Category Archives: college football

Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Epilogue

And here’s the promised wrap-up.

First, the shaming. There are four teams that play two FCS teams this year: Texas A&M, Florida State, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. The latter two at least have a good excuse, as they need to fill out a five game non-conference schedule.

Due to our revised method of rating the “legit”-ness of teams, there are more zeros this year than in years past. Therefore, I’m only going to rank the top four worst schedules, which are somewhat arbitrarily decided.

  1. Dishonorable mention: the bottom four teams in the Pac-12: Utah, Washington State, Colorado, and Oregon. Especially the latter two, and really especially Oregon. I guess they thought they needed a breather from playing other major teams.
  2. Mississippi State (0, 1.5): Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee State. I don’t really include the Kansases and Indianas of the world on lists like this because hey, they’re awful, it’s okay to not load up your schedule. But Miss State isn’t really awful, so there’s less of an excuse. I suspect they probably go with something along the lines of the “toughest division in college football” or some such.
  3. Texas Tech (0, 1.5): Northwestern State, @Texas State, New Mexico. There’s nothing approaching a good team on this schedule, and there’s an inexplicable road game to a school that isn’t a full FBS member yet.
  4. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (0, 2): N-Louisiana Tech, @Southern Methodist, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State. There’s nothing here that really justifies playing two FCS teams. Sure the game at SMU could be a challenge but I have my doubts

The top schedules list isn’t terribly inspiring this year, and there’s certainly no equivalent of last year, where LSU played both Oregon and West Virginia. The below are probably the top four non-conference schedules in the land.

  1. Miami (1.75 legit/0.4375 average, 1 FCS): @Kansas State, Bethune-Cookman, Notre Dame, South Florida. Three “major” teams, and a road game. Not bad.
  2. Clemson (1.75/0.4375, 1): N-Auburn, Ball State, Furman, South Carolina. Tigers-Tigers should be an interesting game, which is the main thing that keeps this above Miami because I ordinarily discount rivalry games for this purpose.
  3. Michigan (1.75/0.4375, 0.5): N-Alabama, Air Force, Massachusetts, @Notre Dame. Michigan-Alabama is one of the premiere matchups of the year, even if almost everyone thinks Michigan will lose.
  4. Syracuse (2.25/0.45, 1): Northwestern, N-Southern California, Stony Brook, @Minnesota, @Missouri. Quantity over quality for this one perhaps, though there is the game against USC. Even taking the average into account, the ‘Cuse still comes out on top. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for their chances in most of these games.

While I’m at it, here’s a quick list of teams that play only full-on FBS teams this year: Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, and Nebraska.

And, finally, the ranking of conferences by their members’ “legit” average.

  1. ACC (0.276)
  2. Pac-12 (0.2153)
  3. Big East (0.2125)
  4. SEC (0.172)
  5. Big Ten (0.1354)
  6. Big 12 (0.1)

 A-C-C! A-C-C! I suppose.

Anyway, real, actual football talk will be coming, and not a moment too soon. Until then!

      Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: SEC

      First, a quick note: one of my favorite college football blogs, Sunday Morning Quarterback, is back. I’ve been following Matt Hinton’s other efforts since he retired from doing SMQ four years ago, but none of them are quite the same as the more long-form, statistically-inclined writing he produced for his original blog.

      So anyway, we’ll wrap up our tour of this year’s non-conference schedules with the SEC.

      1. Alabama (1 legit, 1 FCS): N-Michigan, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina. Alabama-Michigan is one of the most intriguing games of this season, though it’s hard to see how Michigan will win unless Denard Robinson is just utterly beguiling to Alabama’s uber-disciplined defense.
      2. Mississippi (1, 1): Central Arkansas, Texas-El Paso, Texas, @Tulane. Ole Miss gets two teams from Texas in town. Will they be good enough to beat either?
      3. Florida (1, 1): Bowling Green, Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, @Florida State. Not much to look at here other than the obligatory FSU game, which is why this is #3 on this list.
      4. Auburn (0.75, 1): N-Clemson, Louisana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical. Tigers-Tigers is back once again. I was hoping Auburn also played Mizzou, but they’ll be the other other Tigers in the SEC schedule this year. Also, I find it a bit odd that Auburn would actually play Alabama A&M, but A&M’s probably just that bad that they’re not as worried as they would be about playing, say, the Troys or UABs of the world.
      5. South Carolina (0.75, 1): East Carolina, Alabama-Birmingham, Wofford, @Clemson. Unfortunately, I had to break this tie backed on the strength of obligatory rivalry games. Us Tech fans tend to be a self-deprecating bunch, though, so it wasn’t really that hard of a decision. Also, that makes UGA look worse, which is also always a good thing.
      6. Georgia (0.75, 1): Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech. Suspicious Tech fans would probably that UGA is playing Georgia Southern, who run pretty much the same offense as us, as preparation for the game against us. To which I’d say, you’re probably over-thinking it.
      7. Vanderbilt (0.75, 1.5): @Northwestern, Presbyterian, Massachusetts, @Wake Forest. Next year, this schedule would let Vandy get up to the 4th spot because they’re playing two major conference teams (even if they are Northwestern and Wake Forest), but alas, UMass is still provisional.
      8. Louisiana State (0.5, 1): North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson. Well, there is that game against UDub. Honestly, the game I’m looking to most this year for LSU is the Arkansas game. Les Miles versus John L. Smith, a matchup of two of the probably craziest coaches in major college football.
      9. Missouri (0.5, 1): Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona State, @Central Florida, Syracuse. Now that the Mizzou-Illinois series is over, Mizzou’s schedule is just that much more boring. How did it not work out for them to play Kansas again?
      10. Tennessee (0.5, 1): N-North Carolina State, Georgia State, Akron, Troy. If the Tennessee-NC State game were scheduled for, let’s say, Octoboer, then I’m not sure anyone would care outside of their respective fanbases. But hey, have it to help kick off the season? Now we’re talking.
      11. Kentucky (0.5, 1): @Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford. Not much to see here. Obligatory rivalry game, a MAC team, another in-state team that it would be really funny if they lost to, and an FCS team. Again, not much to see here.
      12. Arkansas (0.25, 1): Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rutgers, Tulsa. Well, I already used my Arkansas-LSU thing for LSU, so I have to figure out an alternate strategy to use here. Maybe complain about how last year this would be the last blurb I’d have to write? No, not quite true yet. Maybe point out that the UL-Monroe game will be at Arkansas’s home-away-from-home, War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock? Maybe look up to see if the Rutgers game has a return leg? Let’s go with that, because yes it does: the Razorbacks will make the return trip to scenic Piscataway, New Jersey. Well, I’m guessing it’s scenic because the Wikipedia article only has a picture of dudes grilling Greek food on it and not any pictures of the town.
      13. Mississippi State (0, 1.5): Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee State. Watch out, Miss State: the last major conference team to visit Troy was Oklahoma State in 2007. They lost 41-23. Other than that, not much here to worry about for the bulldogs.
      14. Texas Agricultural and Mechanical (0, 2): N-Louisiana Tech, @Southern Methodist, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State. I’m not sure if the LaTech game is a neutral game site game or not, as it could just be a home game that’s being played in Shreveport instead of Ruston. Either way, A&M probably is probably as worried about this schedule as I am excited about it, which is to say, not very worried at all.

      That’s that! Soon, a hastily put together wrap-up of it all, and then hopefully the opening weekend TV guide in time for the kickoffs Thursday.

        Rating the 2012 Non-Conferece Slate: Pac-12

        The Pac-12 has slightly less variety in scheduling than it has in years past, unfortunately.

        1. Southern California (1 legit, 0 FCS): Hawaii, N-Syracuse, Notre Dame. One of the main reasons to like USC’s chances at a title run is a soft, for them, non-conference schedule. They can reasonably expect to go 3-0 against this bunch. The Syracuse game is at the New Meadowlands (or whatever they’re calling it), by the way.
        2. California-Los Angeles (1, 0): @Rice, Nebraska, Houston. An away game at Rice? Well, Rice Stadium is one of the more historic venues on college football (as covered here), but old stadiums are hardly intimidating for UCLA (well, or any of Rice’s opponents, but work with me here). Nebraska will likely pose a much larger challenge for the Bruins.
        3. Arizona State (1, 1): Northern Arizona, Illinois, @Missouri. Illinois and Missouri aren’t playing each other this year, but thanks to Arizona State, there’ll only be one degree of separation. Also we get the relatively rare bird of a Pac-12 vs. SEC matchup.
        4. Washington (1, 1): San Diego State, @Louisiana State, Portland State. Good luck down in the bayou, Huskies, because you will probably need it.
        5. Arizona (1, 1): Toledo, Oklahoma State, South Carolina State. After years of pathetically weak scheduling, good on Arizona for actually getting a name opponent.
        6. California (1, 1): Nevada, Southern Utah, @Ohio State. Cal’s always done a reasonably job of making eastward journeys, with trips to Tennessee and Minnesota in the past decade. Good to see they’re continuing to do so, even if the Columbus stands to be somewhat more daunting than either opponent.
        7. Oregon State (1, 1): Nicholls State, Wisconsin, @Brigham Young. Wisconsin is certainly an interesting choice, especially considering their usual tendencies to stick to traditional Big Ten offense, in contract with the Beavers’ more wide-open style. Of course, it would help if Oregon State were to actually be good again.
        8. Stanford (0.75, 0): San Jose State, Duke, @Notre Dame. Stanford plays Notre Dame ever year, so not a whole lot to get excited about. Though I wonder what the chances are of more Duke fans than there were Wake Forest fans when I went to a game there a few years ago.
        9. Utah (0, 1): Northern Colorado, @Utah State, Brigham Young. Savor Utah-BYU for the last time in a while.
        10. Washington State (0, 1): @Brigham Young, Eastern Washington, @Nevada-Las Vegas. I’m sure Mike Leach has already asked how Wazzou ended up in a position to have two road games against mid-majors. Also considering Texas Tech’s schedules during his reign there, don’t expect them to improve much in this department.
        11. Colorado (0, 1): N-Colorado State, Sacramento State, Fresno State. Playing Fresno isn’t what it used to be, though I do like that Colorado is continuing to play their rival, even as other rivalry games have disappeared due to realignment.
        12. Oregon (0, 1): Arkansas State, Fresno State, Tennessee Tech. While Oregon will almost certainly beat Arkansas State, I’m pretty sure Gus Malzhan will still figure out a way to score a few touchdowns. 

        Anyway, next up is the SEC, and then a quick wrap up. Until then!

          Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Big 12

          And now the place where non-conference scheduling goes to die, the Big 12.

          1. Oklahoma (0.75 legit, 1 FCS): @Texas El-Paso, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical, Notre Dame. To be fair, though, Oklahoma has scheduled some legitimate opponents over the past decade. Perhaps this year is just a well-deserved break? Or perhaps a sign of things to come with a 9-game conference schedule?
          2. Iowa State (0.75, 1): Tulsa, @Iowa, Western Illinois. It’s always amusing when Iowa State beats Iowa. Especially since now we’ll get the inevitable post-game video with the very, um, enthusiastic Paul Rhodes.
          3. Kansas State (0.5, 1): Missouri State, Miami, North Texas. Playing “da U” just isn’t what it used to be. Nonetheless, this is a tough slate by Bill Synder standards.
          4. Texas Christian (0.5, 1): Grambling State, Virginia, @Southern Methodist. There’s no equivalent of Baylor circa last year on this list, but that’s okay for the Horned Frogs for their first year in a major conference since the dissolution of the Southwest Conference. I guess the game at cross-town rival SMU is for told time’s sake?
          5. Texas (0.25, 0): Wyoming, New Mexico, @Mississippi. Texas also usually schedules well. This year is not usually, it seems. Nonetheless, the game in Oxford does provide some intrigue.
          6. Oklahoma State (0.25, 1): Savannah State, @Arizona, Louisiana-Lafayette. I don’t really have any great insights, rhetorical questions, or other observations about this slate.
          7. West Virginia (0, 1): Marshall, N-James Madison, Maryland. West Virginia stays local in what I can guess is an attempt to make up for the travel they’re going to have to do otherwise. Also, neutral site games with FCS schools? That’s a new one. Also: how many points will WVU score on a Maryland team that can optimistically be described as “moribund”? My guess: a lot.
          8. Baylor (0, 1): Southern Methodist, Sam Houston State, @Louisiana-Monroe. If I’m counting Texas full-FBS schools correctly, the only Texas schools Baylor won’t play this year are Houston and Rice. Oh, and North Texas. And UTEP. Okay, well, let’s limit it to just former members of the SWC then. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
          9. Kansas (0, 1): South Dakota State, Rice, @Northern Illinois. Speaking of Rice, well, Kansas will be doing to win two of these games.
          10. Texas Tech (0, 1.5): Northwestern State, @Texas State, New Mexico. And Texas Tech is again a front runner to awful scheduling, barely getting off the hook because Texas State is transitional. Then again, they scheduled a game at San Marcos. Though even by Texas standards I guess San Marcos qualifies as being less in the middle-of-nowhere than Lubbock does.

          Next up, we follow the advice of Horace Greely and go even further west. Stay tuned!

            Rating the 2012 Non-Conference Slate: Big Ten

            Time for everyone’s favorite mathematically challenged conference, the Big Ten.

            1. Michigan (1.75 legit, 0.5 FCS): N-Alabama, Air Force, Massachusetts, @Notre Dame. One of the most intriguing inter-section games of the year has to be Michigan-Alabama. Also, by the time this is over I will probably actually finally know how to spell “Massachusetts”.
            2. Michigan State (1.25, 0): Boise State, @Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan. The game against Boise is interesting for sure. The road game against CMU is interesting as well, but it’s a shame they’re terrible again.
            3. Purdue (0.75, 1): Eastern Kentucky, @Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, Marshall. Too bad they couldn’t play East Carolina instead of Marshall, because they had a pretty good theme going there.
            4. Ohio State (0.5, 0): Miami, Central Florida, California, Alabama-Birmingham. This Miami is the one in Ohio. Other than that, the only thing going here is the game against Cal, but nonetheless Urban Meyer’s new crew will only have to leave Columbus 4 times this year.
            5. Pennsylvania State (0.5, 0): Ohio, @Virginia, Navy, Temple. I think it’s pretty safe to say they have bigger issues up on State College than their out-of-conference scheduling right now.
            6. Nebraska (0.5, 0): Southern Mississippi, @California-Los Angeles, Arkansas State, Idaho State. In a different era, the game at the Rose Bowl would be more interesting, but alas.
            7. Northwestern (0.5, 1): @Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota. In years past, this would’ve been good for a solid 0.75, but well, Boston College needs to stop being terrible.
            8. Illinois (0.25, 1): Western Michigan, @Arizona State, Charleston Southern, Louisiana Tech. I liked the yearly series against Mizzou, but I guess that’s over and done with now.
            9. Wisconsin (0.25, 1): Northern Iowa, @Oregon State, Utah State, Texas-El Paso. I’m having a hard time figuring out anything to write about this. Wisconsin should pretty much steamroll this bunch, right?
            10. Minnesota (0.25, 1): @Nevada-Las Vegas, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, Syracuse. It’s hard to really accuse bad teams of having bad schedules, especially when it’s still entirely possible they’ll lose one of these games.
            11. Iowa (0, 1): N-Northern Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Central Michigan. Whereas it’s a lot easier to criticize the Iowas of the world for this sort of thing. There’s a cash-grab and road-trip-to-Decatur avoiding “neutral” site game with NIU and their two in-state rivals. Oh boy. Look for this one again in the epilogue.
            12. Indiana (0, 1.5): Indiana State, @Massachusetts, Ball State, @Navy. Did you know: UMass will play their home games at Gillette Stadium as they transition to FBS? Well, this is their marquee home game for the season. I still like Indiana’s chances, though, despite them being Indiana.

            That’s that. Next up, the saddest group of schedules in the land: the Big 12.