This Weekend in College Football: Week 3

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • California @ Ohio State (ABC): While Cal rebounded from their Week 1 debacle against Nevada, it’s still hard to see how they can really manage to do anything in Ohio Stadium.
  • Texas Christian @ Kansas (FX): While perusing the scoreboards last weekend, I saw Kansas had a narrow lead but a lead nonetheless against Rice in the fourth quarter and stopped thinking about it. Then I saw a bunch of “decided schematic advantage” jokes on Twitter and realized what must’ve happened. Yeah, so I can’t say I like their odds against TCU.
  • Wake Forest @ Florida State (ESPN): Ready to have your mind blown? Wake Forest is 4-2 against Florida State in their last six meetings. Yes, after winning every meeting between joining the ACC in 1992 and 2005, FSU has now lost four of their last six against the Demon Deacons. That said, it’s still hard to be a sane person and pick against the Seminoles. While one might generously call their opposition so far “undermatched”, FSU has still destroyed them, while Wake only beat Liberty by 3 and escaped against a depleted Tarheel roster.
  • Arkansas State @ Nebraska (ESPN2): The main takeaway for me from Nebraska’s loss to UCLA last week was that the Bruins were probably slightly better than we all thought more than it really said anything about the Cornhuskers. More obsessive college football fans had high hopes for Gus Malzahn’s first year at Arkansas State, but so far the promise of a wide-open spread attack hasn’t materialized, being limited to a come-from-behind 5-point win over a moribund Memphis team. I guess what I’m trying to say, Nebraska’s going to win.
  • Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh (ESPNU):

    “The problem here,” says my O-lineman little brother, “is that Pitt is not any good at football.”
    — Holly (@Nastinchka) September 7, 2012

    They really aren’t. VPI should roll.

  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Oklahoma State (FSN): Cowboys. Next!
  • Northern Illinois @ Army (CBSS): I’m trying to figure out a diplomatic way to say that I think Army’s going to get creamed but I can’t.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (BTN): This has been a banner year for the Football Championship Subdivision (they might change it so that’s why I’ve started saying FCS after holding out for years). I note this because Illinois State beat EMU last week. Meanwhile, Purdue managed to beat Eastern Kentucky, so I’ll give them the edge.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (SEC): Okay so UL-Monroe beats a team coached by John L. Smith and everyone gets all excited. But remember, as bad as Auburn looks this year (and they sure don’t look very good) they are still not, in fact, coached by John L. “Slappy” Smith. I like the Tigers here.

12:30: Connecticut @ Maryland (ACC): UConn lost to NC State 10-7 last week. Maryland is just awful (don’t let the 2-0 record fool you). I would generally advise that you not watch this game. If you do, don’t be surprised if UConn wins.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Arkansas (CBS): The U.S. Open is over so CBS is back with a matchup that probably looked a lot more interesting two weeks ago than it does now. I’m picking the team that has the former Michigan State coach that Sparty fans probably actually miss.
  • Navy @ Pennsylvania State (ABC/ESPN2): Man, Penn State looks really bad eh? Then again, it’s not like Navy is going out there with a roster stocked with blue chip players either. And they did get demolished by Notre Dame to start the year, but they took last week off so it’s hard to tell anything more. I like the Midshipmen here a little bit.
  • North Carolina @ Louisville (ABC/ESPN2): This weekend is awful. I’m not sure I’ve gotten to a single truly compelling game yet. Looking down the list I think we might have two or three and that’s it. But yeah, UNC looked bad against Wake Forest last weekend, while Louisville has generally taken care of business so far this year. I’ll take the Cardinals.
  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ESPNU): I was only able to listen to the first half of this game last weekend, but Tech rebounded well from the VPI loss. Virginia did win last week against Penn State, but they looked awful doing it and as you may’ve heard by now, PSU did miss a few (or five) field goals. The hope for the Jackets is that the defense has finally turned a corner in its third year under former UVA head coach Al Groh. Three years out should also mean that most of the UVA starting offense shouldn’t remember their former coach at this point. To be honest, the other effect of having the VPI game in week 1 is that the rest of the season doesn’t seem to have anything to particularly look forward to until the very end. The goal isn’t to get better over the course of the season. Even more so than usual in college football, the goal is to win every game because the only chance for us is that VPI slips up twice along the way. Again, let this be a lesson to those who want to move the UGA game to week 1.
  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical @ Southern Methodist (FSN): SMU lost 59-24 to Baylor two weeks ago, so yeah I’m going with TAMU here.
  • East Carolina @ Southern Mississippi (CBSS): Not much to go on here, as both teams have losses against obviously better competition. Pre-season USM was supposed to be a good mid-major team, so I’m going with them on that pretty much.
  • Massachusetts @ Michigan (BTN): In their first season playing real, big-boy football, UMass has been out-scored 82-6. By UConn and Indiana. Expect this trend to continue.

4:00:

  • Portland State @ Washington (FX): Listed only because it’s on a major national cable network.
  • Miami @ Boise State (NBCS): No, it’s not that Miami, it’s the other one (i.e., the one in Ohio). The Broncos should roll.

6:00: Florida @ Tennessee (ESPN): I guess this is one of the more interesting games of the day, but I can’t muster a lot of enthusiasm for it. I have no read whatsoever on either of these, other than that they’re probably both slightly less bad than I’d been led to believe. I guess I’ll take the Gators though.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Missouri (ESPN2): Mizzou and TAMU sure didn’t acquit themselves well in their first week of SEC play, did they? I had hoped that maybe some exposure to some wide open offenses might throw Georgia and Florida for a loop, but alas, it did not turn out to be, especially for the Tigers. So far all we know about the Sun Devils is that they demolished Illinois. (I swear this’ll be better next week, because on my schedule for today is pretty much “watch college football”, which I didn’t get to all that much of the past two weeks.) So I guess I’ll take “beating a really bad Illinois team” over “rolling over for what is probably a pretty good Georgia team”.
  • Western Kentucky @ Kentucky (ESPNU): This week we will discover precisely how awful Kentucky is. My guess is “awful” but not awful enough to lose to WKU.
  • North Texas @ Kansas State (FSN): I’m still trying to process that Kansas State beat Miami (yes, that Miami) 52-13. I like their chances against the Mean Green.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ South Carolina (SEC/FSN): This one could get ugly.

7:30: Southern California @ Stanford (FOX): This is probably my favorite game of the day. No I haven’t been infected with some sort of West Coast brainworm or something. Even though we don’t really know anything about Stanford yet and we know that they lost pretty much all their best players from the last two years, this is still USC’s first significant test. I like the Trojans here, but I still think this will be one of the better games of the day that is very sorely lacking in interesting matchups.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Michigan State (ABC): Folks are starting to wake up the echoes, and that’s all fine and dandy, but except for last year’s game this series has been nothing if not interesting these past few years. I like Sparty here but still, this is probably the other interesting game of the day and could be close after USC-Stanford is decided.
  • Colorado @ Fresno State (CBSS): This is your reminder that Colorado lost to Colorado State in week 1, and then both those teams lost to FCS teams in week 2. Yeesh. Fresno at least managed to beat Weber State, so I’ll go with them.
  • Utah State @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin has had… issues so far this year. Dramatic overtime victories aside, I suspect there’s a pretty good chance the badgers get their groove back here.

9:15: Texas @ Mississippi (ESPN): I refuse to accept that Ole Miss may not be awful this year until proven otherwise, so I’m going with Texas here.

10:00: Brigham Young @ Utah (ESPN2): Depressingly, this is the last time this bitter rivalry will be played for a while. I expect this one to be close and intense, but I think in the end the Stormin’ Mormons will be 2-0 against the Pac-12 this year.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Pennsylvania State @ Virginia (ABC): Last week I said Penn State wouldn’t be that bad. I was wrong. I’ll take UVA here.
  • Miami @ Kansas State (FX): Yes, it is in fact, the Miami, not a Miami. That said, this Miami did allow Boston College to score 32 points last week. Whoops! I’ll take K-State here.
  • Auburn @ Mississippi State (ESPN): 5 years ago, these two teams “worked” together to score 5 points in a game. Hopefully that number will be eclipsed this year. I actually like Miss State better here, for whatever reason.
  • Central Florida @ Ohio State (ESPN2): The Big Ten’s other team suspended from postseason play, but unlike Penn State, the Buckeyes still have some teeth. They should win easily.
  • Tulane @ Tulsa (FSN): I won’t believe Tulane is any good at all until proven otherwise.
  • Maryland @ Temple (ESPNU): Temple scored 41 points against Villanova last week. Maryland scored 7 in the 4th quarter to come from behind against William & Mary. Yeah.
  • East Carolina @ South Carolina (SEC): Does South Carolina have a quarterback? We’re still not sure. Nonetheless, it is difficult to pick against them here.

12:30: Ball State @ Clemson (ACC): I nearly didn’t list this one, but well here it is.

3:00: North Carolina @ Wake Forest (ACC/FSN): Again using the “how badly did they beat their opening week creampuff” metric, Carolina wins in a landslide.

3:30:

  • Purdue @ Notre Dame (NBC): Hard to get a read on this one, but it is safe to say that Navy is a slightly more impressive blowout win than Liberty. I’ll take the Irish here.
  • Air Force @ Michigan (ABC/ESPN2): Michigan just has to be too fast for Air Force, don’t they? Maybe they’ll let their awesome running quarterback run the ball this week.
  • Southern California vs. Syracuse (@East Rutherford, NJ; ABC/ESPN2): Syracuse is no longer terrible, but that doesn’t mean they’re good. USC is one of the nation’s top teams, no doubt, but their depth is so razor-thin an injury or two could spell disaster against the right team. Syracuse is not that team.
  • Florida @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (ESPN): Oh boy it’s TAMU’s SEC debut! I’m not really that excited about it. Also, they’ll probably win for what that’s worth.
  • Rice @ Kansas (FSN): Even Kansas should be able to at least beat Rice. Probably. Maybe.
  • Michigan State @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Even if you didn’t know anything about these two teams, you probably still like the chances of the team that starts with the name of the state rather than the one that has a cardinal direction and then the name of the state. Just sayin’.
  • South Florida @ Nevada (CBSS): I like Nevada here. They just beat Cal in the refurbished Memorial Stadium, and USF has to fly all the way to Reno to face off at altitude against Nevada’s somewhat rare offense.
  • Iowa State @ Iowa (BTN): Oof. Iowa only beat Northern Illinois 18-17. This year is certainly ripe for a Iowa State win, which is probably news to many but not Paul Rhodes.
  • Western Kentucky @ Alabama (SEC): A Western Kentucky backup linebacker boasted this week that they’re going to beat Alabama. Look, I think it would be hilarious, but well, good luck with that.

400: Wisconsin @ Oregon State (FX): Sometimes you make a big deal out of top teams nearly losing to FCS teams, especially game ones like Northern Iowa. Sometimes, you don’t. This game is an example of the latter. I like the Badgers here.

7:00:

  • Washington @ Louisiana State (ESPN): As I commented to a Washington alum friend on Facebook, having a live tiger at practice is pretty much a win-win as far as I’m concerned. Still not sure how it will help the Huskies beat LSU, at LSU, at night though, unless they were practicing letting it loose on LSU players or something.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Arkansas (ESPNU): I believe this is my first chance to mention this season how much we here at ASimSports love, love having John L. Smith back as a head coach at a major college program. I may watch this just for the halftime interview. Arkansas should probably still win though.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Mississippi (SEC/FSN): Hey Ole Miss still sucks right? Though I’d like UTEP’s chances a lot better if the game were in the strange confines of El Paso, but I’ll take the Miners anyway.
  • Presbyterian @ Georgia Tech (ESPN3): I spent most of the summer ranting at anyone who would listen how dumb having our most important conference game the first week of the season was, but they, that’s ESPN for you. Anyway, we have to use this game to get back to normal and shake off the rust heading into the remaining two conference games this month, which are now that much (much) more important.

7:30: Nebraska @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): So apparently Taylor Martinez learned how to throw this past offseason and UCLA probably still isn’t really that good? Yeah, those are just the kind of write-ups you’re going to get in September, sorry. I like the Huskers.

7:45: Georgia @ Missouri (ESPN2): Oh good, another SEC debut. I hope Mizzou rips them to shreds, because by joining the SEC Mizzou went from like the 2nd or 3rd best passing team in the Big 12 to far and away the best passing team in the SEC. So you know what, let’s get crazy and pick the Tigers here.

8:00:

  • Louisiana Tech @ Houston (CBSS): Geez Houston we knew that you lost just about everyone from your pretty good team last season but losing to Texas State is just proving that point a little too hard, eh? I’m not sure firing their offensive coordinator is going to fix their issues, so I’ll take LaTech.
  • Vanderbilt @ Northwestern (BTN): Vandy lost in a very Vandy-like fashion last week to a pretty okay South Carolina, while Northwestern came from behind to win dramatically over Syracuse. I think both these teams are pretty decent and will pull off at least one major upset this year, but on this night I like the Commodores.

10:30: Illinois @ Arizona State (ESPN): I just have no opinion on either of these teams, so let’s go back to the creampuff beatdown metric mentioned earlier. Hrm, let’s see… well, even adjusting for the division of the opponent, the scale still favors the Sun Devils.

Don’t forget if you live on the West Coast you probably have a and/or the Pac-12 networks now. Those may get included in future weeks.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 1

Welcome back! This is my weekly guide to each weekend’s slate of televised college football. In general, I list any game that is being televised on a national network, as well as several games that are on regional networks for the ACC and SEC. In addition, CBS Sports Network (CBSS) games are listed if they involve two Division I-A/FCS teams. Also, Georgia Tech games are always listed, regardless of video platform. Massive thanks go out once again to Matt Sarzyniak, for his meticulous listings of all college football on all media platforms everywhere.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:00: South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): The season opens with question marks galore for the Gamecocks, but I have my doubt that even a James Franklin-amplified Vanderbilt can take them.

7:30:

  • Texas Agricultural and Mechanical vs. Louisiana Tech (@Shreveport, LA; ESPNU): This game actually got postponed to October due to Hurricane Isaac. Alas.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Rice (CBSS): Remember that one time, a few years ago, when Rice was kind of good? That was kind of weird, wasn’t it? Well, it’s fortunately not an issue anymore, at least if you’re a Bruins fan.

10:15: Washington State @ Brigham Young (ESPN): Given the fiasco of Mike Leach’s firing at Texas Tech, it seems a little weird that his first game back as a college coach will be on ESPN. Now the question is whether he has managed to transform Wazzou in just one offseason to a somewhat competent outfit, because they will need to be to beat BYU. I’ll take my chances with Leach.

11:00: Minnesota @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): Hey, it’s football, it’s on TV, and is probably one of the few games Minnesota will have a chance to win this year.

Friday
7:30: North Carolina State vs. Tennessee (@Atlanta, GA; ESPNU): This is the appetizer to the Clemson-Auburn game. Like most appetizers, it may offer some excitement but will hopefully not overshadow your main course. It’s hard to get a read on either of these teams (a phrase I am really trying not to overuse in this preview). While NC State was mostly mediocre last season, Tennessee was ravaged by injuries to just about everyone. That said, the Volunteers still seem to be a team with more questions than answers, so I’m going with the Wolfpack.


8:00: Boise State @ Michigan State (ESPN): I’m having a hard time bucking the main thing I’ve learned about Boise going into this season: they’re replacing, like, everyone on offense. Usually not good for an opening road game against a Big Ten school. I’ll take Sparty.

Saturday
9:00 AM: Notre Dame vs. Navy (@Dublin, Ireland; CBS): So they’ve done this a few times, so I guess having a game that kicks off at 6AM on the West Coast seems like a good idea to someone. Anyway, in this series, there’s no reason to really favor Navy over Notre Dame, but there’s plenty of reasons to root for the Midshipmen regardless.

Noon:

  • Marshall @ West Virginia (FX): It’s a rivalry game, which will provide an amount of intrigue that will last probably about as long as WVU’s first two drives on offense.
  • Ohio @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): Boy howdy some stuff sure did happen at Penn State during the offseason. I’m not really sure what else to even say, other than that they’ll probably win this game.
  • Northwestern @ Syracuse (ESPN2): Northwestern should feel right at home. Oh, sure, they’ll be in the Carrier Dome, but they’re on at noon and on ESPN2, which as I was musing recently is pretty much the near-Northwestern-upset-power-hour. Beating the ‘Cuse probably won’t be much of an upset, though.
  • Western Michigan @ Illinois (ESPNU): Playing a MAC team should be nothing new for Tim Beckman, and being at the controls of even Illinois must seem like a huge upgrade.
  • Miami @ Ohio State (BTN): It’s on BTN because, well, it’s the Miami in Ohio. Anyway, start the clock on your brand new Urban Meyer, Buckeye fans, because he’s the supergiant of football coaches: burns brightly for a short period of time and then ends in a fiery explosion.
  • Buffalo @ Georgia (SEC): Remember that one time Buffalo was good and Turner Gill parlayed that into the Kansas job? Yeah, times have changed. Or, more accurately, gone back to normal.

12:30: Elon @ North Carolina (ACC): I struggled to list these games because I just really have nothing to say about Elon or Richmond. I’m still trying to figure out how Julius Peppers’s transcript from UNC was leaked online, though. I’m pretty sure at any rate that violates at least a law or two, right?

3:00: Richmond @ Virginia (ACC): Fun fact: Richmond are the Spiders, making them one of the few college animal mascots that isn’t a mammal or a bird. Remember, though, that spiders are technically not insects, they’re arachnids.

3:30:

  • Miami @ Boston College (ABC/ESPN2): Well, BC fans, Doug Flutie is not walking through that door. Miami should roll.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Nebraska (ABC/ESPN2): Southern Miss should be a pretty solid team this year, by all accounts, but Nebraska should be solid-er, I guess?
  • Bowling Green @ Florida (ESPN): The fact that Florida is treating the game as a tryout to determine their quarterback either says something about the state of their quarterbacks or about how worried they are about their opponent. Or, most likely, a little of both.
  • Iowa vs. Northern Illinois (@Chicago, IL; ESPNU): Schools from the Midwest are okay with playing games in Chicago for the same reason schools from the South are okay with games in Atlanta: a lot of their grads migrate there because that’s where the jobs are. Expect this to basically be an Iowa home game.
  • Northern Iowa @ Wisconsin (BTN): One of these days, Wisconsin will need to develop their own quarterbacks. Saturday will not be that day.

4:00: Colorado State vs. Colorado (@Denver, CO; FX): Note to the lunatic fringe of Georgia Tech fans who want the Georgia game moved to this week: games like this and WVU-Marshall are the sorts of rivalries played on opening weekend. I’d like to think we’re better than this. Buffs should roll.

7:00:

  • Clemson vs. Auburn (@Atlanta, GA; ESPN): Tigers-Tigers! For a game with names like this I should really have something to say about it, but it’s been a quiet offseason for both these teams other than the big pieces they’ve lost: Micheal Dyer and Sammy Watkins. Presumably the latter is a large part of why Clemson is ranked coming into this game as well. That said, Clemson won’t have a new quarterback, unlike Auburn, which should give them a slight edge.
  • North Texas @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): It looks like this game will be played, which means UNT will get their beatdown and subsequent paycheck sooner rather than later.
  • Jackson State @ Mississippi State (SEC/FSN): Even I’m not sure why I listed this game.

7:30: Hawaii @ Southern California (FOX): Yes, nationally televised beatdowns of Hawaii. This is what I needed. (In the off-chance there are any FOX executives reading this: that was not a sincere statement.)

8:00:

  • Alabama vs. Michigan (@Arlington, TX; ABC): This is the big one. Well, I guess. The thing is, unless Denard Robinson is just so utterly fast and unpredictable that the straight-laced Alabama defense can’t account for him, I’m not really sure how the Wolverines have a chance.
  • Rutgers @ Tulane (CBSS): Tulane had to relocate to Birmingham to practice this week. Fortunately for Rutgers, it looks like the New Orleans airport will be back up and running on or by Friday, still giving them enough time to get into town as normal. As if the Green Wave wasn’t at enough of a disadvantage already anyway.
  • Indiana State @ Indiana (BTN): You only need to know two things about Indiana State: they are the Sycamores and Larry Bird played for them (in basketball).

10:30:

  • Arkansas State @ Oregon (ESPN): I can safely say this about this game: points will be scored. I’m still pretty confident Oregon will score more points than Arkansas State, mind you. I’m just saying that this could be a very high scoring game. The over/under is set at 110 right now. I would probably take the over. This could easily be a 84-49 final or something like that.
  • Oklahoma @ Texas-El Paso (FSN): I almost wish I could watch this game. Oh, Oklahoma will almost certainly win. But still, if anything weird is going to happen on this day, my money would be inside the hill that surround the Sun Bowl in the dark of night. So, yeah, either this is the expected Sooner blowout or a very crazy UTEP win (as though there’s any other kind).
  • Toledo @ Arizona (ESPNU): Holy Toledo! That’s all I got. Though, there is a halfway decent chance Arizona is still bad enough to lose this game. Probably not, though.

Sunday
3:30: Kentucky @ Louisville (ESPN): Here’s another opening weekend rivalry game. I guess this is more of a measure of who is going to be less awful this year. Wait, this just in: Louisville is ranked? (No, seriously, I just noticed that.) And is apparently favored to win the Big East? (For what that’s worth, anyway.) I guess I’ll have to go with them then.

6:30: Southern Methodist @ Baylor (FSN): Baylor: probably still better than SMU.

Monday
8:00: Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): Yeah, wow, let’s just, you know, have our most important conference game in the first week of the season. I’m so mad about this I used bold text right there just to demonstrate it. Despite that, the timing may actually favor us. VPI will be breaking in an entirely new offensive line and offensive backfield, as well as several positions on defense. Georgia Tech returns one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, looks to finally have the makings of a decent defense, and has a legitimate offensive star in a-back Orwin Smith. On the flip side, Tech’s (and remember: on this site Tech is always the one in Atlanta) starting an entirely new wide receiver corps and still has shaky special teams. Also, the Hokies still have Paul Bunyan-esque quarterback Logan Thomas, who, at 30 feet tall, needs merely to take the snap and fall over to gain a first down. (Well, at least, that’s what it seemed like last year.) In addition, the game will be at night and in Blacksburg with all the attendant issues that brings. (The last time the Jackets went up to Blacksburg at night was the night everything went wrong when Josh Nesbitt broke his arm trying tackle a guy running back an interception.) Also, if you haven’t heard this already, since the ACC has had divisions, the winner of the Coastal division has always been the winner of this game, and VPI holds a 5-2 advantage in that regard (with Tech’s wins coming at Blacksburg in 2006 and in Atlanta in 2009). So chances are, this one will be fun, unless you’re me, in which case I’ll be losing my mind either way.

Programming note: I wanted to get a post analyzing this year’s batch of rule changes in, but I only found the exact rule changes a few weeks ago after I started doing the OOC scheduling series and never got around to it. I’ll try to do that in the next couple of weeks.

Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

And here’s the promised wrap-up.

First, the shaming. There are four teams that play two FCS teams this year: Texas A&M, Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. The latter two at least have a good excuse, as they need to fill out a five game non-conference schedule.

Due to our revised method of rating the “legit”-ness of teams, there are more zeros this year than in years past. Therefore, I’m only going to rank the top four worst schedules, which are somewhat arbitrarily decided.

  1. Dishonorable mention: the bottom four teams in the Pac-12: Utah, Washington State, Colorado, and Oregon. Especially the latter two, and really especially Oregon. I guess they thought they needed a breather from playing other major teams.
  2. Mississippi State (0, 1.5): Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee State. I don’t really include the Kansases and Indianas of the world on lists like this because hey, they’re awful, it’s okay to not load up your schedule. But Miss State isn’t really awful, so there’s less of an excuse. I suspect they probably go with something along the lines of the “toughest division in college football” or some such.
  3. Texas Tech (0, 1.5): Northwestern State, @Texas State, New Mexico. There’s nothing approaching a good team on this schedule, and there’s an inexplicable road game to a school that isn’t a full FBS member yet.
  4. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (0, 2): N-Louisiana Tech, @Southern Methodist, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State. There’s nothing here that really justifies playing two FCS teams. Sure the game at SMU could be a challenge but I have my doubts

The top schedules list isn’t terribly inspiring this year, and there’s certainly no equivalent of last year, where LSU played both Oregon and West Virginia. The below are probably the top four non-conference schedules in the land.

  1. Miami (1.75 legit/0.4375 average, 1 FCS): @Kansas State, Bethune-Cookman, Notre Dame, South Florida. Three “major” teams, and a road game. Not bad.
  2. Clemson (1.75/0.4375, 1): N-Auburn, Ball State, Furman, South Carolina. Tigers-Tigers should be an interesting game, which is the main thing that keeps this above Miami because I ordinarily discount rivalry games for this purpose.
  3. Michigan (1.75/0.4375, 0.5): N-Alabama, Air Force, Massachusetts, @Notre Dame. Michigan-Alabama is one of the premiere matchups of the year, even if almost everyone thinks Michigan will lose.
  4. Syracuse (2.25/0.45, 1): Northwestern, N-Southern California, Stony Brook, @Minnesota, @Missouri. Quantity over quality for this one perhaps, though there is the game against USC. Even taking the average into account, the ‘Cuse still comes out on top. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for their chances in most of these games.

While I’m at it, here’s a quick list of teams that play only full-on FBS teams this year: Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, and Nebraska.

And, finally, the ranking of conferences by their members’ “legit” average.

  1. ACC (0.276)
  2. Pac-12 (0.2153)
  3. Big East (0.2125)
  4. SEC (0.172)
  5. Big Ten (0.1354)
  6. Big 12 (0.1)

 A-C-C! A-C-C! I suppose.

Anyway, real, actual football talk will be coming, and not a moment too soon. Until then!

      Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: SEC

      First, a quick note: one of my favorite college football blogs, Sunday Morning Quarterback, is back. I’ve been following Matt Hinton’s other efforts since he retired from doing SMQ four years ago, but none of them are quite the same as the more long-form, statistically-inclined writing he produced for his original blog.

      So anyway, we’ll wrap up our tour of this year’s non-conference schedules with the SEC.

      1. Alabama (1 legit, 1 FCS): N-Michigan, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina. Alabama-Michigan is one of the most intriguing games of this season, though it’s hard to see how Michigan will win unless Denard Robinson is just utterly beguiling to Alabama’s uber-disciplined defense.
      2. Mississippi (1, 1): Central Arkansas, Texas-El Paso, Texas, @Tulane. Ole Miss gets two teams from Texas in town. Will they be good enough to beat either?
      3. Florida (1, 1): Bowling Green, Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, @Florida State. Not much to look at here other than the obligatory FSU game, which is why this is #3 on this list.
      4. Auburn (0.75, 1): N-Clemson, Louisana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical. Tigers-Tigers is back once again. I was hoping Auburn also played Mizzou, but they’ll be the other other Tigers in the SEC schedule this year. Also, I find it a bit odd that Auburn would actually play Alabama A&M, but A&M’s probably just that bad that they’re not as worried as they would be about playing, say, the Troys or UABs of the world.
      5. South Carolina (0.75, 1): East Carolina, Alabama-Birmingham, Wofford, @Clemson. Unfortunately, I had to break this tie backed on the strength of obligatory rivalry games. Us Tech fans tend to be a self-deprecating bunch, though, so it wasn’t really that hard of a decision. Also, that makes UGA look worse, which is also always a good thing.
      6. Georgia (0.75, 1): Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech. Suspicious Tech fans would probably that UGA is playing Georgia Southern, who run pretty much the same offense as us, as preparation for the game against us. To which I’d say, you’re probably over-thinking it.
      7. Vanderbilt (0.75, 1.5): @Northwestern, Presbyterian, Massachusetts, @Wake Forest. Next year, this schedule would let Vandy get up to the 4th spot because they’re playing two major conference teams (even if they are Northwestern and Wake Forest), but alas, UMass is still provisional.
      8. Louisiana State (0.5, 1): North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson. Well, there is that game against UDub. Honestly, the game I’m looking to most this year for LSU is the Arkansas game. Les Miles versus John L. Smith, a matchup of two of the probably craziest coaches in major college football.
      9. Missouri (0.5, 1): Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona State, @Central Florida, Syracuse. Now that the Mizzou-Illinois series is over, Mizzou’s schedule is just that much more boring. How did it not work out for them to play Kansas again?
      10. Tennessee (0.5, 1): N-North Carolina State, Georgia State, Akron, Troy. If the Tennessee-NC State game were scheduled for, let’s say, Octoboer, then I’m not sure anyone would care outside of their respective fanbases. But hey, have it to help kick off the season? Now we’re talking.
      11. Kentucky (0.5, 1): @Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford. Not much to see here. Obligatory rivalry game, a MAC team, another in-state team that it would be really funny if they lost to, and an FCS team. Again, not much to see here.
      12. Arkansas (0.25, 1): Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rutgers, Tulsa. Well, I already used my Arkansas-LSU thing for LSU, so I have to figure out an alternate strategy to use here. Maybe complain about how last year this would be the last blurb I’d have to write? No, not quite true yet. Maybe point out that the UL-Monroe game will be at Arkansas’s home-away-from-home, War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock? Maybe look up to see if the Rutgers game has a return leg? Let’s go with that, because yes it does: the Razorbacks will make the return trip to scenic Piscataway, New Jersey. Well, I’m guessing it’s scenic because the Wikipedia article only has a picture of dudes grilling Greek food on it and not any pictures of the town.
      13. Mississippi State (0, 1.5): Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee State. Watch out, Miss State: the last major conference team to visit Troy was Oklahoma State in 2007. They lost 41-23. Other than that, not much here to worry about for the bulldogs.
      14. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (0, 2): N-Louisiana Tech, @Southern Methodist, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State. I’m not sure if the LaTech game is a neutral game site game or not, as it could just be a home game that’s being played in Shreveport instead of Ruston. Either way, A&M probably is probably as worried about this schedule as I am excited about it, which is to say, not very worried at all.

      That’s that! Soon, a hastily put together wrap-up of it all, and then hopefully the opening weekend TV guide in time for the kickoffs Thursday.