Author Archives: ASimPerson

This Weekend in College Football: Week 0

Okay, a quick note about how the weekend previews work. For starters, we started this as a watch guide. So the idea is to relay when games are on and give you (the reader) an idea of what’s good and what’s maybe worth doing the dishes during. Here’s the basic format:

  • The time
  • The matchup, with FCS teams in italics (and note that usually FCS vs. FCS games are omitted, and previews will not be provided for almost all FCS games)
  • The title of the game, if it has one
  • The location of the game, if it’s not a home game
  • The network or streaming service the game is available on (note that streaming games will not have previews)
  • And the preview, subject to the conditions above

Hopefully that made sense!

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

2:30: Navy vs. Notre Dame (@Dublin, Ireland; NBC): Once again, the Irish champion will be decided. Last year, Northwestern defeated Nebraska, resulting in the somewhat hilarious stat that Northwestern was 1-0 in Ireland and 0-11 everywhere else. While great things aren’t projected for the Midshipmen this year, it’s safe to say they probably won’t go 0-for-North America.

3:30: Mercer vs. North Alabama (FCS Kickoff @ Montgomery, AL; ESPN)

5:30: Texas-El Paso @ Jacksonville State (CBSS): Welcome to FBS, Jacksonvile State! It will often bear repeating the next few years that they are a school in Jacksonville, AL and not the much larger city to the southeast of them. Either way, while UTEP’s fate is uncertain this year, the Miners are favorites here.

7:00:

  • Massachusetts @ New Mexico State (ESPN): UMass is still independent, but the Aggies are back in the new look CUSA (officially without the dash this year, by the way). While neither of these teams is exactly good, things look good for the home team here.
  • Ohio @ San Diego State (FS1): Hopefully the Bobcats enjoy the weather down in San Diego, because they’re not especially likely to enjoy this matchup.

7:30:

  • Hawaii @ Vanderbilt (SEC): Speaking of home teams, Vanderbilt’s finally revamping their home field, which is one the few places other than Bobby Dodd Stadium I’ve ever seen a college football game. And, well, by any conference’s standard, much less the SEC’s, it was sorely needed. At any rate, we’re talking about the stadium here because the action on the field… not so much. The Dores should roll.
  • South Carolina State vs. Jackson State (MEAC/SWAC Challenge @ Atlanta, GA; ABC)

8:00: San Jose State @ Southern California (Pac12): Naturally, USC’s last season in the Pac-12 sees them kick off on the Pac-12 Network, which basically no one (other than me, apparently) gets. At any rate, this Spartan-on-Trojan violence will likely have a fairly predictable outcome.

9:00: Florida International @ Louisiana Tech (CBSS): Finally, we have… no idea how to project this one. This starts at 6PM Pacific, so this might be the only one of these games I actually get to watch live, so it’ll be on. Going with the Techies out of Ruston, LA just out of solidarity, I suppose.

 

Rating the 2023 Non-Conference Slate

Buckle up, let’s go. For more about what this is, see the intro post.

ACC

  1. Pittsburgh (2 legit, 1 FCS): Wofford, Cincinnati, @West Virginia, @Notre Dame. This is a pretty solid schedule, and of course we adore the return of the Backyard Brawl. I also like that they got another Ohio River Valley team on the schedule in Cincy. Of course, there’s still a lot of questions about what to do regarding Notre Dame and the ACC, but for now it still counts.
  2. Florida State (2, 1): N-Louisiana State, Southern Mississippi, North Alabama, @Florida. Once again, the opening weekend helmet game is going to be FSU-LSU. And those helmets are likely going to be sweaty, because that game is going to be in Orlando in September.
  3. Louisville (1.75, 1): Murray State, N-Indiana, Notre Dame, Kentucky. Mostly up here for having three power-5 teams, even though we usually discount traditional rivals and. That said, while we don’t like the neutral site (it’s in Indianapolis) intersection matchups, while that still has any meaning, is something we like.
  4. Georgia Tech (1.75, 1): South Carolina State, @Mississippi, Bowling Green, Georgia. Obviously, I’ll talk more about us in the Week 1 preview next week, but I’m actually kind of excited about this season? I think at a minimum the Ole Miss game is going to be more competitive this year.
  5. Clemson (1.25, 1): Charleston Southern, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame, @South Carolina. This is strictly just fine, and Clemson-Notre Dame should actually be a banger.
  6. Virginia (1, 1.5): N-Tennessee, James Madison, @Maryland, William & Mary. Virginia playing Maryland is going to do nothing to help me remember that Maryland is still technically not in the ACC anymore. Also, again, bleh to the neutral site (this one is in Nashville).
  7. Miami (1, 1): Miami, Texas A&M, Bethune-Cookman, @Temple. Miami is not playing themselves, no. (Though arguably part of the issue with the Canes the past several season is that they do tend to beat themselves.) Instead, no, we get Miami (a medium-sized liberal arts school in Ohio) versus Miami (a medium-sized liberal arts school in Florida) for only the fourth time in history. (Again, more on this next week.) TAMU heading down to Miami should also be, well, interesting. The Temple game in Philadelphia is odd: it appears to be a straight-home-and-away, where I would’ve normally expected it to be a 2-for-1.
  8. Wake Forest (1, 1): Elon, Vanderbilt, @Old Dominion, @Notre Dame. Wake keeps the part of the schedule they can control manageable.
  9. Duke (1, 1): Lafayette, Northwestern, @Connecticut, Notre Dame. As does Duke.
  10. North Carolina State (1, 1): @Connecticut, Notre Dame, VMI, Marshall. The Huskies don’t appear to be on the cusp of joining the ACC, but they’ve got a couple of games in North Carolina to start their season. While I like their chances against Duke, um, the Wolfpack not so much.
  11. North Carolina (0.5, 1): N-South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota, Campbell. This schedule didn’t grade out very well, but I think it could be fun. I sorta feel like North Carolina and South Carolina should play every year. And of course App State gave Mack Brown and company a huge headache last year. The Gophers are here as well! This is fun as a neutral, but as a Carolina fan you may be wondering what your AD was thinking.
  12. Virginia Tech (0.25, 0): Old Dominion, Purdue, @Rutgers, @Marshall. Virginia Tech is in real danger of losing multiple of these games. It may be a long year in Blacksburg.
  13. Syracuse (0.25, 1): Colgate, Western Michigan, @Purdue, Army. There could be some points scored in that Cuse-Purdue game. Depending on how the season is going for these teams, that may be one to keep an eye on.
  14. Boston College (0, 1): Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, Army, Connecticut. Travel isn’t really a consideration for BC since they’re all home games here, but even then getting three regional opponents is definitely one way to do this.

Big Ten

  1. Ohio State (1 legit, 1 FCS): Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, @Notre Dame. Okay, Ohio State playing Notre Dame again is extremely legit, but overall I don’t feel like we’re starting that strong here in the B1G compared to some other conferences.
  2. Michigan State (1, 1): Central Michigan, Richmond, Washington. Naturally, most of the intrigue of a B1G vs. Pac-12 matchout outside of the Rose Bowl is gone since, well, this will be a conference game in the near future. Alas.
  3. Nebraska (0.5, 0): @Colorado, Northern Illinois, Louisiana Tech. While it doesn’t count for much on our scorecard, these days Nebraska playing any of their old Big 8 rivals feels right. They’ll play the Buffs again next season, but eschew their former conference-mates until they crank up the Oklahoma series again in 2029.
  4. Minnesota (0.5, 0): Eastern Michigan, @North Carolina, Louisiana. Apropos of nothing, UMN and Carolina have never played before! If there’s anything I like more than traditional rivalries, it’s at least thinking outside the box.
  5. Purdue (0.25, 0): Fresno State, @Virginia Tech, Syracuse. While the Boilermakers will take a trip out to Blacksburg, they should consider playing their true ACC engineering rivals down in Atlanta. Or inviting them to join the conference. Just saying.
  6. Iowa (0.25, 0): Utah State, @Iowa State, Western Michigan. Iowa has had basically no good news this offseason. For starters, their nepo-tastic offensive coordinator, Brian Ferentz, has a contract that the entire college football universe will be watching closely: whether Iowa, as a team, can score 25 points per game. Note: we’re not talking about offensive points, we’re talking the whole team. Will Brian’s job as OC be saved by Iowa’s usually competent special teams and usually very good scoring defense? (Reminder: the term “Iowa touchdown” was coined last season when the Hawkeyes beat South Dakota State 7-3 with two safeties and a field goal.) Then there’s the latest craze that has recently taken over the only state in  the Union with exactly 99 counties: gambling on amateur athletics. By said amateur athletes. Now, while normally I would say this is a case of NCAA overreach (which, well, we don’t get to say a lot these days) the issue is that more than a few of the players involved where gambling on their own sport (bad) and on games they were involved (real bad!). Iowa has 11 players being investigated currently. There’s more to come on that story for sure.
  7. Maryland (0.25, 1): Towson, Charlotte, Virginia. Maryland playing Virginia is going to do nothing to help me remember that Maryland is still technically not in the ACC anymore.
  8. Pennsylvania State (0.25, 1): West Virginia, Delaware, Massachusetts. The Big Ten East will presumably not exist after this season (they’re going to have to integrate the new Big Ten Actually West somehow, hence the “presumably”), and while I like them playing WVU, this is really to set up Penn State taking one last shot at not finishing third in the East.
  9. Rutgers (0.25, 1): Temple, Virginia Tech, Wagner. Speaking of teams that I keep forgetting are in the Big Ten, Rutgers may actually be somewhat competent this year. This normally would lead me to say something like “so keep an eye on events in Piscataway” but let’s face it, by the time November rolls around and they’re losing by 30+ to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State again you’ll be able to safely forget them.
  10. Wisconsin (0, 0): Buffalo, @Washington State, Georgia Southern. Y’all. This, once again, should be a legendary drinking matchup on the Palouse.
  11. Illinois (0, 0): Toledo, @Kansas, Florida Atlantic. Okay, I may have said something earlier about odd matchups, but Illinois-Kansas stretches credulity for me.
  12. Indiana (0, 1): Indiana State, N-Louisville, Akron. Just going ahead and getting the “wrong sport!” joke out of the way for Indiana-Louisville, because, um, also it’s been a minute since even the basketball angle of that matchup would’ve made sense?
  13. Northwestern (0, 1): Texas-El Paso, @Duke, Howard. I don’t really have an opinions left about these schedules. Well, okay, one more:
  14. Michigan (0, 0): East Carolina, Nevada-Las Vegas, Bowling Green. So even though none of these teams are technically FCS, I still ranked Michigan last because come on. And of course it just works out so for Harbaugh’s self-imposed three game suspension it doesn’t even involve any conference games. (Also, the only reason Michigan is sort of even “getting away” with the Harbaugh thing in the first place is because, well, the investigation is really dumb.)

Big 12

  1. West Virginia (1.25, 1): @Pennsylvania State, Duquesne, Pittsburgh. West Virginia doubles-down on their northerly neighbor rivalries this season. But that said, Penn State doesn’t produce quite the same feeling. Also, there’s a fair chance the Nittany Lions will beat the pants off of the ‘Neers.
  2. Texas (1, 0): Rice, @Alabama, Wyoming. Somehow, it was all the way back in 2010 when I first referenced JFK’s most famous speech, where one of the concepts compared to doing things “not because they are easy, but because they are hard” was “why does Rice play Texas?” That was before Texas A&M and Mizzou left the conference! That was before I knew that the “A&M” in “Texas A&M” doesn’t actually stand for anything! Maybe more importantly, this somehow serves to drive home the point of how long I’ve been writing this series. Oh, and also, speaking of things robbed of some joy by pending conference realignment, Texas and Alabama play again this year, and if it’s anything like last year, well, we’ll still think about how rad of a one-off that game is before we realize that it’ll stop being special soon.
  3. Texas Tech (1, 1): @Wyoming, Oregon, Tarleton State. This doesn’t seem like the kind of schedule if you want to hit the ground running at Texas Tech, especially that trip up to Laramie.
  4. Baylor (1, 1): Texas State, Utah, Long Island. We’re going to get to Utah in a moment. The rest of this schedule is going to be 2 wins for the Bears, but, yeah, Utah coming to Waco is going to be thing. Again, more in a moment.
  5. Iowa State (0.75, 1): Northern Iowa, Iowa, @Ohio. Iowa State plays UNI a lot, and as far as I know, UNI is not included in the wide-ranging investigation into Iowa public university athletes being investigated for gambling. Iowa State has now had multiple players dismissed, if that helps give you an idea. Also, as far as I can tell Iowa State-Ohio is a home-and-home, which seems odd. I need to see if there’s a way if I can figure if that’s becoming more common or if there were some non-con games in 2020 that were canceled.
  6. Texas Christian (0.5, 1): Colorado, Nicholls State, Southern Methodist. TCU and SMU don’t want to play for the Iron Skillet anymore, which makes me sad.
  7. Brigham Young (0.25, 1.5): Sam Houston State, Southern Utah, Arkansas. Wow, we got all the way down here before we got to the first of the Big 12’s new arrivals? Well, howdy. The Stormin’ Mormons start off pretty easy with a team moving up from FCS, and then a team still solidly in FCS. There could definitely be some beef on both sides in that Arkansas game too, so I wouldn’t discount them.
  8. Central Florida (0.25, 1): Kent State, @Boise State, Villanova. I’m sure Boise won’t be bitter at all that UCF got called up before they did. Not at all.
  9. Cincinnati (0.25, 1): Eastern Kentucky, @Pittsburgh, Miami. Again, we endorse Pitt playing other Ohio River Valley schools. Feels correct. In fact, you almost sort of wonder if Pitt, Cincy, WVU, and, I dunno, Syracuse and UConn could be in a conference? It’d make a certain amount of sense, and the basketball would be good too. Alas, that’s probably just too pure for this world.
  10. Oklahoma (0, 0): Arkansas State, Southern Methodist, @Tulsa. A perfectly cromulent schedule for Brent Venable’s second season in charge of the Sooners. The question is if the defense is still going to be fixed in the three games after these ones.
  11. Kansas (0, 1): Missouri State, Illinois, @Nevada. So KU goes to Reno this year and the Wolf Pack return in… 2029? I, or more correctly, fbschedules.com, must be missing something.
  12. Oklahoma State (0, 1): Central Arkansas, @Arizona State, South Alabama. As usual, another team will consider Arizona State, and again, I’ll wonder how many players want to pull a “Cuban national team visits the US and half the team defects” and stay in Tempe after the game.
  13. Kansas State (0, 1): Southeast Missouri State, Troy, @Missouri. The wrong Kansas is playing Mizzou.
  14. Houston (0, 0.5): Texas-San Antonio, @Rice, Sam Houston State. I had to rate this schedule lower than Oklahoma State and K-State because none of these are Power 5 teams, but if UTSA is still has any magic left this could be fun. Also, I think it’s kind of funny Houston will go across town to play in the Rice Bowl Stadium.

Pac-12

  1. Utah (1.5, 1): Florida, @Baylor, Weber State. Okay, I personally think we underrate Baylor a little bit, because for a schedule that doesn’t involve any traditional rivals this is crazy pants. There just has to be story out there how this happened… was one of the games put off because of 2020 and this was the only year that worked? Either way, Florida and Baylor’s likely pain (because the Utes love to bring it on defense) is going to be our gain. If they go undefeated against this schedule, we have to be looking out for national title contender Utah, right?
  2. Colorado (1, 0): @Texas Christian, Nebraska, Colorado State. Plausible Texas trip and two traditional rivals, you love to see it. Though I suspect it’s going to be a quick introduction to Deion that things are a tad different up at FBS and in Boulder.
  3. Washington (1, 0): Boise State, Tulsa, @Michigan State. In a game some (not just me (really)) are already dubbing “The Chris Peterson Classic”, I expect to see plenty of Broncos blue when I’m in Seattle next weekend. I otherwise already covered my feelings about that trip to East Lansing.
  4. Southern California (1, 0): San Jose State, Nevada, @Notre Dame. By USC standards, this isn’t that ambitious of a schedule, since Notre Dame is a yearly game.
  5. California (1, 1): @North Texas, Auburn, Idaho. I really need to start looking into tickets for that Cal-Auburn game. Oh and also, that Cal-UNT is a home-and-home, though the first game was in 2019, so there definitely could’ve been scheduling issues.
  6. Washington State (1, 1): @Colorado State, Wisconsin, Northern Colorado. Another one! I’m going to stop commenting on the P5-G5 straight-up home-and-homes now. Again, I will adore the idea of the Badgers on the Palouse on a September night, and I hope to the game lives up to that.
  7. Stanford (1, 1): @Hawaii, Sacramento State, Notre Dame. Stanford goes to Hawaii and doesn’t take advantage of being able to schedule an extra game. I know that doesn’t happen a lot these days, but still.
  8. Arizona State (0.75, 1): Southern Utah, Oklahoma State, Fresno State. Arizona State is not projected to be good this year, and this schedule isn’t going to help dispel that notion.
  9. Arizona (0, 1): Northern Arizona, @Mississippi State, Texas-El Paso. I have no idea how that trip to Miss State will pan out for Arizona, but regardless between that and heading to UTEP this is fine even if it’s not rated super highly.
  10. Oregon (0, 1): Portland State, @Texas Tech, Hawaii. Meanwhile, I wonder what the heck Oregon is thinking. The Ducks usually do pretty well in these ratings, so this is… well, it’s not very exciting.
  11. California-Los Angeles (0, 1): Coastal Carolina, @San Diego State, North Carolina Central. While Coastal and SDSU don’t rate in our ratings, that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous. UCLA might be playing with fire here, especially against the Aztecs.
  12. Oregon State (0, 1): @San Jose State, California-Davis, San Diego State. On the one hand, “undefeated Oregon State in the last year of the Pac-12 as we know it” is something that I think a lot of us in college football are rooting for; on the other, playing the Aztecs and a very game UC-Davis squad from FCS doesn’t strike us helping the cause. Well, you know, unless it does.

SEC

  1. Florida (2, 1): @Utah, McNeese State, Charlotte, Florida State. What up Gators?!? Not only are you actually venturing west of the Mississippi River for once (excepting those trips to Baton Rouge) you’re going all the way to Salt Lake to play a team that very, very much wants to hit you in the sternum repeatedly. Um, good luck with that!
  2. South Carolina (1.5, 1.5): N-North Carolina, Furman, Jacksonville State, Clemson. Again, that is the Jacksonville that’s in Alabama.
  3. Alabama (1, 1): Middle Tennessee State, Texas, @South Florida, Tennessee-Chattanooga. We already extolled the virtues of Bama-Texas, so, um, well… at least the Blue Raiders and Mocs have pretty straightforward drives to Tuscaloosa?
  4. Texas A&M (1, 1): New Mexico, @Miami, Louisiana-Monroe, Abilene Christian. The trip to south Florida should be fun for the Aggies, and the heat and humidity shouldn’t be a surprise. Nonetheless, the main thing for them through these first three games is any sign that there’s improvement on the offense.
  5. Louisiana State (1, 1): N-Florida State, Grambling State, Army, Georgia State. Let’s see, we already talked about the sweat aspect of FSU-LSU, so for this one let’s see if the main thing that really throws LSU’s 2023 campaign off kilter isn’t an SEC opponent, but Army.
  6. Mississippi (0.5, 1): Mercer, @Tulane, Georgia Tech, Louisiana-Monroe. Ole Miss throws in a couple of former SEC rivals, well, actually one because we never played Ole Miss a lot. But at any rate, Ole Miss-Tulane was a thing back in the day, and I think it’s cool they’ll make the trip down to New Orleans. As for Lane and Co, they’ll be fine this year, but it remains to be seen if it’ll be fine enough to finally get Lane that actual big time job he wants.
  7. Missouri (0.5, 1): South Dakota, Middle Tennessee State, Kansas State, Memphis. Mizzou almost put together a schedule featuring teams entirely from bordering states, and yet, they still picked the wrong Kansas team. The mind boggles.
  8. Tennessee (0.25, 1): N-Virginia, Austin Peay, Texas-San Antonio, Connecticut. I’m just going to warn you know: I’m going be talking about Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton’s arm a lot this year. It is really the Arm of Destiny in college football this year, and it’s perhaps the only thing that can stop both Bama and Georgia. No pressure.
  9. Vanderbilt (0.25, 1): Hawaii, Alabama A&M, @Wake Forest, @Nevada-Las Vegas. Scheduling two out-of-conference road games as a SEC team seems kind of hard, especially considering that one of them is UNLV. That said, the previous matchup against UNLV was 2018, so I’m willing to admit it was probably a 2020 thing. I knew I said I wasn’t going to revisit this, but it’s the only explanation.
  10. Georgia (0.25, 1): Tennessee-Martin, Ball State, Alabama-Birmingham, @Georgia Tech. This is not exactly an ambitious schedule for a national title contender.
  11. Auburn (0, 1): Massachusetts, @California, Samford, New Mexico State. Neither is this, though granted Auburn isn’t trying to win a national title this year. Well, at least according to any reasonable fan.
  12. Mississippi State (0, 1): Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona, Western Michigan, Southern Mississippi. While we’re talking about the bottom of the barrel for the SEC, at least getting a Pac-12 team to head to Starkville is neat.
  13. Arkansas (0, 1): Western Carolina, Kent State, Brigham Young, Florida International. I don’t know that having BYU come to Fayetteville is necessarily a good idea, but y’all do you, Arkansas.
  14. Kentucky (0, 1): Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, @Louisville. And finally, the main drama in Kentucky’s schedule is mostly whether or not Jeff Brohm has the Cardinals looking like a competent outfit by the time Thanksgiving rolls around.

And now we’re just going to go ahead and wrap this thing up, because up next is going to be the Week 0 preview!

The usual admonishment for playing more than 1 FCS team doesn’t apply this year. While several are marked as “1.5” above, I use that to indicate that one of teams is moving up from FCS and so they may not count for bowl eligibility and the like.

Next up, teams that play more than one Power Five team, excluding Notre Dame and ACC teams as well as traditional rivalries:

  • Pittsburgh (Cincinnati, @West Virginia)
  • Virginia (@Tennessee, Maryland)
  • North Carolina (South Carolina, Minnesota)
  • Virginia Tech (Purdue, Rutgers)
  • Utah (Florida, @Baylor)
  • Colorado (@Texas Christian, Nebraska)
  • West Virginia (@Pennsylvania State, Pittsburgh)
  • Purdue (@Virginia Tech, Syracuse)

Thanks to all of the above for doing something interesting!

And finally, each conference’s average rating for their OOC schedules:

  1. ACC (0.263)
  2. Pac-12 (0.23)
  3. Big 12 (0.149)
  4. SEC (0.147)
  5. Big Ten (0.101)

The Pac-12 maintains a solid rating, but the ACC really stepped it up this season.

This likely does it for the concept of the “Power Five”, and for the last decade or so of college football it’s been a useful framework, even if the sport wasn’t, and isn’t, that easily split into two categories. There’s a lot of change in front of us in the college football world, and I still fear that it won’t quite be the same after this season.

That said, I still think of that as cause to go out and enjoy this season. I plan to see at least one game in person. Up next, we’ll preview Week 0, and then talk about a pretty packed Labor Day weekend slate. See you then!

Rating the 2023 Non-Conference Slate: Intro

Welcome back.

We’re here once again for what will possibly the final season of college football as we know it. Perhaps the best way to explain why is to just show all the conference moves for this year and next.

Big 12

This season, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston move from the American to the Big 12. BYU also joins the party after a stint as an independent.

Next season? Hold on to your 5-gallon hats. Texas and Oklahoma are off to the SEC, but a convoy arrives from the west. Colorado rejoins several of their former Big 8/12 conference-mates, along with fellow Pac-12 refugees Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State.

Big Ten

No moves this year. Next season will see UCLA and USC, and to just further put the “west” in “midwest” Oregon and Washington also join.

Pac-“12”

So, for those of you scoring at home, that leaves just four schools in the Pac-12 for the 2024 season: Oregon State, Washington State, Cal, and Stanford. At press time, nothing has happened in terms of the Pac-12 either trying to survive or just these four desperately trying to find a lifeboat elsewhere.

SEC

As previously mentioned, the Southeastern conference is still staying relatively, well, Southeastern and just adding Texas and Oklahoma. But something is probably going to happen.

But wait, there’s more

Moving around isn’t just a power-conference thing. First, the American had to bring in some teams to replace the schools they lost, and they did so by raiding Conference USA. Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA all moved for this season. Conference USA responded by adding two independents (Liberty, which heretofore was thought to be too weird to get into a conference, and New Mexico State, which was thought to be remote and poor) and calling two schools up from the FCS level: Jacksonville State (note: located in Alabama) and Sam Houston State. Plus, they’ll add the favorite team of the Atlanta exurbs, Kennesaw State, in 2024. These latter three are subject to FCS-to-FBS transition rules. Note that James Madison over in the Sun Belt is also still affected by said rule this season.

All these changes mean that the only remaining FBS independents are Army, Notre Dame, UConn, and UMass.

ACC?

The ACC has a media rights deal that lasts until 2036, which means that despite Florida State’s very loud complaints, making the ACC somehow the most stable conference. Well, at least until they poach Stanford or something.

About the Ratings

So now back to the meat of this post. Each offseason, my brother and I rate every Power 5 team on the basis of how excited you’d be to see that team on your non-conference schedule. The possible ratings are “no rating”, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. “1” is the best, as evidenced by the list of 22 teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, UCLA, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin. The new team for this season is Tennessee, which, well, we really missed that one last year as we had them as a 0.25. Suffice it to say after their season last year, we have fixed this, and they’re back as a 1 for the first time since 2011. Good on you, Vols.

Also, the Big 12 pipped 3 of the Group of 5 teams we rated last year, so now the only ones that earned a rating at all were Tulane (0.25) and Boise State (0.25). This is the first time the Green Wave have ever earned a rating (it tends to help when you, say, beat USC in the Sugar Bowl).

How does each conference fare in terms of the ratings? Well, let’s see:

  1. Southeastern (0.625)
  2. Pacific-12 (0.5)
  3. Big 12 (0.482)
  4. Big Ten (0.464)
  5. Atlantic Coast (0.375)

Okay, so hopefully that whets your appetite to look at these non-conference schedules. We’ll dive right into with the next post. Onward!

Bowl Games 2022: Final

The tracking page is up-to-date for all of the other 41 bowl games. All that’s left is the final.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 9

7:30: Texas Christian vs. Georgia (College Football Playoff Championship Game @ Inglewood, CA; ESPN): I have a bad feeling about this. I watch both of the semi-finals intently, and enjoyed the most competitive pair of semis in the history of the playoff. That said, the way the two games went does not provide me much hope for this one. I think that TCU played extremely well and frustrated Michigan, but the Wolverines also shot themselves in the foot plenty. Georgia doesn’t really shoot themselves in the foot. While TCU’s defense did plenty of frustrate Michigan, I think Georgia’s freakish tight ends present tremendous matchup issues for the undersized Horned Frogs defense. Ohio State had the talent at quarterback and wide receiver to actually beat the best defense in the country. TCU relies much more on running the ball. This just doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the Horned Frogs at all, and in the end I think they will be very lucky to even cover.
SP+ line: UGA -12.2
Vegas line: UGA -12.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Four. The first was the 1941-42 Orange Bowl, which Georgia won 40-26. That game was apparently Georgia’s first ever bowl game. They didn’t meet again until the 1980 season, when TCU traveled to Athens and lost 34-3. They did the same eight years later, losing again 38-10. Finally, they most recently bet in the 2016 Liberty Bowl, where UGA won 31-23. As a side now, I miss when UGA went to Liberty Bowls.
Last bowl game: At twenty-six straight bowl games, Georgia owns the longest active bowl streak. The first game in the streak was the 1997-98 Outback Bowl, a 33-6 win over Wisconsin. Last season they beat Michigan 34-11 in the Orange Bowl, and then defeated Alabama in the CFP Championship Game 33-18. Most recently, they defeated Ohio State 42-41 in the Sugar Bowl. TCU bowled for the first time since the (in)famous 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, where they lost 10-7 to Cal. (Though they were eligible in 2020.) They got here by defeating Michigan 51-45.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

Bowl Games 2022: Happy New Year!

It turns out that while the modern reason that the New Year’s Day bowl games are played on January 2nd when the 1st is a Sunday is due to the NFL, it originally dates to early Rose Bowls when the it was thought to be uncouth to play a football game on a Sunday.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Friday, December 30

Noon: North Carolina State vs. Maryland (Mayo Bowl @ Charlotte, NC; ESPN): We’ve got a renewal of an ACC rivalry to kick off New Year’s Day weekend (see below). For the purposes of this game, these are two teams with less than ideal ends to their seasons. I like Maryland’s talent at the skill positions to take them over the top.
SP+ line: Terps -4.6
Vegas line: Terps -1.5
Watchability tier: II
Previous meetings: As you might expect from two teams that founded three conferences together, they’ve played a few times. 70 times, to be exact. The first meeting was in 1909, a 31-0 NC State win. In 1917 they met for the first time as members of the South Atlantic Intercollegiate Athletic Association. That was apparently boring, so they left and helped found the Southern Conference in 1921. In 1953 they left as a group again and founded the ACC. Then it turned out Maryland was kind of broke, so they left the ACC in 2014 for the greener pastures of the Big Ten, where we’re now robbed of the fanbase that absolutely the most vicious to Duke basketball. Anyway. They played somewhat sporadically before the ACC, but they played every season from 1956 to 2013. The Terps also got the last laugh with a 41-21 victory in that 2013 game, but overall the series is tied 33-33-4.
Last bowl game: The Wolfpack last played in a bowl game in the 2020-21 season, where they lost to Kentucky in the Gator Bowl 23-21. But they were supposed to play in the Holiday Bowl last season against UCLA, but it didn’t happen due to COVID. The Terps beat another former (abliet briefly) ACC team in last season’s Pinstripe Bowl, with Virginia Tech on the wrong side of a 54-10 margin.
Announcers: Anish Shroff and Brock Osweiler

2:00: Pittsburgh vs. California-Los Angeles (Sun Bowl @ El Paso, TX; CBS): Well, in my bowl predictions I tried to manifest a rematch of the (in)famous 2008 Sun Bowl that saw Oregon State beat Pitt 3-0, but I only got it half right. The Bruins figure to be more of a threat on offense here, even though I think Pitt will score, unlike in that game.
SP+ line: UCLA -6.4
Vegas line: UCLA -6
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: These teams have met 14 times, and surprisingly none in a bowl game. In fact, since all 14 were in Pitt’s independent days, these were 14 straight meetings from 1958 through 1972. UCLA holds the all-time series lead 9-5, but UCLA won the last game 38-28.
Last bowl game: Pitt is an interesting case, as they were eligible but did not play in a bowl in 2020. Assuming they had, this would be their fifth bowl game in a row, dating to 2018 where they lost 14-13 to Stanford in the Sun Bowl. Last season, they lost 31-21 to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl. UCLA was supposed to play in last season’s Holiday Bowl against NC State, but they didn’t, so their last bowl game was the 2017 Cactus Bowl, where they 35-17 to Kansas State.
Announcers: Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson

3:30: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina (Gator Bowl @ Jacksonville, FL; ESPN): South Carolina ended the season about as hot as you can possibly be, by crushing Tennessee’s playoff dreams once and for all and then beating this biggest rival. I think this Notre Dame team also had a good end-of-season as well, but USC’s offense just seems to be humming.
SP+ line: USC -3.1
Vegas line: Irish -2
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Four, all as regular season home-and-homes in 1976, 1979, 1983, and 1984. Notre Dame leads the series 3-1, but the Gamecocks won the last matchup 36-32.
Last bowl game: The Irish have now been to six bowl games in a row, dating to the 2017-18 Citrus Bowl, where they beat LSU 21-17. Last season they lost 37-35 to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. The Gamecocks beat UNC in last season’s Mayo Bowl 38-21.
Announcers: Taylor Zarcour and Matt Stinchcomb

4:30: Wyoming vs. Ohio (Arizona Bowl @ Tuscon, AZ; Barstool.tv): I would really recommend patronizing Barstool, so you don’t have to watch this game. My general theme of picking against the Mountain West so far has been working, so I’ll keep it rolling.
SP+ line: Ohio -4.3
Vegas line: Ohio -1
Watchability tier: I
Previous meetings: Just two, and both in the regular season. Wyoming won 34-33 in 2007, and then 21-20 in 2008.
Last bowl game: Wyoming won last year’s Potato Bowl over Kent State 52-38. Ohio’s last bowl game was the 2019-20 Potato Bowl, a 30-21 win over Nevada.
Announcers: Jake Marsch, Dan Katz, and Dave Portnoy

8:00: Clemson vs. Tennessee (Orange Bowl @ Miami Gardens, FL; ESPN): THE ORANGEST BOWL! I suspect one of these teams won’t be wearing orange and I’ll be sad, but this could be an interesting game. Well, if Clemson can do anything on offense now that DJ has been demoted. While Hendon Hooker won’t be available for the Vols, Joe Milton will attempt launch some balls to Havana, and that’ll at least be fun to watch. (Especially if any of them find his receivers.) I like the Vols here.
SP+ line: Vols -6.3
Vegas line: Clemson -6.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: There’s been 19 meetings all-time between these two, though all but three of them took place before the end of World War II. The first was a 6-6 tie in 1901. In 1975 and 1976 they met in the regular season. The last meeting was a 27-14 Clemson win in the 2003-04 Peach Bowl.
Last bowl game: The Tigers have now been to eighteen (18!) straight bowl games, dating to the 2005 Champs Sports Bowl, a 19-10 win over Colorado. If they’d gone bowling in 2004 when they went 6-5, this would be their twenty-third straight game, but it’s not. They beat Iowa State in last season’s Cheez-It Bowl, 20-13. The Vols lost last year’s Music City Bowl to Purdue, 48-45.
Announcers: Joe Tessitore and Greg McElroy

Saturday, December 31

Noon:

  • Iowa vs. Kentucky (Music City Bowl @ Nashville, TN; ABC): I believe the over/under on this game is 31. That’s really low. Like, Army-Navy low. Kentucky has a bunch of offensive players hurt or out, and Iowa is… Iowa. This could be bad. About the only way it won’t be is an outside chance that it’s a “horrible but you can’t look away” sort of game. I’m picking Kentucky because I think they’ll at least attempt score, but Iowa is of course the Bane of college football when it comes to low scoring games (“You merely adapted to the under. I was born in it, molded by it” – Brian Ferentz, probably.) So I won’t be surprised either way.
    SP+ line: Kentucky -0.4
    Vegas line: Iowa -2
    Watchability tier: II
    Previous meetings: It’s a bowl game rematch! Kentucky beat Iowa 20-17 in last season’s Citrus Bowl.
    Last bowl game: This would be Iowa’s tenth straight bowl game, dating to a 21-14 loss to LSU in the 2013-14 Outback Bowl, however, they didn’t play in 202 despite at 6-2 record. Last season they lost 20-17 to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. For the Cayuts, this will be their seventh bowl game in a row, dating to the 2016 TaxSlayer Bowl, a 33-18 loss to Georgia Tech. Last season, they beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, 20-17.
    Announcers: Matt Barrie and Louis Riddick
  • Kansas State vs. Alabama (Sugar Bowl @ New Orleans, LA; ESPN): Bama doesn’t have an opt-outs as far as I know, so that would seem to be trouble for K-State. That said, the Cats have played up to everyone all season, and I’m not sure why they’d stop now. I think Bama’s superior talent will win the day, but I think it’s going to be a good one.
    SP+ line: Bama -7.6
    Vegas line: Bama -3.5
    Watchability tier: IV
    Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
    Last bowl game: K-State won last year’s Texas Bowl over LSU, 42-20. The Crimson Tide will mark this as their nineteenth straight bowl game, dating to a 20-16 loss to Minnesota in the 2004 Music City Bowl. Last season, they beat Cincinnati 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl but lost the College Footbal Playoff Championship Game to Georgia, 33-18.
    Announcers: Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, and Tom Luginbill

4:00: Michigan vs. Texas Christian (Fiesta Bowl @ Glendale, AZ; ESPN): And so here we are. Welcome to the playoff. I think this game is likely to be the less interesting of the two. TCU has has a fantastic season, and it took a very good K-State two attempts to beat them. The Horned Frogs are not a solved problem by any means. However, I think the Wolverines will have the best defense they’ve faced, and it doesn’t seem TCU has a lot of great ideas on offense outside of “Max Duggan doin’ stuff”. Michigan also has an offense that is essentially “K-State, but better” and I expect they will just lean on TCU until the dam breaks.
SP+ line: Michigan -9
Vegas line: Michigan -7.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Wolverines lost last season’s Orange Bowl to Georgia, 34-11. TCU is bowling for the first time since the (in)famous 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, where they lost 10-7 to Cal. (Though they were eligible in 2020.)
Announcers: Sean McDonough and Todd Blackledge

8:00: Georgia vs. Ohio State (Peach Bowl @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): It’s fair to say I want Georgia to lose. Perhaps the best thing about this playoff is that with Alabama not in it I can be fully on an “anyone but Georgia” train. And here’s the thing: Georgia is more vulnerable this year. Now, this is an extremely relative thing, but what a lot of us in the college football universe are looking at is, well, you know, about the only thing that beat that Best Defense Ever last season was Bryce Young and his fantastic receivers. If there’s anything Ohio State has, it’s a talented QB with some receivers that’ll play on Sundays (including a literal son of a hall-of-famer). I still think Georgia’s going to win, but I won’t be surprised if Ohio State has a gameplan that at least makes them sweat.
SP+ line: UGA -5.3
Vegas line: UGA -6.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Just one, a 21-14 Georgia win in the 1992-93 Citrus Bowl.
Last bowl game: At twenty-six straight bowl games, Georgia owns the longest active bowl streak. The first game in the streak was the 1997-98 Outback Bowl, a 33-6 win over Wisconsin. Last season they beat Michigan 34-11 in the Orange Bowl, and then defeated Alabama in the CFP Championship Game 33-18. The Buckeyes have now been to ten straight postseason contests, dating to the a 40-35 loss to Clemson in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl. Last season they beat Utah in an absolute cracker of a Rose Bowl, 48-45.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit

Monday, January 2

Noon: Illinois vs. Mississippi State (ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa, FL; ESPN2): I’m sort of thinking this will be a blowout, but I have next to no context how the Bulldogs will react to losing their coach. It’s a tough thing to predict. But throwing 70 times without running it would be the best way to honor Mike Leach that I can think of.
SP+ line: Illinois -0.5
Vegas line: UIUC -1.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: Two, and they were very spread out. Illinois won 27-0 in 1923, and slightly more recently lost 28-21 in 1980.
Last bowl game: The Illini last made a bowl game in 2019, where they lost 35-20 to Cal in the Redbox Bowl. The Bulldogs have been to twelve straight bowl games, dating to a 52-14 win over Michigan in the 2010-11 Gator Bowl. Last season they lost 34-7 to Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl.
Announcers: Dave Flemming and Rod Gilmore

1:00: Purdue vs. Louisiana State (Citrus Bowl @ Orlando, FL; ABC): The Boilermakers will have an interim coach and are going through a bit of a transition, while LSU is a bit more established even with a disappointing end of season. I generally like the Tigers here.
SP+ line: LSU -8.2
Vegas line: LSU -10.5
Watchability tier: III
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: The Boilermakers beat Tennessee 48-45 in last season’s Music City Bowl. This would’ve been the twenty-third straight bowl game for LSU, which would be the third longest active streak and date to the 2000 Peach Bowl, where they beat Georgia Tech 28-14. However, they did not bowl in 2020 despite a 5-5 record. Last season they lost 42-20 to K-State in the Texas Bowl.
Announcers: Bob Wischusen and Dan Orlovsky

1:00: Southern California vs. Tulane (Cotton Bowl @ Arlington, TX; ESPN): I think USC is going to win. But… Tulane sort of seems like a slightly less talented Utah, and the Utes absolutely hammered USC for four quarters in that Pac-12 Championship Game. I think this one will feature some nice throws by USC and then baffling long runs by the Green Wave. In other words, I think it’ll be fun.
SP+ line: USC -4
Vegas line: USC -1.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: Three, and they all date to when Tulane was more of a football power than they are now. The first was, appropriately, in the 1932-33 Rose Bowl, where USC won 21-12. Tulane won in LA 27-13 in 1942, but USC returned the favor by winning 20-13 in New Orleans in 1946.
Last bowl game: USC went 5-1 in 2020 but did not go to a bowl game, so their last bowl appearance was a 49-24 loss to Iowa in the 2019 Holiday Bowl. The Green Wave lost the 2020 Potato Bowl to Nevada 38-27.
Announcers: Mark Jones, Robert Griffin III, and Quint Kessenich

5:00: Pennsylvania State vs. Utah (Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, CA; ESPN): And finally the Grandaddy of them all. I said all the year the Nittany Lions are very thoroughly the third best team in the Big Ten, and sure enough, they’re here in Pasadena while the two better teams are in the Playoff. The Utes, of course, are fantastic about dragging talented teams to their level, and I more or less think that’s what will happen here. I suspect it’ll also be good for them if the forecast holds and it winds up raining during the second half.
SP+ line: Penn St -1.1
Vegas line: Utah -2.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: This is the first meeting between these teams.
Last bowl game: Penn State lost to Arkansas in last season’s Outback Bowl, 24-10. This would normally be Utah’s eighth bowl appearance in a row, dating to a 45-10 win over Colorado State in the 2014 Royal Purple Bowl. However, they did not play a bowl game in 2020 despite their 3-2 record. They were just overwhelmed in the second half by Ohio State’s elite wide receivers and lost last season’s Rose Bowl to Ohio State, 48-45.
Announcers: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit