This Weekend in College Football: Week 3

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • California-Los Angeles @ Nebraska (ABC): I’m still a bit boggled that either, much less both, of these teams are ranked, but that’s Week 3 for you. I’m going to roll with Nebraska in this one.
  • Louisville @ Kentucky (ESPN): I’m finding it incredibly easy to pick against the team that lost to Western Kentucky in Week 1. Hint: it wasn’t Louisville.
  • Tulsa @ Oklahoma (ESPN2): Maybe instead of conference moves I should’ve made a table of coaching moves because I keep forgetting that Derek Dooley is now the head coach at Tulsa. It should probably not be a huge surprise, then, Tulsa hasn’t been very good this year and that a potentially intriguing game is now likely to be a laugher.
  • Virginia Tech @ East Carolina (FS1): It’s difficult to really predict that VPI will lose this game, though exactly how they will score any points is unclear.
  • Bowling Green @ Indiana (ESPNU): This doesn’t happen very often, but, well, I’m going to pick a MAC team over a Big Ten team.
  • Stanford @ Army (CBSS): As noted in my Pac-12 out-of-conference scheduling preview, Army fans should enjoy the sights from Michie Stadium, as the action on the field likely won’t be as appealing as the scenic beauty of the Hudson River Valley.
  • Akron @ Michigan (BTN): I don’t really need a lot of convincing to pick Michigan here.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Arkansas (SEC): It looks like it won’t just be a one-year funk for Southern Miss. As noted elsewhere, their best bet for a win in the first two months of the season was against Texas State and they blew it. Their odds are not any better against the Razorbacks.

12:30:

  • New Mexico @ Pittsburgh (ACC): Similarly, losing to Texas-San Antonio is also not a great sign, so I’ll take Pitt here.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Wake Forest (ACC): I have actually seen at least one person suggest that Jim Grobe is on the hot seat. I wasn’t aware that a Wake Forest football coach could ever even have a warm seat, but here we are. The problem is that I still have a tough time taking a Sun Belt team over an ACC team, so I’m going to stick with Wake.

3:00: Boston College @ Southern California (FS1): Look, I know Washington State is bad and all, but it’s hard to ignore that on paper USC out-classes Boston College so thoroughly I’m not sure how I could pick against them in this situation. So I won’t. But I won’t be surprised if they lose, either. (In fact, I’ll probably think it’s hilarious.)

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (CBS): Well, here we are. The Game of the Week of the Year of the Century, for Week 3. All available evidence suggests that both these teams are really good. If anything, I still think that Alabama is slightly better, especially on defense. Looking back over last year’s game, the thing that stands out to me is A.J. McCarron’s uncharacteristic 2 interceptions. In addition, Alabama also had a fumble. In a five-point game, three turnovers is more than likely to be the difference. I don’t think Alabama will make those mistakes again, and come away with the win.
  • Tennessee @ Oregon (ABC): Apparently my worries were unfounded and Tennessee and Oregon fans get along just fine. Of course, Oregon should also notch a win here without much resistance, which may help.
  • Nevada @ Florida State (ESPN): Losing to UCLA by 38 does not bode well for the Wolfpack heading into Tallahassee.
  • Georgia Tech @ Duke (ESPNU): Few things make me feel older than, perhaps, the regular staff of writer for the only Georgia Tech blog I read, From the Rumble Seat. (As A5 often notes, the downside of not having a journalism school is that means GT doesn’t really turn out a lot of interesting bloggers, and trust me, I do not think I am interesting.) One such example was that in their pre-season previews, one of them mentioned that he couldn’t remember the last time Georgia Tech lost to Duke. Well, I can, because it happened my freshman year. And that’s when I remember that my freshman year was 10 years ago. And then I feel old.
    So, yes, in addition to feeling the inevitability of aging, there are some other things going on here. We, unhelpfully, had a bye in Week 2. I probably would’ve preferred to have that in the middle of conference play, but oh well. Other fun facts: Duke is by far Tech’s most-played ACC opponent (this will be their 81st meeting) and they have met every year since 1933. The last time the game was played in neither November nor October was 1996. Also, Duke will be without their first-choice quarterback, but from what I’ve read there wasn’t that much of a difference between the starter and the backup anyway. They both represent a departure from the Sean Renfree years, as apparently Cutcliffe is going toward more the read-option style and away from the classic NFL-style QBs that got him where he is today (read: the Manning brothers). This also means that what most people tabbed as one of GT’s strongest units – the pass defense – will be negated somewhat. Duke, unlike Tech, has played a FBS opponent this year, though it was Memphis and they only won by 14. Since otherwise the teams have only played FCS teams, there’s just no way to make any definitive judgments here.

4:00: Ball State @ North Texas (FSN): UNT is in C-USA now? Huh. Either way, Ball State looks better so far.

6:00:

  • Iowa @ Iowa State (FS1): Well, at least Iowa beat the the FCS team they played. This could well be a trainwreck game, which in fairness is still a little interesting since it is a rivalry game and all. I’ll go with Iowa but I’m not sure why.
  • Washington @ Illinois (BTN): Perhaps one of the most surprising results of this young season was Illinois’s domination of a slightly well-regarded Cincinnati team last weekend. Washington’s dominant win over Boise State is probably still more impressive, and plus, I think everyone had this one as a walk-over for the Huskies so may as well stick with it.

7:00:

  • Ohio State @ California (FOX): Seeing as how Cal already lost to Northwestern by two touchdowns back in Week 1, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to pick the Buckeyes here.
  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (ESPN): I watched the South Carolina-Georgia game last weekend, and I have to say, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an offense so dedicated to avoiding one particular defensive player like Georgia avoided Clowney in that game. I am pretty much convinced the call was always that the play-side would be the opposite of whatever side he lined up on. That said, while this is new and improved Vandy, the Gamecocks are still the superior squad and will be seeking to re-assert that in this game.
  • Mississippi State @ Auburn (ESPN2): I can’t really come up with anything nice to say about either of these teams, other than the score will probably not be 3-2 again and that I’m going with the Bulldogs.
  • Kent State @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.

7:30: Kansas @ Rice (CBSS): What’s worse than only having only two games of data? Only having one! But that’s what we have here. I guess I’ll pick Kansas and we’ll see what happens.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Purdue (ABC): I try to keep this joke in reserve and only use it once a week: <Team> Status: Still awful! So I think you can put the pieces together here.
  • Marshall @ Ohio (ESPNEWS): Still fascinated by the fact that ESPNEWS is showing live football games. Not so much by this game, though. Marshall’s… probably going to win?

9:00: Western Michigan @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern.

10:00: Oregon State @ Utah (FS1): I think this is probably a minor upset, but I’m going with the Utes here.

10:30:

  • Wisconsin @ Arizona State (ESPN): This may be the most underrated game of the day, and is certainly a boon to those of us in the West. I mean, I think it’s still pending whether or not Arizona State is going to be any good, but the Badgers are at least a known, above-average quantity. There will definitely be a bit of fun in the contrasting style, with Wisconsin bringing the typical Midwestern cloud of dust offense and the Sun Devils supplying the West Coast aerial goodness. Which will prevail? Well, I’m going to go with the Badgers.
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Arizona (Pac12): Arizona.

2014 World Cup Update: Selected Scenarios for Sept. 10

More World Cup qualification scenarios, hopefully correct!

AFC

Uzbekistan will advance to the inter-confederation playoff against the 5th place CONMEBOL team with a win or draw against Jordan. Therefore, Jordan must win outright to advance.

CONCACAF

  • The United States will directly qualify for the World Cup if they defeat Mexico and Honduras wins or draws against Panama.
  • Costa Rica will directly qualify for the World Cup with a win and a Honduras win or draw against Panama.

CONMEBOL

  • With a Uruguay loss to Colombia, Argentina and Colombia will directly qualify for the World Cup.
  • Argentina will directly qualify with a win over Paraguay.
  • Argentina can directly qualify with a draw if Uruguay loses or draws against Colombia.

UEFA

  • Italy will directly qualify for the World Cup with a win over the Czech Republic.
  • Italy can directly qualify with a draw if Bulgaria draws against Malta.
  • Italy can directly qualify even with a loss if Bulgaria loses to Malta.
  • Germany can directly qualify with a win over the Faroe Islands if Sweden loses or draws against Kazakhstan.
  • The Netherlands can directly qualify with a win over Andorra and a Romania loss or draw against Turkey.
  • The Netherlands can also directly qualify with a draw and a Romania loss.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 2

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Florida @ Miami (ESPN): This has always been an under-played rivialry, with the two in-state foes having only met 55 times. (Though as EDSBS is fond of saying, football didn’t really exist in the state of Florida before 1980.) I personally have to give Florida the edge in this one, as they seem to exist in some sort of version of existence where offense is entirely optional.
  • Cincinnati @ Illinois (ESPN2): Cincy isn’t great or anything, but Illinois isn’t really even good, so that’s what this one is probably going to come down to.
  • South Florida @ Michigan State (ESPNU): Let’s just say that it is very difficult to pick in favor of a team that lost to McNeese State last weekend.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas-San Antonio (FS1): Oklahoma State.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Pennsylvania State (BTN): Penn State.
  • Western Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee.
  • Miami @ Kentucky (SEC/FSN): Kentucky?

12:30: Middle Tennessee State @ North Carolina (ACC): Well, MTSU won its last game against an ACC team, but nonetheless I like UNC’s chances here.

3:30:

  • Oregon @ Virginia (ABC/ESPN2): Oregon.
  • San Diego State @ Ohio State (ABC/ESPN2): Ohio State.
  • Buffalo @ Baylor (FSN): Baylor.
  • Toledo @ Missouri (ESPNU): Mizzou?
  • Utah State @ Air Force (CBSS): This might be the most interesting game of this bunch, which is kind of saying something. I would go with Utah State here after their close loss to big brother Utah last weekend, but I’m going to roll with the Air Force.

4:30: South Carolina @ Georgia (ESPN): And we’re finally out of the doldrums. This one is going to be pretty good I think, but unfortunately I have to give UGA a slight edge at home. I don’t want to, but there it is.

6:00: Syracuse @ Northwestern (BTN): Northwestern had a pretty good drubbing of Cal last weekend, good enough to make be feel good enough about their chances at home against the Orange.

7:00:

  • West Virginia @ Oklahoma (FOX): West, er, Frickin’ Virginia will get its first chance to show that may actually play defense this year in what will probably be difficult conditions. It’s hard to see them passing the test.
  • Texas @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Texas can probably take care of business in Provo. Probably.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): LSU.
  • Colorado State @ Tulsa (CBSS): Hey so is Tulsa any good this year… (checks) … let’s see… lost to Bowling Green 34-7. Off. Going with the Rams.

7:30: Arkansas State @ Auburn (SEC/FSN): The fact I had to think about this for a second says way more about Auburn than Arkansas State. Still going with Auburn though.

8:00:

  • Notre Dame @ Michigan (ESPN): Game of the day, but is this really going to be that close? Emotion can only carry you so far. That said, we have precious little data at this point of the season, what with both teams having dispatched their designated patsies last week. So, yeah, basically I’m just guessing here, and my guess is going to be the Irish.
  • Hawaii @ Oregon (PAC12): Oregon.

10:30:

  • Washington State @ Southern California (FS1): Southern Cal?
  • Arizona @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): Arizona.
  • San Jose State @ Stanford (PAC12): Stanford.

Sorry for the abbreviated preview, but that’s what you get when this is written at 37,000 feet somewhere over eastern Nevada. We’ll be back in full next weekend.

    2014 World Cup Update: As of September 5

    Soon, a fresh new batch of qualifiers will kick off around the world. We preview where the remaining teams stand and the obstacles they face between themselves and Brazil.

     Other than the hosts, 4 teams have qualified, 87 are still in play, and 27 spots remain.

    AFC
    Asia’s automatic qualifiers are now in place: Iran, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. But to determine their playoff qualifier against a South American team, the third place teams from their fourth round, Jordan and Uzbekistan, will kick off tomorrow. The games will take place Friday and Tuesday, and the winner on aggregate advances to the aforementioned playoff. Considering that they lost on a goal differential tiebreaker to South Korea, Uzbekistan should be the favorites. (The Jordanians sported a -9 goal differential to Uzbekistan’s +5.)

    CAF
    As you might’ve seen in the post on what’s needed to advance, there’s plenty of action on the last day of the CAF 2nd Round. Groups C, G, and H are settled though: Cote d’Ivorie, Egypt, and Algeria are all through to the third round, which will kickoff in October. Those three teams will join all the other group winners, and they will all be paired off in home-and-home ties. The winner of each of those advances directly to the World Cup.

    CONCACAF
    There’s actually a fun scenario I didn’t list on the page for CONCACAF, but mostly because it requires a very specific set of circumstances: the US must defeat Costa Rica, Mexico and Honduras must draw, and Panama must lose or draw against Jamaica. It’s complex because you can’t do the “add future points to current points”, you have to take the remaining schedules into account. (For instances, if Costa Rica wins out after losing to the US, then it’s not possible for Mexico win out, etc.)

    Of course, that’s unlikely to happen. Jamaica has earned zero points in road games this round, and managed only a 1-1 draw at home with Panama. Mexico will be (well, they should be) desperate to hold serve at home against Honduras, though it’s not inconceivable Mexico will remain the same punchless team they’ve been most of this year and only manage a draw against what is likely to be a bunkered-in Honduras.

    CONMEBOL
    The top four teams currently are Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile. Argentina has clinched at least a spot on the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, but they don’t play Friday so as far as I know they cannot clinch yet. The top four lead the 5th place team, Uruguay, by 5 points, which is comfortable but not yet insurmountable. They also have a winnable game against Peru on Friday that should allow them to keep up with the top 4 for now. Tied with Uruguay though are the surprising Venezuelans, who are seeking their first ever trip to the World Cup.

    UEFA
    The European picture lacks a great amount of clarity, despite most teams having four or fewer matches remaining.

    The clearest is perhaps Group A, where Belgium or Croatia will make it past the first round, but since they are sitting on 19 and 16 points, respectively, it’s not clear who will come in first yet. Belgium seems to be the obvious candidate, undefeated so far in group play, but they still have to go on the road to Zagreb in October.

    Though no one has been eliminated yet in Group B, Italy a slight edge as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic fight for second. If Italy can hold serve against Bulgaria at home on Friday, then they can start to get a little bit of separation.

    Germany is close. They have 5 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in group play so far and have a 5 point lead over Austria. The real battle in Group C is the fight for second, as Austria, Sweden, and Ireland all sit on 11 points, so things could get pretty interesting come October.

    The Dutch are running away with Group D, holding a 7 point lead over Hungary. Hungary themselves are only a point ahead of Romania. The fight is probably for second in Group E as well. Switzerland has a 4 point lead, but 4 points is all that separates second from fifth.

    Group F is a tossup. Portugal (14), Russia (12), and Israel (11) are all within three points of the lead, a situation made all the more interesting when, back in August, Russia lost a snow make-up game to Northern Ireland. All three should win their matches Friday, meaning the real action starts on Tuesday when Russia plays Israel.

    It’s tempting to go with the chalk in Group G, where Bosnia has 16 points (and a +20 goal differential), Greece has 13 points, and Slovakia has 9. But I would say don’t count out the Slovaks, who made the Sweet 16 in South Africa.

    Group H proves looks can deceiving. Montenegro is topping the group with 14 points, but they’ve played one more game than England (12) and the Ukraine (11). Also on Friday, England and the Ukraine get winnable matches against minnows, while Poland at least stands a chance against Montenegro.

    Everyone thought Group I would be a two-horse race, especially since those horses are the reigning champions and France. And, well, that’s pretty much the way it’s played out, but right now the Spanish are only up by a point. The difference in the group could be Spain’s win over France back in March.

    That’s that! Don’t forget that ESPN will be streaming a boatload of qualifiers online, so be sure to catch them.

    2014 World Cup Update: Selected Scenarios for September 6

    These are the advancement scenarios for the African World Cup qualifiers to be held on September 6th. More teams in other confederations with likely be able to clinch advancement on Tuesday, so we’ll examine them after Friday’s action.

    CAF

    16 teams from 7 groups attempting to advance to the Third Round. Cote d’Ivoire (Group C), Egypt (Group G), and Algeria (Group H) have already clinched.

    Group A

    Current leaders Ethiopia will advance with:

    • A win over Central African Republic
    • A draw and a South Africa draw or loss to Botswana
    • A loss and a draw between South Africa and Botswana

    South Africa can advance with:

    • A win over Botswana and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic

    Botswana can advance with a win over South Africa and an Ethiopia loss to Central African Republic.

    Group B

    Tunisia and Cape Verde top the group with 11 and 9 points, respectively. Tunisia advances with a win or draw and Cape Verde advances with a win.

    Group D

    Ghana and Zambia top the group with 12 and 11 points, respectively. Ghana advances with a win or draw while Zambia must win.

    Group E

    Current leaders Congo advance with:

    • A win over Niger
    • A draw and a Burkina Faso loss to Gabon
    • A loss and a Burkina Faso draw as long as Congo loses by only 1 goal
    • A loss by 2 goals and a Burnkina Faso draw results in more complicated scenarios
    • A loss and a Gabon win over Burkina Faso by less than 4 goals, or 5 goals with more complicated scenarios

    Burnkina Faso can advance with a win over Gabon and a Congo loss or draw to Niger; or a draw and a Congo loss by more than 2 goals.

    Gabon can advance with a win and a Congo loss to Niger by more than 4 goals.

    Group F

    Nigeria leads Malawi 9 points to 7. If Nigeria beats or draws Malawi they advance, while Malawi needs a win.

    Group I

    Cameroon leads Libya 10 points to 9. If Cameroon beats or draws Libya they advance, while Libya must win.

    Group J

    Senegal leads Uganda 9 points to 8. If Senegal beats or draws Uganda, they advance, while Uganda must win.