Rather than trying to make sense of what’s going on with the US National Team right now, let’s just talk about the scenarios in Asia.

Currently, the following five teams have qualified: Japan, Korea Republic, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Thailand. This leaves seven spots available. Let’s get to it.

Group A
This is Saudi Arabia’s group, and they already qualified (they’ll either top the group or finish with more points than any of the other runners up can get). The United Arab Emirates are still in play, and we’ll talk about the runners-up later. However, the group is still not clinched.

• The United Arab Emirates will win the group if they defeat Saudi Arabia by more than two goals.
• Saudi Arabia will win the group in all other scenarios.

Group B
Australia currently leads the group with 18 points, but Jordan remains right on the Socceroos’s heels with 16 points. They play each other in Sydney on Tuesday. Here’s the deal.

• Australia will win the group with a win or draw.
• Jordan will win the group with a win.

Group C
Qatar is winning the group by 7 points, so no drama here.

Group D
Iran currently leads the group with 17 points, while Oman trails with 14 points. They’ll meet in Tehran on Tuesday facing the following scenarios:

• Iran clinches with any win, draw, or non-absurd loss.
• Oman clinches the group with a win by at least 8 goals.

Group E
Japan is assured of advancement, but they haven’t yet clinched the group. They have 19 points to Syria’s 18 and meet in Saitama on Tuesday.

• Japan clinches the group with any win or draw.
• Syria clinches the group with a win.

Group F
This group is interesting, but mostly because of its runners-up. Thailand has clinched the group with 14 points. but Iraq currently has 9 and Vietnam has 7. More on that below.

Group G
Korea Republic has run away with the group, and Kuwait is still in FIFA limbo, but regardless their prospects look dim.

Group H
Uzbekistan has 18 points, and Korea DPR has 16 points, and unlike most of the other groups, they don’t play each other Tuesday.

• Uzbekistan clinches with any win over Bahrain.
• Uzbekistan clinches with any Korea DPR loss to the Philippines.
• Korea DPR clinches with any win over the Philippines and any Uzbekistan loss.
• Korea DPR can clinch with if Uzbekistan draws Bahrain if they beat the Philippines by at least 5 goals. (Note: if by 5 goals, then the “goals scored in matches between tied teams tiebreaker” applies, otherwise overall goal difference applies.)

Runners-up
The top four runners-up from the groups will also advance. Points won against the last place teams in their respective groups do not count. It’d be too time-consuming to enumerate all the scenarios, but here’s the prospects for this pool of teams.

• If Syria draws Japan, then they’ll finish with 13 points and advance.
• Currently, the UAE, Jordan, and Korea DPR all have 10 points for this purpose. If they win, they’re in: no one from behind them can catch them. Of course, if Jordan wins, they win their group anyway, but still.
• Things get interesting if anyone in the above group loses and either Iraq, Vietnam, China PR, Oman, or Kuwait win. (Of course Kuwait won’t play Tuesday and will probably wind up forfeiting, but still.) Of this group, Iraq probably has the best chance: they could even advance with a draw with Vietnam and a Korea DPR loss thanks to their goal differential.
• If Australia loses to Jordan, they’ll have 12 points for this purpose, which I would say is likely to be good enough, but it’s not guaranteed.
• In the unlikely scenario they lose the group, Uzbekistan is probably still okay with their 12 points as well.

Meanwhile, in CONCACAF:

• Mexico can clinch Group A with a win over Canada.

That’s about it, I’d say. We’ll be back to talk shop when the OFC resumes in May.

The first qualifiers of the year are here, due to take place over the next week or so. Asia plus North and South America will all be in action, so let’s do our usual thing. Plus, the status of all FIFA members page has been updated, just in case you’re curious about where your favorite country stands. Overall, we still have 123 countries competing for 31 spots, though with the AFC Second Round ending that number figures to be a bit slimmer this time next week. Anyway, let’s get to it.

AFC
The Asian Football Confederation is finishing its second round of World Cup qualifying, plus its own Asian Cup qualifying. This is post about the World Cup and the Confederations Cup, though, so we only really care about the former.

There are 7 groups of five teams and 1 group of four teams. The group winners automatically advance to the Third Round, plus the best four runners-up.

Group A
Saudi Arabia currently leads the group with 16 points, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 13. The Saudis, though, play Malaysia and their -25 goal differential at home on Thursday, which means they will almost assuredly get the three points. The UAE, meanwhile, get Palestine, which is currently sitting on 9 points. Palestine will be desperate for a road win, as they will otherwise be eliminated from the World Cup. If the UAE fails to win, then the Saudis will clinch the group with a win or a draw. If Saudi Arabia somehow fails to do either, then their match on Tuesday will be for the group.

Group B
Not much looks to be settled Thursday in this group. Australia currently leads with 15 points, but Jordan is right on their heels with 13. Both teams get the two worst teams in the group (Tajikistan and Bangladesh, respectively), which means the match Tuesday in Sydney would probably be a big deal, except as it currently stands either team will probably finish as one of the top-four runners-up. More on that next week, if I have time.

Group C
Qatar has already topped the group, so all the action here is between Hong Kong and China. While the former is in the lead, it doesn’t look good for everyone’s favorite plucky Special Administrative Region. Hong Kong has to go on the road and play at Qatar, while China gets the 4th place team in the group at home. They’ll meet again on Tuesday, with Hong Kong probably looking to play spoiler.

Group D
Iran and Oman are the only remaining non-eliminated teams in the group (with 14 and 11 points), and they will play the bottom-most teams in Guam and India. After collecting their three points, they’ll meet in Tehran on Tuesday with the group on the line. It’s hard to forecast right now, but considering their relatively low point totals, it may really, really be on the line.

Group E
It’s Japan (16 points), Syria (15), and then everyone else. They’ll play (you guessed it) the bottom two teams in the group in Afghanistan and Cambodia and meet in Saitama on Tuesday. (I guess I might really have to take a look at where everyone stands again on Monday!)

Group F
This one should be interesting. This is the group that Indonesia was in, so this is the one that’s making everything else that much harder to calculate. At any rate, Thailand currently leads with 13 points, and will clinch with a win or draw over 2nd place Iraq, with 8 points. Vietnam, meanwhile, only has 4 points, but they have two games to play, one against Taiwan Chinese Taipei, and then another against Iraq, so they could still finish in the top 4 of the runners-up pool. Realistically, though, Iraq is going to need to pull out a win against the Thais. Neither match is on the road, but they’re not at home either, as Iraq is currently playing all their matches in Tehran. (Apparently the stadium is named after a casualty of the Iraq-Iran War. Oof.)

Group G
So Kuwait is currently suspended by FIFA, but unlike Singapore or Zimbabwe, they got suspended in the middle of qualifying last fall. They wound forfeiting a match last fall, which meant that South Korea actually qualified for the Third Round in the middle of January without playing anyone. Their matches for this international break will not be played, which will probably force another forfeit. So the only team in action will be Lebanon, which will probably lose on the road at South Korea and then beat Myanmar at home. More on this as it developes.

Group H
This is pretty much North Korea, Uzbekistan, and everyone else. Currently those two have 16 and 15 points, though the Koreans also have a game in hand. The most likely scenario is that the Uzbeks will wind up topping the group, with North Korea finishing as one of the top-four runners-up. But hey, we’ll see.

CAF
The Confederation of African Football finished their Second Round last November, but there’s not much else going on until the draw for the Third Round in June, and even then, matches won’t resume until November. All the usual suspects (Cote d’Ivorie, Algeria, Ghana, and Senegal) are all in, though, plus Egypt and South Africa. Overall, 20 teams will be split into five groups of four, with the group winners qualifying directly for the World Cup. It’s more fair than their previous system, but the pressure will be on.

CONCACAF
The CONCACAF Fourth Round got underway back in November. The three groups of four still have four more matchdays to go, so there’s still plenty of play in most of these groups. Let’s have a look, though.

Group A
Mexico looks back to being, well, Mexico with six points through two matches, including a road win over Honduras. Canada, meanwhile, scored a 1-0 win over the Hondurans at home, and drew on the road at El Salvador, putting them in pretty good position to move on to the hex, provided they can get a point or three off Mexico during their home-and-away. Honduras and El Salvador are still in, though, and if one of them can keep pace with the Canadians that will make things exciting in September. If Mexico goes 2-0 against Canada they will have all but topped this group.

Group B
Costa Rica currently leads with 6 points, with Panada and Jamaica right behind with 3 points, and then Haiti with none. This group has the most potential to be a mess out of the three, so I’m hesitant to say anything definitive at this point, though I’d be surprised if Costa Rica lost either of their upcoming matches with Jamaica.

Group C
The most likely scenario is that the US and Trinidad and Tobago will both get six points here. T&T plays St. Vincent and the Grenadines home-and-home, which, well, we’re talking about a team with a -9 goal differential after two games, here. The US gets Guatemala, and the US is gunning to get six points and make the games in September academic.

CONMEBOL
It’s matchdays five and six down in South America, so we’ll still have 12 more go after this. In the meantime, the most surprising result is that Argentina is currently sitting out of the advancement zone, but, again, there’s still a lot of soccer to be played here.

OFC
Not much has changed here since last fall, check back in May.

UEFA
The Europeans won’t start qualifying until September, so check back then.

Yes that’s right folks, this Friday the United States will begin qualifying for a tournament that is still two and a half years away. Why? Well, that mostly because FIFA eliminated the February international dates in their calendar.

Let’s do a quick whip-around and checkout what’s been going on where, eh?

AFC
Asia is in the midst of its second round of qualifying, featuring seven groups of five and one group of four. Each group will play again this month and then in March to determine the winners. The winner of each group advances to the third round, and the four best runners-up advance as well.

So far, we’ve got a minor upset in Group B, with Australia trailing Jordan by a point. The Socceroos lost 2-0 to Jordan back on October, but they’ll get a chance again on the last matchday back on home soil in March.

Right now, Qatar is in control of Group C, but I would still be tickled if Hong Kong finishes ahead of China.

Most of the other groups currently contain no big surprises or anything, so we’ll revisit these guys in March.

CAF
Africa is currently in its second round, which pits 40 teams in home-and-away matches to determine who advances to the third round. Most of the ties haven’t gotten underway yet, so there’s not much to report. We’ll know the all the results by Wednesday, though!

CONCACAF
For North American, the fourth round is about to begin. Let’s go over each group.

Group A
This figures to be a pretty intense group. Mexico has a new coach, Honduras have made two straight World Cups, El Salvador are always tough, and Canada is trying to get to the same level as its continental neighbors. The first two would have to be the favorites, though.

Group B
Costa Rica were the darlings of the World Cup last year, Panama was just on the cusp of making it in 2014, and Haiti and Jamaica were the darlings of this summer’s Gold Cup. If I had to pick two to come out of this group, I’d probably go with Costa Rica and Jamaica.

Group C
The US drew by far the easiest group. We’re sharing the group the with Trinidad and Tobago, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Guatemala. St. Vincent and the Grenadines sounds like it’d be a good name for a 50’s band more than anything else. Guatemala concerns me mostly because having to play a match in those Central American venues is always concerning. Trinidad and Tobago is the best team out of this group, and of course the US has some history with them as well (having knocked them out of contention of the 1990 World Cup). It should be instructive, if nothing else.

CONMEBOL
South America’s grand qualification tournament has begun, and so far it’s a doozy. Right now the big news is that Argentina only got one point of their first two games, and will still lack Messi for this month’s games. If you can, try to find Argentina-Brazil tonight.

OFC
Not much has happened in Oceania since the last time we went over this, since their next round doesn’t start until May.

UEFA
Europe doesn’t begin qualifying until next September.

That’s it for now! Since there won’t be any more action until March after this, I may do a postmortem, but we’ll see!

Well, there’s been a bunch of early round World Cup qualification action. As of today, of the 207 countries that entered and weren’t disqualified, 23 have already been eliminated. Since only 23 have gotten the axe, I’ll go ahead and list them. Sorry Brunei, Macau, Mongolia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Anguilla, the Bahamas, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Montserrat, Aruba, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, St. Lucia, Bermuda, Dominica, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname, better luck in 2019!

Astute observers will note a certain trend, though. Many of these places lack any sort of soccer tradition (e.g., Mongolia and Pakistan) or are places more well known for exporting rum than soccer players (e.g., those Caribbean island nations). Of course, other astute observers will not that some of those places aren’t actually countries (e.g., Macau and Puerto Rico), but that’s a discussion that can get complicated pretty quickly, so we’ll avoid it here.

So, let’s finally do a proper kick-off post for the 2018 World Cup.

Amidst all that unpleasantness during the FIFA Congress back in late May, they did get around to announcing the bids for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. As expected, they remained the same, but the sake of convenience we’ll break it down it again.

• Hosts: 1 bid
• AFC: 4.5 bids (for 54 teams)
• CAF: 5 bids (for 53 teams)
• CONCACAF: 3.5 bids (for 18 teams)
• CONMEBOL: 4.5 bids (for 10 teams)
• OFC: 0.5 bids (for 11 teams)
• UEFA: 13 bids (for 52 teams)
• Total: 32

There are still some unknowns, so this post won’t be as comprehensive as I’d like. The preliminary draw for the World Cup will occur on July 25th, so look for an update after that. The main reason qualifying started this early at all is because FIFA modified the international calendar, which eliminated the confederations’ ability to schedule qualification matches in February and August.

Since the action has already started, I’ve been updating the 2018 Status page. I also added June’s FIFA rankings as well, mostly because I wanted to know what the highest ranked team eliminated so far was. The answer is 107th ranked Cuba. The lowest ranked side to advance in any confederation’s competition so far is 160th ranked Grenada.

AFC
The AFC is the Asian Football Confederation. It covers most of continental Asia except for countries that have ties to or are otherwise part of Europe (Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Armenia, and Cyprus), plus Israel (because… reasons) and Australia (which left the OFC in 2006 in search of stronger competition). By far the most successful Asian country is South Korea, which has qualified for the finals nine times (including every World Cup starting with the 1986 event in Mexico) and is the only Asian country to have made it past the Round of 16, finishing fourth when they co-hosted with Japan in 2002.

The AFC will receive 4.5 bids for the finals in 2018. What does it mean to get half a bid, though? Well, it means that four teams will qualify directly, while a fifth team will have to play-off against a team from another confederation for the last spot. Who that team will play has not been decided yet.

The AFC’s qualification process began back in March, with the 12 lowest ranked teams (according to FIFA’s rankings) were paired up to whittle the number down to 6. India, Yemen, Timor-Leste, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, and Bhutan advanced. These six then joined the confederation’s 34 other teams to begin the second round, which divided the 40 teams into eight five team groups. This means that (almost) all of the confederation’s teams began participating earlier this month. (Indonesia was suspended by FIFA, so there are only 39 teams actually competing.) No huge surprises so far, but there’s a few amusing observations to be had:

• Hong Kong and China were drawn into the same group. Both have played Bhutan. Hong Kong won 7-0, but China only managed a 6-0 win.
• 2022 hosts Qatar were also drawn into that group, and needed a goal in the ninth (ninth?) minute of stoppage time to beat the literally tiny island nation of the Maldives.
• Speaking of tiny island nations, go go Guam, which isn’t even technically a country! Home to 159,358 people according to the 2010 U.S. Census, they beat Turkmenistan (population: 5,171,943) 1-0, and then beat India (population: 1,210,193,422) 2-1.
• One more from the “tiny island nations” file: Singapore drew Japan in Japan, 0-0. 
• 2014 almost-darlings Uzbekistan (they totally should’ve qualified) aren’t starting off so hot this time around, with a 4-2 loss to North Korea.

The top team from each group, plus the top four runners-up will advance, but all five teams in each group play each other home-and-home through next March, so it’ll be awhile before we know. These remaining twelve teams will be split into two groups of six, which will then play home-and-home series through 2017, with the top two teams going to Russia and the third place teams duking it out for a shot at the inter-confederation play-off.

CAF
The Confederation of African Football has, thankfully, changed its format for this World Cup. It’s still not perfect, though. The main problem is that we probably won’t know the details until the preliminary draw takes place, but what we currently know is that the fourth round will consist of 20 teams playing five groups of four, and the group winners advance to the World Cup. The question is how they’ll get from 53 to 20 teams over the first three rounds, but we do know the first three rounds will consist of home-and-home fixtures between two teams with the winner advancing on aggregate, so it’s just a matter of the exact numbers.

As alluded to above, this is a change from CAF’s previous format, which saw 5 head-to-head ties to determine who went to the 2014 World Cup, which dearly cost Egypt last time around, as they drew Ghana instead of, say, Nigeria or Tunisia. This format should be much more fair.

CONCACAF
The CONCACAF (Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Football) an party began back in March with the first round, and the winners from that advancing to the second round. Both consisted of head-to-head, home-and-home matches with the winners advancing on aggregate. Four of the fourteen teams from the first round made it through: Belize, Barbados, Nicaragua, and Curaçao. Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, and Antigua and Barbuda entered in the second round and also advanced, joining Jamaica and Haiti in the third round. The draw for this round, also consisting of head-to-head matches, will take place on July 25. CONCACAF’s fourth round will consist of twelve teams contesting three groups of four, with the top two teams from each group advancing to the fifth round, the famous Hexagonal. CONCACAF’s top teams enter at this point: the four World Cup teams from last year (Costa Rica, the US, Mexico, and Honduras) plus Panama and Trinidad and Tobago. The draw for this round will also occur on July 25, meaning that the head-to-head winners’ groups will be pre-determined. The third round will commence on August 31st, and the fourth round no earlier than November 7th. (Yes, this means the US will begin World Cup qualification in November.)

As the name implies, the Hexagonal will feature six teams. The top three will qualify for the World Cup, with fourth places will play in an inter-confederation playoff, with the opponent to be determined. In 2013, Mexico’s (hilariously) woeful qualifying campaign was saved because CONCACAF had drawn the OFC as its opponent, which meant playing New Zealand instead of Uruguay. (Mexico probably would’ve beaten AFC’s Jordan as well, but there were a lot of teams Mexico was supposed to beat in that campaign.)

CONMEBOL
The Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol represents South America, with the exception of Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana. One of only two confederations to ever win a World Cup (along with UEFA, which represents Europe), this is the strongest confederation in the world (by average strength). It’s hard not to argue that usually half its members qualify for the World Cup. Its qualifier format is dead simple: ten teams play a double round-robin. The top four directly qualify, with the fifth place plays in, and usually wins, an inter-confederation play-off. Play will begin this October and continue through 2017.

OFC
The Oceanic Football Confederation consists of New Zealand and a bunch of tiny Pacific island nations. The time around, the OFC has decided to double up their continental cup tournament with their World Cup qualifiers, likely to prevent a repeat of what happened last time when New Caledonia  pulled off a shock upset of New Zealand. Tahiti than beat New Calendonia and went to the 2013 Confederations Cup, whereupon they suffered the worst ever loss in a FIFA-sponsored tournament and finished group play with a -23 goal differential. (The Confederations Cup acts as a “warm up” of sorts for the World Cup and is played in the host country the year before. The entrants are the host, the previous World Cup winner, and the winners of each confederation’s cup tournament, hence the name.)

OFC qualification will get under way in late August to determine the best of American Samoa, the Cook Islands, Samoa, and Tonga. The winner will advance to the second round, where the winner will join the rest of the confederation’s teams, split into two groups of four, with round-robin home-and-home matches beginning in October. The top two teams from each group will advance to the final round, which will be played in similar fashion starting in August 2016. The winner will then advance to the 2017 Confederations Cup and play in the inter-confederation playoff for a shot at the World Cup.

UEFA
Last, and most assuredly not the least, is the Union of European Football Associations. UEFA qualification will begin last, as the confederation is currently conducting its qualifiers for the European Championships next year. However, the draw for its World Cup qualifying will still occur on July 25th (when else?). The 52 teams competing for spots will be divided into nine groups (seven groups of six and two groups of five). The nine group winners will qualify directly for the World Cup, while the eight best runner-up will play-off for the four remaining spots. Qualification will get underway in September 2016.

That’s pretty much it for now! Expect more news after the draw on July 25th.