Yearly Archives: 2025

This Week in College Football: Week 1

Leave a reply

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Thursday

5:30: Boise State @ South Florida (ESPN): It’s starting to feel real. With the Braves pretty thoroughly Out of It™, I’ve (yes, I’m switching back to first person here, deal with it) been looking forward to the start of the season. Of course, that’s also because one of the biggest games of the weekend also involves the Jackets. Anyway, in this one, good on USF for scheduling this Boise but boy howdy I do not like their chances.

6:00:

  • Ohio @ Rutgers (BTN): Someday, Rutgers is going to have to figure out how literally anyone else other than Greg Schiano can make Rutgers even competent. Fortunately for the Scarlet Knights, that hasn’t happened yet.
  • Lafayette @ Bowling Green (ESPN+)

7:00:

  • East Carolina @ North Carolina State (ACCN): This is a low-key sorta rivalry, in that ECU absolutely hates the Tobacco Road schools. I don’t like their chances to win, but in terms of “game most likely to feature a brawl” this weekend, this is almost certainly #1.
  • Delaware State @ Delaware (ESPN+)
  • Saint Francis @ Louisiana-Monroe (ESPN+)
  • Wyoming @ Akron (ESPN+)
  • Jacksonville State @ Central Florida (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Central Arkansas @ Missouri (SEC)
  • Elon @ Duke (ACCNX/ESPN+)
  • Tennessee-Martin @ Oklahoma State (ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Buffalo @ Minnesota (FS1): Okay, Thursday doesn’t have a lot of intrigue so far. Let’s see what we have next…
  • Stephen F. Austin @ Houston (ESPN+)
  • Alabama State @ Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN+)

9:00:

  • Nebraska vs. Cincinnati (@Kansas City, MO): Oh hey there! Nebraska, are you feeling good about this season? Well, you had better hold serve in a nominal neutral site game (but will totally be 90% Cornhuskers) against a Bearcats team that figures to be spicy.
  • Miami @ Wisconsin (BTN): On Wisconsin, and on to Friday.

Friday

6:00: Tarleton State @ Army (CBSS)

7:00:

  • Western Michigan @ Michigan State (FS1): This is definitely a MAC vs. B1G game that is happening.
  • Appalachian State vs. Charlotte (@Charlotte, NC; ESPNU): It’s a little head-scratching that Charlotte is playing this game in the Panthers’ stadium and not next week’s game against UNC. Either way, the 49ers will not be favored in either contest.
  • Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest (ACCN): It’s been a tough road so far in FBS for Kennesaw, and it’s going to be tough once against in 2025.
  • Bethune-Cookman @ Florida International (ESPN+)

7:30:

  • Western Illinois @ Illinois (Peacock)
  • Wagner @ Kansas (ESPN+)

8:00:

  • Auburn @ Baylor (FOX): There may be no hotter seat in college football at the start of 2025 than the one on the Plains. And the reason isn’t so much that Auburn doesn’t have talent (though they’ve been weirdly bad at QB as of late), it’s more that they don’t play well. This is a bit of a statement game for both teams, but one gets the feeling it’s going to be a bit bigger of a deal for the Tigers. I like the Bears.
  • Georgia Tech @ Colorado (ESPN): Whoo boy. It’s been a minute since we came into a season with what I would call “a reasonable amount of hype”. This isn’t a 2015-style situation where we’re coming in ranked, but I would say the consensus is that we’re favored in this one. We certainly have a lot less roster turnover than Colorado, who is coming into the season down their two (well, three, really, depending on how you count Travis Hunter) most important players and the raft of transfers that has so far marked Coach Prime’s tenure. Is this the year the Buffs are finally fielding Power 4-quality offensive and defensive lines? Maybe! But also, maybe not! We’re going to find real quick on Friday night who is moving who in the trenches, that I feel pretty good about saying.

9:00: Nevada-Las Vegas @ Sam Houston State (CBSS): I don’t know if UNLV is good, but I like them over SHSU.

10:30: Central Michigan @ San Jose State (FS1): It’s year two for Coach Ken in Silicon Valley, and honestly I think they’re going to be okay? This one is certainly manageable for them.

Rating the 2025 Non-Conference Slate

Leave a reply

About the Ratings

Each offseason, my brother and I rate every Power 5 team on the basis of how excited you’d be to see that team on your non-conference schedule. The possible ratings are “no rating”, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1. “1” is the best, as evidenced by the list of 22 teams that earned a 1 this year: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Mississippi (new for 2025), North Carolina (new for 2025), Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Southern Cal (new for 2025), Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, and Wisconsin.

How does each conference fare in terms of the ratings? Well, let’s see:

  1. SEC (0.70 average rating)
  2. Big Ten (0.55)
  3. ACC (0.38)
  4. Big 12 (0.375)

That’s mostly what you’d expect, except for maybe the ACC there. At any rate, let’s dive right into the teams. (FCS teams are in italics.)

Continue reading →

This Weekend in College Football: Week 0

Leave a reply

Welcome to the traditional opener before the opener. The usual out-of-conference scheduling review is nearly ready and will go up early next week. In the meantime, enjoy this this curated selection of pre-Week 1 games.

As usual, all times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Noon: Iowa State vs. Kansas State (“Farmageddon” @ Dublin, Ireland; ESPN): We’re starting off with a probable banger. Naturally, we enjoyed last year’s Ireland game, but as far as exporting a rivalry goes I’m not sure they could’ve done much better. That said, I like K-State a lot here.

6:30: Fresno State @ Kansas (FOX): The Sunflower State is well represented in Week 0, with KU hosting the usually frisky Bulldogs. It’ll be interesting to see if KU and QB Jalon Daniels have their mojo back after a disappointing, injury filled 2024. If they do, then this one sets up pretty good for KU.

7:00: Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky (CBSS): The earlier games are likely to be a lot more fun than the later games. Unfortunately here WKU is still one of the better CUSA teams and SHSU is… not.

7:30: Stanford @ Hawaii (CBS): Stanford is likely to be the worst P4 team this season (it’s a close competition with Northwestern), so this figures to be their “bowl game” essentially. Also, Hawaii is also kinda turbo-bad, so it may also be the Cardinal’s best chance at a win.

Bowl Games 2024: Epilogue

And that’s that.

It’s hard to call the inaugural 12-team playoff anything but a success. Maybe it’s a tad odd all of the top-four bye teams lost, but overall it was a ton of fun to watch. And once again, the Ohio State Buckeyes take advantage of a new playoff format to win a national title they otherwise wouldn’t have qualified for.

I finished with a 27-19 record in the bowl games, and the overall stats have been updated. I’ve been at this a long time. I will personally turn 40 years old soon, and it’s hard not to get reflective. I’ve been predicting bowl games since I was 14 and writing this site since I was 21. My life has changed tremendously since then (especially in the past couple of years). Sports have been a constant. I’m writing this during the Swiatek-Keys semi-final in the Australian Open (my favorite tennis tournament and one that I hope to attend someday). Last summer I finally attended an Olympics, visiting Lyon, Saint-Etienne, and Marseilles to see our national soccer teams.

I tend to think of the year broken up by whatever sport is on. January through the Super Bowl is playoff football, tennis, college basketball (at least in years where Tech is good, which, well, isn’t this year). March is… Madness. I love baseball, but I don’t start to get excited until Opening Day. Not much marks the time for me like a baseball season’s phases: the opening months before Memorial Day (the traditional mark where I start paying attention to the standings), the beginning of summer to the All-Star break, the dog days of August. College football is important, but in the current Braves era I don’t really get completely in until sometime in October. Fall Saturdays are huge for me, and though in recent years I’ve found it more difficult to just block a whole day (dang friends and hobbies) chances are my phone is streaming a game. (Obviously, Tech is still appointment viewing for me. It does help we’re a lot more fun to watch these days, I have to admit.)

Last season I wrapped up with a short paragraph about the change in the sport. Change it did. West Coast teams in the Big Ten may never not be weird. I’m joking a lot less than I’d care to admit when I say things like “Maryland is obviously still in the ACC”, and those four teams fit in much less well than the Terps. I may never get over Washington State and Oregon State getting screwed. And none of this really even approaches the Bay Area schools and SMU in the ACC, though at least we did get #CalTwitter exposed to a nationwide audience. (Also Cal-Miami may be one of the games of the year, even if it wasn’t the preferred outcome.)

There were good things, too. The Arizona schools being in the Big 12 feels spiritually correct, and Colorado re-joining most of their former Big 8/12 brethren is obviously correct. While too many rivalries are in peril, the Holy Way being a yearly game again is correct. The playoff, even with the whining about the byes and the first round games, was fantastic.

As usual, things will be slower around here these parts for next, oh, seven months or so. But look for me around August 23rd, as we’ll have at least two potential bangers out of Stanford at Hawaii, Fresno State at Kansas, and, oh yeah, Farmageddon live from Dublin, Ireland. See you then.

Bowl Games 2024: Final

The bowl page is updated. And for one last time this season:

All times Eastern and all predictions wrong.

Monday, January 20

7:30: Ohio State (#8) vs. Notre Dame (#7) (College Football Playoff Championship @ Atlanta, GA; ESPN): And finally, we’re here. I don’t really have a problem with this matchup. We have the best team in college football since Week 2 in Notre Dame and probably the most talented (on paper) team in Ohio State. Both suffered bizarre losses this season, but there can really be no doubt that both teams belong here.
So what to make of the actual game? Suffice it to say, I think the Buckeyes will win handily. The question is when it’s going to happen. Will Notre Dame’s lack of a downfield passing game mean they sink if they get behind early, a la Oregon? Or will this be tight until late, with the Buckeye defense making another big play to cement the game, a la Texas? The path for the Irish is very narrow: I’d have to think they need to keep it a tight game, get pressure on Will Howard, and hope for a titled turnover margin. I think the Irish will be able to move the ball a bit, but I just think it will take too long when Ohio State is more than capable for scoring in batches.
SP+ line: Ohio State by 5.9
Vegas line: Buckeyes by 8.5
Watchability tier: IV
Previous meetings: These teams have met eight times. The first was an 18-13 Notre Dame win in 1935. They played again in 1936 (a surely thrilling 7-2 Notre Dame win) and then didn’t meet again for 60 years. In 1995, the Buckeyes dominated 45-26, and did the same when they returned to South Bend the next season. They then met in the 2005-06 Fiesta Bowl, another Ohio State win. A decade later they met again in Arizona. Finally, in 2022 and 2023 they played another home-and-home, with the Buckeyes again prevailing in both. The result is a 6-2 Ohio State lead all-time.
Last bowl game: In the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame and Penn State fought it out, with the Irish prevailing via a last-minute field goal 27-24. In the Cotton Bowl, the final score was 28-14 for Ohio State over Texas, but the ‘Horns certainly gave the Buckeyes the most fight of any of their playoff opponents so far.
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe, and Laura Rutledge