Category Archives: college football

Bowl Predictions 2015: Final

Okay, it’s the last predictions of the year! Get ’em right here!

Everything I said last week is mostly still applicable, so I will keep this mainly to anything that’s changed.

CFP

I’m sticking with my predicted Top Four, since there weren’t any major upsets in the conference title games. There was one major upset on the day, though: Texas defeating Baylor, which means the Big 12’s Sugar Bowl slot will go to Oklahoma State instead of the Bears. Bit of a bum rap considering the circumstances (essentially, Baylor ran out of quarterbacks), but them’s the breaks.

Power Five

I wound up doing a major reshuffling of the SEC’s bowl games, but I saw a fair bit of news from the past 24 hours that really suggested Tennessee to the Outback Bowl and Georgia to the Taxslayer Bowl, which caused a cascade through the other games. This has the effect of avoiding a Virginia Tech-Tennessee matchup in the Belk Bowl at least, since they will meet again September. However, this will likely also send LSU to the Texas Bowl, which seems to be agreeable to all parties except the Texas Bowl and Texas Tech, but again, the SEC gets to decide which bowls its teams go to after the Citrus.

Speaking of the Citrus, they could really shake things up if they decide they don’t want the punchless edition of Florida we’re currently getting, but I don’t think that’s likely.

There were some other slight changes due to the Big 12 reshuffling and any news I could glean from elsewhere, but I think these predictions are about as good as you’re going to get for the Power 5. The main remaining sticking point is where the the extra Pac-12 teams will wind up (and, indeed, which Pac-12 teams will be the extras). There’s one major problem, which I’ll get to below.

Group of Five

The other upset of the day was Georgia State defeating Georgia Southern, putting the Panthers in their first ever bowl game, the Cure Bowl.

So, About Those 5-7 Teams…

The 5-7 teams I wound up using are Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State. The former two, I simply slotted into the Big Ten’s remaining bowl slots. Easy. San Jose State, not so much.

I wound up with a bunch of extra Pac-12 teams, a couple extra MAC teams, and an extra Mountain West team in the Spartans. The main issue that of the payouts. The director of the Arizona Bowl was quoted in saying that his first year bowl can’t afford the payout necessary to get a Pac-12 team. This means I couldn’t slot a Pac-12 team there. However, the extra MAC schools I had slotted into the backup bids that conference negotiated ahead of time. The result, then, is that I currently have Colorado State playing San Jose State. At least they didn’t play in the regular season. One solution is that the Arizona Bowl could trade a bowl slot with, say, a MAC-affiliated bowl, but the only MAC bowl out west that would make sense the Poinsettia Bowl, which already has a Mountain West school. This sort of thing has happened before, but a) it’s very, very tough for me to predict such swaps if no one is explicitly talking about them in the news and b) the Arizona Bowl is new and may not have the “pull” necessary to get someone to swap with them. So, even though it’s probably wrong, I’m going with that for now.

This Weekened in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
8:00: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): This is NIU’s sixth straight appearance in the game, and the third straight year we’ve had the same matchup. Bowling Green won 47-27 two years ago, and last year was a blowout the other way. This year, I’m expecting a slim, but sold, Bowling Green victory.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Temple @ Houston (American Athletic Conference Championship; ABC): The winner of this game is probably still in line for that Group of Five bid, but Temple probably dodged a bullet with Toledo’s loss to Western Michigan last week. Either way, I still like Houston a ton here.
  • Texas @ Baylor (ESPN): It’ll be raining again for the Bears Saturday, but mercifully it the temperatures will be around 30-35 degrees warmer. I suspect they will complete more than zero passes in the second half in this one and get a comfortable victory over the Longhorns.
  • Southern Mississippi @ Western Kentucky (Conference USA Championship; ESPN2): These were far away the best teams in Conference USA this year, and it’s been a hell of a turnaround for the Golden Eagles especially. However, it looks like the buck will stop here, as the Hilltoppers have simply been ultra-dominant in conference this year.

4:00: Florida vs. Alabama (Southeastern Conference Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): With Treon Harris, the Gators maybe stand a chance, without, it’s somewhere between “zero” and “none”.

4:30: West Virginia @ Kansas State (FS1): While the Mountaineers aren’t great or anything, K-State has simply been too dysfunction on offense too often this season. Then again, it won’t take much magic for them to get a win, but I’m not betting on it.

7:30: Air Force @ San Diego State (Mountain West Conference Championship; ESPN2): The Aztecs have outscored their conference opponents by 199 points this season, so I’m going with them.

7:45: Stanford vs. Southern California (Pacific-12 Conference Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; ESPN): Without traffic, this game is taking place about a 10 minute drive from my house. Of course, the game’s also at 4:45 local time here, so it’s not like it’d interfere with anything, but still. That aside, I would say this is a pretty lackluster matchup for the Pac-12. Sure, there’s names here, but these two have five losses between them and there’s only the Rose Bowl at stake (unless things get wacky). (Also, somewhere, somehow, old-school Pac-8 and Big Ten fans just cringed at the notion of “just the Rose Bowl”.) Oregon sullied both these teams with Vernon Adams’s late season resurgence, but the Ducks really did a number on the Trojans. Meanwhile, Stanford just pulled a rabbit in the form of a last-second victory over mutual rival Notre Dame out of their hat. I like the Cardinal a little more here.

8:00:

  • Clemson vs. North Carolina (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Even if the Tar Heels had beaten South Carolina back in September, they would still occupy that Iowa “not as good as their record” space. Simply put, this isn’t really an even matchup, and the Tigers should roll.
  • Iowa vs. Michigan State (Big Ten Conference Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): I don’t know what the over/under is for this game, but take the under. Let me put it this way: this game puts perhaps the most uninspiring major conference undefeated team ever in Iowa versus a team with, granted, only one loss but led for zero seconds in their signature wins. (I’d say 9 times out of 10, Ohio State wins that game, but Michigan-Michigan State was a coin flip.) None of that matters now, of course, they’re here, and they’re going to play each other for a spot in the playoff. Both these teams can score when the mood strikes them, but in contests against teams with defenses of similar caliber of their own the games have been tight, gritty, gray sky, three yards and a cloud of dust Big Ten football. I’m going with Sparty to win, say, 12-9 or something like that.

Bowl Predictions 2015: Week 7

Okay, sorry they’re late, but I did the research for the first time this year and learned several important facts. Since these facts mostly affect the CFP and its related bowls, let’s start there.

CFP

First off, my playoff standings are pretty well in line right now. I’m predicting Michigan State will beat Iowa Saturday, in addition to Alabama and Clemson winning, so I have my top four as such:

  1. Clemson (Orange)
  2. Alabama (Cotton)
  3. Oklahoma (Cotton)
  4. Michigan State (Orange)

Three of these teams play Saturday with varying degrees of affecting the above scenario.

  • If Iowa beats Michigan State, they’re in. This is the easiest.
  • Clemson or Alabama losing really throws a spanner into the works. I don’t think anyone really considers North Carolina or Florida playoff material, but who then steps in? If only one loses, then the main beneficiary is probably Ohio State. If both loses, then it’s going to be the Buckeyes… and who, exactly? The only remaining 1-loss team is North Carolina. Would a Pac-12 champion Stanford get in over them, even with two losses? Could a 1-loss Clemson get in anyway? The mind reels.

It looks like right now the Big Ten will be a three-bid conference. I also originally had the Big 12 as getting three bids, but no one seems to agree with me, so I put Florida State in and shuffled things around (this is part of why it took so long).

I also found out that for four of the major conferences, the next highest team from that conference in the CFP Poll gets the conference’s designated bowl, if it has one that particular year. The exception is the Big 12, which sends its second place team, which means that as it stands (assuming they win Saturday) Baylor will be the Big 12’s second team.

I also found out that Florida State is pretty highly ranked, which came as a total surprise to me because a) I haven’t paid a lot of attention to the CFP Poll (since the only that matters will come out on Sunday) and b) they lost to us, so I assumed they wouldn’t be ranked very highly. But their only other loss to #1 Clemson, so I guess that’s working out for them.

As a result, I have the other CFP Bowls lined up as such:

  • Peach: Iowa vs. Florida State
  • Fiesta: Houston vs. Notre Dame
  • Rose: Ohio State vs. Stanford
  • Sugar: Baylor vs. Mississippi

Fun, right? So let’s talk about the major conferences real quick.

ACC

Even if they lose Saturday, I think North Carolina will still be the Russell Athletic Bowl’s most attractive option unless Florida State falls to them. From there, most of the wrangling involves figuring out which bowls will want Frank Beamer’s last game. I suspect the Military Bowl wants the Hokies back, but that they’ll get snatched by the Belk Bowl first. There’s also trying to figure out the TaxSlayer/Music City situation for this year, but I’m betting that they’ll swap this year, resulting in Miami going to the TaxSlayer.

The ACC has 8 affiliated bowl games outside of the CFP, and if they do indeed send two to the CFP, then they will be one team short.

Big Ten

The Big Ten is pretty straightforward, given all the restrictions placed on the bowl games over their contracts. (In other words, look for the games to avoid having the same team twice any time soon.) The Big Ten has eight affiliated non-CFP bowls, and by sending three teams to the CFP, they will be three teams short.

Big 12

The only place where I broke rank for the Big 12 was putting Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl ahead of West Virginia, which if they can get a TTU-TAMU matchup will probably happen. The Big 12 will be two teams short this year.

Pac-12

Despite nine conference games supposedly being the death knell for bowl eligibility, the Pac-12 is the only major conference with a surplus of teams this year. Barring a calamity this Saturday, the Pac-12 will only be sending its champion to a CFP game, so they’re not getting a lot of relief there. However, all these teams will play in bowl games, the problem is figuring out where, and unfortunately my research was not very helpful on this front. Currently, I have California, Washington, and Arizona as my extra teams. Those will probably remain guesses until Sunday.

SEC

Without a quarterback, Florida looks dead in the water, but hey, stranger things have happened. (Probably.) Barring a Gator victory, though, the SEC is going to be a two-bid league this year, with Alabama and Mississippi likely getting the honors.

Outside of that, the SEC is still a mess. What does one do with the damaged goods Gators, for instance? I still have them in the Citrus Bowl (the SEC’s top non-CFP spot), but the Citrus could also take Georgia or LSU. Of course, how do to the coaching changes (or lack thereof) affect those two schools’ standing? Based on my research, the TaxSlayer will probably take Georgia or LSU, but the Outback would prefer Georgia or Tennessee. The Vols could end up in the Belk, Music City, Liberty, or Outback. I have them in the Music City, but that could change Saturday night. We’ll see.

Everyone Else

It should have been banner year for the Group of Five, who, for the first time I can, recall, will get all their eligible teams into bowl games. Since a lot of these will be at-large bids, that’s additional revenue for these conferences and schools, so it’s a boon for them. Of course, the MAC is the only conference that’s really taking advantage, with two extra teams (though the Mountain West also has an extra team). A major contributer to the lack-of-eligible-teams crisis is Conference USA, which has seven bowl games lined up, but only five eligible teams.

Indeed, let’s talk about that lack of teams. Currently, I have 75 eligible teams, leaving me five short. I suspect that’s where I’ll end up, but here’s the other teams that could get eligible Saturday:

  • Kansas State, if they defeat West Virginia
  • Georgia State, if they defeat Georgia Southern
  • South Alabama, if they defeat Appalachian State

So that means we’ll need somewhere between two to five teams with losing records. Here are the teams next in line, in order, courtesy ESPN:

  • Nebraska
  • Missouri (won’t accept)
  • Kansas State
  • Minnesota
  • San Jose State
  • Illinois
  • Rice

Some of those are ties, but I listed them out in the order most likely to be selected. In general, it’s thought that these teams would still be bound to their conference’s bowl contracts, where applicable. In the most likely scenario (five teams needed), that likely means Nebraska to the Foster Farms, Kansas State to the Cactus (which would have a currently unknown knock-on effect in the Mountain West), Minnesota to the Quick Lane, and then San Jose State and Illinois to the remaining two bowls needing at-large teams (probably the Cure Bowl and the Heart of Dallas Bowl).

THWG Thought of the Day: 11/28

Men, Georgie’s a fine football team, a very fine football team. Georgie’s bigger and faster than we are. Probably a little tougher, too.

That’s okay, because we’re smarter than they are.

Now, let me tell you what’s going to happen. That Georgie team’s going to come running out of the tunnel screaming and foaming at the mouth and smashing one another upside the head just to get warmed up.

We won’t do any of that. While they waste their energy, we’ll conserve ours. I’ve told you that they’re bigger, faster, and tougher than you. That’s true. But we do have that one big advantage.

We … are … smarter.

Think about what I teach you. Play field position. Play great defense. Make no mistakes on offense. Be great in the kicking game. Do that and we’ll keep it close.

As the game goes on, they’ll start to get tired because they wasted so much energy in the beginning. Because we’re smart, we’ll have plenty of energy left, and at some point in the fourth quarter they’ll make a mistake.

When they do make that mistake, we’ll get the football. And when that happens, I’ll think of something and we’ll win!

Coach Bobby Dodd, as told by Bill Curry

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

It’s the last full weekend of the year. Ready?

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Michigan (ABC): Ohio State looks suddenly more vulnerable after the loss to Michigan State, where their offense was thoroughly dominated. However, I would think it unwise to bet those mistakes will be repeated again. Going with the Buckeyes.
  • Clemson @ South Carolina (ESPN): The Tigers look to make it two in a row against their in-state rivals, and considering all the turmoil in Columbia that seems very likely.
  • Georgia @ Georgia Tech (ESPN2): To Hell With Georgia.
  • Iowa State @ West Virginia (FS1): Iowa State fired Paul Rhodes, which doesn’t really solve the fundamental problem of them being Iowa State. West Virginia should roll.
  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ESPNU): Okay, I think I got a little overenthusiastic last week, but this time, they should be able to win one for the Beamer.
  • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (ESPNEWS): Memphis is on the AAC West sidelines now, but they’re still have an extremely successful season. Will they be able to retain their coach? Either way, they’ll steamroll the Ponies.
  • Louisville @ Kentucky (SEC): Considering all the alternatives available, I have a hard time conceiving of a reason to watch this, but hey, it’s football, and it’ll all be gone too soon. Also, Louisville should roll.
  • Cincinnati @ East Carolina (CBSS): I’ve pretty much given up trying to figure out what Cincinnati will do week-to-week in the AAC, considering that I still get hung up thinking they should be the best team in the conference. I’m still pretty sure they’re better than ECU, though. Kinda.
  • Indiana @ Purdue (BTN): Indiana should be able to cap-off a successful, by Indiana standards, with a win here.

12:30:

  • Duke @ Wake Forest (ACC): Duke has lost four straight since beating Virginia Tech, including a rather disappointing loss to Virginia last weekend. (Yes, Duke can have disappointing losses now.) Either way, they should still be able to beat Wake.
  • Boston College @ Syracuse (ACC/RSN): ‘Sup Big East? Anyway, BC’s offense is so bad that I can’t realistically predict them to win anything since they seem completely in capable of scoring points. I’ll bet if they win this one it’s because of multiple defensive scores.

2:30: Colorado @ Utah (Pac12): In a battle of the Pac-12’s neophytes, it’s still amazing how far ahead Utah is of Colorado now. Even though the Utes had a bit of a slide at the end of the year, eliminating them from Pac-12 South contention, they’re still favorites here.

3:30:

  • Alabama @ Auburn (CBS): Auburn apparently just needs to be rebooted every few years. Check back in for a competitive Iron Bowl in a year or two.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (ABC/ESPN2): The battle of the fancy uniforms (both teams wear their “home” jerseys in this game, because LA I guess?) is also the battle for the Pac-12 South this year. Both teams could have their seasons reasonably described as “uneven”. USC is fresh off a pasting by a suddenly resurgent Oregon, while UCLA got a crucial win in Salt Lake City to eliminate Utah from contention, but lost to Wazzou two weeks ago. So this one’s pretty much a toss-up in my mind. I’m giving the Bruins a slight edge.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN2): I’m not entirely sure who Wolfpack fans think is their greatest rival. Nonetheless, UNC should have this one unless their concentration slips.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Michigan State (ESPN): I don’t… think Sparty will have a letdown after their huge win over Ohio State. Probably.
  • Northwestern vs. Illinois (@Chicago, IL; ESPNU): While Illinois is still better this year than they have any right to be, I like the Wildcats here.
  • Brigham Young @ Utah State (CBSS): BYU should be able to handle this.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (BTN): Hey Wisconsin, didn’t see you sneaking up there, which is pretty humorous when you consider the typical build of their linemen. Regardless, this battle for the Axe may be close, but it’ll be the Badgers’ in the end.

4:00:

  • Kansas State @ Kansas (FS1): While it’s not K-State’s year, a blowout over KU should act as a nice salve.
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (SEC): Vandy and Mizzou are having a content to see who can field the most awful offense in the SEC, and currently Missouri is “winning” by eight points. It’ll be a close race to the end.

    7:00: Connecticut @ Temple (ESPNU): Way mess things up, Huskies. I suspect as a result of last week’s upset over Houston they’ll get pasted here.

    7:15: Mississippi @ Mississippi State (ESPN2): After mostly disappointing seasons, these two teams enter their final game in a high note. I’m thinking they’re about even, so I’m giving an edge to the home Bulldogs.

    7:30:

    • Notre Dame @ Stanford (FOX): I have no idea who is going to win this game. I’ve watched a lot of both these teams this year and I think that the Cardinal are more than capable of handing Notre Dame their second loss. This game is right up there with Bedlam for game of the day, and I would advise to find some way of watching both at once. As for the winner here, I’m going with the Domers, by a smidge.
    • Florida State @ Florida (ESPN): Florida sure looks bad without their quarterback, huh? That said, I think they’re still capable of beating FSU like 12-10, but if FSU scores 17 or more I don’t think the Gators will be able to match.
    • Texas A&M @ Louisiana State (SEC): LSU is going to win this game, and then Les Miles is going to get fired. The world is dumb.

    8:00: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Bedlam. After a weirdly long Sooner winning streak, these teams are 2-2 against each other with two of those games going to overtime. This rivalry has always struck me as more fun and weird than most, and under the lights in Stillwater with everything on the line I’m sure we’ll have both. I’m leaning toward the Sooners, but I have zero confidence in that pick.

    9:00: Colorado State @ Fresno State (CBSS): This is not, as far as I know, a rivalry, but will put to rest an unfun season for Fresno State.

    10:00: Arizona State @ California (FS1): Arizona State beat Arizona, Cal lost to Stanford. Will there be a hangover here from last weekend, and if so, in which direction? Hard to say. Going with the Sun Devils.

    10:15: Air Force @ New Mexico (ESPNU): Hope you like the option in this one. I like the Falcons here.

    10:45: Nevada @ San Diego State (ESPN2): And finally, the end. I hope by the time you get here, you’re decompressing from however you enjoyed (or didn’t) your rivalry game and are treating the last full day of college football appropriately. Have fun, stay safe, and the Aztecs probably have this one.