I’m just going to post the link because I am so very tired. Thanks for understanding. We’ll be back in force for the preview later this week and bowl predictions next week.

Week 2 of the predictions are hot-and-ready. I waited until after the release of the first Playoff Committee rankings, which I generally use to get an idea of how they’re thinking, at least at this early juncture.

It’s still a bit too early to get too far into the weeds on details, so let’s just hit the salient points for now:

• I’m predicting that Alabama defeats Georgia in the SEC championship, that Clemson wins out, Ohio State wins out, and Notre Dame wins out. Which put me in a bind for the last spot in the playoff. Notre Dame would have one loss, that 20-19 loss to Georgia back in September. Georgia would have that win, but also a very recent loss to Alabama in the SEC championship. Humans are prone to recency bias, which hurts Georgia’s chances, but (unfortunately) Georgia’s wins over Notre Dame and Auburn would be better than Notre Dame’s best two wins in this scenario (probably the wins over Southern Cal and NC State). 
• I actually did have 80 teams this time, which was nice. You can also see my running tally of eligible teams, and we’re already nearly halfway there.
• There are more than a few teams that will only have 11 games, and I wonder if worse comes to worse the NCAA will allow 5-6 teams to be picked ahead of 5-7 teams that get in on APR or if they’ll just still be eligible. (Of course, this never came up back when the season was only, you know, 11 games, but there were a lot less bowl games back then.)
• At least once each year I predict Texas and Texas A&M will play in a Texas-based bowl, and while I realize that it probably won’t happen, it’s fun to think about.

And… here we go again! The first bowl predictions of the season are here! Over the next several weeks, I’ll be doing my best to foresee where 80 teams will play football in the last few weeks of the year.

For the first edition this year, I got an assist from Bill Callahan’s S&P+ stat profiles. This saves me a good bit of time when it comes to handicapping the teams, especially at this point in the year when there’s still a lot of football left to be played. And indeed, it shows in the predictions. I was also short several teams, but upsets late in the year tend to help out in that department. In other words, no need to panic (yet).

Essentially, it’s still too early to say what’s what. Nonetheless, all the bowl information is there and correct to the best of my ability, but the predictions? Just for fun at this point.

At least, the final edition of the predictions are available. I’ll note that they’re not neccessary set in stone. After I wake up this morning, I will begin scanning my newsfeeds for any updated information as the dominoes of the bowl games fall into place. So let’s hit the highlights:

• I redid a lot of the ACC’s bowl games to reflect two things. First, it seems likely that Georgia Tech will get a bid to the Taxslayer Bowl, 10 years after our previous appearance in what was then the Gator Bowl. (Hopefully it goes better this time.) I was also persuaded by the arguments for the Backyard Brawl in the Russell Athletic Bowl, but if the RAB isn’t then Virginia Tech probably slides up into that slot.
• I’m sticking to my guns with regards to the top-4 for the playoffs: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington. I think the only argument is for Penn State over Ohio State. Even if this gets weird later today, the damage will only be contained to the CFP-controlled bowls, unless Washington winds up in the Rose. 
• I made some other changes based off rumors, like Houston playing San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They came form ESPN folks, though, and they own almost all the bowl games, so if anyone has an inside track, it’s them.

That’s all I have for now. I’ve explained my process before, and I’m out of things to explain. All that’s next is to wait.