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This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

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As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Mississippi @ Florida (ABC): Gators, do your part to try to prevent the SEC from getting four teams in. Please.
  • Indiana @ Ohio State (FOX): Sigh. I love what Indiana, one of the most woebegone programs in n major college football, has the chance to do here. The problem is, I don’t really think they can.
  • Wake Forest @ Miami (ESPN): The Canes got got once, they’ll be fine herem
  • Southern Methodist @ Virginia (ESPN2): I guess SMU is actually good? What a weird first year in the conference for them, but it seems like it’s working out.
  • North Carolina @ Boston College (The CW): I had a UNC grad tell me this week their defense is better this year. I mean, I understand the bar is low, but still. I like BC here.
  • Iowa @ Maryland (BTN): Iowa. I otherwise don’t wanna think about this.
  • Yale @ Harvard (ESPNU)
  • Connecticut @ Syracuse (ACCN): UConn is bowl eligible, but the Orange are gonna… bowl over them.
  • Sam Houston State @ Jacksonville State (CBSS): Jax State?
  • Illinois @ Rutgers (Peacock)

12:45: Massachusetts @ Georgia (SEC): Presumably UGA won’t get caught looking ahead to next week here.

1:00:

  • Texas-El Paso @ Tennessee (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Liberty (ESPN+)

1:30: Charleston Southern @ Florida State (ACCNX)

2:00:

  • Bowling Green @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • Montana @ Montana State (“The Brawl of the Wild”; ESPN+)

2:30:

  • James Madison @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Florida International @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
  • Arizona @ Texas Christian (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Kentucky @ Texas (ABC): Hey, name Texas’s best win. It’s cool, I can wait. It would be hilarious if Kentucky wins, but I’m still not holding my breath.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Minnesota (CBS): I think the Gophers can win, but it remains the position of this website that James Franklin will be the first head coach to lose home playoff game.
  • Colorado @ Kansas (@Kansas City, MO; FOX): Kansas is fully back, but I’ve learned my lesson about picking against Colorado.
  • Brigham Young @ Arizona State (ESPN): Arizona State is better than you think. This seems like the Big 12 upset of the day.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (FS1): Wolverines. Next!
  • The Citadel @ Clemson (The CW)
  • Wisconsin @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska, please win this so I don’t have to hear about you losing 7 in a row.
  • Central Florida @ West Virginia (ESPNU): WVU?
  • Stanford @ California (“The Big Game”; ACCN): The cognitive dissonance of seeing this game on the ACC Network is still strong. As for the game itself, it’ll be wet but this should be Cal all the way.
  • San Diego State @ Utah State (CBSS): Aztecs?
  • Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
  • East Carolina @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Tulsa @ South Florida (ESPN+)
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Pittsburgh @ Louisville (ESPN2): I assume Louisville won’t completely botch the end of a game two weeks in a row, right? Right?
  • Louisiana Tech @ Arkansas (ESPN+)
  • Wofford @ South Carolina (ESPN+)

4:15: Missouri @ Mississippi State (SEC): Mizzou. Next!

5:00: Troy @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@New York City, NY; NBC): This is probably the most important Army-Notre Dame game since 1946. Unfortunately, I’m not sure Army has much of a chance, but we’ll find out.
  • Baylor @ Houston (FS1): Bears all the way here.
  • Washington State @ Oregon State (The CW): It’s the Pac-12 championship game. It’ll be worth a peek, but the Beavers are just too inept offensively to keep up with Wazzu.
  • Boise State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Wyoming’s rush defense versus the best running back in college football. Next!
  • Georgia State @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Alabama @ Oklahoma (ABC): Bama. Next!
  • Iowa State @ Utah (FOX): Clones?
  • Texas A&M @ Auburn (ESPN): Aggies.
  • Marshall @ Old Dominion (ESPNU): Herd.

7:45: Vanderbilt @ Louisiana State (SEC): Vandy winning this one might be even funnier than when they beat Bama. Not saying it’ll happen, but…

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Kansas State (ESPN2): Cincy is getting better, but still going with K-State.
  • Virginia Tech @ Duke (ACCN): VPI. Next!

10:15: Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (NBC): Neither of the teams is good, but the colors will be pretty and USC will win easily.

10:30:

  • Air Force @ Nevada (FS1): Wolf pack. Next!
  • Colorado State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Here’s your fantastic late night game. The Rams are better than anyone thought, and Fresno is one of the measuring sticks in this league. I like the Rams but I like the chances of this being a good game better.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Notre Dame @ Clemson (ABC): I’m on the road and so this may be short. But yeah, Clemson got an all-time call-in show performance by Dabo Swinney earlier this week. Generally speaking,  I view that as a reason to go with Notre Dame.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FOX): I think Texas has enough firepower to win this one, which is good, because they really need to take care of business.
  • Ohio State @ Rutgers (CBS): Buckeyes all the way here.
  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): Are to the point of the season yet where Ole Miss drops a game because Lane is too busy trying to get another job? Not yet? Okay.
  • Arkansas @ Florida (ESPN2): The Hogs are still limited by their lack of offense, and even with a coordinator change I don’t see things going much better against the Gators.
  • Nebraska @ Michigan State (FS1): I’m actually going to pick Nebraska? Man that feels weird.
  • Wisconsin @ Indiana (BTN): Wisky all the way here.
  • Jacksonville State @ South Carolina (ESPNU): Jax State is having a first great season in FBS. But the Gamecocks are still going to win.
  • Connecticut @ Tennessee (SEC): Vols.
  • Campbell @ North Carolina (ACCN)

2:00:

  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (The CW): Okay, so at this point we’re going to keep the every other week thing right? (Looks at remaining schedule.) Right?
  • Arizona State @ Utah (Pac12): Utah is good but I think they’re more or less out of bodies. I’ll take the Sun Devils.
  • Navy @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Army vs. Air Force (@Denver, CO; CBSSN): Army just doesn’t have the juice this year, which should allow the Falcons to cruise to the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.

3:00:

  • Florida Atlantic @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPN+)
  • Texas-San Antonio @ North Texas (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana @ Arkansas State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Missouri @ Georgia (CBS): Like many Georgia games this year, a seemingly gettable UGA squad will make one of their better opponents look silly.
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (“Bedlam”; ABC): Provided I don’t become the God-Emporer of College Football in the near future, this is the last Bedlam for a while. The joke, of course, is that “anything can happen in Bedlam: Oklahoma can win by a little, a lot, or a medium amount”. And the overall series record for this game reflects that. (91-17-7 OU, btw.) And, yet, despite the joke, I think after OU’s stumble in Lawrence last weekend anything can happen. And you know that as the jilted partner her, Stillwater is going to be up for it. So what the hell, let’s take the Pokes.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Maryland (FOX): Presumably Earth, Wind, and Fire is playing on loop in the Maryland football building.
  • Florida State @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): The Superweapon is presumably too depleted to knock off FSU here.
  • James Madison @ Georgia State (ESPN2): JMU all the way.
  • Central Florida @ Cincinnati (FS1): Well, I guess UCF will finally get a Big 12 win.
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (BTN): The Illni defense is going to just stuff the Gophers into a locker.
  • Tulane @ East Carolina (ESPNU): The Green Wave will take care of business here.
  • Virginia Tech @ Louisville (ACCN): I didn’t expect to even give the Hokies a chance, but here we are. I think the toothéd birds can get back in track here though.
  • Iowa vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; Peacock)
  • Merrimack @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)
  • Houston @ Baylor (ESPN+)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SEC): LIGHTNING ROUND. Tigers!
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
  • Charlotte @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

5:00: Georgia Southern @ Texas State (ESPN+)

5:30: California @ Oregon (Pac12): Ducks!

6:00:

  • Marshall @ Appalachian State (NFLN): Herd.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Liberty (CBSSN): Flames.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ New Mexico (MWN)
  • Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Brigham Young @ West Virginia (FOX): ‘Neers.
  • Kansas @ Iowa State (ESPN): Jayhawks?
  • Utah State @ San Diego State (FS1): Aztecs?

7:30:

  • Washington @ Southern California (ABC): Oh my goodness this game. Will UDub get enough stops? Becuase they might put up 80, but they’ll need to stop Caleb Williams and company at least once. I like the Huskies.
  • Purdue @ Michigan (NBC): Wolverines.
  • Southern Methodist @ Rice (ESPNU): Ponies.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (SEC): Wildcats.

7:45: Louisiana State @ Alabama (CBS): Tide.

8:00: Miami @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Cane’s?

9:00:

  • Stanford @ Washington State (Pac12): Cougs!
  • Western Kentucky @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

10:00:

  • Oregon State @ Colorado (ESPN): Beavers!
  • Boise State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno.

10:30: California-Los Angeles @ Arizona (FS1): Bruins?

 

2022 World Cup Update

Hey, I definitely haven’t done of these in a while. So here’s the situation.

The World Cup will happen in Qatar in November of this year. It’s pretty close! Plus, as you might guess, a certain worldwide pandemic delayed most confederation’s qualifying tournaments. Let’s review the action so far, broken down by confederation.

And don’t forget: I have the status of every member of FIFA right here, including the date they either qualified or were eliminated. Take a look!

AFC

46 countries from Asia began competing in 2019 for four spots directly in the final field of 32 and one playoff spot. Asian qualifying was some of the first qualifying to be played, with the first qualifier for the 2022 World Cup taking place on June 6, 2019 between Mongolia and Brunei. (Mongolia won 2-0.) This was part of the first round series of home-and-home legs between the bottom 12 teams in the AFC.

The winners of those ties joined the other 34 countries in the second round. These 40 teams were then drawn into eight groups of five, with each team playing the other teams in their group twice.  These matches were played starting in September 2019 and were disrupted by the pandemic. and were resumed in 2021. Qatar, as the host country, also participated since the matches doubled as qualifiers for the AFC’s cup competition. Qatar won their group, so their group’s runner up (Oman) advanced, along with 4 other second-place teams to the third round.

The third round drew the 12 remaining teams into two groups of six, playing a double-round-robin. The top two teams from each group will qualify for the World Cup, and the third place teams will playoff for a spot in the playoff. Currently, only Iran has qualified. Later on in this post I have the scenarios for the next matchday in the AFC.

CAF

The bulk of African qualifying has been competed. The first round began with the 28 lowest ranked teams competing in home-and-home legs with the winner on aggregate advancing to the second round. These matches were competed in September 2019.

The second round, originally scheduled for 2020, was moved to September 2021. The second round consisted of 10 groups of 4 playing double-round-robin matches, with the 10 group winners advancing to the third round.

CAF’s third round is particularly brutal. Africa gets five spots in the World Cup, and so the 5 home-and-home matches will determine who qualifies. These matches will take place in late March, and feature a mix of classically strong African teams and some newcomers:

  • Egypt vs. Senegal
  • Algeria vs. Cameroon
  • Ghana vs. Nigeria
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo vs. Morocco
  • Mali vs. Tunisia

CONCACAF

The confederation that’s home to North and Central America, and the Caribbean, originally envisioned a crazy final round designed to keep the smaller teams interested. The pandemic scuttled those plans, so I’ll focus on the format that actually happened.

The first round took place in March and June of 2021. The 30 lowest ranked teams were drawn into 6 groups of five, and played 4 single-round-robin matches. The group winners advanced to the second round.

The second round took place in late March 2021. The six group winners were paired off and played home-and-home matches, with the winner advancing on aggregate goals. None of these were particularly close: El Salvador advance 6-0 on aggregate, Canada advanced 4-0 on aggregate, and Panama advanced 2-1 on aggregate (with a shutout in the second leg). These three joined the top five ranked teams in CONCACAF for the third round, which is still on-going. The eight teams are playing a double-round-robin with the top three teams advancing directly to the World Cup, and the fourth place team advancing to a playoff. While no one can clinch in this window, Honduras has been eliminated and Jamaica can be eliminated on Wednesday. (See below.)

CONMEBOL

South America yet again has the most elegant qualifying format. The 10 teams play a double-round-robin. The top four advance directly to the World Cup, while the fifth place team goes to a playoff.

Despite a dustup in a match where Brazilian health officials tried to arrest Argentine players five minutes after the game started, both of South America’s top teams have already qualified. (Both are also undefeated.) The 10 teams will play again in the current international window, and then wrap up in March.

OFC

Many countries in Oceania have been the most cautious about the pandemic. Therefore, OFC qualifying hasn’t actually started yet. Of the 11 full members of the OFC, two (American Samoa and Samoa) did not enter, and Tonga withdrew after the recent volcanic disaster that hit the country. This leaves eight teams, including World Cup debutantes Cook Islands. The eight teams are divided into two groups of four. They will then play a single-round-robin and the two group winners will advance to a knockout tournament.

The tournament will take place entirely in Qatar from March 17 through March 30. The winner of tournament will then advance to a playoff against the 4th place team from CONCACAF. To put it mildly, if New Zealand is not the team that comes out of the OFC it will be one of the greatest shocks in the history of international soccer.

UEFA

The major part of European qualifying is complete. Eight groups of 5 or 6 teams competed in the first round from March through November of 2021. The group winners qualified directly for the World Cup. The group runners up, and two third place teams that won their UEFA Nations League groups (trust me, figuring out when anyone in Europe was eliminated was complicated) advanced to the second round.

The 12 second round teams were drawn into three “paths”, where each path is essentially a 4 team knockout tournament that will take place in March. The three path winners will advance to the World Cup. And let me tell you, there’s some doozies. Here’s the three paths:

Path A

  • Scotland vs. Ukraine
  • Wales vs. Austria

Path B

  • Russia vs. Poland
  • Sweden vs. Czechia

Path C

  • Italy vs. North Macedonia
  • Portugal vs. Turkey

So yeah, probably Italy vs. Portugal with the World Cup on the line. Should be fun!

With that, we’ve completed our tour of the confederations’ formats. Let’s take a look at what could happen in the current window.

On the next matchday:

AFC (Tuesday, February 1)

Group A
South Korea can clinch with with a win over Syria.
South Korea can clinch with an United Arab Emirates loss or draw to Iran.
Syria will be eliminated with a loss.
Syria will be eliminated with an United Arab Emirates win over or draw with Iran.
Iraq will be eliminated with an United Arab Emirates win over Iran and a loss to Lebanon.
Lebanon will be eliminated with an United Arab Emirates win over Iran and a loss to Iraq.

Group B
Saudi Arabia can clinch with a win over Japan and an Australia loss to Oman.
Oman will be eliminated with a loss to Australia.
China will be eliminated with an Australia win or draw over Oman.

CONCACAF (Wednesday, February 2)
Jamaica will be eliminated with a Panama win over Mexico.
Jamaica will be eliminated with a loss to Costa Rica.

CONMEBOL (Tuesday, February 1)
Ecuador can clinch with a win over Peru and an Uruguay loss to Venezuela.
Bolivia will be eliminated with a loss to Chile, a Peru win over Ecaudor, and an Uruguay win over Venezuela.
Paraguay will be eliminated with a loss to Brazil and an Uruguay win over or draw with Venezeula.
Venezuela will be eliminated with a loss to Uruguay.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

7:00:

  • Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois (ESPNU): NIU is possibly the luckiest team in FBS football this season. Of their 11 games played, they have won or lost 9 of them by 7 points or less (and often the latter). Western, by all rights, is not good enough to beat them, but even if they were, it wouldn’t matter because NIU is apparently just some sort of team of destiny this season.
  • Buffalo @ Ball State (ESPN+)

Thursday

3:30: Fresno State @ San Jose State (FS1): In the annual battle of the Central Valley vs. Silicon Valley, well, this year the Bulldogs appear to have the upper hand. Fresno has been a tough out all year, and meanwhile the Spartans haven’t quite lived up to their magical seasons from the past couple of years.

7:30: Mississippi @ Mississippi State (“Egg Bowl”; ESPN): Ole Miss should win, but this is truly a rivalry series of late where should doesn’t matter. The butterfly effect of a player pretending to pee like a dog after scoring a late touchdown in 2019 continues to reverberate around the sport of college football. Since 2012, Ole Miss is 5-4 in the series, and no team has won three in aroud over the other. You could watch some boring NFL game while trying to power through the tryptophan, or you could watch to see what happens in Starkville. I know where I’ll be.

Friday

Noon:

  • Kansas State @ Texas (FOX): I figure K-State will go ahead and put the Longhorns out of their misery. Should K-State win this game? Well, no, Texas is a lot better than them, But that hasn’t seemed to matter since sometime in the 4th quarter of Red River.
  • Boise State @ San Diego State (CBS): Since a 24-17 loss to Air Force back in mid-October, the Broncos have won four straight. That said, why in the world is this kicking off at 9:00 AM local time? I mean, I know why, but the fact of the matter is that what should be a great game of the Broncos trying to score and San Diego State’s punter singlehandedly trying to thwart those efforts will probably be a near-literal sleepwalk. In that case, I like the Aztec’s chances.
  • Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Both of these teams have beaten Western Michigan, so this is the fight for Directional Michigan Superiority. I like the Chippewas here just as the better team over the course of the season so far, plus they won comfortably against WMU while Eastern had to stage a comeback.
  • Ohio @ Bowling Green (CBSS): It’s been a long season for both of these 3-8 teams. At least the Bobcats have reeled off a couple more MAC wins, so I’ll take them.

1:00: Utah State @ New Mexico (FS1): While not as bad as their compatriots in Las Cruces, the Lobos aren’t actually good or anything. I’ll take Utah State here.

1:30: Iowa @ Nebraska (BTN): Nebraska is on track to possibly be the best 3-win team in the history of major college football over the course of a full season. My prediction is that they’ll play this tough and close, but make a few key mistakes and ultimately lose by a single score in the end. How do I know this? Because this practically how all of their games have gone this year, regardless of the opponent. I’m not sure Iowa even needs to show up, frankly.

2:00: Texas-El Paso @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Missouri @ Arkansas (“Battle Line Rivalry”; CBS): Mizzou beat Florida last weekend and got Dan Mullen fired, but that figures to be the high point of their season.
  • Cincinnati @ East Carolina (ABC): As I suspected last week, playing an opponent with a pulse was enough to wake up the slumbering beast that is the Bearcats and they drubbed SMU 48-14. ECU is 7-4 and after a couple early losses has put together a nice little season for themselves, especially considering that they’re usually one of the more, shall we say, downtrodden of the AAC teams. While they’re not as good as Houston, they should serve to have the same effect in terms of getting Cincy’s blood up.
  • South Florida @ Central Florida (“War on I-4”; ESPN): This is a rivalry with some beef. Unfortunately, except for that glorious 2017 contest these two teams have mostly never been on the same wavelength, and as of late UCF seems to have left USF behind. While the first season on the Gus-bus has been a bit uneven for the Knights, they shouldn’t really have any trouble here.
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ Air Force (CBSS): UNLV has won two games this year, which is probably a prop bet a lot of people lost (as it’s more than ‘0’ or ‘1’). So while this season’s probably exceeded expectations for the Rebels, it’ll likely stop at 2 to this wrecking ball of an Air Force team.
  • Costal Carolina @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

4:00: Colorado @ Utah (“Rumble in the Rockies”; FOX): It’ll be a rumble, all right – the rumble of Utah’s players blocking, tackling, and ramblin’ past Colorado’s.

4:30: Texas Christian @ Iowa State (FS1): As I mentioned in my bowl post, I suspect there won’t be enough bowl eligible teams. TCU is 5-6 and, well, I can’t see how this team beats even what’s been a bit of a down year for the Cyclones.

7:00: North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ESPN): I think almost everyone, except maybe Mack Brown, agrees that this isn’t the kind of season the Tar Heels expected to have. Meanwhile, NC State continues to do NC State things: win most of their games and look competent doing it. I suspect they’ll do the same in this rivalry game.

8:00: Washington State @ Washington (“Apple Cup”; FS1): This is a particularly weird edition of the Apple Cup, and y’all that’s really saying something. Both teams will be rolling in with interim head coaches after Jimmy Lake was dismissed a couple weeks ago, and of course Wazzu’s head man has been gone for a while. But a funny thing happened for the Cougs while they’ve been searching for a new coach: they’ve mostly won. Since losing to Utah, they’ve won 5 out of 7, which the losses coming to a pretty good BYU team this year and the other to Oregon. For the Dubs, it’s just been a spiral: a 26-16 loss to Oregon that wasn’t really that close, a 5 point loss to Arizona State (where hey, they scored 30 for the only time this season), and then a 3 point loss last week to a… not good Colorado team. But nonetheless this game is in Seattle, and it’ll be cold and drizzly. Who knows what will happen? (I’ll still take the Cougs, though.)