Category Archives: college football

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 2

They’re late but they’re up. I’m three teams short again, huzzah!

Just in case, I looked up the top 5 in the most recent APR scores in case I need some 5-7 teams. Problem is, it has to be one of the top five in the APR, and no in that group is looking likely to finish 5-7. (Indeed, they’ll all probably finish with much better records.) Again, there is no need to panic just yet, because as upsets happen things will shake out. That said, also for that reason I’m not comfortable doing a full analysis just yet. Look for that after Week 10 of the season, I’d say.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Clemson @ Miami (ABC): Miami probably isn’t as bad as most people think. Will that be good enough to pull the (according to Vegas, minor) upset over the Tigers? I also suspect that with a noon kick in Miami it’ll probably be mostly Clemson fans, as well. I additionally suspect that Clemson will continue hurtling toward their clash against Florida State in two weeks.
  • Iowa State @ Baylor (ESPN): Well, TCU did struggle in the first half before… okay yeah, I can’t do it.
  • Northwestern @ Nebraska (ESPN2): So it turns out that Northwestern’s offense is still kind of terrible, but I confess to not know what happened to the defense. Sure, giving up 38 to Michigan kinda-sorta makes sense, but 40 to Iowa? Where did that come from? I don’t feel comfortable about it, but I’m going with Nebraska here.
  • Kansas State @ Texas (FS1): Bill Synder has, thus far, been unable to pull off another trick, but as the Big 12’s resident wizard, there could still be some magic left. Also, it fits in with the way things have been going for Texas this year.
  • Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (ESPNU): Syracuse is terrible, Pitt should roll.
  • Houston @ Central Florida (ESPNEWS): And speaking of rolling… goodness me this could get bad. Real bad.
  • Auburn @ Arkansas (SEC): Auburn could well lose this game, but I find it difficult to pick Arkansas nonetheless.
  • North Carolina State @ Wake Forest (ACC/RSN): NC State is probably less awful than Wake? It’s close, though.

12:30: Boston College @ Louisville (ACC):
Dear Boston College Eagles,
    You lost a game to Wake Forest 3-0. I cannot, in good conscience, pick you in any of your remaining contests.

Sincerely,
ASimPerson

1:00: Tulane @ Navy (CBSS): While Tulane does have the advantage of having already played a team with a substantially similar offense so far this season, the 55 point margin does not bode well for their chances.

3:30:

  • Tennessee @ Alabama (CBS): There’s not a lot of suggest that the Vols, revamped as they may be, are ready for this.
  • Indiana @ Michigan State (ABC/ESPN2): A week after the best/worst play in the history of college football, Sparty gets to play a team that just gave up 55 points to Rutgers. Yeah, I don’t think they’re going to need any botched punts in this one.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2): The Sooners vented their frustrations onto K-State last week, pitching a 55-0 shutout. (This is the third time in this post 55 has shown up, what gives? Too bad this isn’t a sport where I could drop 88 a lot.) That said, the Red Raiders can score some points of their own, and there’s little to suggest so far that Oklahoma are as good as TCU or Baylor. I think it’ll be close, but the Sooners will escape.
  • Pennsylvania State vs. Maryland (@Baltimore, MD; ESPN): I don’t get the idea that Randy Edsall had beat Ohio State it would’ve saved his job. I mean, really? It’s not like beating Ohio State after losing 45-6 to WVU and 28-0 to Michigan magically shows that everything is A-OK and that the program isn’t a dumpster fire anymore. The situation in College Park seems to bad from the outside that I most agree with EDSBS’s assessment that Maryland was doing Edsall a favor by firing him.
  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Yeah, this week is a bit short on interesting matchups, why do you ask? Cowboys roll.
  • Duke @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): It still feels weird to type this, but: Duke should win this one.
  • Wisconsin @ Illinois (BTN): While there’s still plenty of time for the Illini to finish 4-8, they still have to be the most surprising team this year, right? I don’t think they’ll beat the Badgers, but still.
  • Virginia @ North Carolina (ACC/RSN): I guess the nicest thing you can say about our performance against the Tar Heels is that we’re one of only two teams that scored more than 14 against them so far this season? Seriously, in their four wins they’ve held all their opponents to exactly 14 points. Bizarre. That said, it’s likely that UVA will score somewhere around that amount, while Carolina score more than enough.

4:00:

  • Southern Methodist @ South Florida (ESPNEWS): It sounds odd to say this about a 3-3 team, but USF is clearly better than SMU.
  • Missouri @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Two terrible offenses and at least one strong defense. I’m predicting Mizzou 12, Vandy 6.
  • Washington State @ Arizona (Pac12): Don’t look, but Wazzou is on a nice little run right now. Is it enough to beat Arizona? Probably not.

4:30: Connecticut @ Cincinnati (CBSS): Cincy isn’t great or anything, but UConn is terrible.

7:00:

  • Texas A&M @ Mississippi (ESPN): I’m still not buying what TAMU is selling. Going with Ole Miss here.
  • Florida State @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): I may have audibly exhaled before starting on this bit. What else is there to say about this season? Last week, I already talked about the injury and experience situation. I’m not sure what else to say at this point.
  • Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (ESPNU): This is how dire Week 8 is: these teams have the best combined record of any matchup this week. LSU is still going to win, but I’m hoping WKU makes then earn it.

7:30:

  • Utah @ Southern California (FOX): Meanwhile, I am buying what the Utes are selling. I currently don’t have them losing again.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (SEC): Both these teams only have two losses, but that’s about where the similarities end. The Bulldogs should roll.

8:00: Ohio State @ Rutgers (ABC): Speaking of rolling, with a settled starter at QB, will the Buckeye offense get back on track? Considering they just gave up 52 to Indiana, against Rutgers it was probably a good bet either way.

10:15: Wyoming @ Boise State (ESPN2): Boise got beat bad by Utah State last week, which is to say, I would not want to Wyoming right now.

10:30:

  • Washington @ Stanford (ESPN): Losing by 6 to this year’s edition to Oregon is not quite as meaningful as it was in the recent past. Meanwhile, Stanford figures to continue their quest to be the college football equivalent of a steamroller.
  • Colorado @ Oregon State (Pac12): I’d say the odds are looking pretty good for the Beavers to pick up their first Pac-12 win of the season.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 1

It’s that time once again. In the interest of not burying the lead, here’s a direct link to the first edition of the 2015 bowl predictions.

Again, the process is the same that I’ve been using in the past few years, though without the BCS part. The key thing to realize is that I go through every team, look at their remaining schedule, and then try to figure out how many more games they will win. This early, this tends to not be a very exact science, as since this is college football we’re talking about, wacky upsets happen.

This time around, for the time in a long time (if ever), I’m actually short three teams. Of course, we have 80 possible bids this year, so the fact I’m predicting 77 of the sport’s 127 teams at this level will have .500 records or better is still pretty astounding. This is where the previous paragraph comes in: since upsets will happen and some teams will improve while others get worse, you’ll have a team that really closes out the year and rallies to a 8-4 record while another might slump to 7-5 after starting 5-2. It’s hard to call these things, sometimes. Nonetheless, I probably do need to see which teams would be eligible at 5-7, if it comes to that.

In previous years, I released the picks this week because this is usually when the first BCS standings came out. Without the BCS I’m now trying to guess what a group of thirteen people will vote on in a conference room in Dallas in a couple of weeks. To give an idea of what I mean by my not predicting a lot of upsets, though, the teams in the playoffs and the committee-controlled bowls all have two losses or less by my current predictions, which will probably not wind up being the case by the time December rolls around.

So, to reiterate: it’s early. If I have your team in the Boca Raton Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl, don’t panic. I’m probably wrong.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • West Virginia @ Baylor (FOX): There’s a lot of action in every timeslot today, and this is merely the start. I expect some early fireworks but eventually for Baylor to prevail.
  • Mississippi @ Memphis (ABC/ESPN2): This is almost certainly the biggest regular season game hosted at the Liberty Bowl in a long time. That said, if this game had happened in early September instead of mid-October, Memphis would probably not be undefeated right now. If they somehow do pull off the upset, the Tigers will become the favorites for that Group of Five bid.
  • Iowa @ Northwestern (ABC/ESPN2): This looks all the world like it’s going to be a classic Big Ten defensive slugfest, which means the final score will probably wind up being like 52-48. Given that, I favor the Wildcats.
  • Louisville @ Florida State (ESPN): I was one of many who figured Louisville would be important players in the ACC this year, but, well, that’s the ACC for you.
  • Texas Tech @ Kansas (FS1): Kansas has failed to prevent any of their opponent except for Rutgers from scoring more than 30 points. Texas Tech has not scored less than 30 points this season. Yeah.
  • South Florida @ Connecticut (ESPNU): I cannot conceive of any reason to watch this game. I guess USF will win?
  • Tulane @ East Carolina (ESPNEWS): ECU is the better team here, but it’s hard to tell at this point. It should become more clear as they get into their AAC schedule.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State (SEC): I’m pretty sure Miss State is going to win, but nonetheless, the Bulldogs from the Bayou can score some points. Could be closer than it appears.
  • Purdue @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin.

12:30: Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (ACC): While no football team is truly perfect, the list of things Tech is doing badly vastly outstrips the things they are doing well at this point. While losing to Clemson was the expected outcome, that was bad. I think I summed it up best last weekend after the game. (Last weekend was horrible for me sports-wise.) From last year, we retained none of our starting skill position players other than our (excellent) quarterback. Then all their replacements got hurt. Yeah. The reality of not being of college football’s elites is that your two-deep is not full of guys who would “start anywhere else”.

3:30:

  • Oklahoma @ Kansas State (ABC): If nothing else, this post will move the post down on the front page of this site that predicted Oklahoma would beat Texas, though I did at least allow for “wacky shenanigans”. At any rate, despite starting their 12th-string quarterback or some such, K-State only lost by a touchdown to TCU last weekend. Can Bill Synder’s wizardy beat the Sooners? Sure, why not?
  • Alabama @ Texas A&M (CBS): Stickin’ with the Tide, here.
  • Michigan State @ Michigan (ESPN): I think we all figured it would happen, but it just didn’t figure out happen so quickly. What’s it, you ask? The rejuvenation of Michigan, of course. That said, the shutout streak is impressive, but Sparty has the most competent offense the Wolverines have seen since Week 1 against Utah. (Pretty safe to say that was a good loss, at this point.) It all just seems too big, too fast, though. I’m going with Michigan State.
  • Nebraska @ Minnesota (ESPN2): Nebraska just looks hapless right now. Going with the Gophers to retain the first college football trophy created by the Internet.
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami (ESPNU): While both these teams are struggling on offense, Miami is struggling less.
  • Air Force @ Colorado State (CBSS): Air Force has more wins, but neither of these teams looks especially good to me. I guess I’ll go with the Falcons.
  • Rutgers @ Indiana (BTN): The Hoosiers followed up their almost-upset of Ohio State with a 29-7 thud against Penn State. Rutgers is a pretty good way to get back on track, though.
  • Syracuse @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): Maybe if we all stop making jokes about Mike London’s job status UVA will actually finally get rid of him? That or losing big to Syracuse, probably.

4:00:

  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (SEC): … I may have to add more Spurrier quotes to the bottom of the page. Gamecocks should roll.
  • Oregon State @ Washington State (Pac12): Sound the alert, we’re in a reality where frickin’ Washington State is now beating Oregon. I’m pretty sure that actually means Oregon State will win, but I can’t bring myself to actually pick them.

7:00

  • Florida @ Louisiana State (ESPN): Hey Gators, welcome back to relevance! In return, here’s your weird, meaningless, cross-division “rivalry” game. This will be, by far, the stiffest test for either of these teams so far this season. Florida looks like the better team to me, but their starting quarterback is suspended, and LSU does have the best running back in college football. And hey, it’s at night:
    Miles on the 6 p.m. kickoff with the #Gators: “It’ll be dusk. The opportunity for night to arrive.” #LSU

    — Ross Dellenger (@DellengerAdv) October 12, 2015

    Yes, yes it is Les. And given these facts, I’m going with LSU.

  • Texas Christian @ Iowa State (ESPN2): Oof. Iowa State isn’t awful this year, but… yeah.
  • Boston College @ Clemson (ESPNU): I fully expect Clemson to follow up last week’s complete domination of us with a flop against BC. They’ll still win, though.
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ACC/RSN): Wake Forest beat Boston College 3-0 last week. Enough said.

7:30

  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): The circumstances for the Trojans look pretty bad right, and I’m not sure there’s a happy ending in sight right now.
  • Missouri @ Georgia (SEC): While Georgia losing to Tennessee was about the best thing that happened last weekend, they figure to get back on track against an awful Mizzou squad.
  • Central Florida @ Temple (CBSS):UCF may well be historically awful. We could be watching something special here.

8:00: Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC): Don’t look, but after losing to Temple the Nittany Lions have gone 5-0! Of course, either Temple or Indiana is the best team they’ve played this year, but still. Ohio State got some of their mojo back against Maryland last weekend; that trend figures to continue.

9:00: Arizona @ Colorado (FS1): Arizona isn’t good, but Colorado is worse.

10:00: Arizona State @ Utah (ESPN): I think the Utes are legit, but we’re about to find out just how legitimate they are.

10:30:

  • Oregon @ Washington (ESPN2): That’s it, I’m picking against Oregon. I can’t even remember the last time that happened, but current circumstances leave me with no choice.
  • San Diego State @ San Jose State (ESPNU): Two 3-3 Mountain West division rivals…. hrm. San Jose State looks a tad better, so let’s just go with that and get some sleep.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 6

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (@Dallas, TX; ABC): Well, things are looking really, really bad for Texas at this point, but I guess if it’s some consolation it’s not unknown for this game to feature wacky shenanigans. The thing about that, though, is that you can’t exactly bet on that.
  • Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (ESPN): Though part of the reason that Indiana almost pulled off a stunning upset of the Buckeyes last weekend has to due with Ohio State’s issues on offense, they still appear to be a more solid team than Penn State.
  • Baylor @ Kansas (FS1): Kansas lost to Memphis 55-23. Uh-oh.
  • Illinois @ Iowa (ESPN2): Illinois fired their coach a week before the season started. Iowa has been stagnant under Kirk Ferentz’s unassailable contract for the past several seasons. Naturally, these teams are a combined 9-1. That said, Illinois still got blown out by UNC and they squeaked by Nebraska last weekend, which gives me more confidence in Iowa.
  • Tulane @ Temple (ESNPU): It feels odd to predict Temple dominating, nay, blowing someone out, but here we are.
  • New Mexico State @ Mississippi (SEC): Dear Aggies: Get money, get paid, y’all.
  • Duke @ Army (CBSS): This one doesn’t look good for the Black Knights.
  • Maryland @ Ohio State (BTN): So as it turns out, maybe having two quarterbacks is worse than having none? Ohio State is currently one of the least efficient offenses in the country, a fact which definitely contributed to their near-upset at Indiana. That said, the Terps offer a wonderful chance for them to get things back on track.

12:30: Virginia @ Pittsburgh (ACC): UVA was last seem getting beaten 56-14 by Boise State two weeks ago, so I’m going to go with Pitt.

3:00: Wake Forest @ Boston College (ACC/RSN): BC put up some good numbers early in the season, but against anyone with a pulse on defense they have completely faltered. I’m going with Wake here.

3:30:

  • Georgia @ Tennessee (CBS): Tennessee can’t keep finding excruciating ways to lose, can they? And not to get too Bill Simmons on you, but UGA had a stomach-punch game of their own last weekend, mostly in the sense that soon after the second half started they were pretty much out of it, and wrecking their shot a national title. I think Georgia’s going to win, but I’m sure 38-10 sounds relative pleasurable to Vols fans right now.
  • Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): While this looks good a good edition of Navy, it’s hard to see Notre Dame losing here.
  • Georgia Tech @ Clemson (ABC/ESPN2): So, yeah, as it turns out, having to replace all your skill position players (other than the QB) is kind of a problem? (In fairness, injuries have not helped at all.) As I said going into the season, I was generally weary of all the preseason hype and expectations, and this weariness has been borne out in the worst possible way. The rest of the schedule is brutal, starting here. It’ll be… interesting to see how this team responds to the now significantly lower expectations.
  • Wisconsin @ Nebraska (ESPN2/ABC): Most of the Internet college football types were somewhat, I wouldn’t say surprised by the Pellini firing, but I’d say it wasn’t exactly a lauded move. This was especially true after Nebraska poached Mike Reilly, who isn’t a bad coach or anything, but it just seemed like a lateral move, except that Reilly probably swears a lot less. While Wisconsin is having a bit of a crisis of their own (realize that these are the two teams that just lose to Iowa and Illinois), the Badgers still figure to have the upper hand here.
  • Louisiana State @ South Carolina (@Baton Rouge, LA; ESPN): I applaud LSU’s classiness and general level of support of South Carolina due to the floods in South Carolina, given that a truly neutral venue was unable to be found in time. I’d still expect LSU to win here, though.
  • Minnesota @ Purdue (ESPNU): The Gophers are solid, but their offense is “somewhat” lacking. But, hey, if there’s a team they can score some points against…
  • Syracuse @ South Florida (CBSS): USF is pretty awful, so the ‘Cuse should figure to take this one.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (BTN): I’m sure the Big Ten is somewhat regretting a few things involving their TV rights at the moment, or at least I am because I don’t get the Big Ten Network in HD. That said, both these teams feature solid offenses and really stingy defenses. I’m not well versed in Big Ten lore, but I would hazard a guess that this is the biggest Northwestern-Michigan game ever. I’m giving a slight edge to Michigan, but on my pick ’em I have Northwestern covering the 7.5.

3:45: Connecticut @ Central Florida (ESPNEWS): UCF is really, really, incredibly bad. I don’t know if I’d be shocked if they won this game, but I’d be at least vaguely surprised.

4:00:

  • Oregon State @ Arizona (FS1): One of these two loss teams is slightly better than the other, and it’s a fair guess that team (Arizona, by the way) will be trying very, very hard to get a win after losing 111-47 to UCLA and Stanford.
  • Troy @ Mississippi State (SEC): Troy is vaguely better than New Mexico State, so I guess there’s some slight increase in dignity for the Bulldogs compared to their rivals?

6:00: Washington State @ Oregon (Pac12): Like I said last week, Oregon isn’t terrible or anything, they’re just not great anymore. What would really be a shock, though, is if they bungle things against Wazzou.

7:00:

  • Arkansas @ Alabama (ESPN): Okay, Razorbacks, you finally got a win, but you got one against the most self-destructive team in the country. If there’s anything even this slightly diminished edition of Alabama doesn’t do, though, it’s beat themselves.
  • Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (ESPN2): Oklahoma State gets a chance to prove they’re actually kind of a decent. It’s a late game in Morgantown, so we know how that can go, but for now, I’m sticking with the Cowboys.
  • Boise State @ Colorado State (CBSS): Boise looks like they’re back, y’all.

7:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (FOX): So one of my cousins is playing for K-State, maybe they’ll let him play quarterback? Otherwise, if there’s anyone who has the wizardy to win with offensive linemen lining up behind the offensive line, it’s Bill Synder, but… yeah, things look kind of grim here.
  • East Carolina @ Brigham Young (ESPNU): This would be easier if either of these teams was more like what I initially thought before looking them up, but alas. It looks like both these teams are solid with some tough losses. With it being in Utah, though, I’m giving the edge to BYU.
  • Florida @ Missouri (SEC): Is Florida back? It’s not like they were gone for very long, though. That said, while this 5-0 vs. 4-1, that 4-1 is somewhat deceiving, considering whom Mizzou has beat and their eight point loss to Kentucky. I’m going with the Gators here. (By the way, while we’re here, this past Tuesday was the 25th anniversary of the Fifth Down game.)

8:00:

  • Miami @ Florida State (ABC): I guess there’s some unrest vis-a-vis Al Golden down in Miami? I don’t think he’s doing that bad, but they’re probably going to lose this game, which will almost certainly be very bad for his continued job security.
  • Michigan State @ Rutgers (BTN): I’m currently operating under the assumption that Sparty’s narrow, three point win over Purdue was a bit of a fluke and they’ll have a much easier time with the Scarlet Knights.

10:00:

  • California @ Utah (ESPN): As it turns out, this is the Utes’s first game since their 62-20 drubbing of Oregon two weeks ago. Cal, in the meantime, eked out some narrow wins over Washington and Wazzou, which while exciting do not inspire confidence against the Utes. This is the game of the day, though, and I’d recommend finding a way to watch it, provided you’re not watching USA-Mexico like I’m going to be.
  • Colorado @ Arizona State (Pac12): Getting blown out by USC and then soundly beating UCLA isn’t exactly a recommended way to be a contender, but hey, whatever works. The Sun Devils shouldn’t have much trouble with the Buffs, either way.

10:15: Wyoming @ Air Force (ESPN2): The Falcons aren’t good, but fortunately for them, Wyoming is very, very bad.

10:30: Utah State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Through four games, Utah State has managed to score only 76 points. Through five games, Fresno State has scored 109 points. So that’s pretty similar. The difference? Utah State has only given up 82 points. Fresno, 201 points. Yeah, uh, giving up 40 points a game is… not good. Yes, they did give up 73 to Ole Miss, but they also gave up 45 and 49 to Utah and San Jose State. I’m pretty okay with say Fresno State isn’t very good at defense. So I’m go with the Aggies.