Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 6

The new predictions are now up.

Provided I did the math correctly, there are currently 65 bowl eligible teams. That means we need 15 more, but where will they come from? Let’s list out every team on the cusp.

I’ll just go in order of the ESPN standings page.

  1. Southern Methodist (5-6): The Mustangs have to play at Navy this Saturday, the odds of them getting to 6-6 are pretty slim.
  2. North Carolina State (5-6): They play North Carolina on Friday, which isn’t impossible for the Wolfpack, but again, I’m not feeling good about it.
  3. Texas Christian (5-5): TCU still has two games to play, against Texas and Kansas State. I think I’ll win one but not the other, with my money on Texas.
  4. Texas (5-6): Since I have TCU beating Texas, well, that pretty much knocks the Longhorns out. Shouldn’t have lost to Kansas!
  5. Indiana (5-6): If only all of the above teams could get to play Purdue with bowl eligibility on the line! I like the Hoosiers chances.
  6. Maryland (5-6): See above, but replace “Purdue” with “Rutgers”.
  7. Northwestern (5-6): See above, but replace “Rutgers” with “Illinois”.
  8. Texas-San Antonio (5-6): The Roadrunners appear to be pretty evenly matched with Charlotte, so it could be kind of a tossup. I’m giving UTSA the edge, though.
  9. North Texas (5-6): So the Mean Green wrap up with UTEP, which is two wins worse in C-USA than North Texas but not that obviously worse. I’m still giving them a slight edge.
  10. Southern Mississippi (5-6): The Golden Eagles will play Louisiana Tech on Friday, and I just can’t favor USM over LaTech.
  11. Army (6-5): Army played two FCS teams this year, so one of the wins doesn’t count toward bowl eligibility, so if they lose to Navy (as predicted) in a few weeks then their record for bowl eligibility will actually be 5-6. That said, they’d almost certainly get picked as a 6-6 team, if they want to.
  12. Arizona State (5-6): The Sun Devils will play their arch-rivals Friday night, but they should prevail. 
  13. Vanderbilt (5-6): The Commodores will end their season against Tennessee, but as one of the schools in the APR Top 5 they’ll almost certainly get a bid at 5-7.
  14. Mississippi (5-6): I suspect Ole Miss are slight favorites in the Egg Bowl, and I imagine they’d get in at 5-7, but still, it’d make everything a lot easier if they win like they’re supposed to.
  15. South Alabama (5-5): USA only needs to win one of their two remaining games against Idaho and New Mexico State, which, well, they should be able to win one of those.

So, yeah, that’s exactly 15 teams, and the odds of all of them winning over the next two weeks are probably somewhere near zero. I have 9 of them as legitimate favorites, so that would still leave us, and everyone, short 6 teams. I supposed it’s entirely possible all of these teams get bids, but so far I haven’t done a lot of research for the potential 5-7 teams (other than Army and Vanderbilt).

In this week’s edition, I also started doing Internet research to try to figure out what teams are favored to go where, but with so much uncertainty it’s difficult right now. Next week should be a little more fruitful.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 12

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • Wisconsin @ Purdue (ABC): It doesn’t get much easier for the Badgers, as they should continue to cruise through the non-Michigan/Ohio State portion of their schedule.
  • Ohio State @ Michigan State (ESPN): One upside of my trip to Columbus last weekend: being around a bunch of Ohio State fans as it gradually dawns on them that they no longer control their own destiny in the Big Ten East. Better hope Sparty finds a sudden burst of competence sometime after this game, Buckeyes!
  • Kansas State @ Baylor (ESPN2): Baylor.
  • Oklahoma State @ Texas Christian (FS1): Oklahoma State has made it tough on themselves as of late. Yes, they handled West Virginia, but since they’ve beaten K-State by 6 and Texas Tech on a missed extra point. (I don’t mean they won by a point, which they did; the margin literally was a missed extra point on what was thought to be the tying touchdown by Texas Tech.) And now they roll into Forth Worth, where I still have them pegged as the favorite, but with major reservations.
  • Texas-San Antonio @ Texas A&M (ESPNU): Welcome to SEC Cupcake Weekend, where most of the SEC doesn’t even play other FBS teams, unlike TAMU here. In accordance with our long-standing policy, I don’t list FCS vs. FBS matchups, so this is one of the few SEC games listed here.
  • Maryland @ Nebraska (ESPNEWS): Fun fact: Maryland and Nebraska lost to Ohio State by the exact same score (62-3). I still have the Huskers here, though.
  • Louisiana-Lafayette @ Georgia (SEC): This is definitely a game that it taking place in Athens, Georgia this weekend. Yep.
  • Iowa @ Illinois (BTN): You know, I’m not sure I’d be much more inclined to watch the Big Ten Network, even if I did get it in HD. I’ll go with Iowa here.

12:30:

  • Virginia @ Georgia Tech (ACC): You can pick an number of recent events to point out that you didn’t see that coming, but even considering its relative unimportance, last week’s update of VPI was pretty shocking. Yes, Virginia Tech’s offense was awful, but we did generate actual pressure on the defensive line; started three freshman offensive linemen, which then played its best game as a unit on the season; and, oh yeah, our backup short-yardage QB had a 50+ yard touchdown run. It was good, vintage stuff, though it makes me terrified of what might happen when we play the Hokies next year.
    As for this game, hoo boy, the potential for a let down feels high, eh? I don’t know if I’d call it a trap game (can 6-4 teams really have trap games?), but I’d like to think the focus will be there on Senior Day. I don’t expect the team to suddenly be a lot better than they’ve been over the course of the season, but let’s hope something was learned in Blacksburg last wekeend.
  • Miami @ North Carolina State (ACC): I wrote last week that the Canes seemed to get their early-season mojo back, and sure enough, they beat Virginia by three scores. I expect the trend to continue here.

1:00: Florida @ Louisiana State (SEC): The odd timeslot and network placement for this game should tell you that yep, this was the game that was rescheduled. I still don’t know what magic was worked to both make this game happen and at Baton Rouge, but we’ll take it. Check your local listings to see if you get this instead of UL-Lafayette and Georgia. Also I like LSU.

2:00: Oregon @ Utah (Pac12): After two straight blowout losses to Southern Cal and Stanford, Oregon’s at 3-7 and effectively done.

3:00: Duke @ Pittsburgh (ACC/RSN): Pitt’s a good team! The only really shocking thing about their upset of Clemson was that they did in Death Valley, so I’ll give them credit for that. About the only thing that could stop them against the Blue Devils is a let-down.

3:30:

  • Missouri @ Tennessee (CBS): Tennessee.
  • Washington State @ Colorado (FOX): If I told myself back in September that this would be the late-season Pac-12 game you need to have circled on your calendar (along with the Apple Cup), I would’ve said you were a lot crazier than any of the scenarios presented in those Chick-fil-a “chicken for breakfast” commercials. Yet, here we are. With a win, Colorado also ensures the Pac-12 South comes down to their clash next week against Utah. I suspect there will be plenty of reasons to look forward to that one.
  • Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame (NBC): Okay, so yeah, losing to Georgia Tech isn’t really the best look this season, but chin-up Virginia Tech! You’re still much improved over last year, and you’ll get a chance to soothe the sting of the loss by pasting the worst Notre Dame team in a decade.
  • Florida State @ Syracuse (ABC/ESPN2): I still have FSU running the table, so…
  • Texas @ Kansas (ABC/ESPN2): I don’t think there’s a number of points Texas could run up on the Jayhawks that would have any effect on Charlie Strong’s job status after the season, and perhaps more damningly, I don’t think Texas’s dysfunctional offense is really capable of shellacking anyone anyway. (They’re still going to win, though.)
  • Indiana @ Michigan (ESPN): I like the idea of Indiana as TEAM CHAOS as much as the next person, but they beat Maryland and Rutgers by a combined 12 points and lost to Penn State by two touchdowns. Also included are losses to Wake Forest and Northwestern. The Hoosiers are just, like, not really that good this year.
  • Texas Tech @ Iowa State (FS1): So Texas Tech needs to win out against Iowa State and Baylor to get to 6-6 and maybe keep Kliff Kingsbury employed. I’d say odds are good they win on or the other (and probably this one), but not both.
  • Buffalo @ Western Michigan (ESPNU): So Gameday’s at this point, but who watches Gameday anymore? I still might if I lived in on the East Coast, I’m not getting up at 6:00 AM to watch 3 hours of people talking about football. At any rate, the boat will continue to be rowed.
  • Northwestern @ Minnesota (BTN): These teams have been excruciatingly similar in Big Ten play so far, mostly in that they’re both 4-3 and have scored 201 and 199 points, respectively. Since it’s at Minnesota, I’ll give the edge of the Gophers.
  • San Diego State @ Wyoming (CBSS): And here’s where Boise is pinning their hopes after Wyoming’s triple overtime 69-66 loss to UNLV last weekend. San Diego State is probably actually the second best team in the Mountain West despite a bizarre loss to South Alabama (seriously, the Jaguars beat Mississippi State and SDSU and are 1-5 in the Sun Belt). I have them as the favorites here, which should get the Aztecs a match with Boise in a couple of weeks.

4:00: Navy @ East Carolina (ESPNEWS): Like the Florida-LSU game, this game was also pushed back due to Hurricane Matthew. Unlike that game, though, I don’t have any doubts about who’s going to win, and it’s not going to go well for the Pirates versus the government.

5:30:

  • Southern Mississippi @ North Texas (beIN): I’d say Southern Miss is just a touch better than UNT. A touch.
  • Stanford @ California (Pac12): It’s the Big Game! Much like their last opponent, Cal also doesn’t really have a defense, and Stanford put up 52 on Oregon. It doesn’t figure to go much better for the Bears, but hey, it’s a rivalry game, so there’s always a wildcard factor.

7:00:

  • Clemson @ Wake Forest (ESPN): Yes, Clemson lost to Pitt, and yes, the Tigers didn’t really look great in the process, but like I said above, Pitt is pretty good. Wake, however, is just good, and it’s going to cost them here.
  • Arkansas @ Mississippi State (ESPNU): A 38-10 loss pretty much has me saying “so much for Novembert” but I still like the Razorbacks here.
  • South Florida @ Southern Methodist (CBSS): I’m going to be honest: I don’t like SMU’s chances here.

7:30: Arizona State @ Washington (FOX): USC is enjoying a resurgent second half, Arizona State, not so much. Washington gets back into shape here.

8:00:

  • Oklahoma @ West Virginia (ABC): Morgantown. Night. Right now (as of 7:30 AM, Eastern) the forecast for kickoff is 38 degrees with a 30% chance of snow. Football weather! I still like the Sooners, but boy howdy the conditions will be ripe to ignite some couches.
  • Tulsa @ Central Florida (ESPNEWS): If there were a “comeback team of the year” award, UCF would probably win it. I’m not sure it’ll be enough against this high-flying Tulsa team, though.
  • Mississippi @ Vanderbilt (SEC): The only other conference game of the day in the SEC! Ole Miss rallied to beat Texas A&M after taking the redshirt of their freshman quarterback, who came into his own in the 4th quarter. The task will be easier against the Commodores.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Rutgers (BTN): The Big Ten Network apparently is the home of games that figure mostly to be akin to a trainwreck. Hopefully those rights fees are worth the brand dilution of having Rutgers in your league! (… they probably are, but still)

10:15: New Mexico @ Colorado State (ESPN2): If you, like me, prefer 6-6 teams in bowl games over 5-7 teams, you really need Colorado State to win this game.

10:30:

  • Southern California @ California-Los Angeles (ESPN): Though there’s basically nothing about UCLA’s season to indicate this, I have a feeling the Bruins will be able to keep it close until USC pulls ahead in the 4th quarter. Also, this game is always worth a peek due to the color uniforms for both teams and the immaculate Rose Bowl field.
  • Air Force @ San Jose State (CBSS): If you’re into bowl eligibility, well, this isn’t the game for you, since Air Force is 7-3 and SJSU is 3-7. I think that’s about what you need to know about this one.
  • Arizona @ Oregon State (Pac12): Seriously, the bottom of this column is particularly dire. These two teams have a combined 4-16 record. Oof. Uh, Beavers I guess?

2018 World Cup Update: Jurgen Klinsmann Memorial Edition

So it’s three days since the US lost one of the most embarrassing games I can recall them playing, a 4-0 humiliation at Costa Rica. (And this is after I had flown to Columbus and back to watch them lose their first home qualifier in fifteen years.) The best thing I can say about this title is that I hope I’m wrong and we’ll still qualify easily without having to fire the coach, but frankly I agree with… just about everyone now in saying that US needs a new face on the sidelines.

And in the future, let’s maybe not assume a coach can survive nearly two full cycles. For whatever reason, it just doesn’t seem to happen.

Anyway, I’ve updated the status of every team page with the latest results from this most recent international window. No one has been eliminated, but we could see a couple in March. Notably, though, no one is on the verge of qualifying. Depending on how things shake out in the AFC, we could see some teams qualify next June, but for everyone else it’ll be around Labor Day next year.

Let’s take a quick glance at each confederation.

AFC
The final twelve entrants from Asia are halfway through the qualification cycle. In Group A, it’s race between the three favorites. Iran is currently topping the group with 11 points, followed by South Korea with 10, and then Uzbekistan with 9. Some combination of those three will make it through, but the question is which one will finish where.

  • Iran’s five remaining matches feature three home games against China, Uzbekistan, and Syria. They’ll be favorites in all three. However, they also have to go on the road to Uzbekistan and South Korea. I think they’ll get at least 7 points from their home games, which puts them at somewhere between 18 and 24 points overall.
  • South Korea will play on the road three times, against China, Qatar, and Uzbekistan. They’ve already played all three at home and while they did win all those matches, it wasn’t terribly convincing. The only gimme is the home game against Syria, as they also have Iran at home. They’ve been so inconsistent they could get somewhere between 3 and 15 points from these matches, I think. In other words, they may comfortably qualify, or they could wind up in Tashkent next September really needing a result.
  • Uzbekistan will also play on the road three times, versus Syria, Iran, and China. They’ll be favorites in two of those three, but it will be really tough for them to get out of Tehran with any points. They also get Qatar and South Korea at home. I’d estimate they’ll get somewhere been 4 and 12 points, but I feel a bit better about their chances than I do for South Korea.

Over in Group B it’s not early as obvious how it’s going to go down, but the favorites would seem to be in a bit of trouble. Right now Saudi Arabia and Japan are tied with 10 points, followed by Australia and the United Arab Emirates with 9. The Blue Samurai and Socceroos still have some time to make up some ground, but they also still have to play each other. We’ll check back in on this in March.

CAF
There was some action in Africa this time around, but each team so far as only played 2 of 6 matches, so there’s a ways to go, and qualifying there doesn’t resume until next August. Some quick reactions, though:

  • Algeria is currently tied at the bottom of Group B with a single point.
  • In Group D, South Africa scored a pretty solid upset at home by beating Senegal 2-1.
  • In Group E, Egypt got some payback against the team that eliminated them last time around by beating Ghana 2-0 in Alexandria. The Pharaohs currently lead the group with 6 points, while the Black Stars have only 1.

CONCACAF
You know about what happened to the US already, so let’s talk about everyone else:

  • Last Friday every away team won their match, though the only one that was anything near a surprise was probably Panama 1, Honduras 0.
  • Los Canaleros then went back home and kept Mexico at bay, earning a 0-0 draw.
  • Trinidad and Tobago are so far playing the “sixth team that doesn’t really belong” role with a 2-0 loss at home to Costa Rica and then a 3-1 loss on the road against Honduras.

Again, we’re just two games into ten overall, so we’ll have more in the spring.

OFC
Oceania’s wacky qualification format means two teams didn’t even play this time around. The most shocking thing was probably New Zealand’s scoreless draw on the road against New Caledonia, but nonetheless the All-Whites should have this round wrapped up by the end of March. They’ll meet the winner of Group B in August.

UEFA
They Europeans have played only 4 matches of 10, so we’ll see them again in March. A quick survey of the groups:

  • In Group A, it looks like the Dutch are back, just behind France’s 10 points with 7 of their own. The question is if the Swedes will continue to stick around.
  • Group B is going to come down to Switzerland or Portugal. Right now the difference is Switzerland’s win at home to start the campaign, The two won’t meet again until the very last match of the round in October.
  • Germany remains completely in control of Group C, but hey, they at least put on a good show at San Marino last weekend (they won 8-0 in front of crowd of 3,500). Northern Ireland and Azerbaijan are fighting it out for the second spot, though the former did beat the latter 4-0.
  • In Group D, the Welsh have now drawn three straight games at Austria, versus Georgia, and versus Serbia. The group remains tight between Ireland, Serbia, and Wales.
  • In Group E, Montenegro’s darkhorse qualification campaign suffered a 3-2 setback in Armenia. Poland continued to cruise and Denmark, 4 points behind and in third place, continues to fight to stay in the mix.
  • In Group F, England beat Scotland 3-0 and remains at the top of the group, but clustered right behind them are Slovenia, Slovakia, and Lithuania.
  • Yes, Israel is currently just a point behind Italy and Spain with 9 points, but that already includes a loss at home to the Italians and they have to play two three more times. Group G may come down to Italy’s road game at Spain next September.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina stayed alive in Group H by picking up a point on the road against Greece, but this still Belgium’s to lose.
  • Last but definitely not least, they’re Group I, which remains the last predictable. Croatia did beat Euro 2016 darlings Iceland, but that was at home. There’s still a lot of games to be played here.

 That’s about it for now. Look for this column again in March!

Bowl Predictions 2016: Week 5

Get ’em while they’re… only a couple days old?

Anyway, yes, at lot of stuff happened, but frankly most of the scenarios I outlined last week are still in play. Really, most of the changes you see in this week’s predictions are because of two things. First, Texas A&M lost to Ole Miss. Second, Auburn lost to Georgia. So long, the SEC’s best hope of getting three teams into the CFP-controlled bowls! (TAMU could still do it, but I don’t see them beating LSU at this point.) Of course, that leaves me in the rather uncomfortable position of putting four (4!) Big Ten teams in those selfsame bowl games, so… check back next week when I hopefully have something more reasonable.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

  • South Carolina @ Florida (CBS): Neither of these teams is especially, er, gifted offensively, but I have a hard time predicting success for South Carolina’s very young quarterback against a reasonably good Florida defense.
  • Baylor @ Oklahoma (ABC/ESPN2): Sooners.
  • Pennsylvania State @ Indiana (ABC/ESPN2): The Hoosier’s are the Big Ten’s weekly trap game, and probably one of the hardest remaining contests for the Nittany Lions. That said, State’s been playing at a high enough level that they should win.
  • Mississippi State @ Alabama (ESPN): Yes, the Bulldogs upset Texas A&M, but that’s about where this train figures to stop.
  • West Virginia @ Texas (FS1): People are saying that this is a game that could save Charlie Strong’s job, but I’m pretty sure around Texas it’s thought that you should probably be beating West Virginia regardless. That said, I don’t really see Texas winning here.
  • Cincinnati @ Central Florida (ESPNU): Speaking of fired, I think it’s getting pretty close to the end of the line for Tommy Tuberville at Cincy.
  • Southern Methodist @ East Carolina (ESPNEWS): I don’t have a read on this game at all, so I’m going to default to ECU.
  • Iowa State @ Kansas (FSN): Hey, it’s a team Iowa State should probably actually beat!
  • Kentucky @ Tennessee (SEC): While I’d like to see Kentucky win the SEC East as much as anyone, realistically I have to go with the Vols.
  • Northwestern @ Purdue (BTN): Northwestern.
  • Tulsa @ Navy (CBSS): The Golden Hurricane can put their fair share of points, but I still like Navy here.

12:30: North Carolina State @ Syracuse (ACC): There’s probably only a couple of teams that have had more confusing seasons than NC State, but I still like them here.

2:00: Miami @ Virginia (ACC/RSN): The Cavs should continue to help the Canes get their mojo back.

3:30:

  • Army vs. Notre Dame (@San Antonio, TX; NBC): Notre Dame is super, really, not very good this year. Not even in the “oh, they’re overrated” sense, they’re bad. Army, meanwhile, is enjoying a pretty good season for Army. Unfortunately, I still have to go with the Domers in the Alamodome.
  • Auburn @ Georgia (CBS): It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, mostly because the South’s Oldest Rivalry is between North Carolina and Virginia. All that said, goodness me Georgia is so very mediocre this year, while Auburn is suddenly a machine. This shouldn’t be close.
  • Pittsburgh @ Clemson (ABC): Pitt has some good interior linemen and a couple of very good running backs, but none of this should present an obstacle to the Tigers.
  • Ohio State @ Maryland (ESPN): So I’m actually in Columbus, OH this week. I was here for the US-Mexico game which, uh, didn’t go so well. But I will probably be watching this one on TV with a bunch of Buckeye partisans, and I suspect they’ll at least go home happy with this one. That said, this Maryland team isn’t as terrible as they’ve been the past few years.
  • Illinois @ Wisconsin (ESPN2): Wisconsin.
  • Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (FS1): Both of these teams can score, and then add in that anyone can score against the Red Raiders, and, well…
  • Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (ESPNU): Speaking of teams with no defense, it’s us 🙁
    I don’t really have anything against Paul Johnson. I think he’s a good fit for this team and the school. But, practically speaking, I would understand if he got fired after this season, mostly because the main reason I don’t think he’d get fired is that the athletic department is currently paying two people to not coach basketball for us. Unlike, say, Charlie Strong, I don’t think Johnson is really even on the hotseat, but I would expect the heat to start getting turned if things don’t go well against UVA next weekend.
    All that said, I do think Ted Roof is gone after the season, regardless. It was generally thought this year’s defense couldn’t be much worse than last year’s, and we’ve been proven spectacularly wrong. Given that many issues seem to come down to coaching rather than talent (and remember, this is college, you can’t fire the players), I don’t see how he retains his position.
    So, yeah, this game! Well, VPI looks pretty good this year, but they’ve hit some occasional speedbumps that provide just a sliver of optimism up in Blacksburg. Just a sliver.
  • Vanderbilt @ Missouri (SEC): Am I actually about to pick Vandy in a SEC game. Yes I am!
  • Tulane @ Houston (CBSS): Houston.

4:00: Stanford @ Oregon (Pac12): I suspect there were many that circled this date on their calendar, and, well, things don’t always go according to plan. I still like Stanford there, though.

7:00:

  • Louisiana State @ Arkansas (ESPN): I’ve been learning a lot about the Golden Boot this week, namely, that the trophy is actually gold and it weighs a lot. Either way, I don’t think effects of Novembert will really take hold here and I like LSU.
  • Wake Forest @ Louisville (ESPN2): Look, Wake is halfway decent this year, but the only drama in this game is when Louisville will pull Lamar Jackson.
  • South Florida @ Memphis (ESPNU): I’ve been predicting Memphis will win here in all my bowl projections, so let’s stay consistent.
  • Boise State @ Hawaii (CBSS): The Broncos venture to Hawaii, hoping to stay relevant in the MWC Mountain division race. I think they will.

7:30:

  • Southern California @ Washington (FOX): Game of the Week! USC has rapidly improved (almost as much as Auburn) and is the best team by pure talent that UDub will face the entire rest of the season. I think the Huskies will get past this, but their defensive chops will be truly tested.
  • Mississippi @ Texas A&M (SEC): Both these teams are now down a starting quarterback, but I still like TAMU here.
  • Minnesota @ Nebraska (BTN): Technically, these two rivals are tied in the Big Ten West, but I think Nebraska should win easily.

8:00: Michigan @ Iowa (ABC): Speaking of winning easily, oof this could get ugly.

9:00: Oregon State @ California-Los Angeles (Pac12): UCLA has to be one of the most disappointing teams of 2016, right? The schedule offers a bit of a reprieve, as they should still be able to beat Oregon State.

10:00: Colorado @ Arizona (FS1): The #pac12afterdark window kicks off with, well, a likely easy Buffs victory. But still!

10:15:

  • New Mexico @ Utah State (ESPN2): I’m about to type that I’m picking New Mexico, which feels weird, but here we are: I’m picking New Mexixco.
  • Colorado State @ Air Force (ESPNU): I don’t think the Falcons are really all that good this year, while I still like the Rams.

10:30:

  • California @ Washington State (ESPN): Things figure to get trippy up on Pullman. Expect yards, expect points, but still expect a Wazzou victory.
  • San Diego State @ Nevada (CBSS): Aztecs.