Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Games 2013: This Is The Second Part

Bowl games really start to get into the swing of things here. We’ll examine the next five bowls and then do Saturday’s in another post.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday, December 26
6:00: Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green (Little Caesars Pizza Bowl @ Detroit, MI; EPSN): Bowling Green sports a 10-3 record and some gaudy defensive numbers, but one of those three losses was a 42-10 blowout at the hands of Indiana. I’m going with Pitt in this one, though it could be close.
Previous meetings: Three, all the in regular season. Pitt won back-to-back games in 1999 and 2000, but lost in 2008, 27-17.
Last bowl game: Bowling Green lost last year’s Military Bowl to San Jose State, 29-20. Pitt is making their sixth bowl appearance in a row, dating back to 2008’s Sun Bowl (most famous for being a 3-0 tragedy against Oregon State in which all of us lost, but especially Pitt). The lost last year’s BBVA Compass Bowl to Ole Miss, 38-17.
Announcers: Dave Lamont and Ray Bentley

9:30: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): Both these teams are coming off winnable letdowns in their conference title games, though it was NIU that suffered the most grievously in their 47-27 rout against Bowling Green. That said, Jordan Lynch’s final ride should be a success, though I don’t now how much of one, or even if it’ll be enough for the Huskies to win. I’m giving them a slight edge here.
Previous meetings: Only one, back in 1995. The Aggies won 42-7.
Last bowl game: Utah State is making their third bowl game in a row, and after two straight trips to Boise I’m sure they’ll relish the weather in San Diego. They beat Toledo 41-15 last year. This is NIU’s sixth bowl game in a row, dating back to a 17-10 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. They lost 31-10 to Florida State in last year’s Orange Bowl. The Huskies would have one of the nation’s larger bowl streaks if it weren’t for a lost 2-10 campaign in 2007 and not making a bowl in 2003 despite being 10-2. (Or, to be even more generous, they were 8-4 before that and 6-5 in 2000 and 2001.) That’s a pretty good run for any team, much less one from the MAC.
Announcers: Joe Davis and Mike Bellotti

Friday, December 27
2:30: Maryland vs. Marshall (Military Bowl @ Annapolis, MD; ESPN): I picked Marshall here in what I’m guessing a slight upset. I guess another way of saying that is I don’t think Maryland is very good.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these two teams.
Last bowl game: This is Maryand’s first appearance in a bowl since the 2010 edition of this game, which was played at RFK Stadium. They beat East Carolina 51-20. This is Marshall’s first bowl since the 2011 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl, which they won 20-10 over Florida International.
Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham

6:00: Syracuse vs. Minnesota (Texas Bowl @ Houston, TX; ESPN): I wouldn’t expect a lot of offense in this one. Problem for Syracuse is that a) their offense is worse than Minnesota’s and b) that their defense is a lot worse. This would seem to spell trouble for the Orange, but, well, there’s a reason why I put that disclaimer at the top.
Previous meetings: Four, three of which have been won by Minnesota. The first meeting and only Orange victory was in 1995. They last met last year, where the Gophers won 17-10.
Last bowl game: Syracuse beat West Virginia 38-14 in last year’s Pinstripe Bowl. Minnesota lost 34-31 to Texas Tech in last year’s Car Care Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Jones and Brock Huard

9:30: Washington vs. Brigham Young (Fight Hunger Bowl @ San Francisco, CA; ESPN): It’s generally not a good sign when you go back and look at your ESPN Bowl Pick ‘Em picks and are surprised at who you picked. We’ll roll with it anyway. At any rate, these are both teams that can run the bowl, but Washington has been more adept at offense over the season. Neither defense gives a lot of points, though, so BYU will definitely be hanging around. I think this game will be one of the closer, tighter ones, but I’m going to stick to my pick.
Previous meetings: Eight of ’em, and the series is evenly split between the two. They split back-to-back games in 1986 and 1987, but Washington won three of the four games played from 1996 to 1999. BYU has won the last three meetings, including a 23-17 victory in 2010.
Last bowl game: This is U-Dub’s third bowl in a row, going back to 2010’s Holiday Bowl. They lost to Baylor 67-56 in last year’s defense optional Alamo Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Pasch and Brian Griese

Bowl Games 2013: Opening Slate

Once again, it’s time for post-season football. (Note that I have predicted all winners and losers already, I just need to fill in the scores, which requires slightly more research. These will be up soon.)

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 21
2:00: Washington State vs. Colorado State (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Wazzou makes it back to a bowl for the first time in the Mike Leach era. I think that excitement will translate into a slight win for the Cougars.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: Yes, it really has been 10 years since Wazzou last appeared in a bowl. They beat Texas 28-20 in the Holiday Bowl. After a five year drought themselves, the Rams make a return trip to this very game. The last time they were here in the post-season, they beat Fresno State 40-35.
Announcers: Mark Jones and Brock Huard

3:30: Southern California vs. Fresno State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): USC’s defense will be, bar none, the best defense the prolific Fresno State offense has faced all year. I think that will be enough for the Trojans to hold them off, but it’s kind of dicey because a) USC still has to adjust to the idea of playing in minor bowls b) DaCoachO was, by all accounts, very popular and resigned after USC hired Steve Sarkisian and c) depth.
Previous meetings: These two in-state foes have met only twice. The first meeting was in 1992, where the Trojans lost 24-7 in the Freedom Bowl. The last was more memorable, perhaps for Fresno’s plucky performance at what was being called at the time the Team of the Century. USC would win 50-42, preserving their undefeated season so they could lose to Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.
Last bowl game: This will be the second to last time I get to say this, most likely: USC lost to Georgia Tech in last year’s Sun Bowl, 21-7. Fresno lost last year’s Hawaii Bowl to SMU, 41-10.
Announcers: Rece Davis, Jesse Palmer, and David Pollack

5:30: Buffalo vs. San Diego State (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): In what is annually one of my favorite bowls for reasons mostly related to the name (it just feels right for bowls to be named after agricultural products, you know?). As for the game itself, I don’t have a good feel for this at all. Looking at the stats, and then looking my predicted winner, I guess I’m basically just saying SDSU is going to get lucky. Again, because they did beat some solid Mountain West teams and almost knocked off Fresno State themselves.
Previous meetings: None.
Last bowl game: The Bulls haven’t been to a bowl since their somewhat improbable run to a MAC championship in 2008, after which they lost to UConn in the International Bowl, 38-20. This will be the Aztecs’ fifth fourth bowl. They lost last year at home in the Poinsettia Bowl to BYU, 23-6.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Matt Stinchcomb

9:00: Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Tulane has a surprisingly good defense, but they are inept offensively. The Ragin’ Cajuns meanwhile have an okay defense and a good offense. These games, as one might suspect, are relatively hard to predict, but I gave a slight edge to the Cajuns.
Previous meetings: These in-state rivals have met only 26 times, and the Green Wave own the overall series 21-5. Lafayette won the last meeting last year, 41-13.
Last bowl game: This is Tulane’s first bowl game since the 2002 Hawaii Bowl, where they beat their hosts 36-28. Meanwhile, this is Lafayette’s third straight New Orleans Bowl. Last year they beat East Carolina 43-34. (The game is completely sold out, so apparently they’re not tired of going back yet.)
Announcers: Mike Patrick and Ed Cunningham

Monday, December 23
2:00: East Carolina vs. Ohio (Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): The nation’s 11th ranked scoring offense against its 66th scoring defense does not augur good tidings for the Bobcats.
Previous meetings: Two of ’em, actually, in 1996 and 1998. East Carolina won both, 55-45 and 21-14.
Last bowl game: The Pirates lost to the aforementioned Ragin’ Cajuns in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, 43-34. The Bobcats, meanwhile, are playing their fourth straight bowl game. They beat UL-Monroe 45-14 in the Independence Bowl last year.
Announcers: Beth Mowins and Joey Galloway

Tuesday, December 24
8:00: Oregon State vs. Boise State (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Both these teams were rebuilding this year, so a trip to Hawaii after a pair of trying seasons has to be a bit of a relief. I think by the end of the year Boise was a slightly better team, so I have them as an appropriately slight winner.
Previous meetings: Seven times, with the Beavers holding a slight 4-3 edge. Boise has won the last two meetings, which were in 2006 and 2010. The 2010 win had a 37-24 margin.
Last bowl game: Oregon State lost last year’s Alamo Bowl to Texas, 31-27. This is Boise’s 12th straight bowl game, dating back to the 1999 Humanitarian Bowl, where they won 34-31. They also won last year’s Las Vegas Bowl over a Pac-12 opponent, beating Washington 28-26.
Announcers: Steve Levy, Lou Holtz, and Mark May

This Weekend in College Football: Week 16

Yep, it’s week 16. Why 16? Well, there was an extra week due to the calendar this year, which why teams had two bye weeks during the season.

Quick note: I won’t cover them here, but several more FCS playoff games are available online, including Eastern Washington’s blood-red field.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Coastal Carolina @ North Dakota State (NCAA Division I Quarterfinal; ESPN): North Dakota State is undefeated on the season, and it hasn’t really been close. Of the two games decided by less than a touchdown, one was the win over Kansas State and the other to fellow FCS power (though they had a down year this year) Northern Iowa. The Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina were also pretty dominant, but they did lose a game to a non-FCS opponent (South Carolina) and well I’m going with the Bison.

3:00: Army vs. Navy (@Philadelphia, PA; CBS): The 2nd and 3rd ranked rushing attacks in the country meet again, so don’t expect a lot of passing. That said, Navy was simply the better team on the year. Army struggled against other teams with strong rushing attacks (Boston College and Air Force) and in general their three wins were over some really lousy teams. It’s hard to see the USMA’s losing streak ending this year.

Bowl Predictions 2013: Final

Here are the final projections. I’ll be tweaking them throughout the day as bids are announced. Here are the high points:

  • This is a good article about the sorts of things that are wrong with the bowl system, at least in terms of teams earning bids.
  • Most other projections have Oregon getting shut out of the BCS, so I decided to follow the trend. I still have no idea why Clemson is considered a BCS team, but people who know more than me about this stuff say they’re in so I guess they’re in.
  • Oklahoma’s win over Oklahoma State is being projected to give them enough of a lift up into the top 14, where they will also go to the BCS for some reason. (Well, they’ll sell a ton of tickets to the Sugar Bowl, that’s why.)
  • Today’s results, especially in the Big 12, robbed me of the interesting matchups I was projecting last week. So much for those Oklahoma-Nebraska and Oregon-Baylor games. Instead, you’ll probably get to see Oregon put up 60 on Texas.
  • Speaking of predicted blowouts, most sources I saw put Duke in the Chick-fil-a Bowl against Texas A&M. TAMU’s defense is pretty awful, but they should be able to beat Duke handily. I have no idea why the CFA would pick Duke over Miami. Or at least I didn’t until I saw that their selection committee page said Miami’s best win is over Georgia Tech. My initial reaction was “that can’t possibly be right”. It turns out it is.
  • I would rather see Alabama-Oregon and Ohio State-Oklahoma State than what we’re getting, but that’s the BCS for you, I guess. We’ll know for sure at 8:30 PM tonight.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 15

It’s championship week!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday
7:30: Louisville @ Cincinnati (ESPN): A season of “what-ifs” for the Cardinals should wrap up with a win over Cincinnati.

Friday
8:00: Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): Bowling Green currently sports the country’s 5th ranked scoring defense. However, it will take a Herculean effort on their part to stand-up to darkhorse Heisman candidate QB Jordan Lynch and his Huskies. (In their last game against Western Michigan, Lynch ran for 321 yards on 27 carries. That’s 11.9 yards/carry. Yeah.) NIU should be able to secure a second consecutive trip to the promised land.

Saturday
12:00:

  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (ABC): Against any team that has a pulse on defense, Oklahoma’s offense has struggled, leading directly to their two losses (the disaster against Texas and the debacle against Baylor). Oklahoma State shredded the two teams Oklahoma lost to, putting up an average 43.5 points while giving up 30 (or an average of 15). Frankly, Oklahoma State looks like the better team at this point.
  • Central Florida @ Southern Methodist (ESPN): UCF has sealed the deal, so this is just the cherry on top. It would also deny SMU a bowl bid.
  • Marshall @ Rice (Conference USA Championship Game; ESPN2): Marshall appears to be a good team, in all honestly. I’m going with the Thundering Herd here. Will be interesting to see how many show up at the Rice Bowl, though.

3:30: Texas @ Baylor (FOX): Baylor’s struggled in recent weeks with injuries and depth made me pause for a moment, but just for a moment. Going with the Bears here, in what will be the Big 12 championship if Oklahoma State loses.

4:00: Auburn vs. Missouri (Southeastern Conference Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Both of these teams bring dynamic offenses into the table. Missouri is slightly better on defense, and also James Franklin is a vastly better passer than Nick Marshall. Overall, I think Mizzou is a more well-rounded team and can pull this one out in the end.

7:30: South Florida @ Rutgers (ESPN2): Neither of these teams is very good, but Rutgers should be able to make it to 6-6 with a win against a slightly more awful USF.

7:45: Stanford @ Arizona State (Pac-12 Championship; ESPN): One on hand, this is easy, given that Stanford already trounced the Sun Devils back in September. But on the other, Arizona State is awesome at home and they haven’t lost since October 5th. Both of these teams are very good and this could very well be the best game of the day. But, in the end, I’ve got the Cardinal here. If they lose, though, one could definitely see the Pac-12 pushing of a neutral site title game.

8:00:

  • Michigan State vs. Ohio State (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): Michigan is the first team all year that came within 10 points of beating the Buckeyes, and while I agree that going for two was probably the right call, they were potentially an overtime away from taking their first loss. Meanwhile, the Spartans have a loss, and due to their style of play, several more close games. Their defense should provide the stiffest test for the Buckeyes so far, but unclear that even if Sparty holds the Buckeyes to 21 points that it’ll be enough.
  • Florida State vs. Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Charlotte, NC; ABC): I would be shocked if this ends in anything other than a rout.

10:00: Utah State @ Fresno State (Mountain West Conference Championship; CBS): Fresno gets a week to try to pick up the pieces of a broken season after their shocking loss to San Jose State. Their defense let them down, but still the unit on the field with the highest potential to carry the day is David Carr and the Fresno State offense.