeff Tedford has the best job in America, even if he loses this game by 30. They probably won’t, but I can’t see them winning.
  • Boston College @ Georgia Tech (ACC/FSN): When your season includes a loss to Middle Tennessee State, you can’t really take anything for granted. Word on the street is that the athletes were considerably less enthused about Al Groh getting fired than the fanbase or media. Two out of three isn’t bad, though. The way I look at it is this: someone has to get fired after you have three straight games where your opponents (including the aforementioned MTSU) converted two-thirds of their third downs. Watching the Clemson game two weeks ago I almost felt like that the Clemson offense wanted to get to third down, with the Clemson coaches and players saying to themselves “we’ve got you now!” Since this is college, you have limited resources and you can’t really fire the players, so you almost have to start at the top. I get the feeling (well, I doubt this is really at all disputed) that Paul Johnson would prefer that he never even have to think about the defense, and that is what he hired Al Groh to do. This season he has had to think about he defense a lot, which maybe contributed to some of the inconsistent fourth down decisions we’ve seen this year. Even with the bye week to adjust to new realities, I’m not expecting any miracles. We’ll see what happens.

3:30:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (CBS): This is the game of the day. I liked Florida’s chances to stop South Carolina in the same, and I like them even more now that Marcus Lattimore may not play, or will be limited if he does. A win here sets up the Gators for a shot at the title game against Alabama in Atlanta, and I think they’ll come through. But make no mistake: this will not be a LSU-style domination, because South Carolina has a pulse on offense. But the result will not be in doubt.
  • Brigham Young @ Notre Dame (NBC): Independent teams have to stick together, you know? It’s hard to envision how BYU has a chance against this Irish defense.
  • Nebraska @ Northwestern (ABC/ESPN2): I expect lots of running and lots of points, but also probably a Cornhusker victory in the end.
  • Texas Tech @ Texas Christian (ABC/ESPN2): I guess the Texas Tech defense is for real? That does not bode well for TCU’s pedestrian (by Big 12 standards anyway) offense.
  • South Florida @ Louisville (ABC): One of these teams lost by 9 last week to Temple. Hint: it wasn’t Louisville.
  • North Carolina State @ Maryland (ESPNU): Maryland is 4-2, which makes precisely zero sense until you look at their schedule. NCSU isn’t some sort of offensive juggernaut or anything but unless they make a ton of mistakes it’s hard to see how UMD will score enough to win.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Boise State (NBCS): These teams almost have opposite records, but alas, Boise will need this game to record their sixth win. They’ll probably get it.
  • Rice @ Tulsa (FSN): The country’s 105th ranked scoring defense against the 13th ranked scoring offense. This does not bode well for one of these two teams; which is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • Indiana @ Navy (CBSS): I think this edition of Indiana may be unawful enough to beat Navy. Maybe.
  • Michigan State @ Michigan (BTN): It feels sort of weird that a game like this isn’t on network television and Nebraska-Northwestern is. I have a hunch that maybe the Big Ten Network gets one of these a year or something. Anyway, both have well-above-average defense, but only one posses any sort of notable offense, so I’ll go with Michigan.

7:00:

  • Kansas State @ West Virginia (FOX): You may not realize this, but adjusted for the pace of their offenses, Kansas State and WVU score about the same number of points. Can K-State succeed in Morgantown the same way they did in Norman? Personally, I’m not sure, and leaning toward “no”.
  • Alabama @ Tennessee (ESPN): I have no doubts about this game, however. As they say in the other football, it’s a walk-over for Alabama.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): For Georgia Tech fans looking for any solace in the MTSU loss, well, the week after beating us they lost by two touchdowns against UL-Monroe. I can’t say I’m feeling good about their chances in Starkville.
  • North Carolina @ Duke (ESPNU): UNC is just too competent offensively and defensively for Duke to overcome, I think.
  • Kansas @ Oklahoma (FSN): The problem with scoring 63 against Texas is that everyone is then going to come out and say you’ll be disappointing if you don’t do the same against an awful Kansas team. I’d say that’s a little bit true, but I mean, that’s a lot of points. And besides, I’m sure the Sooners will want to get the starters rested for next week’s Game of the Century of the Week next week against Notre Dame.
  • Marshall @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): All indications, er, indicate that USM’s disaster of a season will continue.
  • Georgia @ Kentucky (SEC/FSN): It’s almost, okay, well, not really, a shame that Kentucky and Auburn don’t play each other this year. Georgia rolls.

8:00:

  • Baylor @ Texas (ABC): It’ll be another shootout for the Longhorns most likely, but despite everything I actually like them here.
  • Florida State @ Miami (ABC): Another team looking to get right after a bad loss is FSU, and they should against one of their biggest rivals.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Iowa (BTN): It’d be shocked if either team breaks 21 points in this game. If Iowa finishes the game with a running back, they should win.

10:30:

  • Utah @ Oregon State (ESPN2): The Beavers’ surprisingly good season should continue against the Utes, but they can’t get caught thinking about their bigger-name conference foes that await.
  • San Diego State @ Nevada (CBSS): Both these late games have a ton of potential to be fun to watch. This game features two teams with great running offenses and subpar defenses. I give a slight edge to Nevada, though.