Monthly Archives: November 2025

Bowl Games 2025: Week 2

The bowl predictions page has been updated.

Once again, we’re six teams short, so I had to use both the transitioning schools (Delaware and Missouri State) and four 5-7 teams (in order: Northwestern, Auburn, Rice, and Central Florida). Once again, since I predict the games out using SP+, there is a potential that any team I have projected to finish 5-7 finds one more upset and qualifies normally. For example, Mississippi State is projected to lose out to Missouri and Mississippi, but they’re about a 10 point underdog to Mizzou, which is well within the realm of possibility. (And the Egg Bowl is, of course, the Egg Bowl.)

We’ll get more clarity when the newest CFP rankings are released tomorrow. The main question is if they will put in a three loss Alabama: I have the Tide losing to Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game. At some point, that loss to Florida State has to come home to roost, right? For now I have Utah as the last at-large bid to the playoff.

The other point of contention is going to be the status of the ACC champion. As the joke goes, when the ACC killed divisions (and therefore the notoriously volatile Coastal division), they just made everything Coastal. If everything goes to my projections, the Virginia will finish with one conference loss and Louisville would win the tiebreakers between the two-loss ACC teams (which in addition to the Cards I have as Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Southern Methodist, and Duke). This prevent the nightmare scenario of a 7-5 Duke making it to, and winning, the ACC Championship Game, in which case the ACC would probably miss the playoff entirely.

This Weekend in College Football: Week 11

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon:

Brigham Young @ Texas Tech (ABC): This is the game of the year in the Big 12, so naturally it kicks off at 11am local time. Expect these two to meet again, though. For now, I like the Red Raiders at home.
Indiana @ Pennsylvania State (FOX): I expect Indiana to continue to do Indiana things here.
Georgia @ Mississippi State (ESPN): I expect Georgia to continue to do Georgia things here.
James Madison @ Marshall (ESPN2): JMU.
Colorado @ West Virginia (TNT): WVU.
Southern Mississippi @ Arkansas State (ESPNU): Southern Miss is… back apparently? I like them here at least.
Southern Methodist @ Boston College (ACCN): Ponies.
Temple @ Army (CBSS): Army?

1:00:

Ohio State @ Purdue (BTN): Purdue is better than anyone expected… but they’re probably still going to go 0-fer in the Big Ten. C’est la vie.
The Citadel @ Mississippi (SECN+)
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan (ESPN+)
Missouri State @ Liberty (ESPN+)

2:30: Maryland @ Rutgers (FS1): Maryland’s slow-moving collapse figures to continue.

3:00:

Florida International @ Middle Tennessee State (ESPN+)
Jacksonville State @ Texas-El Paso (ESPN+)
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic (ESPN+)
Charlotte @ East Carolina (ESPN+)
Louisiana Tech @ Delaware (ESPN+)

3:30:

Texas A&M @ Missouri (ABC): Mizzou is good, but clearly a step below the SEC elite this season. Which means I isn’t like their chances here.
Oregon @ Iowa (CBS): Iowa will do everything they can to drag the Ducks into the mud. I think they’ll be able to figure it out but I won’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes notch their best B1G win in a while here.
Iowa State @ Texas Christian (FOX): TCU?
Syracuse @ Miami (ESPN): I don’t even know what to say about the Canes at this point, well, other than I don’t think they’ll lose here.
Kansas @ Arizona (ESPN2): Zona?
Duke @ Connecticut (CBSS): [insert basketball season joke here] Duke all the way here.

4:00:

Auburn @ Vanderbilt (SECN): Hugh Freeze won’t lose to Diego Pavia for the fourth year in a row because he got fired on Sunday.
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State (ESPN+)

4:30:

Stanford @ North Carolina (The CW): Bill figures to get his second ACC win.
Washington @ Wisconsin (BTN): It’s so dire in Camp Randall right now, and they announced this week that they’ll retain Luke Fickell. UDub should win easily in front of this dis-spirited team and crowd.
Texas State @ Louisiana (ESPN+)

6:00: Air Force @ San Jose State (FS1): Spartans.

7:00:

Wake Forest @ Virginia (ESPN): Now that we finally got got, UVA is now the ACC’s most “getting away with it team”. Wake is good enough to get them, and I think they will.
California @ Louisville (ESPN2): Louisville, ACC standard bearer? It’s more likely than you think.
Florida State @ Clemson (ACCN): It’s insult to injury that the two most dominant ACC teams from like 2014 to 2022 are afterthoughts on the ACC Network. Both of these teams need to really do some deep introspection in the off-season. As for this game, Clemson I guess?

7:30:

Louisiana State @ Alabama (ABC): Bama all the way here.
Navy @ Notre Dame (NBC): It’s a classic rivalry, but Navy doesn’t stand a chance.
Florida @ Kentucky (SECN): This game, oh my god. Florida will win. Outside of that, literally anything could happen.
Nevada @ Utah State (CBSS):. Aggies.

9:00: Nebraska @ California-Los Angeles (FOX): Huskers?

9:30: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Colorado State (FS1): UNLV.

10:00: Sam Houston State @ Oregon State (The CW): I think the Beavers have this one.

11:00: San Diego State @ Hawaii (Spectrum)

Bowl Predictions 2025: Week 1

I’ve been doing bowl predictions since 1999. While there’s a lot more bowl games now (oh, and a playoff!), I still do my best to predict who goes where.

There’s essentially two phases to this. This phase is trying to figure out who goes where. At this point in the season, I am projecting each team’s record using SP+. Since most teams have 3 to 4 regular season games left, there’s a lot of wiggle room. In particular, doing it this way means that early on I’m usually short a few teams. As upsets happen and SP+ gets more in-season data, things usually even out. Right now, I need 76 teams, and I’m five short. This means I had to include FCS to FBS transition teams Delaware and Missouri State, and a well as 3 5-7 teams based on their APR.

Starting in 1999, and up until now, I had used Microsoft Expression Web (neé FrontPage). However, the software is several years old and it doesn’t run well anymore. I had also wanted some various modern web niceties (like displaying correctly on phones). So suffice it to say, the predictions have a different look this year. I’ll be continuing to tweak it, or if I can’t get it to work the way I want, I’ll just revert to the old system. For now though, enjoy.