Category Archives: college football

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 3

Leave a reply

Hotter and fresher than even a Little Ceaser’s pizza, you can get the latest predictions here.

Thanks to some upsets last weekend, I only needed two 5-7 teams this time (as opposed to four last time). With 77 teams having already clinched eligibility, that means I don’t need a lot of upsets to get there. Let’s take a quick look at every game involving a 5-6 team heading into this weekend:

  • Oregon State (5-6) @ Boise State: The Beavers won’t be favored in this one, but Boise has gotten by with closer margins the past few weeks. For now, I don’t have them in.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (5-6): Wisconsin is a slight favorite here, but I don’t have them in.
  • Kansas (5-6) @ Baylor: KU’s vastly improved play the past few weeks isn’t completely reflected in SP+ yet, so I still have them winding up 5-7. It absolutely will not shock me if they win.
  • Louisiana @ Louisiana-Monroe (5-6): hard to see ULM pulling this off.
  • North Texas (5-6) @ Temple: UNT is absolutely favored here and I have them in.
  • Eastern Michigan (5-6) @ Western Michigan (5-6): The Michigan MAC Trophy and bowl eligibility are on the line here.
  • Coastal Carolina (5-6) @ Georgia State: CCU is absolutely favored here and I have them in.
  • Auburn (5-6) @ Alabama: this would be hilarious, but no.
  • Rutgers @ Michigan State (5-6): SP+ has Rutgers as about a 6 point favorite, but the Spartans could absolutely win this one.
  • North Carolina State (5-6) @ North Carolina: the Pack would have to spoil Mack Brown’s swan song, so I don’t see it.
  • Texas Christian @ Cincinnati (5-6): SP+ has Cincy as about an 8 point underdog, so I don’t have them in. But they could absolutely win this game.
  • Virginia (5-6) @ Virginia Tech (5-6): self-explanatory.
  • New Mexico (5-6) @ Hawaii: SP+ has the Lobos as an underdog, so I don’t have them in, but they could absolute win this game.

By my count, that’s 5 very plausible upsets. So we could possibly have too many bowl eligible teams. It’s happened before, and a new bowl game was invented on the spot to accommodate them, so it figures that it will happen again.

We’ll know how everything falls after this weekend, which makes the predictions next week one of the most important I do.

This Week in College Football: Week 14

Leave a reply

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

7:00:

  • Toledo @ Akron (ESPN2): Toledo has scuffed a bit this season, but I don’t see them having trouble here.
  • Buffalo @ Kent State (ESPN+)

Thursday

2:00: Tuskegee @ Alabama State (ESPNU)

7:30: Memphis @ Tulane (ESPN): What may well be the defacto AAC title game promises to have stakes. This is a game Memphis team for sure, but Tulane has looked every bit the part of a G5 spoiler for the playoff. I like the Green Wave here.

Friday

Noon:

  • Navy @ East Carolina (ESPN): ECU is better than anyone expected, but I think Navy will still handle them.
  • Oklahoma State @ Colorado (ABC): The Buffs lost last week, but the Pokes are a good “get right” matchup for just about anyone this season.
  • Minnesota @ Wisconsin (CBS): The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe should be feisty this time. These teams both are doing their best impersonate of the mediocre Big Ten West teams of the past. I like the Gophers a bit here, but both are taking some serious losing streaks into this one.
  • Oregon State @ Boise State (FOX): Good on the Beavs for beating a tired Wazzu last weekend, but provided Ashton Jeanty is healthy I think Boise is well prepared to split the season series against teams from Oregon.
  • Miami @ Bowling Green (ESPNU): This is a battle of two of the three best teams in the MAC. I think Bowling Green holds serve at home, but this could be the game to watch in this time slot.
  • Ball State @ Ohio (CBSS): Barring an upset here, the Bobcats are heading to Detroit next weekend to face the winner of the above game. Get some Black Friday MACtion, y’all.

3:30:

  • Utah State @ Colorado State (FS1): The Rams had the temerity to lose to Fresno, so now they’ve got a Mountain West loss are probably on the outside looking in at the Mountain West title game. They should still handle the Aggies, though.
  • Mississippi State @ Mississippi (“Egg Bowl”; ABC): It’s a bummer that this is no longer the Thanksgiving night game, but let’s face it, this year’s edition wouldn’t have exactly been appointment television.
  • Liberty @ Sam Houston State (CBSS): Liberty losing to Kennesaw is right up there with Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois in terms of bizarre upsets this year. But yeah, for the most part the Libs shouldn’t really have trouble with anyone else in Conference USA.
  • Texas State @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

4:00: Stanford @ San Jose State (“Bill Walsh Legacy Game”; CBS): I like San Jose to win this one, straight up. It boggles the mind that the Cardinal would ever head down 101 to SJSU, but between them being very, very mediocre to bad and coming off a dispiriting loss to Cal, I don’t like their chances here.

7:30:

  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”; ABC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Nebraska @ Iowa (NBC): Nebraska finally got the monkey off their back and beat Wisconsin last weekend to get bowl eligible. Good on them, because the odds they’d do it against this cromulent Iowa outfit were pretty low.

8:00: Utah @ Central Florida (FOX): Neither of these teams are especially good. Hopefully this is still within reach for either team after the 7:30 games wrap up. If I had to pick someone here, I’d probably go with UCF, since they can actually play offense.

This Week in College Football: Week 13

Leave a reply

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong. (Also apologies to the MACtion games that already happened this week.)

Thursday

7:30: North Carolina State @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): I’m not entirely sure how we beat Miami two years in a row. It’s not that both were due to bizarre Mario Cristobal clock decisions (though by golly he tried this time around). At any rate, this is more even contest that is sandwiched between last week’s season-defining win and next week’s… well, you know. I personally have fond memories of Thursday night home games, and I think this will be more of a watch than whatever dreck the NFL is shoving out this week (for the record, it’s Steelers-Browns, so yeah, watch this instead). It’ll be interesting to see if the bye week did us any good. We made the two-QB thing work against Miami, but I’m pretty sure if there’s some way Haynes King can actually throw the ball again it’d improve our chances.

Friday

7:00: Temple @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN2): It’s been an adjustment for UTSA after Frank Harris’s move to the sidelines, but they’re figured it out the past couple of weeks against some of the other better AAC schools. Temple shouldn’t pose an obstacle.

8:00: Purdue @ Michigan State (FOX): No one is making you watch this. Purdue is possibly the worst team in the Power 4, and while the Spartans are not great themselves, this shouldn’t be close.

10:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ San Jose State (FS1): This game promises some fireworks. The Rebels are freshly ranked, but SJSU is not a pushover (at least, when not facing Ashton Jeanty). I like UNLV here, but this should be a fun Friday night in San Jose. (Might be kind of wet, too.)

Bowl Predictions 2024: Week 2

Leave a reply

They’re hot and ready here. Let’s actually talk about the process a little bit this week.

Step 1 is to project out each team’s record. To make it slightly less vibes-based, I use SP+ to project each team’s remaining matchups. I ignore any team with 8 or more losses, as there’s no chance for them to make a bowl game. Step 2 is to project the playoff. This was hard when it was the BCS, slightly harder when it was the 4-team playoff, and now with 12? All bets are off, but I’m trying my best. This is also why the new projections tend to come out after the new rankings, as I use the current rankings to try to gain some insight into the Committee’s thinking. Almost certainly the most controversial choice I made was putting Indiana in over Tennessee. If what everyone thinks will happen to the Hoosiers happens this weekend, next week’s ranking will be very useful to determine if they still have a shot.

Step 3 is to start filling in the bowls based on the non-playoff teams. I start with the Power 4 and the zombie Pac-12, as their tie-ins are slightly less to the whims of what ESPN decides to do. After that, I start filling in the G5 teams as needed. The conference matchups you see on the page are more or less… guidelines, and generally speaking for any ESPN Events-owned bowl just about anything can happen. This makes this process maddening, but I’ve been doing this since 1999 and I’m not going to stop now.

Step 4 is to then determine what, if any, backfill is needed. Right now the projected record leaves me 4 teams sort of the 6-6 mark. There’s no transitioning teams this season that will be bowl-eligible, so we go straight to APR ranking the projected 5-7 teams. That’s how Cincinnati, Central Florida, Virginia, and Boston College got in this week. It could well be different next week, as upsets tend to add more 6-6 teams.

As a reminder, I have no special insight into what anyone who is responsible for these games is actually thinking. I don’t really keep track of the accuracy of the projections because of this. It’s gotten harder over time, but it’s still a fun exercise.

Some quick sports-columnist-esque notes on the matchups:

  • Boise State’s best “win” is almost certainly going to be their 3-point less to Oregon back in September.
  • I don’t really love that 8 of the 12 spots are going to the Big Ten and SEC, and I love even less the change those conferences are shoving through to give themselves 4 autobids regardless. I don’t think the ACC and Big 12 are necessarily doomed to only get one team in each season (and I definitely think the Big 12 will be better next season).
  • The specific order of the CFP First Round matchups is more-or-less a guess, but I would guess if Oregon gets a late game, they will get one of the later slots. The main thing to watch is how the subcontracting with TNT goes, i.e., if ESPN gets to decide what to keep (because in that case, a Notre Dame home game would almost certainly be on ESPN).

That’s about it for now. Next week will be even more robust as more teams clinch eligibility and I only have to project out one game.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

Leave a reply

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Utah @ Colorado (FOX): It appears the Buffs are going to get away with it until further notice.
  • Texas @ Arkansas (ABC): This is an old Southwest Conference rivalry, though Texas doesn’t really want you to know this. Either way, I don’t think Arkansas has a chance to make this a rivalry again in this edition.
  • Clemson @ Pittsburgh (ESPN): If Clemson’s ballon was popped, then Pitt’s was destroyed by a large artillery shell. I suspect it’ll be easier for the Tigers to recover.
  • Tulane @ Navy (ESPN2): I think Tulane will just out-athelete Navy here.
  • Ohio State @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): The only reason to watch this is to see football played at Wrigley.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): Hilltoppers all the way here.
  • Liberty @ Massachusetts (ESPN+)

12:45: Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn (SEC): As much as I want to believe this overachieving ULM team could do this… I just can’t. Auburn isn’t this bad, right? Right?

1:00: Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (ESPN+)

1:30: Murray State @ Kentucky (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Mercer @ Alabama (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Florida Atlantic @ Temple (ESPN+)

2:30: Michigan State @ Illinois (FS1): I’d prefer to bot think about this game. Illini.

3:00:

  • Syracuse @ California (The CW): We’re getting down to the short end of the season, and despite the abysmal luck Cal has had they have a very good chance to make a bowl game. It’d really help their cause to get this one. I imagine though no one over In Berkeley is super crazy about an 11:30 am local time kickoff, though.
  • Hawaii @ Utah State (Team1Sports)
  • Sam Houston State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Florida (ABC): Possibly the biggest “not-actually-a-rivalry” rivalry in the SEC is still on the schedule. I think this is kind of a coin flip. I’m taking LSU but if Florida has their starting QB they have a puncher’s chance.
  • Virginia @ Notre Dame (NBC): Virginia is having a nice little season. The Irish will break up the party, at least this week.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Purdue (CBS): Penn State’s position as the Third Best Team In The Big Ten is surprisingly durable even after expansion. Suffice it to say, they won’t have any issues here.
  • Boston College @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): If you told me you’d have SMU leading the ACC in Mid-Novembet, I’d call you a liar. I’m still not convinced by them, and BC could well knock them off, but I’m going to stop short of saying that’ll happen.
  • Louisville @ Stanford (ACCN): Whereas I can guarantee the Cardinals will beat the Cardinal.
  • Oregon State @ Air Force (CBSS): Oregon State is really taking on the chin this year, and normally I’d be concerned about what the Falcons would throw at them. With this year’s edition of Air Force, not so much.
  • South Florida @ Charlotte (ESPN+)

4:00:

  • Nebraska @ Southern California (FOX): I am completely devoid of opinions about these teams. I mean, I definitely have thoughts about the programs but when it comes to the 2024 Cornhuskers and Trojans it’s just “file not found”.  They’re not good. They’re not awful. They’re just there. I’ll take the Huskers I guess.
  • Baylor @ West Virginia (ESPN2): See above. Is everyone outside of like BYU and K-State interchangeable in the Big 12 this season? It sure feels that way sometimes. I’ll take Baylor here.
  • James Madison @ Old Dominion (“Royal Rivalry”; ESPNU): JMU is a slight favorite, to which I would say: why? I’m definitely taking the Monarchs over the Dukes here.
  • Troy @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

4:15: Missouri @ South Carolina (SEC): Gamecocks, please save us from the idea of Mizzou being a there near the playoff. Please.

5:00: Arkansas State @ Georgia State (ESPN+)

6:00: Rutgers @ Maryland (FS1): I feel as though the schedule is taunting me at this point. Surely there’s some payoff below this? Either way, I’m taking Rutgers here.

7:00:

  • Arizona State @ Kansas State (ESPN): Okay, okay, this is getting more interesting. To be clear, I like K-State here but ASU is at least capable of making this interesting.
  • Boise State @ San Jose State (CBSS): Here’s your low-key game of the day. The setting may not make it seem this way, but the Silicon Valley Spartans are one of the better teams left in Boise’s schedule. Can SJSU contain Jeanty? Eh, I doubt it. But it should be interesting to watch.
  • South Alabama @ Louisiana (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Oregon @ Wisconsin (NBC): Ducks. Next!
  • Tennessee @ Georgia (ABC): And here we are. This is the game of the day. The thing is that I, at least, have come up with a fair bit of SEC fatigue. At the present moment, the SEC and Big Ten are demanding a gaurunteed four bids each into the playoff. This is ridiculous, obviously, but the problem is the fait accompli of it all, as barring a miracle this is going to happen anyway. Ah, well, go Vawls.
  • New Mexico State @ Texas A&M (SEC): I’m writing this from a Waymo and it’s late. Aggies! Er, the ones from Texas. Next!

8:00:

  • Cincinnati @ Iowa State (FOX): Ah, we’re right back to the dire part of the schedule. I’ve cooled off on the Cyclones, but I think they’re still good enough to win here. This may be sneaky fun game, though.
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Memphis (ESPN2): Tigers. Next!
  • Wake Forest @ North Carolina (ACCN): It’s been a lost season for the Heels, but they shouldn’t have a problem here.

9:30: Washington State @ New Mexico (FS1): Wazzu should continue to roll through the remaining portion of their MWC schedule.

10:15: Kansas @ Brigham Young (ESPN): Kansas appears to be back, but I’m not sure they’re going to be able to affect American’s most “getting away with it” team (now that Miami finally didn’t get away with it last week).

10:30: San Diego State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): UNLV rolls.