Category Archives: college football

Bowl Predictions 2021: Week 1

It’s that time again, folks. The first set of projections are here.

Here’s how this works. Each weekend from now until the end of the season, I project out every potential bowl eligible team. In the past, I had pretty much eyeballed this, but these days I now use SP+ to project each team’s final record.

I then attempt to determine the College Football Playoff controlled games based on their rules and precedents. Remember, my projections are attempting to extrapolate out from now through the last weekend of the season.

For non-CFP games, I attempt to apply each conference’s selection criteria to the bowls they are partnered with. Unfortunately, this is when the science starts to get very, very inexact. With the latest bowl deals that nominally took effect for the 2020 season, almost every conference has abandoned any sort of performance-based criteria for how their bowls are seeded. In addition, some conferences, especially in the Group-of-Five, have ceded almost all control of where their teams are placed to ESPN events, which owns about half of the bowl games.

This makes the call of which teams go where nearly impossible to predict anymore. Nonetheless, I will give it a shot and see if I can learn anything this year that I can apply to future seasons. I didn’t really do bowl predictions last year because half of the games were canceled and many teams opted-out.

An additional wrinkle for this week is that I am short five teams for all available slots. I will work in future weeks to determine what remedies may be available if this actually happens, but in the meantime any game that is lacking a team should have a “???” in at least one of its slots.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 10

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

11:30: Army vs. Air Force (@Arlignton, TX; CBS): So if this is 11:30 AM Eastern, then it’s 10:30 Central. That’s pretty early, but I would imagine that if there’s any group of college students that can deal with waking up early, it’s academy students. That said, I think Army is till the best of the academies this year and I’ll take them here.

Noon:

  • Ohio State @ Nebraska (FOX): Nebraska could well still surprise here, but they’ll still lose here.
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ABC): This is a non-conference game! Okay, with that out of the way Wake should roll.
  • Missouri @ Georgia (ESPN): Speaking of rolling… I think UGA’s best chances to lose now are Auburn and whoever they play in the SEC championship?
  • Illinois @ Minnesota (ESPN2): The Golden Gophers are surprisingly decent this year, and Illinois shouldn’t be able to do much to disabuse that notion.
  • Kansas State @ Kansas (“Sunflower Showdown”; FS1): It’s a rivalry game, but… K-State should obliterate this edition to the Jayhawks.
  • Southern Methodist @ Memphis (ESPNU): Oh, if Memphis was good this year as they’ve been in the past few… but they’re not.
  • Liberty @ Mississippi (SEC): Ole Miss by… a lot.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Alabama-Birmingham (CBSS): Go Blazers.
  • Pittsburgh @ Duke (ACCN): Pitt should be able to take advantage of this opportunity.

12:30: Georgia Tech @ Miami (ACC/RSN): I’ve written a lot about hope this year. I mean, a fair bit of that came during the Braves’s playoff run, which I obviously greatly enjoyed. Regardless, this doesn’t seem like a team that’s getting better, and that’s extremely concerning at this point. I don’t think Tech would make any moves during the season, but this something that will definitely need to some hard questions asked during the offseason.

3:00:

  • California @ Arizona (Pac12): It’s late and I’m tired. LIGHTNING ROUND (unless I have something particularly insightful to say). Cal? Big “oof” from noted Cal alum Aaron Rodgers the past few days though, eh? Maybe it turns out that the rest of the Rodgerses were avoiding Aaron instead of the other way around like we all thought.
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Temple @ East Carolina (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Michigan State @ Purdue (ABC): Sparty? It definitely seems about right that they’d beat Michigan and then drop one to Purdue, but the Boilermakers kinda did that already this year, so could they do it again? Probably not, but it may be worth watching to see.
  • Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): Domers.
  • Baylor @ Texas Christian (FOX): Gary Patterson just pulled the “you can’t fire me, I quit!” at TCU, so I’ll take the Bears.
  • Auburn @ Texas A&M (CBS): My heart says Auburn’s gonna win this, but my brain says TAMU. Should be worth watching though!
  • Oklahoma State @ West Virginia (ESPN): Okie State, probably?
  • Tulsa @ Cincinnati (ESPN2): Cincy!
  • Pennsylvania State @ Maryland (FS1): Penn State!
  • Wisconsin @ Rutgers (BTN): Wisky!
  • Colorado State @ Wyoming (CBSS): Wyoming?
  • Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky (Stadium)
  • Rice @ Charlotte (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Tulane @ Central Florida (ESPNU): UCF?
  • Mississippi State @ Arkansas (SEC): Miss State?
  • North Carolina State @ Florida State (ACCN): Wolfpack!

6:00:

  • Marshall @ Florida Atlantic (Facebook)
  • Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Iowa @ Northwestern (BTN): Iowa!
  • Louisiana State @ Alabama (ESPN): Bama!
  • Tennessee @ Kentucky (ESPN2): This is actually pretty hard. Logic says Kentucky, but keep an eye on this one.
  • Boise State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno. This should be more fun but Boise’s just down this year.
  • Oregon State @ Colorado (Pac12): Beavers!
  • Nevada-Las Vegas @ New Mexico (Stadium)
  • Old Dominion @ Florida International (espn3.com)

7:30:

  • Indiana @ Michigan (FOX): Michigan should be able to use this as a salve.
  • Oregon @ Washington (ABC): Ducks, provided they figure out how to not mess around and just win this thing.
  • Texas @ Iowa State (FS1): Texas?
  • Houston @ South Florida (ESPNU): Cougars!
  • Florida @ South Carolina (SEC): Gators!
  • Clemson @ Louisville (ACCN): Clemson?

10:00: San Jose State @ Nevada (FS2): Wolf Pack!

10:15: Texas-San Antonio @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN2): Y’all, this is the hipster game of the week, but for good reason. Sure, UTEP took a loss that week, but still the Roadrunners have to go all the way out to El Paso for game that will start at 8:15 local time. I. Am. Here. For. This. I hope the Sun Bowl is too. I’ll still pick the Roadrunners though.

10:30: Southern California @ Arizona State (ESPN): Uh, Sun Devils, I guess?

11:00: San Diego State @ Hawaii (FS1): Aztecs, but a good wind down either way.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 9

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Texas @ Baylor (ABC): Baylor’s not half bad this year and the ‘Horns are still trying to get better. This may be an upset, but I’ll take the Bears at home.
  • Michigan @ Michigan State (FOX): This game is high-anxiety for Michigan fans, though apparently not so much for Sparty fans? Either way, while Michigan State has been exciting this year, I just feel like the Wolverines are the better team. I’m going with them.
  • Iowa @ Wisconsin (ESPN): This game is going to be very, shall we say, offensively challenged. But in that case, the edge could well go to the better defense, and that’s where Iowa has an edge.
  • Cincinnati @ Tulane (ESPN2): Cincy should be able to take care of business here.
  • Texas State @ Louisiana (ESPNU): As should the Ragin’ Cajuns.
  • Rutgers @ Illinois (BTN): Rutgers? Both of these teams are not good, but I think Rutgers is a bit more competent. Yes, I know Illinois beat Penn State last week, but I thought that was a pretty weird circumstance and Penn State is apparently just stuck in the mud offensively with their quarterback not at 100%.
  • Indiana @ Maryland (BTN): Indiana should be able to pick up a win in College Park, at least.
  • Bowling Green @ Buffalo (CBSS): Bowling Green is 0-4 in MAC play so far, and after this I suspect they’ll be 0-5.
  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ACCN): Pitt should be able to handle this miserable Miami team.
  • Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (“Techmo Bowl”; ACC/RSN): It’s Tech v. Tech, though we’re still the real Tech. That said, this is a game where we’ve got to look like we have any sort of clue on defense. The secondary especially was supposed to be a strength and yet we seem to get burned multiple times a game.
    On another note, I’m in town for the World Series this weekend. I had considering braving the cold, blustery weather for Homecoming, but ultimately decided not to. I guess one place I’d like to get this program to is a place where I didn’t even think about it, as in, I’d be going for sure.
  • Massachusetts @ Liberty (espn3.com)
  • Central Florida @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • North Texas @ Rice (espn3.com)
  • Iowa State @ West Virginia (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Washington State @ Arizona State (FS1): Wazzu was directionless as expected, so the Sun Devils should be able to take care of business.
  • Missouri @ Vanderbilt (SEC): This is about as dire as it gets for the SEC. Vandy just can’t score points against SEC defenses though and I think even Mizzou will given them trouble.

3:30:

  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (ABC): The Red Raiders fired their coach earlier this week. While not entirely unexpected, it’s still interesting to see a mid-season firing. Suffice it to say, I don’t think this helps their preparation for the Sooners.
  • Georgia vs. Florida (“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” @ Jacksonville, FL; CBS): About the only scenario that could keep Georgia out of the playoffs at this point is multiple losses, and this is about their only chance to pick up a loss before facing Alabama in the SECCG. So go get ’em, Gators.
  • Colorado @ Oregon (FOX): The Ducks seem to have a troubling tendency to play up or down to their competition, which probably means that this will be another game that should be a blowout be way too close for comfort and/or the playoff committee.
  • Florida State @ Clemson (ESPN): Probably on big ESPN because of the logos on the helmets, because it’s certainly not the quality of the football that will be played. But Clemson’s defense can bring it, so they should still be able to hold off the Noles.
  • Purdue @ Nebraska (ESPN2): If Nebraska is actually good, then they really, really need to win this game to have any shot at 6-6. And I think they will.
  • Texas Christian @ Kansas State (ESPNU): This game just strikes me as kind of dire. I like K-State here.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (BTN): Do we need to start talking about how Minnesota is 5-2 and will probably be bowl eligible after this game? I feel like they’ve been somewhat overlooked.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Old Dominion (CBSS): Tech been bad, but Old Dominion has been… worse.
  • Boston College @ Syracuse (ACC/RSN): Since starting 4-0 in non-conference play, BC is now 4-3. I suspect that will be evened to 4-4 after a visit to the Carrier Down.
  • Florida International @ Marshall (Stadium)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Wyoming @ San Jose State (FS2): Wyoming appears to have pulled off the same trick BC did above, and I think they’ll suffer a similar fate in San Jose.
  • Duke @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Wake will remain undefeated after this. They put up 70 on Army last week, and they could do it again against Duke.
  • Charlotte @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)

6:00:

  • Texas-El Paso @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Georgia Southern (“Modern Day Hate”; ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Mississippi @ Auburn (ESPN): Ole Miss is having a perfectly fine season, which means that Bo Nix and company are poised to get in and start wrecking it. I’m going to stop short of picking Auburn here, but I like their chances for sure.
  • Southern Methodist @ Houston (ESPN2): This is the kind of game they wanted between these schools in the American. SMU is 7-0 and Houston is 6-1. Both these teams are playing well, and this should determine who the second best team in the conference is after Cincy. I like Houston’s chances, honestly.
  • Kansas @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Oklahoma State is no longer undefeated, but this is the mother of all “get right” games.
  • Arizona @ Southern California (ESPNU): This game should not be as dire as it’s going to be, but USC should be able to win this one.
  • Kentucky @ Mississippi State (SEC): Miss State’s been better, but not better enough to stop the Wildcats.
  • Boise State @ Colorado State (CBSS): Boise is a bit of a wounded animal rolling into this one, and I don’t see it getting better for them at the hand of the Rams.
  • Oregon State @ California (Pac12): Cal can’t score points, so they’re pretty much toast in this one.

7:30:

  • Pennsylvania State @ Ohio State (ABC): Well, this was supposed to be the Game of the Week probably, but with Penn State’s quarterback situation and the way Ohio State is playing across the board these days means that this will probably be lopsided. Plus, it’s in Columbus.
  • North Carolina @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame should roll here.
  • Louisville @ North Carolina State (ACCN): I keep hearing that Louisville might be good, but I don’t buy it. I like NCSU to get to 6-2 here.

10:00: California-Los Angeles @ Utah (ESPN): This game will go a long way toward figuring out control of the Pac-12 South. It’s a classic matchup of stingy defense meets good offense. Who prevails? I like the Bruins, honestly, but hey, maybe Salt Lake will get weird on All Hallow’s Eve.

10:15: Virginia @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): Speaking of Utah locales on the weekend when most will be getting their Halloween on, UVA is going out to Provo in the middle of the season. Good like with that y’all!

10:30:

  • Washington @ Stanford (FS1): You may think UDub has “figured some things out”, but look deeper and see that only beat Arizona 21-16. Yeah, I’ll take Stanford.
  • Fresno State @ San Diego State (CBSS): This one should be worth saying up for. SDSU maybe “Iowa on a coast” (complete with the best punter in the country!), but if there’s a Mountain West team that can challenge them it’s Fresno. I think the Aztecs can play field position and keep it low scoring enough to win, but watch out if Fresno breaks containment.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 8

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Illinois @ Pennsylvania State (ABC): Yes, Penn State lost to Iowa, but I don’t think they’ll lose to Illinois.
  • Northwestern @ Michigan (FOX): Michigan should be okay here,
  • Oklahoma @ Kansas (ESPN): Look, y’all, I’m going to be level with you. Week 8 is… not amazing. We only get a handful of college football weekends each year and we should aim to enjoy all of them. But hey, if there’s a weekend where maybe you just watch your own team, or maybe you mow the lawn one last time to mulch the leaves… this might be it.
  • Cincinnati @ Navy (ESPN2): So, on that note. LIGNTNING ROUND! Cincy.
  • Kansas State @ Texas Tech (FS1): Tech.
  • Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan (ESPNU): Huskies!
  • Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Arkansas (SEC)
  • Wake Forest @ Army (CBSS): Wake!
  • Massachusetts @ Florida State (ACCN): FSU
  • Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

12:30: Syracuse @ Virginia Tech (ACC/RSN): VPI?

1:00: Kent State @ Ohio (ESPN+)

2:00: Texas State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

3:00: Wisconsin @ Purdue (BTN): Feels like Purdue used all their bullets taking down Iowa; I don’t think they can pull that same trick twice.

3:30:

  • Oregon @ California-Los Angeles (ABC): Oregon should win on all around talent, but it might be weird that such a big game kick off at 12:30 local time. It should be a fun watch regardless, but I’m picking the Ducks.
  • Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (FOX): We’re heading for 11-0 vs. 11-0 in Bedlam, aren’t we? Iowa State is a bit of a “failure to launch” team this year, and while I hope they get it going here, I don’t think they will.
  • Louisiana State @ Mississippi (CBS): Coach O’s on the way Out. It feels like they already did everything they could for him getting the big win at Florida last weekend. I suspect Ole Miss is going to put up many points on them.
  • Clemson @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): Pitt’s favored here, and I favor them too. That said, Clemson’s defense is still pretty good, and a good defense is the one thing Kenny Pickett still hasn’t really faced yet this year.
  • Maryland @ Minnesota (ESPN2): Gophers?
  • Brigham Young @ Washington State (FS1): BYU’s on a bit of a skid, but Wazzu just canned like half of their coaching staff—including the head coach—for not getting the COVID vaccine. I like the Stormin’ Mormons here.
  • Western Michigan @ Toledo (CBSS): Rockets?
  • Colorado @ California (Pac12): … Cal?
  • New Mexico @ Wyoming (Stadium): Wyoming
  • Miami @ Ball State (ESPN+)
  • Buffalo @ Akron (ESPN+)
  • Rice @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • East Carolina @ Houston (ESPNU): Cougers!
  • Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Bulldogs!
  • Boston College @ Louisville (ACCN): Golden Eagles!
  • Liberty @ North Texas (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Tennessee @ Alabama (“Third Saturday in October”; ESPN): Bama!
  • Nevada @ Fresno State (FS2): Fresno.
  • San Diego State @ Air Force (CBSS): This could be a sneaky good game. The Aztecs are legitimately good on defense, and Air Force has a funky triple option-style offense. I think I like the Aztecs though.
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Louisiana Tech (Stadium): Meep meep!
  • South Alabama @ Louisiana-Monroe (espn3.com)
  • Temple @ South Florida (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Florida International (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Southern California @ Notre Dame (NBC): USC could well play up to this game, but I think Notre Dame makes that moot early.
  • Ohio State @ Indiana (ABC): Buckeyes are rolling now, even if they shouldn’t really be ranked ahead of the Oregon team that beat them.
  • North Carolina State @ Miami (ESPN2): NC State.
  • West Virginia @ Texas Christian (ESPNU): No clue. WVU?
  • South Carolina @ Texas A&M (SEC): TAMU.
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia (ACCN): So we needed a comeback against a pretty awful Duke team. While I acknowledge the conditions were super weird, didn’t do a whole lot to inspire confidence. I’m still essentially looking for reasons to look forward to the future of the program at the moment, but the results are still so inconsistent it’s hard to know what to make of it. We’ve ultimately got everything in front of us to erase those doubts, but the team will need to prove to us, and themselves, that they can do it.
  • Utah @ Oregon State (Pac12): Utah. Also, look below. No Pac-12 After Dark tonight, folks. And that’s a shame, because I probably will need something soothing after the Braves game.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 7

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Central Florida @ Cincinnati (ABC): This ordinarily is marquee match over in the AAC, but not this year. CIncy should win easily.
  • Auburn @ Arkansas (CBS): The Tigers just aren’t good enough to stand up to the whompin’.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas (FOX): Texas suffered a heartbreaker last week in Red River, but if they don’t let the disappointment carry over this week they should be able to crush Okie State’s party.
  • Florida @ Louisiana State (ESPN): This feels like after LSU got lucky last year the Gators will win easily and get Coach O in even more trouble.
  • Nebraska @ Minnesota (ESPN2): This feels a tad like an anxiety bowl? The Huskers just want to win a close game for once, and the Gophers seem somewhat stagnant this year. I’m taking Nebraska for some reason.
  • Michigan State @ Indiana (FS1): It feels like the year never got started for Indiana, whereas Michigan State seems somewhat ascendant and maybe even… fun? I’ll take Sparty here.
  • Tulsa @ South Florida (ESPNU): Tulsa?
  • Texas A&M @ Missouri (SEC): Mizzou is… well, those SEC East championships feel like they didn’t even happen. TAMU all the way.
  • Rutgers @ Northwestern (BTN): Rut… gers?
  • Yale @ Connecticut (CBSS)
  • Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPN+)

12:30: Duke @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): We barely beat Duke last weekend and I know UVA isn’t good this year but I can’t in good conscience pick Duke over them.

2:00: Ball State @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN+)

2:30: Akron @ Miami (ESPN+)

3:00: Troy @ Texas State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Purdue @ Iowa (ABC): Iowa did well to knock out Penn State’s quarterback last weekend, as that was likely the difference in the game. They don’t need to do any of that to smother Purdue and win this one.
  • Kentucky @ Georgia (CBS): I want to believe that Kentucky can keep this fun, but this feels like the Arkansas game all over again. Even down to UGA shutting them out.
  • Brigham Young @ Baylor (ESPN): BYU probably picked a bad time to play the ascendant Bears.
  • Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech (ESPN2): The other ACC team that lost to a MAC team looks like possibly the best team in the conference. Great. Awesome. They’ll probably at least beat the Hokies at least.
  • Kent State @ Western Michigan (FS2): Kent State looks good? We’ll see if they’re good enough to win a MAC road game after going 0-3 in their paycheck away games though.
  • Toledo @ Central Michigan (CBSS): I don’t think the Chippewas will have an issue here.
  • Miami @ North Carolina (ACCN): Here’s a disappointment bowl! UNC’s best win so far is over UVA or Duke. Miami’s list even more dire, so I guess I’ll go with the Tarheels.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Southern Mississippi (Stadium): Southern Miss seems a bit lost in the wilderness right now.
  • Arizona @ Colorado (Pac12): Well, most folks should be glad they don’t get Pac-12 network so that’s there no chance they’ll be exposed to this game. These teams are a combined 1-9 on the year so far, but Arizona’s especially bad defense figures to let the Buffs take this one at home.
  • Western Kentucky @ Old Dominion (espn3.com)
  • Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (SEC): Is South Carolina a bad enough team to allow Vandy to win a conference game? Maybe! But probably not.
  • Texas Tech @ Kanas (ESPN+)

6:00: Rice @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Alabama @ Mississippi State (ESPN): I would not want to play Bama this week.
  • Utah State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): I’ll take the Aggies here.
  • Colorado State @ New Mexico (Stadium): Rams.
  • Liberty @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Texas Christian @ Oklahoma (ABC): TCU’s lack of an identity means there’s way I can even remotely consider them having a chance to win here.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas State (“Farmageddon”; ESPN2): K-State’s down a quarterback, but it’s a bit of a lost season for the Cyclones. I’ll still take them though.
  • Stanford @ Washington State (ESPNU): Stanford beat Oregon and then immediately faceplanted and lost 28-10 to Arizona State. I’ll take Wazzu here.
  • Mississippi @ Tennessee (SEC): Tennessee is better this year, but I can’t see them scoring enough to beat Ole Miss.
  • North Carolina State @ Boston College (ACCN): Both these teams are among the better teams in the ACC, which a bit of cognitive dissonance for me but it’s there. I’ll take NCSU though.

8:00: Army @ Wisconsin (BTN): Army will keep this close just from possessing the ball and running the clock, but I’m sure they can pip Wisky.

8:30: California-Los Angeles @ Washington (FOX): This should’ve been a marquee game for the Pac-12, but alas, UCLA should be a solid favorite.

9:00:

  • Air Force @ Boise State (FS1): Both of these teams just notched big wins, but I figure Boise will keep the momentum going,
  • Louisiana Tech @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)

10:00: Arizona State @ Utah (ESPN): I’m still coming to grips with “ranked Arizona State”, and I suspect they will continue to be after this.

10:30: Hawaii @ Nevada (CBSS): Nevada all the way here.