Category Archives: college football

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Miami @ Pittsburgh (ABC): Okay, so Miami is going to win this game… unless the Pitt Superweapon has heretofore unknown multi-week properties. This is mostly because when Pat Narduzzi said he didn’t care if Pitt lost 100-0 to Notre Dame as long as they won the next two games, he apparently really meant it. We’ll see what happens, provided we’re not all too busy paying attention to the next game on this list.
  • Ohio State @ Michigan (“The Game”; FOX): You have probably heard, but just in case you haven’t: Michigan has won four in a row in this rivalry. The most galling example was last year’s, where an unranked Michigan won 13-10. Sure, Ohio State certainly had bigger goals in mind (they did, after all, win a national title), but it still sure seemed like that Ryan Day and company seemed to think the best way to beat Michigan was… to play down them. So, in a similiar sentiment to last year’s post, Ohio State is going to win, but it’ll be very funny if they once again come up short.
  • Texas Tech @ West Virginia (ESPN): I don’t see anyway that WVU can slow down Texas Tech.
  • Colorado @ Kansas State (FS1): Here’s the scores in each of Colorado’s last four games, all losses: 53-7, 52-17, 29-22, 42-17.
  • Houston @ Baylor (TNT): It’s probably not great for either of these teams that I still have no idea what to make of either… at the end of the regular season. Baylor seems worryingly close to the “q-word”, which makes me lean Houston, but still.
  • Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): Cyclones all the way here.
  • Ball State @ Miami (CBSS): I’ll take Miami here.
  • Clemson @ South Carolina (“Palmetto Bowl”; SECN): Either this will be the end-cap to an extremely disappointing season for the Gamecocks, or it’ll make the whole thing worth it. I suspect the former.
  • Kentucky @ Louisville (“Governor’s Cup”; ACCN): I still think Louisville is at least a half-decent team, which usually means the beef it in this rivalry.
  • Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
  • East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • Central Connecticut @ Rhode Island (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Harvard @ Villanova (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Yale @ Youngstown State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:00:

  • Central Florida @ Brigham Young (ESPN2): BYU will hit UCF early and often, cementing an extremely disappointing homecoming for Scott Frost that will leave the Knights with more questions than answers.
  • Texas-El Paso @ Delaware (ESPN+)
  • Florida International @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
  • Lamar @ Abilene Christian (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Drake @ South Dakota (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • New Hampshire @ South Dakota State (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • Illinois State @ Southeastern Louisiana (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)
  • North Dakota @ Tennessee Tech (NCAA Division I First Round; ESPN+)

1:30: Georgia Southern @ Marshall (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Georgia State @ Old Dominion (ESPN+)
  • Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State (ESPN+)
  • Southern vs. Grambling State (Bayou Classic @ New Orleans, LA; NBC)

2:30: Arkansas State @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Boston College @ Syracuse (The CW): This is nominally a rivalry. At any rate, BC has probably their best actual chance at a win against a depleted Syracuse that has lost 7 in a row. I’ll go ahead and make it 8.
  • Middle Tennessee State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)
  • South Alabama @ Texas State (ESPN+)
  • Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana (“Battle on the Bayou”; ESPN+)
  • Alabama-Birmingham @ Tulsa (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Louisiana State @ Oklahoma (ABC): The Sooners figure to put an exclamation point on an excellent season of the ugliest football imaginable. My final score guess is something like 13-6 that’s never in doubt.
  • Oregon @ Washington (CBS): While I still miss their actual in-state rivalries, it’s hard to argue with this one taking the spot. While the Ducks are probably in the playoff regardless of the result, I’d advise them to take care of business against a UDub team that is certainly going to be game at home.
  • Cincinnati @ Texas Christian (FOX): Cincinnati is good, outside of the part where they’ve seemingly lost three in a row, and possibly their mojo. That adds a bit more intrigue to this game that it probably deserves, and TCU is rolling in fresh off an upset of the previously ranked Houston Cougars. I consider this one a coin flip, so let’s go with the Frogs.
  • Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (ESPN): For possibly the first time I can remember in nearly three decades of watching college football, Vandy is the favorite here. It’s not like Vandy has been totally helpless in the past decade. Yes, they’ve lost the last six in a row, but before that they’d won 5 of 7. This isn’t a plucky upstart of a Vanderbilt team, either. That said, I just sort like the Vols at home? I’d love to be wrong, though.
  • Wisconsin @ Minnesota (FS1): Luke Fickell got a tad more than the “dreaded vote of confidence”… and then the Badgers played their best game of the season against Illinois. If Wisconsin can do that again, they can get the axe back. I like their chances.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): Turns out, Penn State is still pretty good. They should roll over Rutgers and make a bowl that seemed pretty unlikely after their crashout.
  • Missouri @ Arkansas (“Battle Line Rivalry”; SECN): Mizzou, by lot.
  • Wake Forest @ Duke (ACCN): Wake, please just end our collective misery of caring about Duke football. That’s all I ask.
  • Kennesaw State @ Liberty (CBSS): Go Owls.
  • Army @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Troy @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)

3:45: James Madison @ Coastal Carolina (ESPNU): I don’t see anything here that will stop JMU’s romp through the Sun Belt.

4:30: Florida State @ Florida (“Sunshine Showdown”; ESPN2): I know this game has been weird the past few years, but I’m not sure there’s been a more juiceless version, as possibly the only way it could’ve had less, er, juice, is if FSU had wound up firing Mike Norvell. As is, FSU probably should win but I won’t be surprised by an result.

6:30: Oregon State @ Washington State (The CW): Wazzu may be one of the most snakebit teams in the country. (I mean, in addition to all of the ways both of these teams got screwed by the latest round of realignment.) The Cougs are 5-6, with what is turning out to be a pretty good win over San Diego State. They also have four losses by 4 points or less, all on the road. In what is the second leg of the Pac-12 Championship, I like them here.

7:00:

  • Virginia Tech @ Virginia (“Commonwealth Cup”; ESPN): The Hokies four-game winning streak in this rivalry figures to end here.
  • Maryland vs. Michigan State (@Detroit, MI; FS1): This is a classic “stoppable force vs. moveable object” game: the Terps have lost seven straight, and the Spartans have lost eight straight. Suffice it to say, I have no clue how to project a winner in this one. I guess Sparty has a slight edge? Woof.
  • Rice @ South Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Alabama @ Auburn (“Iron Bowl”; ABC): Okay, let’s point out all of the things in Auburn’s favor: it’s at night and in Jordan-Hare. Uh… I think that’s about it. And, look, that’s certainly notched some bizarre victories for the Tigers in this game. That said, I can’t really take that and say that the Tigers will be able to overcome all their disadvantages to claim a win for the first time since 2019.
  • Northwestern @ Illinois (FOX): I think Northwestern stands a fair chance in this game, especially since Illinois just let a previously moribund Wisconsin get an easy win. Still picking Illinois, but this could be a good one.
  • California-Los Angeles @ Southern California (NBC): UCLA has lost four straight, and none were particularly close. USC will  make it five straight.
  • Charlotte @ Tulane (ESPNU): Tulane is win-and-in into the American title game, and uh, yeah, they can definitely finish the job here.
  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCN): Speaking of finishing the job, I think NC State knows what to do here.

8:00: Southern Methodist @ California (ESPN2): SMU isn’t as good as last year, but… they’re 8-3 and 6-1 in the ACC. Cal was so tired of being inconsistent (and losing to inferior Stanford teams) that they finally fired their coach, which isn’t a good omen going into this one. I like the Ponies here.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Nevada (“Battle for Nevada”; CBSS): Nevada has reeled off a two game winning streak after spending of the season looking like one of the worst teams in FBS. Not bad, but I’m not sure it’ll matter much here.

10:30:

  • Notre Dame @ Stanford (ESPN): Good on Stanford for getting the axe back, as that might be their best defense against what the Irish are probably going to do to them.
  • Fresno State @ San Jose State (FS1): Has anyone else noticed that San Jose State is kinda bad? Fresno has not been amazing this season, but they figure to win the battle of the valley schools pretty handily.

11:00: Wyoming @ Hawaii (Spectrum): Once again, this is the last full Saturday of the season. I hope you this aloha from Hawaii.

 

This Week in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Tuesday

4:30: Bowling Green @ Massachusetts (ESPNU): So this game already started, and while UMass is working on making it interesting, let’s talk about something more exciting than whether UMass will go 0-12 or not: this will be the 1000th post on this website! Not bad for something I started right before my final semester of college.

7:30: Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN2): WMU has already clinched the Michigan MAC Trophy, so to much is on the line here but pride. WMU’s defense has been one of the stingiest in football this year, and EMU has sort of returned to their historical strugglebus selves. I like the Broncos here.

Thursday

7:30: Navy @ Memphis (ESPN): Memphis has had a bit of a November swoon, but if you’re going to lose two in a row in this conference, you could do worse than losing to Tulane and East Carolina. The Midshipmen have continued to hold their own, and most importantly they still only have a single conference loss, so a win keeps them alive for the American title game.

Friday

Noon:

  • Iowa @ Nebraska (CBS): We start Black Friday action in Omaha, and I don’t really see much of a path for Nebraska to gut one out against Iowa.
  • Mississippi @ Mississippi State (“Egg Bowl”; ABC): The only reason there’s any intrigue in this Egg Bowl at all is because it’s in Starkville. But for the real Egg Bowl shenanigans to happen, we need to get this game back on Thanksgiving night. Otherwise, the intrigue is all off the field for the continued saga of “Where will Lane Kiffin be next season?”
  • Utah @ Kansas (ESPN): Obviously Utah’s rush defense is a bit sus, though it’s still notable that they nearly gave up 500 yards rushing to K-State and… won. I don’t think KU can run it like that, and that the Utes are going to be okay here.
  • Ohio @ Buffalo (ESPNU): Buffalo’s played some of the better MAC teams, but generally has come up short. I expect much the same here.
  • Kent State @ Northern Illinois (CBSS): Kent getting to 5 wins would be something of a good season for a team mostly known for trying to bag as much cash in their OOC schedule as possible. NIU is fleeing the MAC for the Mountain West next year. I’ll pick Kent just because.

3:00: Air Force @ Colorado State (FS1): Colorado State has lost five straight, and I’m going to guess they’ll make it six.

3:30:

  • Georgia vs. Georgia Tech (“Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” @ Atlanta, GA; ABC): TO HELL WITH GEORGIA
  • Temple @ North Texas (ESPN): The Mean Green boast the meanest offense in the country, and I expect that to hold here against a relatively game Temple.
  • San Diego State @ New Mexico (CBSS): At this point, perhaps the most baffling result on the Aztec’s schedule isn’t the 34-0 win against Cal, but the 36-13 loss to Wazzu and 38-6 loss to Hawaii. I’d expect them to hold down the Lobos similar to the non-Hawaii point totals they’ve allowed in their past six MWC games: 10, 0, 7, 7, and 3.

4:00: Boise State @ Utah State (CBS): Boise seemed to round into shape against Colorado State last week, but the Rams are dreadful and the Utes are, well not. This could be a good, close game. I’ll still lean Boise but this is a coin toss.

7:30:

  • Indiana @ Purdue (NBC): Meanwhile, the only thing that will be competitive in this game is the coin toss. Hoosiers, by a lot.
  • Texas A&M @ Texas (ABC): Maybe the Aggies will stumble a bit in Austin, but Texas just doesn’t seem sharp enough to be able to pull this one off. Also, this really wouldn’t be a chaos result even if the Longhorns win. TAMU is in the playoff regardless, and this would give Texas a boost but I’d think they’d a lot of other results to go their way.

9:00: Arizona @ Arizona State (“Duel in the Desert”; FOX): Out west, the battle for the Territorial Cup seems like a great way to cap off Black Friday. Both teams are coming in hot, but I just like the Sun Devils a bit better, especially at home. But this figures to be a fun one.

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 4

A lo, the upsets have happened, so I was only three teams short. Here’s the latest.

It sure looks like we’re going to see five SEC teams in the playoff. What no one really seems to be talking about is the knock-on effect on the SEC’s bowl tie-ins. Obviously, I don’t think the conference itself is too worried about this, but the folks in Nashville, Charlotte, and Memphis might be. There’s multiple tiers of SEC games, roughly summarized as:

  1. the Citrus Bowl
  2. the Texas, Gator, Music City, Reliaquest, Mayo, and Liberty Bowls
  3. the Gasparilla and Birmingham Bowls

I have Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Oklahoma making the playoff. The only other bowl eligible SEC teams I project to have are Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU, and Mizzou. So that’s only four teams for the group of 6. My suspicion is that the American’s group of top teams is going to to benefit from this. (Especially Memphis.) And of course, there’s still a chance in the rivalry games this weekend: Kentucky, Auburn, and Miss State can get to 6-6 with wins over their rivals. Stay tuned.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 13

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Missouri @ Oklahoma (ABC): This looked like a cracker of a matchup a couple months ago, but with Mizzou’s quarterback situation so unsettled I’m not sure how they’re going to prevail against a Brent Veneables defense.
  • Rutgers @ Ohio State (FOX): We’ll finally have something to talk about with Ohio State next week, at least.
  • Miami @ Virginia Tech (ESPN): The Hokies are giving the ol’ college try, and maybe they’ll be excited to have new head coach James Franklin in the house. But I don’t think Miami will particularly care about any of that.
  • Louisville @ Southern Methodist (ESPN2): Louisville has fallen off a bit from their high point, which means it’s probably time to upset an ACC contender again.
  • Kansas @ Iowa State (FS1): A bit of a lost season for both teams, I like the ‘Clones I guess.
  • Minnesota @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; BTN): Northwestern is 0-fer at Wrigley Field the past two seasons, and I’m not sure why it’d change here.
  • Harvard @ Yale (“The Game”; ESPNU)
  • Delaware @ Wake Forest (ACCN): Wake all the way here.
  • Tulsa @ Army (CBSS): Army all the way here.
  • Samford @ Texas A&M (SECN+)

12:45: Charlotte @ Georgia (SECN)

1:00:

  • Baylor @ Arizona (TNT): In more Big 12 teams suffering disappointing seasons, it’d been a weird one for both of these teams. I sorta like Zona.
  • Washington State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
  • Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)

2:00:

  • Nevada @ Wyoming (MWN)
  • Mercer @ Auburn (SECN+)
  • Eastern Illinois @ Alabama (SECN+)
  • Ball State @ Toledo (ESPN+)
  • Missouri State @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)

2:30: Marshall @ Appalachian State (ESPN+)

3:00:

  • Liberty @ Louisiana Tech (ESPN+)
  • New Mexico State @ Texas-El Paso (“Battle of I-10”; ESPN+)
  • Sam Houston State @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
  • Connecticut @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
  • South Florida @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

3:30:

  • Arkansas @ Texas (ABC): Texas is having a weird year, but it’s not weird enough to lose to Arkansas at home.
  • Southern California @ Oregon (CBS): One of the two biggest games of the day is in Eugene, OR. USC tries to prove they’re “for real” against the best team they’ve played outside of Notre Dame. Oregon needs to stay at 1 loss for many purposes, including potentially hosting a playoff game and, in the worst case scenario, playing in the playoff at all. USC gives themselves an outside chance at a playoff spot with a win. So there’s a lot on the line. For my money, I think the Ducks are still more talented and a little more tested.
  • Syracuse @ Notre Dame (NBC): Notre Dame’s romp through their schedule figures to continue unabated.
  • Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (ESPN): This is a bit of a trap game for Vanderbilt (let’s marvel that we can talk about Vandy having trap games instead of being the trap game). Kentucky remains feisty as ever, winners of three straight and with a couple of scares on the schedule. This is not a gimme for Vandy, but they’re definitely still the favorite.
  • Michigan State @ Iowa (FS1): A rudderless Michigan State doesn’t stand a chance in Iowa City.
  • Duke @ North Carolina (ACCN): Duke arrives losers of two straight, one of which was to UConn. UNC has, believe it or not, gotten better. Yeah they lost to Wake last week, but that’s still understandable. Duke is still a better team here, but I won’t be surprised if Carolina at least finds themselves in a position to win.
  • Jacksonville State @ Florida International (CBSS): FIU is going to lose this game, but can we bring back the “Sundowner” branding permanently? Thanks.
  • East Carolina @ Texas-San Antonio (ESPN+)
  • Southern Mississippi @ South Alabama (ESPN+)

3:45: Tulane @ Temple (ESPNU): As noted elsewhere, most of the American contenders don’t play each other, but they all play Temple. Weird. Anyway, assuming that was intentional, Tulane should be fine here.

4:00:

  • Texas Christian @ Houston (FOX): Houston is kind of quietly having a very good season, outside of the weird loss to West Virginia. TCU hasn’t been able to do much of anything, so outside of another WVU-esque effort, the Cougs should be fine.
  • Kansas State @ Utah (ESPN2): K-State normally is the kind of team that can hang physically with just about anyone, but there really seem to be three tiers in the Big 12 this season. In the first tier, it’s Texas Tech. In the second, it’s BYU and Utah. And then… it’s everyone else. So the Utes will be fine here.
  • Michigan @ Maryland (BTN): What’s going on in College Park is just sad at this point. It’s hard to see how they’re going to be able to arrest the slide and avoid turning 4-0 into 4-8.
  • Oklahoma State @ Central Florida (ESPN+)
  • Georgia State @ Troy (ESPN+)

4:15: Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina (SECN): Gamecocks will be fine here.

4:30: Furman @ Clemson (The CW)

5:00: Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas State (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • Nebraska @ Pennsylvania State (NBC): The thing about Penn State is that they’re still, you know, pretty talented. Last week, they were able to arrest the slide and easily handle Michigan State. Nebraska is better than the Spartans, and they did bring reality back to UCLA in their last game. It’ll be Senior Day in Happy Valley, and they’re good enough to win on paper. I expect it to happen.
  • Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (ESPN): I’m not sure I remember the last time I was this wound up for a regular season game that wasn’t against you know who. Pitt comes in with a sensational new quarterback and defense that is stout as usual. We have got to take advantage of a sell-out crowd at home (and as a reminder, it’s the last true home game since next week is at the Benz) and have the defense figure out a way to get off the field on third downs. Do that, let the offense do their thing, and get this done.
  • Colorado State @ Boise State (FS1): I hear you about your concerns regarding Boise State’s offense (14 points the past two weeks), but I cannot in good conscience pick them to lose against this Colorado State team.
  • New Mexico @ Air Force (CBSS): New Mexico is kinda good. Air Force is not.

7:30:

  • Tennessee @ Florida (ABC): Tennessee hasn’t won in the Swamp since 2005. I think it’s about time.
  • North Texas @ Rice (ESPNU): Rice could drag North Texas down with them, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (BTN): Wisconsin followed up their sloppy, surprise upset of Washington with… well, they got what Indiana does to almost everyone. I don’t expect much different here.
  • California @ Stanford (“The Big Game”; ACCN): Cal has possibly the most exciting quarterback in the ACC, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (better known as just JKS). Note that I said exciting and not things like “consistent” or “one of the best”. JKS and his team perhaps embody “All Coastal Chaos” more than any other team. They inflated Virginia’s resume, but then burst Louisville’s bubble. They got shut out by San Diego State. Stanford beat a snakebit Florida State team, and, well, doesn’t really have much else to show for it. It’s a rivalry game, so there’s still stakes, but it’s hard to see a way for Stanford to win here.

7:45: Western Kentucky @ Louisiana State (SECN): LSU will be fine here.

8:00:

  • Brigham Young @ Cincinnati (FOX): I don’t like Cincy’s chances here, but they should offer slightly more resistance than many of BYU’s opponents so far.
  • Arizona State @ Colorado (ESPN2): The Buffs are, as the kids would say, cooked.

10:30:

  • Washington @ California-Los Angeles (NBC): Reality has set in again for UCLA. I think the Huskies will be fine, as long as they don’t get caught looking forward to Oregon next week.
  • San Jose State @ San Diego State (FS1): Aztecs will be fine here.
  • Utah State @ Fresno State (CBSS): Fresno will be fine here.

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 3

I don’t have a lot to note here except I that I really hope the “5 SEC teams in the playoff” thing doesn’t come to pass. Based on my projections, I have Texas A&M playing Alabama in the SEC title game. I’d have to think that the only thing that would knock Bama out in that scenario is just getting completely walloped by the Aggies.

So… let’s hope for something weird next weekend in Jordan-Hare Stadium?