Category Archives: college football

Bowl Games 2018: Weeknight Warmups

The next phase of bowl season kicks off with three games on each day after Christmas. We’ll talk about those nine games here.

As for my picks, I started off pretty strong, going 5-0 on the opening Saturday. However, I then followed it up with a 3-5 performance over the rest of the games heading into Christmas.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Wednesday, December 26
1:30: Boise State vs. Boston College (First Responder Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): Boston College’s offensive issues make it really hard for me to pick them as a favorite here in the Zombie Cotton Bowl. Boise, of course, occasionally has offensive issues of their own, and BC’s defense could pose a problem, but I still like the Broncos here.
S&P+ line: BSU -8.8
Vegas line: BSU -2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Just one 13 years ago, back when this game was the MPC Computers Bowl. Boston College won 27-21.
Last bowl game: I’ve almost certainly written about Boise State’s bowl streak before, which is now tied with Wisconsin for the fifth-longest streak in the country at 17 straight postseason appearances. But in addition to the bit where they have been to a bowl game every season since the 2002 Humanitarian Bowl (where they beat Iowa State 34-16), they could have gone bowling at 8-4 in 2001, which would connect them to the 1999 and 2000 seasons where they had a combined record of 20-5. But wait, there’s more, as the Broncos were also eligible in 1998 at 6-5 but not invited. So if you include those four games, that’s actually 21 straight seasons above 0.500. That sustained level of success, across four coaches in freakin’ Boise, Idaho is really kind of amazing. Oh, right, for Boston College this is their third straight bowl game. They beat Maryland 36-30 in the 2016 Quick Lane Bowl and lost 27-20 to Iowa in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl.
Announcers: Lowell Galindo and Ahmad Brooks

5:15: Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech (Quick Lane Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): This is a tough one. Obviously, I’m going to miss Paul Johnson and his style of offense. Watching Army obliterate Houston the other day didn’t help. I’m still incredibly upset at how absolutely screwed we got by the bowls and the ACC with this bowl assignment. A game in Detroit the day after Christmas was about the worst case scenario for me in terms of trying to go to Tech’s last game under Johnson. It still doesn’t make any sense to me. Regardless, I hope the coaches and players don’t feel that way and absolutely go out and send CPJ out the right way.
S&P+ line: UMN -2.4
Vegas line: GT -5.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Gophers are rowing the boat to a bowl game for the first time since the 2016 Holiday Bowl, where they beat Washington State 17-12. For the Yellow Jackets, this is the first bowl appearance since the 33-18 beatdown of Kentucky in the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Neely and Ray Bentley

9:00: Texas Christian vs. California (Cheez-It Bowl @ Phoenix, AZ; ESPN): It’s hard to find much to recommend in this game beyond “it’s football, it’s on TV, and it features two Power 5 conference teams”. Both teams struggle to score and this figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, which definitely favors the Bears.
S&P+ line: TCU -1.4
Vegas line: EVEN
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: For TCU, this is their fourth straight bowl game, dating to the 2014 Peach Bowl, where they demolished Ole Miss 42-3. They beat Stanford 39-37 in last season’s Alamo Bowl. Cal’s last postseason appearance was the 2015 Armed Forces Bowl, which was a 55-36 win over Air Force.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Kelly Stouffer

Thursday, December 27
1:30: Duke vs. Temple (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN): Meanwhile, our new coach’s old team faces Duke over in Shreveport. Yes, I would’ve preferred to go here over Detroit. That said, Duke will presumably recover from their season ending disaster against Wake Forest (seriously, it might have been the most surprising result of the year) and use that motivation to outrun Temple.
S&P+ line: Temple -6.7
Vegas line: Temple -3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Duke defeated Northern Illinois in last season’s Quick Lane Bowl 36-15. This is Temple’s fourth straight bowl game, dating to the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl, which they lost 32-17 to Toledo. Last season they beat FIU 28-3 in the Gasparilla Bowl.
Announcers: Mike Couzens and Kirk Morrison

5:15: Miami vs. Wisconsin (Pinstripe Bowl @ New York, NY; ESPN): Neither team really has a functional quarterback, which is how the Badgers did things like “lose by three touchdowns to Minnesota to end the season”. I think the Canes are just marginally more effective on offense, though.
S&P+ line: UM -0.7
Vegas line: UM -3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: Wisconsin leads the all-time series 3-2. They first met in 1958, where the Badgers won 20-0. Suffice it to say, the Canes of the late-80’s turned the tables in 1988 and 1989, winning by a combined score of 74-6. The last two meetings were in bowl games: the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl (20-14 in favor of Wisconsin) and the last season’s Orange Bowl (34-24, again Wisconsin).
Last bowl game: For the Canes, this is this their sixth straight bowl game. Their streak started with a 36-9 loss to Louisville in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. For the Badgers, this is the 17th straight bowl game, a record that ties them with Boise State for the fifth best streak in the country. As such, their streak began with a 31-28 win over Colorado in the 2002 Alamo Bowl. The most recent game for either was, you guessed it, last season’s Orange Bowl, which as previously noted the Badgers won 34-24.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Mike Golic Jr, and Dan Orlovsky

9:00: Baylor vs. Vanderbilt (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): Vandy seems to be a slight favorite here, but I like Baylor’s offense a lot better here.
S&P+ line: Vandy -3.3
Vegas line: Vandy -3.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Baylor is undefeated against Vandy, winning 47-6 in 1953 and 25-19 in 1954.
Last bowl game: Baylor’s 1-11 season last year snapped a seven game bowl streak, so their last appearance in a bowl was the 2016 Cactus Bowl, where they defeated Boise State 31-12. Vandy’s last postseason appearance was the 2016 Independence Bowl, where they lost 41-17 to NC State.
Announcers: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, and Cole Cubelic

Friday, December 28
1:30: Purdue vs. Auburn (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ESPN): After the magical upset of Ohio State back in late October, the Boilermakers have gone 2-3. Auburn hasn’t had a magical, well, anything this season, so the “Fire Gus!” undercurrents are as strong as ever. Naturally, according to the rules of Auburn football, this means Auburn will win in a blowout.
S&P+ line: AU -6.1
Vegas line: AU -3.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Auburn’s sixth straight bowl game. Their streak started with a 34-31 loss to Florida State in the 2013-14 BCS Championship game. Last season, they also lost to an eventual national champion, falling to UCF 34-27 in the Peach Bowl. The Boilermakers won last season’s Foster Farms Bowl 38-35 over Arizona.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks

5:15: Syracuse vs. West Virginia (Camping World Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ESPN): This incredibly interesting matchup will be slightly less interesting due to West Virginia quarterback Will Grier forgoing the game. Nonetheless, this matchup of former Big East foes promises to feature offense galore. This game should be the perfect antidote if you haven’t found most of the games interesting so far. I still like WVU, but less than I did back when I made the picks.
S&P+ line: WVU -6.5
Vegas line: EVEN
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Let’s see, their last meeting was the 2012 Pinstripe Bowl, which the Orange won 38-14. What else did I say about this former Big East series at the time? Well: “With both being Northeastern independents at one time or another and then members of the Big East, they’ve met 59 times dating back to 1945. Syracuse has the slight edge all time (32-27) and won their last regular season meeting last year, 49-23.” So the Orange are now 33-27, and, well, let’s just say my prediction of a WVU blowout didn’t come to pass.
Last bowl game: The Orange’s last bowl appearance was the 2013 Texas Bowl, where they beat Minnesota 21-17. This is the fifth straight bowl game for the Mountaineers, dating to the 2014 Liberty Bowl, where they lost 45-37 to Texas A&M. Last season WVU lost to Utah in the Heart of Dallas Bowl 30-14.
Announcers: Dave Flemming, Rod Gilmore, and Quint Kessenich

9:00: Iowa State vs. Washington State (Alamo Bowl @ San Antonio, TX; ESPN): Finally, we conclude this slate of bowls with Wazzu in the Alamodome. The bit there is “dome”: any chance Wazzu had against Washington was the terrible weather for a passing offense. I this rated more highly because this will have a unique offense, but I like the Cougars by a lot here.
S&P+ line: WSU -6.9
Vegas line: WSU -3.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Iowa State defeated Memphis 21-20 in last season’s Liberty Bowl. This is Wazzu’s fourth straight bowl game, going back to the 2015 Sun Bowl, a 20-14 win over Miami. Last season they lost 42-17 to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Greg McElroy, and Tom Luginbill

Bowl Games 2018: You Have One Week Left to Finish Your Christmas Shopping

No, seriously, you do.

Anyway, I did pretty well on the opening day of bowl games, though honestly I spent most of it flying in circles at the Palo Alto airport. Regardless, you can find all of my picks and the schedule right here. This post will get through the rest of the pre-Christmas bowls.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday, December 18
7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Alabama-Birmingham (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ESPN): So after a few days of having to talk about odd NFL playoff scenarios, we’re back to what’s really import this time of year: bowl games. And this should actually be a good one. NIU upset Buffalo to win the MAC earlier this month, and UAB are C-USA champs, so we’ve got a champ versus champ matchup here. That said, it’ll be close and tight, but I think the Blazers can score enough to win the end. (Go Blazers!)
S&P+ line: UAB -2.2
Vegas line: UAB -2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: NIU went to last year’s Quick Lane Bowl and lost 36-15 to Duke. UAB will go to a consecutive bowl for the first time in its history, though they’re likely hoping for a better result than last year’s 41-6 loss to Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Lamont, Desmond Howard, and Jonathan Vilma

Wednesday, December 19
8:00: San Diego State vs. Ohio (Frisco Bowl @ Frisco, TX; ESPN): I hope you don’t like points, because there won’t be many in this game. I think the Aztecs are the better all-around team, but their offense is, well, it’s not good. I’m picking SDSU, but I also think it’ll be tight.
S&P+ line: SDSU -1
Vegas line: Ohio -2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Azetcs have a nifty nine-game bowl streak going. Back in 2010 they beat Navy 35-14 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Last year they faced Army and lost 42-35 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This should be Ohio’s tenth bowl game in a row, but they went 6-6 in 2014 and didn’t get invited, so instead this is their fourth. They lost 31-29 to Appalachian State in the 2015 Camellia Bowl, and beat UAB 41-6 in last year’s Bahamas Bowl.
Announcers: Kevin Brown and Andre Ware

Thursday, December 20
8:00: Marshall vs. South Florida (Gasparilla Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN): The more I look at USF’s season, the less I understand it. Especially the part where they manhandled us (well, that and ran what seemed like 50 kicks back for scores) and started 7-0 with increasingly shaky results (like only beating a dreadful UConn team 38-30). USF’s record is now 7-5, where they weren’t even on UCF’s level in the second half that game. Just by talent, USF’s should win this game, and that win over Tech is why I’m picking them. But it’s hard to feel good about it.
S&P+ line: MU – 0.9
Vegas line: MU -2.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Marshall beat Colorado State in last year’s New Mexico Bowl 31-28. This is USF’s fourth straight bowl game, dating back to the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl, where they lost 45-35 to Western Kentucky. Last season they beat Texas Tech 38-34 in the Birmingham Bowl.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Dan Orlovsky

Friday, December 21
12:30: Toledo vs. Florida International (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): I haven’t watched either of these teams all year, so I don’t have any strong opinions on this one. Well, other than that I really think Toledo is going to win.
S&P+ line: Toledo -6.5
Vegas line: Toledo -5.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Three. The two met in 2008 and 2009, and as well as the 2010 Little Ceasars Bowl. FIU won that game 34-32 and leads the all-time series 2-1.
Last bowl game: This should be the ninth game in a row for the Rockets, but they didn’t go bowling despite a 7-5 record in 2013. So, instead, their five bowl streak starts with a 63-44 win in the 2014/15 GoDaddy.com Bowl. They got blanked 34-0 by Appalachian State in last season’s Dollar General Bowl. FIU lost 28-3 to Temple in last year’s Gasparilla Bowl.
Announcers: Steve Levy and Desmond Howard

4:00: Brigham Young vs. Western Michigan (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): WMU’s only two wins of the season over teams above 0.500 are Eastern Michigan (understandable) and Northern Illinois (less so). They also got shellacked by the early season Power 5 teams they played. BYU isn’t a power team, but they can at least kind of hang with Power 5 teams (and have that win at Wisconsin). The Stormin’ Mormons appear to just be a better team.
S&P+ line: BYU -9.4
Vegas line: BYU -11.5
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Five, all from 1962-1970. WMU won 35-17 in their last meeting, but BYU leads all-time, 3-2.
Last bowl game: BYU’s 12-game bowl streak was broken by least year’s 4-9 record, so they’re starting anew. Their last bowl appearance was a 24-21 win over Wyoming in the 2016 Poinsettia Bowl. For the Broncos, they didn’t go to a bowl game last season despite a 6-6 record, so their last bowl game was the 24-16 loss to Wisconsin the 2016/17 Cotton Bowl.
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Tom Ramsey

Saturday, December 22
12:00: Wake Forest vs. Memphis (Birmingham Bowl @ Birmingham, AL; ESPN): Thanks to the magic of ACC scheduling, Wake Forest is in our conference and we haven’t played them in years, and as a result I haven’t watched a lot of Wake recently. They seem pretty good, but not spectacular. The Tigers, though, whoo boy, when they can get the offense rolling, they can roll. The only real inexplicable loss on their schedule was a 40-24 loss to Tulane. Otherwise, they lost to Navy (limited possessions), Mizzou (just got outscored and couldn’t keep up), and UCF (twice, the first time nearly pulling of the upset and still scoring 41 the second time). So, yeah, I like the Tigers here.
S&P+ line: Memphis -12.1
Vegas line: Memphis -4.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: It’s tied 2-2 all-time, with “all-time” consisting of four games from 1964-1967. Memphis won that last contest 42-10.
Last bowl game: For the Demon Deacons, this is their third bowl game in a row going back to the 2016 Military Bowl, where they beat Temple 24-26. Last season they won an unexpectedly lit Belk Bowl over Texas A&M, 55-52. For Memphis, this is their fifth straight bowl game, dating to the 2014 Miami Beach Bowl which they won 55-48. (A game almost certainly more famous now for the fight that took place afterward, but it was a good game on its own, too!) They lost 21-20 in their own stadium to Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl last season.
Announcers: Dave Neal and DJ Shockley

3:30: Houston vs. Army (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): About Army’s only hope here is that they essentially do the same thing they did to Oklahoma: limit possessions, hold on the ball, and hope for a lucky break. Well, that and the usual “more talented but unmotivated team” thing we sometimes see in bowl season. Generally speaking, I don’t bet on either of those things.
S&P+ line: UH -7.8
Vegas line: Army -2.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Seven consecutive from Army’s ill-fated stint in Conference USA from 1998-2004. The Cougars won the last game 35-21 and lead the all-time series 5-2.
Last bowl game: For the Cougars, this is their sixth consecutive bowl. Their streak dates to the 2013/14 BBVA Compass Bowl, where they lost 41-24 to Vanderbilt. They lost last year’s Hawaii Bowl 33-27 to Fresno State. For Army, this is the first time in their history they have gone to three consecutive bowl games. They beat North Texas 38-31 in the 2016 Heart of Dallas Bowl, and then beat San Diego State 42-35 in last year’s edition of this game.
Announcers: Chris Cotter, Emmanuel Acho, and Jim Mora Jr.

7:00: Buffalo vs. Troy (Dollar General Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Okay, so Troy didn’t beat LSU this year and they somehow lost to Liberty, but this still a good, exciting team. Myself, along with the rest of the college football internet universe, is completed baffled at how Neal Brown hasn’t gotten a bigger job yet despite building Troy into a consistent winner. I like them better than Buffalo, who took a 10-2 season into the MAC title game and blew it against Northern Illinois.
S&P+ line: Troy -1.2
Vegas line: UB -2.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: For the Bulls, this is their first bowl game appearance since the 2013 Potato Bowl, where they lost 49-24 to San Diego State. For Troy, this is their third consecutive bowl game, after 2016’s 28-23 win over Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl and last year’s 50-30 win over North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Ahmad Brooks

10:30: Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Well, it’s not on Christmas Eve this year thanks to the NFL, but the Hawaii Bowl is still basically Christmas Eve in my mind. And also, Santa will definitely be enjoying this one with some milk and cookies because boy howdy that’s a late bowl game kickoff. Anyway, you just about have to take Hawaii in the Hawaii bowl, don’t you? I certainly did.
S&P+ line: LTU -2.3
Vegas line: EVEN
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Back in the WAC (2003-2011), these teams met seven times, with an additional meeting in 2000 for good measure. Hawaii won the last matchup 44-26 and leads 8-2 all-time.
Last bowl game: Hawaii last bowled in the 2016 edition of this game, where they beat Middle Tennessee State 52-35. For the Bulldogs, they have now gone to five consecutive bowls, dating back to the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, where they defeated Illinois 35-18. Last season they defeated SMU 51-10 in the Frisco Bowl.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Kirk Morrison

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Colgate @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Quarterfinal; ESPN): I like to at least mention the FCS playoffs in these posts, but I don’t have enough background for the FCS schools to really say anything definitive.

3:00: Navy vs. Army (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): Obviously, you should watch this, but this is as big of an advantage for West Point as I can ever recall. This Navy team has struggled this season, and while the circumstances of this game ensure they’ll at least be there, I can’t see their defense stopping Army. Again, the Cadets are as big of favorites as I can ever recall.

Bowl Predictions 2018: Final

And here they are, my final bowl projections.

I don’t have a lot of energy to really do a full write-up, but I’ll give it a stab.

  • There’s not a lot of changes from last week, but I was able to confirm a few more things and get a better idea on some others.
  • I am assuming that Oklahoma will be the #4 seed in the playoffs.
  • Otherwise, I am here for a West Virginia-Washington State Alamo Bowl. It won’t snow in the Alamodome, that’s for sure.
  • As a reminder, due to ESPN’s influence over several game, there can (and likely will) be bizarre, unpredictable results. I have listed all of these games on the bottom of the page, but so far the only way I’ve used them is to predict where BYU is going to go.

At any rate, this will all be moot soon. From there, it’ll be all about figuring out how the actual matchups will go.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

Naturally, I have to try to follow up my 5000 word… thing and write a normal post. It’s also really late and I have to be at work tomorrow. Here goes!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday

7:00: Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): I’m just going to assume the Bulls got this. You got this, right Bulls?

8:00: Washington vs. Utah (Pac-12 Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; FOX): I wonder if I could just, like, show up at Levi’s tomorrow and they’d let me in. I’m pretty sure the Pac-12 could use the help. Whereas it would’ve at least been fun if Wazzu could make it here, this is just, well, it’s a thing that definitely shows off the Pac-12 can play defense, too. UDub should be able to out-athlete the Utes, as long as Jake Browning keeps them in the game, at least.

Saturday

Noon:

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas (Big 12 Championship @ Arlington, TX; ABC): Second verse, same the first? Nah, probably not. And for the sake of wanting an interesting team in the playoff, I really, really hope not.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference Championship; ESPN): It’s the Fun Belt title game and I’m taking App State the whole way. Next up: make up game lightning round!
  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCE): NCSU
  • Marshall @ Virginia Tech (ACCE): VPI
  • Akron @ South Carolina (SECA): USC

1:30: Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee State (Conference USA Championship; CBSS): So here’s a situation where UAB actually kinda got waxed against MTSU last weekend. But hey, the Blazers turned it over a couple of times and got sacked a bunch, so… I’ll ignore my own advice from the Big 12 game above and say Go Blazers!

3:00: Stanford @ California (“The Big Game”; Pac12): By far the more interesting of the two Pac-12 games this weekend, it’ll probably be kind of a mess up in Berkeley due to the rain. Which, well, if we’re running and sliding everywhere, let’s face it, that probably favors Stanford.

3:30: Memphis @ Central Florida (American Conference Championship; ABC): UCF should be good enough without Milton that they’ll win anyway, but nonetheless… would they be the G5 pick even with a loss? Hopefully we don’t have to find out.

4:00: Georgia vs. Alabama (Southeastern Conference Championship; CBS): Bama. Because the last thing I need right now is a Georgia upset that all but guarantees that they both make the freakin’ playoff.

7:45: Fresno State @ Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship; ESPN): This should actually be pretty fun, but considering the probably conditions (Boise in the first weekend of December) I’m going with the hometown Broncos.

8:00:

  • Northwestern vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Conference Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Well, maybe keep an eye on that Mountain West title game because boy howdy these primetime games look bleak. After Ohio State did… whatever they did Michigan last week, they have to be prohibitive favorites here. And they are.
  • Clemson vs. Pittsburgh (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): Clemson is our best chance for something interesting to happen in the playoff if Oklahoma doesn’t get in. They have to win. They just have to.