Welcome back. The predictions are up, and we’re only three weeks away now from the final set of predictions. I did attempt to search for news, but there’s not much action going on there yet except for a few stray beat writers and the rest of the Internet’s so-called “predictions”. Pschaw.

A quick note on methodology: remember, this is not a snapshot, but rather predictions on where teams will be at the end of the season. Hence why we’ve got Alabama and Oregon in the title game.

Quick note before we begin: with their 24-17 victory over Florida Atlantic, Navy reached the 6 win mark and accepted a bid to the Fight Hunger Bowl.

BCS
Let’s start at the top. I am still projecting Oregon, if they win out, to pass Kansas State in the BCS. I doubt at this point they will actually completely pass Kansas State in the computers, but rather just gain enough ground to let their #2 ranking in both human polls buoy them to the top.

Other than Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State, at-large locks for BCS bids are likely Florida (provided Georgia doesn’t lose to Auburn this weekend and they do lose to Alabama in the SEC title game), Florida State (provided they win the ACC title game, or with an at-large bid assured if they beat Florida), Oklahoma (if they win out). I am still agreeing with some other analysts that the Rose will play nice and take Oklahoma, which they will probably be more inclined to do if Nebraska is the Big Ten’s champion. This would allow the Fiesta to match Notre Dame against Kansas State. At this point, if Florida does not lose to Florida State (or anyone else), they will likely head to the Sugar Bowl as Alabama’s replacement. If they do stumble, then you could see Georgia or South Carolina there.

Louisville, or whoever bothers to win the Big East, is the last automatic qualifier. This leaves a mess for the last possible at-large spot. As noted last week, Boise State was in position to do this by finishing ahead of Nebraska in the BCS standings, but they lost to San Diego State. There is a two-team-per-conference limit, so none of the various SEC teams littering the top 14 can qualify. A strong candidate, if everything were to be done today, would be Oregon State, but I have them losing twice to end up at 9-3. I also have Stanford losing to Oregon, putting them at 9-3. USC could have as many as five losses at this point if they end up playing in the Pac-12 title game. This leaves only one potential 1 or 2 loss team: Clemson. Provided Clemson doesn’t pull a Clemson against Maryland or NC State, they will head into their game against South Carolina at 10-1. If they win, they will wrap up an at-large bid. At this point, given the rest of my projections, even if they lose to the Gamecocks they will still be 10-2 and more palatable than, say, a 10-2 Rutgers. For those of keeping score at home, yes, this would be the first time ever the ACC has sent two teams to the BCS. They would likely be selected by the Sugar, leaving Louisville to play FSU in the Orange.

ACC
With Clemson off to the promised land, this leaves the rest of the ACC’s bowl partners in rather unenviable positions. The Chick-fil-a would almost certainly go with an 8-4/5 Miami, and the Russell Athletic Bowl snapping up NC State. I have no other ACC teams projected to finish with winning records, with Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke all finishing 6-6. (Well, UNC should finish 8-4, but they’re on sanctions.) And even then, that’s with a rather heavy dose of optimism on my part, because I’m sure not crazy about our chances against Carolina this weekend. Either way, I’m sending VPI to the Sun, us to the Belk, and Duke to the Music City.

Big 12
I was able to put Texas back into the Cotton Bowl, but I couldn’t quite arrange things to put Texas A&M into the game as well. I also put Texas Tech into the Alamo over Oklahoma State, but everything else proceeds in order from there. In a rarity, the Big 12 will actually have enough teams, even with two of them going to the BCS.

Big East
Please, someone, anyone, win this thing, but preferably a team that hasn’t lost to anyone from the MAC.

Big Ten
Iowa’s loss to Indiana (Indiana!) this past weekend probably wrecks the chances of everyone in the Legends division qualifying. Unfortunately, I still don’t have Indiana getting to 6-6, so Wisconsin remains the only eligible team from the Leaders. Minnesota can thank their incredibly soft out-of-conference scheduling for getting them to the new Car Care Bowl despite going 2-6 in Big Ten play.

Pac-12
The infighting in the conference wrecks their chances of getting two BCS teams, unless Stanford or Oregon State upset Oregon in the next few weeks. Otherwise, I actually have Arizona as a 7-5 team with nowhere to go. The projections for at-large teams in other bowls is a total crapshoot until officials of the affected bowls start talking about who they’re looking at (which one of the reason I start looking for news), so for now I’m shipping the Wildcats off to Shreveport to make up for a lack of ACC teams.

SEC
Thanks to generous out-of-conference schedules and some really awful teams at the bottom of the conference, the SEC should get 5 teams to the 10-win mark this year. I had to put 10-2 LSU in the Cotton over 9-3 Texas A&M, but that could still change in the coming weeks. I also have Tennessee limping to 6-6 ad a Liberty Bowl bid, though they could also go to the Compass Bowl.

Everyone Else
It does look like we will avert the shortage of teams catastrophe. It just seems to “work out” every year, but someday it probably won’t. As much as I like doing these projections, frankly if we had 5 less bowls I don’t think anyone would notice. Also, with Boise not making the BCS, this pushes 6-6 New Mexico out of the Mountain West affiliated bowls. Along with 6-6 Western Michigan, they could be the only two eligible teams sitting at home this year.

As usual, things will look different next week. After the excitement of last weekend, the marquee game for the top teams this weekend will be Alabama-Texas A&M. But, hey, more on that later in the week.

It’s that time again. Predictions are up at the usual place. Things have changed a bit since the first two weeks. Heading into the final month of the season, most teams only have four games left and the picture starts to become clearer for many teams in hovering the 5 to 7 win mark. Of course, we also have new complications due to thinks like Oklahoma and USC losing again. So let’s start with the BCS.

BCS
Like many other prognosticators, I still have Alabama and Oregon as my #1 and #2. Oregon’s schedule (plus the Pac-12 title game) should help them out in the computers. Notre Dame should slip in the machine rankings over the final weeks of the season, especially if USC loses again (which they will at least once). Kansas State will be a tougher nut to crack, but Oregon will remain #2 in both human polls if they win out, and again, they have the benefit of playing a 13th game. (Though it is worth noting the Pac-12 title game and Kansas State will both be on Saturday, December 1, so there isn’t a “one of the teams didn’t play the past week” advantage.)

Florida may have actually improved their chances of going to a BCS game by missing out on the SEC title game. I still think they will win out, including a win over my predicted ACC champion Florida State. If Florida only has one loss and does not play in the SEC title game (thus meaning they won’t lose to Alabama), I still like them to go to the Sugar.

The Rose Bowl is a bigger question. Nebraska’s win over Michigan this past weekend makes them the Big Ten frontrunners, so I’ll put them in the Rose. However, with an at-least two-loss Nebraska there, does the Rose gain anything by taking Notre Dame, or will they defer to the Fiesta and pick-up Oklahoma? Nebraska-Oklahoma was once one the biggest rivalries in the sport and the two teams have not played since 2010. Either way, with USC’s loss to Arizona State this weekend, it does not look like there will be a Pac-12 runner up worthy of BCS consideration.

If the Rose does pass on an undefeated or 1-loss Notre Dame, then they will definitely snapped up by the Fiesta to play a jilted Kansas State. I actually have ND going undefeated now, but if everything breaks as explained above it won’t matter.

New to the predictions this week is Boise State. Boise sits at #19 in the current BCS rankings, three spots away from the promised land provided they don’t lose and finish ahead of the Big Ten champion (which they currently will). Boise is split in the human polls, with the coaches putting them at #14 and Harris at #17. It stands to reason they’ll pick up a couple spots in the Harris poll if they don’t lose, and maybe even pick up a couple more spots in some of the computers (two of which don’t even have them in their top 25’s). Either way, if Boise makes it them they will go to the Orange and Louisville will be in the Sugar.

Possibly even more interesting is what happens if Boise doesn’t make it, however. I’m not entirely sure they will, and I very, very nearly put Clemson in the Sugar. It could happen, especially if they beat a now-depleted South Carolina in their last game of the season. The BCS feels almost like it was counting on always having at least two Big Ten and two SEC teams every year. With Ohio State and Penn State on probation and entirely too-many SEC teams at the top of the polls, this creates a logjam of teams near the fringes that could get in.

ACC
FSU is in the driver’s seat of the ACC. Less clear is just who the heck will win the Coastal. I have Miami pulling it off, finally setting up the FSU-Miami ACC title game that the conference bigwigs envisioned all those years ago when they set up the divisions and picked Florida cities for the original title games. Even as title game losers, I like Miami for the Russel Athletic Bowl. Clemson and NC State should follow into the Chick-fil-a and Sun Bowls. I have three Coastal at 6-6, including Virginia Tech, Duke, and probably entirely too optimistically at this point, Georgia Tech. I put those three into the Belk, Independence, and Music City, respectively.

Big 12
I finally have to give up on my dream of Texas playing Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. I project Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to finish ahead of the Longhorns in the conference, which just makes the notion too infeasible at this point. I put TTU in the Cotton, and then the Cowboys into the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Texas is relegated to the Alamo. The Holiday Bowl could be fun again with my projected matchup of West Virginia and Southern Cal. I also have Iowa State and TCU making in at 6-6, but I put Baylor at 4-8.

Big East
Well, Louisville hasn’t lost to a MAC team yet so they’re the Big East frontrunners now. New this week is 6-6 Syracuse sneaking in, but I couldn’t put them into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Big Ten
I have Nebraska going 10-2, but remember, Wisconsin just as easily win the Big Ten title game, which I have them entering at 8-4. Either way, the Badgers may be the only eligible team from the Leaders division that even makes it to 6-6 or better, though Indiana or Purdue could do it, at least in theory. The Legends compensates by getting everyone eligible, even Minnesota, which thanks to a generous schedule can go 2-6 in the Big Ten and still make a bowl.

Pac-12
USC’s loss this past weekend makes it very difficult for me to project them beating Oregon and Notre Dame. I now have Arizona State winning the Pac-12 South. Stanford could finish 9-3 but I don’t think losing to Oregon in November will help their BCS chances. I actually even have Utah sneaking in at 6-6, after upsetting Cal this past weekend.

SEC
I already talked about the very top of the SEC, so let’s focus on the runners up. I don’t have Georgia or South Carolina losing again, except for the former in the SEC title game. Nonetheless, I put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl because South Carolina played there last year. Everything else was pretty much going down the line. I do have Tennessee sneaking at 6-6. Hey, they’ve done it before.

That’s pretty much it for this week. Next week I’ll incorporate news into the projections, which especially helps sort out my guesses for bowls that won’t get their contractually obligated teams (read: the Military and BBVA Compass bowls).

They’re available at the usual place.

No commentary this week, other than that I seemed to have less of a need for the emergency pool of teams. Will this hold up next week? We’ll find out soon enough.

In the meantime, why yes, I will take my BCS jokes with a side of Blade Runner.

To all of you getting bent about the BCS, I say to thee: I’ve seen things you wouldn’t believe.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

I’ve seen Iowa State beat Oklahoma State on a Friday night. I watched Pitt’s helmets glitter in the lights as they beat West Virginia.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

All of these moments will be lost in time, like tears in the rain. In the BCS, it is always time to die.
— edsbs (@edsbs) October 22, 2012

References: 1) 2011 Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
2) 2007 Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia