Author Archives: ASimPerson

Bowl Games 2016: Let Us Begin

Yes, there’s been several bowl games already, but this week will contain the bulk of the games, and we’ll start to see teams from the power conferences. All in all, it’s starting to get exciting (well, sort of). Again, if you’d like to see my current progress and also just the TV information, see here.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, December 26
11:00: Miami vs. Mississippi State (St. Petersburg Bowl @ St. Petersburg, FL; ESPN): I don’t like applying the “OH” or “FL” tags for the two Miamis, generally hoping that context clues will provide what you need to know. Unfortunately, this bowl does have an ACC affiliation, so to be clear: it’s the one from Ohio. Anyway, Miss State is 5-7, but let’s face it, they should beat all but one, maybe two, MAC teams everyday and twice on Sundays. Miami is not one of those MAC teams.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is Miami’s first bowl game since the 2010-11 Godaddy Bowl, where they beat Middle Tennessee State 35-21. This is Miss State’s seventh straight bowl game, going back to a 52-14 win over Michigan in the 2010-11 Gator Bowl. The Bullldogs beat NC State 51-28 in the Belk Bowl last year.
Announcers: Dave LaMont and Rene Ingoglia

2:30: Maryland vs. Boston College (Quick Lane Bowl @ Detroit, MI; ESPN): No, remember that Maryland is in the Big Ten now. (I occasionally still have trouble with this, but more so for Nebraska.) Anyway, these two teams are pretty even: occasionally good defense and not a whole of offense. I have BC as a slight favorite.
Previous meetings: These teams have met 11 times, which seems low until you remember that BC only joined the ACC in 2004. Indeed, the two had only met twice before being conference mates from 2005-2013. BC has won the last 3 straight and is 8-3 overall, the most recent being a 29-26 win.
Last bowl game: This is the first bowl for the Terps since the 2014 Foster Farms Bowl, a 45-21 loss to Stanford. BC also last went to a bowl in 2014, losing 31-30 to Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Announcers: Mark Neely and Ray Bentley

5:00: North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt (Independence Bowl @ Shreveport, LA; ESPN2): Well, this is probably the most fun game of the day just by default. For starters, I count Shreveport, Louisiana as one of college football’s more ridiculous bowl venues. Secondly, these are both teams that are coming in hot, winners of two of their last three, including season ending victories over bitter rivals. So if you’re taking advantage of Boxing Day sales, then you may want decompress with this one on. Also, it’ll probably rain a lot in the second half. Fun! I’ve got the Wolfpack as a slight favorite.
Previous meetings: Just two. The first was in 1946, a 7-0 Vanderbilt win. The last was the 2012 Music City Bowl, which Vandy also won, 38-24.
Last bowl game: This is the Wolfpack’s third bowl game in a row. They lost last year’s Belk Bowl to Mississippi State 51-28. This is Vandy’s first bowl since the 2013-14 Birmingham Bowl, where they defeated Houston 41-24.
Announcers: Mike Couzens and Cole Cubelic

Tuesday, December 27
12:00: Army vs. North Texas (Heart of Dallas Bowl @ Dallas, TX; ESPN): I have a mental block about this game. Army is like a 10 point favorite. Yeah, sure, North Texas isn’t good or anything, but Army lost to this team by 17 points at home! Look, I’m a stats-oriented person and I know that head-to-head isn’t the best indicator of the quality of these two teams two months later. But, still, 17 points! I have the Mean Green here.
Previous meetings: Five, beginning in 1996-7, 2009-10, and then earlier this season. Army had won the first four, but UNT won back in October 35-18.
Last bowl game: This is Army’s first bowl game since the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl, wherein they defeated SMU 16-14. UNT’s last bowl game was this very game, back in the 2013-14 season. They defeated UNLV 36-14.
Announcers: Allen Bestick and Mike Bellotii

3:30: Temple vs. Wake Forest (Military Bowl @ Annapolis, MD; ESPN): Yes, Virginia Maryland, Wake Forest did actually qualify for a bowl game! Unfortunately for them, Temple is actually pretty good. I have the Owls all the way here.
Previous meetings: Just one, way back in 1930. Temple won 36-0.
Last bowl game: This is the second straight bowl game for the Owls. As far as I can tell, this is the first ever set of back-to-back bowls for them. They lost last year’s Boca Raton Bowl to Toledo 32-17. This is Wake’s first bowl game since the 2011 Music City Bowl, where they lost 23-17 to Mississippi State.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Kelly Stouffer

7:00: Minnesota vs. Washington State (Holiday Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): I find Wazzu to be one of the most vexing teams in college football, right down to how to spell their nickname. Regardless, it seems likely that they’ll run through and throw over Minnesota while the Gophers will be unable to return fire.
Previous meetings: Five, and all in the regular season, somewhat surprisingly: 1965, 1971, 1976, 1982, and 1988. Wazzu holds the 3-2 advatnage and won the last matchup 41-9.
Last bowl game: This is Minnesota’s fifth straight postseason game, going back to the 2012 Car Care Bowl, which they lost 34-31 to Texas Tech. They beat Central Michigan in last year’s Quick Lane Bowl 21-14. Washington State beat Miami (the one from the ACC) in last year’s Sun Bowl, 20-14.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Brock Huard

10:15: Boise State vs. Baylor (Cactus Bowl @ Phoenix, AZ; ESPN): Boise.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is the seventh straight bowl for the Bears, going back to a 38-14 loss to Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl. They beat North Carolina 49-38 in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl.
Announcers: Rece Davis, Joey Galloway, and David Pollack

Bowl Games 2016: No Stopping Until Christmas Day

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, December 19
2:30: Tulsa vs. Central Michigan (Miami Beach Bowl @ Miami, FL; ESPN): Something to watch if you’re working this week, I guess? I don’t really see CMU standing much of a chance against the Golden Hurricane.
Previous meetings: Two. In 1986, Tulsa won 42-6, but a year later the tables were turned with a 41-18 Central Michigan win.
Last bowl game: Tulsa lost last year’s cracker of an Independence Bowl 55-52 to Virginia Tech. This is CMU’s third straight bowl game. They lost last year’s Quick Lane Bowl 21-14 to Minnesota.
Announcers: Allen Bestwick and Mike Bellotti

Tuesday, December 20
7:00: Memphis vs. Western Kentucky (Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, FL; ESPN): This should be a fun game. Both of these teams like to score, all else be damned. Main factor may be the weather: there’s a chance of rain and both of these teams prefer to move through the air. Unlike, say, most of the rest of the country, temperatures won’t be an issue: expect the upper-70’s at kick-off. I’m very slightly leaning toward the Tigers.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is the third straight bowl for the Tigers. They lost to Auburn 31-10 in last year’s Birmingham Bowl. The Hilltoppers are now on a three game streak. They beat South Florida 45-35 in last year’s Miami Beach Bowl.
Announcers: Dave LaMont and Desmond Howard

Wednesday, December 21
9:00: Wyoming vs. Brigham Young (Poinsettia Bowl @ San Diego, CA; ESPN): I found this game really hard to call. Yeah, BYU is 8-4, but they don’t have an real notable wins, that is, they don’t have any wins over Boise State or San Diego State. Wyoming’s resume is not exactly sterling, either. As is often the case in this situation, I have a feeling it’ll be close. I’m leaning toward Wyoming.
Previous meetings: This one goes back a ways, to 1922 specifically when the teams met twice. Later, of course, both teams would be in the WAC and the Mountain West, but they haven’t met since BYU’s 25-20 win in 2010. The Cougars lead the overall series 44-30-3.
Last bowl game: Wyoming’s last bowl game was the 2011 New Mexico Bowl, which they lost to Temple 37-15. This is the 12th bowl game in a row for the Cougars, dating back to 35-28 loss to Cal in the 2005 Las Vegas Bowl. Last season, the Holy War was renewed in Sin City, but the Cougars lost 35-28.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Kelly Stouffer

Thursday, December 22
7:00: Colorado State vs. Idaho (Potato Bowl @ Boise, ID; ESPN): POTATO BOWL! Long-time fans (uh, let’s pretend fans should be plural and move on) of this site know about my deep-seating affection for this game. And who knows, this one could be best one since the last time Idaho played in this game (see below)! Unfortunately, I’m predicting a sort-of easy victory for Colorado State. The Rams have really come on as the season progressed and while this season has been wildly successful by Idaho standards they’re still, well, Idaho. (That said, if the Vandals win they should get a Mountain West invite. Seriously.)
Previous meetings: Seven relatively sporadic meetings. These teams first met in 1969, with the Rams winning 31-21. The series was renewed again in 1971, 1973, 1976, 1992, 2009, and finally 2010, with the Rams winning 36-34. Overall CSU holds a 4-3 series lead.
Last bowl game: This is CSU’s fourth straight bowl game, going back to a 48-45 victory over Washington State in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl. Last year, they lost 38-23 in the Arizona Bowl to Nevada (the ultimate “too many bowls” bowl game, seeing as how both teams are in the Mountain West). This is Idaho’s first bowl game since a memorably crazy 43-42 win over Bowling Green in the 2009 Humanitarian Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Neal and Matt Stinchcomb
Fun fact: This is Idaho’s third ever bowl game, and they’ve never played in anything other than the Humanitarian/Potato Bowl. Less fun is the potential for this to be Idaho’s less ever bowl game. The Vandals have faced difficulty finding a conference since the dissolution of the WAC for football, and next season will be their last before dropping back down to FCS.

Friday, December 23
1:00: Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion (Bahamas Bowl @ Nassau, Bahamas; ESPN): I wonder if there’s any prop bets on the amount of time Steve Levy and Mack Brown actually spend talking about this game. Either way, bowl games a novel concept for both of these teams, much less leaving the country, so maybe this one could be fun? I have ODU as a slight favorite.
Previous meetings: Surprisingly, these two teams should be pretty familiar with each other. Old Dominion won 17-3 in 2014 and 38-34 in 2015.
Last bowl game: This is Eastern Michigan’s first bowl game since the 1987 California Bowl, where they beat San Jose State 30-27. This is EMU’s second ever bowl appearance. This is Old Dominion’s first ever bowl game, though the school has only been a full FBS member since last season.
Announcers: Steve Levy and Mack Brown

4:30: Louisiana Tech vs. Navy (Armed Forces Bowl @ Fort Worth, TX; ESPN): For most of the season, Navy accumulated wins and brought their game to all-comers. But then the last few games of the season happened, especially the loss to Houston. If there’s a team that I’d think could regroup coming into bowl season, it’d be these guys, but nonetheless I keep seeing LaTech receivers running 4-verts right past too slow Navy defenders. 
Previous meetings: Just two. Navy won 32-14 in 2009 and 37-23 in 2010.
Last bowl game: This is LT’s third straight bowl game, going back to a 2014 win over Illinois in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Last season, they beat Arkansas State 47-28 in the New Orleans Bowl. This is Navy’s fifth straight bowl game, going back to 62-28 loss to Arizona State in the 2012 Fight Hunger Bowl. Last season they beat Pittsburgh 44-28 in the Military Bowl. Navy’s streak would be 14 straight bowl games but for a 5-7 campaign in 2011.
Announcers: Roy Philpott and Tom Ramsey

8:00: Ohio vs. Troy (Dollar General Bowl @ Mobile, AL; ESPN): Troy may have been the best team in the Sun Belt this year, but I don’t know what to make of their chances against a MAC team. That said, Ohio is pretty milquetoast, so I’ve got Troy, but barely.
Previous meetings: Just one, back in the 2010 New Orleans Bowl. Troy won 48-21.
Last bowl game: The Bobcats lost last year’s Camellia Bowl to Appalachian State 31-29. This is Troy’s first bowl appearance since the 2010 New Orleans Bowl, where they beat Ohio 48-21.
Announcers: Clay Matvick and Dusty Dvoracek

Saturday, December 24
8:00: Hawaii vs. Middle Tennessee State (Hawaii Bowl @ Honolulu, HI; ESPN): Maybe sip on a daiquiri and pretend your fireplace actually sounds like the sound of rolling waves as you watch this game? And since Hawaii’s playing in it, maybe there’ll actually be people there this year? Also, since when did Mark May do games anymore? I thought he was a studio guy for ABC’s coverage now? Maybe his name came up in the “gets to go to Hawaii” in the ESPN company lottery this year. Either way, I have MTSU has a pretty clear favorite here.
Previous meetings: Just one, back in 1993. The Rainbow Warriors won 35-14.
Last bowl game: It’s been awhile for Hawaii. Their last bowl game was a 62-35 loss to Tulsa in the 2010 edition of this game. MTSU lost 45-31 to Western Michigan in last year’s Bahamas Bowl.
Announcers: Chris Cotter and Mark May

Bowl Games 2016: Opening Slate

Predictions are being gradually updated on the site, but they may not be complete by the time games kick-off on Saturday. Nonetheless, let’s get this thing started.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Saturday, December 17
2:00: New Mexico vs. Texas-San Antonio (New Mexico Bowl @ Albuquerque, NM; ESPN): Bowl season kicks off featuring good ol’ Bob Davie’s option-lovin’ Lobos facing off against what figures to be an outmatched team somewhat ironically nicknamed the Roadrunners. (We’ll overlook at that New Mexico lost to Rutgers earlier this year.) I like Davie and Co. at home.
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: This is New Mexico’s second straight bowl game. They lost last year’s edition of this game 45-37 to Arizona. For the Roadrunners, this is the first bowl game in the school’s history at FBS, dating back to 2012.
Announcers: Adam Amin and Mack Brown

3:30: Houston vs. San Diego State (Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV; ABC): Look below, and yes sir, that’s Brent Musberger released from his SEC Network house arrest and let loose in Vegas. If you need to get wasted during the middle of a Saturday afternoon, take a swig anytime there’s an on-air gambling reference. As for the game, this is basically going to come down to whether not Houston shows up. If we get Oklahoma or Louisville Houston, then the Cougars win this one going away. If we get SMU Houston, well, it could get interesting. It’s easier to predict the former scenario than the latter scenario.
Previous meetings: Two, back in 1972 and 1973. Houston won both games, 49-19 and 14-9.
Last bowl game: This is Houston’s fourth straight bowl game, dating back to the 2013-14 Birmingham Bowl. With some 1-year gaps filled in, the streak would go all the way back to 2003, but alas. They defeated Florida State 38-24 in last season’s Peach Bowl.
Announcers: Brent Musberger and Jesse Palmer

5:30:

  • Toledo vs. Appalachian State (Camellia Bowl @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN): If it weren’t for that pesky bunch to the north and west of them, Toledo would be the team we’d be talking about out of the MAC this year. Alas, the Rockets have to settle for second best, and, as I’m predicting, a win over a potentially feisty Appalachian State team.
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game:     This is Toledo’s third straight bowl game. They beat Temple in last year’s Boca Raton Bowl 32-17. The Mountaineers beat Ohio in last year’s Camellia Bowl, 31-29.
    Announcers:     Eamon McAnaney and John Congemi
  • Central Florida vs. Arkansas State (Cure Bowl @ Orlando, FL; CBSS): I don’t care if Monday’s blue, Tuesday’s grey and Wednesday too
    Thursday I don’t care about you, it’s Friday I’m in love
                                          
    Monday you can fall apart, Tuesday Wednesday break my heart
    Thursday doesn’t even start, it’s Friday I’m in love

    Saturday wait, and Sunday always comes too late
    but Friday never hesitate…
                                          
    I don’t care if Monday’s black, Tuesday Wednesday heart attack
    Thursday never looking back, it’s Friday I’m in love
    Monday you can hold your head, Tuesday Wednesday stay in bed
    or Thursday watch the walls instead, it’s Friday I’m in love
                                          
    Saturday wait, and Sunday always comes too late
    but Friday never hesitate…
                                          
    Dressed up to the eyes, it’s a wonderful surprise
    To see your shoes and your spirits rise
    Throwing out your frown and just smiling at the sound
    and as sleek as a shriek spinning round and round
    Always take a big bite, it’s such a gorgeous sight
    to see you in the middle of the night
    You can never get enough, enough of this stuff
    It’s Friday I’m in love
    I’ve got UCF here.
    Previous meetings: Just one, back on October 5, 1991. UCF won 31-20.
    Last bowl game:     UCF had a pretty solid streak going before last year’s season-long debacle. Their last bowl game was the 2014 Bitcoin Bowl, where they lost 34-27 to NC State. This is Arkansas State’s sixth straight bowl game, dating back to the 2011-12 GoDaddy.com Bowl. They lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl to 47-28 to Louisiana Tech.
    Announcers:     Carter Blackburn and Aaron Taylor

9:00: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): For reasons elaborated on below, this is essentially the Ragin Cajun Bowl. They’ll get 30,000 folks there easy, but Hattiesburg isn’t too far away either (just up I-59!) and if there’s an early season bowl destination that sells itself, it’s New Orleans. Hopefully the on-the-field action will live up to the action off of it. I’m also predicting some temporarily bummed out Cajuns.
Previous meetings: This depends on how you definite it, but counting only games where both teams are considered “major” (i.e., equivalent to FBS), they’ve met 20 times since 1974, and Southern Miss is 16-4 in that time. When one or both of the teams was non-major, though, you can also include around 30 games between 1923 and 1974. So, basically, it depends on who you ask, but either way the Golden Eagles hold a sizeable lead.
Last bowl game: The Golden Eagles appeared in last year’s Heart of Dallas Bowl, losing 44-31 to Washington. The Ragin’ Cajuns had a nifty four-year bowl game streak snapped last season, their last appearance was a 16-3 win over Nevada in the 2014 New Orleans Bowl. They have never appeared in any other bowl game.
Announcers: Jason Benetti and Rod Gilmore

Bowl Predictions 2016: Final

At least, the final edition of the predictions are available. I’ll note that they’re not neccessary set in stone. After I wake up this morning, I will begin scanning my newsfeeds for any updated information as the dominoes of the bowl games fall into place. So let’s hit the highlights:

  • I redid a lot of the ACC’s bowl games to reflect two things. First, it seems likely that Georgia Tech will get a bid to the Taxslayer Bowl, 10 years after our previous appearance in what was then the Gator Bowl. (Hopefully it goes better this time.) I was also persuaded by the arguments for the Backyard Brawl in the Russell Athletic Bowl, but if the RAB isn’t then Virginia Tech probably slides up into that slot.
  • I’m sticking to my guns with regards to the top-4 for the playoffs: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington. I think the only argument is for Penn State over Ohio State. Even if this gets weird later today, the damage will only be contained to the CFP-controlled bowls, unless Washington winds up in the Rose. 
  • I made some other changes based off rumors, like Houston playing San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They came form ESPN folks, though, and they own almost all the bowl games, so if anyone has an inside track, it’s them.

That’s all I have for now. I’ve explained my process before, and I’m out of things to explain. All that’s next is to wait.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 14

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday
7:00: Ohio vs. Western Michigan (Mid-American Conference Championship @ Detroit, MI; ESPN2): By any reasonable measure, Western Michigan should win easily. However, I can’t help but think back to the 2013 MAC title game, where an unranked Bowling Green beat an undefeated Northern Illinois 47-27. That said, yeah, you can’t reasonably pick against the Broncos here.

9:00: Washington vs. Colorado (Pac-12 Championship @ Santa Clara, CA; FOX): Strangely, an upset here probably results in overall less intrigue, since Colorado will just slide right into the Rose Bowl. Instead, all the drama is in the Huskies winning. That said, a win here would give Washington a pretty solid victory for the ol’ strength-of-schedule, and they would be a conference champion. Would that be enough to ensure their spot? I think so. And while I think these Buffs are pretty good, I think Washington is just a bit better.

Saturday
Noon:

  • Temple @ Navy (American Athletic Conference Championship; ABC): If you like keeping the ball on the ground, this is the game for you. Featuring two of the best rushing attacks in the country, passing will be at a premium. That said, I think the Owls are better matchup for Navy than South Florida would’ve been, and I think they’ll be able to prevail at home.
  • Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky (Conference USA Championship; ESPN): If you like to see the pigskin spending most of the afternoon in the air, well then good news! Featuring two attacks that absolutely like to fling out it around, consequences be damned, this game figures to be a rollicking good 62-58 kind of time. In that scenario, I like the Hilltoppers.
  • Troy @ Georgia Southern (ESPN2): Southern enters this game on a four game losing streak that doesn’t figure to stop there.
  • Kansas State @ Texas Christian (FS1): With the two teams otherwise through the rest of the Big 12 schedule, they enter pretty darn close when it comes to most statistical categories, so I figure this a coin flip. In that case, I like K-State’s chances.

12:30: Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (FOX): It’s Bedlam! And honestly, I don’t figure this one to be especially crazy. Oklahoma has been pretty good this year! While Oklahoma State is 8-1 in conference, they haven’t exactly dominated the way the Sooners have (seriously, as fluky as that Central Michigan loss was, they should’ve also lost to Texas Tech). I’ve got the Sooners all the way here.

3:30: Baylor @ West Virginia (FS1): West Virginia.

4:00: Alabama vs. Florida (Southeastern Conference Championship @ Atlanta, GA; CBS): Seriously, SEC, just move Alabama (and Auburn) to the East and be done with it. Bama should roll.

7:30: Arkansas State @ Texas State (ESPN2): Texas State is basically the Rutgers of the Sun Belt, so the Red Wolves should roll easily.

7:45: San Diego State @ Wyoming (Mountain West Conference Championship; ESPN): the Aztecs ventured up to Laramie two weeks ago and had a chance to tie with the clock expired with an extra point. Instead, they opted for the two point conversion, which failed. Since then, both these teams have fallen backward into the game. SDSU’s position as West champs was never in any doubt, but they lost to Colorado State last week kinda badly (63-31!). Wyoming, meanwhile, is here mainly because Boise State had the courtesy to lose to Air Force the day before they got bowled over by New Mexico. So, basically, I don’t know what to expect here, except that the San Diego State players are probably going to be very, very cold, with the temperature expected to be somewhere around 20 degrees (Fahrenheit!) at kickoff. So good luck with that, and I like Wyoming here.

8:00:

  • Clemson vs. Virginia Tech (Atlantic Coast Conference Championship @ Orlando, FL; ABC): Hey, remember that time North Carolina totally recovered an onside kick to have a chance at beating Clemson in the ACC title game last year? All I’m saying is that, for maybe only the third or fourth time all year, the Tigers need to come to play, lest they need to get bailed out again. It’s not a good look.
  • Wisconsin vs. Pennsylvania State (Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN; FOX): So, yeah, this is totally the Big Ten title game we all expected a few weeks ago. Well, okay, it half is, since Wisconsin is pretty good and was a pretty expected pick to win the Big Ten West at that point. Instead, it was the East not holding up its end of the bargain, the circumstances of which we’re all familiar with at this point. So who’s going win this game? I have to say, I’m still skeptical on Penn State. Yes, they beat Ohio State, but (for the umpteenth time) the transitive property does not apply to college football. Also, it wasn’t like the Nittany Lions went out there and dominated the Buckeyes: they were outgained by over 200 yards and needed some special teams luck to win the game. On the balance, the Badgers’ defense was second only to Michigan’s in the Big Ten. They’re a force to be reckoned with, and in a different year Wisconsin would be coming into this undefeated. I like the Badgers here.