As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.
Noon:
- Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh (ABC): It’s the biggest game in a minute for Pitt, a team looking to top the ACC and shore-up their play-off bona fides. That said, while I can see the superweapon firing once again or just Pitt dragging the Irish down to their level, there’s stakes for them as well. Another loss takes Notre Dame out of the playoff, whereas right now with 2-losses they’re probably in. I expect them to see it through.
- Michigan @ Northwestern (@Chicago, IL; FOX): Northwestern, like conference-mate Purdue, isn’t as bad as we all thought they’d be, but there’s no way they win this game, right?
- South Carolina @ Texas A&M (ESPN): The Gamecocks have been a little snakebit this year, and this game doesn’t figure to change that.
- South Florida @ Navy (ESPN2): The Midshipmen had a great start to the season, but when the competition got real, the good vibes ended: they’ve lost two straight and this figures to make it three.
- Arizona @ Cincinnati (FS1): Zona has the profile of the teams that Cincy has beat this year (read: as in, the opposite of the teams they’ve lost to, Nebraska and Utah), so I like them here.
- Wisconsin @ Indiana (BTN): The Hoosiers don’t figure to need any late-game heroics in this one.
- Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (ESPNU): It’s not that Oklahoma State is 1-8, it’s how they’re 1-8. Their sole victory is over a middling FCS team. Against FBS competition, their closest margin was the 19-12 loss to Tulsa. The next closest is their most recent, a 17 point loss to Kansas. Everything else is a blowout. That doesn’t figure to change here.
- Air Force @ Connecticut (CBSS): Don’t look, but the Huskies are 7-3, beat Duke last week, and figure to be 9-3 by the end of the season. This team isn’t bad, that’s for sure.
- Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (ESPN+)
- Texas-San Antonio @ Charlotte (ESPN+)
1:30: Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky (SECN+)
2:00:
- Marshall @ Georgia State (ESPN+)
- North Texas @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)
3:00:
- Colorado State @ New Mexico (MWN)
- Texas-El Paso @ Missouri State (ESPN+)
3:30:
- Oklahoma @ Alabama (ABC): In the first of two playoff elimination games in the SEC, we’ve got the Sooners making their second ever visit to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Honestly, by all rights Bama should lose this game. The Tide are bizarrely inconsistent and it figures if anyone really can stuff their offense, it’ll be Brent Venables and company. I like OU straight up.
- Pennsylvania State @ Michigan State (CBS): The Land Grant Trophy (aka, the greatest ugly trophy in sports) is back up for grabs after taking a break last year. This feels like a bit of a last chance for Penn State to get one, with the Spartans having their own struggles and turmoil. I like the Nittany Lions here.
- Central Florida @ Texas Tech (FOX): The Texas Tech steamroller figures to continue unabated.
- North Carolina State @ Miami (ESPN): NC State also took a week off after beating us, and now there’s two forces at play. First, for the Canes, to stay even remotely relevant they need to take care of business against the rest of their schedule. Then there’s the forces that propel Dave Doren to 8-4 each season, which would require them to win all of their remaining games. Which force will prevail? I like Miami but let’s face it, anything can happen in this one.
- Virginia @ Duke (ESPN2): I hate to admit it, but the whole “4-loss Duke makes the playoff” thing is unfortunately feasible. This is also after I finally allowed that they might be good, which they took and then promptly lost to UConn. They’re probably going to win here, as UVA is heading in the wrong direction and their starting quarterback is out.
- Maryland @ Illinois (FS1): Maryland is, as the kids would say, “cooked”.
- Iowa @ Southern California (BTN): So USC has just sort of hung around. They beat Michigan but lost to the only other decent teams they’ve played, but they’re a 7-2 Power 2 team, so they’re going to start getting some chatter. That seems like the exact situation the Hawkeyes are built to completely shut down.
- Georgia Tech @ Boston College (ACCN): So… here we go again. Road game, one of the most hapless teams on our schedule, and still everything to play for. Out of the bye week, what I need to see is better, more consistent execution on offense, and just any sort of ability for our defense to get off the field. NC State had 10 drives two weeks ago, and scored on all but three of them (a punt and fumble in the second quarter, and then a punt with game out of reach at the end). Once again, just take care of business, and then get back to Atlanta. That’s all I ask.
- San Jose State @ Nevada (CBSS): The Wolf Pack are one of the worst teams in FBS, SJSU will be fine here.
- Middle Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky (ESPN+)
- Appalachian State @ James Madison (ESPN+)
- South Alabama @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
- Texas State @ Southern Mississippi (ESPN+)
4:00:
- Memphis @ East Carolina (ESPNU): ECU is feisty, and as the Tigers already demonstrated, they can get got (see: the UAB game). It seems a given the American will get the seat at the table for the G5 in the playoff, but that means contenders like Memphis need to take care of business down the stretch and be in the mix at the end.
- Florida Atlantic @ Tulane (ESPN+)
4:15: New Mexico State @ Tennessee (SECN): The Vols will be fine here.
4:30: North Carolina @ Wake Forest (The CW): Don’t look, but the fightin’ Bill Belichicks have won two straight. I think Wake is good enough to still take care of business, but this is no longer an automatic W.
5:00: Liberty @ Florida International (ESPN+)
6:00: Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern (ESPN+)
7:00:
- Florida @ Mississippi (ESPN): Ole Miss has been rolling outside of that one blip in Athens, GA. It seems like they’ve got things under control and cruising to a playoff spot. But that said, the Gators are just a bit too talented, and if for some reason history repeats itself in terms of the “bad November loss just when it seems like Lane is going to finally get out of Oxford”, this is certainly a candidate. Oh, and they lost to Florida last year in a similar spot.
- Utah @ Baylor (ESPN2): I don’t think Utah will get tripped up here, but Baylor and Dave Aranda are in a bit of a bad spot and they need a win, bad.
- Purdue @ Washington (FS1): Purdue: better than expected, but… and yeah I know Washington messed around and lost to Wisconsin last week. It be a shock if the Boilermakers win, but it may be a slight surprise.
- Utah State @ Nevada-Las Vegas (CBSS): I like UNLV slightly here, but this is going to be a tough out.
- Delaware @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
7:30:
- Texas @ Georgia (ABC): Here’s the other SEC Elimination Game, and this time I like the home team. Texas has more than a puncher’s chance, of course, especially if Arch really is getting better. Georgia can definitely be got by creative offensive playcalling (see: the first halves of their last two games against Alabama).
- California-Los Angeles @ Ohio State (NBC): There’s not much of a reason to think this one will be interesting.
- Virginia Tech @ Florida State (ACCN): If FSU can’t win this one, then I just don’t know anymore.
7:45: Mississippi State @ Missouri (SECN): Mizzou started out 5-0, and now has lost 3 of their last 4 as they got into the part of the schedule that featured opponents with pulses. What makes this tough is that while the Bulldogs aren’t very good, they’re also better than their record. I think Mizzou guts this one out, but anything could happen.
8:00: Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (ESPNU): This is a Conference USA banger. Both teams are 5-0 in the league, but with one crucial difference: Kennesaw has been pouding folks. They have a +71 point differential in conference play. They could definitely lose this game, but I like the Owls.
10:00: Louisiana Tech @ Washington State (The CW): I just feel so bad for Wazzu and Oregon State. The Cougs should win this one at least.
10:15: Texas Christian @ Brigham Young (ESPN): TCU isn’t bad, I just like BYU here.
10:30:
- Wyoming @ Fresno State (FS1): Who even knows about the Mountain West anymore, y’all. Well, other than that Hawaii is that good, I guess. I guess it’ll be Fresno here?
- Boise State @ San Diego State (CBSS): SDSU, a team pretty much cruising through conference play, went on vacation last week, apparently, as they got absolutely smoked 38-6 by Hawaii. Boise, of course, lost 30-7 to Fresno a couple weeks ago. So coming into this game… flip a coin. I’ll guess Aztecs.
- California-Davis @ Montana State (ESPN2)